Uh oh.
https://thesaxon.org/israel-concern-over-increase-in-delta-variant-coronavirus-cases-even-among-vaccinated/50451/

My wife and I got our 2nd jab (moderna ) on Saturday. Sore arm a little sluggish next day.

This article supports what you say about being vaccinated.

"A coronavirus outbreak hit a Florida government building. Two people are dead but a vaccinated employee wasn't infected"

" The only exposed employee in the IT office who was vaccinated did not get infected, Hopes said."

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/22/us/florida-manatee-county-coronavirus-outbreak/index.html

2 Dead, 3 others tested positive, all unvaccinated. So far all vaccinated employees in the group unaffected.

https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/manatee-county-administration-building-set-to-reopen-after-outbreak-of-covid-19-kills-2-people-infects-several-employees/

I hope everything works out for them and their beliefs because the Delta variant is here, up from 10% to 14'ish % of all new cases.

"The most recent model finds that a Delta-like variant that's assumed to be 60% more transmissible than Alpha, coupled with 75% of eligible Americans getting vaccinated, can result in Covid-19 bouncing back from summer lows to cause more than 3,000 deaths per week at various points during the fall and winter -- coinciding with children returning to school and weather that pushes people back indoors."

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/22/health/covid-variant-delta-gamma/index.html

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/06/22/1008859705/delta-variant-coronavirus-unvaccinated-u-s-covid-surge

I know it’s partly math but how do they get at the more transmissible data? It seems like each new strain is more transmissible than the last. At some point do you get 100% more and just walking by someone you get infected immediately?

no vax no foo.excellent last time I saw them.

This was always a race to inoculate before mutation. That’s what viruses do. Another wave coming.

This article is scary as hell.......until you read it.

Yeah its full of misleading info with info worded to deceive like the 13 people that died vaccinated but.....before the 2 week inoculation of the second shot. Some cant help but bend or warp the words to fit there agenda, I cant stand that!

A bit of hand waving, but basically they are looking at the R0 values. R0 doesn't exactly measure what you are asking, but it IS a way to measure how transmissible a disease is in general.

Several of these mutations have gotten progressively higher R0. Original was at around 2-3. Delta is at around 5-8. Still quite a ways to go before we hit measles levels (R0=18).

Here's an article essentially posing your same question.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57431420

I'm not sure how you think that it's a month out of date?

I've literally taken it from the LIVE hospital data I have access to.

It is my feeling that this has been the case on both sides from day 1. There is obvious conclusions but most has been smoke and mirrors to me. Everyone trying to twist info to fit their narrative. Seems that's all that happens with anything anymore.

Stay safe everyone!

Chris

Sorry, it was the best I could find for Canada. Not sure how you concluded they were before the 2 week waiting period? Clearer stats from the CDC with 549 (671-122) deaths of fully vaccinated individuals.

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The daily case numbers are still increasing slightly in the UK, but much less than exponential now, and may start levelling off soon. Also, the consequences of infection seem minimal. Average age of infection is 24, who mostly don't get sick, and mostly unvaccinated folks of course. All over-18s are being vaccinated at scale currently, so I'm hoping this ends up as a ripple not a wave (of cases). Over-12s vaccination to start soon (although being debated whether and how to target this), and third jab in the autumn for everyone.

All that said, this thing isn't over, and it's amazing how many places seem to think it is. The UK delayed full unlocking to 19th July, to allow remaining folks to be vaccinated first. But NY, California etc all opened up now?

It's hardly surprising. There were plenty of folks who wanted everything opened back up here well before we even had the vaccines. I think some of the restrictions were lifted a bit too soon, but unfortunately there's no putting that cork back in the bottle now.

No worries man i get your just trying to grasp the situation and make sense of the it all and have fears of where this vaccine/covid is heading, we all do. The link you posted was the same info you posted a link of before a few weeks ago is how i knew about the 13 cases. Go back and reread the original link and it says those 13 that you have brought up two times now says before the 2 weeks inoculation after 2nd shot.

