(Topic ID: 203700)

deeproot Pinball thread


By pin2d

2 years ago



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#7001 52 days ago
Quoted from Zablon:

You are correct, I was being tongue in cheek regarding how much they pay in taxes and fancy accounting that goes along with it.

LOL, fair

#7002 51 days ago
Quoted from Zablon:

You are correct, I was being tongue in cheek regarding how much they pay in taxes and fancy accounting that goes along with it.

Tax liability and cash flow are two completely different things.

What fancy accounting goes with it?

#7003 51 days ago
Quoted from Methos:

Tax liability and cash flow are two completely different things.
What fancy accounting goes with it?

oh come the f on...

#7004 51 days ago

Taxes?

1b5hth (resized).jpg
#7005 51 days ago
Quoted from Zablon:

Amazon still doesn't make a profit...so...I mean...

This is false. And even when Amazon didn't make a profit years ago, they were pretty close to profitable even when losing money. They basically plowed every free dollar into R&D to make AWS and other products that are huge margin, highly profitable enterprises. That's radically different than Deeproot, who is burning a ton of cash and not yet selling anything.
pasted_image (resized).png

Also, your comment doesn't explain WHY amazon didn't make a profit for a while... Because they were loss-leading in selling regular goods to build a monopolistic position in the e-commerce space. The problem with pinball is the total addressable market of sales is small. It's estimated Stern's revenues were ~$30 million last year. That's just revenues. While the collectible pinball market has grown, it's not growing 50% or 100% per year. Deeproot has spent at least 10 million dollars and not yet ramped up manufacturing. assuming they spend another 10 million to build an assembly line, hire assemblers, and order parts for mass production, they have spent 20 million (which is investor money and for all intents and purposes is debt that has to be paid back). So they owe 20 million and let's say they put out the greatest pinball machine on earth and manage to capture 50% of Stern's market in year 1. That's 15 million in revenues, and assuming a 40% margin, that's six million in profits. So it would take them probably 4 years to break even. That is of course ignoring any dividends or coupons they have to pay back to their investors during that time. A back-to-zero super optimistic scenario takes 4 years. Assuming no mistakes. That just seems like a really risky business plan and requires a lot to go right.

The numbers don't add up to me. And comparing deeproot, who has to make physical pinball machines, to Amazon, who is mostly a software company with a bunch of warehouses, doesn't make sense. The total addressable e-commerce market is essentially a function of the total sales volume of all commerce, which is probably trillions. So yeah, investors gave Bezos a lot of rope because his company sold almost everything. But deeproot's investors have invested ten million to capture a market of what, 50 million in total pinball machine sales across all manufacturers? They're spending an absurd amount of money to capture a tiny market.

#7006 51 days ago
Quoted from Richthofen:

The numbers don't add up to me

This!
Have been having similar thoughts for a while.
You can only sell as many pinball machines as folks want to buy, no matter who you are.
The market is limited.
The strategy of introducing multiple titles at the same time also seems to be a sure way to sell fewer of each, making it more difficult to cover the substantial development cost of each title.

#7007 51 days ago
Quoted from RCA1:

This!
Have been having similar thoughts for a while.
You can only sell as many pinball machines as folks want to buy, no matter who you are.
The market is limited.
The strategy of introducing multiple titles at the same time also seems to be a sure way to sell fewer of each, making it more difficult to cover the substantial development cost of each title.

The trick is to build a multimedia IP empire.

RAZA The Movie: Emma Watson is TOTALLY over this whole Martian invasion thing!

Netflix spinoff series

Video games

Lunch boxes

Apps for your phone.

You guys are thinking small and missing the point. Deep Root will dominate all media. Pinball is but a tiny element in this worldwide takeover. You don’t hire 40 of the world’s best animators just to put out a silly pinball game.

#7008 51 days ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

The trick is to build a multimedia IP empire.
RAZA The Movie: Emma Watson is TOTALLY over this whole Martian invasion thing!
Netflix spinoff series
Video games
Lunch boxes
Apps for your phone.
You guys are thinking small and missing the point. Deep Root will dominate all media. Pinball is but a tiny element in this worldwide takeover. You don’t hire 40 of the world’s best animators just to put out a silly pinball game.

You forgot Raza: The Flamethrower. (The kids love it.)

