(Topic ID: 264520)

The official Coronavirus containment thread

By Daditude

4 years ago


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#201 4 years ago

Yes they detected 2 strains, but one they found only a few samples of.

Researchers analyzed 103 sequenced genomes using strains from China, and found that 70% of strains were one type, which they called "L." The "L" strain was more aggressive than the remaining 30% of strains, which were dubbed "S."

Dr. Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa who has researched SARS and MERS, said that the new paper didn't prove that one strain was more aggressive or faster spreading than the other.

Note: this is from a week ago so there may be newer updated data

14
#202 4 years ago
Quoted from cdnpinbacon:

This is fascinating Doctor. Thank You for trusted opinions.

You’re welcome. I’m just another pinhead trying to do what I can to help our community.

#203 4 years ago

Lots of people will be following your lead.

#204 4 years ago

Someones research apparently wasn't as comprehensive as they thought.

#205 4 years ago

I think the biggest fear is to have it bloom all at once which will overload the system. Kind of a power surge that pops a breaker. The thing is just trying to get everyone on board with just laying low for a while.

#206 4 years ago
Quoted from PantherCityPins:

L type and S type.

Ok, confirmed. So not panicking over 2 strains. If that’s increases significantly then I’ll change my opinion

#207 4 years ago
Quoted from PantherCityPins:

Without significant limitations on person to person spread it will become widespread within a month or so in the US.
Yes, we will eventually get a handle on it, the question is how many people will die before we do. If we keep our medical system from being overwhelmed we will have fewer deaths.
Vaccine is 12-18 months from being widely available from what I have seen and heard so far.
There are several drugs out there that may have some benefit based on anecdotal evidence but it remains to be seen if that effect will hold up under more widespread use. I will say that there isn’t a whole lot we have in our toolbox at the moment so most doctors are willing to try drugs that may help.
Thanks for your questions.

Thank you. Can I/we assume you are currently working in hospital? Of so, how are your PPE supplies holding up? Do you expect PPE shortages in future if you are not already experiencing them? How well is the mental state of the health care workers were you are located? Are they keeping it together or are they starting to freak out?

#208 4 years ago

This guy.

Quoted from wolfemaaan:

Ok, confirmed. So not panicking over 2 strains. If that’s increases significantly then I’ll change my opinion

10
#209 4 years ago
Quoted from hAbO:

I think the biggest fear is to have it bloom all at once which will overload the system which can cause more deaths than needed. Kind of a power surge that pops a breaker. The thing is just trying to get everyone on board with just laying low for a while.

This is correct. The idea of flattening the curve is to avoid overloading our medical system in the short term.

Also important to realize that many patients in China were infected by people who were not yet showing symptoms. That’s why it’s important to follow the guidelines for social distancing even if you don’t feel sick.

#210 4 years ago

Any microbiologists here to interact with the Doctor?

#211 4 years ago

Meanwhile, in Italy...
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/europe/italy-military-coronavirus-intl/index.html

FYI, France is currently 9-days late compared to Italy. In other words, what happens in Italy today is what we will experience in 9 days. We manage to increase the gap by two days (it was 7 not too long ago) and I don't really know why/how.

11
#212 4 years ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

Thank you. Can I/we assume you are currently working in hospital? Of so, how are your PPE supplies holding up? Do you expect PPE shortages in future if you are not already experiencing them? How well is the mental state of the health care workers were you are located? Are they keeping it together or are they starting to freak out?

I worked in a hospital for 11 years and left that to open a clinic about 18 months ago. I was informed yesterday by my old hospital that I could be called back in during a surge.

PPE supplies are not great. We need more gowns and N-95 masks.

The folks I know are doing ok, here in Texas we haven’t seen a surge like what is happening in New York yet. We’re all concerned but determined to do our jobs the best we can.

#213 4 years ago

What is your best Guess Doctor on the business as usual time? 1, year?

#214 4 years ago
Quoted from cdnpinbacon:

What is your best Guess Doctor on the business as usual time? 1, year?

It’s not clear yet however my personal guess is that this current outbreak will extend into May/June at least. We may see a lull in the summer and I am hoping we don’t see another spike in the fall.

Not sure on business as usual. My guess is the current 15 day effort is 15 days and reassess.

#215 4 years ago
Quoted from wolfemaaan:

If they were reporting Covad 19 and Covad 20, etc we’re developing then I’d be concerned

Your continuous misspelling "Covad" says it all.

#216 4 years ago
Quoted from hAbO:

I think the biggest fear is to have it bloom all at once which will overload the system. Kind of a power surge that pops a breaker. The thing is just trying to get everyone on board with just laying low for a while.

Exactly - lowering the peak.

Quoted from wolfemaaan:

Ok, confirmed. So not panicking over 2 strains. If that’s increases significantly then I’ll change my opinion

Ironically, when a virus mutates it normally becomes less aggressive, not more aggressive.

