(Topic ID: 264520)

The official Coronavirus containment thread

By Daditude

4 years ago


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161 key posts have been marked in this topic, showing the first 10 items.

Display key post list sorted by: Post date | Keypost summary | User name

Post #1 Important warning Posted by Daditude (4 years ago)

Post #6 Coronavirus website with up-to-the-moment stats Posted by Daditude (4 years ago)

Post #172 Key posted, but no summary given Posted by PantherCityPins (4 years ago)

Post #193 Name of disease and of the virus Posted by PantherCityPins (4 years ago)

Post #209 Explains why you need social distancing Posted by PantherCityPins (4 years ago)

Post #239 Comment on seasonality Posted by PantherCityPins (4 years ago)

Post #251 Avoid ibuprofen Posted by PantherCityPins (4 years ago)

Post #370 Info on chloroquine Posted by PantherCityPins (4 years ago)

Post #530 News from Italy Posted by Pedretti_Gaming (4 years ago)

Post #693 Important info and advice Posted by ForceFlow (4 years ago)


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#273 4 years ago

On the Ibuprofen issue, there was an update 2 days ago, WHO:"Based on currently available information, WHO does not recommend against the use of of ibuprofen."
So Ibu shoud be ok to use for now.

#348 4 years ago
Quoted from Reality_Studio:

The lockdown is only for indoor gatherings that have the largest risk of viral spread due to shared air, lots of shared touched surfaces, close proximity, etc. People outside are not an issue. We're still allowed to go outside here, I was just out and people were walking their dogs, etc, but at the same time they avoid going right next to each other. Places like gyms, restaurants, etc are the big risk.

We tried this here in germany too with a soft shutdown. But more and more states now go over to a real lockdown. I think we will get this for whole germany next monday.
Scientist now are talking on TV about that we have to consider other options. No country could survive a total lockdown for 2 years and that's what would be needed when we have to lockdown everything. They said intern they are debating to loosen the regulations for new vaccines. So it could be used even with unclear or heavy side effects on people that are in the high risk group. Normaly this would be an absolut taboo.
I think they are right even if it would be a gamble.

#815 4 years ago

In germany we now have 21000 cases of corona and 70 deaths so far, so way less deaths than in Italy that gives me hope, but the cases are spread out over the whole country. And so almost the whole country is in a soft lockdown mode, tomorrow it can be that we will have a real lockdown. In italy they have 53600 cases and more than 4800 deaths. I just don't understand this difference. I don't believe that we acted faster here in germany. For now I don't believe that we will have in germany as many deaths like they have in Italy. I think we tested way more than in italy. So the actual number of cases in italy could be way higher than in germany. But how could it spread in italy so extreme fast? Are we for now just lucky? Will we see the same numbers when our health system will go down like in Italy. What will happen in other countrys like the USA?
I am still afraid of what will come, and I still think it's the right way to take this extreme seriously. But I am starting to understand that even the experts still just have not enough informations about this virus. I think the most important thing now is to get them time to collect data they can analyze. I think everyone should try to help that they will get this time!

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

And just one thing that is on my mind and I hope you don't think wrong about me when I say this here. I have contact with many people from china in my small village and I like them, they have great food, are polite and are the best neighbours you can wish for. But no matter how much I like them, I don't trust the chinese government. So I hope that our scientists will get soon enough own data to get a better understanding what's going on.

#1238 4 years ago

Germanys Chancellor Merkel goes into quarantine, she had contact to a doctor that was now tested positive.
She got a pneumococcal vaccine that could help to prevent bad course of the corona disease, and the doctor who gave the vaccine had corona disease.

#1534 4 years ago

Merkel is only in Quarantine. No news about if the test is negative or positive so far.

#3966 4 years ago

Till Lindemann (Rammstein singer) is in intensive care now. He tested positive for coronavirus and was in critical condition brought to hospital by emergency medics.

#4296 4 years ago

Saw the press conference of your president Trump. I don't want to say he's lying, but he said they want to built 100000 ventilators, or have I misunderstood something?
Today I read an new interview here in germany with Stefan Dräger, he is the boss of "Drägerwerk". They are the biggest ventilator builting company here in germany and perhaps in the world. And he explained why it's so hard to built more of these. Mercedes and other car companies had offered help. But he don't think that they can help: „You cannot have a baby in one month by impregnating nine women“. He said in this interview that they need essential parts from the whole world to built these ventilators, even from new zealand. And he said that if there will be a fight between the countrys over the parts, it is possible that no one will get anymore ventilators. And he said that he doesn't think that it will be possible for the USA to get 100000 ventilators over the next year cause this would be almost the capacity of all manufacturer in the world together.
I don't know if he is right. Just want to let you know about the interview. That doesn't look good to me, I thought this virus could bring all countrys in the world more together to fight this, now I am starting to think it will be the opposite.
Sry, the interview is only in german language:
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206850889/Beatmungsgeraete-Nachfrage-uebersteigt-Produktion-bei-Weitem-sagt-Hersteller.html

35
#5752 3 years ago
Quoted from wolfemaaan:

Pretty much Covid is doing what nature does. Seems like vast majority of healthy people are not affected and the people with underlying conditions and old age are. That’s Darwin’s theory of evolution
The only thing so far solving this issue is the uncredited human immune system.

