The downturn that video game people are all in a tizzy about right now is simply because they are not making games that the public cares about right now. The entertainment world of business is like this, and I have worked within it and found it fascinating to see how a lot of people handle it -- the belief is that people have $XX for movies, $XX for games, $XX for amusement parks and so on, and those number never change.
The reality of the situation is that if the entertainment being offered resonates with the general public, they will find a way to purchase it. Look at the pinball industry - when the industry was making titles that didn't resonate with either operators or collectors (CSI, 24, WoF), the industry was about to go under. Now, really expensive LEs for titles are selling out in a heartbeat. Why? The themes and games are resonating better.
Can you predict what will resonate the best? Nope. But you can't blame things not resonating with a complete industry crash.