In some ways I wonder if the boutique guys may have the better chance of surviving then the 'mid size' guys who want to go head to head with Stern and JJP. I say this as long as they team together or partner with the big guys and can keep their price point reasonable. The fact that Stern is building MMr (and I guess they are building Whoa Nellie) and JJP is going to be building Skit-B's second game, is one of the more interesting developments in the last few months and bodes well for boutique pins.
You can certainly see why Stern would be open to building machines for other players, since to a great extent they are not a huge threat to their share and it lets them leverage their production assets, without the sales and marketing expenses of those machines. They take no risk in those things selling and as others have said, those games are not going to distributors and ops, which I believe is still Stern's bread and butter. JJP obviously has similar reason to want to partner with the small guys.
A couple of 250 to 500 game runs of boutique titles each year would be great if it brings themes to the market that would not have happened by the big guys. They are not going to flood the market with too much supply. TBL, Predator, Aliens would never be done by Stern, just not enough of a market for older titles like those for them to pass up doing something like TWD. The bigger question effecting that happening is the first few of these games that make it through production. If the build quality and reliability suck, well, that will have a hugely negative impact on all boutique makers, another reason why partnering is key.
The more the boutique guys (and mid-tier) use 'common parts' the better as well. I think they also need to demonstrate that for their custom parts, there will be a reasonable supply available down the road. If pinballlife or Marco announced they had a hundred of custom part X from game Y in inventory, we would all feel better about buying a smaller run pin. The fact that Skit-B also has said they will open source their code, reduces concerns about the long term maintainability of their pin.
Lets be honest, while there is plenty of joking about JPops machines making it to market, the reality is that hangs over all boutique companies as a negative. Predator is well behind schedule, but at least seems they are now in production. Spooky is now delivering games. Dutch pinball has shown, that in a year, they could produce a prototype that is as far as long as it is, so it it does seem we will see this part of the industry come to life.
I do put DP in what I call the 'mid tier', since my impression is they have a much larger team working on it vs spooky or skit-B. Not sure about heighway, but given they have built so much technology, I'd also call them 'mid-tier', in this new world of pinball.
The one thing we all know at this point is that whatever time frame we think something is going to happen in, you need to triple it (or in the case of JPOP you need to (insert large number here)). Occasionally someone will do it 'on time' but I'll believe that when I see it. So, if we see even half of the games on that list in homes in 2015 I'd be impressed.