#7009 51 days ago
Quoted from Richthofen:

This is false. And even when Amazon didn't make a profit years ago, they were pretty close to profitable even when losing money. They basically plowed every free dollar into R&D to make AWS and other products that are huge margin, highly profitable enterprises. That's radically different than Deeproot, who is burning a ton of cash and not yet selling anything.
[quoted image]
Also, your comment doesn't explain WHY amazon didn't make a profit for a while... Because they were loss-leading in selling regular goods to build a monopolistic position in the e-commerce space. The problem with pinball is the total addressable market of sales is small. It's estimated Stern's revenues were ~$30 million last year. That's just revenues. While the collectible pinball market has grown, it's not growing 50% or 100% per year. Deeproot has spent at least 10 million dollars and not yet ramped up manufacturing. assuming they spend another 10 million to build an assembly line, hire assemblers, and order parts for mass production, they have spent 20 million (which is investor money and for all intents and purposes is debt that has to be paid back). So they owe 20 million and let's say they put out the greatest pinball machine on earth and manage to capture 50% of Stern's market in year 1. That's 15 million in revenues, and assuming a 40% margin, that's six million in profits. So it would take them probably 4 years to break even. That is of course ignoring any dividends or coupons they have to pay back to their investors during that time. A back-to-zero super optimistic scenario takes 4 years. Assuming no mistakes. That just seems like a really risky business plan and requires a lot to go right.
The numbers don't add up to me. And comparing deeproot, who has to make physical pinball machines, to Amazon, who is mostly a software company with a bunch of warehouses, doesn't make sense. The total addressable e-commerce market is essentially a function of the total sales volume of all commerce, which is probably trillions. So yeah, investors gave Bezos a lot of rope because his company sold almost everything. But deeproot's investors have invested ten million to capture a market of what, 50 million in total pinball machine sales across all manufacturers? They're spending an absurd amount of money to capture a tiny market.

It was a bad joke. A few of you try to make too much out of nothing.

#7010 51 days ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

The trick is to build a multimedia IP empire.
RAZA The Movie: Emma Watson is TOTALLY over this whole Martian invasion thing!
Netflix spinoff series
Video games
Lunch boxes
Apps for your phone.
You guys are thinking small and missing the point. Deep Root will dominate all media. Pinball is but a tiny element in this worldwide takeover. You don’t hire 40 of the world’s best animators just to put out a silly pinball game.

Seems silly for Disney to have spent all that money for Star Wars and Marvel, when all they really needed was RAZA to dominate all media (and they probably could have gotten it for only 10 or 12 billion $).
I'm dumping my Disney stock now before it becomes worthless.

#7011 50 days ago

Patiently waiting for RAZA

0402790F-D43E-49CD-9A06-5FBFC708BE63 (resized).jpeg
#7012 50 days ago
Quoted from mbeardsley:

Seems silly for Disney to have spent all that money for Star Wars and Marvel, when all they really needed was RAZA to dominate all media (and they probably could have gotten it for only 10 or 12 billion $).
I'm dumping my Disney stock now before it becomes worthless.

you should probably be giving this great advice in the Stock Market Traders? thread !

#7013 45 days ago

seems deeproot's sponsorship on the ifpa site has expired.

#7014 45 days ago
Quoted from chiefbrody:

seems deeproot's sponsorship on the ifpa site has expired.

It was a head scratcher to see the top billing (TPF, Pinburgh, ifpa) promotion going on years ago when they had no product to sell (and still don't).

#7015 45 days ago

I hear they poached JJP's animation guy?

#7016 45 days ago
Quoted from JodyG:

I hear they poached JJP's animation guy?

CA44A881-D807-427A-BB9A-DE26F96869CD.gif
#7017 45 days ago
Quoted from JodyG:

I hear they poached JJP's animation guy?

please.gif

#7018 45 days ago

Seriously, though... when I played RAZA at Houston, the animation was one of the first things to draw me in. Pleasantly surprised.

#7019 45 days ago
Quoted from JodyG:

I hear they poached JJP's animation guy?

Jean Paul? God No,I hope not.

#7020 45 days ago

That would be crazy after the dozens of people they have on payroll.

#7021 45 days ago
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

Jean Paul? God No,I hope not.

Could be wrong but I think they are referring to David Thele. Old news

#7022 45 days ago
Quoted from Yelobird:

Could be wrong but I think they are referring to David Thele. Old news

No, not Thele. This was on the most recent K podcast.

#7023 45 days ago
Quoted from JodyG:

No, not Thele. This was on the most recent K podcast.

If this is true, it’s not because they needed him because we know how deep their visual art department is. It was done solely to hurt JJP.

#7024 45 days ago
Quoted from frolic:

If this is true, it’s not because they needed him because we know how deep their visual art department is. It was done solely to hurt JJP.

The thing about it is, if you are having success with a known manufacturer, what would make you jump ship to go to some new company that hasn't shown a thing in the last two years? Even the promise of a pile of money wouldn't be really smart in the long term if this new, unproven company goes tits up. Could something be going on a JJP? They recently lost their tech support person from what I understand as well. Supposedly GNR is finished already and sitting in a closet until reveal time.

