“Sweden literally gained nothing.”

https://theweek.com/speedreads/924238/sweden-literally-gained-nothing-from-staying-open-during-covid19-including-no-economic-gains

Shields up, play it safe folks. Virus sets the rules. Up to us how well we play the game.

if it changes the behavior (i.e. wear a mask, stay out of crowded areas) and helps come up with a unified national strategy, well... NJ cases are now on the rise partly because of bad behavior in other states. That is, residents of NJ traveled to states with fewer restrictions and brought it back home. Dumb for NJ residents doing it and dumb for states not having greater restrictions. There were quite a few people a few months ago bragging on FB how great their vacations were in Myrtle Beach and Florida, thank you!

Yes, but... with "only" total 106 deaths, it's harder to see
from https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2020/05/05/coronavirus-age-mortalite-departements-pays-suivez-l-evolution-de-l-epidemie-en-cartes-et-graphiques_6038751_4355770.html
(sorry, in French)

Capture d’écran 2020-07-08 à 17.39.54 (resized).png

This is encouraging since all we've seen recently is total number of cases, which is a pretty worthless number. What I feel is more relevant is the percentage of those tests that are positive.

I threw this together quick from https://covidtracking.com/ since they had a downloadable .csv.

This is data for the United States with the first 10 days excluded. The data the first 10 days was erratic and only a few tests were performed.

Percentage of Positive Tests (resized).JPG

So Norway maxed out at 16 deaths in a day and still locked the country down. Obviously, they responded quickly/decisively and now they have 0-2/day. I feel like there was a lesson that could have been applied here.......

Based in their population, this would roughly translate to a peak of 990 death/day at US population levels. US peak is almost 3 times that number and we just passed it again yesterday....4-5 months after all this craziness started.

I know zero about Norway's government, but based on the chart alone, I'd be willing to bet this was a nationwide mandate. When you have a country like the US, where people are (mostly) free to travel or go wherever they want at will but restrictions and guidelines for what is/isn't allowed are generally being pushed ”downhill” (federal to state, state to county, county to city), there isn't much way to stop spread. At some point, you reach a tipping point where hospitals have to decide to prioritize treating only the sickest individuals and where there is no way to use contact tracing to help mitigate spread because, in both cases, the resources are just spread too thin to get the job done. In early hit large cities, the only proven road to recovery has been leaders stepping up and putting the hammer down....end of story. It's about time that everyone just resigned themselves to being a nail for a while.

That's the truth. I remember when facebook caught on when I was in college. It originally required a school email address to join. I was reluctant to join, but it was useful to collaborate on projects with classmates, maintain those relationships, throw out party invites, etc. It was mostly used to supplement private messengers.

At some point it got pushed to the masses. Now every third post is my mother-in-law (or someone like her) sharing some picture of soemthing pretty benign that claims "facebook keeps removing this! I bet you don't have the guts to share!", or "99% of people can't find this pattern, if you are it proves you're a genius!". It reminds me of the early days of email and the chain mail that went with it.

People also use it to have direct dialogues with other people, but in public view. It's strange... it would be like screaming a conversation to your buddy in a crowded room. It this is a 2-way conversation, there's no reason to make it public.

Generalizing here, but there's a reason that young people are constantly abandoning apps for new versions of the same apps. The older generations just can't seem to use these things without passing around chain mail/politics.

Just to follow up, there is a really good article surrounding the evolution in testing in the most recent issue of The Analytical Scientist I had sitting on my desk. I found it online. Provided people are sick of listening to a pile of people pushing their own agenda with no scientific background.

Go to page 32.

https://theanalyticalscientist.com/fileadmin/tas/issues/TAS_0620_Issue.pdf#page=31&zoom=auto,-274,2

I think that chart has sample bias too. Don't forget we had a pretty nasty shortage of testing supplies early on, leading to only serious illness cases getting tested. That's changed as of late.

I'll rephrase it to make it more palatable.
------------------------------------

The President of Brazil, who has never acknowledged the seriousness of the Covid-19 that is currently plaguing the the world, and who refused to champion social distancing and mask wearing, now finds his self on the other side of the coin as he has now come down with the Covid-19 virus.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Curious what your opinion on CNN and MSNBC might be?

