(Topic ID: 203700)

deeproot Pinball thread


By pin2d

2 years ago



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#7601 45 days ago
Quoted from Frax:

Right now Spooky is the only one making games at a reasonable price.

Hmm...what?

#7602 45 days ago

Seems to me that CGC is providing a lot of value for the money...

#7603 44 days ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

Stern has a ton of competition - there’s like, 5 other pinball manufacturers now? - and prices have never been higher.
Do you expect this to change when deep root unleashed the RAZA masterpiece?

Volume?

The other 5 are low volume, niche, boutique.

Makes it even more stark, the poor value stern offers. By producing greater volume, costs should be Less. Yep low volume boutique companies can provide good games, but they cost More to manufacture.

It is because sterds only opposition is boutique low production makers that they can get away with their higher boutique level prices. They aren't totally getting away with the relatively s#!t quality though...

Picture if DR made Rick and Morty... and it was the same price as the sterd premium package, but had all the stuff in it that sterd usually misses (mostly quality/value related). So the same or better game than Spookys RaM, but not limited to 750 games. Who knows how many would sell, depends on too many factors, but if production was unlimited... right there is the first time Stern Pinball has potential for any meaningful high volume competition.

The hope is with DR that you could have high volume capability, allowing competetive pricing for the value. This could be meaningful competition for sterd, which would force them to lift their game ... or quit making (poor value) games.

All the intuition, research, and hunches in the world can not predict the future though. So we will have to wait and see. I'm positive.

Should my optimism be misguided... what exactly have I lost, personally?

.... that was a rhetorical question, the answer is Nothing!

#7604 44 days ago

It's cool to what if, blue sky and dream, and keep on believin' all you believers. Keep on believin'. I really hope you're right.

According to deeproot, they are a disruptor. We all want that in pinball, right?

It's hard to predict the future. But disruption can be seen. It has a pattern. Many of us here have observed and directly profited from seeing disruption early enough to make some very healthy profits. I'm one of those people. I study the hell out of disruption. Examples gladly provided.

Odd as this may seem, I'm trying to figure out why deeproot says they're a disruptor. We only have RAZA to go on at this point.

I'm not seeing it in RAZA. Doesn't mean it isn't there. But there are zero indicators.

Let's be honest - RAZA showed no innovation on gameplay, visuals, exterior cabinet or playfield. deeproot could have removed these innovations from the public test, but if so, why bother testing in a public arena? I've yet to hear a compelling reason why you'd blow all that money and ruin your chance for a controlled reveal. If RAZA truly has something wildly visually disruptive, showing it a couple of months earlier isn't going to meaningfully impact anything. Disruptors don't really worry about dinosaurs adapting. Not showing any visual innovations just reinforces my belief that whatever they may be hiding can be easily copied.

Back when pinball had a much larger market size and there were several large companies competing, they each tried to patent innovations that were swiftly copied by their competition. Stern has shown enough sense to adapt and add things like LCDs, LED light shows, and animations. So I'm not so sure that makes them ripe for disruption in the same way that say, Blockbuster, Kodak, Ford, or Sears have been disrupted.

Production costs must at this point have exceeded most other pinball development budgets, so I tend to doubt they've found a way to shave money off of development. Their payroll seems extravagant to me. This is a counter-indicator for success, let alone disruption.

That leaves labor and materials. They might have figured out a way to build a pinball machine much, much cheaper. We wouldn't see that at all from the exterior. They may have found a way to make them last longer, break less or be vastly easier to maintain. I'd love to see any of this. Does that make them a disruptor? Only if they can keep their other costs low, and their savings or improvements are that much different.

Oh and yeah I get that this analysis could come off as grumpy. The truth is, I love analyzing businesses and debating their merits. These things make me happy.

-1
#7605 44 days ago
Quoted from Brijam:

I study the hell out of disruption.

You have clearly missed quite a bit then by the sounds of that lot. Read and soak up Some of the stuff written in this thread from the begining, for one. Listen to every word in every RM interview, openly, as well.

Sounds like that will clear up alot of the bewilderment for you.

Selective hearing can be a curse....

