Learned about an emerging outbreak from a family friend who has a sick student at Tulane. The student says "everybody he knows" has it right now. It could be the big O (as the the headlines proclaim but their stories only "suspect").

https://tulane.edu/covid-19/dashboard
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/12/10/tulane-university-finds-likely-omicron-cases-amid-covid-outbreak/?sh=32e0d927494b
https://tulanehullabaloo.com/58575/news/contact-tracing-failing-as-omicron-spreads-through-tulane/

Neighboring Loyola isn't mentioned in the press but their dashboard shows 105 active cases on campus:

https://faq.loyno.edu/health-safety/covid-19-dashboard-experimental

-Rob
-visit https://www.kahr.us to get my daughterboard that helps fix WPC pinball resets or my Pinball 2000 H+V Video Sync Combiner kit

New Zealand hit 90% of eligible population double vaccinated today. This was a target set by our largest daily newspaper after delta outbreak in August. Back then we were only 20% vaccinated. I didn’t think we’d get there. Like everywhere we have our hesitant and anti groups. Very targeted activities and messages (in a positive way) to get the last groups onboard. By and large, the slowest groups to get vaccinated were urban & rural poor, young and Polynesian peoples. The more people vaccinated the more vocal the antivaxers have become, with protests every weekend now.

0A475F12-8C60-491C-8BB5-6B9E8E89477D (resized).jpeg

3rd shot boosters just started. 5-11 years start in January. Omicron not here yet as we still have quarantine at the border. Currently averaging about 100 cases a day for a population of 5 million.

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My husband works at a NY based college and yesterday they decided over the course of the day yesterday to make all finals remote and to close the buildings for the balance of the year. This is after they started to see a significant uptick in positive cases, so very similar to what your neighbor is reporting.

It's a good thing that they can't spread it

Are you vaccinated? If you have said so in the past, I missed it.

That's a HIPAA violation ain't it?

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/omicron-appears-to-evade-vaccines-better-than-other-variants-69525

Summary (the bad, then the good news)

Two dozes of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine provided just 33 percent protection against infection during a surge in infections in South Africa that is dominated by the new Omicron variant (...) for people who are fully vaccinated but have never been infected with the coronavirus, the vaccination may lower their risk of infection by less than 30 percent.

The results jibe with another study on vaccine effectiveness against Omicron, from a pair of researchers at the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC) who predict that two doses of Pfizer/BioNTech’s vaccine or Moderna’s similar mRNA vaccine provide only about 30 percent protection against symptomatic infection—and that’s soon after vaccination, before protection starts waning. After more than four months, protection is “essentially eliminated,” Kilpatrick tells Reuters. The analysis suggested that booster shots could restore protection to about 48 percent“

On a more positive note, the newly released data from South Africa and the preprint from the UCSC team, indicate that vaccines still offer fairly robust protection against severe disease, though it did take a hit as well. Protection against severe disease offered by the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine dropped from 93 percent during the country’s Delta surge to about 70 percent in recent weeks.

Thery found that mRNA vaccination initially provides about 86 percent protection against severe disease caused by Omicron, with that number waning over time but able to be restored to 91 percent with a booster.

Early data indicate that the Omicron variant may cause less severe disease than variants that came before it, regardless of vaccination status.

That's strange: last time I looked I thought I was healthy and was someone, but apparently I'm not. I'm testing twice a week, and I don't have to. It's just a selftest, and that only picks out about 40% of positive asymptomatic, but that's still better than nothing. I teach in a High School, so there's enough reason for me to test regularly, but all employees are free to test or not (and quite a lot do test often like myself, those are also 'no ones' you're talking about(?), and some don't or hardly test at all).

Would this suggest we are beating the virus and mutations won't be as deadly in the future?

He answered that pretty emphatically, No.

I just want to pat him on the head like a child when he says stuff like this.

And yet our health care system has been at the breaking point for over a year. We can’t keep going on like this.

Going to be really interesting to see what happens to case counts after the holidays.

Cases shooting up in the UK currently. Last 4 days-

54,661
59,610
78,610
88,376 (today)

Apart from O, another factor is the new law requiring a Covid pass to go to many venues, meaning a lot more tests being done (up 19% in the last 7 days), dare I say by people more likely to have the 'vid e.g. young 'uns going clubbing. But still, phwooar, eh? Say no more.

A helluva achievement to reach 90%. Assume this is for population aged 12+? Here, we are at 81.5% 2 jabs, 89.3% 1 jab, but racing ahead with boosters, which are already @ 44.3% of the population (12+).

