(Topic ID: 264520)

The official Coronavirus containment thread

By Daditude

2 years ago


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#101 2 years ago

Not sure we'll see much decent containment until domestic air travel is shut down or limited to no unnecessary travel. Where I'm at everyone went on spring break like it was nothing - flew to Hawaii, California, Mexico, Peru - and they'll be coming back soon. Kids can't go to school for the foreseeable future but it's OK to fly all over the country?

#102 2 years ago
Quoted from RWH:

it won't work, it's too small both geographically and population wise

Geography has nothing to do with it. Korea drafted private companies 5 weeks before us to ramp up test kit production...that’s just 1 example

#103 2 years ago
Quoted from wolfemaaan:

Here’s what a clear copy looks like.

Thanks for the information. It is interesting (although note that the Death toll estimates for the 1919 flu vary - providing a range rather than a precise value would have been better).

But... there is a small problem here.

This chart uses a small font for a critical information: "On-going".
It should be "ONGOING" in uppercase / bold / underlined characters.
The same chart plotted at the beginning of any pandemic would make it look minor...

Here is another graphic (sorry it's in French, Etats-Unis stands for USA).
Exponentials are nasty. Really.
Results may be a bit skewed between countries depending on kit availability - which can also change with time. Figures for Iran are probably inaccurate - not enough tests, people staying and dying at home, etc.

The one country that seems to have broken the exponential growth curse is South Korea ("Corée du Sud").
Capture d’écran 2020-03-20 à 14.55.14 (resized).png

#104 2 years ago

California officially shut down and 40 million ordered to stay home/inside

#105 2 years ago

Second that in Maryland. I drive by my Giant on the way to work and its packed even at 7AM. People are panic buying all the Cleaners, TP and over the counter meds, feminine products blah blah.

Most of the area works in the DoD so telework is impossible. Were working 50/50 where half the work force works a week then is off. Some companies can work more that 8 hours to make up some of the time others cant. If you weren't worried about contracting the virus your worried about paying the mortgage and bills with only half a paycheck. We are lucky though. Some people are just getting laid off.

Quoted from sataneatscheese:

I am writing you this from Maryland. I realize it has not hit everywhere yet, but it likely will. Even the federal government is starting to shut down over this. I work in an area where telework is not/will not ever be practical. Even so, the government sent home all employees that meet any of the following conditions on paid leave… until June:
Over 60
Pregnant
Compromised Immuse System
Diabetes
Hypertension
Cancer
Chronic Respiratory Disease
Cardiovascular Disease
I would strongly suggest that if you meet any of these conditions you stay home until this blows over. Even if you don’t meet these conditions, it is a good idea to cut down on human contact as much as you can.
Everyone left is working every other week with half the shift on each week so if a shift is wiped out, work can continue. Contractors can work out of alternate approved spaces.
Supply chain issues are popping up all over the place. I went into the gas station on the way to work to buy a cup of coffee this morning but couldn’t buy it… because there were no cups. The grocery store here hasn’t had TP or hand sanitizer in a week. There is plenty of food, but no chicken, and what is there is about 1/3 gone. Not just canned goods but pretty much any random item. There are only 100 cases in Maryland right now.

#106 2 years ago
Quoted from Wickerman2:

Geography has nothing to do with it. Korea drafted private companies 5 weeks before us to ramp up test kit production...that’s just 1 example

Quoted from dirkdiggler:

California officially shut down and 40 million ordered to stay home/inside

California is the perfect example, 40 mil is close to 90% of S. Koreas population 51,269,185, only comparable to 1 state here in the us and yea Geo absolutely plays a role, a huge role when it comes to supplies and how to get them where they are needed. I applaud their contracting those companies but they have much smaller area to contain.

#107 2 years ago
Quoted from silver_spinner:

everyone in china wears masks to this day, wonder when the USA citizens will do the same?

They wear masks because there air is so polluted you could cut it with a knife

#108 2 years ago
Quoted from RWH:

I don't think he is as they were reporting about that around here as well, these are temporary do to the panic so the ship will right itself soon and we'll be left with just trying to stay healthy.

