(Topic ID: 264520)
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Rockwall, TX
Who on earth could have seen this coming?
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-spreading-faster-la-straining-002028435.html
Quoted from Irishbastard:Our Governor has daily TV briefings, telling us to wear a mask, social distance, keep a journal for contact tracing etc. Our tourist city, Newport RI requires you to wear a mask everywhere, even outside or $100 fine. You can't even have over 10 people attend a funeral.
Here is our Governor last night at a "protest", past curfew. Guess the rules don't apply to all.
[quoted image]
Omg. Pure brilliance.
They are ready to start opening back up the bars in So Cal among other things. And some other states are still seeing cases spike.
Ya know, when Gov. Newsom shut the state down, it seemed like a heroic move. And it was. But it didn't take but a few weeks for his rhetoric to start saying the state is running out of money.
What I want too know is what happens if a major second wave hits in the next couple months and health care facilities across the country get overrun?
Quoted from o-din:What I want too know is what happens if a major second wave hits in the next couple months and health care facilities across the country get overrun?
If a second wave happens, I fear that it could be far worse than the first wave because a good percentage of the US population will be even more defiant of the safety protocols than they were before. These people have been lulled into a false sense of security, and they truly believe this whole thing is some sort of bullshit conspiracy. If it gets so bad that municipalities are forced to enact stay at home orders again, I'm guessing a ton of people will simply ignore those orders. If we don't have some way better treatments and therapeutics by then, we're basically f***ed.
Quoted from o-din:They are ready to start opening back up the bars in So Cal among other things. And some other states are still seeing cases spike.
Ya know, when Gov. Newsom shut the state down, it seemed like a heroic move. And it was. But it didn't take but a few weeks for his rhetoric to start saying the state is running out of money.
What I want too know is what happens if a major second wave hits in the next couple months and health care facilities across the country get overrun?
If/when it happens we deal it by ignorance and partisanship as usual. Why should science get in the way of my opinion? If I spend enough time I will find an opinion of someone who has a credential and I can feel better. The internet is awesome. I can usually find an opinion that fits my narrative of what I think. Which makes me awesome.
An example:
During the shutdown, the major hospital networks in Arizona were required to build out to 125% surge ICU capacity. Regular beds were significantly increased too. The shutdown gave them time to do this.
But then AZ opened up. As of Friday, one of these in Maricopa county had exceeded 100% and was in the surge capacity. Case rate is still increasing and hospitalizations lag, so they expect to be maxed out soon.
Not looking good.
Quoted from PantherCityPins:I saw a notification today that The Lancet has retracted the article that found increased harm to COVID patients on Hydroxychloroquine. The retraction stated that The Lancet was made aware of some possible issues with the data and asked the researchers to provide the raw data for review. The statisical analysis company, Surgisphere, apparently refused, citing client confidentiality. This caused The Lancet to retract the article.
The whole thing is very odd.
Quoted from jlm33:By 1 June Covid-19 had prompted more than 42,700 academic papers and 3,100 clinical trials...
https://researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-world-2020-6-covid-19-publications-mirror-virus-s-spread-across-world/
... unfortunately, not all of these papers are good.
We are witnessing a diarrhea of hastily written papers with questionable protocols and lack of controls.
Even worse are some "preprints" published in open archives before peer review.
No wonder this is confusing.
Like it or not, please consider that politics is a part of the scientific community in the form of human nature. People with notable credentials can have a bias, ignorance, ego or any human flaw that we all can suffer from. Its most notable in the news media but its really at all levels of life.
"Question Authority" is an all time favorite expression of mine and it goes way beyond my original narrow interpretation.
It's all over the news the second wave is coming. And again, the only parallel I have to draw from is the second wave in 1918. Where people's response to the first wave is very similar to what is happening now.
If history does repeat itself, perhaps in 100 years they can learn from this one? It's tough when you have so many people out of work waiting in lines just to get food for their families or trying to keep a roof over their heads. But pandemics don't care about that. They have their own rules.
When it comes down to your life, or money, since no one works for free, in the end money will always win.
Got 6 months worth of food stashed away? When your food stash is depleted, you have to go out into the cold cruel world. Or stay home and die by starvation.
In the last pandemic, the USA had a lot less deaths relatively speaking than the rest of the world. Action was taken in many places and it helped. Still more than half a million vs. the 50 to 100 million worldwide.
And, to put it in perspective, the first wave killed 3-5 million, the second wave near 50 million.
How will those numbers look and how will we look back on this one where millions took to marching in the streets right in the middle of it if there is an even more deadly second wave?
