(Topic ID: 264520)

The official Coronavirus containment thread


By Daditude

10 months ago



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Topic index (key posts)

140 key posts have been marked in this topic, showing the first 10 items.

Display key post list sorted by: Post date | Keypost summary | User name

Post #1 Important warning Posted by Daditude (10 months ago)

Post #6 Coronavirus website with up-to-the-moment stats Posted by Daditude (10 months ago)

Post #172 Key posted, but no summary given Posted by Pinball_Gizzard (10 months ago)

Post #193 Name of disease and of the virus Posted by Pinball_Gizzard (10 months ago)

Post #209 Explains why you need social distancing Posted by Pinball_Gizzard (10 months ago)

Post #239 Comment on seasonality Posted by Pinball_Gizzard (10 months ago)

Post #251 Avoid ibuprofen Posted by Pinball_Gizzard (10 months ago)

Post #370 Info on chloroquine Posted by Pinball_Gizzard (10 months ago)

Post #530 News from Italy Posted by Pedretti_Gaming (10 months ago)

Post #693 Important info and advice Posted by ForceFlow (10 months ago)


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#5 10 months ago
Quoted from Isochronic_Frost:

I think that’s around when Lloyd opened SS Billiards

lol....

18
#48 10 months ago

Lockdown Day 5 here.

Not too bad, got plenty of food and supplies, a garden with a terrasse and beautiful weather for the first day of Spring. Over 70°F today and we had lunch outside. No car noise around besides a few ambulances in the distance (living 4 km away from Paris where the population density is much higher).

As long as we have tap water, electricity and internet, we can last for weeks. I can work from home for some time.

It's fine for me but not for everyone. Hospital staff is under heavy stress and poorly equipped. I may be asked to help eventually. Feeling as if I am in the eye of the storm.

#73 10 months ago
Quoted from Psw757:

average age of deaths in Italy is 79.5.

Don't know about average age of deaths in France, but median age of people in critical care due to the virus is 60 - in other words, half of the (very ill) patients are below 60.

#103 10 months ago
Quoted from wolfemaaan:

Here’s what a clear copy looks like.

Thanks for the information. It is interesting (although note that the Death toll estimates for the 1919 flu vary - providing a range rather than a precise value would have been better).

But... there is a small problem here.

This chart uses a small font for a critical information: "On-going".
It should be "ONGOING" in uppercase / bold / underlined characters.
The same chart plotted at the beginning of any pandemic would make it look minor...

Here is another graphic (sorry it's in French, Etats-Unis stands for USA).
Exponentials are nasty. Really.
Results may be a bit skewed between countries depending on kit availability - which can also change with time. Figures for Iran are probably inaccurate - not enough tests, people staying and dying at home, etc.

The one country that seems to have broken the exponential growth curse is South Korea ("Corée du Sud").
Capture d’écran 2020-03-20 à 14.55.14 (resized).png

#173 10 months ago
Quoted from wolfemaaan:

Nobody is talking about once you survive it, you are cured.

No, not always. You may end up with permanent (or at least long lasting, time will tell) lung damage. Including for relatively young people. This was one of the nasty surprises here in France.

#211 10 months ago

Meanwhile, in Italy...
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/europe/italy-military-coronavirus-intl/index.html

FYI, France is currently 9-days late compared to Italy. In other words, what happens in Italy today is what we will experience in 9 days. We manage to increase the gap by two days (it was 7 not too long ago) and I don't really know why/how.

#297 10 months ago
Quoted from Legacy:

I'm not buying it as a viable strategy at all.

And yet it worked in China, Hubei Province (80 million people in total). Strict enforcement, only the most necessary workers allowed to go out, groceries often delivered home, etc.

#512 10 months ago

I forget who posted it in a coronavirus thread (Thanks!). Found it appropriate...especially when you are French!
Stay strong.

DontGiveUp (resized).jpg
#516 10 months ago
Quoted from Pinball_Gizzard:

The chloroquine question is not certain at this time.

France: ongoing trial, hydroxychloroquine 600 mg/day

China: Multiple clinical trials (ChiCTR2000029939, ChiCTR2000029935, ChiCTR2000029899, ChiCTR2000029898, ChiCTR2000029868, ChiCTR2000029837, ChiCTR2000029826, ChiCTR2000029803, ChiCTR2000029762, ChiCTR2000029761, ChiCTR2000029760, ChiCTR2000029740, ChiCTR2000029609, ChiCTR2000029559, and ChiCTR2000029542)

"Thus far, results from more than 100 patients have demonstrated that chloroquine phosphate is superior to the control treatment in inhibiting the exacerbation of pneumonia, improving lung imaging findings, promoting a virus-negative conversion, and shortening the disease course according to the news briefing" (text extract from Biosci Trends, 14 (1), 72-73 2020, published March 16)

Not sure if the dosage was the same for all trials. They noted
"Severe adverse reactions to chloroquine phosphate were not noted in the aforementioned patients" '(same source)

However, ***PLEASE READ THIS***: "the margin between the therapeutic and toxic dose is narrow and chloroquine poisoning has been associated with cardiovascular disorders that can be life-threatening (Frisk-Holmberg et al., 1983). Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine use should therefore be subject to strict rules, and self-treatment is NOT recommended." (taken from Antiviral Research 177 (2020) 104762).

In addition, these authors are cautious / skeptical for the following reasons:
"no data has been provided yet to support this announcement. Results were produced in ten different hospitals and possibly from a number of different clinical protocols among those listed above, which include various designs for control groups (none, different antivirals, placebo, etc.) and various outcome primary indicators. The final in- terpretation is therefore technically demanding, and in the absence of published data, it is difficult to reach any firm conclusion"

I found one reference where tested at 2x500 mg / day. Abstract published a few days ago (full paper is in Chinese and I have no idea how many patients were involved in this specific trial).

Zhonghua Jie He He Hu Xi Za Zhi, 43 (3), 185-188 2020 Mar 12
[Expert Consensus on Chloroquine Phosphate for the Treatment of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia]
Multicenter collaboration group of Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province and Health Commission of Guangdong Province for chloroquine in the treatment of novel coronavirus pneumonia

PMID: 32164085 DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.1001-0939.2020.03.009

Abstract
At the end of December 2019, a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, and has quickly spread to all provinces in China and 26 other countries around the world, leading to a serious situation for epidemic prevention. So far, there is still no specific medicine. Previous studies have shown that chloroquine phosphate (chloroquine) had a wide range of antiviral effects, including anti-coronavirus. Here we found that treating the patients diagnosed as novel coronavirus pneumonia with chloroquine might improve the success rate of treatment, shorten hospital stay and improve patient outcome. In order to guide and regulate the use of chloroquine in patients with novel coronavirus pneumonia, the multicenter collaboration group of Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province and Health Commission of Guangdong Province for chloroquine in the treatment of novel coronavirus pneumonia developed this expert consensus after extensive discussion. It recommended chloroquine phosphate tablet, 500mg twice per day for 10 days for patients diagnosed as mild, moderate and severe cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia and without contraindications to chloroquine.

And the paper I cited above:

Biosci Trends, 14 (1), 72-73 2020 Mar 16
Breakthrough: Chloroquine Phosphate Has Shown Apparent Efficacy in Treatment of COVID-19 Associated Pneumonia in Clinical Studies
Jianjun Gao , Zhenxue Tian, Xu Yang

PMID: 32074550 DOI: 10.5582/bst.2020.01047

Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus is spreading rapidly, and scientists are endeavoring to discover drugs for its efficacious treatment in China. Chloroquine phosphate, an old drug for treatment of malaria, is shown to have apparent efficacy and acceptable safety against COVID-19 associated pneumonia in multicenter clinical trials conducted in China. The drug is recommended to be included in the next version of the Guidelines for the Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Pneumonia Caused by COVID-19 issued by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China for treatment of COVID-19 infection in larger populations in the future.

---------------------------------------
And now the reason why scientist are cautious about these results.

It usually takes months to publish a scientific paper (tell me about it!) and months as well to set up a clinical trial. You need to make sure that each group is similar (in terms of age, severity, comorbidity factors... read the criticism posted above) if you are going to compare different treatments.

Here everything was rushed, from the trial to the publication. Some standard procedures were probably abandoned, given the emergency. Peer-review was definitely lightning fast. Peer-review is a quality control process that make sure fatal errors are avoided (and still, even after a long peer review, you may find mistakes or fraudulent results but that's another story).

This does not mean these results are wrong, I am just explaining why scientists can be a bit uncomfortable.

Disclaimer: I am a biochemist, not a virologist (with a PhD, not MD).

#522 10 months ago
Quoted from Bublehead:

O-din, you need a holiday...

Or a good night
Moderators should have an 8-hour eject option to force people to go to bed.
During that period all you would get by trying to reconnect to Pinside would be sweet relaxing music

#532 10 months ago
Quoted from Pedretti_Gaming:

I'm writing this post only for let you know.

Thanks. Stay strong.

#535 10 months ago
Quoted from RWH:

So sad that families are not being able to have time with loved ones,

I fully get this.

I lost my mother on February 5 this year from... the flu. Doctors had time to warn me she would probably not make it, although she was a fighter and in good health before. But the flu (we are sure of that - influenza virus tested and confirmed; it was not the coronavirus) evolved into a severe respiratory syndrome, not too different from what coronavirus patients experience. Not fun, believe me.

It was tough but I consider myself fortunate now.
I was fortunate enough to be by her side the last week and 24/24 the last 3 days, and I could prepare a proper burial for her the week after.
I feel for those who can't.

18
#536 10 months ago

Last artwork produced by a street artist (C215) living near Paris (in Ivry-sur-Seine). Finished a few hours before mandatory confinement.
C215_Ivry (resized).jpg

#673 10 months ago

A few countries got it right from the beginning: Singapore and Taiwan. Add to that Korea, even if they have far more cases: situation seems to be under control now. What they did was basically start an investigation every time a patient was tested positive : find everyone who was in contact in the last XX days, isolate until you can test. Work like a detective. On top of that, Taiwan closed travel with China (or controlled everyone).

It's too late now to do that in the US or in Europe: too many cases for that strategy to be efficient. Now the only thing that may work is social isolation.
We will see the control experiment with countries that cannot or would not do it. For example Iran, as its economy is already crippled: most people staying at home would starve. Or (as far as I know) Sweden which until yesterday did not want to implement coercitive measures.

