(Topic ID: 264520)

The official Coronavirus containment thread

By Daditude

2 years ago


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#27900 5 months ago
Quoted from Jamesays:

I wonder what the accuracy level is on the tests ?Are they made here or imported ?

If they’re anything like the pcr tests the answer is “not very”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/fauci-omicron-home-tests-covid-b1978511.html

#27901 5 months ago
Quoted from sven:

PS: Let's hope Trump having received the booster can convince some of his followers to get vaccinated.

Considering they apparently booed him when he said it, I would consider it doubtful.

#27902 5 months ago
Quoted from Jamesays:

I wonder what the accuracy level is on the tests

Tim Ferris said on a podcast about a month ago that they were around 80% accurate but would give false negatives.

#27904 5 months ago
Quoted from Jamesays:

I wonder what the accuracy level is on the tests ?Are they made here or imported ?

Depends on the tests and depends on omicron or not. Some tests don’t work so well for omicron. (See link)

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/sars-cov-2-viral-mutations-impact-covid-19-tests

With delta you could test the morning of and be ok. With omicron…test right before. Very short incubation time. Can easily be negative in morning and positive at night.

0F7AFBD9-0962-419D-88C2-BECCBC1A9AED.jpegB6F08478-F947-4E79-B2B4-0C33CF7867C8.jpeg
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#27905 5 months ago

Time to shut it down and keep people from infecting each other. Do it 100% this time, keep people in their houses and away from each other until it’s over.

#27906 5 months ago
Quoted from poppapin:

2 years into this and why are we lacking in test kits?

MASSIVE demand in a SHORT time. Everyone wants to be careful by getting tested before visiting for the holidays. People flying need multiple tests for flights to and from locations. Airlines are seeing pre Covid volume. Omicron infections have spread across the entire country in about 2 weeks… the world less than a month. There’s probably a fair amount of the usual over buying and hoarding.

-14
#27907 5 months ago
Quoted from sven:

PS: Let's hope Trump having received the booster can convince some of his followers to get vaccinated.

You must get all of your news from cnn international. The majority of the non-vaccinated are minorities and cnn did their part in 2020 stoking fear telling the minorities that the government was going to give them placebo’s or some other type of vaccines. Statistically proven, those minorities did not vote for Trump. So take your Netherlands BS someplace else.

#27908 5 months ago
Quoted from poppapin:

2 years into this and why are we lacking in test kits?

Good question. Finally I've been able to find them regularly. We do them before and after travelling or hanging out with my folks, who are in their mid-80s.

#27909 5 months ago
Quoted from Jamesays:

I wonder what the accuracy level is on the tests ?Are they made here or imported ?

About 85%. They are more accurate if you’re symptomatic, because your viral load is higher then. Less accurate if you’re asymptotic.

They don’t amplify like a PCR test, so they sacrifice some accuracy for speed and cost savings.

No idea where they are made. I assume that question is because of the low supply right now?

13
#27910 5 months ago
Quoted from Mikala:

You must get all of your news from cnn international. The majority of the non-vaccinated are minorities and cnn did their part in 2020 stoking fear telling the minorities that the government was going to give them placebo’s or some other type of vaccines. Statistically proven, those minorities did not vote for Trump. So take your Netherlands BS someplace else.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/31/us/virus-unvaccinated-americans.html

Take a look at the chart about halfway down. It shows that the people who are "wait and see" unvaccinated are 49% white and the "Absolutely Not" group is 70% white.

I'm not sure where you are getting your information that the majority of unvaccinated are minorities. Care to share a link?

#27911 5 months ago

Some interesting news - won’t help the current surge because they are only moving out of phase 1 trials. But if it pans out could help with future variants.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10335105/Army-announce-developed-single-vaccine-protects-variants-COVID-SARS.html

#27914 5 months ago
Quoted from Mikala:

You must get all of your news from cnn international. The majority of the non-vaccinated are minorities and cnn did their part in 2020 stoking fear telling the minorities that the government was going to give them placebo’s or some other type of vaccines. Statistically proven, those minorities did not vote for Trump. So take your Netherlands BS someplace else.

