(Topic ID: 264520)

The official Coronavirus containment thread

By Daditude

4 years ago


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Topic index (key posts)

161 key posts have been marked in this topic, showing the first 10 items.

Display key post list sorted by: Post date | Keypost summary | User name

Post #1 Important warning Posted by Daditude (4 years ago)

Post #6 Coronavirus website with up-to-the-moment stats Posted by Daditude (4 years ago)

Post #172 Key posted, but no summary given Posted by PantherCityPins (4 years ago)

Post #193 Name of disease and of the virus Posted by PantherCityPins (4 years ago)

Post #209 Explains why you need social distancing Posted by PantherCityPins (4 years ago)

Post #239 Comment on seasonality Posted by PantherCityPins (4 years ago)

Post #251 Avoid ibuprofen Posted by PantherCityPins (4 years ago)

Post #370 Info on chloroquine Posted by PantherCityPins (4 years ago)

Post #530 News from Italy Posted by Pedretti_Gaming (4 years ago)

Post #693 Important info and advice Posted by ForceFlow (4 years ago)


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#5251 3 years ago
Quoted from pinball_ric:

China didn't lock down until February. The first reported case was in November. There's no way the number of deaths is so low.

They did have the advantage of starting with ONE case. We probably started with hundreds and then waited a couple weeks to react. That said, I'm very sceptical that China suddenly has zero new cases.

#5253 3 years ago
Quoted from Rezdog:

It’s morning again in America

And I had to wake up to this crap... from our president:
"President Trump is a ratings hit. Since reviving the daily White House briefing Mr. Trump and his coronavirus updates have attracted an average audience of 8.5 million on cable news, roughly the viewership of the season finale of ‘The Bachelor.’ Numbers are continuing to rise..."

P.S. Can we please learn that a "briefing" is supposed to be, uh... BRIEF.

#6412 3 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

Are the masks helping, or is it the authoritarian restrictions? Or both?[quoted image]

One reason I've heard is their recent experience with SARS.

Correction: For S. Korea is was the MERS outbreak.

#6456 3 years ago

Chartsmanship 101. This CDC chart (figure 2) of COVID-19 by age:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

The buckets on the horizontal access are not equal. They lumped the 20 year olds in with the 44 year olds.

Our leaders just need to be honest. You're not going to scare 20 year olds into compliance. The risk for people 44 and under is much less than for old people; not zero, but much less. Young people need to help their community by following their regions guidelines.

#6544 3 years ago
Quoted from Atari_Daze:

Nice little short read, if it wasn't posted yesterday. Numbers are for the UK but some interesting numbers:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

This is very likely true for people that die from influenza too. Since lots of folks are comparing the death rates of the two they need to stay consistent.

#6546 3 years ago
Quoted from pinballjj:

for instance " I have not heard of problems with testing in weeks"

That statement by Trump was SO disingenuous. You can't even hide under a rock these days without hearing about testing issues.

#6776 3 years ago
Quoted from Luckydogg420:

Pinside has ~65000 members.
If 30% get the virus that’s 19500 in our community
If 5% of them pass away. That’s a thousand pinheads lost.

Even with testing limited to people with symptoms, the fatality rate is only 2% here in MN. Broader testing will increase the denominator and this will be <1%. Not to minimize COVID-19, that's still a lot of deaths.

#7624 3 years ago
Quoted from taylor34:

This shows US stats on who is going into the hospital, ICU, and deaths. This was before things got overwhelmed.[quoted image]

Very few 20-30 year olds are going to the ICU, the CDC simply doubled the size of that age group to lump them in with the 44 year olds.

#8435 3 years ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

Tell me this.
China has a population of 1.3 billion. The US has a population of 327 million.
Why do we suck so bad when compared to a country that has 4 times our population?
[quoted image]

We just don't have the experience with epidemics. They've had SARS, H1N1, MERS and learned from them, so their population took COVID-19 serious from the start.

China saw their first cases around Jan. 1 and locked Wuhan (population 11M) down tight on Jan 23. We (the U.S.) had our first case on Jan 21 and knew at that time it was in S. Korea, Japan, and Thailand. Yet it wasn't until March 17 that we closed down bars and restaurants, with tighter lock downs following the next week. That extra 5 weeks to respond cost us dearly.

This is a very good interview covering the S. Korean response to COVID-19, sub-titled but worth watching.

1 week later
#10397 3 years ago
Quoted from Dooskie:

Now is not the time for anyone to take their foot off the gas pedal.

Not blaming you for this.... our leaders are using this analogy. It just seems backwards. It seems like we have our foot on the brakes.

#11028 3 years ago
Quoted from cait001:

Interesting to see the ICU status charted.

Do you know if your ICU capacity has maxed out there in Ontario? Here in Minnesota we have a low number of hospitalized (213) but 50% of them are in ICU (103). These differences could be caused by different severity of COVID-19 or they could be that we have so many ICU beds available that the threshold for moving people to ICU is lower.

11
#11029 3 years ago
Quoted from bob_e:

[quoted image]

That's a lot of BIG guns at that rally. They must be compensating for something.

1 week later
#12677 3 years ago
Quoted from DaveH:

I hate to even reply to this... but I will anyway.
100,000. People are straining against the "Stay Home" stuff. Part of that is obviously rabble-rousing, groups of people that are being "directed" to protest by external influence. But even without that, people are sick of staying at home and are going out more. As we stupidly open up too early, I am expecting lots more infections, and therefore lots more death. So I think that will hit hard in a couple weeks.

Unfortunately I think even your estimate is optimistic. Both officials and news reporters seem to be ignoring the fact that if you climb UP to a peak that is only halfway... you still have to climb back down. Hopefully hospital resources will be less scarce from now on which will reduce the fatality rate.