The new info you posted about USA where hundreds million plus have been vaccinated more then Canada there will be breakthrough cases since the 2 shot vaccines are only 90-95% effective plus the J&J vaccine makes the overall numbers messed up because as far as i can tell you still can get sick with that shot just not as badly sick usually. So 144 million fully vaccinated and 549 have died from Covid out of that 144 million is what that CDC link says, or .00038% death rate of fully vaccinated. Thats some pretty good odds if you ask me!!!!

This article has some good details on where each state stands in terms of reopening:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html

Great point Oaken.

Yesterday my county hit herd immunity, going over 70% full vaccination status for everyone 12 and over. I think we are ahead of most of the country at this point.

It took a long time to get here and we will be dropping our mask mandates next Monday. I have mixed feelings about that, but mostly positive, I think we kept them way longer than most and waited until the vaccination and infection rate data backed this next step. The rolling average for new cases in Seattle is now down to about 12.5 new cases a day, it hasn't been this low since May of 2020. I still haven't taken my mask off indoors in a room with people who's vaccination status I don't know, but I feel like that moment is probably coming in the next few weeks. Luckily it's Summer and we now have 500% more outdoor dining and drinking options, one benefit of the pandemic, which is great because I can bring my dog out with me to so many more places than a few years ago.

I have been pleasantly surprised by how well getting back to normal has been going here in MN. I fully expected an uptick in cases when all the restrictions went away. Boy was I way off. We are sitting at levels not seen since April 2020, and our test positivity rate is under 1%. Hospitals are clearing out too. Twin Cities metro and Rochester are above 70% vaccinated, but the rest of the state is far behind.

Now I am bracing for when delta establishes here. Hope to be wrong again, but I look at Britain and Israel...and I have a bad feeling about this. Thinking that just in time for the school year, we will start climbing back up. Mostly among the young, so hopefully at least the hospital system won't be tested again. Also optimistic that if it does happen again, then this time my wife will have fresh masks and won't have to wear a garbage bag. That was not fun last time.

Rumor is that 5 and above will be approved before school year starts, so that will be one less thing to worry about. Doesn't help much with the littlest ones though.

Alberta and Saskatchewan are both dropping mask mandates here soon even though were nowhere near 70% immunity. Selfish dumbasses everywhere already ignoring policies. I'll still be wearing mine when I go out shopping, that's for sure.

Got my second stab of Pfizer yesterday. Had a sore arm last night night shooting pool but woke up this morning with no side effects at all. No sore arm or nothing.

Man, we aren’t going to get to herd immunity down here in the dumb South.

UK is at least 85% immunity (adults) now, but still cases are rising, from 11,600 day before yesterday to 16,100 yesterday. I'd say 'herd immunity' would require 90% immunity at least, based on the UK experience. Measles requires 95% for herd immunity, I believe, and this might be the kind of level we need? 70% certainly not enough, and definitely not with Delta.

I'll feel more comfortable when UK cases stop rising! Certainly shows what a disaster the early 'herd immunity' theories of people like Cummings would have been, had they gone down the Swedish 'let it rip' approach.

Same here, had the Astra Zeneca/Pfizer combo and zero side effects from Pfizer but Astra was pretty tough for a couple days.

Move over delta and say hello to delta plus.

I assume it’s like regular delta but with no ads. (Couldn’t help myself. Bad streaming service joke.)

Seriously though, of course it’s got the potential for higher transmission, but the real concern to me is that it may render ineffective monoclonal treatments, (the primary treatment success story).

1)..........................116, 516 U.S. Service members died during WW 1. ( war years 1914-1918 )

2)..........................405,399 ................................................WW 2. ( war years Dec. 1941--Sept. 1945)

3)...........................36, 516.....................................................Korea. ( war years June 1950--July 1953)

4)...........................58,209 .....................................................Viet Nam ( war years 1955 --1973 ).
=======================
TOTAL..................616,640 U.S. Service member deaths

U.S. Civil War........620,000

Covid 19: ( war years? Jan. 2020--today June 21, 2021. ). 18 months running.

