Absolutely fucking pathetic. 150 people break the rules for crowd size and 3 people who were not even at the wedding die because the idiots spread the shit around.

One of the attendees works for the local jail and now the jail has 70 cases to deal with.

People need to get a grip.

I really can't be stuffed replying but there's nothing on TV , so here we go .

You're right 99% of our 2nd wave came from 2 hotels . Hotel quarantine was a total fuck up.

So if you had hundreds of cases a day , you would just open up like everything is normal .

Yes we had people who didn't obey the rules and didn't respect stage 3 guide lines and spread the virus . That forced us to go into stage 4 and no I don't want to see that again ( I don't know why you would say that .)

Yes we can agree chopper is funny as .

We had mandatory mask wearing and in stage 3 Lockdown , for 3 weeks and numbers were still going up , would you wait till the numbers got to 1000-2000- 5000 a day before you made changes .

So if you have /had a mum and dad , you'd be happy to see them to be exposed to the coronavirus to see if they build up resistance

That woman wasn't heavily pregnant . She was 7 weeks pregnant and going for her first ultrasound , she didn't even have a baby bump . She wasn't making " kooky " protests online , she was trying to organise a mass gathering during a pandemic .
Don't make up stuff to make your argument sound more convincing .
As you said , if people followed the rules we wouldn't be in this situation , yet your advocating people gather in large numbers .
You're a good guy razor and I don't want to argue but obviously we have a difference of opinion , and that's ok , it would be boring if everyone thought the same
We have gone from 700 cases to around 40 today , the plan is working , we should try to stamp it out as much as possible while we can .
The government has said they will lift restrictions sooner if numbers are low enough .
We don't want to end up like jlm33 -France and have the whole thing blow up again .
PS - can you do a number of shorter posts , that makes it easier to respond to

Umm, if we had hundreds of cases a day? .... err, hang on, we Don't. . That is the entire point being made. If we did devolop hundreds of cases a day (somehow?) then of course restrictions and measures would come in to hold back a flood, but not quite what you've all got going on there which is simply ludicrous. Going for illusive and futile "elimination"?. Again?

I'll just say yep the fact viruses exist sux .... that's life .... up until the point you are not living.

Cottonballing and "cancel life" is a really bad idea.

On a good note, at least they're letting single occupants have 1 visitor, so partners can get together instead of solitary isolation.

" Health Minister Greg Hunt has taken a swipe at Victoria's COVID-19 restrictions, saying "isolation and lockdowns are what you do when everything else has failed". "

...

" Mr Hunt made the remarks during an interview with A Current Affair host Tracy Grimshaw in response to comments made by Germany's health minister that "lockdowns are no longer about the virus" and the World Health Organisation's view that testing is better than lockdown. "

https://9now.nine.com.au/a-current-affair/a-current-affair-coronavirus-greg-hunt-health-minister-victoria-lockdown-australia-vaccine-options-covid19/3d8c22b0-3989-45c7-8732-cf4d32a79af6

So Vic. Govt. policy is in contradiction to the view of the WHO. Pitty they couldn't contradict a different way, and utilise some of the supposedly "trial only" pre-existing medicine treatments.

... and today I learned ER admissions in the most affected areas are on an exponential growth
There was no miracle then.
We can't even blame politicians here. We're just lazy, weak-willed, disobedient and/or egoist.

PM me next time you come... assuming the epidemic is over / a (good) vaccine is available.
The first round of drinks will be on me.

Here schools have re-opened, the government is working hard to get people back in the office, we're 3 weeks behind Europe for cases and yet UK cases have already started an exponential increase and (again) no lessons are being learned. What could possibly go wrong?

Corporate lobbying is a big issue IMO (re-opening businesses and workplaces, a scheme to encourage going to restaurants etc), and the travel industry in particular. If only our politicians weren't corporate whores with no science background...

UK cases increasing exponentially, data from today (the graph shows a daily rate of 2k which should be 3k today..). Ref.:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
UK cases 07 Sept 2020 (resized).JPG

Maybe we could stop manifesting fear that would work.

The pressure to generate money/funds/ profits eventually outweighs the need to play safe. No money means you get hungry. You get hungry then you get irritable.

My city council is terrified of not being able to collect its property tax income if businesses are closed and therefore waxes hot and cold on masks or no masks, On-location school on online schooling. The city last week voted to allow high school sports to be played this season; Choosing to take its chances with COVID as opposed to no prop taxes coming in.

United Airlines announced that it is going to start flying to most, if not all, destinations in South America. it is going to target 40% capacity.

It is sad, but it seems everyone is becoming resigned that the virus is going to be here for awhile and nothing can really be done about it other than everyone masking up---which has not been happening.

