I've thought the same thing myself, and would like to get a NIB game this year to "get it out of my system" and due to the opportunities you just mentioned. The only thing I struggle with is laying out the dough for one NIB, when I could have multiple games to add to my collection. Oh well, it's only money .

Only way I'm buying a NIB in 2012 is if I find one with a Bally/WMS logo on the box.

I'm w John.

At the moment it is cheaper to buy a SS or WH20 and add a new playfield etc. The NIB 2012 pins are going to have to be good as I can get a 'NIB' WH20 for less bucks and I know I will love it!!

Great post Iceman as I was just thinking your exact thoughts. Pinball is not "back" by any stretch of the imagination from a business/operator perspective............However, it is on fire from a collector/hobby perspective, especially when you see Monster Bash selling for $7500 every other day. Given the new releases and the current inventory, it won't take much to saturate the market, which should cause price declines. All it will take for is for some impressive new titles to hit the market in 2012-2013. Stern & JJP need collectors, but what they don't need is secondary games being restored/maintained and cycled back onto the market without them getting a piece of the action. The aftermarket parts business has allowed collectors to bring games back from the dead which is not always good for new sales. I know JJP has mentioned leasing games to operators with the intent of taking them back to sell on the secondary market. I think this is a great idea, just not sure there are enough operators to build a business model around it.

If there was a title I could fall inlove with I may pop on a NIB. Not really into the music themed pins. Talk about the Elvira 3 pin was the only theme that really sparked my interest. Am looking forward to people needing more room, hoping to find some deals.

Jack said on the Spooky Podcast that JJP won't have another game out until 2013. He is dedicating all of 2012 to producing WOZ, and he expects the guys to start working on a new title around July 2012. He said that they might be helping someone else with a game that is being produced (John Popadiuk????), and that if that happened, we could expect that game in 2nd quarter 2013 and the actual 2nd JJP title (unlicensed still - and he said that the Elvira theme was not dead, just on hold until WOZ was done) for Christmas 2013.

He confirmed that he badly wants the Hobbit and intends to do whatever he needs to do to get the license. They are shooting for one machine per year, so that would be machine 3, for 2014.

Ok stern isn't Williams! I get that (and agree)! But they are keeping pinball alive! I just wish Pat Lawler would design a Widebody for someone! Hint hint JJpinball!

As for buying NIB this year. Lack of $!

i just don't see how NIB being 7000+$ is economical annually unless you have a lot of extra 'mojo' to throw around. its great to see another company (JJ) pushing stern to produce some quality pinball machines though.

That may have changed. Which version comes first. With Steve turned loose both versions will have a lot, and the LE is going to have a heck of a lot more.

LTG

the biggest hang up I have on a New in Box pin has always been
"will you still enjoy it a year latter?"
I feel the theme really has to pull you in 100% or dont bother - just my 2 cents

No on WOZ due to the theme. So it looks like 2013 at the earliest for a JJP pin for me. No on AC/DC due to theme. X-Men is a good theme but it needs to be a step up from Transformers LE. Transformers LE was a very good effort but still lacking IMO.

Good luck with that!

It seems to me that one reason the prices of used pins keeps going up is because the price of NIB pins keeps going up.

If people feel that they can get more pin for their money by buying used instead of NIB, it will drive those prices higher.

Man, it would have to be a slam dunk theme and be designed by one of the greats for me to do it! No buying without seeing first. You guys that shell out $7500 up front without seeing anything are ballsy... oh, that was bad.

I waited until the whitewood video came out before going in on WOZ. Widebody, two mini PFs, spinning house, wire form cross, LCD....all being designed by the guy that brought us TSPP on a shoestring budget? The whitewood video was enough to convince me.

If WOZ delivers, i will consider a nordman pin contingent on proper theme. No way on the ac/dc or avenger theme and after all the qc bitching going on over tf...

Yeah think a ton of weight or wait is on WOZ
If it's good or better then any Stern will they take a big price cut?
Or if WOZ is viewed by a large majority of players better then Spiderman what will happen?

Good discussion Iceman. I was thinking the same thing as I started to re-arrange my gameroom with my wife yesterday. Discussion centered on my "max" based on room, what titles would get voted off if a new title came out and space was my issue, and what made sense to possibly store versus sell. Good talk but made me think - ALOT.

As we moved pins around and decided for right now no TV area in the basement, I thought to myself a few options (besides I'm nuts):

1. Sell/trade a few titles to get a MM and BBB - thus lowering # of pins but having a solid dream lineup of a only a handful.