Oh man wolfemaaan, you would have been a good sample Nazi in old germany!
Yes Covid does what nature does, yes it's Darwins theory of evolution. But we are human beeings and we can fight it. Humans stand together, we can try to protect the weak and helpless and we can work together as a community. We don't have to accept everything. We can give a fight. And not only for our self we can fight for our fellow human beings.
You can choose which world you want to live in.

1 month later
#12909 3 years ago

There is a theory I often heard the last days, that a vaccination against tuberculosis could help built up some kind of resistance against corona. I know it could be just one more crazy theory, and why should a vaccination with a live bacterium help against a virus. But if you look at countrys that had vaccinations against tuberculosis you can see that these countrys are doing also good against corona. In the late 90s they stopped the vaccination against tuberculosis here in germany and in east germany they did more of it than in west. I am lucky and had a such a vaccination before they stopped to do it. Countrys that had no tuberculosis vaccination like italy, belgium or the USA have way more problems now. They started a few studys now in germany and the netherland to look into this more. And there are reports that scientists and the WHO are thinking that there could realy be some kind of general strengthening of the general immune system with these vaccination that realy helps against corona. Have you heard anything about this in the USA?

#12969 3 years ago

The best study about the virus so far here in germany:
https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD21D/vwLookupDownloads/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf/%24FILE/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf

Mortality Rate in case of infection= 0,37 %
Estimated number of infections for germany ten times more than official numbers.
20 % of infections are without symptoms of illness.
Age has no impact of infection rate.
Intensity of infection is higher for people that were participants of a superspreading event, the assumption is that contact with higher dosis of virus correlates with heavier sysptoms of the disease.

15
#13127 3 years ago

Germany: Had my pub closed for months now without hope, or some kind of perspective for the future. Tomorrow suddenly the goverment will anounce that the restaurants and pubs can open again from saturday on. This comes almost unsigned before because of massiv pressure from the industry. Don't get me wrong I am happy that I can open the pub again. But i still don't know what rules I have to follow now and if my pub can be profitable again.
I have a bad feeling about it. All I wanted before was a guide line, a timetable. If they had said, I have to wait 3, 6 months or longer that would have been hard but I had to find a way to live with it. Even a week ago they said, it is not the time to talk about reopening again and there will be no time to even think about it in the next weeks. Now from one day to the other.......BAM! In almost every state in germany we still have a massive lock down with no contact allowed for more than two people in the public. And now I read the news and they want me to believe that if I want to, I can open up again in the next few days???
I'm feeling like a caged animal that is set free again and unsure what to do with the freedom. What changed so fundamental with the virus? Is there a vaccine or a drug? A few days ago I hoped to wake up from the whole nightmare. I know, I should be happy and go to work again. But this feels unreal now, it feels like a trap for me: I open up again and I will try to make everything right, will follow the rules. But when there will be a second corona wave everybody will say, hey you are guilty, you are the one who wanted to open again. You got your wish now live with the deaths.
Never in my life before, my life was so surreal.

21
#13314 3 years ago

So update from "Hoppstädten-Weiersbach" ;P in germany:
In my district (81k People) are now only 9 active cases of covid left. Everyday they make many tests without new cases in the last days. Over the whole time we had 87 cases of corona, no deaths. So we were very, very lucky so far and I hope this will stay this way.
Next wednesday they will allow me to open up my pub again, but with many official requirements. I don't know for now if under these requirements my pub can make enough money, we will see. But I stand behind everything cause the life and health of the people in my community is way more important for me. I hope that this is not just a small break before the next wave will come and that you in the USA and the rest of the world will see a silver lining soon too! Stay healthy, strong and save!

This has to be over before the NFL starts this year, I have the feeling that my Hawks will have a shot at the superbowl.

#13798 3 years ago

Do you realy want to know what I think?
I am a pessimist, I think there will be no vaccine in the next 4-5 years, perhaps never. And almost every economy will collapse in the near future.
I hope that they will find treatment methods so not so many will die. Perhaps with early thrombosis treatments, or something else the death rate will go down. But then over time we will see, more often than we want, heavy long-term damage to health for people who survived it and that could be even worse. And three years or less after you got covid you can get it again, perhaps like the flu, wave to wave, again and again.

Social distancing will be the new normality. No more pubs, concerts, sport events. No more hugs!
The gap between rich and poor will become bigger, with way more poor than rich and nothing between. Chaos and violence on the street. People or countrys will not stand together, it will be everybody against everybody, nation against nation. Perhaps the conflict between China and the USA will become the next big war. After the spanish flu we got 2 world wars. And even if we survive the third, the european union will drift apart for sure. No more globalism will hit the people in the third world even more. Hunger, refugees and war everywhere. We will see many nations with totalitarian systems rising up in europe and everywhere else in the world, I hope not my country again. And when we think it will be getting better again, there will be the next virus even worth than covid was.
That's what I think for the future, and that is why I can't get sleep at night anymore, I said it before, I am a pessimist. I will never show this view of the future to the people around me cause there is still a chance that I am wrong. And so every day I try to prevent the bad future I see with small things that are possible for me. Even if I personally don't see any light. I will not go out without a fight.

