(Topic ID: 203700)

deeproot Pinball thread

By pin2d

6 years ago


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#18451 2 years ago

I didn't want to think about this so much (although it's been a nice distraction from some very serious sad news in my extended family)...but this statement

>We want to keep communication open. However, it seems sometimes that these periodic updates don't convey the progress that is happening, nor does it solve the real goal of delivering games. At this point we do not expect to send another mass update about RAZA until after the July 4th weekend.

This is a very revealing comment in my opinion. Robert is the one writing these updates! If they don't convey progress is happening, that is your fault. It is no one else's! Every poorly communicated update that leaves more questions than answers is written by Robert. And his solution is to just ignore the problem? Not try to be better about updates, not try to assuage existing and potential future customers, just saying well fuck this noise. And the way to improve could be as simple as a picture of a bunch of Ned sculpts in a box...

People who make stuff have a lot of pride in how they do it. They want to show it off. Robert seems like the kind of guy who wants to show off.

It's really hard to not just assume he's given up because of how many signs point in that direction.

#18452 2 years ago
Quoted from Roostking:

Update from pre-order thread.
If dr goes under, its our fault!

And we'll be responsible for the unemployment of the staff... that weren't even hired in the first place "because of labor shortages"

#18453 2 years ago
Quoted from SunKing:

I think skipping any mention of the UL certification is the biggest red flag. If he'd completed that, you know he would have announced it in this update. And if it's not certified, how can you be 100% certain what parts you may need to order...

Guessing whatever part shortages he has keeps them from doing that and the EMI testing. If so, that means a test, the testing lab writes a report, then if there's an issue - a possible retest.

#18454 2 years ago

I'm just curious, as I rarely post in this thread, but read it every day. Does that make me responsible for Deeproot's failures and the loss of jobs as well? Would these posts exist if there was no one to read them? Is the fact that I did not order a RAZA make me a contributor to their failure?

These are things that will keep me up an night if I don't get an answer. Maybe they can tell me in the preorder thread?

14
#18455 2 years ago

Well remember we are dealing with egotist narcissists here - whatever happens will be the COMMUNITY'S fault, not theirs.

"The community sadly didn't show the support we needed to continue" - that's a coping mechanism to avoiding dealing with the fact YOU are the problem.

Oh and John. Especially John. Seriously, can we get rid of that guy for good now?

#18456 2 years ago
Quoted from blueberryjohnson:

Also, where's our ul certification status update?? A soap opera this good can't just drop its #1 storyline

Yeah, this one is a head scratcher. A serious impediment to selling a single game just vanished? If it was done, there would be a victory lap in the update.

#18457 2 years ago

God this would be such a sad story if it wasn't so damn entertaining. Watching Captain Hubris fail. Thanks Pinside, for sinking the ship! They couldn't have done it without all of us.

What do you think - 6 months left? 4 months? Drag this out past July 4th?

#18458 2 years ago

I’m really disappointed. If you are going to go out do so with a bang not a whimper. Be the best at something: “Most expensive and catastrophic failure in pinball ever”. Quietly closing down does not suit this story at all.

#18459 2 years ago
Quoted from benheck:

Well remember we are dealing with egotist narcissists here - whatever happens will be the COMMUNITY'S fault, not theirs.
"The community sadly didn't show the support we needed to continue" - that's a coping mechanism to avoiding dealing with the fact YOU are the problem.
Oh and John. Especially John. Seriously, can we get rid of that guy for good now?

We will never truly be rid of john.

Once deep root collapses there’s going to be a chorus of pinsiders begging someone - ANYONE - to hire him. Someone will be desperate enough for attention to do it. The next Suncoast perhaps?

“He just needs to be managed!”

#18460 2 years ago

After July 4th....Humm, could it be because July 5th is the first business day of Q3?

14
#18461 2 years ago

As a preorder on Raza, I'm quickly joining your camp after the latest info that said nothing which is bullshit. Just pull the plug if thats the case since the new excuse is a labor shortage. From what I understand San Antonio has a lot of unemployed people. All Hail Spooky. They live up to there commitments.

#18462 2 years ago

With the government confirming UFOs are real, we have a better chance of actually meeting Ned in person than ever playing a pinball machine with his picture on it.