Total U.S. deaths.

So far: 618,302.

No need to worry, folks. It's just the flu.

Screen Shot 2021-06-24 at 10.37.32 AM (resized).png

https://science.slashdot.org/story/21/06/23/2345228/scientist-finds-early-virus-sequences-that-had-been-mysteriously-deleted

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/23/science/coronavirus-sequences.html

Proof of Delta Variant Infection via fleeting encounter. Yikes!!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-22/covid19-cctv-footage-worrying-nsw-health-authorities/100231832

I really hope they can make a booster vaccine for the Delta variant by this Fall, I'd hate for us to go backwards on this pandemic and need to go back to into stricter lockdown. Maybe this will be the thing that finally makes more people embrace the vaccine.

While UK politicians are relatively complacent about the Delta variant (e.g. massive crowds to be allowed at Wembley for the England vs Germany game), European leaders are very worried they will catch it from the UK. I agree, and think it likely they will have another wave, just as they did with the Alpha (UK) variant early in the year. One major concern is that the % vaccinated remains much lower in mainland Europe than in the UK and US. In addition, Europe has lifted most lockdown restrictions now.

"Covid-19: Europe braces for surge in Delta variant"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57594954

Today the UK had 16,703 new cases vs 16,100 yesterday (99.9% Delta). Is it starting to peak? I really, really hope so.

So things are opening up here in Ohio, but weirdly. In my other hobby (see avatar) there is a vintage truck show near Dayton Ohio that I like to attend. This particular show caters to the original, stock trucks (IE, the really hard to drive beasts with no A/C and sketchy suspension and braking, etc). So said show, happening the first week of August announced there would be no preregistration this year (as in year's past), only same day/on site registration, and the show will be limited to the first 150 trucks that can check in day of show. All others "will be turned away". So how is that supposed to work?? And why would people drive a difficult and frankly dangerous-to-drive vehicle all that way to probably be turned away at the gate?

I pondered this situation for all of 5 seconds and came up with 2 conclusions, and I'm an idiot:

1) No way am I driving the truck to this one since, frankly, experience has shown I have no chance of waking up before most of these old guys seem to like to on a Saturday.
2) If you are going to limit attendance, fine, wouldn't it make sense to *only* do preregistration? So the folks driving there know they have a spot?

Sorry for the cargument but hopefully the folks planning pinball shows and events use more common sense than this show is.

Don’t we already have them? I’ve read in multiple places that the mRNA vaccines are highly effective against the Delta variant.

The link mcluvin posted above would scare the crap out of me if I wasn’t vaccinated. Catching it from just a passing encounter? Yikes! When that becomes prevalent, that will really spread quickly among unvaccinated people.

I belong to a Rolls-Royce club, and the solution they came up with during these rather challenging times was to hold a picnic meet in the private grounds of a mansion-owning member, who has a couple of hundred acres to park the Bentleys and Rollers on. Sickening isn't it?

I’m watching how things go in Colorado and Missouri. A significant portion of sequenced samples are the Delta variant in those 2 states.

The state of emergency in NY has ended as of 6/24.

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-new-york-ending-covid-19-state-disaster-emergency-june-24

https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Gov-Cuomo-makes-an-announcement-16267924.php

Meanwhile in Canada, a small group of protesters blocked highway traffic to prevent vaccine supplies from getting through (which apparently started as a protest of province border closures, but then got hijacked by anti-vaxxers?).

https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/o76iqf/canadian_civilians_blocking_the_only_entrance_to/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/arrests-made-at-n-b-n-s-border-as-rcmp-break-up-blockade-1.6077894

Certainly, they canceled the meets here and have been cruising around a route in the city instead, its been nice to watching them drive by.