Something that I did do, that brought an alternative light to some of the things said by RM in various interviews, was to listen again but pretend I was Mad Gaz.... he seems to sit interviews and act as though Garry is a Fly on the Wall, which it makes sense to answer questions that way if you consider his mission statement. Gary and "the public" are one in the same to him (whom is listening?). Remember, he aims to keep as much of EVERYTHING secret as possible until company launch. Even that little bit should provide a little clarity for Some of your questions.

I think he would surely have conflicting desires. On the one hand he likely would love to share everything he is doing, and show it. On the more business type hand, he needs to keep certain (most) things secret from stern. I rekon he will be as glad as anybody to have march come by.

I hope my analysis is not wrong, but like everyone I have been wrong before. But everything does add up on this one. It is unique and there is absolutely nothing for comparison, at all. It also helps to remember that infrastructure and everything else is being developed, manufacturing systems and other stuff.... not Just "games".

I do find it all perfectly understandable. Including avoiding pinside (given that he Really wants to share Nothing with Gary).

#7606 44 days ago
Quoted from razorsedge:

Listen to every word in every RM interview, openly, as well.

Listening to any CEO speak is not how I've observed disruption. I look for execution. I continue to look for it in deeproot with interest. I'll be the first to admit I was wrong.

If you've got something concrete to say that shows execution, point to it. It's a bit limp to just handwave and say "read the thread" -- I've been on this thread from the beginning.

The patterns I'm seeing with deeproot may be unique to pinball, but I've seen them before with video game studios and numerous startups I've followed.

#7607 44 days ago

There is no execution that we Know specifically about, yet. .... other than that they have hired a few millions worth of employees, some big names, whom on the whole seem to be Extremely quiet .... or busy, and while under NDA?

So nothing really for you to observe.... except for RMs interviews, and their (Self Proclaimed) half baked example of a mediocre pinball machine - which it appears (as was actually described in an interview around 2018 I think) wound up being this "RAZA PROTOTYPE".

Production RAZA will be noticably different.... if you believe the words of one RM.

The proof will be in the pudding, as they say.

I think it's designed as a hoodwink for stern. Bait and switch. Severely underpromising. Hit the ground running, big PR, movies/apps whatever, and at least 3 pins to ship within a week. He wants Gaz to think that "s#itty RAZA game" is all that will really be there to sell at TPF. . . . but Gaz just is not sure what will be there, he'll just be like "WTF???"

"Mission Accomplished!"

#7608 44 days ago

This expectations topic would probably make a very interesting poll for pre TPF.... given ballanced question/s.

#7609 44 days ago
Quoted from Brijam:

The patterns I'm seeing with deeproot may be unique to pinball, but I've seen them before with video game studios and numerous startups I've followed.

Wouldn't adding Pinball to your equation mean possibly different outcomes?

After all the video games market is much tougher than competition in the Pinball market?

I know they are doing video in studios etc... but that seems to be supporting the pinball alot.

One thing is certain I think.... it will be interesting to watch unfold

#7611 44 days ago
Quoted from razorsedge:

Wouldn't adding Pinball to your equation mean possibly different outcomes?
After all the video games market is much tougher than competition in the Pinball market?
I know they are doing video in studios etc... but that seems to be supporting the pinball alot.
One thing is certain I think.... it will be interesting to watch unfold

Indeed it is much tougher in a saturated market, but if you're lucky enough to go "viral" even one-man operations can make megabucks from mobile gaming.

#7612 44 days ago
Quoted from mbeardsley:

Seems to me that CGC is providing a lot of value for the money...

Goddamit. You're entirely right. I don't know why, I keep forgetting that AFMr and MBr are actually very reasonable for what they are. My brain was just so used to 8-10k prices on those games I can't get it straight.

My bad.

#7613 44 days ago
Quoted from Frax:

Goddamit. You're entirely right. I don't know why, I keep forgetting that AFMr and MBr are actually very reasonable for what they are. My brain was just so used to 8-10k prices on those games I can't get it straight.
My bad.

If this is sarcasm...you're doing it wrong.

