It will eventually bite us, but I am no longer sure it’s right around the corner. Collectors are in hording mode and only adding to their collections. Heck look at the people building arcades in their homes, still cheaper than owning, insuring and maintaining a vintage car. Location games are back in barcades and they are buying up a lot of second hand inventory and even using newer games as a draw. Combine all of this with the fact that the stock market is on fire and we have all seen our net worth increase dramically.

Huh?

I think maybe this is a little confirmation bias. The pinball market doing great is a sign that terrible things are coming in the future. Sure, I guess it could mean that, but it wouldn't be the most obvious reading of the data. Look, anythings possible and we could always be one prick away from a bubble bursting, but there's a lot of money in this world. I'm not sure 84,000,000 is even a drop in the bucket.

Also, just because people own more than one of an item does not mean it is a collectible. I don't collect video games even though I own a lot of them. People don't buy pinball machines and then store or display them carefully the vast majority of buyers use them quite vigorously.

Anyway, just a counter to the doom an gloom.

Really, don’t mean to be doom and gloom? Sounds like exactly what you mean. I don’t understand all the threads bashing HIGH PRICE NIBs. Pins are a luxury collectible item. Prices rise on cars, watches, boats, ATVs, jet skis, etc. Costs of manufacture , licensing increase too. The market sets the price. People on Pinside complain but they buy the pins anyway. I just feel the whining is tired and played out. But to follow your argument to its (ill)logical conclusion, if the NIBs that you complain of were cheaper, then the market would perhaps be even more flooded. I don’t know what you are hoping for here Ice.

Go home you’re drunk.

Drunks always think “the bubble will burst.”

It's a drop in the bucket as far as big money goes.

lets say Stern does $100 million in sales. Harley Davidson sells $5B a year in motorcycles that's 50x as much as Stern.

I say Motorcycles because most who own a MC also one a car, so the MC is a luxury item or a toy.

Same with boats or small watercraft. Boating market is something like $37 Billion. Something like 40-60K small watercraft in the US each year.

this report says 250K new recreational boats were sold last year in the US are you kidding me?

https://www.tradeonlytoday.com/by-the-numbers/boat-sales-topped-250000-in-2016

Annual U.S. retail sales of NEW boats, marine engines and marine accessories totaled $17.4 billion in 2015 and are expected to grow to $19.1 billion as numbers are finalized for 2016. There were approximately 238,000 NEW power boats sold in 2015. The NMMA expects this number to grow to more than 250,000 for 2016.

The other unknown is pinball adoption. I meet lots of people that just bought or are looking to buy their first game. If the collector market is growing too, shouldn't be a problem absorbing the supply.

I wonder what pinside new user sign ups are like. That's one thing that comes to mind that could correlate and give some insight on how the market is growing. We need some advanced search options on the users to see how sign ups are trending, but I'm sure Robin has some insight.

Looking forward to buying up all the 3500-4000 HUO pros

Government stalemate has usually turned out to be a good thing. Power split with no one having significant control means politicians don't have the power to screw things up. Might actually be good news: status quo is maintained, and we're on a pretty good track right now. Hope the fed isn't too aggressive in the next year though.

The only problem with this argument is that there are likely others looking forward to buying up all the $4000-$4500 HUO Pros.

I just turned down a $9.1K offer for my Woz from a guy looking at another pin I have for sale - quality games will hold their value just fine. The problem with DP, tna and Houdini is they aren’t great games at all - mediocre at best.

While I'm not prognosticating, I'll admit this topic recently came to mind for another reason. Usually before heading for collapse, there's a blow-up top.

Out here in Seattle we import pins from Europe by the container load. The current import we've got all kinds of new interest and everyone and his brother wants an import pin. For the first time we will go for a 40-footer rather than 20.

While some things feel topish, like I said before, the market is growing, and doesn't feel anywhere near saturation. Pinball's still growing, so let's party like it's 198X! Or something... But in other words, I think the increased supply is in response to the increased demand.

1st, how many of these numbers of pins being produced are for the USA market?