Early on there were some significant gaps in vaccination status by social economic and racial divisions. While the gaps are still there, they have shrunk to to almost noise level for economic and racial across the country. Exception being the reservations. Those are hit or miss. Some have closed the gap, some have not.

The biggest gaps currently are gender and social (political) divisions. The gap in gender can partially be explained by the huge gap in social division.

I can dm you all sorts of charts and graphs if you like showing the breakdowns and the changes over time. Let me know.

#27915 5 months ago
Quoted from cruzinpin:

Some interesting news - won’t help the current surge because they are only moving out of phase 1 trials. But if it pans out could help with future variants.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10335105/Army-announce-developed-single-vaccine-protects-variants-COVID-SARS.html

Still pre-Stage 2, (basically at this point they know they can make it and that it doesn’t have acute negative effects) but yes very exciting if it pans out.

Probably another 9-12 months away before it is approved (if it works).

#27916 5 months ago

Interesting article investigating why such large differences in severity of Covid in kids vs. adults.

Tl:dr it’s complicated.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04345-x

#27917 5 months ago
Quoted from Pinball_Gizzard:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/31/us/virus-unvaccinated-americans.html
Take a look at the chart about halfway down. It shows that the people who are "wait and see" unvaccinated are 49% white and the "Absolutely Not" group is 70% white.
I'm not sure where you are getting your information that the majority of unvaccinated are minorities. Care to share a link?

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-by-race-ethnicity/

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/a-misleading-narrative-about-the-unvaccinated/

While White adults account for the largest share (57 percent) of unvaccinated adults, Black and Hispanic people remain less likely than their White counterparts to have received a vaccine, leaving them at increased risk, particularly as the variant spreads.” (A bit more than 60 percent of Americans are classified in the census as white alone; 18.5 percent are Hispanic or Latino, 13.4 percent are Black, and about 6 percent are Asian.) The study continues:

As observed in prior weeks, Black and Hispanic people have received smaller shares of vaccinations compared to their shares of cases and compared to their shares of the total population in most states. The share of vaccinations received by Black people also continues to be smaller than their share of deaths in most states, although in some states it is similar to the share of deaths. The share of vaccinations received by Hispanic people is similar to or higher than their share of deaths in most reporting states, although in some states it continues to be lower. For example, in California, 30 percent of vaccinations have gone to Hispanic people, while they account for 63 percent of cases, 48 percent of deaths, and 40 percent of the total population in the state. Similarly, in the District of Columbia, Black people have received 43 percent of vaccinations, while they make up 56 percent of cases, 71 percent of deaths, and 46 percent of the total population. The size of these differences varies across states. The number of states where the shares of vaccinations received by Black and Hispanic people are more proportionate to their shares of the total population and/or their shares of cases or deaths in the state has grown over time.

As uncomfortable as this may make some people, if the U.S. vaccination effort in 2021 is considered a failure, it is so in considerable part because of a failure to convince members of minority groups to get vaccinated. The KFF study noted that:

Less than half of Black and Hispanic people have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in the vast majority of states reporting data. The vaccination rate for Black people is less than 50 percent in 38 of 42 reporting states, including 7 states where less than a third of Black people have received one or more doses. Similarly, less than half of Hispanic people have received a COVID-19 vaccine dose in 32 of 40 reporting states, including 9 states where less than a third have received at least one dose.

#27919 5 months ago

Just amazing. We should all move to this county in Missouri…zero Covid deaths this year according to coroner.

Sure, there has been a spike in deaths overall, especially copd and pneumonia but...

https://missouriindependent.com/2021/12/22/uncounted-inaccurate-death-certificates-across-the-country-hide-the-true-toll-of-covid-19/

#27920 5 months ago

I'm hoping for some good news today on an EUA for the theraputic pill. This country (USA) is going to be in a WORLD of HURT in about two weeks. I fear for our health care system.