#13806 3 years ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

So what’s the bad news?

That's why I like people from New York.

18
#14020 3 years ago

News from corona times in germany: Today I opend up my pub again, first time since 2 month. I did not announce it, cause I try to be careful and did not want to many people for the first day in the pub. It is a very small pub, only 800 feet². I opened up from 4pm to 10 pm, in corona times it isn't allowed to open up longer here in my village. I had 35 guests today, most of them stayed the whole time. They had fun and were happy, followed orders and were diciplined. But I felt the sword of damocles over my head, what if anybody has it and cause of me it will be spread to others? It is not a good feeling to be a bartender in this times.
Was a very stressful day, I always work alone. And now it is not only serving drinks and make small talk, there are so many rules to follow now with corona: I have to keep record of everybody, so if one of the guests will get ill over the next four weeks, I have to tell the health department, who was withthem in the pub and how they could get in contact with everyone. After a guest leaves I have to disinfect his place. Everybody has to wear masks when they don't sit down. I have to wear a mask the whole time. No one is allowed to sit at the bar, only at tables. Nobody could choose a table, I have to bring them to their table. And only people from two households are allowed to sit at one table. Only one person at a time is allowed to go to the toilett. Everybody has to keep distance from the others. No Pinball playing, no darts, dice rolling or other gambling alowed. And many other rules..... that doesn't sound to hard to do, but when people get drunk it gets harder and harder. For the first day I am surprised, I thought it was going to be terrible. Social distancing is the opposit of what I always wanted in my pub. But people were in unexpectedly good mood and tried to help me. If I want them to be safe and have a good time, it is way more work for me and there are way more costs, so I rised the prize per beer and drink, but the complaining was limited. That is a good sign. But I tried to be very moderate with the rise. A rise of 21 cent from 1,85 to 2,06$ for a 10,15 oz beer, before corona they would have tarred-and-feathered me, but I still think I am to cheap.
Perhaps, if everybody stays postive and tries to be careful and in good mood, it could work out. Tomorrow will be the big test, Soccer league will be starting again on TV. There will be fans from different teams in my Pub.
I am still very pessimistic about the future, my whole country opens up, it has to open up. But I am afraid there will be a second and thirdwave of corona. I don't know what will happen then.

I read today here in Germany they are testing now the urine of infected people for albumin to predict how hard Corona will Hit the patient. Perhaps this will help in future to lower the death rate.
Stay healthy, bye.

#14041 3 years ago

In 4 hours from now Borussia Dortmund will play against FC Schalke 04 in the german soccer league. This is one of the biggest rivalries in sport history.One of the first games after corona break. No visitors in the stadium, we call it a "ghost game". It will set a new record for TV ratings. But what will happen in pubs and private homes in the whole country? What will happen if idiot fans go to camp at the stadium?........
Perhaps this will be the first and last game after the break.
On the other side, it is also possible that without the supporters at the stadium everybody will see how boring soccer can be. Without the atmosphere of the supporters I would always prefer to watch an american football game over soccer.
Crazy times.
https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga/news/10-things-on-the-revierderby-borussia-dortmund-schalke-3872
Cause of corona this will not be allowed:

22
#14092 3 years ago
Quoted from MrBally:

Really sad that the Bally Wulff, Novomatic, NSM and Gauselmann machines have to remain off.

I don’t have machines with a gambling for money option anymore in my pub. Those machines are not forbitten in my area, but I don’t like them.
Perhaps I should say, I hate them, no matter how much money they would bring for me, cause often enough I could see what they can do with people. When I am talking about gambling, I think of card games or board games or dice games. And only if played for the next round of beer and not for money. I just have a dart-machine and a Black Knight Premium (my favourite pinball machine and Steve Ritchies best game!) in my pub and the BK is on freeplay, cause I don’t want to make money with pinball. I want to spread the joy of the game and I always animate people to try it even if they never played pinball before. But that is not allowed these days with corona. People have to sit at their table. And things are now not allowed if many people have to touch the same thing even if I would disinfect the buttons, darts or cards.

Quoted from screaminr:

They announced Aussie rules football will start on June 11th , yay
I hope they let some supporters in or at least put some crowd noises in. Sport sucks with no atmosphere .

There is no fun in teamsports without supporters. I hate it!!! My Sportchannel had an option today for the sound with playback noise of fans. That helped only a little bit, there is no connection between fan noise and game. The games were absolutely boring. Both fan groups from the rivalry game today talked before the game and they decided not to see it as a derby. Everything went well, save and without trouble, but also without fun.
It seems to me that the one who invented Corona focused on everything that could be fun.

Quoted from RTR:

I love your updates and wish you the best of luck on the re-opening of your pub! What is the name of it?
One of the cool things about pinside is getting snapshots of life from around the world.