Interesting chart. Two observations:

First, I wonder if the rate of decline would be a more telling piece of information. If you look at that chart the percent positive has clearly leveled off in the last week to two weeks after being in decline before. With increased number of tests done, that means increased cases as well. In other words the decline we saw before has now disappeared which is a relative increase vs the trend. I’m not a statistician so not sure if I’m saying that in the best way or not.

Second, I think regional data is probably better to look at vs national data. Right now you have states like Texas, Florida and Arizona spiking while there are other states who have things more under control. Obviously national data is going to average out between the hot and cold states.

That's why I omitted the first 10 days in an attempt to mitigate systemic distortion.

Good article, thanks for posting it.

I found it interesting that they mention repeat PCR positive patients, a friend of mine recently went through that experience. He was sick back in February and asked his doc recently for the antibody test which came back positive. For some reason his doc then ordered a PCR even though he wasn’t symptomatic. That came back positive too so the patient had to quarantine for 14 days despite having no symptoms. Then his doc did another PCR which was positive again. Another quarantine.

Shows why it’s important to only use the PCR test for patients who you think are actively infected or recently exposed. This idea of patients who still have virus but aren’t infectious after they recover has been discussed in the literature over the past month or two.

Also cool idea about sampling wastewater, seems like it could provide good info for a city or county about what their relative viral load is in the population.

+1 to looking at regional data. Last I saw Arizona was at something like 20 plus percent testing positive. This is a tell tale sign of testing shortages / only testing people already exhibiting symptoms.

Also regionally there are massive testing lines and severe test shortages. Looking at you Phoenix.

Here in my corner of MN, tests are plentiful and percent positive is low but starting to rise again.

I'm trying to figure out how South Dakota and Nebraska are remaining relatively unscathed. Both of these states have a lot of meat packers.

Will do some digging tonight. At first blush I would guess the counties surrounding the plants (including Iowa counties) would be disproportionately bad and the rest of the state would be disproportionately good, resulting in an overall not so bad number.

in Nebraska overall they are at 10% positivity...which is not bad for USA, but shit compared to places that have this thing under control.

but but "MuH FrEeDoMs"

It’s easy to critique an opponent’s stance or preference when you don’t offer up your own.. and if you are just being critical without offering solutions then what good have you done?

Well, we all ready had our major meatpacking plant outbreak a couple months back. Supposedly the Smithfield plant (where the main outbreak in the state was) is now open again with enhanced safety and lots of testing. If it wasn't for that outbreak, our numbers would be a lot better, even though they're still pretty good compared to most places.

I think our complete lack of any major cities is probably a big help. Also related to that, our pop density is very low which also helps too I imagine. We closed a lot things pretty early on, but most places are now open with limited to no restrictions. Costco still makes you wear a mask of course, but most places don't, and most people aren't anymore when I go out. Still, all the major crowded-events have been cancelled, churches still aren't having in-person services, and people are being more cautious in general with keeping distance and not shaking hands and stuff. But plenty of people are still going to bars and stuff. My big concern is the rally that Pres. Trump held out west. I'm worried our numbers will spike from that, but I'm hoping not. Anyone heard about spikes from Tulsa or other rallys? It's been a couple weeks.

So IDK. I'm just glad we are doing okay for now. I see the orange and red closing in around us, it's starting to feel like we're an island!

If only there were media outlets other than Fox News and MSNBC available to us. Of course the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post are all still doing actual journalism, for those that are willing to read and can take their news without it being shouted at them.

I hesitate to even answer because I don't want to derail the thread and potentially be baited into an argument (which sounds like your intention). All the information you need was in my original post if you read between the lines. Any news organization that alters photos and facts is not news which is Fox. Bias is everywhere but an outside view of what's happening in our country would be BBC.

(Disregard if already posted)

https://kcrr.com/coronavirus-rhapsody-this-will-make-your-date-video/

Thank you for the local perspective. I have been having a heck of a time finding more recent info on you guys other than the typical data update.

As far as Tulsa, their numbers were climbing before the event, and they are still climbing. With the explosive nature this virus can have, certainly seems likely to have worsened the situation.

The local health department isn’t allowed to point fingers or name specific names, but boy do they ever strongly hint that the rally caused problems.

“In the past few days, we’ve seen almost 500 new cases, and we had several large events just over two weeks ago, so I guess we just connect the dots,” Dart said.

https://apnews.com/ad96548245e186382225818d8dc416eb?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter

I tend to watch CBS simply because it comes on after certain shows I like. I can't tell if they are partisan or not as they just give me straight news it seems.