#1028 10 months ago
Quoted from Asael:

In germany we now have 21000 cases of corona and 70 deaths so far, (...)
In italy they have 53600 cases and more than 4800 deaths.
I just don't understand this difference.

I don't either...and it would be interesting to see how you handle emergency care patients.

The higher-than-everywhere death rate in Italy is currently 9% (4825 / 53578). A possible explanation is the way they do (did?) tests: they prioritized them to patients who were seriously ill. Meaning you would be missing the people who would survive the infection anyway. Another explanation is its aging population. And a third is fact that they are now overwhelmed with not enough ventilators.

The death rate in Germany is currently 0.38% (84 / 22364)...better than in most places. May be it's only a matter of time. People don't die instantly - if the number of cases grew very recently in Germany, the deaths will come a few weeks later. Add to that that Germany has a significantly higher number of emergency care beds than France for example (I read 25,000 vs 7,000). Or may be you have enough tests to check nearly everyone even with very mild symptoms: they will survive but would be missed elsewhere.

France is in between: 3.9% (562 / 14485) but this figure is higher than what people were anticipating. This explains in part why our response has been inadequate. Health authorities were probably counting on 0.5% and they were taken by surprise.

#1033 10 months ago
Quoted from phil-lee:

There will be many that are soon faked so people can continue to drive around.

... until penalties / fines become prohibitive.

It escalated quickly in France for those being out without a good reason.
$40 the first day(s).
Quickly increased to $145.
And now, less than a week later, I heard on the news $600 (in case of recidivism) and possible jail.

#1036 10 months ago
Quoted from swampfire:

Italy’s is one of the best in the world, actually.

Correct. At least for Northern Italy, and that's where the virus hit the hardest.

#1047 10 months ago
Quoted from vicjw66:

Italians are a very affectionate people. They give out hugs and kisses like it’s candy. Germans, not so much.

OK, this increases the chances of being infected, but should not affect the death rate (?)

#1064 10 months ago
Quoted from RipleYYY:

you'll get your answer in +/- 2 weeks... :/

Andrew Heighway, leave that body!!

#1091 10 months ago
Quoted from Luckydogg420:

@jlm33 can you post where you found this graphic, or find an updated one for us please?

https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2020/02/27/en-carte-visualisez-la-propagation-mondiale-de-l-epidemie-de-coronavirus_6031092_4355770.html

Updated more or less every day - last update this Sunday
Capture d’écran 2020-03-22 à 13.24.40 (resized).png

#1098 10 months ago
Quoted from BobSacamano:

I'm seeing a lot of at-home tests for COVID-19 being announced?
Will you buy one?

No - for the reasons stressed in the article.
1) It does take time (you need to send the sample back to the company, as far as I understand)
2) You need to be thorough with the oral swab (to avoid a false negative)
3) More importantly, you create a competition for ressources (polymerase kits) with hospitals, which are now in short supply. My own academic lab received a demand from the local hospital to give them the polymerase they need...

I assume it's a PCR-based assay. Basically you try to look for a specific nucleic acid sequence which is unique for this virus and you amplify it by PCR.

PCR (polymerase chain reaction) is relatively easy to set and you can do it properly if you work in a proper lab and avoid contamination by other samples. A PCR machine is now inexpensive, primer sequences are easy to find, and DNA primers are inexpensive and can be ordered from a lot of different companies. Including positive and negative controls would still be necessary but this is not rocket science (I could do it, which tells a lot !). I would assume their results would not be less accurate, as long as their employees are not sloppy (and this will very quickly become boring to them, so chances are you pay less attention).

#1140 10 months ago

Anyone knows what's going on with Switzerland? (I should - I probably live closer to this country than most of you but no one talks about it here)

7,100 cases for a population of... 8.5 millions. Which translates into half the number of cases in France for a population 8 times smaller, i.e. a 4x h higher density of cases.
May be they are very proactive for testing? (80 deaths only)

#1196 10 months ago
Quoted from Wickerman2:

@gibsonguitar say they will keep their factory open until someone at the 300-person facility tests positive for COVID-19.

4 cases at my wife's research center (out of ≈ 200). All four working part-time in Hospitals. Tells figures about how well protected they were in the hospital environment... Love your Doc, stay at home if you can.

The research center is now officially closed, besides a very small skeleton crew checking essential stuff such as -80°C freezers, liquid nitrogen holders, etc... - my wife is on the list. Losing some ressources would mean losing years of work. She can bike to the lab (5 miles) and the center now looks like a ghost town.

27
#1275 10 months ago

Moderation and personal notice:

Try to stay away from blaming people or organizations. Now is not the time - it's too late or too early.

Many will be blamed later with good reasons. In the US and abroad, France included. Especially France.
I don't know many countries in which this crisis was handled correctly.
But later.

Try to keep your comments to the current situation and how you can improve it. Perhaps criticizing what is going on in a given state now would be tolerated if aimed at promoting changes and saving lives - but commenting on what was decided in January or February is (sadly) no longer helpful.

The time is rather to stick together, take care of your loved ones and stay united.
Be careful, and help your medical staff the way you can... if only by avoiding the risk of catching it.

Quoted from DBLM:

I wish everybody else well. Please, please, please keep your wits about you and practice common sense and respect for others. This is going to get worse before it gets better, and this is the time to try to help as opposed to tear down.


This! Exactly my thoughts - are you sure you really want a thread eject?

11
#1291 10 months ago

This interview (in French) published one hour ago summarizes the observations made by Dr. Didier Raoult (a coronavirus specialist working in Marseilles) regarding the first results of the hydroxychloroquine trial in France.
https://www.lorientlejour.com/article/1211545/didier-raoult-a-lolj-les-essais-sur-lhydroxychloroquine-doivent-avancer-pour-ralentir-et-stopper-le-covid-19.html

Here is the (google) traduction

"In almost three-quarters of the twenty-four patients included in its initial clinical trial, the viral load disappeared after six days. The patients were cured."
(...)

Q: Can you present the study that you have carried out concerning the use of hydroxychloroquine in a therapeutic perspective for patients infected with coronavirus?

D. Raoult : When the Chinese reported their promising activity of chloroquine and one of its derivatives, hydroxychloroquine, we proposed to reflect with my team in Marseille on the action of this treatment in patients with this coronavirus. It turns out that hydroxychloroquine is a drug that I know very well. We have already used it to successfully treat certain intracellular bacterial infectious diseases, in combination with an antibiotic from the penicillin family. I also know its side effects. It was then proposed to treat patients with this coronavirus with hydroxychloroquine. This drug has been widely tolerated for thirty years in the treatment of inflammatory diseases. It is a derivative of chloroquine, a drug used for sixty years to combat malaria and which is mainly administered to elderly people leaving for or living in tropical countries.

Q: What clinical trials are being done that suggest that chloroquine has an effect on the disease?

D. Raoult : The protocol that I put in place today has been approved nationally and officially filed. We included 24 people infected with SARS-CoV-2 whom we treated with hydroxychloroquine. We have been monitoring viral load very closely in these people with respiratory problems. The mechanism is the same as that followed in the care of people with AIDS. This is to measure the viral load in the blood before and after the administration of the treatment. If the number of viruses collapses, it is because the medicine is working and the patient is cured. We set a deadline of six days to see if the viral load will drop. It worked with hydroxychloroquine. You should know that the viral carriage (period during which the person is carrier of the virus while being asymptomatic) reported by the Chinese is on average twenty days. During this period, the person is contagious. This medication happens to lower the infectiousness to six days. This is a very large margin.

Q: Have you done any comparative studies between chloroquine and other drugs? If yes, what were the results?

D. Raoult: Yes, and this combination of the two molecules was created in our center in Marseille. We have known for a long time that a secondary bacterial infection plays a role in the severity of the state of health of a person treated for a viral infection. A large study has shown that the use of azithromicyne in viral infections in children improves the prognosis and shortens the length of hospital stay. So my team and I have made it a clinical habit to combine azithromicyne with hydroxycholotiquine to treat people with viral infections. The results were good, especially as the viral load in these patients dropped significantly.

Regarding this coronavirus, we were fortunate to have a control group. On the one hand, these are sick people who refused this treatment and, on the other hand, patients hospitalized in Nice, who were not undergoing any treatment and who wanted to participate in this protocol. After six days, we noticed glaring differences in the viral load of sick patients under this protocol and those who did not follow any treatment. The result was surprising. People treated with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin had an even more dramatic reaction. The viral load in almost all of these patients had disappeared after six days. In addition, we noticed a marked improvement in these same patients after 24 to 48 hours. We asked for a new protocol to try hydroxychloroquine in combination with azithromycin to clarify and confirm my experience.

Q: Is it dangerous to combine hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin? What are the limits for using chloroquine? Does it interact with other drugs?

DR: It is a legitimate question. We did an electrocardiogram to see if these two drugs didn't interact together, causing heart rhythm disturbances. This has been hypothetically proposed but to my knowledge, there is no evidence of a case in which this combination had a significant adverse effect compared to treatment alone with azithromycin, which gives it some very rare problems.

Q: Will all people who test positive benefit from this treatment? Even those who are asymptomatic?

DR: This is a complex issue because even in so-called asymptomatic patients, lung lesions are visible on a lung CT scan. We do not know whether these people are sick or not. It’s a real question of whether to treat them.

The second point is whether we should treat all positive people in order to prevent the spread of the virus. In my opinion, it should be done, because in a communicable disease, it is necessary to treat those which constitute reservoirs of virus and not to remain in ignorance by confining them at home, at home without knowing if they are positive or not. I think that in our era, infectious diseases should be diagnosed and then treated by assessing their contagiousness linked to their viral load.

Q: In which group of patients would this treatment be indicated and at what time of the disease?

Dr: In accordance with the Hippocratic Oath that we have taken, we obey our duty as a doctor. We provide our patients with the best care for the diagnosis and treatment of a disease. We therefore decided to offer treatment, from the diagnosis, to febrile people who come to practice a screening test for coronavirus infection, as well as for all infected patients, many of whom are not very symptomatic and have pulmonary lesions detected at to scan.

Q: Are you optimistic?

DR: I am delighted that since the beginning of our discovery, many countries have taken a close interest in it and want to start a protocol on a thousand people, notably in Oxford, in England, and in Thailand, as well as in the United States. In Spain, 200 people will be included in a work on chloroquine. Anyway, these trials should advance without losing too much time in order to slow down and finally be able to stop the great contagiousness of this virus.