#18463 2 years ago
Quoted from Stemmy:

As a preorder on Raza, I'm quickly joining your camp after the latest info that said nothing which is bullshit. Just pull the plug if thats the case since the new excuse is a labor shortage. From what I understand San Antonio has a lot of unemployed people. All Hail Spooky. They live up to there commitments.

Get your money out ASAP.

That said, labor shortage is a very real thing (pent-up manufacturing demand + shortage of people because so many staying on endless UE) but in Robert's case it's just the latest excuse.

#18464 2 years ago

If DR pulls the plug on RAZA, it won't be to start building food truck, goonies, title tbd, or any of the twenty others. If they pull the plug, you'll have a better chance of buying a hydrofoil from Andrew than a The Who from Robert.

Just an FYI since I'm seeing some comments popping up speculating this could be the new master plan. Don't forget, before Dr went all in on RAZA, they were going to offer claimants credit toward RAZA, magic girl, aiw, or other unnamed launch titles.

#18465 2 years ago

Some Octo Manufacturing pictures along with this announcement would have been more convincing. Deeproot's claim of transparency has never once materialized.

#18466 2 years ago

“At this point we do not expect to send another mass update about RAZA until after the July 4th weekend.”

Anybody know what year?

#18467 2 years ago
Quoted from Mr68:

Some Octo Manufacturing pictures along with this announcement would have been more convincing. Deeproot's claim of transparency has never once materialized.

Robert has explained time and again they will not do this because it would expose trade secrets that would give other manufacturers a better chance of being able to keep up with deeproot

#18468 2 years ago
Quoted from blueberryjohnson:

Robert has explained time and again they will not do this because it would expose trade secrets that would give other manufacturers a better chance of being able to keep up with deeproot

That's the same excuse Theranos used.... To hide their miracle machine that didn't (and couldn't) exist.

#18469 2 years ago
Quoted from benheck:

That's the same excuse Theranos used.... To hide their miracle machine that didn't (and couldn't) exist.

Then if not pinball machines, hopefully we'll at least get an hbo documentary out of deeproot

27
#18470 2 years ago

Fyre Festival got at least 3 docos and they wasted less money than Deeproot.

Their customers got cheese sandwiches at least which puts them ahead of the RAZA owners club thus far.

#18471 2 years ago

I'm curious to see if people actually get refunds.

#18472 2 years ago
Quoted from blueberryjohnson:hopefully we'll at least get an hbo documentary

#18473 2 years ago

I’m staying in. The update was trash. If they get machines out at all my best guess would be 4th quarter.
Gonna be ride or die with it though. Guess we’ll see.

#18474 2 years ago
Quoted from Mr68:

Some Octo Manufacturing pictures along with this announcement would have been more convincing. Deeproot's claim of transparency has never once materialized.

I’m going to disagree here. They have been quite transparent. Nothing meaningful has been accomplished. No machines have been built. And if you want your money back ask now while we still have some. If they were being deceitful you’d see photoshopped pictures of machines being built. But crap like that would likely come back to haunt them legally, and RM knows it. Far better to let the house of cards fall without embroiling them in unwinnable and draining lawsuits. And it isn’t going to be us going after them. We are annoying gnats. It’s going to be their investors (the same thing that ultimately brought Theranos down) trying to pry out any penny for the $1 they put in. Company failures, even well understood and non deceitful failures, take years off ones life under the pile of legal claims that follow

15
#18475 2 years ago
Quoted from NashtyFunk:

I’m staying in. The update was trash. If they get machines out at all my best guess would be 4th quarter.
Gonna be ride or die with it though. Guess we’ll see.

The guy who owns the company is practically BEGGING you to take a refund.

Are you sure about this? I know it's been an exciting rollercoaster ride, but maybe it's time to get off while the park is still open?

#18476 2 years ago

Without getting too personal, I’m just saying it’s worth taking a flyer on it. The reward outweighs the risk and I’ll either be pleasantly surprised or feel nothing and move on.
If I backed out and they did ship games, I’d be pissed because I had no good reason not to stay in.
They’re going to have to cancel my order or send my machine.

Quoted from CrazyLevi:

The guy who owns the company is practically BEGGING you to take a refund.
Are you sure about this? I know it's been an exciting rollercoaster ride, but maybe it's time to get off while the park is still open?

#18477 2 years ago

Yeah looking at the collection of some people who are still in, I don’t think they give a shit about losing $600 or whatever.