#12911 3 years ago

Trying to prevent confusion on this..
Quarantine is separation from others when you're NOT sick. It's for people who may have been exposed.
Isolation is separation for people who are sick.

#13186 3 years ago
Quoted from Daditude:

My grandmother received a Stimulus check.

Did you find any guidance on what to do with the check? We just got one for my deceased Mother-in-law. There are a couple clues that this is happening a LOT. (1) The topic is hitting the news today, and (2) there is a check box on the front of the envelope that says "If recipient is deceased, check here and drop in mailbox". Just business-as-usual for the U.S. Gov. I guess. Also, they SHOULD have had a clue that they were mailing the check to a dead person since it had the word deceased right in the address line.

#13341 3 years ago

It's my understanding that the pandemic personnel were merged into a biodefense organization. The problem is that the way you handle bio-terrorism is very different than how you handle a virus like SARS-CoV-2. This virus causes delayed symptoms and sometimes mild cases which makes it very difficult to contain.

#13342 3 years ago
Quoted from Atari_Daze:

Here you go in regards to the deceased getting checks:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/06/politics/irs-stimulus-checks-dead-people/index.html
I mean was there really any doubt? RHETORICAL question.

I really hate it when news sources are not accurate. The CNN headline says payments "must be returned". Following the IRS source they quote, in Q10 it says "the Payment should be returned". Both grammatically and legally, "should" and "must" are two very different things.

#13603 3 years ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

I doubt Walmart is getting any swinging deals on the food it sells.

I recommend a book called "The Wal-Mart Effect". It gives a very interesting glimpse into the power of the world's largest corporation.

#13722 3 years ago

I would be interested in hearing opinions on how people think COVID-19 plays out.

In my opinion this will become endemic and we'll just have to learn to live with it. Flattening the curve has worked in most places, but the intent of that was only to DELAY infections while hospitals prepare and accumulate equipment. We've shown that access to medical care greatly improves survival rate, so that's good.

I have no doubt that if we continue lock downs the number of infections will be minimized. Stated another way, lifting lock downs will cause increased infections and, unfortunately, more deaths. We may get additional therapeutics over the next several months but vaccine best case is February 2021. However, the logistics of administering 300M vaccinations are staggering and will take months. Plus now scientists are implying that two doses may be required. This easily pushes us out to one year from now.

So, when officials discuss extending business shut downs I have to ask, "What's going to be different in two or three months?" How long can we fund this shutdown? Our U.S. legislature throws around relief dollar amount in the trillions. Most people can't comprehend a million, let alone a million million. I find it more helpful to break that down per capita. Every $1T spent is $3000 per person in the U.S. That's a bill that's going have to be repaid.

#13850 3 years ago
Quoted from Oaken:

As a fun example of supply chain hiccups, if we had a vaccine ready to go today, we still couldn’t distribute it because there is a shortage of glass bottles right now. Can’t just put it in a mason jar. Takes a special kind of river sand and there isn’t enough of it in the supply chain right now to make the shit ton of bottles needed.
Also, there is to a lesser degree a supply chain bottleneck on the membranes and plastic caps that go on the bottles.
My worry is that the shortages will still exist when the vaccine is ready to go and so they will pull vials from other medicine supply chain (vaccines, Insulin, etc) which will then create ANOTHER problem.

Your points are all valid. I don't know if there is a precedent for trying to build up a supply of 320M vaccinations which is what is being done as they risk-start manufacturing hoping for successful test outcome. Storage, refrigeration if needed, distribution all become new challenges. Also, back-of-the envelope calculation shows that if we open up 100 distribution sites in all 50 states it will still take 4 1/2 months of around-the-clock distribution*. I had originally assumed they would use pneumatic injection (much faster) like I remember from 40+ years ago, but I haven't heard that mentioned anywhere.

* Technically, I think we only need 50-60% of the population vaccinated for "herd immunity".

#13853 3 years ago
Quoted from screaminr:

Everything that is happening now is being recorded in "HI DEF. "
There will be no denying who said what , and what they did .
Future generations will be the judge of who was right and who was wrong .

True, but you're making a huge assumption that facts will matter. In this brave new world of "Alternative Facts" (TM), facts certainly seem to have taken a backseat to viral media content.

Also, thinking of this as right and wrong is, in my opinion, incorrect. Is it possible that both sides are right but just using a different lens to filter the situation through? This is going to sound insensitive but it comes down to the price of a human life. On one side, if any loss of life is too great you're going to support lockdown no matter how long it takes. On the other side, stemming the potential economic loss is worth some number of deaths. The answer, as usual, is somewhere in the middle.

#13883 3 years ago
Quoted from RTR:

Today's talking point:
New Zealand, Japan, Germany, and South Korea are islands.

Wait... did they move Germany? Again?

I'll give you this though, a lot of NYC is an island but I don't think you can count it if you can still get there by car or train.

#14151 3 years ago
Quoted from albummydavis:

Without being political, I thought this was an interesting perspective. It does make you wonder about the role of non-stop information and news and how it may influence our tolerance for suffering. It’s pretty horrifying 1-4 million dead and none of us really think about it when we think about 1969.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/16/why-life-went-on-as-normal-during-the-killer-pandemic-of-1969/

I like this graphic:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

I remember the swine flu but not the Hong Kong flu. A few years back we had H1N1 that got ignored by most and went away. In hindsight there was probably a fair chance H1N1 could have become a pandemic.

1 month later
#16676 3 years ago
Quoted from razorsedge:

Plug in your scenario and likelihood/consequences.

If you put AGE across the top and POPULATION DENSITY down the left that chart fits COVID-19. Under 30 and consequences are usually minor; over 70 and COVID-19 are usually catastrophic. Highly populated areas are much higher risk.

COVID-19 is all over the chart and that leads to a wide range in how seriously people are taking it. The recommended precautions have more to do with protecting the community as a whole vs. ourselves.