My real name is: Heiko Staab and the name of the pub is “Gasthaus Staab”. But it is nothing special, just a typical small old pub in a little village in Germany. Not beautiful or famous. People are always reminded of “Cheers”. It has history, good and bad, because it is 100 years old. Perhaps someday I should write a book about the whole history of guests, from the Jews to the Nazis and KZ inmates to the American G.Is, from the hippies to the students to the rockers to the Chinese and now to the corona time. Also it is nothing special, I think that could be very entertaining. The pub is the reason why I love pinball. First game we got there was a Bally Lost World. And the pub like almost every pub in the world was always its own special world too.
I grew up in the pub, after my graduation I went to the army, then I studied theology and the whole time I worked in the pub. Someday I decided to do nothing else till the day I die. And so, I became the owner of it and the little special world in it.
But now this corona virus, dictates everything, there is no shelter and no save place, no special world to hide from the virus. You can try to ignore it and that would be dangerous, but i don't think you can forget it. I can understand many pub owners who have decided to stay closed as long as we are in an epidemic. I can't keep it closed, I need the money to live. And so I have to keep it open even if I don't like how the virus effects it .

Yes, everything I could talk about here are only first world problems but that is the only life I know. And I think the only life most pinsiders can talk about. I can’t imagine what will happen in third world countrys when the virus will be running wild there. But I am sure it will be far worse. I hope we do not forget the people in poor corners of the world if somebody finds a expensive vaccine or medicine.

#14172 3 years ago
Quoted from Darth_Chris:

I'm in Montreal, Quebec, Canada and it started at the begining of March so even before the States and today our health specialists talked about different forms of covid. We still have a lot of dead people everyday and they are saying the string affecting Montreal would be a string of the European virus. They mentionned that the original string from Wuhan evolved into something way more lethal when it hit Italie, France and the rest of Europe.
People have been confined since march 15 with basicaly everything closed and still they dont expect to reopen montreal for now. Most of the people respect the rule of distanciation and staying home and still cases of infection and death are not dropping. Schools in montreal will not reopen before September.
I d like to know, if any experts here is it true that the covid as evolve into different strings some deadlier than others ? cause we have cases of young people dying and even kids with cases similar to the Kawasaki syndrom.
People are more quiet here and are respecting the rules for the greater good and still this is not improving we are at the same point and numbers in daily infections and deaths and it s been 2 months.
Some my point is, if any of this is true and we have more than 1 string and we might have a phase 2 when fall comes how can you developp a vaccin including all strings ? Just like the flu.....you cannot be immune to all strings of flu.

Christian Drosten is one of the best virologists in the world. I don't always like what he says, cause often it is very bad for my business. Most times he is right. Sometimes he was wrong and had to correct his statments later. I like that he does this. He looks at this virus from the view of the virologist. Social or economic things are less important for him. But he is always at the top of his sience. In his podcasts and I am following everyone, he always is up to date. In one of his last podcasts, I think last week, he said: Yes there are different strings of the virus. But there is no evidence if one is more deadly or infective than the other string. Sientists will looking into this now. But what he can say for now is this:
"Die Mutation, die hier entstanden ist, die liegt nicht in einer Domäne an, die typischerweise neutralisierende Antikörper binden." I will try to translate it:
"The mutation that has arisen here is not in a domain that typically binds neutralizing antibodies."
So I think the mutation will not have a impact on the vaccine development. So there is no reason to fear these mutations
from what we know so far. But I am no expert here, just reading like you too.
Edit: this is the podcast and I think you will have to enable translated subtitles to understand it. 43:42 they start talking about the mutations.

1 week later
#14658 3 years ago
Quoted from Aurich:

There's a phenomenon called the preparedness paradox. When you plan for something, and your plan works, people then tend to say the thing you were planning for wasn't a big deal.
Probably the most famous modern example is the Y2K bug. 2000 rolled around and nothing bad happened, so people said oh, it was just dumb media hype, and ignored the ridiculous amount of work programmers put in to make sure things didn't break. Nothing happened because people prepared.
The lockdowns aren't a magic bullet, and frankly most countries didn't prepare that well. But they stopped the worst case scenario. And now people want to get back to normal, because they're tired and stressed by what's going on. I don't blame anyone for being tired and stressed. But nothing has changed. We don't have a vaccine or a cure. The outcomes haven't been as scary as they could have been because we acted, not because the predictions were wrong. Those chart curves are ready to come roaring back if we let down our guard.
There is no pretending this is hype and nonsense. The virus doesn't care who you voted for, or which TV network you watch. Maybe you won't get sick, or maybe you will and it will be easy to get over it. I hope the best for everyone.
But the numbers don't lie. Virus theory isn't a fairy tale. Exponential spread happens in rural areas just like it does in big cities, it just might take a little longer to get going. The economy will get fucked by people dying and getting sick too, there's no avoiding it. If we want to bounce back faster then we gotta take the painful steps now, or it will just be worse in the long run. That's the lesson we learned from 1918.
I work in the media. Our science and health writers are all PhDs, they're taking this very seriously, and I promise you, they'd much rather be writing about anything else right now. People in our company have been laid off, our competitors are laying people off. Even the most basic common sense would tell you nobody is profiting from covering the facts.
I'm just putting people who are screaming about conspiracies on ignore. I don't need the headache, and I don't suggest arguing with them is worth the time. But I don't care who you vote for or what your politics are, I don't want you or your loved ones to be sick or die. Be mad, but be safe. Wear your damn mask to protect others from yourself, like they do to protect you, wash your hands, and have some common sense. This isn't the time to decide you're right and the rest of the entire world is wrong.