#1762 10 months ago
Quoted from jlm33:

Moderation and personal notice:
Try to stay away from blaming people or organizations. Now is not the time - it's too late or too early.
Many will be blamed later with good reasons. In the US and abroad, France included. Especially France.
I don't know many countries in which this crisis was handled correctly.
But later.
Try to keep your comments to the current situation and how you can improve it. Perhaps criticizing what is going on in a given state now would be tolerated if aimed at promoting changes and saving lives - but commenting on what was decided in January or February is (sadly) no longer helpful.
The time is rather to stick together, take care of your loved ones and stay united.

Back to Pinside after 8 hours of sleep.

Good to see you've been following my advice!

I mean... please !!

#1766 10 months ago
Quoted from Who-Dey:

Sure would be nice to see warm weather slow it down some and buy some more time for treatments and meds.

Slow it a bit, perhaps.
Stop it, no way.
I've followed Brazil's situation, number of cases have started to grow recently. Same for Australia. (Technically it's not Summer anymore there but Fall since March 20)

#1771 10 months ago
Quoted from Utesichiban:

Exactly why we’ve made the decision to sanitize and delay opening all packages and mail right now.

No idea how long the virus would survive on the enveloppe, but this is not stupid. Wash your hands after you collect your mail.

14
#1777 10 months ago
Quoted from Blitzburgh99:

Wuhan is home to China’s National biochemical warfare laboratory. Back in January, there was talk in the media about this virus being a weaponized form of the 18 previous coronavirus and one of the workers accidentally contracted and took it out into the community.

Regarding the origin of this virus, please refer to this important article cited by Whysnow in a now-closed thread.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9?utm_source=fbk_nnc&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=naturenews&utm_medium=social&utm_content=organic&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=NatureNews_&sf231597135=1&fbclid=IwAR2SNdDj1SkUM21YGaf2t-ROv6KDEywJPXhtf9TPuDouQc29CPQOF5nGfqM

Really worth reading. Published in one of the most respected journals (Nature Medicine). The main conclusions are:

"the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein optimized for binding to human-like ACE2 is the result of natural selection".
In other words: "SARS- CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus".

The authors are highly respected experts from the US, UK and Australia working at The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK, Columbia University, New York, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA and Zalgen Labs, Germantown, MD, USA.

So please no more conspiracy theories here.

#1810 10 months ago
Quoted from RWH:

I have to call the hospital today as I'm scheduled for pulmonary test tomorrow but, to be honest I don't want to go in the hospital.

Don't. Stay at home. All non emergency appointments (even more minor surgeries) at Hospitals have been cancelled in France since last week.

Stay safe.

#1948 10 months ago
Quoted from jfh:

In true Stern fashion, if they do make ventilators, we’ll have to wait two years until the software to run them is finished

lol! Jokes aside, I wish them well. Hope no one will be severely ill there.

#1971 10 months ago
Quoted from hwyhed:

just read that gloves don’t protect from virus, as compared to not wearing anything. Gloves can carry it just as easy..

To clarify: gloves will efficiently prevent the virus from reaching your skin. But the gloves won't kill the virus (no idea how long it will survive on this surface). So if you touch your head, scratch rub your eyes with your gloves, you may well become infected.

The solution would be NOT to touch your face, but this is extremely hard to do over a full day work. You would need to take a break often to change gloves.

Also note that *removing* latex gloves (without running ANY risk of contamination) is not as simple as it seems.

#2292 10 months ago
Quoted from Wickerman2:

“I just spoke with Dr. Fauci — he believes that, if anything, we should be more aggressive and do more."

To summarize, now that it's too late for us for the "Aggressively track and isolate the few cases found" strategy (Singapore, Taiwan), we are left we three possible options:

(1) Do nothing, let people work. Business as usual. Just close a few events and wear masks on TV. This is basically what Iran is doing right now. Human death toll will be absolutely horrible, even Iran's population is younger than Italy's, for example. Most people have no other choice than to keep working, not necessarily because the government forces them to, but because no job equals no food.

(2) Close everything, impose a very severe curfew, lock people in their homes for 2+ months. Basically what China did in Wuhan / Hubei province. It *does* stop the infection but the economical cost is huge - not to mention impact on moral and sanity...

(3) Take the middle path: close schools and a few non essential events (large gatherings indoor for example), but not factories or transport.

My impression is that solution (3) (the "middle truth" according to Kevin Kuleck...) is not a good one. The disease is so contagious it will still spread, and the economical cost will be still be important once your hospitals are overwhelmed (you won't flatten the curve enough but will perhaps delay massive contagion by 2 weeks ?). In addition people will be afraid and won't go out to restaurants, or have to keep the children at home. They will also stockpile essential items and create shortages, economical exchanges with other countries will be slowed, etc...

No matter what, the tourism industry will be either totally disrupted (2) or extremely affected (1,3).

To me the only viable solution for a wealthy and (relatively) aging country is 2) while poorer countries won't have any choice but (1), while pretending to actually take measures and claim (3).

#2299 10 months ago
Quoted from kstairmantis:

I can't help but wonder what the real death toll was in China.

I have friends and colleagues in Jiangsu province and I visit them quite often.
The situation is much better than in France right now. Universities are open (but for staff, not yet for students. Expected to reopen mid-April). Hospital are OK (hospitals are not OK anymore in France). Travel restrictions were severe, and are just starting to be softened.

I don't believe for a second 21 millions people died because 21 millions cell phones went dead. It's just that cell phones were not a priority anymore for some people, especially when locked at home (as long as you have internet).

On the other hand, the death toll in Wuhan was probably worse than reported. And we'll probably never know the really death toll in Iran (especially in Qom).

10
#2410 10 months ago

Humm... over 407,000 cases worldwide now.

It took 2 days to jump from 300,000 to 400,000+
It took 4 days to jump from 200,000 to 300,000
It took 11 days to jump from 100,000 to 200,000
It took ≈3 months to jump from 1 to 100,000

How long will it take to reach half a million? One day ? Less ?
Exponential growth is hard to beat...

#2715 10 months ago
Quoted from jimjim66:

If we can flatten the curve, there is some good news that gets overlooked. The death rate from the disease is going down in our country. Hopefully and praying with advanced screenings, and social distancing our numbers will go even further down. Right now we are 1.23% down from last week when we were at 1.68%.

Sadly just a sampling bias and no cause for joy.

US (finally...) ramped up testing, meaning more cases discovered every day, often at an early stage.
Not yet in critical condition for the unlucky ones.

It is difficult to have a clear idea of the death rate during exponential growth.

#2746 10 months ago

Know Your Enemy:

Meet SARS-CoV2 (in orange) attached to human epithelial respiratory cells.
Image from Inserm (French Institute of Health)

ET5tUNdX0AI7uJz (resized).jpeg
#2756 10 months ago
Quoted from JodyG:

I hope this is added to the key post list

Umm...

#2870 10 months ago

About the sincerity of the death count:

I learnt today that the official figures in France only cover deaths occurring at Hospitals. People dying at home are not counted (probably not many) and older people in retirement houses are not counted either! The death toll may be as high as 20-30% in places where very old people are hosted, and over a hundred places may have been infected (out of 700 in Paris/suburbs). In other words, the real death toll may be significantly higher than the current official death count (1,100 as of today).

#3399 10 months ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

Just another country making us look bad.

To be accurate, I'd rather say "One of the few countries making us look bad".

Very, very few governments chose the right path.
And NZ had the chance to have more time to consider all options.
Yet, they took the right decision.

#3422 10 months ago
Quoted from o-din:

I'm just holding my breath summer will indeed be this shit's enemy.

Don't bet your life on it - at best it's delaying contagion, but not stopping it. Check Brazil for example. Same in France for our Islands in the tropics. Number of cases increasing. Unsure how many are "imported" vs local transmission though.

#3453 10 months ago
Quoted from Pinballer67:

IMO, ALL western governments should have forced us into strict quarantine 2-3 weeks ago

I am in self-imposed near-complete quarantine for nearly two weeks, and on official quarantine for 10 days now. So not too far from this 2-3 weeks estimate.

My guess is more like it should have been done early February, with a South Korea-like approach starting as early as mid-January. Hunt every case on your homeland, trace all contacts, use cell-phone geo-tracking, Isolate and test potential contacts, etc...

I remember well talking to friends and family early Feb to prepare for the worst (I remember well when, my mother passed away on Feb 10). No one would implement social distancing and I had to (rather abruptly) refuse shaking hands - including, and especially, with old people.

#3608 10 months ago
Quoted from wrb1977:

There is a lot of very good information in this thread, I have learned a lot and it has made me think about and understand opposing views. I am very appreciative this thread exists.

Thanks - if anyone wants to filter most of the political talk and seek useful information, don't hesitate to read the "key posts" in that thread (currently 43 out of 3600...). To read them, select "TOPIC INDEX (KEY POSTS)"

#3906 10 months ago

Stats based on cell phone location indicate that 17% of inhabitants of the Greater Paris area have left the city between March 14 and 16.
Add to that that there is virtually no tourist left as compared to the usual 100,000 on a given day. So over 1,100,000 people less than usual.

Could you have been good news for the local Parisians hospitals... but they are still flooded with patients.

And these 1 million Parisians are now actively spreading their germs nation wide.
Population of an island on the Atlantic coast (Ile de Ré) increased by 30%. And I am not even sure there is a hospital there!

#3910 10 months ago

Summary of our current knowledge on Coronavirus vaccine development (extract from a prestigious and highly read scientific journal, Nature, March 26 issue - probably one of the most reliable sources available):

- Do people develop immunity?
Most researchers assume that people who have recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection will be protected from reinfection. But evidence is needed. In studies, laboratory animals do not seem to become reinfected when exposed to the virus for a second time. Researchers will be looking for evidence that humans react in the same way. How long any immunity might last is another big unknown.

- What kind of immune response should vaccine developers look for?
A clinical trial that began last week focuses on a vaccine developed by Moderna, a company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The vaccine consists of an RNA molecule that is designed to train the immune system to make antibodies that recognize and block the protein that the virus uses to enter human cells. However, a successful SARS-CoV-2 vaccine might also need to prompt the body to generate antibodies that block other viral proteins, or make T cells that can kill infected cells.

- How do we know whether a vaccine will work?
Normally, vaccines go into human trials after tests for safety and effectiveness in animals. But vaccines being developed by US drug firms Moderna and Inovio Pharmaceuticals are being tested in animals in parallel with human phase I trials. Vaccinated animals will be infected with the virus to see whether they are protected. As researchers learn more about the infection from human and animal studies, they will get a better sense of which vaccines are likely to work best.