1 month later
#18187 3 years ago
Quoted from Chrizg:

Only 6%. That is 9683 deaths from only COVID.

6% is what we have shut our entire lives down for. This is direct from the CDC. Not news media or your political candidate.

This is a misuse of facts.

Coronavirus kills by causing an overreaction in our immune system resulting in things like pneumonia. To say that that person died of pneumonia would be misleading and wrong. It's more likely that the death certificates that listed ONLY covid-19 are missing information on the other conditions.

1 month later
#19322 3 years ago
Quoted from Oaken:

distribution and administering the shots.

Yes, it's concerning that we don't hear more about the preparations for this. It wasn't long ago I learned that we will need two shots 6 weeks apart, so the problem is 2x what I thought it was. There is also an issue with distribution and storage that has been kept low-key. Some of the candidate vaccines (I believe the leading candidate is one) must be shipped and stored at -70 C (-94 F). I have no idea how many hospitals are equipped to handle this.

As far as distribution time, that's just math. Using the 150M doses mentioned earlier, at a very optimistic 1 minute per shot and 16 hour days, it will take 428 person-years to administer. If we have 1000 sites to administer the shots that will be 5 months.

#19356 3 years ago
Quoted from OLDPINGUY:

Is it Official? Our best plan?

I hope not, and No.

Minnesota Dept of Health has good demographics by age. If you are under 40 you have a 0.5% (5 out of 1000) chance of dying from COVID-19. If you are over 70 that goes up to 2.5% ( 25 out of 1000). Overall in the U.S. we have ~217K deaths and ~8M cases, so 2.7% fatality rate.

Even though those numbers sound small, they are not. There is no consensus, but about 60% of the population needs to be infected for herd immunity. That's 200M people. Even if we assume the number of cases is understated due to asymptomatic people and the fatality rate is only 1% that still results in 2M deaths.

Think of it this way. There are 1189 people reading Pinside right now. If we let this virus loose, between 11 and 29 of us will be dead in 20 days.

We are presented with the false choice of ALL of NOTHING. It is not one extreme or the other. Several countries are doing much better at this then the U.S. and none have attempted herd immunity.

#19415 3 years ago
Quoted from RonSS:

The numbers I'm applying are INFECTED PEOPLE DYING. The numbers that were being applied were infected dying given to Pinside members - as a whole - not infected.

I should have been more clear. My calculations were with respect to herd immunity. Herd immunity assumes that everyone is infected. Well, nearly everyone since the spread stops once a large percentage of the population has had COVID. The spread stops only because your odds of close contact with an infected person get small.

My "pinside member" numbers were an attempt to make the problem more relatable. You are correct in that they only hold if everyone is infected. In the herd immunity scenario it would only infect about 60% of them, so only 6-17 would die.

#19448 3 years ago
Quoted from o-din:

I imagine most of the hospitalizations and deaths due to covid are generally more than a little overweight or obese people.

Actually age seems to be the biggest factor.

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html#ageg1
If that doesn't open to a chart by age scroll down to "Age Group Data Table".

Last I checked the median age for infection (positive test) was 36, but the media age of COVID-19 death was 83. This is one of the main problems with COVID, it's really TWO diseases depending on whether you are under or over 65.

#19526 3 years ago
Quoted from razorsedge:

People get infected despite extreme PPE.

These people have jobs that expose them to the virus 12 hours a day. Plus, this confirms how infectious coronavirus is.

Currently in the U.S. the reproduction number for the virus (R0) is ~ 1.3. Mitigation measures only need to reduce this slightly; below 1.0 the virus eventually dissipates.

1 month later
#20518 3 years ago
Quoted from hAbO:

99% of people survive it

The problem is that he is right, but that does not make it a good thing. 1% of the U.S. population dying is ~3.2 Million people. The medical system is already struggling and were only at 8% of that number.

2 weeks later
#20900 3 years ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

So, The UK is now dealing with a different variant of Covid. The other European countries and the rest of the world are restricting travel from the UK.

As I understand it this mutation was discovered back in November. That means it already exists outside the UK and shutting down travel won't help.

#20901 3 years ago

Is anyone else here in the U.S. disappointed by the vaccine roll-out? Getting 200 million people vaccinated in 6 months works out to over 1.1 million vaccinations per day. AND, that will double in 3 weeks when they start the second doses. Unless the pace picks up immensely I don't see how we achieve late summer, let alone spring.

1 month later
#21386 3 years ago

As of today there are 24.7M COVID-19 cases with 410K deaths in the U.S. That's 1.7% fatality rate. Let's cut that in half assuming there might be 2x the number of cases due to asymptomatic cases, so 0.8%.

There are 12.3M doses of the vaccine administered. 0.8% of that is 98K. The number of vaccine reactions is WAY less than this so it's much safer to get the vaccine.

#21388 3 years ago

@Pinball_Gizzard, Thank you so much for the information you post in this thread, it's truly appreciated.

2 months later
#22311 2 years ago
Quoted from jlm33:

on April 9, it was 35 bodies v. 23 in the bulletin

Obvious explanation is that they are cremating people who aren't dead yet. Queue the Monty Python music.

1 week later
#22464 2 years ago
Quoted from cdnpinbacon:

How do you solve the crisis in India??

You don't. The problem with Covid-19 is that by the time you recognize a crisis it's too late. I'm fairly certain the B1117 (a.k.a. UK variant) is predominant there. That's what hit Michigan here in the U.S. Michigan had a vaccination rate over 40% and still saw a record number of Covid-19 cases. I'm worried we're going to see more states follow the U.K. and Michigan infection path, especially since the vaccination rate in some states is as low as 20%.

India has over a 100M people vaccinated, but with 1.3B population that is still not 10%. IF (and that's a big if, given that hospitals are being overrun) India can keep the death rate below 1% that will still be a very large death toll.