0.75 million booster jabs given in the last day. Phew. That's a lotta jabbing.

I would imagine you’re the minority here. I don’t know anyone personally testing themselves randomly when they aren’t showing any symptoms.
Not saying people aren’t as in your case, trying to stay ahead of it but I imagine most people in that 40%+ of asymptomatic infections have already had covid and didn’t even realize it. Much like vaccinated can carry and be asymptomatic too.

I don't think it will be all that interesting. Cases will rise after the holidays just as they have after every holiday where people gather and spread COVID.

That language sounds like it is coming from someone who is thoroughly jaded with the almost 2 year saga. Although, perhaps virus-juggernaut might be a better choice of words than saga.

I trust you are holding up OK ?

In the Netherlands I think the majority of the teachers is testing (I don't have percentages to back this up). And most have been vaccinated as well, that's for sure.
It's a recommendation, tests are being distributed through schools and besides the costs for the government and the garbage those tests give I can't think of a reason not to do it. Cost for the government would probably be higher if we didn't have those self tests that one in a while picks an infected teacher so he or she won't infect students or colleagues.

Would you do tests yourself if your work handed them to you for free? Why would you, or why wouldn't you?

We use home tests here prior to prolonged gathering with other households so no one has to mask up.

For short visits, we just wear masks if either party has been exposed. It’s no big deal and the smart thing to do. No one wants to be sick over the holidays.

And here is Ontario. Omicron will take over in a week give or take.

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Home tests should have been done from the start.

You're going into further restrictions whilst your numbers grow, while down here in Aus, we are opening up despite growing numbers. In the past we were the lock down country. Now we're the reverse - for what ever reason but having 90+% of Australias population over 16 vaccinated may be one reason.

I'm fine, thanks for asking though. I'm just getting awfully tired of the people who continue to believe Facebook conspiracy theories over the advice of their own doctor whom they claim to trust. It's been two years of frustration and emotional drainage.

And I'm also very realistic about the compliance of the American public and their ability (or inability) to make appropriate decisions based on their risk factors and the risk factors of those around them.

COVID will spike again in January. Hopefully not a horrible spike but it certainly will happen.

So what happens if their doctor tells them not to get the jab.

There are a small percentage of patients who have medical issues that would preclude their vaccination. A very small percentage. And if that patient’s doctor advises them to not be vaccinated then that’s fine.

What’s your point?

P.S. Would it blow your mind to learn that I personally have advised some patients to not be vaccinated?

If they are like my aunt recovering from radiation…they minimize their exposure, mask when they cannot, until their immune system can recover…and then they get vaccinated.

You know…same as always.

Which countries rolled out vaccines faster (nice animation showing progress over time):

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/dec/17/vaccine-rollout-data-by-country-shows-who-has-vaccinated-faster-and-why-exposing-the-global-covid-19-divide

An example of levels of intelligent protest.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/florida-man-united-airlines-flight-womens-underwear-covid-19-mask

I think Andy Heighway has the record for most downvoted single post - was well over 300 IIRC

(I can't figure out how to post the pics in between the text where I want, but hopefully you should be able to follow)

The following is unfiltered direct data from the hospital I work in - not government/media filtered scaremongering just hard data, from Walsall.
IMAGE 1

What I take from this graph:

Up until April of this year there was a clear 2 week lag between community infection and hospitalisation.
If the virus was rising in the community it was guaranteed to result in increased admissions in to hospital.

Seeing as we were all told not to mix at Christmas and were meant to be working from home, and as good as isolating, it is clear from the massive surge shortly following Dec 24th that a huge amount of people ignored the government advice and instruction - what else is there to explain the massive spike?

As weather warmed up and people spent more time outside the infection rate dropped.

From June - community infection rates started to climb significantly. This is shortly after Delta became the most prevalent variant in the area.
I suspect that it is also around the time that people started to think that we 'had beaten Covid' and could return to normal, mask wearing reduced, hand washing reduced and increased social activity, as restrictions were lifted in regard to pubs opening, mass events reopening.

Hospitalisations did not increase at the same rate as previously.
This is likely to be a combination of Delta not being as serious as Beta - and most importantly the number of people vaccinated, meaning that even if they did contract Covid, they did not need hospitalising (which is pretty much the point of the vaccine).

From October the percentage of infection/hospitalisation is starting to creep up - likely to be the waning of the effectiveness of the initial vaccine.