- Will it be safe?
Researchers’ main safety concern is to avoid ‘disease enhancement’, in which vaccinated people who do get infected develop a more severe form of the disease than people who have never been vaccinated. Larger human studies of the Moderna vaccine will begin only once human and animal studies confirm that the vaccine is safe.

By Ewen Callaway

#3911 10 months ago

... And from the same source (Nature, March 26), Covid-19 vs other diseases.
Remember that both R0 and fatality rates are only estimates - they will be refined over time.

At first glance, Covid-19 is not as bad as it seems, but is still a bit more deadly than the 1918 flu (the "Spanish flu") and at least as contagious. And this 1918-1919 outbreak killed dozen of millions !

Capture d’écran 2020-03-27 à 09.40.09 (resized).png
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#4081 10 months ago

As one of the moderators, let me explain why I personally think this thread is useful and why I advocate keeping it open, despite the hard-to-avoid "political bs" and multiple moderation notices:

It may help saving lives later and I hope you will find useful information (again, look for key posts if you want to decrease noise...) and perhaps some comfort.

Believe me, I now live in a ghost town and it's kind of scary.

It would be so much easier for us to close this thread!

#4087 10 months ago
Quoted from Wickerman2:

I’ve been removed several times but keep coming back! Like a virus

I wish I had this "eject virus" option for covid-19!

Capture d’écran 2020-03-27 à 17.06.04 (resized).png
#4095 10 months ago
Quoted from Astill:

Does anyone have facts about the usefulness of ventilators? I heard that 95% of the people in Wuhan placed on ventilators ended up dying. I dont know if its true or not .

Straight from the local hospitals - from my neighbor is a E.R. doctor and from a report yesterday from the person in charge of hospitals in France: Ventilators save lives... but sadly not all of them - not even close, but not as bad as 5%. The longer you have to stay with vent assistance, the lower your chances of making it.
Also depends on your age.

#4365 10 months ago

Want to try something different during confinement?

Several opera houses are offering video recording of chosen recent/current (which had to be postponed) performances.

Trailer for Don Giovanni for example:

The full opera is available on the Opera de Paris website until this Sunday... but it's 3 hours long!
https://www.operadeparis.fr/magazine/don-giovanni-replay

Warning: it's sung in Italian with French sub-titles: may be a bit hard to follow

#4752 9 months ago

About the persistence time of the coronavirus on various surfaces, very disparate / conflicting results have been reported.

This scientific article (link here: https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext) summarizes findings from different labs and compares decontamination protocols.

The consensus is that it lasts longer on glass, plastic and steel (several days). Your takeaway pizza in a cardboard box is only a bit safer... but if I were you, I would put it back in the oven for 30' at 170°F or more before eating it.

Abstract:
Currently, the emergence of a novel human coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has become a global health concern causing severe respiratory tract infections in humans. Human-to-human transmissions have been described with incubation times between 2-10 days, facilitating its spread via droplets, contaminated hands or surfaces. We therefore reviewed the literature on all available information about the persistence of human and veterinary coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces as well as inactivation strategies with biocidal agents used for chemical disinfection, e.g. in healthcare facilities. The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62–71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute. Other biocidal agents such as 0.05–0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective. As no specific therapies are available for SARS-CoV-2, early containment and prevention of further spread will be crucial to stop the ongoing outbreak and to control this novel infectious thread.

#4755 9 months ago
Quoted from mooch:

There ya go![quoted image]

But see the bright side, now it's 100% safe

Quoted from Who-Dey:

It sucks if you cant even go get a pizza without worrying about coronavirus germs on it

Same problem may apply for anything delivered at your home. Processed food or not. Once you accept delivery, remove the external wrapping and throw it away immediately. Then wash your hands extensively and and clean your door knobs... If the goods are not perishable, leave them aside for a few days (a cellar is cool - just try to remember when everything was bought) or sanitize them immediately.

There is a delicate balance to find between paranoia and carelessness.

#4842 9 months ago

Not many people have faced both 1918-1919 H1N1 ("Spanish Flu") and Covid-19.

This lady survived (and remembered) the former, but not the latter:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/29/spanish-flu-survivor-dies-from-coronavirus-aged-108

#5233 9 months ago
Quoted from Daditude:

It's tough not drinking these days...at least for me.

Well, at least one moderator stays sober at this time of day: it's morning here, and I generally avoid wine or cognac before Lunch...at least

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#5311 9 months ago

Moderation notice:
Please no more comments on Who-Dey admitting he was wrong... We got it and he got it ! Thanks.

#5388 9 months ago

Can you believe this ??

Red Bull executive wanted to deliberately contaminate F1 drivers

An official of the Austrian Formula 1 team Red Bull Racing admitted to having proposed a strategy of voluntary contamination of the drivers with the new coronavirus, so that they can be immunized from it for the start of the season.

Helmut Marko, one of the leaders of the stable where he is in charge of the young pilots sector, said on Sunday on Austrian television ORF that he had offered to "organize a camp for them to be infected". "They are in excellent health and like that, they would have been ready to start the season," he added, before adding that his idea had "not been well received".

#5748 9 months ago

Summary of a paper published in The Guardian (UK) summarizing findings published by UK scientists in The Lancet (a famous medical journal) and providing updated stats on % casualty, hospitalization...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/new-coronavirus-study-reveals-increased-risks-from-middle-age
Covid-19 danger jumps from middle age

The first comprehensive study of Covid-19 deaths and hospitalisations in mainland China has revealed in stark detail the increase in risk for coronavirus patients once they reach middle age. Four per cent of infected people in their 40s needed hospital treatment, as did more than 8% of patients in their 50s. More than 18% of those in their 80s and above needed hospitalisation after catching the virus. Only 0.04% of 10 to 19-year-olds had to go into hospital if infected.

Full paper downloadable at https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930243-7

#5749 9 months ago

Now some stats about confirmed positive cases vs age:

Australia:

21% of confirmed cases are aged 20 to 29
16% of cases are aged 30 to 39
31% of cases are 60 or older

New Zealand:
26% of confirmed cases are aged 20 to 29
14% of cases are aged 30 to 39
21% of cases are 60 or older

US:
29% were aged 20 to 44
18% were aged 55 to 64
25% were aged 65 to 84

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/australians-in-their-20s-have-more-confirmed-cases-of-coronavirus-than-any-other-age-group

#7120 9 months ago

Not going to comment on Bikini avatars

Just a (different kind of) video I'd like to share. The National French Orchestra made a recording of Ravel's Bolero with musicians posting their performances to YouTube while confined to their homes as the country imposed lockdown.

A short interview (where you may hear a subtle 'int of ze famous French accent)

The performance itself - you can skip the first 48 seconds:

#7126 9 months ago
Quoted from screaminr:

Just wondering is this too risque to use as an avatar ?

Ah pinsiders... you give 'em a little bit of freedom and we all know how it ends !

#7246 9 months ago
Quoted from underlord:

My take away: I REALLY need supplies, but if only I could save $10-20 on a $300 stock up. Sure. Ok. Enjoy the empty shelves then I guess?

It's not too bad here, and we are approaching 3 weeks of lockdown. Things were worse at the beginning and the suppliers adapted. I guess hoarders went out of space too. Now we can find nearly everything (although not always from your favorite brand). Things I still have trouble to find :
- flour: we use it to make our bread instead of going to the bakery... bread is important here - I mean essential. Give a French bread, wine and cheese and he'll survive forever!
- fresh fish - very limited choice
- ink cartridges. That one I did not see coming! But with school closed, people print far more than usual...

No more shortage of toilet paper, bleach, rice, pasta, etc...

#7633 9 months ago

About the importance of the pandemic, I'm trying to reconcile conflicting numbers and make sense out of them - no wonder people are confused.

- As of today, about 0.1% of US and French populations have been tested positive (it's actually a bit less than 0.1% in the US, a bit more in France). We know there are more than that, but we don't know if it's 2x, 5x, 10x...

- "Only" 65,000 thousands have already died so far worldwide (officially - again we know the real death toll is higher, and I am not only talking about China- it will actually take years to have an accurate estimate). That's far less than the flu.

But then let me give two facts that put again these numbers in perspective:

- We never had so many people in emergency care in France. As compared to accurate stats accumulated for at least 50 years. Never. Even when compared to years where the flu was really bad.

- When looking at total number of deaths in France in March - all causes, just raw stats, so pretty accurate - the number of people dying in areas most affected has jumped to 50%+ as compared to last year. And April will be more deadly. Also remember car traffic decreased a lot, so number of deaths related decreased as well. In other words, Covid19 has caused a doubling or so of total deaths in heavily infected areas.

The last two stats are reliable - no bias, no manipulation possible on cause of hospitalization or death, just raw figures.

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#7841 9 months ago

Reasons to hope: 3 weeks after official lockdown in France, we start to see less people arriving every day in ICU:

Capture d’écran 2020-04-06 à 06.15.57 (resized).png
#7983 9 months ago

About hydroxychloroquine: we do not have yet in France the results of a conclusive clinical trial.
The one performed by Didier Raoult did not include a proper control group...
I am not saying it does not work... just that it is not YET approved here (except for very ill patients and in a hospital environment).

At least 3 people died in France because of hydroxychloroquine self-administration. All because of severe side effects on heart.
If you have any preexisting heart condition DO NOT TAKE IT WITHOUT MEDICAL SUPERVISION.

25
#8223 9 months ago
Quoted from Tubes:

Then it's immoral, and morality trumps ethics.

I can comment on the way clinical trials are done as I work on preclinical studies (on cancer, not on coronavirus).

There is nearly always the need for a control group - these patients will get the best known treatment, the others the molecule X of unknown efficacy. So if there is a treatment, it would be totally unethical not to give anything.

These studies are often "double-blind": neither the patient or medical staff know if you receive X, or the traditional (currently available, approved) treatment, or a placebo (if there is no current treatment, or if the disease is not severe). The reason is to avoid what we call a placebo effect - the patient's psychology does play an important role in his/her fight against the disease. It's also meant to avoid an unconscious bias from the staff (paying more attention to the patients who received compound X). But of course someone is keeping a record of who receives what!