2. Sell off half the collection, use the space and spend the proceeds on the best home movie theater.

3. Just keep two titles and don't be an active collector. I honestly believe the pinball market in general is at an all time resale high for many reasons stated above. I expect it will come dropping down in the next year minus a few rare titles as people rationalize old game versus NIB for similar price.

Then I shook my head and said not yet. But the voices continue ever so faintly.

I'm in on WOZ and happy to wait for it. Avengers or X-Men would be so hard to pass up - don't think I could. AC/DC which sounds like it could be cool with great music - theme just isn't enough for me. I'll just play Ac/DC music next I play IM. Plus with my home arcade real estate almost exhausted - AC/DC won't cut it. Passed on TF LE for same reason. Love theme but so far, more scrutiny for available real estate and decided Avengers or XMen would want more based on gameplay. Very hard to keep adding more NIB pins without higher scrutiny especially with competition.

I also wish that JJP comment on maybe helping someone else out was more clear. If it's for MM remake I'm so in. If it's John P and his magic girl mainstream - hmmm. If it's Gene with Kingpin I'm not in. But two of those titles do make me pause. What ta do what ta do what ta do?

Good point. We all keep saying JJP will be good for competition with Stern and then the qc is still poor. Their customer service is great though - should be mentioned - but they do need to up their product with the new prices.

Thoughts? If I can't find my AFM and TF is as good as some of you claim...I just might do it, rabbit.

Rocky_and_Mugsy.jpg

Whoa, a lot to reply to...
-AC/DC is welcomed
-WOZ is welcomed, March production? Sure, first machine received? TBD...
-X-Men would be welcomed
-O.K. about whole PRO vs LE operated? I've never seen an LE on route.
To me it doesn't make sense to route an LE.
LE is for collectors or the very rare collector operator (I know one in FL).
PRO to me is just fine to operate.
-I don't know if TF pro or LE will drop in price, they'll be in inventory for sure still
-I've personally heard of/seen people sell machines to make space for WOZ,
these same people then make space for more machines or just buy more as well haha
-Frankly STERN and JJP can put out machines at the rate they are, as long as they don't lose money they'll make X amount of machines, we don't know how many of X amount of Stern games have been released for a while, so it's not like they over make them.
JJP will produce at rate of sales.

I just don't see the point of the NIB machine. Every time someone posts a thread about looking at a machine everyone says "Don't buy a machine you have not played." It is too high of a risk. When was the last time a new machine went up in value a year or two after it was new? You can wait for reviews and pick up a machine at a discount. Most machines go down in price it seems. Avatar, Tron can be had for below new and you can find out if you like it or not by playing it. I can't think of a single title I would drop $7000 on before I could play it.

There aren't going to be enough WOZ LE machines produced to take that chance, IMO.

Now, there will be a glut of regular WOZ machines out there for sale, when operators' lease agreements with JJP run out. I bet he leases out a buttload of these games on that plan. Plus, he is sticking them all of his accounts - one of his businesses is the biggest operator of coin ops on location in the US. Dave & Busters is placing them in their locations, too. Those machines will end up on the market in a year or two. So, you are probably right about the standard WOZ machine being more affordable down the line.

Thanks Gambit.........You just answered one of my big questions. The last time I saw a pinball machine in Dave & Busters was a while back and they were Star Wars Episode 1 & Revenge From Mars. It will be good to see them back in their locations.

I think B and C pins will slowly come down in price. A pins may drop a little but there will always be strong demand and a limited supply.

With JJP number 2 coming out in 2013, at least I have time to wait!

Stern's QC is a worry and I would have to just love the theme to bits to buy a NIB. Only a Pink Floyd pin could tempt me

Dave & Busters isn't a location account for him. They buy everything they place on their floor, outright. I don't remember which podcast Jack gave out all this info on - Gameroom Junkies, maybe? He said that he was selling the crap out of that $25,000 WOz pusher, and that Dave & Busters buys exclusively through Jack and has promised to buy X number of WOZ pins.

Jack fully intends to make it very easy for this machine to get onto location. The op lease is a great idea. He wants this machine in grocery stores and malls and everywhere we remember seeing them when we were kids.

Even if Stern continues to produce 2-3 titles per year, and JJP is putting out 1, it won't be a production anywhere near the number of titles coming out from W/B, Data East, Gottlieb, etc...in the 80's and 90's. Plus, Stern has been producing a bunch of pins for several years now, and only a handful have cracked the top 25 - and time will tell if titles like TF and Tron stay there. DMD games took over the industry and revolutionized those "Best Pins" lists. It will take an all new technology to do that same thing again, and maybe it is the LCD. But I have my doubts. Nonetheless, it will take years and years to get enough LCD titles out there to effect the market on DMD games.