We were prepared, so the first wave wasn't as bad as it could have been. I do agree with your statement in this point but not in: "But nothing has changed." Something has changed!!! We have won time and we now know more about the virus. There is a big public awareness. And now with the time we have won and new wisdom, it is time to put away "the hammer" and start to "dance". And right now is the time for everybody to discuss the way the dance should go on. We all have to analyse what was most effective and what could be open up again. To many people are still locked down in fear. I don't want to live like this. Our society and economy can only survive if we use our minds to fight for as much freedom as possible. I am always very pessimistic for the future, but I would never let the fear cloud my mind. We have to be smart in the way we adapt to the new situation. It is not possible to be 100% safe. Many people can't live if the economy and life is totaly locked down. It's stupid to ignore the virus, but it would be just as stupid if we did not use every chance to open up what is relatively save.
In my opinion this is not only a fight against the virus, this is also a fight between different systems and ways of life. And there are different possibilities to shape the future of this crisis.

11
#14897 3 years ago

I wear a mask when I am around people. Not to wear a mask is not a sign or symbol for freedom. Yes, I don't think that wearing a mask makes me or others absolutly save. But no one can deny that there is the possibility that it could prevent spreading diseases a little bit. So I can understand that it should be regulated that everyone has to wear a mask in public transportation and in places with near contact to many people. And I think even without Covid, everybody that has signs of illness like the flu should always wear a mask around other people. Cause if it is a sign or a symbol than it stands for the respect for each other. If someone around me in private doesn't wear mask I don't have panic like some I know, I tell them politely why I think it would be better to wear a mask, that is all. In my pub everybody has to wear a mask when not sitting at a table. It is the law now, and I think it is a good law. I have many old people as guests. Everybody that don‘t want to wear a mask can stay away. If everybody is a little bit carefull around all others, covid is not a big problem. I wear my mask 10 hours a day without break, have to change them often to breath better. I have to be around a lot of people. It's not so easy in the sun and I can understand why people don't like it. But it is a small price to pay and for now the right thing to do. It is nothing that bothers me and nothing to fight over.
I don't know if it is allowed here on pinside to discuss politics but I just don't understand the world anymore. Everybody talks about the masks and personal freedom. It is an angry discussion. At the same time china captured Hong Kong to test what the whole world will say to it. And I have the feeling that nobody cares about it. We have to be careful not only with covid. I think we have to be careful that we are not losing the view on the big things. We fight over masks and unimportant distractions and we don't see the real battles for freedom everywhere in the world. If we stay quiet where it matters we will lose more than the freedom to be assholes around each other.

#14910 3 years ago

It‘s a simple thing: If everybody wears a mask, everybody protects each other. If you don’t wear a mask when somebody is near you, without a medical condition that forbids it, you are in my eyes a selfish assh.....And if you wear a mask and nobody is near you, I will think you are stupid.

#14938 3 years ago
Quoted from metallik:

We've managed to exist as a species for thousands of years without masks. I can see them being useful for this particular time and illness and I'll wear them wheen necessary now, but after covid is resolved I'm not going to go full time wearing masks anytime I have a cold or flu. I strongly feel that continually shielding oneself from bugs ultimately results in a weakened, inefficient immune system. I definitely feel we need to do everything we can now to protect the immunicompromised from Covid, but full-on, permanent changes in lifestyle to hide from the next bug? No thanks.

Please don‘t misunderstand me. I am against official regulations. I am a very liberal person. I am also against vaccination requirement. I would use a vaccine but Everybody should have the right to decide for themself.
In 2019 25K died in Germany in a bad wave of the flu, never thought about It before. But now I think in times when something like this happens, of when I feeling ill, I will wear a mask in the future eben if there is no More Covid around.