The two groups are randomized and made as close as possible to each other (same age range, risk factors, initial severity of the disease). For cancer trials, patient enrolled have generally experienced prior treatment protocols, tumor relapses and are already weakened. You don't try a new drug on a recently discovered tumor, especially if there are existing treatments that provide a benefit for the patient. You tend to select patients for which not many options are left. The protocol is different when you are setting up a trial against a minor affliction or against ebola for example !

Patients are voluntary and give explicit consent - you spend time explaining the protocol, make sure they know the risks, potential secondary effects and potential benefits of the compound. You also explain what to expect if they do not enter the clinical trial. As a patient, I would definitely try to enter a trial if my current chances of survival are close to zero. May be not if the existing treatment offers me real chances.

Clinical trials are generally organized in Phase I, II, III... In phase I you try to determine the dose to be used, keeping toxicity at acceptable levels ("acceptable" has a different meaning when dealing with a life-threatening pathology) and do escalating doses - for cancer you will tend to select the maximal tolerated dose.

For Covid-19 trials, as chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine are already FDA-approved against other pathologies, you have a good idea of what dose to use, what side effects to expect and which patients are at a greater risk of experiencing them (so, at least initially, you will tend to avoid including them in the study, as the risk/benefit ratio is not as good. If compound X is later shown to be a miracle drug, you may reconsider but will pay special attention to these patients). Given the emergency, you want to test as soon as possible if the dose is effective or not.

It generally takes months (if not years in the case of solid tumors) to get a reliable result, but there are two notable exceptions:
1) compound is highly toxic and you observe severe side effects or deaths. Trial stops immediately. Results are forwarded to all other places in which similar trials are about to start or just started.
2) compound is so effective that there is a clear obvious benefit for the patients who receive compound X. In this case (which is unfortunately rare) the control group is immediately stopped and you start giving them compound X as well. It would then become unethical to continue treating them with a protocol now known to be inferior (but of course you did not know that when the trial started).

Otherwise you will keep an objective record of all events during the trial, trying to be as objective as possible (survival, tumor size, virus titer, weight, blood constants, etc...). Even side effects are classified with an objective I-IV scale depending on severity.

If the benefit of treatment X is modest, you will need a larger sample size (and again be sure the two groups are properly matched) to get confident results.

For chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine we know it's not 1) and if 2) is true we should know very, very soon.

In other words, in medicine, science does NOT trump ethics. Doctors (M.D.) do their best to save patients and mitigate risk/benefits. Clinical trials are not made by mad scientists !

#8322 9 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

Are you going start flying again?

Yes - no choice.

Quoted from cottonm4:

What about a cruise ship?

No f***ing way !! Would probably decline even if it was a gift...

#8538 9 months ago
Quoted from Wickerman2:

? Bad news:
L'association hydroxychloroquine-l'azithromycine, "nous avons déjà dû interrompre le traitement" annonce le chef du service de cardiologie du CHU de Nice
French hospital halts hydroxychloroquine treatment study due to cardiac side effects
Where’s the resident French source?

Here comes Ze French source!

I checked.
This is not (yet) national media news, but was reported in a local newspaper. Take it with a grain of salt until confirmed. But I checked, the Dr. Ferrari mentioned in this article does exist, and is indeed a cardiologist working in this hospital.

Just to translate one important §:
"When hydroxychloroquine is given alone, the cardiac risk is very low. On the other hand, the antibiotic (azithromycin) which is systematically prescribed in combination with hydroxychloroquine in the anti-Covid protocol also favors these abnormalities. Cardiological risk is then potentiated, a fortiori, if there are other associated drugs which have the same undesirable effect, if the oxygenation of the blood is not done well or if the potassium in the blood is low. if prescribed, must be prescribed with ECG monitoring at D0 and D2 minimum. "

https://www.nicematin.com/sante/coronavirus-nous-avons-deja-du-interrompre-le-traitement-de-hydroxychloroquine-azithromycine-au-chu-de-nice-489118

In other words, what has been stopped is the association between hydroxychloroquine and an antibiotic. Sometimes the combination of two relative safe drugs may become very unsafe.

Bottom line: DO NOT TAKE THESE DRUGS ON SELF-MEDICATION. Ask for medical advice first

I can't read Swedish, but it seems some Swedish hospital have stopped using chloroquine as well.

#8652 9 months ago
Quoted from BShing:

The site Medmastery did an analysis of the French study about Hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 patients. Wow.

Leonid Schneider has a blog "for better science" where he comments / exposes flawed science. (Leonid is often controversial and should rather be considered as an "accusation lawyer" than a fair judge. I still find Leonid's analyses worth reading). The one on Didier Raoult is definitely worth reading...

https://forbetterscience.com/2020/03/26/chloroquine-genius-didier-raoult-to-save-the-world-from-covid-19/

#9803 9 months ago
Quoted from Halfwasted:

Not sure if this falls as political, if it does, disregard.

Moderation notice:
Yes it does!
Please disregard, thanks.

#10214 9 months ago
Quoted from Utesichiban:

Sweden is the country to watch. They are experimenting withb he herd immunity theory.. early returns aren't looking too promising.

Yeah - it's been kind of mystery to me. But it was not an absolute disaster either, if you compare it to Norway (11,400 vs 6,600 cases as of today).
I have read somewhere that, while the rules are less strict in Sweden, people respect them and support recommendations. Meanwhile, in France...

#10766 9 months ago

For those interested in clinical trials against Covid, here is an interesting survey on what's is currently being tested, and how fast it is changing.
https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8247/13/4/65

"As of March 28, 202 clinical trials could be retrieved with the search term “COVID-19” in the database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine. The number jumped to 388 as of April 8. Among these trials are:
- 7 studies involving human plasma;
- 11 studies involving traditional Chinese medicine (TMC);
- 14 studies involving stem cells, mostly mesenchymal stem cells;
- 16 studies involving dietary complements, including vitamin C, and honey;
- 27 studies dedicated to vaccines;
- 52 studies involving proteins, including commercially available monoclonal antibodies;
- 70 studies involving antiviral drugs;
- More than 100 studies involving other small molecules."

Plaquenil (= Hydroxychloroquine) and Aralen (Chloroquine) are included (alone or in combination) in 58 and 23 trials, respectively.
Beware: regarding Hydroxychloroquine and Chloroquine, "there is a huge confusion in the public, as well as among politicians and even some scientists, about those two molecules. That confusion ultimately led to people accidently overdosing"

#11651 9 months ago
Quoted from statsdoc:

If you all want a serious read about where this virus is likely to take us ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/coronavirus-america-future.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
It is a summary of over 20 experts and the findings are quite illuminating. .

Interesting indeed - thanks for sharing, even if depressing.

Quoted from statsdoc:

I believe it should be available as the NY Times has made their coronavirus material available to all.

It is - you need to (free) register to access it though.

#12086 9 months ago

Here are some numbers I find interesting about cumulative death toll in France (Y-axis) over time, since March 1st. 3 years are compared.
All causes of death combined - no bias.

Bottom line: Covid-19 is now causing here a significant deviation from the "normal" death count. (and this does not even take into account the fact that we see less deadly car accident due to lock down)

Capture d’écran 2020-04-24 à 18.47.31 (resized).png
#12333 9 months ago
Quoted from Mizzou0103:

It’s human clinics trials that won’t start until September. I’m assuming that means Phase III. The first phase is animal. The second phase is small human population tests for dose finding. Third is large scale human trials that determine efficacy and safety.

Phase I is already on human subjects - as soon as you talk about "clinical trial" it's performed on humans.
Tests on animals are done before that, it's called a pre-clinical phase.

I tried to explain how clinical trials work in this post : https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/the-official-coronavirus-containment-thread/page/165#post-5580569

#12754 8 months ago
Quoted from o-din:

Opening the beaches in OC last weekend resulted in a spike of new cases bringing the death total for the entire county to 45 now. A little more than double what it was a month ago.

To be fair (I am NOT saying opening the beaches was a good idea), people infected last week-end are unlikely to be dead by now - it will probably take a few weeks to see if it had an impact.

1 week later
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#13406 8 months ago
Quoted from screaminr:

We also have bird eating spiders , fun for everyone

And the only mod awake at this time is the dumb French one... who happens to have a phobia to spiders.

The worse is that whatever I do (approve or not) the post, I still see these eight-legged freaks !

Going to ask Robin for a raise !

#13478 8 months ago
Quoted from BillySastard:

In case anyone here needs a hug.

Geez...
- One thing is to ask to reopen in order to go to work, in order to feed your children and keep a roof. I get it, I sympathize for those who desperately need their jobs back.
- Another is advocating virus-spreading behavior

#13570 8 months ago
Quoted from wrb1977:

Can anyone explain how the virus knows it’s the weekend?

Information / death count is not collected and forwarded as efficiently during week ends?

#13657 8 months ago
Quoted from poppapin:

The whole purpose of the lockdown in the beginning was to flatten the curve, correct? Well a lot of states have a downtrend and are allowed to open with restrictions. I don't think there is anything wrong with this. We cannot remain shutdown until there is a vaccine!! My .02

I don't think (most) people would argue with that. No way we (you) can remain in shutdown until a vaccine is available for everyone.

But this does not mean people should pretend it never happened and stop taking minimal precautions.
It's unclear to me how much of mitigation factor summer is. Definitely not 100% (see Brazil...) so I'd wait a bit before considering it's gone for good... and remain somewhat paranoid in the meantime. Washing you hands often and keep some social distancing won't cost you or the economy too much.

#13717 8 months ago
Quoted from Kiwipinhead:

Level 2 in 5 hours, BBQ and Beers with mates this weekend after 7 weeks of lockdown. [quoted image]

Lucky you ! You probably live in the only country in the world where you can forget about social distancing without endangering anyone.

#13746 8 months ago
Quoted from Deaconblooze:

If nothing else, this whole thing should highlight how much time and energy is wasted on commutes, pointless meetings, etc.

True, but I also saw the emergence of pointless Zoom meetings and increased bureaucratic communication.

16
#13838 8 months ago

To be fair, these are virologists working in a BSL-4 lab - the highest level of safety, used for the most deadly viruses like Ebola. There are only a handful of labs like this one in each country. For example, only one civilian in France. To work there, you need specific training and a specific accreditation. Performing experiments is complicated, cumbersome, slow and extremely expensive (maintenance / certification costs are huge).

SARS-CoV2 requires level 3 - same as HIV for example. The virology lab would look less fancy but access is (thankfully) still heavily restricted. You still need specific training and an accreditation (both for staff and equipment, and not all BSL-3 labs are authorized for SARS-CoV2). This is one of the bottlenecks for experiments currently done on this virus: not enough trained staff available.

