Covid19 is called that because it started on 2019, not because there were 18 previous coronaviruses. There has never been a successful (human) coronavirus vaccine.

You are both correct - case fatality rate is around 5% worldwide.
But a large majority of infected people are not diagnosed because they suffer very mild symptoms, or are even unaware of being infected.

From a few places where systematic testing was implemented (say, for example, everyone within a given area) it seems the IFR (infected fatality rate) is 0.5 - 1%. The older the population, the higher the %.

So, overall, your chances of dying from Covid are less than 1% on average, but will be higher than that if aged 60+, much higher if 75+ or with co-morbidity factors (obesity, diabetes, ...). Also note that this % improves over time: hospitals are better prepared and some antiviral compounds show some efficacy. If only for that, it was worth not being among the first infected.

What is currently unknown is the % of people NOT dying from it who will experience long lasting detrimental effects.
I know personally one lady, aged 37, who still suffers from chronic fatigue more than four months after being infected. Not fun.

Maybe he is talking about the IFR (infection fatality rate) which in the case of covid the conventional wisdom is to divide the above by 10.

Also, with case loads exploding and deaths a lagging indicator, it isn’t very accurate to compare today’s total death to today’s total infection.

Covid 19 comes from 2019, as in the year. There are many more previous coronaviruses (spelling?), and none of them have an approved vaccine. Progress has been made, some of which is being built upon. There is a pretty interesting mini-series on Netflix that explains it in an easy to understand format. The third episode is a snoozefest, though.

Edit: 2019 has already been mentioned above while this was stuck in the moderation buffer.

Covid-19 is an acronym for

COrona VIrus Disease 2019

And you’re correct, we’ve never found a successful coronavirus vaccine.

At $15 plus a pop for an N95 mask, not everyone is able to afford that which is why they suggest face coverings of some kind. A cotton mask that's made from an old t-shirt and doubled up has an effectiveness of 70%'ish compared to 95% (N95). They do better than "little". When every one is wearing something it increases the percentage a bit. Throw in the 6-ft social distancing and you know the rest. Its a simple and basically free especially when 40% of people that have COVID are asymptomatic.

Long term effects are still potentially life changing as they are finding out it pretty much affects your entire body. Months after recovery people are still having issues breathing, rapid heart rate, fatigue and mental "fogginess". You still don't want to get it or spread it.

Racist why? Cause the sign had a dude with a man bun?

Expected Deaths
USA Infected Population vs. CFR
____ 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0%
10% 163,000 327,000 654,000 1,308,000
25% 408,000 817,000 1,635,000 3,270,000
50% 817,000 1,635,000 3,270,000 6,540,000
75% 1,226,000 2,453,000 4,905,000 9,810,000

Heard through my brother, of a family friend in NY, 34, who recovered at the end of April, from a milder, flu like battle with Covid.
May and June, he is fine. Now, he had trouble breathing over the weekend.
Xrays showed scarring, like a smoker, or hazardous worker. They are checking out all his organs now.
He believes there is heart damage too. He gets winded, and chest pain from stairs, and his family shares, he is like an 80 year old wheezing right now.

Sure , its rare, but it is happening.

We still dont know so much.

I would be just as happy to never catch this disease, regardless of the odds of survival or permanent injury.

Moving to an apartment twice the size this month in the same neighborhood. Since we are spending most our time at home why not have some room?

The nyc apartment market is softer than I’ve ever seen it. We are paying $2750 for a 1000 square foot apartment that would have gone for $3800 last year. No broker fee either which is a reversal of the norm (saved us another $3,000).

Look at this fucking palatial estate!!!

There are still people who don’t get it, but I think it’s fewer and fewer every day. This is the most dramatic disruption in America’s daily life since World War II. Its the biggest self-inflicted disaster in the history of this country, that’s for sure. We have failed our greatest test in generations, and in huge swaths of the country we continue to fail harder daily.

But hey at least I got a sweet new pad out of it.

This might help explain why covid attacks people differently.

It is rare——until it happens to you. All of the percentage predictions go out the window when it is you.

I guess the negative response to wearing masks isn't a new thing. This is newspaper clip circa 1918 during the pandemic that seems to push mask wearing as unhealthy.

dipXLt1 (resized).jpg

I did not notice it either at first glance. It says 'Chinese Coronavirus Plan' at the top.

Vaccine is a wild goose chase around the money-go-around, it will work great just like the one for AIDS. Try to Not get Rona. It's potentially Deadly and very Bad!. If you Do get symptoms like chest pain etc. get some steroids inhaled into ya Early!, or one of the other 'discredited' low risk low cost helpful treatments.

Be healthy. Wear a mask in tight situations if there is rona Anywhere remotely close.

