There's always going to be similarities and differences with any two markets. Focusing on the differences doesn't negate the similarities. Supply and demand, and buyer psychology would be two examples of things that effect those two markets similarly.

If supply is low (like it has been), prices will be higher. If people are afraid that if they don't buy now they may miss out (like it has been), prices will be higher.

When supply catches up to demand, it'd be silly to say "prices never go down". We're already seeing it with lower used and NIB pins. And we're seeing it with lower used car prices. There's lots of info to be gleaned from looking outside the narrow world of the pin market!

I've read your post three times. Perhaps it's only because I've had 1/2 a cup of coffee, but I don't understand what you're saying. Are you suggesting selling each pin at a price directly tied to what each pin costs to make? Or sell them at lower prices as time goes on? My intrigue is surpassed only by my confusion.

Please advise

It's amazing how much more sense a thread like this makes when you turn ignore on for just a user or two. I can finally read most posts and think "Yeah, that's logical" and "Hey, where did all the constant venom go?"

Delightful!

I think this is a sign of the economic times. People are spending gobs of money in very decadent ways without much apparent thought. This kind of widespread behavior never lasts, and never without a reversal. No one is going to look at a South Park during the next "financial hard times" and think it's worth $9k. I'll be eager to see what the "prices never go down" people will be saying at that point.

I'd like to ask: What do you see happening in the next few months/years that could effect pin pricing? For me...

-If the economy continues to get worse, we'll see less money for fun stuff like pins. Prices go down. I think we've partially seen this play out with most prices stabilizing.
-Manufacturers catch up with demand and clear backlogs. Less FOMO, prices go down.
-Manufacturers still can't get parts needed and tensions between the US and China get worse. Prices go up.
-A continued rush of interest into pinball. Demand and prices go up. BUT...
-...eventually, if that demand continues, prices will drop if manufacturers can move from niche manufacturing to mass/mainstream.
-The stock market plummets, and people feel less rich. Prices go down. (for the record, if the stock market dropped by half tomorrow I'd be listing all of my machines, selling most and investing that money)
-The economy gets worse and some pin manufacturers go bankrupt. I have a hunch this is pretty likely. The closing of manufacturers, by itself, would put upward pressure on pins.

What do YOU think? I'd love to hear your ideas (first) and have some conversation about the above.

You know we're in a recession, right? Our economy has shrunk the last two quarters. Up until a few years ago, that was the longstanding definition of a recession. However you define it, the economy has shrunk. Not healthy. I know you're talking about housing demand and inflation and jobs creation, and those are all important, but when it comes to "the economy" growth is the end measurement.

You have a lot of forward-looking comments! You're a braver soul than I. I don't think anyone knows when or how the stock market will move. A plummet could happen tomorrow, or a decade from now. Do you think you could have seen the last big drops (or recoveries) in 2020, 2008, or 2000? I had an inkling of an idea for each one, but ultimately I had no solid idea. I sure wouldn't have guessed we'd be at the levels we were during the first year of a global pandemic!

I think Stern or most of the manufacturers WOULD expand if they were confident they could. Maybe not the Spookys of the world, but the JJPs and Sterns I'm sure would love to grow. Do you think they wouldn't grab market share and make more pins if they could? I think the bigger players would. I'd bet Jersey Jack G. would love to be the only player in town To put it a different way, what do you think would happen if demand kept increasing? Do you think the current manufacturers would grow, or would it all be absorbed by new companies?

I don't think anyone values a pin based on those rankings. Instead I think they'll likely go down relative to new pins because it makes little sense (to me) for a 30 year old pin to cost 80% as much as a new one.

If a hundred "hot new pins" were released and took over the top 100, I don't think the games you mentioned would change value because of it. Their relative ranking is not making them valuable, their individual popularity is.

So, you're thinking when EMs were selling for less than new up until a few years ago, that was just a 40-80 year low period?

Falling gas prices won't hurt, but there are many variables that effect their shipping costs. If all the shippers' costs go down (or up), then that would effect the rates. I can only imagine a shortage of labor, and the cost of that labor, is a big one right now.

How do we know it didn't create lower prices than would otherwise be? I think if Stern was the only manufacturer, and total supply was substantially lower, prices would be even higher than we see today.

Despite what everyone tells you, pinball prices don't always go up. And with any item, if the prices suddenly shoot up in value and become generally unreasonable, they come back down eventually. The market will not allow "crazy pricing" forever. The part that a lot of enthusiasts struggle with is they keep thinking "Well, if demand drops and prices plummet, I'll pick up lots of pins cheap!". That isn't logical, because they ARE the demand. If it drops, that means THEY aren't buying as many pins anymore. It's hard for some people to wrap their head around that.