#14954 3 years ago

My english is to bad to translate you the latest podcast of one of our best virologists here in germany(Christian Drosten) and also I can understand the language he is talking, it is very hard for a normal guy like me to follow sometimes. I am no expert in these things. But I think it was a very important episode of his podcast and so I try my best to summarize it: The view on this virus has changed in the science world in the last few days. Before they thought, that sars2 infection(covid 19) sits in the upper respiratory tract and could be spread without signs of infection and so it would be very hard to control the infection without a hard lock down. They still think it sits there but now they think it could be controlled. The scientists in the world believed that without hard lockdown the infections would always spread with exponential growth. Now there are studies that are leading to an other view. They now think that only 10% of the infected people are responsible for 80 % of the new infections. So the dispersions factor would be around 0.45! That would still be very high and not easy to control, but it could be managable to control it like with sars 1 and without a hard lockdown, if you can catch the superspreader (the 10%) early. This is a very good news. But to do this there has to be a different strategy used than we did before. Drosten said the best example would be Japan. If you wear masks to superspreading events it could help a lot to prevent many infections. And the important thing Japan is doing now is to act direct to prevent a cluster from spreading. If they find an infected person, it should be investigated if the person could have been part of a cluster. And then the whole cluster the person was part of, should be handled like everybody was infected. As an example he mentioned that if perhaps a teacher got infected, then the whole cluster in the school, for an example the children that the teacher had in his class, should stay home for a week, as if they were already infected and everybody of that cluster should keep social distancing like diagnosed as infected. It would be wrong to wait for diagnosed infections.
With this method it would be possible for a land like germany to manage the epidemic even without vaccine without many deaths in the future. There should be more testing done for infections but this should be more determined to clusters.
And the other part that would still be needed for the time till there will be a vaccine, is that big clusters like concerts, sportevents or other events with many many people should still be canceled for the near future.
I don’t know if this helps you and if something like this would be possible in the usa. But here in germany the last days we see only around 300 newly found infections per day. So I think this could really help us till there is a vaccine, to keep it it this low.

Edit: I found the main article the podcast mentioned as basis of this theory in english language.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all

#14971 3 years ago

One more thing, why many scientists now are thinking that the way to fight this virus is to find clusters can be found in the "Heinsberg Studie: Infection fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a German community with a super-spreading event"
https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD21D/vwLookupDownloads/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf/%24FILE/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf

Not only are these superspreading events the main reason why this virus is so rapidly growing all over the world. They collected data direct from one of those events and could see that people that got infected in this event got way more seariously ill than people that got infected in a "normal" way. They still are not sure why, but it is for sure now when you got in contact in a closed room with a superspreader, so that you got in contact with a bigger concentration of the virus, there is a greater chance that the disease will hit you harder.
You can not see who is a superspreader and you don't know why he is a superspreader. But the goal has to be not to come in these situations or if you can not or will not prevent it, it would be better if everybody wears a mask in these situations.
I read more about it the last few days and I am beginning to understand it now. If only I had paid more attention at school back then it would be easier.
The reproduktion rate (R) without containment is around 3. This means 1 infected infects 3 new people. With all our measures here in germany we got R under 1. This is great, cause so the rate of infected sinks down. But we got to this with a lock down and this is absolutly bad for the economy.
Now they see an other way to get R under 1, to keep it there and perhaps to bring it to 0: The number K is the dispersions factor. 2 weeks ago the scientists tought this factor would be over 1 like with the flu. Now they are sure it is under 1. They think K is around 0.4. So if you could prevent these superspreading events it would be possible to bring down the R rate way under 1 and this with way less serious illness for most of the people. And without big lockdowns and even without vaccine it could be possible to stop the virus totaly. If only more people in the world would understand this concept.
That is the reason why I am now absolutly pro wearing masks and try to convince everybody to do it!!!
Edit: I forgot one important thing and possibly the most important. They found that all of this superspreading events took place indoor with bad aircondition and with people loud singing or speaking. So everybody should try to go out More or open up the windows for fresh air flow. If this and wearing masks is all that is needed to keep R under 1 to finaly stop the epidemic, it would just be smart to try it.

#15017 3 years ago

There are so many different opinions about wearing masks or against wearing masks. So why there is no experiment to look into this?
Oh I forgot, scientists already did an experiment on this:
https://fightcovid19.hku.hk/hku-hamster-research-shows-masks-effective-in-preventing-covid-19-transmission/
That is not a fake news, not an opinion. That just is science and as long nobody proofs me wrong denying that masks are helping is the same as denying that the planet earth is not flat!

#15032 3 years ago
Quoted from DakotaMike:

Help me understand something. I thought that by practicing social distancing and wearing masks, we would still have the same number of overall covid infections. It's just that those infections would be spread out over a longer period of time. Regardless of the measures that we take, isn't 50% to 60% of the world's population still expected to contract this coronavirus? Unless hard no-travel borders go up, no country/state can prevent the eventual spread to everyone.
The ironic thing is, the better we are at locking down, the longer all this lasts, correct? The point is to spread the infections out to reduce ICU load, and buy time for better treatments, and eventually a vaccine. But we can't really wait for a vaccine right, cuz that's still 9+ months away at best. So when is the right time to open? How long is this supposed to last? I've not heard a single authoritative and trustworthy source lay out a timetable and plan of action that makes any kind of sense from a safety or economic standpoint.
I want to do the right thing, and I want our country to do the right thing, but I genuinely don't know what the right thing to do is. What is the right balance between risk and reward, between safety and ruining the financial and mental well-being of millions. It's really hard to know what "right" even looks like.
For instance, my family has chosen to keep my parents (ages 55 and 66) within our social group. This has been enormously helpful in allowing us to maintain a sense of normalcy, and has been a blessing from a practical and emotional standpoint. They're about the only people that we interact with, and us for them, so we calculated the risks, and chose not to isolate from them. And for us, it ended up being the right thing to do, as none of us have gotten sick. Some friends of ours with slightly older parents have gone full-isolation. And it's been devastating for them. The grandmother is very depressed, and frequently cries. Her and the grandkids (ages 3 and 8 ) are upset that they can't hug each other or spend any time together. All of them are very depressed and anxious.
Our friends have chosen to make the technically "safer" choice, but it's taken a terrible toll on them, and their parents, from an emotional and mental health standpoint.
So which of us is/was "right"? I don't know. All I know is that I'm happy with the decisions that we've made so far.
*Also, please note I and my parents wear masks all the time when we go to stores or the post office, but it's getting old. And I'm definitely now in the minority when I go out wearing one.