#7614 44 days ago

Yeah agree on that question. I am In on R&M and Love Spooky but lets not kid ourselves they to (rightfully) learned what their product and effort would bring. They were just smart enough to design their buying system ala-cart with shakers, decals, etc so it didn't look as expensive. Compared to similar feature offerings a R&M will on average cost at least 8k like most everyone else. Good for them and glad to support their great effort. Best deal to me would however have to go to CGC and possibly AP as they are offering full feature games at very affordable prices even though they could charge more. Especially CGC anyway.

#7615 44 days ago
Quoted from razorsedge:

Production RAZA will be noticably different.... if you believe the words of one RM.

The proof will be in the pudding, as they say.

I think it's designed as a hoodwink for stern. Bait and switch. Severely underpromising.

Can we come back to this quote in 30 days?

#7616 44 days ago
Quoted from mbeardsley:

If this is sarcasm...you're doing it wrong.

No.....it wasn't sarcasm......

*edit* JFC..this is a prime example of what is wrong with this forum these days. I can't even ADMIT I'M WRONG anymore...god damn.

#7617 44 days ago
Quoted from mbeardsley:

Seems to me that CGC is providing a lot of value for the money...

CGC are doing great quality pins for sure. Manufacturing is not all however: 20 years ago, designers and software engineers, designers worked hard on it already for around a year on PF, mechanics, quality... i can’t imagine the cost behind that and the plan was to sell a lot of pins.
I don’t know if it’s fair to compare with current manufacturer like JJP or Stern where they have to work through the whole process with the R&D, quality test and so on...

#7618 44 days ago
Quoted from Frax:

You're right. They've sold thousands of games and proved they can hang with Stern and JJP.
My bad.

Quoted from Frax:

Goddamit. You're entirely right. I don't know why, I keep forgetting that AFMr and MBr are actually very reasonable for what they are. My brain was just so used to 8-10k prices on those games I can't get it straight.
My bad.

Well...it's really hard to tell from the way you post.

The first quote was your sarcasm, and you say the second one wasn't...

#7619 43 days ago
Quoted from razorsedge:

Wouldn't adding Pinball to your equation mean possibly different outcomes?
After all the video games market is much tougher than competition in the Pinball market?
I know they are doing video in studios etc... but that seems to be supporting the pinball alot.
One thing is certain I think.... it will be interesting to watch unfold

I think because entertainment production (not distribution) is by its nature always evolving, this makes it harder for successful entertainment production companies to succumb to disruption, because novelty is key to success in production.

If any company could profitably make a cheaper pinball machine that people would buy in volume, I would expect Stern and others to pivot quickly to offer something similar. Same with any other innovation. Look at LCDs and LEDs and how quickly Stern adopted them.

Quoted from razorsedge:

There is no execution that we Know specifically about, yet.

Apart from the "90% complete" pair of RAZAs that was shown to the public you mean?

Quoted from razorsedge:

I think it's designed as a hoodwink for stern.

This would be like Tesla demonstrating something like a glorified golf cart to potential buyers at a car show instead of their version 1.0 roadster. In other words, insane.

I mean, can you give me a single example in the history of product marketing that a startup company deliberately showed a vastly inferior version of their product to the public in order to lull a vastly larger company into a couple of months of delusion? It's a product launch not the flipping D-day invasion.

#7620 43 days ago

IDK? ...

There's a first time for everything??

#7621 43 days ago
Quoted from Brijam:

If any company could profitably make a cheaper pinball machine that people would buy in volume, I would expect Stern and others to pivot quickly to offer something similar. Same with any other innovation. Look at LCDs and LEDs and how quickly Stern adopted them.

This comparison confuses me as it seems to prove the opposite. Seems like Stern quickly adopted LCD and LEDs to Drastically increase profit and sale price. Yes they needed to conform but I would bet the justification was profit. Lol

#7622 43 days ago
Quoted from mbeardsley:

Well...it's really hard to tell from the way you post.
The first quote was your sarcasm, and you say the second one wasn't...

As my wife would say... "Text sucks." And she's not wrong. The difference to me is that the first one is patently ludicrous precisely because they haven't sold thousands of games or done really anything other than throw a bunch of money around yet.

