I've guestimated around 2000 bucks, but it really depends on your bulk order ability, YMMV.

-Wes

Probably would cost YOU as much as a new pin since you will likely be paying retail and buying only one or a few of everything, plus all that shipping.

and tools, trial and errors.

I'm not sure there's enough information for a good estimate on that scale. For example, 1500 pop bumper assemblies would be a considerable different number, assuming your hypothetical table only had one, than 4500 assemblies for the same table if it had 3. Factor in additional costs of multi-level pfs (with associated metal work) as well as other unique features (special function toys), and its really not a simple question of how much to build 1500 ambiguous pinball machines.

Perhaps if you provided an example table (with commentary on any differences), figures for the 1K -1.5K volume could be better estimated.

I've heard that OZ is barely making any profit (if any after R&D), just to give you a ballpark figure. Stern is probably making between $1,000-$1500 profit a game (depending on model) if you figure about 1200 sold of all 3 in the run, and then 3 pinballs released a year. That's about 4.5 million/year, which should just barely cover staff and facility cost, and any loans they are still trying to pay off.

The predator boys up in michigan are selling for $5k, so it can't be much higher than $4k.

Probably a good way to estimate is this:
$715 (PRoc combo system)
http://www.pinballcontrollers.com/index.php/products/starter-kits

$350 (full make-your-own-cabinet)
http://virtuapin.net/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=2&zenid=fd4a23efd97a1468e03b563271f6631b

$80 (backglass, translite, lift trim)

$500 (playfield, routed, inserts, playfield printed or overlayed)

$100 coindoor

$50 legs

$50 side rails

$25 playfield glass

$100 (vinyl cabinet artwork)

Now start adding up all your components from Macro for playfield components (posts, flipper assemblies, pop bumpers, VUK, plunger, bulbs holders, targets, switches, buttons). You'll have to estimate costs for wireform or vacuum formed ramps, etc.

Figure at bare minimum, you're looking to spend at LEAST $3000 in parts, and that's not including tools, labor, R&D

I'm thinking it will cost a bit more than buying a completed, production game.

Only STERN or JJP would know that answer. People could postulate all the want about it on here.