At level 2 (at which I am accredited) you can work on defective versions of these viruses, which can't replicate for example; they would be able to infect one cell but would not replicate (You make damn sure first they can't recombine with some genetic material around to produce a full virus!).

At level 1, you basically work on non pathogenic material - such as normal cells. What you want to do there is to keep your cells healthy and free from external contaminations (bacteria, fungi, viruses... human cells are fragile).

12
#13928 8 months ago

Two studies published today, one performed in Europe, another one in China conclude that hydroxychloroquine is not helpful.

"the results of this study do not support its use in patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 who require oxygen"
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1844

"Administration of hydroxychloroquine did not result in a significantly higher probability of negative conversion than standard of care alone in patients admitted to hospital with mainly persistent mild to moderate covid-19"
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1849

Finally note that "Adverse events were higher in hydroxychloroquine recipients than in non-recipients"

The BMJ stands for The British Medical Journal, and this is a respectable publication, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_BMJ

In other words, hydroxychloroquine does not work on patients heavily affected (the first study) nor on those with mild symptoms (the second article), and it does have adverse side effects.
Curious to read what the self-proclaimed French expert on hydroxychloroquine (Didier Raoult) will answer... So much easier to design clinical trials when you do not have a control group!

#13950 8 months ago
Quoted from srmonte:

Please gents continue the face mask etiquette in my place.

Advocating wearing a mask or keeping social distances is not the same thing as as encouraging people not to work...

#14069 8 months ago
Quoted from metallik:

y'all mods working real time

We are just machines and sentient A.I.

#14121 8 months ago
Quoted from razorsedge:

If the aim is to get closer to "realistic" mortality rates first we would need to multiply the "official confirmed" infection number by at least

The most reliable marker is to compare total death count over time - all causes considered. You can plot weekly number of deaths as a function of time and compare it to previous years. I have seen the graph in France, and Covid-19 translates into a significant increase over a few weeks. We are now back to basal levels thanks to a 8-week lockdown. The only time during the last 20 years when a very significant peak was found was during a heat wave in summer 2003, which killed 13,000 people in a matter of a few weeks (as compared to an estimated death count of 27,000 for Covid-19 for a current population of 67 million, about 1/5 of the US)

Even then, this peak is only visible in the most affected areas, where it led to a large increase in mortality of up to 200% - 3 times more death than normal. In comparison, the areas more or less free of the virus experienced a slightly lower than normal mortality, in part because of a 50% global decrease in car accident fatalities - traffic was very, very light ! So obviously even at the scale of a country of a size 15x smaller than the US, the virus was not felt the same way everywhere. At least here people in the spared regions don't believe it's fake because they did not experience saturated hospital and emergency burials...

It's also hard to compare countries (and perhaps states or counties), where the criteria used to include death as corona death may differ. For example some countries count every suspicious death with Covid symptoms as a Covid death, while other countries would require a positive PCR confirmation. As a result, the case fatality ratio is higher in Belgium than in Germany. Both ways make sense, but this difference makes comparisons difficult.

#14125 8 months ago
Quoted from taylor34:

That's interesting. Is that the same across Europe or just France? Is the 'hoax' thing solely a US thing?

Unfortunately no country is spared from it, but I suppose the % of people believing in absurd theories differ. Some people were against (and are still against) the lockdown in Europe too. But most would not go as far as claiming the fear of the virus was based on fake claims with an artificially increased death count.

#14140 8 months ago

Very interesting interview of the Chinese government's senior medical adviser, Dr. Zhong (as stated in this article, he is a highly respected figure in China thanks to his role in the 2003 SARS outbreak)
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/16/asia/zhong-nanshan-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

#14388 8 months ago
Quoted from screaminr:

as I've said before the US and Australia are mate

Two colleagues and friends of mine are Aussies who went back home after spending more than a decade in the US. One of them told me that coming back to Australia was like bringing back the Space shuttle to earth - you have to calculate your angle of descent precisely, or you may either bounce back on the atmosphere or burn...

I miss the time when I could visit Sydney and Wollongong. Not sure when I can come back!

(and sorry for off-topic posting)

#14458 8 months ago

From a study (on 96 032 patients!) published in the Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

"We were unable to confirm a benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, when used alone or with a macrolide, on in-hospital outcomes for COVID-19. Each of these drug regimens was associated with decreased in-hospital survival and an increased frequency of ventricular arrhythmias when used for treatment of COVID-19"

#14654 8 months ago

From the journal Science, an epidemiology study concluded that:
- 3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.7% die, ranging from 0.001% in those <20 years of age (ya) to 10.1% in those >80ya.
- Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women.
- The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction).
- By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 2.8 million (range: 1.8–4.7) people, or 4.4% (range: 2.8–7.2) of the population, will have been infected. Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.

#14768 8 months ago
Quoted from sven:

In the Netherlands we think the number of deaths are higher than the official reported Covid deaths. (...) I think Belgium also counts suspicious non-tested deaths, so that's why it seems Covid infection over there is worse than in The Netherlands, even though that may not be true.

Agreed on all counts. Countries (and perhaps states or even counties) have different ways of counting Covid-deaths. This can make comparisons very difficult. Belgium reported over 9,000 deaths for 57,000 positive cases, Germany 8,000 deaths for 180,000 confirmed cases... and Russia only 3,600 deaths for 353,000 cases !?

This is why getting statistics on total deaths, all causes combined, gives you an unbiased view on coronavirus toll. We will only be able to get a global view on coronavirus impact once we get these numbers, which should be available in many countries (forget about North Korea, Iran...) You will find below two graphics, showing daily number of reported deaths in France between March 1 and May 11. Three years were compared. Lockdown started mid-March when our hospitals started to be overwhelmed. People don't die instantly and stayed 11 days on average on ventilators - the peak was shifted.In simple words, around April 1st, instead of 1,700-1,800 people dying every day, it reached 2,700-2,800... 1,000 extra deaths per day.

I have seen somewhere a similar graph where 20 years were plotted - this peak is one of the two that showed up in 20 years - the other one was related to a heat wave in August 2003 (13,000 deaths in 3 weeks).

Capture d’écran 2020-05-26 à 05.44.14 (resized).png

Also remember these are global stats. France is relatively small - area 15x smaller than the US - yet big enough so that enormous differences were found between various parts. The second graph shows over mortality over 6 weeks, in each administrative county ("département"). From +92% to... less than 0. In other words, in the worst places, mortality nearly doubled. I live near Paris (where we reached + 74%) and close to a hospital: the only traffic I could hear were ambulance sirens and I heard them far too often. But elsewhere, it was as if the epidemic did not exist. Thanks to very limited car traffic, some counties actually experienced a decrease in total deaths.

Capture d’écran 2020-05-26 à 05.45.47 (resized).png

This is why you may have very different perpectives on the LOCAL impact of the pandemic. Differences in a country as large as the US must have been even more pronounced.

#14769 8 months ago

... and now a word of cautious optimism: the lockdown in France was partially released on May 11; 15 days ago. If the virus is still actively circulating, we should see (should already have seem ?) the beginning of a resurgence of new cases. So far, so good... Fingers crossed. We will know for sure in two more weeks.
Worst places to work seem to be slaughter houses / meat packing places. The virus seems to enjoy confined and cold places...

#14816 8 months ago

Sweden approach to Covid-19 (no lockdown) came with a price... 4,125 deaths for a population of only 10 millions.
(as compared to ≈200 and 300 deaths for neighboring countries, Norway and Finland)

Capture d’écran 2020-05-27 à 09.56.29 (resized).png
1 week later
#15198 7 months ago

By 1 June Covid-19 had prompted more than 42,700 academic papers and 3,100 clinical trials...
https://researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-world-2020-6-covid-19-publications-mirror-virus-s-spread-across-world/

... unfortunately, not all of these papers are good.

We are witnessing a diarrhea of hastily written papers with questionable protocols and lack of controls.
Even worse are some "preprints" published in open archives before peer review.

No wonder this is confusing.

#15213 7 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

New cases keep trending up while the daily deaths look like the hospitals look like they are getting somewhat better in controlling the deaths.

Possibly. Although I have a different (non-exclusive) explanation: now that the worst is behind us and testing capacity has increased, facilities start testing asymptomatic people rather than sick people. These new cases may correspond to individuals who would never experience severe symptoms... or none at all.

#15285 7 months ago

Here is the graphic I talked about but could not find. Sorry it's in French, but I guess you can understand most of it.
This the mortality daily rate in France over the last 20 years. All causes combined.

As you can see, the profiles for each year are more or less reproducible over the months - slightly less people die during summer than during winter. Differences are slightly higher during winter, depending on how bad the flu was.

But there are two obvious anomalies :
- the heat wave in August 2003 gave a sharp peak
- the current COVID-19 pandemic - year 2020 is in red.
Integrating the area of the curve above background should give a fair idea of the total death toll of Covid-19 (even if cause of death is not always known or accurate)

As you can see, we are now back to "normal". Fingers crossed.
Capture d’écran 2020-06-09 à 18.31.43 (resized).png

#15287 7 months ago
Quoted from Mr68:

Sorry if my original comment seemed ungrateful.

No worry - I did not read it as ungrateful !

Quoted from Mr68:

Like it or not, please consider that politics is a part of the scientific community in the form of human nature.

Understand that the Cardinal Sin of the "average" scientist is Pride.
Not greed.
Not power.
Most don't care about politics, except to promote their agenda which is (sadly) more often to inflate their ego than to save mankind...

The Covid-19 crisis has been a unique opportunity for some scientist to be in the spotlight. Some were good, others not so much. Sadly, in France, the most prominent figure has been Didier Raoult.

#15320 7 months ago

Very interesting read, thanks. Extracts: "we estimate that there would be roughly 465 × the observed number of confirmed cases in China, 17 × in Italy, and 14 × in the US by the end of our sample if large-scale anti-contagion policies had not been deployed"

Also interesting is the analysis of the impact of individual policies - 22/29 were found to be efficient. 7 were not. For example, closing schools had little or no impact on propagation in France (it seems that, contrary to what we feared, children are not strong propagators of the virus).