#22478 2 years ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Get them as many doses of the vaccine as possible

This just won't be effective given India's 1.3B population. Times two doses requires ~ 2B doses. My educated guess says that's more than have been manufactured to date.

Covid surges/waves last 8-12 weeks. Vaccines take a minimum of two weeks to be effective and up to five weeks to be fully effective due the second dose. India should be well on their way to the downward side of the surge before then.

#22511 2 years ago
Quoted from Jamesays:

J J vaccine is 1 dose and others coming.

Unfortunately, India has not approved the J&J vaccine.

There is empirical data showing significant protection after the first dose so India should focus on getting at least one dose to as many as possible. That strategy worked well for Israel.

1 month later
#23059 2 years ago

Very interesting info on breakthrough cases (vaccinated people getting COVID) and mask effectiveness, about 27 minutes in. Dr. Osterholm has been on the national news and NPR many times discussing COVID-19. He is very well-known here in Minnesota and I think around the world.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-56

My take-away is that vaccinated people under 65 are VERY low risk and for them masks less than N95 add minimal protection.

2 months later
#24484 2 years ago
Quoted from BrianJ1337:

Carry the same viral loads... Did they change the definition of "breakthrough cases" the same time they changed "pandemic", "herd immunity" and "vaccine" definitions?

No. A breakthrough case is a vaccinated person that tests positive for COVID-19. No COVID vaccines were 100% effective, so breakthrough cases are expected. Variants are lowering the efficacy but still very effective at keeping people out of the hospital.

I have no idea what you are trying to imply with those last three items.

#24486 2 years ago
Quoted from BrianJ1337:

Also locking yourself indoors doesn't help either strangely. "Cuomo says it’s ‘shocking’ most new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who had been staying home"

We are 18 months into this pandemic and you are quoting an article from 14 months ago, really? If you recall, Cuomo was taking a lot of heat for his mishandling of nursing home residents at that time and the chart in that article was trying to deflect that. Yes, since most people are at home most cases will happen there, for the same reason most accidents happen at home. Age is an important factor in COVID-19 and the article states that these were mostly retired (i.e. older) people. Old people tend to stay home more but still have people coming in.

#24489 2 years ago
Quoted from BrianJ1337:

Scientists actually consider measles a "perfect vaccine". They STOP transmission. There is "breakthrough cases" with measles (did they change that definition too?) yes, but only in the most rare and extreme cases and it's easily contained.

Interesting that your 2015 article ignores the measles outbreak in 2011 that originated from a vaccinated person:
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/58/9/1205/2895266

The measles vaccine is very good, but all vaccines that I know of depend on the effectiveness of the vaccine IN COMBINATION with a low probability of being exposed to the vaccine.

#24491 2 years ago

I have no intention of checking every one of those studies, but a cursory look shows that "peer reviewed" does not imply a successful study.

From the Popp, et al study:
"Outdated very biased retrospective meta analysis cherry-picking a small subset of studies, with a majority of results based on only 1 or 2 studies, showing positive (non-statistically significant) results for 10 of 11 primary outcomes across a total of 13 studies."

I'm not a brain surgeon or a rocket scientist, but that sure sounds bad to me.

You seem to be channeling Steve Bannon with his unfortunately successful disinformation tactic, a.k.a. “Flood the zone with shit”

#24658 2 years ago
Quoted from BrianJ1337:

We all have the save chance at spreading it vaccinated or unvaccinated.

This, of course, is NOT true since being vaccinated lowers the risk of becoming infected in the first place. Delta variant lowers the efficacy but it's still working AND keeping the majority of vaccinated people out of the hospital.

Quoted from BrianJ1337:

keep in mind these are new technology

So, you are OK with a new, untested use for an anti-parasitic (Ivermectin), but not OK with a vaccine whose mRNA framework has been around since SARS in 2003. Check.

#24818 2 years ago
Quoted from DB62:

If 80% or so of the people in the USA would have been VACCINATED months ago, it would NOT have MUTATED into the DELTA varaiant [SIC] and beyond.

Very sorry you have to deal with all that. I really don't know if the general public's lack of empathy and consideration for others is a symptom of this pandemic or an existing problem that is being highlighted by it.

However, Delta variant would have occurred regardless of our U.S. vaccination hesitancy/refusal*. This virus will continue to mutate until the entire WORLD is vaccinated. I have not heard epidemiologists talk about an absolute percentage (i.e. herd immunity) for many months now. 80% MAY have stopped the original virus, but these new, highly contagious variants need a much higher percentage. To stop the spread you need the percent vulnerable (i.e. unvaccinated) times the percent exposed to be a very small number. Delta is bad, but there are likely many future variants with the potential to be much worse.

* Don't take this any anything against our vaccines. I fully support our vaccines and we need to increase vaccination rates around the world.

#24839 2 years ago
Quoted from sven:

some vaccinated people still go to hospital

According to our state epidemiologist Dr. Osterholm, 25% of the COVID hospitalizations are people that only found out they had COVID after checking in to the hospital for another reason.

#24874 2 years ago
Quoted from onemilemore:

Curious for the medical professionals in this thread to weigh in on vaccine approvals for under 12s and if they think it'd be safe to accelerate.

I'm not a medical professional, but I did hear that one important investigation in the child studies is the proper dosing.

Personally, if I were in your shoes I'd be just as anxious. However, I would weigh seriously the responsibility of giving my child a not yet approved vaccine and would wait.

#24914 2 years ago
Quoted from manadams:

12,791 reported deaths through VAERS currently and you're saying only three are confirmed?

You don't have to take anyone's word for it, this is the disclaimer from the database you are referencing:

"While very important in monitoring vaccine safety, VAERS reports alone cannot be used to determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to an adverse event or illness."