#7623 42 days ago
Quoted from Yelobird:

This comparison confuses me as it seems to prove the opposite. Seems like Stern quickly adopted LCD and LEDs to Drastically increase profit and sale price. Yes they needed to conform but I would bet the justification was profit. Lol

I think if it wasn’t for JJP and then American Pinball using LCD monitors, Stern would still be selling red DMDs.

It’s possible that the LCDs Stern uses were cheaper than those gawd awful tiny monochrome displays. It’s unlikely that LEDs were cheaper than those incandescent bulbs they used to use.

What’s for sure is that art and programming budgets went way up with LCDs, and also increased with LEDs.

They did it to stay relevant. I guess that’s a profit motive!

#7625 42 days ago
Quoted from Brijam:

It’s possible that the LCDs Stern uses were cheaper than those gawd awful tiny monochrome displays. It’s unlikely that LEDs were cheaper than those incandescent bulbs they used to use.

The LCDs are cheaper, but buyers are now demanding high-definition content which is more expensive to produce and needs much more electronics to drive it. One exception is if you can use existing movie content, but overall I think it's still more expensive.

LED lamps are more expensive, plus buyers now expect color (RGB) LEDs which means electronics to drive three LEDs every place there used to be one. This is further amplified if you replace a single driver for GI with more finely controlled lighting.

The end result is a better experience, just not a cheaper one.

#7627 41 days ago

29

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#7629 39 days ago

Does anyone think they will be showing anything more than just a further along prototype of RAZA?

#7630 39 days ago

I would assume they would have multiple titles for the big reveal. If not, they may not be ready to be a serious player in the pinball manuf. scene.

Quoted from pinlink:

Does anyone think they will be showing anything more than just a further along prototype of RAZA?

#7631 39 days ago
Quoted from jeffspinballpalace:

As Robert Mueller's interview is pertinent to this thread, I will post some highlights. There are plenty of interesting points and comments made, so listen for yourself.
* Playfield will be made of wood and it can take sledge hammer without enduring damage.
* Deeproot will encounter the same manufacturing challenges as everyone else.
* There won't be any great initial awareness that the product is innovative. When you see all of their games and you open them up and see how they go together, you'll see the innovation more clearly. (oh brother).
* Customer may have options for playfield art, cabinet art and customization of the game.
* Robert is waiting to set game pricing until before launch. Won't price it at a discount. Robert maintains he will provide value, but not all at the Stern pro price.
* There may be three levels of every game released. Undefined what this means. (Robert implies that certain models with have more value and indicates more mechs or more software for a higher price and a version without that is lower cost). They will be pricing some games below market and some above market (I see Robert releasing models in all ranges between $4k - $15k).
* Robert says that he does not read Pinside anymore because it is too negative. "Pinside is a sewer" and any feedback is worthless and goes right in the trash. (He said this three times but I wonder why he can't get find any constructive feedback here. He is right that Pinside can be negative, but there is plenty of great observations and analysis from my armchair perspective. His comment is suspect since the stated reason for going to Houston was to get feedback).
* Deeproot has 21 games in design. 13 are 50% and the rest are 15%.
* All games will be different from one another in style, content, target demographic, skill level.
* Zombie Yeti's version of "artwork on Raza was a hack job".
* "Stern is weak".

#7632 39 days ago

LOOOOOOOOOLLL. This is some great alternate reality stuff right here. I wish them all the best and hope they prove me wrong!!

#7633 39 days ago

This thread is just bursting with excitement for the Raza reveal.

#7634 39 days ago
Quoted from pinlink:

Does anyone think they will be showing anything more than just a further along prototype of RAZA?

Some people think that, yes. If the launch even happens, I'm inclined to believe that Deeproot will pull together a whiz-bang launch presentation with tons of fun art and animations. They'll show off gameplay video from RAZA and (possibly) one of JPOP's Magic Girl prototypes, but the livestream will have major technical issues (Deeproot will attribute this to "unprecedented public interest"). Robert Mueller will lead a tour through the building, giving an enthusiastic non-answer about why the manufacturing wing is empty except for some rented laser lights. Bowden will spend 10 minutes making RAZA look easy, because he's Bowden. Their panelists will give extremely guarded answers about the "hundreds" of Deeproot innovations in manufacturing and design. Finally, they'll announce that they're taking preorders for games that will be manufactured "soon".