I just don’t want to hear complaints from a few certain people if they never get anything.

38
#18478 2 years ago

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#18479 2 years ago
Quoted from NashtyFunk:

I’m staying in. The update was trash. If they get machines out at all my best guess would be 4th quarter.
Gonna be ride or die with it though. Guess we’ll see.

Hey so, can you send me money for a pinball machine? I’ll also send you nothing, since you seem to be cool with that concept. I’ll enjoy your money. Win win! Thanks!

#18480 2 years ago

What is the deposit amount people have in with this thing?

#18481 2 years ago

if it's only $600 I can see why people might stay in. I thought many paid in full.

#18482 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

I thought many paid in full

As I recall some did so they could jump the line.

#18483 2 years ago

There needs to be at least the chance of a return there.

I try to think of it like “I lost enough in the market today doing nothing. If I lose a pinball machine it’s a lot less impact than that.”

Markets will bounce back and I’m still optimistic that deep root gets 40-50 games out the door eventually. There’s enough money and ego in this project to fully abandon it.

Quoted from Rarehero:

Hey so, can you send me money for a pinball machine? I’ll also send you nothing, since you seem to be cool with that concept. I’ll enjoy your money. Win win! Thanks!

#18484 2 years ago
Quoted from Mr68:

As I recall some did so they could jump the line.

I'm here too much..I'm getting deja vu that I had this exact discussion 3 months ago.

#18485 2 years ago
Quoted from NashtyFunk:

There needs to be at least the chance of a return there.
I try to think of it like “I lost enough in the market today doing nothing. If I lose a pinball machine it’s a lot less impact than that.”
Markets will bounce back and I’m still optimistic that deep root gets 40-50 games out the door eventually. There’s enough money and ego in this project to fully abandon it.

While I appreciate your honesty, they haven't updated the UL issue and without getting past that, 1 billion dollars isnt going to help(Well maybe lol) They have spent untold millions to this point and have nothing. The $$$ well cannot be limitless and its going to be 10x more expensive to try and source an even more limited amount of parts.

Side note, If dr really intended to make games, they could have shown a few screenshots of parts, of a line ,of a building. That would have gotten the pre-order folks all excited and kept the hope alive. At least he didnt do that, although we used to praise dr for not taking pre-order $$$, until they started taking pre-order money, so I guess anything is possible at this point.

#18486 2 years ago
Quoted from NashtyFunk:

There’s enough money and ego in this project to fully abandon it.

That’s actually the problem. Too much money spent already to ever make any back ever. What’s the point of continuing?

#18487 2 years ago
Quoted from benheck:

...Predaturd...
...That was a huge steaming pile of shit. Seriously. That game sucked.

Made me laugh out loud!

Short story here. One of my friends was in for a Predator early deposit. I was at TPF when they brought the Predator games to show off. It looked like someone hooked up some old vacuum cleaner parts to a shitty stripped down Williams C tier game. While visiting in the hallway, I was telling my buddy that it looked like some old System 11 game. I didn’t know he was standing right next to and talking with Kevin or whoever the predator guy was at the time. I guess I can forgive myself since he turned out to be a total scammer.

#18488 2 years ago
Quoted from Nevus:

Made me laugh out loud!
Short story here. One of my friends was in for a Predator early deposit. I was at TPF when they brought the Predator games to show off. It looked like someone hooked up some old vacuum cleaner parts to a shitty stripped down Williams C tier game. While visiting in the hallway, I was telling my buddy that it looked like some old System 11 game. I didn’t know he was standing right next to and talking with Kevin or whoever the predator guy was at the time. I guess I can forgive myself since he turned out to be a total scammer.

Never apologize for telling the truth.

#18489 2 years ago
Quoted from benheck:

labor shortage is a very real thing

Yeah, and so are shitty wages.

#18490 2 years ago
Quoted from Robotoes:

Yeah, and so are shitty wages.

Does dr pay shitty wages? They appear to have some real talent on the payroll and some big time designers as well.

#18491 2 years ago
Quoted from Robotoes:

Yeah, and so are shitty wages.

Honestly, wages and lack of hiring has nothing to do with this. If they had all the parts and the UL and EMI certs...the entire engineering team would go into overdrive 24/7 to ship SOMETHING, even if it was ONE pin. Just look at the TBL progress which is pretty amazing, really.