The idea with the lockdown was to flatten the curve of infected, so the hospitals are not overrun. The infection would run a longer time but with less deaths. Now we now that most infected don't give away the virus, only 10 % spread it to 80 % of the new cases. So a softlockdown (like in Japan) has the same effect.
But an other goal is to prevent a contact with a massive dosis of virus. Studies are showing that with contact to more virus, the disease will be way more intensive.

45
#15041 3 years ago
Quoted from PanzerFreak:

For those Pinsiders that don't live in the US how do you view the United States right now? I'm curious because citizens here are often brought up to believe that Americans are the best at everything, that "we are #1" in everything we do, etc. It wasn't until I went to college that I began questioning that mindset. We are number one alright, number one in the number of cases and Covid-19 deaths.
The US seems like a scary place right now with everything going on. Thank goodness for the NASA / SpaceX launch over the weekend as its one of few things that can unite people and that everyone can be proud of. I think the idea and concept of America is incredible (a mix of all cultures, races, religions, etc) but that it's people are failing each other in letting that concept thrive to its fullest.

I would like to answer your question and I hope it is ok that my answer has nothing to do with corona and is a bit longer. I grew up with American soldiers stationed around my village and they are still here. Some say we’re still occupied, I think they are here to help, so that we all could live in freedom. And I hope the american soldiers keep staying here.
As a kid I loved their ice cream on Independence Day and as a kid they let me sit in a F16 Falcon (I think that’s why I later went to the german army). They were always friendly, and I liked them. And perhaps as a kid I thought they were the best and number one in the world. I learned to speak the english language way before I got into school. In school I failed the English course because I was talking like on the street and not the british english they wanted to teach us. I watched american TV Shows, always loved the music and the culture. As a teenager I loved the book “Centennial” from James R. Michener that covered a big part of American history. I love western movies with John Wayne like “The Searcher” and my all-time favorite TV show is “Northern Exposure”. I cannot live without american music from, soul and blues, over folk to rock and metal.
Over the years I have met many American families from different corners of the country. They taught me how to love and watch American Football. And I played baseball with them and had fun. They let me sneak into the base to buy things that you could not get here in Germany. Then after 9.11. something started to be bit different many Americans started to close everything and keep for themself. I could understand this. There were times when soldiers from the Iraq war came in my pub and were broken down, after a few drinks they started crying over the things they saw there or about lost friends. Sometimes they wanted to get in fights, and I had to show and tell them that they are now under friends again. I could understand all this, also it sometimes was precarious.
And still through the years I often found good friends and with the internet I could keep in contact with them:
The Texan girl, who is a good musician and has a farm where they filmed a lot of westerns.
The guy from LA that became a member and big part of a traditional runners club in my village and had a wife here but left her and went back to the USA.
The black guy from Hawaii with the german name “Fritz”, one night I taught him very drunk a few swear words that are used in my village, only to hear him say these words to the referee the next day in a soccer match which resulted in a red card.
The Captain from a Irish New Yorker family that had run a pub in NY and always came to my similar pub cause of homesickness as long as he stayed in the US army here.
The big black guy from Belize, who is in the freemasonry and has a teacher as his wife who loved world music and my beer. And told me that he wants to come back in a few years to live the rest of his life in my village, far away from all the racism he is confronted in the USA.
I still have contact with them after they left and there were many more!
And under my good friends are still Americans living in my little village:
An American/Mexican ex-soldier who stayed here after his army time as a sport teacher and soccer coach.
Or the beautiful wife of the mayor of my village, who could not vote for her husband in his election, cause she still only has her american citizenship and wants to keep it that way.
And one of my best friends an ex-soldier from Puerto Rico who also stayed here and has a good salsa band and many kids and grandchildren who are living here now like german natives.
One of my neighbors is an old friendly lady from Jacksonville who hates Trump and she wants to live here till she dies also she misses surfing.
All these people are different, different colors, religion and view on politics, but they are all coming from the USA. They are genuinely nice, and I like talking with them as often as possible, almost daily!
2 Years ago, I went to watch my first NFL game in London. I am a big Seahawks fan, always was, no bandwagon fan! I came into the Wembley stadium and searched for my seat. Direct next to me sitting was an old guy from seattle, I would say around 80 years old. Before I could sit, he looked at me in my Seahawks shirt from up to down. Then he said that this is a big relieve for him, he thought he had to travel so far, and he was afraid he had to sit next to a Raiders fan. I told him that I am a real Seahawks fan, but that I am from Germany. He said: “Bloody Nazi doesn’t matter, as long you are no Raider!” Normally to call someone a nazi would be a big insult but I had to laugh about this. After the game he said to me: “Son you did great, cheering up the team!” And that I am a real loud “12” and that I should come to watch a game in Century field one day. That was for me like I have been knighted! Later that night I got drunk with a nice couple of Raiders fans from oakland in the London Crobar. I still have a video from her saying "Go hawks!", took me a lot of drinks to get her this far.

