Fun topic, but before we even get going, I gotta know where you pulled these numbers from?

You are no longer drunk Ice, you are high as a kite

Please post up where you get 10,000 in 2017 and 12,000 in 2018 for Stern production.

By all estimates cutting those numbers in half would be generous.

2018 blockbuster game was Iron Maiden and it likely sold 1200 to at the very most 2000 (that is very generous)
Deadpool appears to be selling very poorly and may only hit 500-800
Supreme was 200
GOTG split in 2017/18 year and is likely 800-1000
SW was another big seller and likely came in around 1200-1500 units
Aero rounds out 2017 with 800-1000

By all accounts a normal selling title is 800-1000 units
A blockbuster is 1500-2000 units.

Stern likely did at max 5,000 games in 2017 and may do 6,000 games in 2018

That is 36-40,000,000 gross which is still a crap ton of money, but about half your original estimate.

I agree with everything except this part. For the most part, I dont think we are going to see older games all of a sudden dropping off.

I dont care if some crappy HUO Stern pro now sells for $3500. That does not mean the limited supply of older games (even the C and D listers) are dropping.

I think we are already seeing the hits on the high end, but partly that is because almost every new Stern is pretty similar to the other and the secondary hits come in order to get those games sold.

The older stuff has found its way into more permanent collections and things settle. With the boom of new collectors in the past 10 years, those B/W C and D listers are still more desirable than the 12th Stern pro HUO game to round out the field.

The problem being is that you assume they are building every day. Even with the ability to build 50 (more accurately the claim that they can) per day at the new facility they are likely averaging 150-200 games per week. Total yearly capacity is likely 8000-12000 games.

Old facility 'could' do 32 in a day but likely averaged 100-120 a week; 5000-6000 a year.

very good point and oddly the largest manufacturer also has the least parts availability.