#24932 2 years ago
Quoted from bonzo71:

What's the alternative?

I think you're asking what the alternative is to using VAERS data in a way that is specifically outlined as a limitation to the data on the VAERS web page.
from: https://vaers.hhs.gov/faq.html
"VAERS data cannot be used to determine rates of adverse events"

CDC and HHS use this data as PART of the input to report adverse reactions that we need to know about. We are getting those reports.

There is no way I can fathom that 12K+ people died from covid vaccines in the U.S. Plus, these vaccines are being used world-wide so it would have to be a world-wide cover-up. 4.8 billion doses have been administered. The vaccines are safe.

#24946 2 years ago

I'm looking for a mask recommendation. When required, I've been using the disposable multi-layer "surgical" masks, but want to switch to something that adds more protection for me. I prefer ear loops so I think that eliminates true N95 masks and I don't think I need that level of protection. I'd prefer it come from a trusted manufacturer.

Are there masks with good breathability that still provide robust protection?
Please don't turn this into an anti-mask debate.

P.S. Searching Amazon turns up lots of questionable masks, including some touted as M95i. I haven't heard of that and believe it's just a made-up designation to confuse us shoppers. Lutema is an example manufacturer that shows up on the CDC list:
https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html

#24957 2 years ago
Quoted from cdnpinbacon:

Please cheer me up.

A blast from the past but still a good read: http://dhmo.org/facts.html

i.e. A substance used in nearly all common products up to and including nuclear reactors. Everyone exposed to it eventually dies.

#25168 2 years ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

It will also require unvaccinated employees to take weekly Covid tests

Why do taxpayers have to pay for their "free" weekly tests? That's over $400 per month.

#25176 2 years ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

I am not sure how taxpayer considerations apply here.

The U.S. Government is paying for Covid testing. If Delta wants to provide a testing option for unvaccinated employees I think Delta should pay for it.

1 week later
#25551 2 years ago
Quoted from JoeJet:

I am looking at trends and NY Times website.

Draw those two graphs with the same vertical scale and they won't look similar at all.

#25584 2 years ago
Quoted from sevenrites:

Despite 95% vaccination rate, Cornell today has five times more COVID cases than it did this time last year

Logically, any statement can be made true by starting with a false premise:
"If the goal is to prevent infection, the 95 percent vaccination rate on Cornell’s campus has not accomplished that"

At this point the goal of COVID vaccinations is not to prevent infection, it's to minimize the occurrence of severe cases. Any cases prevented or transmission stopped by the vaccine is a bonus. Variants changed the COVID game many months ago.

In my opinion we should switch to counting hospitalizations vs positive tests. Test positivity has never been a good measure since in most cases people self-select to get tested.

#25714 2 years ago
Quoted from chad:

Out of curiosity, has anyone turned on the "Covid 19 Exposure Notifications " app

On my iPhone the exposure tracking is a setting you have to enable. You then need to install a separate app if you want to be tracked and enable notifications.

I tried it for two months but it was my biggest battery drain. I'm not a big phone user, so this might not be the case for others. I also don't carry my phone everywhere which limits the usefulness so I turned the notifications off.

I never saw a report from the app. It would have been nice if I could have seen the number of negative exposures.

#25768 2 years ago
Quoted from sevenrites:

More teen boys go to the hospital with covid vaccine related heart problems than unvaccinated with covid symptoms. 6 times more.

As of Sept 2021 in the U.S. 2432 5-17 year olds (ref. 1) have been hospitalized with COVID and there have been 1404 (ref. 2) cases of myocarditis and pericarditis after vaccination in people under 30. This is the finest granularity I could find, but even with an extra large group for the myocarditis group that would only be 1404/6, or 234 hospitalized with COVID.

SO... there is no way that statement is true. Also, myocarditis can occur DUE to a covid infection so you can't necessarily avoid it by avoiding the vaccine.

1. https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_5.html
2. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html

#25838 2 years ago
Quoted from sevenrites:

rare (resized).jpg

All of these conditions also happen for reasons other than a vaccination, so rare usually means insignificant compared to historical occurrences. These conditions are also more likely if you get infected with COVID than from the vaccine, so YES, rare.

Since the vaccination rate in the U.S. is not likely (in my opinion) to get much higher than it is (currently 63% with at least one dose), we will all eventually be exposed to COVID. Unvaccinated people will have ~15% chance of being hospitalized. Vaccinated people will fare much better with some avoiding infection completely and others having milder cases.

#25852 2 years ago

I'm not in favor of allowing testing in lieu of the new mandatory vaccinations. I was wondering how much this "free" testing was costing. Here's what I found at: https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/covid-19-test-prices-and-payment-policy/

"We were able to find COVID-19 diagnostic test prices for 93 out of 102 hospitals, ranging from $20 – $1,419 per single test, not including the price of a provider visit, facility fee, or specimen collection."

covid_test_pricing (resized).pngcovid_test_pricing (resized).png

#25923 2 years ago
Quoted from PantherCityPins:

valid concern that as yet we don’t have data that shows booster vaccination reduces hospitalizations, all the data is looking at serologic immune response.

Does this include data from Israel? They have better tracking than the U.S. and also have mostly Pfizer vaccine. They are reporting lower infection rates after the third dose.

Since I don't think we're going to get much increase in the vaccination rate even with a mandate, a third shot could both increase protection for the vaccinated and decrease the spread. FWIW, I understand the argument that the U.S. would get better results IF we vaccinated the remaining 80M, but that's a BIG "if" that I've given up on.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-finds-covid-19-vaccine-booster-significantly-lowers-infection-risk-2021-08-22/

#25934 2 years ago
Quoted from PantherCityPins:

Yes, in fact the researchers from Israel presented all their data at the meeting.

Thanks for the follow-up.