So why I am telling you all this? Perhaps it is not the answer that you wanted but It does not matter for me if America is the number one and the best or not. It does not matter if you start a rocket into space. When I write “Black lives matter” on facebook it is not against America, it is the opposite. As long I have so many friends from your country, and as long I am invited as a friend. I am on the side of the American people as a friend too. You have problems in your country, we have problems here, sometimes the same, sometimes different. But as people I think we almost have the same background and the same culture and, in many things, the same way of thinking. We value the same things: Freedom, democracy and human rights. We should keep working and living together in this world. Does it matter where we are born? And I think that covid shows us this more than anything else. May the force be with you!

1 week later
#15312 3 years ago

I think it's interesting that new studies show a conection between blood type and how bad the corona disease will hit you.
https://figshare.com/articles/How_blood_group_O_could_be_protected_from_Coronavirus_Covid-19_infections/12019035
I read today, that for "bloodtype 0" to 50% it goes less badly than with "bloodtype A".

#15326 3 years ago
Quoted from o-din:

I read that a few days ago along with it is very hard to transmit the virus if you are asymptomatic.
I believe they still know way more about the last one than they will about this one until it is over and a lot of the so called experts are still guessing. And sometimes it's just to fit what narrative they already believe. Especially if it mutates into a much deadlier strain. And it looks to be far from over. [quoted image]

It could mutate into a much deadlier strain, but why should it? To do this it has to mutate into a version that would go earlier into the lung. If it does so, we could see symtoms earlier and fight it sooner. I don't see the evolutionary gain for the virus to do this. It would be more reasonably for the virus to mutate into a harmless runny nose effect. So we wouldn't fight it so hard and it could infect more people. I played a lot the "Plague Inc." game. But this is not a game and in real life there is no intelligence behind the virus with the goal to kill more people. So I think we will see evolutionary developt mutations and there has to be a benefit for the mutation to be successful.
On the other side, in the world we live now and when I think about how surreal this year was, anything could happen.......

1 month later
10
#16802 3 years ago
Quoted from Daditude:

A candidate vaccine to the conoavirus is showing good results:
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/5435723002

Hmm, this company (Moderna in Idar-Oberstein) will produce this vaccine 12 miles away from the village I live. Some of the workers there are sometimes coming to my pub. I think I have to give them a few beers on the house if they can speed this up.

2 weeks later
24
#17614 3 years ago

There are fools everywhere in the world and 20000 of them came this weekend to Berlin. There are way more people in germany that still think the corona restrictions are still needed. The 20000 in berlin were a wild mix of people and not a homogeneous group. It was not more as this and way less than some are making out of it, but it still is a dangerous sign. Yes there are neo nazis who are trying to capture people for their view of the world. But the protesters against corona restrictions are way too varied to get united in something else as corona.
What we now see is that there are many people that are frustrated and went on vacations or are going to partys more and more. The people want to see an end of this epidemic and I think if we don't see a solution soon we will have a big problem not later than next year.
When I am hearing that we have to live with all these restrictions and that this life will be some "new kind of normality", I don't think this will work. Social distancing in my opinion is against human nature. It can work for sometime and I hope it will work as long it will be needed. But I will not accept it as the new normality and I don't think that most people will accept this
The people need the carrot of an end for this to keep following the rules or the discipline we had so long will break down.

And when I speak for myself, I am working 10-12 hours 6 days a week with a mask on, I try everything I can so no one could get infected through me. I don't see me doing this this way for the rest of my life. So I can understand protesters and in a democracy it should be allowed to protest. But it should be allowed too, that I am getting very angry about all the stupidity and selfishness of many protesters, cause if the infection rate will rise again,the work of the people that tried to prevent a bad ending could be for nothing. I would love to go to a concert or a sports event again too, but if I have to waive all this for a year, I can live with it for now. And for everybody else it should be possible to waive it too.
There is one thing that gives me hope. In this epidemic you can finaly see the strength of a federal system like we have in germany. If they will have to close the pubs and other things in citys like Hamburg, Berlin or an other hotspot again it doesn't have to be for the whole country, and not for long to flatten the curve again. In my area of germany, with a lot of testing, we had only one case of corona in the last weeks and that was a girl that came back from a visit to the usa. So I think it is safe to almost live normal here in my village. All of this will come to an end. And the goal has to be to make the best of the situation and to come out of it as good as possible.

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