From the start of Dec there is a clear uptick in community infections - likely Omicron. There is sure to follow an increase in hospital admissions - the question is by how much? We won't be able to make a significant judgement on the seriousness of Omicron until between Xmas and New Year. Do you really want to wait until then before deciding whether to get a booster or to reduce socialising over the Christmas period? It will be too late to do anything if Omicron turns out to be anywhere near as serious as Delta.

IMAGE 2

The above shows the age of patients who have presented at hospital with Covid symptoms.
Purple - meant that they weren't admitted and could manage their symptoms from home.
Green - they had to be admitted, but subsequently recovered enough to have been sent home to complete their rehabilitation.
Red - they left in a body bag.

Although it is clear from this that the older you are the more likely you would have to have had severe enough symptoms to have to come to hospital to be assessed , there are still a significant number of younger age groups who have been severely affected.

IMAGE 3

This is the same data as the previous graph, but presented slightly differently. Making it easier to assess the outcome of each patient by age.

For someone aged between 50-54 who has to come to hospital there is a 8.1% chance of them dying. To put that in a different way, that is roughly a 13 to 1 shot of dying. To try and put that in to perspective - I won a bet last night of 14 to 1 for Alexander-Arnold to score from outside the penalty area!
These figures rise rapidly the older you get, or if you have any underlying issues.

I simply cannot understand - after almost 2 years - how people can claim such things as "it's no worse than a common cold" , "vaccines don't work" , "it's not that bad" , "it's a conspiracy" , do not understand simple maths, put the same weight from a YouTube video as they do a briefing from the Chief Medical Officer, or simply try and deflect and blame the government.

It shouldn't need an enforced lockdown, it shouldn't need constant reinforcing of the need for vaccines and booster jabs, but quite clearly it does.

Go and get whatever jab you need to get up to date, whether that be your first, second or third, wear a mask in enclosed public spaces, wash your hands and stop trying to apportion blame or claim entitlement to the freedoms that being part of a society brings you in the first place.

admissions (resized).png

outcome (resized).png

outcome 2 (resized).png

From virus standpoint, severity changes are random. No evolutionary pressure.

Omicron specifically Imperial college says no:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/modelling-suggests-rapid-spread-omicron-england/

Keep in mind delta is somewhere around 4x as severe as vanilla covid. So even if omicron severity is found to have a big drop off…we are still going to be as high or higher than vanilla…with a SIGNIFICANT increase in transmission.

I fear we are looking at a cat 5 hurricane bearing down on us but are not treating it as such. We need those covid treatment pills stocked and ready to go now. People simply won’t vaccinate in time, will regret it in a few weeks, and will need something to help them.

Edit: I also find this tidbit quite bad for the “previous infection protects me” crowd:

“To put this into context, in the pre-Omicron era, the UK “SIREN” study of COVID infection in healthcare workers estimated that prior infection afforded 85% protection against a second COVID infection over 6 months. The reinfection risk estimated in the current study suggests this protection has fallen to 19% (95%CI: 0-27%) against an Omicron infection.“

And now this, the flu vaccine doesn't match the main circulating strain....

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/16/health/flu-vaccine-mismatch/index.html

Also, currently Sotrovimab is the only monoclonal effective vs Omicron, the others don’t work.

Supply is limited.

So, all those infusion centers are going to have to sort patients into delta and omicron and save the sotrovimab for the omicron.

What a mess.

Canada is having its problems, too.

Canadian employers, facing labor shortage, accommodate the unvaccinated

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/05/business/canada-labor-shortage-unvaccinated/?hpt=ob_blogfooterold

Employers: just keep on kissing the asses of the unvaccinated and the vaccinated will leave, and you will still be shorthanded.

" There are pitfalls to employing the unvaccinated. Companies run a higher risk of COVID-19 outbreaks and many vaccinated employees are uncomfortable working with those who have not had the jab, said industry groups and marketing experts.
At Luda Foods, a Montreal-based soup and sauce maker, president Robert Eiser said he has 14 open jobs, no vaccine mandate and no plans to restrict new hires to the vaccinated."

It's simple, write you text, ad an image, Lather, Rinse, Repeat:

Untitled (resized).jpg

All the more reason to continue mask wearing and distancing vigilance!

But probably still a good idea to get the Flu shot though:
"-- an indication they may not do much to prevent infection, researchers reported Thursday. But they are still likely to prevent severe illness."

No disagreement here. I was supposed to get mine with my booster, but after waiting over an hour just for the booster, when I only saw 1 needle, I did not say anything.