When the economy struggles, peoples buying habits change. I've been told that it historically has never effected pin pricing, but when there's a HUGE home market that's still growing with record high prices I can't help but think the outcome will be different. If you read through the last few pages on this thread you might see some more input. I enjoy talking economy/markets/pin pricing, so fire away

What did that used $1200 Whitewater cost new? More than $1200, right? So it went -down- to the $1200. And at that lower $1200 price, you even said you thought it was rich. So you thought that pin should have only been, say, $800. Why? Likely because generally the pins you were seeing at that time had gone down in value from their NIB price. That's my point. Historically most NIB pins lost value as time went on. Some went up immediately, sure, but most went down immediately. These last few years seem to have people forgetting that. And even in your example, your memory starts at $1200, -after- the initial value drop. Which is understandable, as we all start considering things at a certain point in time and congrats on you going back at least that far to begin with.

Growth is the #1 measurement of the economy. The economy has shrunk two quarters in a row. It's the definition of not doing well.

You literally don't know what you're talking about when you say this. You're right in that it is indeed one of several measurements, but you're confusing other numbers with the economy. The economy IS the economy, and if the ECONOMY is shrinking then the ECONOMY is not doing well. You can mention unemployment (which measures...you know, unemployment) and inflation (which, again measures inflation) but those numbers don't MEASURE the economy. The economy does.

It's like you're saying your wages are doing GREAT because your boss is a nice guy and the business you work in is doing well...but your hourly wage is down. Your wages, in this situation, are NOT doing well.

I shouldn't mean to sound so harsh. I assume you mean well. I just think you're conflating different things which are related, but not the same.

Everything goes hand in hand, and nothing happens in a vacuum. The NIB prices are higher because the used market is higher. And the used market is higher because the NIB prices are higher. Ultimately it's not the manufacturers that are setting the prices people are paying, it's you and me. They can't charge $10k for a NIB if we're not willing to pay for it...but "we", the market, are. I don't think the buyers are "hurting" everything, but we are the ones making it happen. The sellers are just facilitating. Some dude asking $20k for a TMNT (that sits unsold) isn't going to effect the market, but a dude willing to pay it will.

See "Cyclopes", thinks "that's spelled wrong". Clicks on link...

...WTF is THAT? And that side art. Haha...

I think you'll be right, but it's amazing what little you're getting with a CE. No upgraded sound, no upgraded glass, no extra playfield mechs, etc. And yet, CEs were the vast majority of Halloween sales.

Having said that, their used HWN prices have tanked. I just sold a $10,500 (shipped) Halloween CE w/Butter Cabinet for less than $8k. I wonder if that will effect their initial pricing...probably not.

Are you on the right site?

Kidding aside, the fact that you're interested in buying a NIB and not just playing it on location answers your question. Most everyone here -could- buy one if they wanted, it's just a matter of what to sell. If you sold all three of your "old used pins" you could buy a NIB. Granted, it may be less reliable than your three current pins, but...

Do you know any of these "kidults?" They sound like a strange bunch.
It's interesting to see this clearly isn't just happening in the pinball industry. People my age with money now want to spend it on "toys".

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/19/kidults-biggest-sales-driver-toy-industry.html

Needing to finance something is the -definition- of not being able to afford it! People often overlook that fact. Financing entertainment is the surefire path to working forever.

There are forces like you mentioned that have pushed prices up. But he might be referring to a big force that could be pushing prices down this year - reduced demand. What you mentioned already happened and costs already went up. Maybe all those already inflated costs will continue to skyrocket. Maybe the already high demand will continue to skyrocket. But when we assume super high numbers will continue to climb, or super low numbers will continue to plummet, we're often wrong. And no one knows, so it'll be fun to watch how 2023 unfolds. Looking back is easy. Looking forward is surprisingly difficult.

I think you may be surprised. I could easily see more $20k+ Super Special Editions of something, and more $2k toppers. I hope they offer them - it gives people more choices, something I like (choices). I'm not buying them even if they're $10k and $200, but I'm glad if people want to they can.

And I don't think they're stupid as some have said - they are just choosing differently than me. I'm sure some people think I'm stupid for paying thousands for commercial grade amusement equipment for my house. I'm not stupid - I'm just choosing differently than them.

Finally, you get us! But only ironically.

If I'm trying to understand something, I exaggerate some of the numbers as a practice. Add a zero onto each of those sales figures. If they all sold 10,000 of each of those pins, and those pins were all in circulation, would that push prices up or down? If instead of 19 pins you had 190, would you be a net buyer or seller? Once you have the extremes answered, you can lower the huge numbers and try that in your head.

Godzilla is a great example: there was a fixed amount out there for a long time. Used prices were MSRP+10%. Once they catch up with demand and there's a ton out there, the price will likely go down substantially.

If everyone's collection doubled in size tomorrow, they wouldn't be buying as many pins. If they were cut in half tomorrow they likely would be buying more. With some mental acrobatics you can figure out what effects what. And everything...effects everything.

It's funny how quickly you can tune into which designers you like and not like, and their overall feel. No one ever played a STTNG and thought "Say, did Lawlor make this one?"

Or lithium AAs (if the battery holder was still healthy). I still don't see a downside to simply installing lithiums and walking away.