#7025 45 days ago
Quoted from JodyG:

The thing about it is, if you are having success with a known manufacturer, what would make you jump ship to go to some new company that hasn't shown a thing in the last two years? Even the promise of a pile of money wouldn't be really smart in the long term if this new, unproven company goes tits up. Could something be going on a JJP? They recently lost their tech support person from what I understand as well. Supposedly GNR is finished already and sitting in a closet until reveal time.

Well, I could be slow on my rumor consumption. I won't fault anyone for taking a paycheck being offered. I still find it odd that with the graphic department deeproot has (it's strongest asset apparently) that they'd still take someone else on. And that someone else then becomes unavailable for contract work for others.

#7026 45 days ago
Quoted from JodyG:

The thing about it is, if you are having success with a known manufacturer, what would make you jump ship to go to some new company that hasn't shown a thing in the last two years? Even the promise of a pile of money wouldn't be really smart in the long term if this new, unproven company goes tits up. Could something be going on a JJP? They recently lost their tech support person from what I understand as well. Supposedly GNR is finished already and sitting in a closet until reveal time.

Ask all the Williams people Capcom poached. If you're making $100K now and someone offers you a job making $150K, you take it. Sure, its possible they're not around in two years, but I mean its hard to leave 50% of your current salary on the table.

11
#7027 45 days ago

K just retracted this on Facebook. Was never true.

Quoted from JodyG:

I hear they poached JJP's animation guy?

3656C7EC-2E9A-4D93-8E29-E83FF2755388 (resized).png
10
#7028 45 days ago
Quoted from JodyG:

The thing about it is, if you are having success with a known manufacturer, what would make you jump ship to go to some new company that hasn't shown a thing in the last two years? Even the promise of a pile of money wouldn't be really smart in the long term if this new, unproven company goes tits up. Could something be going on a JJP? They recently lost their tech support person from what I understand as well. Supposedly GNR is finished already and sitting in a closet until reveal time.

So I've talked in length with an employee at DR who left a very good position to take a job with DR. I had genuine concerns for this person. This person has been employed with DR for approximately 18 months and through my conversations, I always ask them do they still feel confident in the move they made and the brand, and without hesitation they have answered every time with "without a doubt". So, something is happening behind those walls that has to be promising enough to keep this team intact that includes some prominent figures in the pinball industry.

#7029 45 days ago
Quoted from djreddog:

So I've talked in length with an employee at DR who left a very good position to take a job with DR. I had genuine concerns for this person. This person has been employed with DR for approximately 18 months and through my conversations, I always ask them do they still feel confident in the move they made and the brand, and without hesitation they have answered every time with "without a doubt". So, something is happening behind those walls that has to be promising enough to keep this team intact that includes some prominent figures in the pinball industry.

Or they drank the koolaid.

#7030 45 days ago
Quoted from PismoArcade:

K just retracted this on Facebook. Was never true.
[quoted image]

Just saw this, I'm glad someone nuked this rumor quickly!

#7031 45 days ago
Quoted from PismoArcade:

K just retracted this on Facebook. Was never true.
[quoted image]

Of course not, it came from K-rumor broadcast.
Of which about 70% is conjecture and rumor.

#7032 45 days ago

Also of note, the last interview K had with Robert from Deeproot (Episode 420) was deleted some time ago. Wonder why?

#7033 45 days ago
Quoted from JodyG:

Also of note, the last interview K had with Robert from Deeproot (Episode 420) was deleted some time ago. Wonder why?

I noticed that when I recently went to relisten to it. Hmmmmmm.

#7034 45 days ago
Quoted from f3honda4me:

Or they drank the koolaid.

Getting regular paychecks will make anyone feel good.

However you can't escape that the company hasn't sold a single widget yet.

There's a scene in the TV show "Silicon Valley" where the investor advises them to not make money. As long as they are "pre-revenue" it's all rainbows and unicorns. The moment cash comes in is the moment they become a real businesses and real business metrics apply.

#7035 45 days ago
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

Of course not, it came from K-rumor broadcast.
Of which about 70% is conjecture and rumor.

EVERYTHING on here is 70% conjecture, rumor or bullshit....

#7036 45 days ago
Quoted from JodyG:

Also of note, the last interview K had with Robert from Deeproot (Episode 420) was deleted some time ago. Wonder why?

Add it to the list... that would be a fun website.. all the episodes he's deleted and tries to bury.

22
#7037 45 days ago

Deeproot will never make money if the monthly burn is what Robert says it is. The investors are either forced or too dumb to care. Do the math figure out what the burn is and how many games they would have to sell a month just to break even. give them a 2k profit per machine I don't care its virtually impossible. Now add that monthly burn up for their current existence and spread it over say 10,000 machines a year...it's a joke. Msybe they will compete with the big content providers or video game developers etc lol, give me a break they cant even come close to release dates of one machine let alone the amount Robert was spewing off at the mouth. Also how many people have they pissed off that wont even look at a game or support due to negativity he projects on all other pinball companies. I have never seen a business so poorly launched in my life.