I think I'll go back to working on my Jeep now.
I have not put any of this stuff up for awhile because people are getting tired of it. The charts have been changed.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
This is new daily cases and daily deaths world wide. New cases keep trending up while the daily deaths look like the hospitals are getting somewhat better in controlling the deaths.
Screen Shot 2020-06-06 at 12.47.47 PM (resized).png
Here is the U.S. New cases, instead of trending down, are instead trending sideways.
Screen Shot 2020-06-06 at 12.48.22 PM (resized).png
After a few weeks it can be seen that daily deaths have peaked. Nobody knows what this will look like 2 weeks from now. If this chart keeps trending down maybe we will be OK. If it turns back up...
Villejuif
Quoted from cottonm4:New cases keep trending up while the daily deaths look like the hospitals look like they are getting somewhat better in controlling the deaths.
Possibly. Although I have a different (non-exclusive) explanation: now that the worst is behind us and testing capacity has increased, facilities start testing asymptomatic people rather than sick people. These new cases may correspond to individuals who would never experience severe symptoms... or none at all.
We also have yet to see the result of all the protests and reopenings that just happened over the last couple weeks. In a couple weeks we will know much more.
Quoted from cottonm4:New cases keep trending up while the daily deaths look like the hospitals look like they are getting somewhat better in controlling the deaths.
There have been more deaths worldwide over the last four days than any four day period since the middle of May.
Veteran here. One thing I noticed while I was in was that there were a lot of people getting sick the week after mandatory annual CBRN training... gas mask familiarization training. The stuff irritates your eyes and throat. Some of the areas with biggest spreads have been in things like choirs and meat packing plants with lots of people with irritated throats in close proximity. I think these riots are going to result with a lot of really sick people that get huge doses of COVID all at once with irritated throats from yelling and tear gas. Give it another week or 2 and see what happens. I live 5 minutes from Prince George County Maryland. It is the richest predominantly African American County in the country and borders D.C. People are heading from there into D.C. to protest. I see protestors on my way to and from work. See if there is a huge spike there in the next 2 weeks. That is your test case. As of today the infection rate there is 1.8%.
Quoted from jamesmc:If/when it happens we deal it by ignorance and partisanship as usual. Why should science get in the way of my opinion? If I spend enough time I will find an opinion of someone who has a credential and I can feel better. The internet is awesome. I can usually find an opinion that fits my narrative of what I think. Which makes me awesome.
The big problems are both from people that only use one news source as they most obviously tend to have bizarre views on things, but also people that rely on recommended videos from places like Youtube, etc, because those places are programmed to feed you more videos based on what you watch which further fuels whatever incorrect narrative people are ranting on about. You have to make sure you get multiple views from multiple sources, otherwise you are basically going to be misinformed.
Aside from that, Vegas is open again:
https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/1269169419998990336
I like to go to that particular hotel to film sometimes but with what seems like no masks on anyone in that video and no social distancing, I think I'll wait a few months and see what data comes from the Vegas experiment before I venture back.
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:Veteran here. One thing I noticed while I was in was that there were a lot of people getting sick the week after mandatory annual CBRN training... gas mask familiarization training. The stuff irritates your eyes and throat. Some of the areas with biggest spreads have been in things like choirs and meat packing plants with lots of people with irritated throats in close proximity. I think these riots are going to result with a lot of really sick people that get huge doses of COVID all at once with irritated throats from yelling and tear gas. Give it another week or 2 and see what happens. I live 5 minutes from Prince George County Maryland. It is the richest predominantly African American County in the country and borders D.C. People are heading from there into D.C. to protest. I see protestors on my way to and from work. See if there is a huge spike there in the next 2 weeks. That is your test case. As of today the infection rate there is 1.8%.
https://infection2020.com/#
There was a protest march here last weekend. If it not had been for the COVID-19 I would have gone and marched, but I am not interested in being a possible statistic.
Agreed. The way the tear gasses mess up your mucus membranes AND cause hacking/snotting/touching-of-the-face can’t be good.
Quoted from o-din:Who on earth could have seen this coming?
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-spreading-faster-la-straining-002028435.html
Should I stay home and be safe or go out and shake fists and beat up people, looks like the the latter won. . They'll never learn. 
Quoted from o-din:It's all over the news the second wave is coming.
The first wave hasnt got here yet.
Quoted from Utesichiban:... I didn't discount because it came from FOX News, though. Rather because it is an anecdotal opinion of a handful of docs in a select geographical area and not based on any hard scientific facts yet.
I would. The other reasons to distrust this supposed info as being correct are just frosting on the cake.