For world news I watch both ABC with David Muir and CBS with Nora O' Donnell, because I like the way they get their points across.

"THE PANDEMIC IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING CATASTROPHIC AS CASES IN OVER 40 STATES SKYROCKET!!"

Yeah, that'll work.

I guess I'm not really sure why I prefer to watch CBS news.

k9k0wgmsko551 (resized).jpg

USA Today is even handed, and BBC and PBS are usually unbiased.

One benefit of the nightly news, they get their half hour which is generally enough for the big stories (plus a cat fashion show) and that’s that. Cable news has 24 hours to fill, so the same stories must expand to fill all of that time, with predictable results.

Utah hit a new high today 722 new cases and 7 deaths.

In local right here news, I am still staying put as much as I can, and I wear a mask if I do have to go out.

And this is working great!

Last year I had to go to the doctor a few times, the worst was flu-like last October.

This year since I have been careful, I have never had any kind of sickness.

(saving me a ton of money also not eating out, or going to the beach, or any kind of travel).

Summer camps close after Covid-19 outbreaks among campers and staff

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/us/missouri-arkansas-summer-camp-covid-19-trnd/index.html

The scramble is on to get ready for school. This summer camp biz does not bode well.

This, times 1000. I remember growing up in the 70’s, with no news channels, just the 1 hour of nightly news on the big 3. If you were serious about politics or world events, you read a book or a newspaper. I was a kid/teen at the time, so of course I wasn’t into news then. It just seems like news and politics have an outsized presence in our lives now. I would like more cats, more music, more film, and less news. Please.

I did a road trip through the mountain west and northwest last week and was surprised at how little mask wearing we saw in many places (Montana especially, but Utah and Idaho too). A whole lot of older folks not wearing them, and coming right up and interacting with others as well. Definitely a different approach than I’m used to in Denver. Of course it’s only a risk if you’re interacting with others that have the virus so I’ll hope the best for everyone we saw, but it definitely made me cringe.

Can we talk about what may be happening in your state with regard to school openings, Moderators?

What is being said by you?

Social distancing on School Buses, would require 3x more buses in some areas.
Classroom Distancing needs more teachers or staggered classes, with some home teaching?

I dont have any answers, I know in Orange County, there is no consensus.
Basically, from family involved its simply a mess.

In France we have some evidence that primary schools contributed little to the early stages of the pandemic. It seems young children (<11 yr) are not good propagators of the virus. In fact, the rare cases of Covid contamination traced back to these schools seem to rather involve teacher-teacher contamination.
So reopening these schools or kindergarten may have little effect on the spreading of Covid-19 - as long as parents and teachers respect social distancing.

Situation may be different for junior high schools, high schools and universities.

That has been the experience here. Early schools only real risk seems to be with Teachers/staff.

We made physical distancing a null and void for these early childhood schools. Stacked 'em in there. Been no worries mate.

What cracks me up when they talk about schools is how much they are worried how parents don't know what they are going to do if the kids dont get back in school because they've got to have someone watch the kids while they go to work.

The last time I checked school was not for babysitting kids. People were bitching at our governor and saying "he needs to figure out something so we can go back to work". I'm like are you F'ing kidding me dipshit? Your kids are YOUR problem, not the governments! So many entitled people in this world that its disgusting.

I feel like a bobble head lately. Shaking my head constantly.

I watched the kid across the street yesterday pull up on his bike. Takes a swig of a coca cola can and holds it out. Another kid pulls up and grabs it and takes a swig. Usually this wouldn't have even registered but in these times it sure did. On one hand I like that kids are doing the same thing today me and my friends were doing 35 years ago but on the other, wtf parents? Maybe its time to teach little johnny some new rules.

People in my small town don't give a shit. I've seen ONE, not exaggerating only one person wear a mask into the store since this shit started. Can't count the number of times of heard "well, it isn't really here yet so I'm not really worried about it" This attitude scares me the most. They also reopened the senior home to visitors this week despite the fact that numbers are starting to climb again in Saskatchewan.

In the Netherlands the (junior) high schools will open in August 'almost as usual'. Children (up to 18 / 19) are allowed to get close to each other, but need to keep distance towards teachers. No idea where that will lead to Corona-wise. I do think it'll be hard to keep distance to my students, for apart from teaching in front of the class, I need to see what they're doing on their computers to be able to help them, so it'll not be easy to keep my distance, for helping / teaching is what I'm there for.