Exactly. If you have enough to get through the next few weeks then everything should work out. That or expand your scope Chicago is a bit far to drive for me, but if it was necessary I would make the trip.

Partial screenshot from Target app for my area. It says “limited” stock at local store not available for pickup. I walked the local stores and none on shelves or in back. Same story for Walmart (online/local). Amazon(online). And the local grocery stores. Again EVERYONE says plenty of stock come April. Not trying to fearmonger. This is my reality.
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#109 2 years ago
Quoted from timab2000:

They wear masks because there are is so polluted you could cut it with a knife

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#110 2 years ago
Quoted from timab2000:

They wear masks because there are is so polluted you could cut it with a knife

Pollution standards equal to what we had at the turn of the century, the LAST century.

#111 2 years ago
Quoted from canea:

Not sure we'll see much decent containment until domestic air travel is shut down or limited to no unnecessary travel. Where I'm at everyone went on spring break like it was nothing - flew to Hawaii, California, Mexico, Peru - and they'll be coming back soon. Kids can't go to school for the foreseeable future but it's OK to fly all over the country?

We can all look at our federal governments that had there collective heads up there ass when they all knew, but didn't listen, to the professionals giving them advice to prepare. Sometimes you have to do what nobody wants and actually lead and tell the population this is the way its going to be. Allowing all the spring breakers or anyone else to fly around the world and the country, was (is as its still going on) fool hardy at best and negligent at worst.

#112 2 years ago
Quoted from RWH:

Geo absolutely plays a role, a huge role when it comes to supplies and how to get them where they are needed.

By that logic our supply chains would be stressed in this Country 24/7. Amazon has same day shipping! What specifically do you think we couldn’t ship fast enough within that same 5 week period? It starts with enlisting the companies 5 weeks earlier and then getting the supplies moving. We didn’t do that. We STILL aren’t apparently utilizing the defense act...today, now. This all happened weeks ago in Korea for example.

We live in a representative democracy. They work for us and represent us. We should hold them to higher standards...definitely in matters of life and death. I’m not going to shrug it off and give a pass. They have to do better. They wargamed this scenario 3 years ago...

#113 2 years ago

I stocked up on French Vanilla creamer. I’m very grumpy without coffee.

12
#114 2 years ago

Looks like gasoline being added to the fire from every angle. Now there is concern about spontaneous alcohol withdrawal from the liquor stores closing.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/pennsylvania-liquor-stores-closing-alcohol-dependence-addiction-20200317.html%3foutputType=amp

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#116 2 years ago

The more I think about the piecemeal quarantine / stimulus / recovery acts and the effects on people and the US economy, the more I think they are misguided at best.

- People are worried about their jobs. If not today, then how many days/weeks from now? Not all sectors are being affected equally, but all will see impact and it won't all be equal or happen at once, so...
- People might be trying to stay calm now, but once those first housing and car payments, etc get missed, or their business is finally affected, all bets are off
- "Sell off your unneeded assets" doesn't work when prices crash because everyone is in the same boat. Except the rich who get even greater deals.
- Even those who accept the need for quarantine - whether by understanding or by force - are anxious and bending or/flouting the recommendations because they need shelter and food, so they need to work. This double-speak is rampant even now! "Stay at home! But go out and order takeout from your local restaurant (and better pray they're not infected)!"
- A thousand-dollar check is nice... but won't even pay half the rent in many cases...

The haphazard economy is self-defeating and stimulus checks are misguided. What is needed is national quarantine to set the precedent (level the field) to implement a debt freeze for deferral. This could:

- If people don't have to worry about rent / mortgage / transport payments for the next month or whatever, that removes the temptation to skirt the rules and allows them to stay home.
- It allows discretionary businesses to rest easier in the decision to close and quit risking public health so they can make income to pay the bills.
- Household cash reserves are still spent on essential goods, with the rest hopefully saved to ride out the job recovery "on the other side" (whenever this is over).
- People able to WFH, and essential workers who can't stay home, will still drive the related economy by nature.
- Folks who are financially secure may continue to drive the economy by choice (Hey, those one-percenters love to claim they're the ones who drive and generate things from the top, so let them prove it...)