2nd, does a high production really hurt value when more people join the hobby?

3rd, the number of NIB buyers is smaller than the older collectors who would rather wait and buy one a couple years down the road.

The market will historically adjust to supply and demand as it's always done.

The one thing is people like me, in the pervious 12 months I bought 4 (selling just 2). for the last 6 years I'm up 7 pins, but I won't be doing that anymore. I think if I add one every other year (or stay the same). So I am not growing the NIB sale (I did buy 2 nib pins in the last 12 months) but over the last 6 years have bought 6-7 nib pins. I won't be doing that again period. I am more or less at the state where I will just buy when I sell or maybe add one more every other year or so.

It's great news so many new pins are being sold, better that then the opposite. Will prices eventually crash, go back up and repeat? Yes, as with any hobby, but for now let the good times roll.

As NIB prices continue to rise though I would expect to take a bigger hit on the secondary market for most higher end titles.

I’ve got boxes of 90s baseball cards if anyone wants to trade for a pin.

The original posted makes a valid point. Pinball and other collectibles go as the economy goes. I hope were not in danger of a bubble bursting but a few more day of -800 on the Dow will make people's pockets shrivel up pretty quickly. Combine that with inflation and rising oil prices....hasn't translated to higher gas prices yet but come spring....who knows. I'll be interested to see where it all goes but the less disposable income the average american has the less people have for money for pinball, barcades, eating or drinking out etc. It's all connected.

As far as the market goes I think this is hopefully a healthy pullback for longer sustainable growth. Just the other week it was announced that unemployment is now at a 50 year low so I don't think we need to be too worried about an economic downturn yet.

.

You always bring this up. No I don’t buy NIB games, probably because I don’t like throwing money in the garbage. But I do pay attention to the market and I have for much, much longer than you.

The party won’t be ending for me anytime soon, baby! Because I’ve always been smart with what I buy.

I do not care if NIB buyers can expect to lose money when they sell their games. That’s exactly as it should be.

Doesn’t mean a “bubble is bursting.” 10 years ago you’d expect to lose $1,000 just by opening the box on a $4,000 game. We aren’t anywhere close to that kind of depreciation.

All I know for sure is you are obviously drunk.

Depends on title and condition for sure. This one is less than the one next to it. But am I worried about either losing value?

Hell no! You think I want to hire another interior decorator?

DSCN6014 (resized).JPG

You see!! I F'ing told you guys so!!

https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-is-finished

Yes! I am one them. I bought Dialed In LE NIB about a month ago and having tons of fun. I have thought about getting a pin machine for a while and finally found one that is family friendly and has great loopy shooting action. I am in late 40s who has gone through enough home game consoles and PC games over many years. I felt I just had enough of electronic virtual entertainment and wanted a real organic physical game machine. In a sense, I represent a generation who experienced 80s and 90s arcade during high school/college years, gone through home consoles, got bored, longing for 80s nostalgia, and now have enough money to afford a real machine. It was damn expensive but boy it is just an absolute joy to actually own and have fun at the same time. There is something thrilling and satisfying about actually owning one. As I type this, the yellow START button is blinking right next to me...oh yeah. I won't care if the value of the machine goes down or not.

Typical product life cycle. Demand will drive the market to saturation. Along the way, competition will drive innovation and cost cutting. The strong will survive and farm what's left of a declining market. Seems pinball found a second life, who knows when it will peak or end. I never cared for pinball during its first life, but am enjoying its revival. Just purchased two NIB machines bringing me up to 10.

I think pins are unique among collectibles because the are a blend of tech, mechanics and art. The randomness keeps the game play from being boring unlike most other gaming genres. I love playing pins and working on them. We have the best parties because people gravitate to the pins even if they never played them before - easy to play, hard to master. As an example, my 80 year old parents love playing my AC/DC pin - they never played pinball in their youth and they don't own any AC/DC albums.

The issue is I am now out of space so I have to make the hard choice of swapping out a great pin for a new one.

Waykewl... Great machine to have for first purchase. Every time I play one I want it.