I recently retired from RF design after 30 years. It's not uncommon for the design team to piece meal the initial designs together for EMI testing, etc. It should be correct, just not built by the factory. We haven't even seen that yet.

20
#18492 2 years ago

Again I just don’t get it. The only rational conclusion anyone can come to is that they aren’t building anything. As in ever. Is there a playfield ? Who is making it ? Certainly not DR Why not show off 20 of them coming off someone else’s line ? Is there a cabinet ? Who is sourcing it ? Why not show off 10 of those ? Backglass ? What about 5 of those ? Heck how about 3 harnesses built in house ? Anything … a bucket of solenoids maybe ? “We are having issues sourcing parts” is just a load of crap. The bigger question is have you sourced anything, as in anything at all ? This isn’t just mismanaged. A team of three people could build one a week or at least start putting sub assemblies together. It is very reasonable to conclude at this point they haven’t even gotten that far, and very likely have no intention of doing so.

And let me be clear I know of what I speak. My startup is exactly where DR is and has been at it just as long. You dig yourself out one device build at a time. This applies even if your first 10 devices are 5X your eventual projected build cost. You get units in the field so that you can be sure they function as intended and that you don’t have some major design or build oversight. You show your customers the process you are going thru -not just say we are working on it.

11
#18493 2 years ago
Quoted from pookycade:

Again I just don’t get it. The only rational conclusion anyone can come to is that they aren’t building anything. As in ever. Is there a playfield ? Who is making it ? Certainly not DR Why not show off 20 of them coming off someone else’s line ? Is there a cabinet ? Who is sourcing it ? Why not show off 10 of those ? Backglass ? What about 5 of those ? Heck how about 3 harnesses built in house ? Anything … a bucket of solenoids maybe ? “We are having issues sourcing parts” is just a load of crap. The bigger question is have you sourced anything, as in anything at all ? This isn’t just mismanaged. A team of three people could build one a week or at least start putting sub assemblies together. It is very reasonable to conclude at this point they haven’t even gotten that far, and very likely have no intention of doing so.

On the contrary. I think you do get it.

#18494 2 years ago
Quoted from mbwalker:

If they had all the parts and the UL and EMI certs...the entire engineering team would go into overdrive 24/7 to ship SOMETHING, even if it was ONE pin. Just look at the TBL progress which is pretty amazing really.

I recently retired from RF design after 30 years. It's not uncommon for the design team to piece meal the initial designs together for EMI testing, etc. It should be correct, just not built by the factory. We haven't even seen that yet.

I'll add to this (in case Robert is reading this and is still out of touch with how things work). When you DO get UL certification, it's not one and done. Depending on which standard you are testing against, UL will audit your manufacturing every year or possibly every quarter (to ensure you're building them exactly the same as the sample you submitted). Not only do you have to pay for this audit, but if there isn't a UL headquarters nearby that does the type of testing you need, you have to pay to fly someone from a UL office that does.

#18495 2 years ago

The big "tell" is they are doing NOTHING to inspire CONfidence. No photos, no piles of parts, no announcement of vendors, no pics of the assembly line/area. NOTHING. As many have suggested they seem to WANT refunds because then they don't have to build anything. (the "out")

To Rare's point above, it's clear from publicly available data they've spent at least 20 million on this if not the whole 30. Investors want a return on investment. This comes from PROFIT not gross sales. Meaning even with 2k profit per game (which they won't achieve on RAZA, probably built at a loss, again see "they don't want to build them") that means 20k units sold before the investors make a penny back.

Here's a chart I made of Spooky's growth (in units sold per year, roughly) Assuming a logarithmic growth rate it's still 15 YEARS before they've made 20k games total. (and they've never made 2k profit per game) Has JJP even made 20k games total yet? Has CGC?

The numbers JUST DON'T WORK. Again my theory is the plug was pulled months ago after RAZA's pathetic sales and this is all just the "long exit"

chart (resized).jpgchart (resized).jpg
#18496 2 years ago
Quoted from toyotaboy:

I'll add to this (in case Robert is reading this and is still out of touch with how things work). When you DO get UL certification, it's not one and done. Depending on which standard you are testing against, UL will audit your manufacturing every year or possibly every quarter (to ensure you're building them exactly the same as the sample you submitted). Not only do you have to pay for this audit, but if there isn't a UL headquarters nearby that does the type of testing you need, you have to pay to fly someone from a UL office that does.