1 week later
#26087 2 years ago

This is the data I would like to see for the entire country: "Covid Outcomes by Age". I found this for Washington State and I don't see why it wouldn't apply to the entire population. It would be nice to have more granularity, but in the age group 35-64, ~90% of those hospitalized are unvaccinated.

To me this is a clearer statement of the advantage of vaccination than the CDC saying "10X less chance". Mathematically, 10X less doesn't make sense to me.

covid_hospitalizations_by_age (resized).pngcovid_hospitalizations_by_age (resized).png

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf

#26110 2 years ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

show some responsibility and clean up its act.

I wish this were true. YouTube/Google knows this will have no effect on their income. They also know that the bulk of our legislators are too old to understand how the Internet works, let alone social media... so this will appease them.

YouTube and Facebook brag about how many posts they take down without telling us how many get left up. Plus, the useful lifetime of these posts is so short that by the time they're taken down they've already propagated everywhere. The only real solution is to prevent them from getting posted in the first place.

1 week later
#26362 2 years ago

Interesting article on mask effectiveness from the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Diseases:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/10/commentary-what-can-masks-do-part-1-science-behind-covid-19-protection

#26394 2 years ago
Quoted from PinballNewb:

So if both people are wearing a surgical “blue” mask, the time to infectious dose from an infected person is increased by 300% vs no masks. Am I reading that right?

Yes.

However, as noted in the chart, the Delta variant may decrease the base assumption of 15 minutes to infection. The relative improvement due to masking would stay the same.

1 week later
#26509 2 years ago
Quoted from poppapin:

Any other side effects from shingle's shot? My wife got the 1st shot and was sick and nauseous for 3 days. Swears she's not getting the 2nd one.

One important thing to consider is how long you'll be out if you actually get shingles. I (stupidly) deferred my vaccination to the fall to avoid missing a day or two of summer and wound up missing more than a week.

#26543 2 years ago
Quoted from DaWezl:

Around here it’s approved at 6 months out too, I believe for all of the vaccines.

Correct for Pfizer and Moderna. Two months for the J&J with the only requirement that you're 18 or older.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/booster-shot.html

2 weeks later
#27073 2 years ago

Vaccines work, period. Perfect? No, but incredibly effective.

I don't know why Ivermectin became a miracle cure among some groups, but the studies with the most positive claims have been withdrawn. If it does have any positive effect, it is a small one. If it really prevented 90% of infections a study to prove that would be simple. On the other hand, I can find data everywhere in hospitalization and death reports that a very large percentage of severe COVID-19 cases and deaths are non-vaccinated.

Here is one of the best reports on the Ivermectin studies that I've found.
"Ivermectin: How false science created a Covid 'miracle' drug" https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58170809

#27145 2 years ago
Quoted from JohnnyPinball007:

And some say this vaccine stuff was rushed, well the final stuff was, but they had been working on it for over 10? years? So not as rushed as some would think.

Not rushed, just much faster than normal due to virtually unlimited investment. The U.S. government pre-bought vaccines with the understanding that they might not be effective and/or approved. The normal process would be increasingly large studies, then get approval, then start manufacturing. This was all overlapped with the only risk being wasted money.

Finding the optimal (minimal) dose and the optimal timing between doses would have taken a couple more years. Again, this is a cost trade-off and NOT a safety trade-off. Starting with the best information available was the right decision and saved millions of lives with the only downside being we now need booster doses.

#27185 2 years ago

Vaccines work due to a combination of being highly effective and highly distributed. Vaccines are not 100% effective, but when combined with high rates of vaccination means that you are also very unlikely to be exposed. That, and a single case has a very difficult time spreading. A 1/10 chance of breakthrough with a 1/10 chance of exposure results in 1/100 chance of infection.

For example, measles: "Two doses of MMR vaccine are 97% effective against measles and 88% effective against mumps."*

Measles was nearly non-existent for many years in the U.S. Then people got indifferent and some stopped getting vaccinated. Pockets of unvaccinated individuals allows outbreaks to occur. People did not dismiss the MMR vaccine as "ineffective".

Unfortunately, public health depends on the public. Currently, only 70% of the U.S. population has had at least one dose. That leaves 90M people for COVID to use for transmission and it will, especially since some regions of the country are well below 70%. Treatment has greatly improved, unvaccinated are skewed towards younger people, and therapeutics are now available, but I fully expect our death toll to reach 1.1M in the U.S.

* https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html

1 week later
#27375 2 years ago
Quoted from SilverUnicorn:

Just an interesting fact that I now personally know more vaccinated people with Covid than unvaccinated. Just found that interesting. There is no one answer for anything

This is not surprising, just a bad side-effect of using absolute numbers vs. percentages. As more people are vaccinated there will naturally be more cases of breakthrough infections. Also, breakthrough infection is not the same as breakthrough disease. Covid vaccines are still great at keeping people out of the hospital.

#27376 2 years ago

I couldn't find an article I read previously regarding breakthrough percentages vs. absolute numbers. While searching I found this related article which I thought was interesting:

[The Washington Post] Perspective | Covid misinformation spreads because so many Americans are awful at math
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/math-covid-vaccinations-jeremy-mcanulty/2021/11/12/bfe89018-417f-11ec-a3aa-0255edc02eb7_story.html

#27456 2 years ago
Quoted from Utesichiban:

People forget or don't understand. The goal and endpoints of the vaccine trials were prevention of severe symptoms, hospitalization , and death. It wasn't prevention of Covid or symptoms altogether.

The goals have changed and I am OK admitting and accepting that. Originally vaccines were thought to prevent ~95% of infections, lower for J&J. The virus changed. Variants lowered these numbers, but the vaccines are still great at preventing severe disease and death.

#27457 2 years ago
Quoted from BrianJ1337:

"1,223 in total, carried a fatal outcome."

Your comment of "A lot more than 3" indicates that you think these are deaths from the vaccine. There is no nice way to say this... you are wrong.

