I don't think day to day hype that happens on pinside is at all a reflection of the actual operations of pinball manufacturers.

I'd almost argue the largest two manufacturers aren't even competing against each other as much as you think. I am pretty sure operators are still a very large part of Stern's market (probably 50/50) whereas JJP due to its higher price point has a much smaller market of operators. (This is a WAG but probably 90 home/ 10% operators).

There are actual challenges, like Stern's software being 'behind' a bit, but they've got new teams and are dropping code more often and have taken steps to rectify this. And the challenges of cost control, and funding operations. IMHO the biggest momentum change would be macro-economic; if the stock market tanks or the economy goes into recession, that would hurt manufacturers a lot more than whatever the next JJP/Stern/Spooky game is.