It looks more like Stern might take a hit after having the bad habit of being the only supplier of a niche worldwide market. Them jumping on the Godzilla license shows some nervosity.

All together competition is always great for a market it pushes players to do better or cheaper or even both.

I thought the market was going to start going downhill years ago but it hasn't happened yet. I highly underestimated people's willingness to shell out big bucks for games that were 1/2 the price 5 to 10 years earlier, both new and used. I guess I don't see it tailing off anytime soon. The market has basically exceeded what I'm willing to pay except for Stern Pro's and those will cross my barrier soon ($6k).

Another market crash will provide just another reality check for many that think they can get rich without working too hard, and others who are living way beyond their means.

Let's see if it takes even a bigger dive in the next few days. Should at least provide some entertainment.

Debt levels are unsustainable all over the world.

Winter is coming.....

As for pinball, it's had a fantastic run but there are signs of saturation and this will slowly have an impact on the NIB market.

The demand is high right now for Pins in general. Stern, I am sure has the factory line at max or close to it. The best thing stern can do if they can’t increase output is increase the price. I don’t fault them for it.

The number of people playing pinball is up 30-40% this year over last. Stern has increased its output only by 20%. It would be a difficult ask to increase the production line more than 20% in one year. That’s why you see the price hike to make up for the lack of supply. The negative is Pins are becoming more expensive and will not hold value as well. Positive is more places to play pinball, more tournaments, and more titles produced every year.

The pinball market will take a hit when it looses popularity or during a recession. Pinball is not a good investment strategy but a great hobby!

No no no common think possitive guys

There are more and more millionairs every year, all WE have to do is show them pinball.
They will get addicted and start collecting pinball machines!

I see the $4k-$6k used games taking the biggest hit in value due to market saturation. It is hard for someone to want to drop $4600 on a Stern POTC or even something like WH20/NGG when you can get a couple year old used Walking Dead, Ghostbusters, Metallica, etc for about the same money. 2 years from now, the 20+ NIB games available today will be even more prevalent in the used market, pushing top tier "Stern Pro" level used stuff even lower. I see the pricing of $1.5k to $2.5k B, C and D list games as the safer place the next couple years, because that price range is a lot more attainable for the large number of new people getting into the hobby.

Fun topic, but before we even get going, I gotta know where you pulled these numbers from?

You are no longer drunk Ice, you are high as a kite

Please post up where you get 10,000 in 2017 and 12,000 in 2018 for Stern production.

By all estimates cutting those numbers in half would be generous.

2018 blockbuster game was Iron Maiden and it likely sold 1200 to at the very most 2000 (that is very generous)
Deadpool appears to be selling very poorly and may only hit 500-800
Supreme was 200
GOTG split in 2017/18 year and is likely 800-1000
SW was another big seller and likely came in around 1200-1500 units
Aero rounds out 2017 with 800-1000

By all accounts a normal selling title is 800-1000 units
A blockbuster is 1500-2000 units.

Stern likely did at max 5,000 games in 2017 and may do 6,000 games in 2018

That is 36-40,000,000 gross which is still a crap ton of money, but about half your original estimate.

I think that the market will begin to look like the used boat market. Rich guy buys a new boat for 10k, some years later he wants a new boat, so he buys a new 10k boat. The used boat drops in value like a rock and sells for pennies on the dollar compared to a new one.

In order for the nib sales to keep going as hotly as they are, the secondary market needs to drop. The barrier for entry needs to drop to get more middle class guys into the game. Rich guys will buy up all the new games but poor guys won’t continue to pay near new prices for used products. These old B, C, and D list games are going to drop in price because the newer machines hitting the used market will look more attractive comparatively.

My first game was F14 for $800 now their selling locally for over 2k. This won’t last, the price will come back down.

Also, with barcades being so new and young, I wonder how many barscades are taking on huge debt to try and bring in a crowd. I hope it works out, but I bet some will fail.

I agree with everything except this part. For the most part, I dont think we are going to see older games all of a sudden dropping off.