Quoted from PantherCityPins:

This is correct. The idea of flattening the curve is to avoid overloading our medical system in the short term.
Also important to realize that many patients in China were infected by people who were not yet showing symptoms. That’s why it’s important to follow the guidelines for social distancing even if you don’t feel sick.

The worrying part, that wolfemaaan just doesn't seem to be able to grasp, is that both the US and the UK have fewer ICU beds per capita than Italy, where the system is already beyond breaking point.

#217 4 years ago

How many days are we (USA) behind Italy?

#218 4 years ago
Quoted from PantherCityPins:

I’m reluctant to wade into this thread but in the interest of helping someone who may have honest questions I will.
I am a board certified internal medicine physician working in the Fort Worth, Texas area.
If anyone has a question regarding COVID-19 I will be happy to try and answer.
Please be aware I will ignore troll posts.
Thanks, wash your hands, limit your unnecessary exposure to others and stay safe!

Is it true that you can be reinfected, or is once you get it and recover there is no chance of catching it again?

#219 4 years ago

That is undetermined yet

#220 4 years ago
Quoted from Atrain:

How many days are we (USA) behind Italy?

Hard to say, the US curve is currently closely mirroring that of Italy. We won’t know whether the social distancing is making a difference until next week sometime.

#221 4 years ago

Doctor be prepared for alot of questions coming your way but we all knew you were a doctor anyhow..Thanks again for your info as you know it

13
#222 4 years ago
Quoted from henrydwh:

Is it true that you can be reinfected, or is once you get it and recover there is no chance of catching it again?

That’s not yet clear. Generally you will be immune to a strain of virus after recovering from it. Having said that there are two strains currently known and it’s not clear if you can get S type after recovering from L type or vice versa.

There are some reports of reinfections but it’s not clear whether these are testing anomalies or true reinfections. Stay tuned.

#223 4 years ago

It's just been announced over here in the UK that all cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, clubs etc will be closed indefinitely from tonight. Only takeaways will be allowed to open.

Also, another 627 people have died in Italy in the past 24 hours, the largest daily rise since the start of the outbreak.

-1
#224 4 years ago

I did not see the cumulative total deaths for the yearly normal flu (influenza);
in the History of Pandemics.
I guess since the yearly (seasonal) flu,
which still kills 100s of thousands of people every year (Globally)
(Tens of Thousands deaths every year nationally)
has never been called a pandemic with exception of the Spanish flu (post WWI era).

#225 4 years ago

Doctor: Are there hiv threads attached to this virus making it hide?

#226 4 years ago

Anybody planning on starting some online tournaments or anything like that?

#227 4 years ago
Quoted from cdnpinbacon:

Are there hiv threads attached to this virus making it hide?

There is not a link between SARS-CoV-2 and HIV.

This virus has an ability to spread in the 2-3 days before symptoms appear in the patient. That’s why it appears to hide.

#228 4 years ago

Student loan repayments have been suspended. I can't give credit where credit is due in fear that it would be considered ....

#229 4 years ago

Thank You. ..A question I wanted answered

#230 4 years ago
Quoted from PantherCityPins:

Without significant limitations on person to person spread it will become widespread within a month or so in the US.
Yes, we will eventually get a handle on it, the question is how many people will die before we do. If we keep our medical system from being overwhelmed we will have fewer deaths.
Vaccine is 12-18 months from being widely available from what I have seen and heard so far.
There are several drugs out there that may have some benefit based on anecdotal evidence but it remains to be seen if that effect will hold up under more widespread use. I will say that there isn’t a whole lot we have in our toolbox at the moment so most doctors are willing to try drugs that may help.
Thanks for your questions.

When can we start saying 11-17 months on the vaccine?

#231 4 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

If the economy can't withstand what is happening now, then it wasn't much of an economy. If everything was the best its ever been 2 weeks ago, where are all the reserves? That money didn't just disappear. It traded hands..and who's hands do you think it went to?

All the money is in the hands of the 1% and chances are it will be staying there.

18
#232 4 years ago

I have a niece, who happens to be a teacher, posting pics on Facebook of her and her 4 boys and their girlfriends over for dinner. When someone posted about staying home, she said they're like family and share the same germs anyway.

I'm fucking speechless.

#233 4 years ago

Pinball_Gizzard What steps is your random hospital in Texas taking to expand capacity in preparation for a likely patient crunch? Do you have estimates on when infections/hospitalizations/deaths will peak?

#234 4 years ago
Quoted from Bryan_Kelly:

I have a niece, who happens to be a teacher, posting pics on Facebook of her and her 4 boys and their girlfriends over for dinner. When someone posted about staying home, she said they're like family and share the same germs anyway.
I'm fucking speechless.

Well I suppose as long as they keep it in the family?

#235 4 years ago
Quoted from Bryan_Kelly:

I have a niece, who happens to be a teacher, posting pics on Facebook of her and her 4 boys and their girlfriends over for dinner. When someone posted about staying home, she said they're like family and share the same germs anyway.
I'm fucking speechless.