#27921 5 months ago
Quoted from BrianJ1337:

If they’re anything like the pcr tests the answer is “not very”.

Is there a specific reason you are stating that PCR tests are not accurate? I'd like to hear your thinking on that.

As for your link, it leads to an interview that isn't the one you are quoting. Which leads to another interview that is 30 minutes long. Could you narrow down your source a bit?

#27922 5 months ago

Omicron takeover time lapse modeling from IHME.

Fast fast fast.

https://mobile.twitter.com/IHME_UW/status/1473690258965475334

#27923 5 months ago
Quoted from Pinball_Gizzard:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/31/us/virus-unvaccinated-americans.html
Take a look at the chart about halfway down. It shows that the people who are "wait and see" unvaccinated are 49% white and the "Absolutely Not" group is 70% white.
I'm not sure where you are getting your information that the majority of unvaccinated are minorities. Care to share a link?

As always, for a certain group of people, alternative (made up) facts > real actual facts.

#27925 5 months ago
Quoted from Mikala:

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-by-race-ethnicity/
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/a-misleading-narrative-about-the-unvaccinated/
While White adults account for the largest share (57 percent) of unvaccinated adults, Black and Hispanic people remain less likely than their White counterparts to have received a vaccine, leaving them at increased risk, particularly as the variant spreads.” (A bit more than 60 percent of Americans are classified in the census as white alone; 18.5 percent are Hispanic or Latino, 13.4 percent are Black, and about 6 percent are Asian.) The study continues:
As observed in prior weeks, Black and Hispanic people have received smaller shares of vaccinations compared to their shares of cases and compared to their shares of the total population in most states. The share of vaccinations received by Black people also continues to be smaller than their share of deaths in most states, although in some states it is similar to the share of deaths. The share of vaccinations received by Hispanic people is similar to or higher than their share of deaths in most reporting states, although in some states it continues to be lower. For example, in California, 30 percent of vaccinations have gone to Hispanic people, while they account for 63 percent of cases, 48 percent of deaths, and 40 percent of the total population in the state. Similarly, in the District of Columbia, Black people have received 43 percent of vaccinations, while they make up 56 percent of cases, 71 percent of deaths, and 46 percent of the total population. The size of these differences varies across states. The number of states where the shares of vaccinations received by Black and Hispanic people are more proportionate to their shares of the total population and/or their shares of cases or deaths in the state has grown over time.
As uncomfortable as this may make some people, if the U.S. vaccination effort in 2021 is considered a failure, it is so in considerable part because of a failure to convince members of minority groups to get vaccinated. The KFF study noted that:
Less than half of Black and Hispanic people have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in the vast majority of states reporting data. The vaccination rate for Black people is less than 50 percent in 38 of 42 reporting states, including 7 states where less than a third of Black people have received one or more doses. Similarly, less than half of Hispanic people have received a COVID-19 vaccine dose in 32 of 40 reporting states, including 9 states where less than a third have received at least one dose.

So, um, you realize that article states that white people are the majority of unvaccinated? I’m confused.

“ While White adults account for the largest share (57 percent) of unvaccinated adults…”

#27926 5 months ago

Didn't know we had so many Kaiser Family Foundation fans! If you are interested in being educated on where the vaccination holdouts are, here is an article for you that doesn't just break things out by race - although even in that article above the majority by number is still certainly unvaccinated whites. The article below shows the biggest subset of the unvaccinated whites are right leaning politically. KFF states the single biggest predictor of vaccination status is partisanship.

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/importance-of-partisanship-predicting-vaccination-status/

NPR found that right leaning/voting counties have far higher Covid death rates. Their findings included a much higher level of disinformation related beliefs held amongst that group regarding the coronavirus, Covid infection, deaths reported from Covid, and the vaccine.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

The takeaway for me after reading all of this is that it really matters where you get your information about Covid. Continually shunning experts and embracing talking heads and alternative news sources has severe consequences for our friends, families, and country.

