LOTR was produced in several runs, beginning in 2003.
There were ~5,100 units of the Standard Edition (SE) made. The most recent run was a Limited Edition (LE) run of 500 units made around 2009-ish? It had several upgraded components (e.g., gold trim and armor, mirrored backglass, extra clear coats on the playfield, shaker motor optional, limited edition plaque with game number), but no "Armies of Middle Earth" figurines, because the figurines were no longer available.
http://www.ipdb.org/search.pl?any=lord+of+the+rings
The LE models typically sell for more than the SE models, because of the upgrades and rarity (limited run).
Regarding price for the SE, click the link next to the Lord of the Rings icon at the top of this thread, where it says, "GAMES LINKED TO TOPIC". That will call up details about the game, including estimated value...
"Estimated value: $4990 - $5810"
That's an average price range, so it's a good starting point, but it must be qualified by actual condition.
"Routed" games tend to be on the low end of the average price range, and "HUO" tend to be on the high end of the average price range. Actual CONDITION, however, is much more important than those two descriptive words, and actual prices can be lower or higher than that average price range, depending on condition and modifications. I've seen routed games that looked pristine, and HUO games that looked like crap. Also some mods add to a games value, if the buyer is interested in the upgrade, but can often be removed by the seller if the buyer isn't interested in paying for the upgrade.
Mike Nogle's price on that Great American Pinball (GAP) advertisement is definitely on the high end of the price range for a LOTR SE, but he is a retailer with business overhead costs that need to be covered. If you buy from an individual owner, you'll probably get a lower price, but price is almost always negotiable, regardless of whether you're buying from an individual or a retailer. Having said that, not knowing the actual condition of the game in Mike's ad, it's hard to judge how fair that price is without knowing more details. Photos would definitely help.
For reference, I recently bought a nice "players condition" LOTR manufactured in December 2003 from a fellow Pinsider. It had been previously routed, but had gone through several private owners hands since then. It was almost bone stock, but a board had been replaced (different serial number), and had just a few mods: upgraded flipper coils, and white rubbers. The playfield was in excellent condition (i.e., good color registration, Mylar installed, little wear), and all mechanical and electrical aspects of the game were in working order. The cabinet had some dings and scratches, which is typical for a previously routed game. I paid $4,800 for it in October 2014, and then I started modding like crazy.
I have installed the following mods to date:
- Color DMD Display (ColorDMD) - $400
- PDI optical glass (playfield and translite) - $360
- LED OCD board (Herg) and LEDs for inserts and G.I. (Comet) - $230
- Path of the Dead mod (Pinball Refinery) - $220
- Shaker motor (Stern) - $160
- Upgraded speakers and subwoofer (Flipper Fidelity) - $140
- Custom topper (Laseriffic) - $135
- Palantir mod v5 - Retina Burner (Jay's Pinball) - $125
- Interactive Undercabinet LEDs and Speaker Lights (Rock Custom Pinball) - $102
- Custom shooter rod (Marco Specialties) - $100
- Cliffy protectors (Cliffy) - $69
- Dual cooling fans (Coolerguys) - $50
- Flipper rebuild kit (PinballLife) - $45
So my base game was $4,800 ($190 lower than the estimated price range), and I have over $2,100 of mods installed (making my total cost > $1,000 higher than the estimated price range).
Yeah, I know. That's absolutely crazy, but I love this game, and it plays like a dream. I plan to keep it, so whether or not I get all of my money back on a future sale is not really relevant to me.
The point I'm trying to make here is that the price of a game is highly dependent on the actual condition of the machine and the mods that have been installed, so you can see how the price range could swing pretty wide from low to high, depending on those specifics.
Hope this helps. Good luck with your search. Let us know what you eventually buy, if you end up getting one.