Then, in 2021, the lawsuits will start.

#7635 39 days ago
Quoted from pinlink:

Does anyone think they will be showing anything more than just a further along prototype of RAZA?

Yes.

#7636 39 days ago
Quoted from ufotofu:

Some people think that, yes. If the launch even happens, I'm inclined to believe that Deeproot will pull together a whiz-bang launch presentation with tons of fun art and animations. They'll show off gameplay video from RAZA and (possibly) one of JPOP's Magic Girl prototypes, but the livestream will have major technical issues (Deeproot will attribute this to "unprecedented public interest"). Robert Mueller will lead a tour through the building, giving an enthusiastic non-answer about why the manufacturing wing is empty except for some rented laser lights. Bowden will spend 10 minutes making RAZA look easy, because he's Bowden. Their panelists will give extremely guarded answers about the "hundreds" of Deeproot innovations in manufacturing and design. Finally, they'll announce that they're taking preorders for games that will be manufactured "soon".
Then, in 2021, the lawsuits will start.

Quite an insightful post and may not be too far from the truth. Lol This scenario is quite believable given JPop past history and Robert’s tendency to run away with his mouth. Remember, this is the same JPop that stiffed Zidware customers.

Raza, if improved from the almost useable prototype shown at Houston expo, still is not going to excite new customers at a price of $8k. Who will actually spend this much money on an unlicensed theme? Haven’t we learned from APs non licensed theme’s dismal sales? Raza will be no different, nor any of DR’s other announced titles, except possibly, Alice in Wonderland. And surely they are not going to license the Disney version of that title. Licensed themes are the only ones that sell these days. Without a top tier license, toys priced at near $10k don’t sell.

DR’s so called launch is going to be interesting to say the least, to see how much they have actually done in the past numerous years of existence.

#7637 39 days ago
Quoted from jimwe5t:

Licensed themes are the only ones that sell these days. Without a top tier license, toys priced at near $10k don’t sell.

I can't say that I agree with this...considering that MM and AFM are usually considered to be the top 2 games (and are non licensed). Having worked on both licensed and unlicensed video games, I can tell you that quite often the licensed ones are "worse" because of the limitations imposed by the license.

Now, as to Deeproot, I think we will simply be shown an improved version of RAZA (mostly new software) and some artwork of other "very innovative" games to be released "soon", with the new version of RAZA shipping "in a few weeks".

I would love to be wrong, and they show a bunch of amazing games...but I don't think that will happen.

#7638 39 days ago

I am definitely pulling for them.

But if all they had in November were 2 very early stage prototypes with place holder art, animations, toys, and call outs and very shallow code. Then do you really expect them to have multiple fully fleshed out games ready to filp just 4 months later?

13
#7639 39 days ago

I think we're all going to be pleasantly surprised. Robert is guilty of hyperbole, for sure, but there are a lot of great people working for Deeproot. Jpop, love him or hate him, produced some of the best pinball machines in history, with some help. His designs are some of my favourites. There are many other talented people on the team. They are not working toward failure and know how to produce good pinball machines. To think that all of these experienced industry people are working toward an absolute failure of a long-overdue reveal is ridiculous. You nay-sayers are straight-up wrong, and you'll see at the reveal.

I personally thought Robert's comments were bullshit and think the guy should get the hell out of promotion. Stick to being the money guy and hire people that know what they're doing. The competition is weak as shit: some ego-kids that drink beer and stream themselves playing pinball.

#7640 39 days ago
Quoted from Tranquilize:

I think we're all going to be pleasantly surprised. Robert is guilty of hyperbole, for sure, but there are a lot of great people working for Deeproot. Jpop, love him or hate him, produced some of the best pinball machines in history, with some help. His designs are some of my favourites. There are many other talented people on the team. They are not working toward failure and know how to produce good pinball machines. To think that all of these experienced industry people are working toward an absolute failure of a long-overdue reveal is ridiculous. You nay-sayers are straight-up wrong, and you'll see at the reveal.
I personally thought Robert's comments were bullshit and think the guy should get the hell out of promotion. Stick to being the money guy and hire people that know what they're doing. The competition is weak as shit: some ego-kids that drink beer and stream themselves playing pinball.