#27929 5 months ago
Quoted from DaveH:

Is there a specific reason you are stating that PCR tests are not accurate? I'd like to hear your thinking on that.
As for your link, it leads to an interview that isn't the one you are quoting. Which leads to another interview that is 30 minutes long. Could you narrow down your source a bit?

Not counting my personal experiences with them as I’ve seen them to be pretty unreliable with friends and family but here are some links I’ve found through a simple search.

The link I posted originally was in regards to home kits for testing and omicron but here is some information on pcr and false + -

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/18/13/42/variation-in-false-negative-rate-of-reverse

https://www.verywellhealth.com/covid-19-rtpcr-tests-false-negative-results-5073062#:~:text=A%20false-negative%20result%20signifies%20a%20RT-PCR%20test’s%20inability,samples%20taken%20from%20both%20hospitalized%20and%20non-hospitalized%20patients.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/why-so-many-mismatches-between-antigen-and-pcr-tests-they-may-both-be-right-1.4762035

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/how-common-false-positive-covid-tests-experts-181913360.html

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7934325/

Not saying they’re not worth using them just saying they seem to be pretty inaccurate in many cases and in a “pandemic” that sucks.

#27930 5 months ago

This is an excellent forum for information about the virus. Democracy allows us to make up our own minds

#27931 5 months ago

I believe I've never heard or read that statement (not here and not in the media in The Netherlands). Is that often claimed in the US?

#27932 5 months ago

I'm going to make sure this is the best Christmas ever and do my best to make make as many people laugh as I can. The virus will he beaten due to our superior intelligence. Hang in there everyone. We will prevail.

#27933 5 months ago

Welcome back Slayer of Straw Men! No one (except you) has suggested it is just Trump voters. Right leaning partisans are the largest block though and that affiliation is the most accurate predictor of vax status per KFF. If they would become vaccinated in numbers approaching gluten free soy latte drinkers, it would be helpful.

Low vaccination rates amongst minorities is also a problem for sure. Two different problems that may require different approaches to solve.

Mandates will be helpful - see the military as they approach 98% vaccination status.

#27934 5 months ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-22/omicron-has-80-lower-risk-of-hospitalization-new-study-shows?srnd=premium-europe

So far so good on omicron. This is the direction we were hoping for. As variants develop they become less severe despite being more contagious. A lot of over reacting going on right now. We will all eventually catch it (omicron) or another variant.

#27935 5 months ago

Detailed article on omicron severity looking at data from recent infections of delta and omicron in UK, SA, and Denmark.

By looking at infections of delta and omicron at the same calendar date, they are trying to minimize the effects of increased vaccines / previous infections in the populace.

Yes it looks like it is less severe BUT a lot of that is due to factors like age and vaccine status (omicron has a lot more breakthroughs).

Even if it is say 1/5th severity…the increased caseload and the likelihood of more healthcare workers being in quarantine at any given time will severely tax the healthcare system globally. (IHME predicting 3 billion cases in next 3 months give or take).

https://www.ft.com/content/19065fba-025c-43fd-bd76-37234af97953

Edit: added a Table from UK cases with severity corrections below. Once corrected (circled), the reduction in severity is not as pronounced and not sufficient to prevent the wave that is coming.

507241F8-E3A4-444F-A255-0861C4377FDF.jpeg
#27939 5 months ago
Quoted from BrianJ1337:

Not counting my personal experiences with them as I’ve seen them to be pretty unreliable with friends and family but here are some links I’ve found through a simple search.
The link I posted originally was in regards to home kits for testing and omicron but here is some information on pcr and false + -
https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/18/13/42/variation-in-false-negative-rate-of-reverse
https://www.verywellhealth.com/covid-19-rtpcr-tests-false-negative-results-5073062#:~:text=A%20false-negative%20result%20signifies%20a%20RT-PCR%20test’s%20inability,samples%20taken%20from%20both%20hospitalized%20and%20non-hospitalized%20patients.
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/why-so-many-mismatches-between-antigen-and-pcr-tests-they-may-both-be-right-1.4762035
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/how-common-false-positive-covid-tests-experts-181913360.html
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7934325/
Not saying they’re not worth using them just saying they seem to be pretty inaccurate in many cases and in a “pandemic” that sucks.