Mohammed "Baghdad Bob" Saeed al-Sahaf, Saddam Hussein's Minister of Information, would fit right in at our very own state run TV network.
I wonder if frequent flu vaccinations make people more vulnerable to the harsher effects of this virus. Like the second wave in the last one. Where the new mutated strain tricked many of the new host's immune systems into fighting something else it had recently been exposed to. That's what made it so deadly.
New cases by region from the COVID-19 tracking project. To me, some regions have had a first wave, but others look more like storm surge + tide rolling in (i.e. the first wave ain’t over).
Also note per the project:
“While the spike in the midwest is an artifact of that Michigan reporting change, the south, southwest, and west trends are now well established.”
My comment:
Minnesota has changed how they report top line numbers too. They changed from reporting people tested to reporting number of tests given. Doesn’t have an effect on the charts below, but just goes to show how these data aggregators have to struggle with the shifting quality of the data from (at least) 50 different data streams.
1015D739-6526-402A-80D2-443349BA7096.jpegQuoted from o-din:I wonder if frequent flu vaccinations make people more vulnerable to the harsher effects of this virus. Like the second wave in the last one. Where the new mutated strain tricked many of the new host's immune systems into fighting something else it had recently been exposed to. That's what made it so deadly.
No evidence to support your theory. In fact preliminary evidence from Italy suggests those who had flu vaccination did a little better with coronavirus vs those who did not. There was no evidence of harm.
Attended a funeral yesterday. Maybe 1/3 of those in attendance taking precautions (more than I expected). You still have people oblivious or just don't care. If I've got a mask on, don't get face to face or try to hug me. At the covered outdoor luncheon, they had servers for the buffet, but none were wearing masks. It was hot and humid as hell, so they've got big ass fans blowing straight across these rows of end to end tables. Thankfully, I don't recall anyone obviously sick, though I know that doesn't really mean anything. We'll see in a week or two.
Quoted from PantherCityPins:No evidence to support your theory.
It's not really a theory to me, just a curiosity.
And there's never going to be any evidence to support that as a theory as long as there are those that would push others get those flu vaccinations.
Just like mercury fillings. Can you imagine what would happen if they were to finally admit that that mercury isn't really good for you and can cause illness?
Quoted from PantherCityPins:In fact preliminary evidence from Italy suggests those who had flu vaccination did a little better with coronavirus vs those who did not. There was no evidence of harm.
And this virus is yet to mutate into a form like the second wave in 1918 that killed a bunch of healthy people in their 20s because they had had a different flu a few years earlier and that's what their immune systems were trying to fight. Or at least we haven't been told that yet. From what I hear this virus so far can just make immune systems go into overdrive and fight the host's own organs until they are critical.
Quoted from o-din:I wonder if frequent flu vaccinations make people more vulnerable to the harsher effects of this virus. Like the second wave in the last one. Where the new mutated strain tricked many of the new host's immune systems into fighting something else it had recently been exposed to. That's what made it so deadly.
I would say yes. Too much washy and needle as well as all the other antibiotics that are pumped into the human body. 
Quoted from Oaken:New cases by region from the COVID-19 tracking project. To me, some regions have had a first wave, but others look more like storm surge + tide rolling in (i.e. the first wave ain’t over).
Also note per the project:
“While the spike in the midwest is an artifact of that Michigan reporting change, the south, southwest, and west trends are now well established.”
My comment:
Minnesota has changed how they report top line numbers too. They changed from reporting people tested to reporting number of tests given. Doesn’t have an effect on the charts below, but just goes to show how these data aggregators have to struggle with the shifting quality of the data from (at least) 50 different data streams. [quoted image]
Note New England and Mid Atlantic are the only regions that are " trending down" ( way overused phrase). Unfortunately, this was the litmus that was applied across the country.
Until a vaccine or cure is found, nothing changes....how can Brazil possibly be going crazy when the virus doesn't like heat? A joke.
This will effect the very sick and the very stupid first, then everyone else falls in line.
Pick a graph or news channel that supports whatever you believe...this is getting worse before it gets better. How bad? I have no clue...
Quoted from PantherCityPins:I saw a notification today that The Lancet has retracted the article that found increased harm to COVID patients on Hydroxychloroquine. The retraction stated that The Lancet was made aware of some possible issues with the data and asked the researchers to provide the raw data for review. The statisical analysis company, Surgisphere, apparently refused, citing client confidentiality. This caused The Lancet to retract the article.
The whole thing is very odd.
