Don't think I'd pay any more than $3,500.
It's reeeeeeally dirty. Shooter lane and Sam hole are pretty beat up. Has Gandalf the Grey and not the original Gandalf on Shadowfax. The target below the crystal has been replaced. It should be white. Maybe it's just the photos but it looks like there's pitting/rust on the rails and on the base of Balrog. I have a feeling this one's been rode hard and put away wet.