Well said, agree 100%

#7641 39 days ago

I too hope they will be the disrupter Robert claims they are going to become. Bringing pricing down can be nothing but good for us all. If they can modernize manufacturing as well and reduce old high costs areas of pinball, that is welcomed too. If they can put out a loaded machine with all kinds of fun mechs on it for the price of a Stern Pro, look out Stern. Themes won’t matter as much as price and loaded mechs. Love to see octagon manufacturing doing away with costly outdated lines and slow hand soldering all over the machine.

#7642 39 days ago
Quoted from jimwe5t:

Quite an insightful post and may not be too far from the truth. Lol This scenario is quite believable given JPop past history and Robert’s tendency to run away with his mouth. Remember, this is the same JPop that stiffed Zidware customers.
Raza, if improved from the almost useable prototype shown at Houston expo, still is not going to excite new customers at a price of $8k. Who will actually spend this much money on an unlicensed theme? Haven’t we learned from APs non licensed theme’s dismal sales? Raza will be no different, nor any of DR’s other announced titles, except possibly, Alice in Wonderland. And surely they are not going to license the Disney version of that title. Licensed themes are the only ones that sell these days. Without a top tier license, toys priced at near $10k don’t sell.
DR’s so called launch is going to be interesting to say the least, to see how much they have actually done in the past numerous years of existence.

What about their planned title about the Bible? There are like 300,000 churches in the United States and none of them have a single Pinball machine in any of them. Massive untapped market! /s

#7643 39 days ago
Quoted from Tranquilize:

I think we're all going to be pleasantly surprised. Robert is guilty of hyperbole, for sure, but there are a lot of great people working for Deeproot. Jpop, love him or hate him, produced some of the best pinball machines in history, with some help. His designs are some of my favourites. There are many other talented people on the team. They are not working toward failure and know how to produce good pinball machines. To think that all of these experienced industry people are working toward an absolute failure of a long-overdue reveal is ridiculous. You nay-sayers are straight-up wrong, and you'll see at the reveal.
I personally thought Robert's comments were bullshit and think the guy should get the hell out of promotion. Stick to being the money guy and hire people that know what they're doing. The competition is weak as shit: some ego-kids that drink beer and stream themselves playing pinball.

Here here

#7644 39 days ago
Quoted from Rondogg:

What about their planned title about the Bible? There are like 300,000 churches in the United States and none of them have a single Pinball machine in any of them. Massive untapped market! /s

Not true. I put a High Speed in my church for the youth group and the kids love it.

#7645 39 days ago
Quoted from pinlink:

Does anyone think they will be showing anything more than just a further along prototype of RAZA?

Yes...much more. They are not having their launch event and flying people in to show a “further along prototype of RAZA”.

#7646 39 days ago
Quoted from Rondogg:

What about their planned title about the Bible? There are like 300,000 churches in the United States and none of them have a single Pinball machine in any of them. Massive untapped market! /s

Never underestimate a motivated base. Chick-Fil-A isn’t packed all the time because their sammiches are good. They have a massively loyal Christian following.

But, yeah, not expecting that title to dethrone Addams Family

#7647 39 days ago

I see it now, a RAZA in the background, and then a pile of tablets running their latest virtual pinball with multiple tables....

#7648 39 days ago
Quoted from wrb1977:

Yes...much more

Flippable games? Or just more artwork of what's to come?

#7649 39 days ago
Quoted from Tranquilize:

I think we're all going to be pleasantly surprised.

I hope so. Especially for the people going to the private party, and also TPF.

LTG : )

#7650 39 days ago
Quoted from pinlink:

Flippable games? Or just more artwork of what's to come?

Quoted from wrb1977:

Yes...much more. They are not having their launch event and flying people in to show a “further along prototype of RAZA”.

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