That's it in half dozen sentences lol

Oh and don't travel to the USA or Victoria

Damn - that's a lot of apartment for $2750. Can they just put the price back to $3800 in twelve months or are you somehow protected from that?

The rate of death cannot take into account the undiagnosed persons without symptoms, which would naturally lower the rate. However, it is a mathematical fallacy to include people still sick and/or treating in the "closed cases" denominator. The people that are going to die tomorrow are counted as a sick number today. If you divide by the total number, including those currently sick, you are artificially deflating the death rate by including them into an equation as lived, when they very well could be counted on the dead.

That said, the death rate is more than 1% and less than 5%. But who the fuck cares? 1% is too many. 5% is too many. Any is too many. Wear your goddamned masks. We don't care if you don't think that you can't filter out every small micron. They are working, when we can get everyone to wear them. Every study says so. Quit being contrarians about something that has been scientifically proven to reduce spread and stop these peaks. Seriously. The shaming is going to get worse if you don't become good neighbors and citizens. You don't get to smoke in the car with the windows up and your kids in the backseat anymore. You don't get to lock your dog in a hot car anymore. And you don't get to walk into stores and busy public indoor places without masks anymore. Get used to it. We don't give a shit about your objections.

A box of N-95 3M masks cost 16 dollars.
I would like to see the scientific study of the 70% effective rate of a doubled t-shirt. Sounds like Horsesh%t.
These cheap thin blue "Surgical masks" are garbage too. The aerosolized breath just blasts out in a 360 degree pattern away from the mouth and nose. Then potentially infected air is breathed through the same leaks.
We might as well admit we are just jumping through regulatory hoops, going through the motions to appear to be doing the right thing. These home made rags are not a serious tool for fighting virus transmission.
A condom with a 30-70% effective rate is rejected as defective. The comfort from seeing one put on is illusory.

This guy never was tested. They just assume you are positive because you were by an infected person. More scamming...

https://www.wsmv.com/news/mt-juliet-man-says-even-with-no-test-he-s-informed-he-is-covid-19/article_f8cf60e6-c886-11ea-8ae0-4ffb48dc9a46.html

It makes sense to me that the rental market would be soft, but the housing market here has gone bonkers. Houses are selling within a week for 50k-100k over asking price. It seems that a lot of folks who are working from home now are feeling that same urge to spread out a bit into a bigger space.

Meanwhile I can only imagine the commercial real estate market is struggling. I'm a therapist and everyone I know is doing telehealth, which means for a lot of them their offices have become a useless expense that is getting dropped as soon as the lease runs out.

Covid has had a big impact on demand for urban real estate. Suburban prices shooting up while inner city dropping. Grab the deals while you can!

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/realestate/coronavirus-suburbs-real-estate.html

We’re all cool with, No shoes, No shirt No service. You can’t walk around drunk. Since the 90’s you can’t smoke everywhere you want. Suddenly your freedom is being taken away because you have to wear a mask inside public locations. Wtf.

It’s fucking rent stabilized/preferential rent too. With current trends they will be limited to 0-2 percent increases annually.

In 10 years someone will pay us $100k to leave this place

Nancy current working on her landlord to get a cash payout to leave HER current rent stabilized place downtown. They offered her $30k a year ago maybe that’s still in play.

I’m being generous with my landlord on MY rent stablaized. Not asking for cash just breaking the lease. I can’t imagine they’ll give me any trouble
I’m paying $1850 and my next door neighbor in identical apartment paying $2400. They’ll be thrilled to have me gone.

Where are you getting your masks? Many reputable locations are still in low supply and/or unavailable. 3M requires a bulk order. The best price I can find is around $15 at Office Depot. Home Depot is sold out but run $15 https://www.homedepot.com/b/Safety-Equipment-Respirator-Masks/N95/N-5yc1vZc25kZ1z195hh

I think your talking about the concept of risk reduction rather than absolute prevention. You don’t throw up your hands if you think a mask is not 100 percent effective. That’s silly. Nobody’s taking a cholesterol medicine because they’re going to prevent a heart attack 100 percent of the time, but you’re reducing your risk substantially.

How have other countries stemmed the spread then? For one they had a national plan. Secondly, their populous didn't constantly scrutinize their experts and resist wearing a face covering as much as Americans.

Some references although I don't think its going to make a dent.