I don't know where the saturation point is but eventually the governments have to quit printing money. When the money stops and starvation becomes a reality all kinds of corners start getting cut; To the point that people start marching with pitchforks and torches.

Check out the cool face mask my wife made me today. Found a old raiders patch in a drawer and she worked her magic. Fits nice and snug and no movement when I talk. Looking forward to going shopping tomorrow

20200907_151247.jpg

20200907_151507.jpg

Will do. I would like that quite a bit. I have a couple of really good friends in Paris. I’ve done face time with them quite a few times since this all started since I can’t see them in person.
We normally look on the pinmap to find a place to play at least a couple times while we’re there.
It’s normally pretty easy to find a bar with a couple classic 90s Bally Williams pins to play.

This article has alot of interesting graphs and analysis from the past few months of data. NSW could easily have been where Vic is right now if not for their vigilant testing and Contact Tracing. But they are not in Victorias pickle, because they have appropriate systems in place so they have no need to do "lockdown", they have not been under any second lockdown and have stamped out Numerous clusters with the same potential for mass outbreaks.

https://blog.aigroup.com.au/australias-second-wave-with-the-benefit-of-hindsight/

Covid_chart9 (resized).jpg

This shows missed analysis, where testing dropped significantly meaning missed cases.... the percentage of positive tests was getting higher but not showing in the "Number of Positive Cases" since there were alot fewer tests being conducted.

As can be seen in the next graph it barely shows up as a blip in May, when looking at positive test number.

Covid_chart6 (resized).jpg

Here the significant drop in number of tests, completing the sum of misleading "positive tests" numbers.

Covid_chart10 (resized).jpg

Test and Trace is a big part of control. Lockdown and Border closures this severe/damaging/restrictive are more in line with futile "elimination".

Test and trace is the dream -- so long as you've got new case numbers somewhat under control and commit to actually doing the testing and tracing (two steps that have seemed elusive in the US), that's absolutely the way to go. Lockdown is a last resort when you've got a sufficient number of cases that test and trace is no longer a reality.

Since Sturgis is still in the news, here’s an academic study of the predicted health and economic costs.

Ball park numbers. Rally predicted to cause at least 250,000 new infections and $12 billion in economic damage.

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

I saw that same report today. That’s really staggering. $12 billion in healthcare costs and 250,000 cases because some idiots denied reality and acted selfishly.

Not sure how accurate this study will prove to be It’s a projection based off the state estimates of attendance, which somehow shows little deviation from other years despite the epidemic. And last week I was reading about an estimated number of cases in Sturgis and tracked down secondary infections among returning attendees and contacts along their routes home, totaling about 300 this far. Only time will tell, but I’m skeptical.

But yes, you wouldn’t catch me dead there and it’s pretty irresponsible.

Just needs to be pointed out, simply not an entirely factual statment there, somewhat subjective whichever of the ways. Extreme and presumptuous. Opinion. Typical of many posts in here of course.

Mine too! Lol

I think the Sturgis Rally was just about the stupidest thing possible in the middle of a pandemic, but even I have a hard time buying the numbers in that report.

Here's an interesting graph on a relativley restriction free population such as Sweden/US vs a restricted population such as sth korea/Aust/JPN measured Covid deaths per mill. vs economic growth.
More deaths = worse economic performance
200902_2_AK (resized).jpg

here's your opportunity mate to gain notoriety against those know it all PHD research professors of economics at Bentley university. Read their 63 research paper and prepare your evidence and send it on. I’m sure they’d be thrilled to have the feedback

Was just reminding how some will tend to see subjective "statements" as if they are "facts". Taking words too literally... can be a cause for misunderstanding, too. Happens Much more than people care to admit.

"Reality" is a bit like "Facts", at times. Made up from thin air, to suit. Also reality and facts are both much less commonly known than many would like to pretend.

In the post in question, the narrow defined "cause" of, or reason for, 250000 cases is subjective. It is not actual fact, speculation with assumption. Interpretation, perhaps fair asessment or opinion, but not fact. That's english for you I suppose.

I digress... stay safe!

(:

Which part do you consider not factual? That the people attending Sturgis were idiots? That they were denying reality? That they were selfish?

Over 400,000 bikers attended this rally from across the nation, most of which did not wear a mask or practice any social distancing in the middle of a global pandemic that is costing American lives every day. Yeah, I'd say those statements are pretty accurate.

On the other hand, if you disagree with the numbers and conclusions of the study, please post your full rebuttal to their findings and the methodology you used to arrive at your alternate conclusions.