#15329 7 months ago
Quoted from JimB:

Sweden did not fail. Their hospitals were not overwhelmed

Define "did not fail"?
- Sweden: 4795 deaths (as of today)
- Finland: 324
- Norway: 235

Keeping in mind that that the Population of Finland (5.5 millions) + Norway (5.3 millions) > Sweden.
In other words, Sweden strategy costed over 4000 additional lives, for a population of only 10.2 millions.

It will be interesting to see how much these three economies will be affected and, assuming Sweden fare better than Norway or Finland, how much money was saved thanks to the sacrifice of 4000 people. Then you'll know how much a life was worth.

#15412 7 months ago

Stunning ballet dancers in a deserted Amsterdam

(found in this article :https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2020/jun/12/lockdown-dance-online-videos)

#15531 7 months ago

Razoredge, Tranquilize: please keep the thread on topic / take it to PM, thanks.

#15586 7 months ago

Interesting: John Hopkins university data looks slightly different:

Capture d’écran 2020-06-17 à 08.48.43 (resized).png
#15670 7 months ago
Quoted from Powdevil:

but, it’s a hell of alot better than 1000 dying every day in New York and New Jersey alone.

Objectively, yes, the overall trend is good - see the graphics pasted below for the US. But this may hide important state-to-state differences.
Cause of concern is that the downward trend is slower than elsewhere - see France for example. Italy, France, Belgium, Spain have all managed to bring the death toll to very low levels.

(source: https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2020/05/05/coronavirus-age-mortalite-departements-pays-suivez-l-evolution-de-l-epidemie-en-cartes-et-graphiques_6038751_4355770.html?utm_source=old_tracker)

USA:
US (resized).png

France:
France (resized).png
(Peak on April 15 in France was due to incorporating deaths in nurse homes - until then, only people dying in Hospital were counted)

#15693 7 months ago

Sorry for off-topic posting - been listening for a lot of classical music while I was working at home during lockdown. I posted a few links to concerts / ballets during that time.

Here is now a concert recorded in 2016, available on Arte.tv this week only.

Chief: Philippe Jordan
Soprano: Sondra Radvanovsky

https://www.arte.tv/fr/videos/068385-000-A/soiree-lyrique-a-l-opera-de-paris/
(It seems the link works in the US too - I checked with my VPN)

Listen to the best part at 14'40" : Vissi d'arte from Giacomo Puccini.
It's not long (4 minutes) but it's pure ecstasy, even if sad.

You can ALSO find this short part on YouTube.

#15733 7 months ago

Came back to see some colleagues and friends today at my former place. Just learnt that the wife of an ex-colleague got infected nearly four months ago. 37-year old, zero extra risk factor (not obese, not even overweight, not diabetic... not anything).

Yes she survived, but it did not go that well for her. She has yet to recover. Climbing more than one flight of stairs is a near impossibility for her and although she makes every possible effort to get better, going to work is exhausting. Then comes the risk of depression when you don't even know what you are fighting, how to fight it, and if full recovery will occur in 4 weeks, 4 months, 4 years or... The fear of fighting an unknown enemy is not good.

Her husband, in the same year range, stayed with her after she left hospital but never became sick and does not have any antibody against Covid-19!

Take home message:
- There is a full range of options in between "dead" and "it's just the flu"
- No one has any idea why it went so bad for her, and why her husband avoided it.

As I tend to believe a fair fraction of pinsiders are older than 37 (I am myself barely older than that ) just remember that it's not simple as (die/survive). Until we understand why some people are so vulnerable to it, assume you are and be careful.

#15737 7 months ago
Quoted from phil-lee:

No matter the motivations, when leaders lie to us for our own good they assume it is necessary.
It is not necessary. Doing this adds suspicion and mistrust to anything else they may have to say.

If this is any consolation, it was the exact same thing in France. Health officials lied for a good reason (hospitals were already short of them). Of course it would have been better to say "We know you want one, but we need them for our most exposed staff - the frontline soldiers against the virus".

Even then, I'm not even sure people would have obeyed. Remember, to create a shortage, you only need a small fraction of the population hoarding as many as they could. Can you believe that, in the hospital nearby they had to store them in a safe place as some hospital employees were stealing masks to resell them ? Not even talking about low-pay grade employees...not janitors, but interns.

Another "Damn if you do, Damn if you don't" situation. The long term consequences of lying to your population are clearly bad - the short term consequences would have been bad. I suppose you have to weight your options - I am not judging. All I know is that I'm happy I was not in charge and I did not have to decide.

#15763 7 months ago
Quoted from Pinmeister:

You need to look more closely at the data. Although the number of cases is up 32%, the number of deaths is down 31%. T

This discrepancy (more positives cases / less deaths) can be the result of at least 3-non exclusive reasons. Two of them are good news, the last one not so much:

- Increased testing on asymptomatic carriers of the virus. GOOD
- Improved treatment on patients (dexamethasone + knowing what to do / what not to do with your patient): lower fatality ratio. GOOD
- A new surge in contaminations that will lead to a new peak of casualties in 3-4 weeks. NOT SO GOOD

I would not be surprised if all three hypotheses are true. Time will tell to what extent.

As for me, I am on the "(very) cautious optimism" side.

#15765 7 months ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

dr. Gizzard. He’s the real deal, vouched for by the mods.

Well, to be fair, I am not sure the mods got enough credentials in Health sciences to vouch for Dr. Gizzard's (or anyone else's) M.D. !

#15868 7 months ago

On Covid-19 you will find serious scientific articles, dead-wrong scientific articles and... this:

Why the pandemic unleashed a frenzy of toilet-paper buying
Personality traits help to explain why some people and not others hoarded a humdrum product in the face of a deadly virus.

People who felt seriously threatened by the COVID-19 pandemic are more likely to have stockpiled toilet paper in the pandemic’s early days than are those who were less worried about the disease.

As the new coronavirus began to spread across the Western Hemisphere this year, sales of toilet paper skyrocketed by up to 700% from February to March, prompting psychologists to argue about the reason for the buying spree.

Theo Toppe at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany, and his colleagues surveyed 996 people in 22 countries across North America and Europe about how they purchased and stored toilet paper. Participants also ranked the threat of COVID-19 on a ten-point scale and took a test that rated them on several core personality traits.

Those who placed COVID-19 high on the risk scale were the most likely to bulk-buy toilet paper. Emotional people tended to worry most about the disease and thus tended to stockpile. Conscientiousness was also linked to stockpiling.

However, the variables studied accounted for only 12% of the variability in hoarding, so other factors must also influence people’s purchasing, the researchers say.

#15931 6 months ago
Quoted from Oaken:

Current transmission rates by state. Red is bad (growing)

Interesting, although a three-color code could have been more accurate - given the relatively large error bars, values are significant different from 1 for "only" 20 states - I would have shown all others (in the middle) in orange.
- 12 of them have R significantly below 1 - under control.
- 8 of them with R significantly above 1, and well above 1 for 6 of them (starting with Oregon) - one really has to do something there... Values above 1.5 start to be scary: exponentials are nasty.

Does not mean nothing should be done for other states, especially large ones (TX, CA...) where local values may well be >>1.

#16026 6 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

Social Distancing: The airline industry's version of social distancing.
===============================================
" Middle seats and packed planes are coming back as airlines prepare to ease restrictions."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/economy/middle-seats-airlines-covid-19/index.html
" American Airlines (AAL), the world's largest carrier disclosed Friday that "customers may notice that flights are booked to capacity starting July 1." This change comes even as the number of Covid-19 cases rises in many states."
"United (UAL) has been willing to sell every possible seat throughout the pandemic. Both said they would notify passengers when a flight has more than 70% of its seats booked, and allow them to change to a less crowded flight. But that won't necessarily allow passengers with limited flexibility to avoid crowded flights."

I had to travel this week within EU for work. The "middle seat" restriction seems to have been eased here as well.
I was not sure, but as there was no way I would accept to seat next to someone else, I paid to upgrade to business class.
I can't be reimbursed but I don't regret the extra $250 I had to pay (round trip).
As a bonus, I even had a good (actually very good) meal on Czech airlines

Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris was like a ghost town. Most shops and lounges closed. Tight controls and long queues in Prague too. Travelling is not as fun as it used to be.

JLM

#16115 6 months ago

From the Scottish task force on Covid-19:

"The virus seems to transmit better indoors, particularly in damp, cold places. The latest evidence indicates that large clusters are associated with religious events spanning a number of days, worker dormitories, care homes, hospitals, prisons, ships, bars, conferences and food processing plants. Few clusters were reported in schools (...)

The evidence suggests that schools, and in particular children, are not significant drivers of transmission. Most “outbreaks” are very small (index case + 1) and in the larger ones the teachers were more involved than the children.

There have now been a number of very large outbreaks associated with meat processing plants, both in North America and Europe. These are not yet fully understood. Larger numbers of people brought into close proximity indoors seems likely to be the main factor. One theory is that the plants are noisy and so people come close and shout at each other, which may increase transmission of infection. Other factors may include a low-income workforce, often living in dormitories."

#16150 6 months ago

I wear glasses 100% of the time. Without them I am nearly blind!

I realized that not all masks are equal. Fogging is far more pronounced for some. Depends how tight is the contact below your glasses. Try different models.

#16282 6 months ago

Some interesting graph showing daily evolution of Covid deaths around the globe. (Sorry, it's in French)
Etats-Unis = USA
Espagne = Spain
Roy. Uni = UK
I guess you can figure out the rest

Now the early July average is about 4,900 deaths per day worldwide, mostly from the Americas.

Capture d’écran 2020-07-05 à 19.02.39 (resized).png
#16347 6 months ago
Quoted from RTR:

Seriously, what has 'medical science' ever done for us?!

This, may be ? Although to be fair medical science is not the only factor - access to food, better living and working conditions contribute as well.
(from https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy)

Capture d’écran 2020-07-07 à 14.24.51 (resized).png
#16383 6 months ago
Quoted from cmack750:

Good article yesterday at NY Times about Sweden (which never imposed restrictions), and what ended up happening, both from a virus spread and economic perspective, using it's neighboring countries that did lock down as comparisons.

Thanks! Very interesting read.

Take home message:
Sweden's relaxed policy costed an additional ≈ 5,000 lives (with a death count more or less 10 x Norway + Finland) for a net economical gain of... zero. Norway's projection for GDP is not worse than Sweden.

#16386 6 months ago

Hi everyone -
Friendly moderation notice: try not to make it personal (or take it to PM) and do not venture too close to prohibited topics... thanks.