-2
#7039 45 days ago
Quoted from wcbrandes:

I have never seen a business so poorly launched in my life.

So I guess you have accompanied a lot of (producing) business launches?

#7040 45 days ago

I literally don’t care if Deeproot holds people still employed at other pin companies at gunpoint to put out great machines. In the end the machines good or bad will be all that matters. We will know either way very soon.

#7041 45 days ago
Quoted from wcbrandes:

Deeproot will never make money if the monthly burn is what Robert says it is... its virtually impossible... they cant even come close to release dates of one machine...

sounds like robert mueller and deeproot are behind the 8 ball.
deeprootbehindthe8ball (resized).jpg

#7042 44 days ago
Quoted from wcbrandes:

Deeproot will never make money if the monthly burn is what Robert says it is. The investors are either forced or too dumb to care. Do the math figure out what the burn is and how many games they would have to sell a month just to break even. give them a 2k profit per machine I don't care its virtually impossible. Now add that monthly burn up for their current existence and spread it over say 10,000 machines a year...it's a joke. Msybe they will compete with the big content providers or video game developers etc lol, give me a break they cant even come close to release dates of one machine let alone the amount Robert was spewing off at the mouth. Also how many people have they pissed off that wont even look at a game or support due to negativity he projects on all other pinball companies. I have never seen a business so poorly launched in my life.

Reality is about to hit hard Billy.

Investor cash burn for months on end and going on two years now.

At this point i would be praying to get to cash flow neutral to stop the bleeding and then you have time to dig out of a very deep hole.

Not sure how that happens when you float RAZA as game #1.

It's just about $30+ million of Reg D investor money. Roll of the dice. All it is.

#7043 44 days ago
download (resized).jpg
#7044 44 days ago
Quoted from wcbrandes:

Deeproot will never make money if the monthly burn is what Robert says it is. The investors are either forced or too dumb to care. Do the math figure out what the burn is and how many games they would have to sell a month just to break even. give them a 2k profit per machine I don't care its virtually impossible. Now add that monthly burn up for their current existence and spread it over say 10,000 machines a year...it's a joke. Msybe they will compete with the big content providers or video game developers etc lol, give me a break they cant even come close to release dates of one machine let alone the amount Robert was spewing off at the mouth. Also how many people have they pissed off that wont even look at a game or support due to negativity he projects on all other pinball companies. I have never seen a business so poorly launched in my life.

Well said though I think Vonnie D holds the record for best craptastic launch. Deeproot is a close 2nd!!

#7045 44 days ago

Robert clearly said several times that there are no investors and it was all "his" money.

#7046 44 days ago
Quoted from Rondogg:

Robert clearly said several times that there are no investors and it was all "his" money.

Interesting as it looks like he certainly tried.

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/news/2016/08/23/local-investment-fund-betting-on-life-insurance.html

"In 2015, the company issued deeproot Pinball LLC, which offered $6 million of equity with a minimum investment of $25,000 but hasn't reported raising any money for that either."

However, albeit this article is from 2016-

"A San Antonio-based investment company that's offered five different securities without attracting investors since 2013 has hit on one, having raised a few million dollars for a fund that bets on life insurance, records on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission show.

Deeproot Capital Management LLC raised nearly $2.4 million in equity among 19 investors — it had offered $25 million — for its deeproot Growth Runs Deep Fund LLC, records show."

#7047 44 days ago
Quoted from Rondogg:

Robert clearly said several times that there are no investors and it was all "his" money.

And you believe everything Robert tells you? Hows your Raza play?

#7048 44 days ago

10
#7049 44 days ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Not sure how that happens when you float RAZA as game #1.

I also haven't seen anything demonstrated that they are aiming pins at anyone other than the pinball show crowd. How big is that market? Well, I think we know exactly how big it is, its what it is right now. And if you aren't competing with Stern Pros, then you are left fighting for the scraps at the higher end of that market. Goooooood luck.

#7050 44 days ago
Quoted from wcbrandes:

Deeproot will never make money if the monthly burn is what Robert says it is. The investors are either forced or too dumb to care. Do the math figure out what the burn is and how many games they would have to sell a month just to break even. give them a 2k profit per machine I don't care its virtually impossible. Now add that monthly burn up for their current existence and spread it over say 10,000 machines a year...it's a joke. Msybe they will compete with the big content providers or video game developers etc lol, give me a break they cant even come close to release dates of one machine let alone the amount Robert was spewing off at the mouth. Also how many people have they pissed off that wont even look at a game or support due to negativity he projects on all other pinball companies. I have never seen a business so poorly launched in my life.

If Deeproot fails I’m going to be super pissed because of all the time and effort I’ve put into reading this thread. Is that also your concern?

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