1. Besser R, Fischhoff B; National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Rapid Expert Consultation on the Effectiveness of Fabric Masks for the COVID-19 Pandemic (April 8, 2020). www.nap.edu/read/25776/chapter/1. Published April 8, 2020. Accessed April 28, 2020.
2. Jayaraman S. Pandemic flu—textile solutions pilot: design and development of innovative medical masks [final technical report]. Atlanta, GA: Georgia Institute of Technology; 2012.
3. Davies A, Thompson K, Giri K, et al. Testing the efficacy of homemade masks: would they protect in an influenza pandemic? Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2013;7:413-418.
4. MacIntyre CR, Seale H, Dung TC, et al. A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers. BMJ Open. 2015;5:e006577.
5. Bae S, Kim MC, Kim JY, et al. Effectiveness of surgical and cotton masks in blocking SARS-CoV-2: a controlled comparison in 4 patients [published online ahead of print April 6, 2020]. Ann Intern Med. 2020.
6. Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center. Testing shows type of cloth used in homemade masks makes a difference, doctors say. https://newsroom.wakehealth.edu/News-Releases/2020/04/Testing-Shows-Type-of-Cloth-Used-in-Homemade-Masks-Makes-a-­Difference. Published April 2, 2020. Accessed April 28, 2020.

Why don't you believe in science? What is the research team in your laboratory conducting that contradicts every legitimate scientific source of information on viral control on this thing? Can we expect the study soon? Will it be peer reviewed by the Army Navy Store in West Va? Wear. A. Damned. Mask. And. Stop. Whining.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/21/health/covid-19-three-things-will-stop-it-wellness/index.html

And if you can get on base 30-70% of the time you are a hall of famer.

My point is it’s Apples and oranges comparing sperm vs viruses.

Viral load is a factor.

Washing your hands doesn’t eliminate 100% of all germs and viruses on your hands, so I guess we shouldn’t bother with that either?

There are going to be lots of lasting changes as a result of this pandemic. I attended my first zoom wedding this past weekend. People all over the country attending, in their cars, homes, etc. You name it. By far, it was the best wedding I've ever attended. No limits on attendees without it being astronomically expensive. When it was over I was already home. The cost? Nothing. That's the way to do a wedding!

My girl friend used to work in a hospital lab. She talked of some of the mistakes that were made in a lab. A lab is runs by humans. Humans make mistakes.

With the quantity of tests being done there is bound to be a few (pick your euphemism) blips, mistakes, or fuck ups--- like someone sticking the wrong label on the wrong container.

I don't know how it is for you Maple Leafers up north, but we have a Bill of Rights to go by.

Contrary to the opinion of all the shitty drivers' on the road, driving is a privilege earned by getting a driver's license. There is no such thing as a right to drive.

In the same vein, the wearing or not wearing a mask is not a right.

Here are the first 10 Amendments that constitute the Bill of Rights.

https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/bill-of-rights/what-does-it-say

The 1st and 10th amendments really have been getting a workout the last few months. But I don't recall Congress getting together and putting something together about mask wearing. With that, the 10th amendment says decisional responsibility goes to the states to which we can all wonder "how is that working for you?"

Quit being babies about it. Just wear a mask.

I feel what's changing especially in more tech friendly areas is that the idea of working from home will become the norm, or at a minimum a few times a week. This in turn means that living in the burbs or "far from work" won't matter anymore. Likewise other factors like self driving cars along with people realizing that being allowed to work from home means you can setup a home office which means lot of new tax deductions, etc, also makes homes a more attractive proposition even if they are further away from typical work areas. Result is home prices just keep going up.

Retail space on the other hand will be a bloodbath. I've always argued we have far too much retail space, but I figure those will get slowly converted over time to either pure housing, mixed housing/retail, or shipping depots for the big boys like Amazon.

My brother is the head Pulmonologist (lung specialist/surgeon) at a prestigious hospital so I'll pass along what he said about this....

Masks protect both the wearer and the people around them. Any cloth face covering over someones nose and mouth keeps it from becoming airborne. Even if they sneeze or cough, some might escape out the sides but a much smaller amount and with most masks almost none. These types of masks protect the other people walking around that grocery store and you as well, though more for others. They keep it from becoming airborne and given it's mostly spread through the air because it's a respiratory virus, this is key to slowing the spread.

Wearing an n95 or above protects both everyone in the store from you infecting them and is much better at protecting you from being infected by the nose breathers who don't cover their faces. My family and I all wear n95 or n99 masks anytime we are public places.

Now more on why a bandana may protect you and why the n95/n99 does....

Less known and just as important is the concept called the (or very similar to) infectious dose. It's the threshold amount of pathogen needed to cause disease, and it varies by species. 100,000 Staph aureus, or 100 E. coli O157 for spark notes example. Bacteria and viruses will behave differently because their disease cycles are hardly comparable, but the takeaway is the lower dose the host starts with, the better chance the host 1) recognizes the pathogen before it causes catastrophic damage and 2) eliminates the pathogen quickly.