#16398 6 months ago
Quoted from BadBrad97:

I think it is interesting when the media uses numbers from a pandemic while the numbers are still going up. You really can't compare Sweden which is obviously almost completely over the disease with a country which has had a lockdown to slow new cases and as soon as the lockdown is lifted, the numbers start going up.

I heard this tale several times.

The gap between Sweden and its neighbors (which implemented a lockdown) is not narrowing, it's growing.
And lockdown has been released quite some time ago in Norway - not sure about Finland.

Check these two curves below (and note the differences between the Y-axes)

Sweden
Capture d’écran 2020-07-08 à 17.01.24 (resized).png

Norway
Capture d’écran 2020-07-08 à 17.02.05 (resized).png

#16402 6 months ago
Quoted from razorsedge:

Is there one of those for Australia?

Yes, but... with "only" total 106 deaths, it's harder to see
from https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2020/05/05/coronavirus-age-mortalite-departements-pays-suivez-l-evolution-de-l-epidemie-en-cartes-et-graphiques_6038751_4355770.html
(sorry, in French)

Capture d’écran 2020-07-08 à 17.39.54 (resized).png
#16434 6 months ago
Quoted from OLDPINGUY:

Can we talk about what may be happening in your state with regard to school openings,

In France we have some evidence that primary schools contributed little to the early stages of the pandemic. It seems young children (<11 yr) are not good propagators of the virus. In fact, the rare cases of Covid contamination traced back to these schools seem to rather involve teacher-teacher contamination.
So reopening these schools or kindergarten may have little effect on the spreading of Covid-19 - as long as parents and teachers respect social distancing.

Situation may be different for junior high schools, high schools and universities.

#16694 6 months ago
Quoted from jwilson:

Funny, all the rest of the humans on the planet seem to be following guidelines...

Not really. Many people mostly forgot about Covid in France, as it never existed. We may have to pay for it soon or later.
And it's not even a political debate here. Just laziness ?

#16808 6 months ago

Levels of childhood immunisations against dangerous diseases such as measles, tetanus and diphtheria have dropped alarmingly during the Covid-19 pandemic, putting millions of children at risk, United Nations agencies said today.
In a joint report with Unicef, the World Health Organization (WHO) director general Tedros, Adhanom Ghebreyesus, warned:
"The avoidable suffering and death caused by children missing out on routine immunisations could be far greater than Covid-19 itself."

In other words: don't let Covid make you ignore health checks, especially if you have a chronic condition. Wear a mask, use hand sanitizer, but do NOT cancel appointments or treatments.

#16814 6 months ago

Some good news on the vaccine front:

A Covid-19 vaccine developed by the biotechnology company Moderna looks promising.
The vaccine has triggered immune responses in all of the 45 volunteers who received it in a Phase 1 trial, according to early results published yesterday. The study also revealed some mild side effects -- fatigue, chills, headache, muscle pain and pain at the injection site.
While the immune responses are encouraging, the scientists behind the trial cautioned it was not clear whether the levels they were seeing would actually protect against infection. A Phase 3 trial involving 30,000 volunteers is scheduled to start in less than two weeks. Moderna said if all goes well, it would be "on track to be able to deliver approximately 500 million doses per year, and possibly up to 1 billion doses per year, beginning in 2021."

Note: remember that, even if successful, a vaccine is a preventive measure, not a cure! It won't save you if you are contaminated in the meantime.
Until then, be paranoid if you are in a high-risk group, and be careful otherwise.
Washing hands won't hurt...

#17051 6 months ago
Quoted from skink91:

Dead / #Cases * 100 = fatality %
(143,792 / 3,960,583) x 100 = 3.63%
These are only USA figures, which are actually lower/better than the global death percentage.

You are both correct - case fatality rate is around 5% worldwide.
But a large majority of infected people are not diagnosed because they suffer very mild symptoms, or are even unaware of being infected.

From a few places where systematic testing was implemented (say, for example, everyone within a given area) it seems the IFR (infected fatality rate) is 0.5 - 1%. The older the population, the higher the %.

So, overall, your chances of dying from Covid are less than 1% on average, but will be higher than that if aged 60+, much higher if 75+ or with co-morbidity factors (obesity, diabetes, ...). Also note that this % improves over time: hospitals are better prepared and some antiviral compounds show some efficacy. If only for that, it was worth not being among the first infected.

What is currently unknown is the % of people NOT dying from it who will experience long lasting detrimental effects.
I know personally one lady, aged 37, who still suffers from chronic fatigue more than four months after being infected. Not fun.

1 week later
#17308 5 months ago

New cases in Europe (light grey: no data) July 6 - July 19
(number of new cases / 100,000 inhabitants)

As you can see, we are not doing equally well...

"moins de" = less than
"et plus" = or more

Excuse my French

Capture d’écran 2020-07-28 à 08.03.36 (resized).png

12
#17328 5 months ago
Quoted from Who-Dey:

Remember when all of you people talked about how stupid a certain person was for believing that Hydroxychloroquine was an effective drug to fight the Coronavirus?
https://twitter.com/carrieksada/status/1287978414104690688?s=21

Science is not made on Twitter, but by appropriate clinical trials done with proper controls.
This trial involved over 11,000 patients from 175 NHS hospitals in the UK. I wish it were not the case (as chloroquine is another (in)famous French "discovery" after all...) but... "We have concluded that there is no beneficial effect of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalised with COVID-19."

The large majority of patients will recover from Covid, hydroxychloroquine or not. So it's not surprising those who were treated with this "miracle" drug believed it helped. Same would apply with garlic, holy water or incense (but not bleach...)

https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/statement-from-the-chief-investigators-of-the-randomised-evaluation-of-covid-19-therapy-recovery-trial-on-hydroxychloroquine-5-june-2020-no-clinical-benefit-from-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-in-hospitalised-patients-with-covid-19

#17398 5 months ago
Quoted from RonSS:

You are attacking an honest question. I understand that the flu is not the same (see my reference to SARS snakes rats). I do not understand how influenza gets transmitted apparently.

Another difference - because the influenza virus and SARS-Cov-2 do not infect the same cells in the airway, an infected individual releases far more Covid than influenza virus when breathing / speaking / coughing. And the difference seems to be enormous - we are talking about several orders of magnitude. Not to mention "super-spreaders" with an even higher virus titer. A single person like this in a closed environment, especially a cold environment, may contaminate hundreds.

That's probably why when a passenger in a boat was contaminated, contagion was so effective (remember the Diamond Princess, not to mention military vessels). It never happened with the flu.

This does not mean that masks / distancing / washing hands would be useless for influenza, just that the damn Covid thing is much harder to contain.

#17477 5 months ago

Meanwhile, in France (Marseille, July 18) check how well social distancing works

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1 month later
#18215 4 months ago
Quoted from Pinball_Gizzard:

2. Yes, I decided to send my kids back to in person school.

I would have done the same thing (but my kids are now 23 and 26...) if only for the reason below:

Quoted from Pinball_Gizzard:

There are a lot of negative effects on kids from keeping schools closed.

Indeed. Home schooling also makes social inequalities far worse. Clearly not optimal to study at home in a small noisy apartment with noisy little sisters or brothers. Some families cannot afford one computer per child, etc. Not to mention the parents who desperately need to work and will only have sub-optimal solutions to take care of the kids during school hours.

Every precaution should be taken to mitigate risk, but I'd only close schools again as a last resort.

#18339 4 months ago

Meanwhile, in France...
(cas = cases; morts = deaths)

Probably not the best time to visit us.

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#18348 4 months ago
Quoted from razorsedge:

So, the "morts" are not increasing this time ...
Isn't that a good thing somehow?

Yeah, it's a good thing - neither is the number of patients in Emergency care.

There are several factors that may explain this discrepancy:
- More testing, including for asymptomatic carriers, who were not detected before and may never have symptoms
- Younger patients (older ones still took it seriously and tried to avoid being exposed)
- Better treatment - there is no miracle cure yet, but corticoid help a bit, medical teams know better who will be at high risk, etc.
- Possible seasonality of your immune system
- Some people have described a mutation of the virus leading to a less severe but more contagious form - not sure if applicable.

We hope deaths won't increase (too much) again in a few weeks...

#18354 4 months ago

... and today I learned ER admissions in the most affected areas are on an exponential growth
There was no miracle then.
We can't even blame politicians here. We're just lazy, weak-willed, disobedient and/or egoist.

Quoted from Coindork:

In normal time I would go to Paris 3 times a year. Haven’t been there since February

PM me next time you come... assuming the epidemic is over / a (good) vaccine is available.
The first round of drinks will be on me.

#18390 4 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

a bunch old, fat baby boomers

3x at risk then... (men, old, fat)

"Old" is a relative term of course.
For Covid the people at high risk seem to be 65+ but the 50-65 age range is not immune either.
Men more exposed than women.
Co-morbidity factors such as diabetes and obesity make the outcome worse.

2 weeks later
#18758 4 months ago
Quoted from Oaken:

I know right?
Everyone repeat after me: there is a delay between rise in cases and rise in deaths.

Same in France - we start to see an increase in all Hospitalizations (left), E.R. Hospitalizations (middle) and deaths (right)
Still not matching the large and scary increase in cases, most likely because the Covid+ patients are generally younger... the older people were more cautious and less exposed.

In additions, hospitals tend to be better prepared, so your chances of dying are lower.

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#18785 4 months ago

Enjoy flying - and even business class does not protect you:

Genomes show coronavirus spread on flight

Genetic evidence strongly suggests that at least one member of a married couple flying from the United States to Hong Kong infected two flight attendants during the trip.

Researchers led by Leo Poon at the University of Hong Kong and Deborah Watson-Jones at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine studied four people on the early-March flight (E. M. Choi et al. Emerg. Infect. Dis. https://doi-org.proxy.insermbiblio.inist.fr/d9jn; 2020). Two were a husband and wife travelling in business class. The others were crew members: one in business class and one whose cabin assignment is unknown. The passengers had travelled in Canada and the United States before the flight and tested positive for the new coronavirus soon after arriving in Hong Kong. The flight attendants tested positive shortly thereafter.

The team found that the viral genomes of all four were identical and that their virus was a close genetic relative of some North American SARS‑CoV-2 samples — but not of the SARS‑CoV-2 prevalent in Hong Kong. This suggests that one or both of the passengers transmitted the virus to the crew members during the flight, the authors say. The authors add that no previous reports of in-flight spread have been supported by genetic evidence.

(found in Nature News - September 23)