This report covers the period from vaccine availability through Feb 2021. The number of doses is redacted from the report, but at the end of Feb 2021 56M people in the U.S. had received at least on dose. Mostly Pfizer since it was first. It's WELL beyond that since this report is worldwide.

This report covers reported adverse reactions, 42,086 of them.

AND... it clearly says that reported deaths are not even necessarily from vaccination.
"An accumulation of adverse event reports (AERs) does not necessarily indicate that a
particular AE was caused by the drug; rather, the event may be due to an underlying
disease or some other factor(s) such as past medical history or concomitant
medication.

The 1223 deaths are not from vaccine. Plus, even if they were it would be < 0.002%, still WAY better odds than getting COVID. Pre-Delta I might have accepted an argument that one could avoid COVID, making any miniscule risk unacceptable. With 40% of the U.S. population not fully-vaccinated and more variants expected, getting COVID eventually seems inevitable.

#27519 2 years ago
Quoted from Bmad21:

How do we really know the true case count when this happens.

At least in MN at-home tests have never been counted. It's often mentioned as a reason why case numbers are undercounts.

For me, hospitalization counts are a more accurate indicator. Unfortunately, it's a lagging indicator so by the time hospitalizations spike it's too late to prepare for an oncoming surge.

#27540 2 years ago

I'm still not sure I believe this study.

"Among adults who have not gotten a COVID-19 vaccine, nearly two-thirds (64%) believe or are uncertain about FOUR OR MORE [emphasis mine] false statements about the virus."

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-media-and-misinformation/
Scroll down to figure 1 and take the survey yourself.

Ah, how I remember the good old days when the Internet was being born with its promise of bringing knowledge to the masses. Wow, did that ever turn out poorly. "There is nothing good that cannot be used more effectively for evil."

1 week later
#27785 2 years ago
Quoted from Mjonesproperty:

Someone care to explain this? Starting to look more like “science” may have gotten ahead of itself again and is causing more issues than helping.

Does using science in quotes mean you are referring to the vast knowledge of the social media "scientists"?

This report is based on VERY early data. The first Omicron case was detected in the U.S. on Dec. 1. Every qualified person I've heard or read on the omicron variant emphasizes that it's too early to tell very much. I've heard no conclusions on severity and infectiousness, only early indications that omicron is more infectious and less deadly.

I believe the report that post is referring to is here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7050e1.htm

Another part of that report that should have been included: "five of the 14 persons had received the additional dose <14 days before symptom onset. Six (14%) persons had a documented previous SARS-CoV-2 infection."

Based on that statement:
1. It appears that the booster dose is really going to be necessary for omicron.
2. Previous Covid infection will not be good at preventing re-infection with the omicron variant.

The main concern with omicron is that the apparent high infection rate, even if causing less severe disease, may result in further increases in hospitalization. Hospitals in many places in the U.S. are near their breaking point. It's too early to tell, but hospitalization and death are lagging indicators so if we wait until we see an uptick in those numbers it will be too late for mitigation.

For a good overview on omicron, see this podcast:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode_81
The transcript should be available in a few days. Warning, the podcast is not for people used to 10 second sound bites; Dr. Osterholm is very thorough.

Paraphrasing Dr. Osterholm, we can hope that omicron is less lethal and replaces the delta variant, but "hope is not a strategy".

1 week later
#28120 2 years ago

That's Chicago. NY has folding pizza.

#28125 2 years ago
Quoted from BrianJ1337:

In the beginning they were marketing these therapies as "perfect vaccines"

"You won't get hospitalized or die if you get it"
"you won't have to wear a mask"
"you can resume normal activities without worrying about infecting others"

Then it was "breakthrough infections are rare!"..

FFS, who are you arguing with, yourself?

Nobody is denying any of this. It's also 18 months old. Original mRNA vaccines were ~95% effective at blocking infections IN THE TRIALS. Variants changed the game. It's only by luck that vaccines are still keeping most people out of the hospital and morgue. If the vaccines weren't working at all there would be no room in the hospitals for all the unvaccinated.

#28141 2 years ago
Quoted from wolfemaaan:

Here’s what a clear copy looks like.

WELL, that WAS what it looked like... in MARCH 2020.

#28144 2 years ago
Quoted from BrianJ1337:

Pfizer’s CEO just a few months ago. 100%!

Try to keep up here... this is a rapidly evolving pandemic. Serious question: do you still have a dial phone? I thought so.

That was last APRIL.... Delta was not even a variant of concern until May 2021. We're at omicron. The WHO has tracked 100s of variants, 5 variants of concern in the past year. Anything over 6 weeks old needs to be carefully evaluated to make sure it's still relevant.

Are you arguing that what the Pfizer CEO said wasn't true? It was. It MAY have been relevant at the time given that South Africa was dealing with some of the earliest variants. Again, that data is too old to be relevant in the world of Delta and Omicron.

#28290 2 years ago
Quoted from BrianJ1337:

Well my wife’s selfish vaccinated coworker decided it would be a good idea to come into work while knowingly living with a covid positive person the last week.

That I can agree with. People really need to start thinking more their impact on public health.

Sorry your wife is sick. Hopefully it stays a mild case and she gets well soon.

#28308 2 years ago
Quoted from PanzerFreak:

Is there a percentage out there of how many fully vaccinated + boosted individuals won't develop Covid-19 symptoms even if exposed?

It's really too early to tell for the omicron variant, but the virus is working its way around the vaccines. It does appear that omicron is producing more asymptomatic cases, which is good for its victims but bad because of the increased spread.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/how-effective-are-covid-19-vaccines-against-omicron
"Best estimates suggest vaccines are around 30%-40% effective at preventing infections and 70% effective at preventing severe disease."