Hey Gorilla, I have your AFM. But it will take some maneuvering, as I would have to end up with MM at the end of the swapping and horse trading. Anyone ever swung a 3-team trade on pins??

Here is the AFM....
http://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/afm-shop-finished

Having a chance to get under the hood of a few new sterns, I can't say I'd buy NIB unless something drastically changes in produt quality. The money is just not actually in the current product offerings.

Machines today are built cheap, play cheap, and feel cheap.

JJP has my interest with his "no expense spared" approach. I'm lucky enough to have a local arcade that's orded an Emerald Edition. If I see the money I put out in the product I buy, NIB will be an option for me again.

For now, "Costco" pinball NIB can stay on the shelf.

Well other than TRS-LE and Avatar-LE, pretty much every LE machine Stern has made!
Have you shopped around recently for any of the favorites??? (SMB, LOTR-LE, TRON-LE?) They are holding their value and SMB is getting ridiculous $$$ as of late.

Hardly the case...
QC is a little more relaxed, sure- I get that... But I have had far less issues with the newer Sterns than with other B/W machines. The S.A.M. driver board works really well, PLUS you can get all of your games parts easily enough with little headache.
Other than the muddled DMD animations, Stern has some amazing games IMO.
I will continue to support ANYONE who keeps the Pinball torch lit... PERIOD.

NIB's just have a "Kid-on-Christmas-Day", feeling when opening one. That is worth at least $500 in the ol' "mental bank" right there! You can sometimes score a NIB for below used depending on the season and title. I did with IM and LOTR-LE...
You just have to time it!

Had I been at the Costco Honda took pictures of in 2010 with that TDK, I would have snapped it up!
Alas, mine just had the classic...
I bet TDK's crane will most likely outlast JM's glove, LAH's crane and DM's claw combined!
O.K. rant over...
"We now return you to your regularly scheduled thread."

NIB 4 life!

I'd rather someone else takes the risk on a NIB and then I buy it off them for near cost price a month or two later That's how to avoid the Stern QC gremlins.

Nothing for me in 2012, well - as far as the speculative crystal ball goes anyway. I couldn't afford a WOZ and don't like widebodys that much anyway, no interest in AC/DC or X-Men as themes, I think I'll be spending more time fixing up some of my 'player' machines which lurk in the garage all alone. Black Rose needs a replacement playfield for example due to plenty of insert wear the seller told me wasn't there.

Nothing NIB for me either in 2012. If JJP delivers on WOZ and the next theme is a good one, I'll be laying down a deposit on their next pin.

So many people are saying this!

I am also thinking the same

When I get my WOZ, which I will be toward the end of the LEs produced since I waited for the whitewood video to pull the trigger (they are shooting for 15 per day, starting on 3/13 - so whatever it takes to get to the mid 900s), anyone that wants to drop by to check it out will have an open invitation.

I agree with most of this, well said!

The irony is that some people actually asked for their money back when the white wood video was released. Hard to tell a lot at that point, but can you imagine what people would have thought if they had a chance to see an AFM white wood video? It wouldn't look like much of anything.

I pre-ordered mine on January 9, the first day you could. I'll happily sell you my spot in line for $500.

I wish they set the order on who was paid up first. I know they still have people making the scheduled payments thru 1/15, and I could jump up several spots that way. But alas...I will be waiting long after the reviews are already in.

I can tell you one thing, I will be very hesitant about buying another NIB Stern after this whole TF-LE fiasco. I probably wouldn't have bought this one if it weren't for the fact that I'm already a huge Transformers fan (and my kids are as well). Luckily, the gameplay + theme are making up for the crappy decals + general lack of fit & finish.

Generally speaking though I'd say NIB is not worth what Stern is asking.

And I *like* Stern games.

Those issues would be easier to swallow if that TF cost $4900.

I guess I'd say it's not so much about the exact dollar amount and more about what they're selling vs. what they're delivering. They're selling a premium, collector quality product but delivering it with economy class QC & manufacturing. I didn't feel that way about IM (which I also bought NIB) but I do with TF-LE.

It does seem like Stern's QC has gone down quite a bit since IM. People always had some issues, but they appear to be much more prevalent on the last few games.

I had the chance to get a TRON Pro for $3000 in November at SPF.
The only thing was that it has a 1.5" hole in it for some reason.

I personally can wait and pick up a game a few months or a year old
to get it for around $3000 used instead of $4500 new.