If this goes on for months, how many checks can the goverment cut over and over again? Keep in mind, shutting down the economy means no revenue (tax income) is being generated, so we're essentially double-dipping the impact those checks are going to cause (you think they ravage public services to reconcile revenue shortfalls now - holy shit can you imagine what the budget act is going to look like next year?!).

If debts were frozen and payments deferred, it could free liquidity for essential goods and reassure folks in the near term, providing stability...

OTOH, how you keep people from blowing their savings and/or assistance on frivolous non-essential goods then becomes the question, bah. So much of the economy is built on "non essentials"...

#117 2 years ago
Quoted from Rondogg:

Most people who don't understand science are just shutting up right now.

Funny, that isn't what I've observed.

#118 2 years ago
Quoted from wolfemaaan:

So we shut down the entire US over 200 deaths?

All you are doing is baiting everyone here. You are gone.

Everybody, put is idiot on ignore. All he is doing is jerking your chain. And it looks like he has been a doing good job of it.

#119 2 years ago

We have enjoyed using grocery delivery recently. Big tips for these awesome delivery people! Most things that aren't TP or chicken related seem to be in stock at our Publix. Their app for ordering is pretty good too.

One question - Perhaps one you software devs in the crowd can explain how the algorithm thinks pencils are related to eggs?

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#120 2 years ago
Quoted from RTR:

One question - Perhaps one you software devs in the crowd can explain how the algorithm thinks pencils are related to eggs?

It's more than likely based on correlation with the current orders going on. If a lot of people are buying eggs and pencils (like to homeschool their kids), then when you add eggs to your cart it thinks "hey, maybe this guy wants pencils too!".

#121 2 years ago

Brilliant! I knew there had to be a good reason. If I had kids at home, I would have thought that to be a magical insight.

I am somewhat pleased that Publix does not know my personal info down to the level of my pencil needs, lol

#122 2 years ago

The scariest thing to me is even with all the extreme measures our Federal and State governments are taking we still have a large part of our society that isn't taking this threat seriously.

#123 2 years ago
Quoted from Jaybird815:

My guess is that it will be announced once plants are ready, takes time to convert from Mustangs to ventilators.

Exactly. That won't be an easy conversion. The only auto workers that would translate well to putting tedious medical equipment together would be the people who build radios and under dash control systems. The big brute hanging fenders and doors is not going to have an easy time with putting microscopic parts.

It could take a year to figure out what kind of plant needs built, get it equipped and ready to go with all of the necessary parts on hand. And then you have on the job training to work through.

To me, it sounds like a last gasp pipe dream just so the powers that be can stay they are doing something.

#124 2 years ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

Exactly. That won't be an easy conversion. The only auto workers that would translate well to putting tedious medical equipment together would be the people who build radios and under dash control systems. The big brute hanging fenders and doors is not going to have an easy time with putting microscopic parts.
It could take a year to figure out what kind of plant needs built, get it equipped and ready to go with all of the necessary parts on hand. And then you have on the job training to work through.
To me, it sounds like a last gasp pipe dream just so the powers that be can stay they are doing something.

I don't know but I would hazard a guess the people who put these things together are not your ordinary assembly line workers so they will have a training period as well.

-16
#125 2 years ago

Thank God. Definitely a polarizing topic but so happy we now have one thread.

Thank you mods brilliant

Now let's talk about how we just took a gun, put it to the temple of our economy and pulled the trigger. Check the website people.....compare that to h1n1 where 58 million were infected and 450k died in the US and then talk. Facts matter. #panicgate.

And the media continues to be posion.

Old people with pre existing conditions stay home or risk dying. Young folks practice social distancing/limit your activity/be smart or risk getting flu like symptoms. Let's get past this. Stop fear mongering

#126 2 years ago

Cuomo just shut down the State of New York, reality is getting grimmer by the day.