Ok, I think I'm seeing your issue with PCR testing. It sounds like you didn't understand that it doesn't immediately detect the virus. Quite a few of these articles that you posted explain that. They explain that a false negative can happen, even days after you catching Covid. At the point where your viral load has not reached a level they read. And that their accuracy goes up as you are symptomatic.

That has been fairly well known for quite a long time. Even the first 2 articles you posted knew it, and both of those articles over a year old.

And that is clearly another reason why we should all be wearing masks and distancing... You know... to reduce the chance of catching the deadly virus. And yes, I am actually laughing as I type that to you, because I am quite aware of your feelings on that subject.

#27940 5 months ago

UK cases at record high of 106,122 yesterday. Still no lockdown, so we'll presumably get a lot worse (in terms of case numbers anyway) than other countries that did lockdown earlier. Just like the 3 previous waves, then.

UK booster jabs are being rolled out super-fast though- as of yesterday 53.6% of population aged 12+. So our hospitalizations and deaths may turn out relatively low, and indeed there is no change yet in hospitalizations and deaths. The UK is fast to vaccinate, but slow to do anything else related to Covid, it seems! The worry here is that there will be a tsunami of hospital admissions shortly, but of course it may not happen, and here's hoping.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Edit: Today's cases were 119,789, continuing to increase rapidly (up 53% vs one week ago), but deaths and hospital admissions remain unchanged so far.

#27941 5 months ago
Quoted from Oaken:

Depends on the tests and depends on omicron or not. Some tests don’t work so well for omicron. (See link)

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/sars-cov-2-viral-mutations-impact-covid-19-tests

With delta you could test the morning of and be ok. With omicron…test right before. Very short incubation time. Can easily be negative in morning and positive at night.

Oaken , your post with those two graphics are very valuable to understanding testing (post https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/the-official-coronavirus-containment-thread/page/559#post-6668568 above) . I'm using them to inform our Christmas interactions (or lack thereof, when appropriate).

If anyone else is using these tools, note the first of the two graphics references the timeline to the patient's exposure and the second references the timeline to onset of patient's symptoms.

-Rob
-visit https://www.kahr.us to get my daughterboard that helps fix WPC pinball resets or my LED display boards for model 78, H, & S Skee Ball

#27942 5 months ago

Watching Australia's response to omicron. Sounds like they're going to let it circulate and see how the hospitalization rates fair.

#27943 5 months ago

I got my booster shot 2 days ago.

Jab 1 was OK

Jab 2 was OK

Jab 3 has me on my ass. I have the chills and that weak feeling like when the flu is coming on.

This morning is more of the same. I am living on Alka-Seltzer.

Back to bed.

#27944 5 months ago

In my personal orbit, young people (especially 18-30) have been the most vaccine-resistant. They don’t see COVID as a threat to themselves, and statistically I suppose they’re right. One 23-year-old I know is very liberal, but he’s also very conspiracy-minded. He saw a YouTube video that said the vaccine changes your DNA, and he latched onto that. Of course, any videos that talk about the dangers of smoking marijuana are immediately suspect, haha.

As an aside, I wish critical thinking was part of our K-12 curricula. In my 6th grade Social Studies class, they did a whole section on deceptive advertising. That really stuck with me.

#27948 5 months ago

An interesting statistic from a real world UK app called 'Zoe'- about 50% of 'colds' caught will be Covid:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59768366

#27949 5 months ago
Quoted from DaveH:

And that is clearly another reason why we should all be wearing masks and distancing... You know... to reduce the chance of catching the deadly virus. And yes, I am actually laughing as I type that to you, because I am quite aware of your feelings on that subject.

Doesn’t NYC have a mask mandate and vaccine passports??

Aren’t their numbers at an all-time high??

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