Can't speak about EU as a whole, but for France, we are (fortunately) late with the delta variant, which is not yet dominant, except in one area, and we are also late with vaccination.

There is no doubt the Delta variant will be predominant in a few weeks, and it remains to be seen if enough people will be vaccinated by then. Not super optimistic, as we seem to have finally reached the stage where most people who wanted to be vaccinated already got an appointment. We still have 30% reluctant or actively hostile - that would have been acceptable with the original strain, but not with delta.
We need more like 90% vaccinated or cured to reach herd immunity.

We are following UK closely...as for many things, good or bad, the Brits are ahead of us

JLM

So Pinfest is at the end of July. It's starting to sound like a bad idea. Only time will tell but surely Delta is going to ramp up in that time.

I don't have anything to say except that I'm worried.

That was because the Premier of Nova Scotia reneged on a plan to re-open last minute with New Brunswick. Angering his entire province, New Brunswick and others across Canada who made plans to travel and see family in the Maritimes.

The border closure had less to do with anti-vaxxers and more to do with people being told last minute that the plan to re-open was suddenly scrapped. All because Premier Rankin doesn't see eye to eye with the Premier of New Brunswick and wanted to act like child and take his ball and go home.

Rankin backtracked completely yesterday at a press conference and the plan for an Atlantic bubble with vaccinated Canadians from other provinces being allowed in (without self isolating) is back on.

He looked like a bitter child during that press conference

I know this because I have family in both provinces and we are planning to see them next week after we drive across the country. (This has been a scheduling nightmare for all of us)

We had to submit entry forms online with the government of New Brunswick to be allowed in. And show documentation of vaccination at the provincial border checkpoint. Otherwise we wouldn't be allowed entry.

Time to strip the "temporary" emergency powers from these Premiers.

Our local car club has been doing these cruise or drives instead of parking gatherings.We met another group to join together for the day and 75% of them were walking around at the beginning before we leave maskless.I bailed immediately.

My only wish (other than for everyone to get the vax), is that anti-vax people would at least wear a mask at indoor public places. Even if the masks "dont work", at least we would know who we need to maintain strict social distance guidelines with in shared spaces. It sounds horrible, but those of us who lived through the HIV epidemic in the 80s/90s know the importance of full disclosure. Just my opinion.

UK cases are down today - 15,810 vs 16,703 yesterday. I'm hoping we have peaked or are over the peak now for delta. Who knows, but at least cases are no longer growing exponentially. Meanwhile, 500,000+ people getting vaccinated daily, with 83.3% adults 1 dose and 60.9% both doses. Quietly optimistic...

I've seen several news articles over the last few days stating that the vast majority of COVID cases are unvaccinated people and 99%+ of the deaths are unvaccinated. There was an AP article yesterday I believe.

Wonder how they will spin it when a certain group of states start to have spikes?

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fcf43d9731c76c16e7354f5d5e187

In the 60s there was a TV show called The Invaders. The aliens were already here and they were up to no good. But only one guy knew who they were. And they were hiding in plain site. Their only identifier is they had a deformed pinkie finger. But at least it was better than what we are getting.

Exactly how I feel...quietly optimistic

I really hope that this strain doesn't spread to our friends in Europe, but sadly I think it will In the UK we thought we were over Covid, and then Delta hit. Whilst the UK is different in having a large Indian population, and being apparently incapable of properly closing its borders, nevertheless we know Covid spreads. It's what it does, especially Delta.

I'm saddened about that 30% anti-vax figure, why is that? Because Macron was very anti-AZ early on?

I agree that we need 90%+ vaccinated to have any chance of herd immunity, so if France doesn't achieve that then a third wave is inevitable. By contrast, in the UK only a few % are anti-vax, and already > 95% of over 50s have had at least one jab. So ultimately, in good old universal NHS style, we should achieve 95%+ of the adult population vaccinated, and soon. It's the classic race against time...