#127 2 years ago
Quoted from delt31:

Thank God. Definitely a polarizing topic but so happy we now have one thread.
Thank you mods brilliant
Now let's talk about how we just took a gun, put it to the temple of our economy and pulled the trigger. Check the website people.....compare that to h1n1 where 58 million were infected and 450k died in the US and then talk. Facts matter. #panicgate.
And the media continues to be posion.

So you are saying you don't think people should learn from their mistakes of not taking something seriously because 'money'. I bet those 450k people and their relatives would have liked a different scenario.

-7
#128 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

So you are saying you don't think people should learn from their mistakes of not taking something seriously because 'money'.

You don't understand. You think everytime a virus hits we're going to run away and die? This can't be the response. We can be safe but not kill our economy.

#129 2 years ago
Quoted from delt31:

You don't understand. You think everytime a virus hits we're going to run away and die? This can't be the response. We can be safe but not kill our economy.

It's like you don't understand viruses and how numbers work. We all agree that this isn't THAT bad. YET. The key word being YET. However, you are taking numbers of how something played out completely, versus something that is just getting ramped up. Educate yourself. Our economy is dying because it's fake and propped up. There is zero reason for people to be broke, homeless, and businesses closing over 2 weeks of shutdown. All it does is show just how fragile it really is.

#130 2 years ago

And here we go again...

#131 2 years ago
Quoted from delt31:

Thank God. Definitely a polarizing topic but so happy we now have one thread.
Thank you mods brilliant
Now let's talk about how we just took a gun, put it to the temple of our economy and pulled the trigger. Check the website people.....compare that to h1n1 where 58 million were infected and 450k died in the US and then talk. Facts matter. #panicgate.
And the media continues to be posion.

H1N1 was around from January 2009 to August 2010, thats a year and a half. Lets check back on this in a year and a half and see where the numbers are. Corona has been around for what a month? Month and a half? Im sure someone has a data model that shows at the current growth rate, where this thing will be in 1.5 years, but i haven't taken the time yet to find it.

#132 2 years ago
Quoted from wolfemaaan:

The damage from shutting down the entire US will far outweighs 200 deaths let alone 2000

If you were one of the 200 I bet you & your family wouldn’t of thought that!

-16
#133 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

It's like you don't understand viruses and how numbers work.

Same snowflakes with the same nonsense. I check the numbers all the time. Not saying this won't get worse but we have to understand the current state, compare it to what other virus did, assess the amount impacted and be smart. I'll be the first to say we have something to panic about. It's not there right now. People do what I said earlier we will be much better.

I'm out don't want to repeat the same thing to the same vocal minority

#134 2 years ago
Quoted from delt31:

You don't understand. You think everytime a virus hits we're going to run away and die? This can't be the response. We can be safe but not kill our economy.

Quoted from Zablon:

It's like you don't understand viruses and how numbers work.

Lets just agree to disagree and move on to other points. Both of you have compelling stances but there is no right way to think.

#135 2 years ago

Using a false equivalence fallacy is rampant these days.

#136 2 years ago

Here’s something informative and relevant to this site. Just started putting more stuff in my Marco cart so I can at least work on games, and this notice popped up.

I did just get another order three days ago without any delay. But this notice wasn't there then.

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#137 2 years ago

Same here. I went to 2 stores yesterday and the chicken aisle was bare. Now, they cannot just magically grow chickens overnight so I figure it will be awhile before we see chicken in the cooler.

Yesterday, I made a crock pot of chicken soup with some wings I had in the freezer. I figure it will be awhile before I will be able to make more.

#138 2 years ago
Quoted from Wickerman2:

Not the 60 nations that accepted the WHO covid test back in January. South Korea found it’s first case exact same day as US. They’ve tested how many ? 100’s of thousands AND they have containment. This stuff matters to our reaction going forward.

I need a link to this one, please. I need to shove it into someone's face and say "READ !!!"

#139 2 years ago
Quoted from loneacer:

7.7 billion world population, 70% infection rate, 2-10% die without (and often with) adequate treatment. 107 million - 539 million worldwide deaths. That's what we'd see by making no changes from typical daily life.