Wearing a mask may not 100% eliminate the threat, but it will absolutely dampen the dosage. And during the viral shedding portion of the disease, it dramatically lowers the infectious spread if an asymptomatic or light case happens to be in the community.

This is exactly right. Again referencing what my brother (lung doc) has said in regards to this...

Sure, say 99% survive. That's great, right? That's over 3 million people dead.

What about the large percentage of people who seem to have a crazy range of long term health issues from this? They have seen strokes, heart, lung, liver, kidney issues. How do we take care of the large number of people that will have life long health issues when we don't provide health insurance in the states?

His advice to me was to avoid this shit as long as we can. The longer we avoid it, the more they know, the better treatments are available and thus your chances of getting through decrease greatly. Your chances of having life long issues increase greatly. The entire world is working on this problem and the chances are high that we will have some breakthroughs with vaccines never seen before, we have never had so many resources thrown a single disease in modern history.

They have seen a few people get reinfected, apparently they think our immunity only lasts weeks, it's not like the chicken pox. Also, they have identified several versions of the virus, it's mutating. They have no idea how it could mutate, meaning all the sudden it could start killing kids more often. There is just so much they don't know.

My friend was a very fit police officer in Michigan, spent almost 40 days on the ventilator and almost three months later he can barely walk across the room. Non smoker, healthy, Crossfit nut. He's on an oxygen tank.

I'm going to avoid this like the plague, this is a saying that should be done away with in America since it's clear Americans don't avoid plagues.

Sure there are mistakes, and there are intentional errors as well...

Sorry, are under the illusion you are someone I need to listen to or heed orders? You are mistaken. I don't like your tone, and if I was using a mask it wouldn't be one damned by God.
Posing with worthless rags just to be "Compliant" is not my method of operation. Use a proper N-95 or higher rated mask to avoid virus transmission or don't waste your time wearing one at all. The Science backs properly tested 3M N-95 masks and others from major manufacturers.
Until I see a proper Scientific test on a doubled t-shirt or cheaply made surgical mask this is the only way to go.
Sounds like you are the little whiner here. Qouting CNN? Fail. Racist attack by using West Virginia as a metaphor? Another fail. The question is why don't YOU believe in Science and use a proper mask?

But the reality is that most people don't even wear N95 masks properly. To be fully effective, they need to have a good seal. You can't have any facial hair, for example.

Not sure why we are still having a mask debate. This issue has been pretty well settled by the studies. Surgical masks work. Period. End of sentence. No further argument. You can look at any number of studies that show this conclusively. No, they aren't 100% effective but unless you plan to walk around in a fully isolated space suit nothing is going to be 100% effective. That's not an argument to not wear a mask.

People saying wearing a mask decreases their oxygen levels are full of it unless they have severe lung disease. Yes, your inhaled O2 percentage will decrease a bit because your exhaled air is mixing with your inhaled air more than it normally would. That's why God gave you something called pulmonary reserve. If you didn't have that, we would all pass out once we get a few thousand feet above sea level. It's not rocket science people.

I wonder how many of these anti-mask people would let our President remove their gallbladder. No? Well, then maybe you should listen to the doctors when it comes to advice on how to best prevent a viral illness. If you really think masks don't prevent transmission of particles then just tell the surgical team at your next surgery that they don't need to wear a mask while operating on you since they don't work anyway.

Today we learned that our county has mandated that school be online only through the end of September. I suspect the cancellation of fall football in Texas will be close behind. All the idiots who are railing against wearing a mask are the SAME idiots who will scream the loudest when their Friday Night Lights are taken away.

There's a correlation people! If you are stupid and don't do what needs to be done to control this virus, bad things will happen. If we all would have just done what was needed back in March, April, May and June we wouldn't be in the situation we are now.

Grow up, put on your big boy panties and wear your F-ing mask.

So she gets to live with you and $30k. My god, she the luckiest woman alive!!!

Is it contained yet ?

I would be too if I was your landlord.

Some gals have l the luck!

Needs to be a key post

How did the novel coronavirus escape the bio-(whatever) research facility, again?

This thing, or variants of, has been getting messed around with by humans all over the world, for eons. It was only a matter of time before a human caused a disaster, accidental or not.

No need to guess/blame/assume like china caused this. The suspicion just as easily points many other questionable directions, depending on the info you are privy to or have available to consider and discount.

Even though somehow a lot might come to learn that 3x3=6, and believe it .... simply believing it is not enough to overrule the fact that 3x3 does not equal 6.

Sometimes need to bring out nine mellons to see what adds up and what doesn't.

Now I have to wear a mask AND panties? Where will it end?

Do you yell at people wearing seatbelts because those don't prevent all traffic fatalities?