A fairly narrow assesment of course, black and white, a subjective aspect. Don't have to read the article for that to stand out, which was my context.

Of course it is not that simple. ...

Anyway, can't be talking the "P" or "R" subjects around here, in some ways unfortunate. Yet still fine, since it's just divisive cr@p anyways.

Did anybody look at the 63 pages? Their “activity” map shows only a high moderate level from southeast Wisconsin- the birthplace of Harley?! Suspect data. They also use an average case expense of $46k! It isn’t $12b in healthcare cost, they are estimating the value of functional loss from another German study using our dept. of trans. data but not respecting our conclusions. But if people aren’t working, we already LOST this money.. And how many of these people are retired anyway? How could we have even $46k in loss if 80% of cases are asymptomatic and maybe 95% return to work after 11 days? Let’s calculate economic damage from 100m people not working for 6 months..

If you look at the Safegraph sample charts on their site, there is a huge increase in foot traffic at Mexican restaurants during the same period. Hmmm Sturgis or too many people getting Margaritas and making bad Corona jokes? Actually, foot traffic at most types of restaurants, shopping, and industry- around the country!-was up during this period. Can you now attribute 20% of 1.9m cases in US- is this entire US or just cherry picked counties that they saw a rise in cases?- to Sturgis? Seems a stretch with everything in US going on at this time.

Sturgis wasn’t a great idea but it is amazing any news outlet picked up this “story”. It also noted that Sturgis did actually stress PPE and social distancing.

No, don’t own a motorcycle.

So the hard question are the BLM rioters as selfish as the Sturgis idiots i am sure they are spreading it just as much.

Just read this:
"The number of cases estimated in the study differs significantly from the number of cases tied to the rally reported by the South Dakota Department of Health. As of Tuesday, the state reported 124 cases among South Dakota residents who got sick after attending the rally.

The Associated Press as of last week identified 290 cases from 12 states tied to the rally."

From here:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/09/08/study-260-000-coronavirus-cases-likely-tied-sturgis-rally/5750587002/

I don’t know medical prices in America but I’d be willing to bet the avg hospital stay for one of the severe cases is 10 times the $46k number. If 10% of cases cost $500k then it skews the average for all. I’d be willing to bet some people have experienced hospital bills well over $500k. Some people have been hospital for weeks, I bet that’s not cheap in the USA.

That’s how averages work. One outlier skews the entire data.

Here’s another true fact. I know nothing about your finances but I can say without a doubt that you are closer to being a millionaire then Jeff bezos is. You might be poor without a cent to your name, and you’re still closer to a million then Jeff is. How does that work?

Couple of comments:

For better or worse they used sampling from cell phone data tracking and then attempted to take into account over/undersampling of regions/groups. This is how statistics is supposed to work. I am open to criticisms about how they corrected their dataset.

(Edited out this section on forward thinking. I thought the study was looking forward and predicting future cases. I was wrong.)

Per their own technique they tried to be conservative by not accounting for deaths. There are actuarial techniques to account for, on average, how much the life of a 10 yr old, 25 yr old, 50 yr old, 100 yr old are worth. They didn’t dive into that as best o can tell.

They did use the average covid hospital stay cost and the ratio of covid cases to hospitalizations in their calculations. healthcare in the states is pricey. Ventilator care is crazy expensive. Doesn’t take more than a few of those to tilt the average cost higher.

————————————————-

Don’t misunderstand me, I am not part of the study nor necessarily defending it. I am just trying to discuss it and clarify a few things.

Not to change the subject too much, but it looks like there is more bad news for the convalescent plasma treatment.

Conclusion: it didn’t help anyone in a statistically meaningful way.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.03.20187252v1.full.pdf

Yeah, we’re just going to disagree here. If you think a motorcycle rally is an essential activity in the middle of a pandemic...well I just don’t know what to say to that.

My statement has nothing to do with politics or religion. Taking 400,000 people from across the country, putting them together in a small town with almost no masking or mitigation protocols at all for several days and then dispersing those people back out across the country in the middle of a pandemic is the pinnacle of stupidity. It doesn’t matter if it’s a motorcycle rally or a love in to celebrate diversity. The results are the same.

That’s not politics or religion, that’s just an epidemiological fact.

This is how science works. Scientists study and publish and then other scientists (not CNN, Fox, SD Dept of Health and Tourism, or Pinsiders) critique the method and results. Over time the study gains or loses traction. People learn from what was right/wrong and the next study is likely better.

This study is definitely taking some hits from the science community from it's assumptions (they couldn't very well contact trace 400,000 people), but no one is dismissing it entirely. Every science related critique I have read on it agrees that it was indeed a super spreading event that has/will cause more sickness and death than would have occurred were it cancelled.