I dont care if some crappy HUO Stern pro now sells for $3500. That does not mean the limited supply of older games (even the C and D listers) are dropping.

I think we are already seeing the hits on the high end, but partly that is because almost every new Stern is pretty similar to the other and the secondary hits come in order to get those games sold.

The older stuff has found its way into more permanent collections and things settle. With the boom of new collectors in the past 10 years, those B/W C and D listers are still more desirable than the 12th Stern pro HUO game to round out the field.

Games such as F14 are going for $2k in part because more people in the hobby means less older games available and it's still far less then spending $5500-$5700 on a Stern pro. I don't see that changing anytime soon. Same can be said for just about any older title.

I think in a year or two, the LCD screen games are going to cool off the prices a bit on some later DMD games as well.

The market for cheaper games is really hot at the moment, and I think it can sustain itself going forward. There were only 1 or 2 System 80B machines at Allentown this year on Friday out of hundreds of machines on the floor, and I am not sure they were even for sale. I don't see System 11 games coming down in price at all going forward. When someone new comes into the hobby, one of the first things they hear about is how great system 11 games are compared to the other games of the same era. My hunch is that pre-alpha numeric solid state games have the best chance of regressing in price going forward...and even that isn't a sure thing.

Not many f14 selling at 2k these days.

The doom and gloom theories are all good, but it all comes down to the employment numbers and maintaining minimum levels for the overall health of the economy. Too many people involved in Wall Street as their livelihood is dependent upon it to just drop overnight. There might be some corrections here and there and new industries will rise as others fall, but I don't see a market failure any time soon.

Stern's production numbers as stated are way off. They don't run the line everyday, and while they are doing well, they are no where near the numbers posted. Gary said average machine cost a million dollars to fully develop, do you think Stern did well selling WWE? -No The problem with pinball production is it can be hit or miss. You get a miss or bad theme and sales suffer company wide. Some titles do very well and some are average. It may be too early to tell, but it appears like Deadpool is mainly selling to operators and not as many sold to home owners. One particular title can help carry the losses on another title.

Stern is making the right moves by increasing the awareness of pinball by increasing the number of distributors(not protecting the good ol' boy network), hiring marketing people like Jared and Josh, and trying to introduce distribution in other countries that have little knowledge of what pinball even is. I personally do not see any bubbles bursting in the near future, yes there are more options and machines are getting more expensive, but supply and demand will determine what pinball companies survive and which one's fail. More important is-It will depend on what "titles or themes" a pinball company chooses to produce. We are running out of themes with "universal attraction". One or two bad themes and it will be game over for any pinball manufacturer.

I think this resurrection or renaissance of pinball is fantastic, and I will ride this wave as long as I can.

Gottlieb- Barbwire-Really, who thought of that one?

American Pinball-Oktoberfest-Really, who thought of that one?

Spooky Pinball-Alice Cooper's Nightmare Castle-Really, who thought of that one?

Homepin Pinball-Thunderbirds-Really, who thought of that one?

My point is- theme's will determine the winners and losers in this competitive industry.

I think they're selling way more than that mainly because of the new location. They could build 32 games a day at the old location, that's 8000 a year. There's no reason to move to a location where they can do 75 unless they're selling more than that. Yeah, I couldn't believe they were selling that many either but they must be, otherwise the move wouldn't make any sense. I'm sure someone could do some serial number research and figure out some rough numbers.

There are a lot of people in pinball who will run out of space before they run out of money.

Pinball isn't even close to "bursting". The secondary market tanking would be a good harbinger of that, but the secondary market right now is booming. Used pins are selling for more $ than they ever have.

Also, Stern is selling so many games, it took me almost 3 months to get my GotG Pro after placing the order.

The problem being is that you assume they are building every day. Even with the ability to build 50 (more accurately the claim that they can) per day at the new facility they are likely averaging 150-200 games per week. Total yearly capacity is likely 8000-12000 games.

Old facility 'could' do 32 in a day but likely averaged 100-120 a week; 5000-6000 a year.