A booster shot increases the effectiveness to 70% against infection, but my understanding is that that is based on measuring increases in anti-body levels versus measurements in actual infections. Again, just too early to tell for sure and given the slow uptake on booster shots here in the U.S. it may be irrelevant.

Vaccines and boosters are the best defense against hospitalization and death.

12
#28309 2 years ago
Quoted from vdojaq:

just OTC drugs and we are both fine.

This is your personal experience and that's great... but irrelevant.

Hospitalization rates are still on the increase, so a lot of people have not been so lucky. If 100 people posted their positive covid results here, ~85 of them would be similar to yours. A small number would not be so lucky but I don't think we'll see them posting from the ICU.

13
#28345 2 years ago
Quoted from PinPatch:

My 7 and 9 year old got it and had virtually Zero covid effects. In my opinion you are MAD to vaccinate children.

I think therapies would be more effective than mRNA vaccines especially for younger people.

I know two children that were vaccinated and they had no issues whatsoever. So, by your exact same logic we have no reason not to vaccinate everyone.

#28381 2 years ago

Not this again. "Peer reviewed" is not a synonym for approved, agreed with results, studies. Many of the peer reviews point out flaws and limitations to the study if not just plain errors. It's almost like they post this crap assuming nobody will read any of the reviews.

#28411 2 years ago
Quoted from PinPatch:

Show me the long term studies on mRNA vaccines?
Something greater than three years.
Also how can one evaluate Pfizer when the placebo control group no longer exists?

I know this is just an excuse you're using and you'll just jump to the next one, but non-mRNA vaccines are available:

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/who-can-get-vaccinated#access-to-vaxzevria-astrazeneca

#28414 2 years ago
Quoted from PinPatch:

My other issue is the mRNA vaxs do not slow the spread. Australia has areas of 92% double vaxxed and we are hitting 35k cases a day in those same states.
The outbreak at my kids school, there was no noticeable difference in the spread between unvaxxed and vaxxed.

This is the first I've heard of this. All sources I have report reduced effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against omicron but still somewhat effective (~ 30%). I know this isn't an option in some countries, but a booster dose appears to double the effectiveness against omicron.

Also... how do you know that those 35K cases would not have been much greater if not for the vaccinated?

16
#28456 2 years ago
Quoted from Mikala:

This is so true, so let’s recap some of the “Big Lies” that we were told to us over the past 9 months.

If you get vaccinated, you cannot catch COVID.
If you get vaccinated, you cannot get sick from COVID.
If you get vaccinated, you cannot spread COVID.
This is a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

The first three are categorically FALSE and were never said by a CDC or NIH official. No COVID vaccine was ever reported as greater than 95% effective so obviously you can still catch, get sick, and spread COVID.

As for the last statement, 85% of COVID hospitalizations are unvaccinated. If the unvaccinated hospitalizations were reduced to the vaccinated levels we would not be overrunning our U.S. hospital capacity. I'd have to go back to look at the full context of where this last statement was made, but I believe this was explained. Context matters.

That said, personally I can't defend the official messaging on this pandemic. I'm not happy with it, but they don't lie. I believe one of the problems is trying to convey complicated messages in three minute TV interviews and twenty second sound bites. They need to do press conferences where they have as much time as needed to explain their positions in great detail.

#28493 2 years ago
Quoted from Mikala:

Then repeated multiple times in other broadcast. Please don’t make me post the video.

Repeated by who? Nice challenge, I can't find a video that doesn't exist.

My information comes from our MN dept of health and our state director of the Center for Infectious Diseases, Dr. Michael Osterholm.

Quoted from Mikala:

Some hospitals are reporting 54-60% of there [SIC] patients are vaccinated,

This is news to me. The data lags, so omicron may be changing the game. Boosters are needed for omicron. In the same way COVID his older people highest, breakthrough disease is more common in people over 65 so in regions with older populations this might happen.

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/characteristics-of-vaccinated-patients-hospitalized-with-covid-19-breakthrough-infections/

Since I can't study your sources I have no way to challenge them, but that's they way you folks play this game.

Except for you I have NEVER heard anyone say or imply that being unvaccinated is the best way to reduce hospitalizations.

#28588 2 years ago
Quoted from PinPatch:

Do you guys solely believe in the Vax? No treatments at all?

Of course not. Doctors have done an outstanding job learning what works for Covid and that has greatly reduced fatalities. But obviously, the best way to survive Covid hospitalization is to not be hospitalized. Vaccinations have done a tremendous job reducing hospitalizations (for those that chose to get vaccinated). The monoclonal anti-bodies are by all counts miracle treatments, but in short supply now due to omicron.

Quoted from PinPatch:

The Vax stastically [SIC] reduces hospital transmission but does not slow the spread. Look at Australia over the last month. 90% plus population double vaxxed and massive amounts of new cases. Close to a 100k per day.

You can not conclude that it doesn't slow the spread from that data. How can you prove that there wouldn't be 200k cases per day if vaccination rate were lower? By the way, 90% is an outstanding vaccination rate. We'll never get near that in the U.S.

Quoted from PinPatch:

I know people who are double vaxxed, some are fine, some are struggling and a friend's uncle died.

Sorry to hear that. Unfortunately, breakthrough infection and breakthrough disease happen across all age groups. With omicron a booster really helps with breakthrough infection, but fully vaccinated is still enough to keep people out of the hospital. The data is not perfect, but there is a 5-10x lower chance of dying across all age groups if you are fully vaccinated.

1 week later
13
#28746 2 years ago
Quoted from Trekkie1978:

If restrictions are useful, then how did NY reach record highs with the omicron wave?

If restrictions aren't useful, then how did Australia keep their COVID death total per million to 4% of U.S.
(Australia = 112/M, USA = 2590/M)

Again, you can't prove, estimate, or imply what would happen if restrictions were not put in place.

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