I think the reasonable answer is "Lithiums practically never leak. It's just not a thing. Leave them there forever."
I think the paranoid answer is "Take them out. The mere idea of a battery sitting on a board for long periods of time makes me nervous."

And even as someone who's handled thousands of lithium batteries and have never seen one leak, there would still be that tiny voice inside me saying "pull them out". So, paranoia for the win! Also, they're expensive and are just going to sit there slowly draining.

I believe you, but this is literally the first confirmed report I've heard directly that doesn't involve moisture. Is there -any- chance there was moisture involved? I've seen a corroded lithium button cell in a previously waterlogged package, but that's it.

It's clearly heading back in that direction. JP is a great example - finding one below NIB was a challenge. Now they're plentiful. It's funny how when there's less inventory, prices go up, and when there's more inventory, prices go down. It's like the pinball market actually follows the general rules of markets vs "prices never go down!"

I told someone two years ago that the "prices weren't sustainable", and explained that I meant not the absolute prices but the gaps between new releases and older pins. Is a mid-grade 20 year old pin like Monopoly worth 80% of a NIB? I'm saying no. But at the time I was expecting those midgrade pins to go down. Instead, the NIB pricing has gone up and dragged the Monopolies along, just not at quite the same rate. And the really sought after pins have gone even more through the roof. Will a Medieval Madness continue to be valued at double a NIB? Again, I'm saying no.

And speaking of MM, CGC has stated they plan to remake it. Granted, that was supposed to happen this year and that's pretty unlikely. But when that happens, expect those prices to come down. A lot of people will choose a $9k NIB remake vs a $14k original if given the choice.

Sorry, I should have said "They plan to re-remake it", aka make another run of it.

It seems half the pinball world disagreed, and have said over and over and over that pin prices never go down. They didn't seem to think the stock market, mortgage rates, home prices, etc., actually affected the pinball market despite them affecting every other market.

Replace "pinball pricing" with "markets in general", and there's lots of interest in that discussion. But when you combine that with pinball people, it becomes pinball market discussion. Unfortunately, more people want to belittle and argue then discuss, but I've come to accept that's the crap side of Pinside. I like talking about "what ifs", and pondering questions. Some people just want to talk at you. THAT is something I struggle to understand.

I can't imagine doing this if it WASN'T a passion project.

Well, those are two pretty different questions. And the answers will probably clash with each other!

If you buy a newer nicer pin, it'll cost you a "lot" of money and you'll do some work to it.
If you buy an older pin, it'll cost you less and you'll have to do more work to it.
Don't plan on either option making you much money! But buying broken stuff, fixing it, and selling it for some profit is fun if you like the fixing part.

As for "how to stop being poor", I strongly strongly (strongly) recommend mrmoneymustache.com. It is a life changing site. And no, he's not trying to sell you anything, just give you levelheaded advice. While I had already been doing much of what he talks about, it still changed the trajectory of my financial life and helped me retire when I was 42.

Speaking of Pinball Pricing, does any still think this is just a "summer slump"? I didn't think it in May. I don't think it now. There's a Godfather LE sitting unsold at $9500. Many moderns Sterns under $6k. This would have been unthinkable a year or two ago. Will the winter snow magically bring buyers scurrying to buy these up? I'm guessing not. Inventory has caught up, the mania has died down, and the slump has started.

Many pin people will swear pinball pricing doesn't follow standard economics, but every sustained shortage (and mania) is usually followed by a glut of product, which (while unthinkable in the shortage/mania stage) dampens demand. I think we're there.

Yikes! Thank God for Costco!

Dear Santa Fromage,
I know you're full of lies about these pinball price drops because pinball prices never drop. I've read the internet. I know.
Signed,
Pretentious Pinhead

Seriously though, those are great prices. AND free shipping? It's about time. I've been getting sick of everyone...telling everyone...that this was an impossibility. $6k for a LZ Pro shipped is actually pretty tempting.

I've been expecting this for awhile, and was laughed at when I suggested it could happen. I'll double down and say it's going to happen more, yes.

Nobody would possibly believe this term could be used for buying pins these last few years. But now, it's 100% spot on.

I struggle to understand how anyone can see the value in this. Yes, it feels and looks cool. But man oh man $1500 is a LOT of money for this. I had a used Halloween CE and a Toy Story CE with it and wouldn't have paid more than $100 for that feature.

Well, January 2024 is looking awfully different from January 2023. I look back and laugh when, in the spring, I mentioned how the market was soft and was snarkily asked "Is this your first spring in the pinball market?" (because everyone knows the spring is slow, you dummy!). And then I mentioned it was even softer in late fall, and was told "Oh, it's the holidays, the market is always soft around this time of year".

It's amazing when people can't recalibrate their thinking and accept that things DO change, that markets change, and what was happening yesterday won't necessarily be happening today or tomorrow. We're in a time that seemed almost unthinkable a couple year ago - there are a TON of games priced way below what we were clamoring to pay just a short while ago. And they're sitting there, unsold. Exciting...and changing...times indeed.