It is not a huge leap to think 400,000 people could cause 250,000 illnesses at a super spreading event. Hell, that might be conservative. Just look at this story of a 65 person indoor Maine wedding that took place Aug 7th. It has been contact traced to 146 illnesses and 3 deaths already. https://www.insider.com/maine-coronavirus-outbreak-linked-to-65-person-indoor-wedding-2020-8

Well yeah. Majority of people came from outside SD, so the SD health dept can’t be expected to accurately track all that. SD is seeing a spike in positivity. Again if you are where SD is at (around 20% positive tests), it means you are not managing the problem and basically have no idea how bad the spread is in the community. .

We do know from other super spreader events how this thing generally propagates.

States in general are doing a piss poor job at contact tracing even before Sturgis

An exception is Maine, which is doing a pretty good of contact tracing that wedding. Look at where they are at now something like 200 cases and counting tied back to that relatively small event.

Your variables in Covid spread are going to be the number of infected that attend the event, duration of the event, density of the crowd, mask usage, and indoor/outdoor activities. The demographics of the crowd will probably also affect how bad the outcome looks (you might have the same transmission rate but if there are a bunch of old men in the crowd, you're going to get more "detects" when they show up at the hospital). Covid doesn't care if you were peacefully protesting against social injustice, enduring a Smashmouth concert with your motorcycle bros, or looting a Burger King.

People dying to see Smashmouth may be one of the bigger tragedies of this entire pandemic.

I watched some of that Sturgis stuff on video. It mostly looked like a bunch old, fat baby boomers riding down main street while trying to still look cool.

3x at risk then... (men, old, fat)

"Old" is a relative term of course.
For Covid the people at high risk seem to be 65+ but the 50-65 age range is not immune either.
Men more exposed than women.
Co-morbidity factors such as diabetes and obesity make the outcome worse.

A full face motorcycle helmet with a built-in air filter would make a cool piece of Covid PPE.

Look at what this guy did with a fish bowl...

https://www.reddit.com/r/nextfuckinglevel/comments/in0dzz/this_guy_made_a_very_interesting_mask/

I want to build one with a heads up display like Iron Man has.

You're talking about most of pinside!!

Do you really think the risk is equivalent?

If I had to choose between spending an hour outside with mask at a BLM protest vs inside a Sturgis bar without a mask on Day 9 of the rally - I would think the protest held less risk.

I guess they were under the illusion that all that glitters is gold.

Anyone noticed how China is the winner in all this...? Fancy that. It has literally done better in terms of economic growth and lowest number of deaths than anywhere else in the world. And the Western powers are the worst affected. Again, fancy that.

Interesting how this was mentioned in the study and why we have to suspect the motives of the study. As we have seen in Milwaukee and Kenosha, BLM protests were many hours over many days with people coming from several areas that also involved large amounts of individuals from an ethnicity considered at a higher risk. Why did the study basically write off the protesters but internationally shame a bunch of bikers? It was a sad day for science, like the Al Gore days of climatology.
There was another study done by some conservative think tank saying their data was showing a direct correlation between harsh lockdowns and huge spikes when relaxed. Didn’t get much media- seems like some more cherry picked data.

We can’t even make bikers wear helmets in WI, but they have to wear masks? Crashing at over 60mph, maybe you don’t want any chance of survival. Their safety might not affect my survival, but it does add considerably to our shared healthcare burden. If a helmet infringes on individual liberties, how do you enforce a mask? They don’t have to wear helmets, but I have to endure their obnoxiously tuned exhausts? Where are my freedoms? Anybody follow the twitter storm with that Olympic volleyballer Walsh-Trainer or something? She is surprisingly eloquent, I’ve known a lot of volleyballers. I don’t agree with her, but I imagine she is only saying what possibly millions of others are feeling. This is a long haul..

All we need is Rick to come sort this Science stuff out and make everything better again! . Solved!

There you go with your "facts" again Lol

A few hundred or even thousand of reality in the hand, is worth 250,000 in the bush, hey. "That's a fact", well for some types of researchers it might be anyway. Oh hang on, the other +200,000 must be asymptomatic! .... derr, of course!. Sorry

Keep pushing your subjective info posts there matey. Good for you!.

Many epidemiological "facts" are based on politics... some of what we get certainly is, anyway. That is more factual than your misguided "250k fact" emotional based post comment that I quoted.

Ha Ha Ha

Can you imagine trying to walk anywhere for more than 500 feet outside on a 90 degree day, sun shining bright. There is a reason that bubble tops on 1950s experimental cars never saw the light of day.