I personally feel that posting these types of numbers is irresponsible... I am sensitive to how bad it could potentially be in this country, but if you view what's happening in China, Korea, Japan, and the fact that these countries are now flatlining or slowly diminishing with new cases, how can anyone responsibly say that there is going to be a 70% infection rate? That just seems way over the top to me.

#140 2 years ago
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#141 2 years ago

The way I look at it is if your main concern is the economy, then that says a lot as to what is wrong with the culture. You can make money back. Many of us have had to do it from nothing. Are there better ways to handle this situation? Probably. Going about our normal business as if nothing is wrong isn't one of them.

As for the numbers, those numbers are lower than expectations because those countries got in front of it and locked everything down early. Something WE didn't do - and continue to fight against doing.

#142 2 years ago
Quoted from Dono:

I personally feel that posting these types of numbers is irresponsible... I am sensitive to how bad it could potentially be in this country, but if you view what's happening in China, Korea, Japan, and the fact that these countries are now flatlining or slowly diminishing with new cases, how can anyone responsibly say that there is going to be a 70% infection rate? That just seems way over the top to me.

You gotta go big or go home.

Any Numbers that scare people into taking this seriously are not too big.

Fact is nobody knows what will happen. We all get to find out together. Yay!

#143 2 years ago

I think a lot of us need to take a step back and put our logical thinking caps on. A few of the things we know for fact without going into any virology or stats:

-The virus first appeared in November in China

-Started to spread out of hand in December in China.

-No quarantine in China until end of December/January

-WHO even reported in Jan that the virus was not contagious.

Guys, the virus didn’t just magically appear in the US, nor anywhere, just last week. It’s been festering since at least the end of December worldwide. Yes, the virus is contagious. We all need to realize that we are not seeing it spread near the rate some of you and the media are subscribing too. The wuhan flu has a 3 month head start on us. Everything being done is a knee jerk response in believing that the virus just got here and can be contained. We are way too late for that.

#144 2 years ago
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#145 2 years ago

Funny, the more we react to this appropriately (social distancing, shut downs, closing schools, washing hands, etc), the bigger chance we can make it look like an overreaction later.

I hope this does look like an overreaction at some point in the future, but I doubt it. Measuring our efforts against other countries that are further down the road than us - Italy - they did not react fast enough and are having a horrible time with it now.

China and South Korea - their interventions makes our "overreaction" look like a spring break beach party, but they seem to have things under control.

#146 2 years ago
Quoted from Dono:

I personally feel that posting these types of numbers is irresponsible... I am sensitive to how bad it could potentially be in this country, but if you view what's happening in China, Korea, Japan, and the fact that these countries are now flatlining or slowly diminishing with new cases, how can anyone responsibly say that there is going to be a 70% infection rate? That just seems way over the top to me.

So you object to all the leaders telling their citizens that?

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that up to 70% of the country's population - some 58 million people - could contract the coronavirus."

"As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalization,” states the Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials"

"California governor projects "56% of state's population will be infected" in the next 8 weeks"

#147 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

The way I look at it is if your main concern is the economy, then that says a lot as to what is wrong with the culture. You can make money back.

Yes, but the amount of suicides likely will increase over lost retirements, no employment, high debt, etc. Our suicide rates are already high and trending higher, this is only going to accelerate it.

#148 2 years ago
Quoted from RTR:

look like an overreaction

That’s what the disease people say, if it looks like an overreaction later, that means you were successful on some level.

#149 2 years ago

Wonder how busy my lake will be couple weeks . glad I love to eat the fish I catch. I have been filling gas cans like there is no tomorrow.

#150 2 years ago
Quoted from delt31:

Not saying this won't get worse but we have to understand the current state, compare it to what other virus did, assess the amount impacted and be smart.

I'm afraid there's no point in comparing viruses. Some viruses have a higher mortality rate than others, some transmit more easily than others and so on. Just because they are both viruses means nothing.

It would be like comparing the actions of a house cat and a tiger if you took turns putting one of each in a room full of people. They're both technically cats, but you can't look at the behaviour and impact of the house cat and use it to predict what would happen with the tiger, or vice versa.

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