Thanks toyotaboy. My experience is on the military side of the fence, not consumer. More geared towards EMI emissions so we don't inadvertently jam other MIL systems, and my module was the one that connected to the antenna, meaning everyone looked at me to resolve any radiated EMI issues. Where I worked at, we even had our own EMI lab in-house which helped me to resolve any issues in short order. But if you knew what you were doing, those issue were resolved rather quickly.

If DR had a prototype to flip around the end of last year, maybe that could have been submitted for initial UL/EMI certs. Seems like whatever they had even wasn't close enough to 'cut the mustard'

#18497 2 years ago

Sorry bad math. Comes out to 10k games at 2k profit each. Math still doesn't work.

#18498 2 years ago
Quoted from benheck:

The big "tell" is they are doing NOTHING to inspire CONfidence. No photos, no piles of parts, no announcement of vendors, no pics of the assembly line/area. NOTHING. As many have suggested they seem to WANT refunds because then they don't have to build anything. (the "out")
To Rare's point above, it's clear from publicly available data they've spent at least 20 million on this if not the whole 30. Investors want a return on investment. This comes from PROFIT not gross sales. Meaning even with 2k profit per game (which they won't achieve on RAZA, probably built at a loss, again see "they don't want to build them") that means 20k units sold before the investors make a penny back.
Here's a chart I made of Spooky's growth (in units sold per year, roughly) Assuming a logarithmic growth rate it's still 15 YEARS before they've made 20k games total. (and they've never made 2k profit per game) Has JJP even made 20k games total yet? Has CGC?
The numbers JUST DON'T WORK. Again my theory is the plug was pulled months ago after RAZA's pathetic sales and this is all just the "long exit"
[quoted image]

Dude, its not about facts and common sense in todays day and age, its all emotion. Your posts, knowledge of pin building is useless..

#18499 2 years ago
Quoted from benheck:

The big "tell" is they are doing NOTHING to inspire CONfidence. No photos, no piles of parts, no announcement of vendors, no pics of the assembly line/area. NOTHING. As many have suggested they seem to WANT refunds because then they don't have to build anything. (the "out")
To Rare's point above, it's clear from publicly available data they've spent at least 20 million on this if not the whole 30. Investors want a return on investment. This comes from PROFIT not gross sales. Meaning even with 2k profit per game (which they won't achieve on RAZA, probably built at a loss, again see "they don't want to build them") that means 20k units sold before the investors make a penny back.
Here's a chart I made of Spooky's growth (in units sold per year, roughly) Assuming a logarithmic growth rate it's still 15 YEARS before they've made 20k games total. (and they've never made 2k profit per game) Has JJP even made 20k games total yet? Has CGC?
The numbers JUST DON'T WORK. Again my theory is the plug was pulled months ago after RAZA's pathetic sales and this is all just the "long exit"
[quoted image]

This is the absolute crazy part. Spooky ran like most businesses run, you probably operate at a loss in year 1 and 2 (or better called sweat equity - don’t pay yourself for any work performed), and then slowly try to eeek out a profit year 3 onward. Scale costs to revenues. DR ran like it was in cryptocurrency. Except it wasn’t. Only extreme delusion gets you to see a profit at the end of a $20M investment in pinball. Sure Tesla pulled it off - barely and still with a house of cards below their valuation. But almost nobody else does unless you are operating in a new field with no competitors and exponential growth. But they were in pinball. No new business model, no new innovative product to offer, no 10X lower cost or 10X higher volume. Just generic pinball. And thus in some larger sense it was doomed to failure. The investment other than thru some miracle was never going to be supported by a sustainable revenue model. Look running a startup takes an enormous amount of self confidence as they say and an ability to ignore the naysayers. But somewhere you have to be connected to reality about what the numbers would have to look like to make a profit. It truly seems they never were. To make this work they needed to get something out in the $500K - $2M maybe funding range. Once they went over that the only thing holding back failure was the money remaining in the bank.

#18500 2 years ago
Quoted from benheck:

... This comes from PROFIT not gross sales. Meaning even with 2k profit per game (which they won't achieve on RAZA, probably built at a loss, again see "they don't want to build them")...

100 pins at a 2K profit/pin (won't happen, especially w/the Zidware kicker tossed in) = $200K profit on $20-30 mil investment? Enron is a better bet.

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