Quoted from jlm33:By 1 June Covid-19 had prompted more than 42,700 academic papers and 3,100 clinical trials...
https://researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-world-2020-6-covid-19-publications-mirror-virus-s-spread-across-world/
... unfortunately, not all of these papers are good.
We are witnessing a diarrhea of hastily written papers with questionable protocols and lack of controls.
Even worse are some "preprints" published in open archives before peer review.
No wonder this is confusing.
A day ago I responded to both of these comments with my usual, hey look at me, I have a thought, bullshit. #15207
But I neglected to thank both of them for coming back and correcting/updating the record with new information. Both of you men are stand up guys in doing so and I appreciate your efforts.
Sorry if my original comment seemed ungrateful.
Welp, shit just got (more) personal. My wife’s cousin just died from it. Early 30s, no pre-existing conditions. The cousin’s dad is still in the ICU with it. The current thinking is that he caught it at a funeral and the cousin caught it when they were taking care of the dad.
Wife is currently starting the argument with her parents about how they shouldn’t go to the funeral, but
1) they are stubborn
2) they ain’t afraid of no bug
3) funerals are big freaking deals and go on for days.
I think it’s time to bring the kids downstairs and play some pinball so that they can’t hear the choice words my wife is probably going to let loose any second now.
Quoted from Oaken:Welp, shit just got (more) personal. My wife’s cousin just died from it. Early 30s, no pre-existing conditions. The cousin’s dad is still in the ICU with it. The current thinking is that he caught it at a funeral and the cousin caught it when they were taking care of the dad.
Wife is currently starting the argument with her parents about how they shouldn’t go to the funeral, but
1) they are stubborn
2) they ain’t afraid of no bug
3) funerals are big freaking deals and go on for days.
I think it’s time to bring the kids downstairs and play some pinball so that they can’t hear the choice words my wife is probably going to let loose any second now.
Sorry to hear Oaken about all of this. I hope things get better for your family.
Update from New Zealand. No known cases in the country (all recovered) and all restrictions (except for closed borders) have been lifted!
Quoted from o-din:How will those numbers look and how will we look back on this one where millions took to marching in the streets right in the middle of it if there is an even more deadly second wave?
I wonder how high risk protesting outside, wearing masks with some social distancing actually is. I mean, I'm sure it's not great, I can't join the local protests because my partner has cystic fibrosis and is high risk, but it's outside and most people are wearing masks. From most of the studies I've read, the real risk is being inside breathing the same air as someone carrying it for more than an hour. I'd have to think being at work, eating dinner in a restaurant or sitting in a bar for a few hours would be higher risk both from the air and hard surfaces.
Quoted from Oaken:Welp, shit just got (more) personal. My wife’s cousin just died from it. Early 30s, no pre-existing conditions. The cousin’s dad is still in the ICU with it. The current thinking is that he caught it at a funeral and the cousin caught it when they were taking care of the dad.
Wife is currently starting the argument with her parents about how they shouldn’t go to the funeral, but
1) they are stubborn
2) they ain’t afraid of no bug
3) funerals are big freaking deals and go on for days.
I think it’s time to bring the kids downstairs and play some pinball so that they can’t hear the choice words my wife is probably going to let loose any second now.
Extending my sympathies. Good luck!
Quoted from nwpinball:I wonder how high risk protesting outside, wearing masks with some social distancing actually is.
As we watched 20,000 people pack the streets of Hollywood and there were more fights in the protests in HB (two groups protesting clashed, one black lives matter, and one HB matters), a few different schools of thought came to mind.
1 -This will send the pandemic to another level.
2- These are mostly healthy people and all the sick people stayed home.
3. America is smart, because if a second wave hits, it will do all it's damage at once and be over fast.
3- It takes a special host, and one of these might be them, for the virus to mutate.
And hats off to NASCAR, for putting on another great race today.
We will all be exposed, sooner or later. Young people I know have weighed the risks and realized they will lose everything if they do not work. I have supported this stance and resort back to stoicism, a faith in the afterlife and good practices in Public places.
I would like to see a study on the infection/death rate of Monks in various parts of the World during famous past outbreaks of various plagues.
Fortunate to live in a place where my lifestyle really hasn't changed all that much during this Event..I feel for those in Cities. Yeah,I know, You don't need my sympathy and Cities are great. I grew up in a decent sized City (Greensboro) and always wanted to get out of it as fast as possible.
They say the South including NC is rising in cases (what is a case?) but nobody I know knows anyone who has died from this. Still.
I hope that stays the same.
In the meantime everyone is watching to see if there will be an outbreak from the conflagration of people recently gathered,and further gathering.
The next week will tell the story.
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