Shame them and call a family meeting so everybody can sink it in

#236 4 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

tough call when someone is basically spreading what could be considered false information as fact, but the reality is we don't really know one way or the other yet...

There is a bunch of this in this thread and particularly the prior thread from people saying that it was no big deal to people saying the world is going to end today. People are letting fear and politics cloud judgment. Please think before you post, folks.

11
#237 4 years ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Pinball_Gizzard What steps is your random hospital in Texas taking to expand capacity in preparation for a likely patient crunch? Do you have estimates on when infections/hospitalizations/deaths will peak?

The hospital has surge plans in place. Physicians and nurses in the community may be called back into the hospital to see patients.

Case peaks will depend on whether the American people act responsibly to control the spread.

#238 4 years ago

PantherCityPins So SARS was linked to be a seasonal wintertime virus. Are you expecting the same behavior from Covid 19 meaning the warmer summertime weather will solve this on its own?

10
#239 4 years ago
Quoted from wolfemaaan:

pinball_gizzard So SARS was linked to be a seasonal wintertime virus. Are you expecting the same behavior from Covid 19 meaning the warmer summertime weather will solve this on its own?

SARS was a novel coronavirus that jumped from animals to humans similar to SARS-CoV-2. It’s not a seasonal virus in the same way we think of seasonal flu.

Viral illnesses in general are less common in the summer months. This is related to people being outside more and inside less as well as the effect of UV light helping to inactivate viral particles.

I am hopeful we will see a decrease in transmission during the summer but it is possible we see another surge in the fall. It’s too early to tell. Right now we need to focus on mitigating the damage from the current outbreak.

-4
#240 4 years ago
Quoted from PantherCityPins:

SARS was a novel coronavirus that jumped from animals to humans similar to SARS-CoV-2. It’s not a seasonal virus in the same way we think of seasonal flu.
Viral illnesses in general are less common in the summer months. This is related to people being outside more and inside less as well as the effect of UV light helping to inactivate viral particles.
I am hopeful we will see a decrease in transmission during the summer but it is possible we see another surge in the fall. It’s too early to tell. Right now we need to focus on mitigating the damage from the current outbreak.

Ok so you are expecting Covid 19 to possibly shell itself and then return when it gets cold again.

Curious why it’s impervious to hot weather? Maybe I should suntan and keep my heater on

#241 4 years ago

Fishing

#242 4 years ago

Is that jean Cretian asking about the elephant in the room? Any opinion is democratic until the person asking stops talking

#243 4 years ago

DOCTOR : the virus is just as active in hot weather?data says yes ...A certain strain is more active in heat ?

#244 4 years ago
Quoted from Bryan_Kelly:

I have a niece, who happens to be a teacher, posting pics on Facebook of her and her 4 boys and their girlfriends over for dinner. When someone posted about staying home, she said they're like family and share the same germs anyway.
I'm fucking speechless.

Stupidity will be our doom. There is no end to it. Ive had some in my family as well.

32
#245 4 years ago
Quoted from wolfemaaan:

Ok so you are expecting Covid 19 to possibly shell itself and then return when it gets cold again.
Curious why it’s impervious to hot weather? Maybe I should suntan and keep my heater on

I would encourage you to take this pandemic seriously and follow the recommendations of the medical community and your government. If not for you, then for your neighbors. If nothing else, cut my colleagues in your area a break and do your part to reduce the number of patients we have to treat in the hospital.

Quoted from cdnpinbacon:

DOCTOR : the virus is just as active in hot weather?data says yes ...A certain strain is more active in heat ?

I haven’t seen data showing a significant difference based on ambient temperature of the area. If we saw a marked increase in transmission in southern hemisphere countries we might suspect some effect but we are not seeing that.

#246 4 years ago
Quoted from wolfemaaan:

Ok so you are expecting Covid 19 to possibly shell itself and then return when it gets cold again.
Curious why it’s impervious to hot weather? Maybe I should suntan and keep my heater on

no need for a heater..your full of "hot air"

#247 4 years ago

If the airlines get bailed out it still may not be enough to save the airline industry.

The small regional carriers do not appear to be a part of the relief package.

"Two regional airlines that fly feeder flights for United, Delta and American airlines will halt operations in the next few weeks, marking the first US carriers to be grounded by the coronavirus outbreak."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/business/regional-airlines-halt-operations-coronavirus/index.html

#248 4 years ago

Doctor: should we shut down the world until 2021? Your opinion. Last question

#249 4 years ago
Quoted from cdnpinbacon:

Doctor: should we shut down the world until 2021?

Hah, no. This virus will probably be an issue at some level for 12-18 months until the vaccine is widely available. Life will probably look different until then but I don’t think a shutdown will be needed for that long.

#250 4 years ago

Interesting read. Severity of the virus possibly linked to the use of anti-inflamatory drugs such as ibuprofen.

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/do-you-want-to-know-why-so-many-people-in-italy-are-dying-of-the-coronavirus

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