There was a community post about your decision recently, it was tough to read then and now. My personal experience with you Kevin has been great, and I haven’t even met you in person yet! From sharing stories about the Dixie Dregs, offering to help me connect to the local CO community, even offering fair prices on pins I was looking to add to my collection helped make my journey from 1 pin to 7 pins fun! I regret I didn’t make the opportunity to meet you at LCP after any of our conversations, but maybe we will still get the chance elsewhere! Best of luck in your next adventure!

Scott

Hmmm, this thread is a little gloomy for me most days but this is 2nd time I’ve seen Larimer County, CO mentioned. So I will try to share some positive thoughts. I live in Larimer County, and while I appreciate that the situation is different around the country, the sky isn’t falling in Larimer County. Our communities are open and safe and across CO barcades are hosting safe tournaments every week.

The last COVID death in our county was 6/17/21 . There were only 4 deaths in Larimer county in June(6/1-6/17), and three were over 80 years old, one of those in their 90’s… while there is no publicly available correlation between vaccination or Delta and those 4 deaths, the positive test data shows Delta was just swinging up as these people passed, so possible causation but no clear correlation. Most importantly there have been zero deaths in Larimer county from COVID since the middle of June regardless of variant or vaccination status…that’s 7 weeks including this week…Zero Deaths… So even assuming the most generous(negative) correlation… 8% breakthrough deaths indicates only 1 of the 4 deaths would be from Delta vaccine breakthrough…in 2 months…of someone likely 80+

The last two weeks has seen Larimer County daily positive tests rise to ~70/day which is *way* below the two spikes, but certainly higher than the 20-30 positive test averages of May/June of this summer(highlighting the often relative meaninglessness of a 100% increase!). There is no July vaccine breakthrough data yet in the primary public data sources of Colorado, but Delta cases have become 80-90% of the total reported positive tests.

Finally for CO entirely, with Delta variant in full swing, the week of July 24th had 30 deaths from COVID of all strains and regardless of vaccination status. So 8% deaths indicates ~2 of the 30 were possibly vaccine breakthrough, ~2 the week before, etc.. eventually reducing back to the lower pre-delta breakthrough rate. zero is a better number…but 2 is not doom and gloom, especially without age and co-morbidity information alongside the death data. After all it should matter for healthcare guidance of 330M people, if the June 15th death of a 92 year old in Larimer County is the typical breakthrough death versus a 21 year old in prime health(which isn’t happening)

Through June 1, (which is mostly pre-delta) CDC data shows Larimer County breakthrough cases well under 25% and breakthrough hospitalizations well under 13%.

Larimer
Hospitalizations, fully vaccinated: 19
Hospitalizations, total: 290
Cases, fully vaccinated: 165
Cases, total: 4,607

https://www.larimer.org/health/communicable-disease/coronavirus-covid-19
https://covid19.colorado.gov/data

My guess is the Larimer County claims are actually CO data from the state epidemiologist quote below…(with perhaps some artistic license of 25% vs 20% case breakthroughs) while her numbers below do include the Delta spike, the relative increase in breakthrough numbers below are hard to parse…the official CO positive test data for 7/1-7/24 is around 15.5-16,000 cases all-in, 20% breakthrough would be 3,000+ cases, or in reverse, only 10,000 positives are needed to get to her 2,074 breakthrough number…so the numbers don’t add up in either direction…it’s even less clear when carried down the death numbers.

Regardless, there have been 4 deaths in Larimer County since June 1st, none in 7 weeks, and no publicly available correlation of vaccine breakthrough or underlying co-morbidities.

“State epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy said Colorado documented 2,074 cases, 92 hospitalizations and three deaths among fully vaccinated residents from July 1 to July 24. The unvaccinated accounted for 80 percent of cases, 87 percent of hospitalizations and 92 percent of deaths. So in other words, breakthrough cases for just those three weeks represented about 20 percent of cases, 13 percent of hospitalizations and 8 percent of deaths. For the period Jan. 1 through July 24, breakthrough cases in the state represented a smaller share of the pandemic burden: just three percent of cases, four percent of hospitalizations and three percent of deaths. ”

Bottom line… Larimer County communities are open, safe, and most of the great new Pin releases are available to be played in the wild!