Primary schools have been open since the 8th of June.
High schools have been open as well, but only with a part of the students so the social distancing rules could be applied, which worked 'kind of' towards teachers, but definitely not all of the time. I'm to blame as well: I do try to keep distance, but it's hard to do so in a classroom and when answering questions regarding their work.

I'm hoping reopening high schools on a large scale won't effect the spread of the virus too much.

Yum , yellow cake

IMG_20200709_191251 (resized).jpg

That is a very tidy set! ...

Where you been? Schools have been de facto baby sitters for the last 30 years.

Single moms. Single dads. Some schools open the doors way early so kids have place to stay since mom or dad have to be at work before school starts.

When I was growing up we used to walk to school. But with the stories of kids getting kidnapped and killed they don’t walk to school anymore.

So schools have moved to accommodate working parents.

I think I figured it out. Maybe you just don’t have compassion for other people. Do you believe in a social contract, or is it all about you?

Use some common sense. Who watches kids when the parents are at work, schools are closed, camps are closed, daycare is closed. That’s right, no one. So the parents miss work to look after their kids. Sending your child to get an education is not entitlement, it’s preparation for the next generation

Let's say schools don't open. Dipshit's little problems now need to go to daycare so that dipshit can go to work and get the economy rolling again, or maybe just buy some groceries. All the daycare was already full pre-virus, cost $1000 a month, and now they have to deal with the virus as well. I don't think that will make availability better or less expensive.

I'm grateful that my wife is able to care for my son while I'm working. Many of my neighbors are scrambling to find "tutors" or at least sitters to supervise their children during "distance" learning this fall. It's certainly a seller's market.

In our county, we have until July 15 to decide between two school options. Once we decide, we're locked in for the first semester.
1. Two days of in-person learning with like 11 spread out students per classroom. Two days of unsupervised distance learning. One day of what I think amounts to the schools scrambling to figure out what they need to change on the fly.
2. Four days of distance learning, with about 70% of it "supervised". Of course, that just means a teacher is on the other end of the internet link. You still have to have an adult in the house. Oh, and that one day of scrambling as well.

The county is providing a Chromebook for every student. My wife is buying a desk and likely resigning from her part-time job. I'm blessed to be in a position to do this. The majority of people won't be, I venture.

In regards to the schools here in the USA....it doesn’t inspire confidence when the argument from the powers that be is that “there is no evidence the kids are transmission vectors” and then under questioning they admit they haven’t really been testing the kids or pursuing that hypothesis.

Basically there is no evidence either way because they aren’t looking for any.

See no evil, hear no evil is not a sound pandemic response.

Me too but at times it feels like Groundhog day.

Speaking of testing, came across this article that does a good job of explaining why no, we are not doing remotely enough testing.

The TL:DR version is that as infections rise, you need to do more and more testing in order to get a handle on the size of your epidemic. So while it may be true that we have done more total tests than our peers, we also have a far larger epidemic, one that far exceeds our current testing regime at a national level. Your mileage may vary locally.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/america-is-testing-for-covid-19-more-than-ever-and-it-still-isnt-enough/

First day of the six week lockdown and I have to say I'm loving it , got home in half the time . Just feel for the sorry for all the businesses that have to close .

For our family, we are lucky in a sense that my wife has a good job, because mine has gone poof. Less lucky in that she has to deal with covid patients. Our governor decides at the end of the month what school looks like in the fall. Given what we know now, and unless new information is discovered, I am not putting my kids in a classroom. So yeah, now we are a single income household.

Most folks aren’t so lucky to be able to cope with having a large portion of their income evaporate overnight for a 12+ month extended period.

My wife’s nurse practitioner has a wife who is also a nurse. Three kids. Their kids are in school or daycare. Daycare has closed. School is who knows. Net net, that means one has to quit their job. Pretty big hit for them.

The whole argument of “well they shouldn’t have had the kids then” or “take some responsibility and plan for being kicked in the teeth you whiny dipshits” is a bit callous to say the least.

Me too. Had my annual horrible cold / flu / whatever in October and healthy as a horse since. I may move into a plastic bubble it’s nice not getting sick 5 times a year.