Quoted from poppapin:Thankful I don't have anyone in a NY nursing home!
My version:
“thankful I don’t have anyone in a nursing home”
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Quoted from albummydavis:We didn’t fail miserably. Could we have done better? Probably. Our per capita death rate is lower than so many other countries. To expect significantly better in the face of a pandemic isn’t entirely realistic.
I guess an argument could be made along the lines of “no one expects the Spanish Inquisition” at the start of all this. It’s not an argument I personally would make, but it does have some merit.
Since then, we have sacrificed so much to buy us time. However, we have squandered this time which has left us completely vulnerable. That ineptitude lies at the feet of the federal response. Anything good that is being done is being done at the state level. The fed response is still a complete cluster
If this thing starts ramping up again (which I would argue is extremely likely) we still have:
limited beds and supplies. Especially in the Midsize and smaller towns and regions. So far these regions have been mostly spared, but the strategy seems to be to just hope that to remain true I say hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
I mean, the feds are shipping out bulk packages of q-tips for testing (wrong length, wrong size, not sterile packed) and cloth masks that don’t even meet surgical grade requirements for PPE. literally, they sent Washington state a pallet of swabs used to clean babies.
No clear consistent guidance for safety from osha or cdc. For example, enhanced safety measures that have been given so far to meat packing and nursing homes are optional.
States are still being told one day to fend for themselves and then having their supplies seized the next day.
CDC is mixing testing data streams (virus and antibody tests) which adds to confusion for the epidemiologists.
Reporting to the feds for the most part is optional. In other words, they are not forcing a reporting standard on the states for consistency and accuracy.
We STILL are not doing nearly enough tests to have any idea the scope of this thing out there in the wild. Again, this has been left to individual states to figure out / care about on their own.
And so on.
Every farmhand at a Tennessee Farm has tested positive.
Two thoughts
1) 
2). I’m surprised and impressed they tested everyone.
This should come as a shock to absolutely no one. Party goer at crowded pool party tests positive.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/29/us/ozarks-missouri-party-coronavirus/index.html
“Here Brazil, take these extra doses of a medicine proven to be at best ineffective and at worst deadly. You’re welcome.”
Came across a suggestion today about how to mitigate glasses fogging up from homemade masks:
Swimmer nose clips. Wear them on the outside of the mask.
Looks pretty silly, and a little uncomfortable, but damn if it didn’t do the trick.
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:No b.s. clean your glasses with shaving cream. It is naturally anti fogging. Next time you shower rub a little on a cloth and rub it over a part of a mirror that normally fogs up to test effects. You can also write sweet notes to your spouse or evil threats to your enemies using this method that only show up after a hot shower.
Thanks! Will try that one too.
In regards to the notes...talk about 2 sides of the same coin! 
An example:
During the shutdown, the major hospital networks in Arizona were required to build out to 125% surge ICU capacity. Regular beds were significantly increased too. The shutdown gave them time to do this.
But then AZ opened up. As of Friday, one of these in Maricopa county had exceeded 100% and was in the surge capacity. Case rate is still increasing and hospitalizations lag, so they expect to be maxed out soon.
Not looking good.
Agreed. The way the tear gasses mess up your mucus membranes AND cause hacking/snotting/touching-of-the-face can’t be good.
New cases by region from the COVID-19 tracking project. To me, some regions have had a first wave, but others look more like storm surge + tide rolling in (i.e. the first wave ain’t over).
Also note per the project:
“While the spike in the midwest is an artifact of that Michigan reporting change, the south, southwest, and west trends are now well established.”
My comment:
Minnesota has changed how they report top line numbers too. They changed from reporting people tested to reporting number of tests given. Doesn’t have an effect on the charts below, but just goes to show how these data aggregators have to struggle with the shifting quality of the data from (at least) 50 different data streams.
1015D739-6526-402A-80D2-443349BA7096.jpegWelp, shit just got (more) personal. My wife’s cousin just died from it. Early 30s, no pre-existing conditions. The cousin’s dad is still in the ICU with it. The current thinking is that he caught it at a funeral and the cousin caught it when they were taking care of the dad.
Wife is currently starting the argument with her parents about how they shouldn’t go to the funeral, but
1) they are stubborn
2) they ain’t afraid of no bug
3) funerals are big freaking deals and go on for days.
I think it’s time to bring the kids downstairs and play some pinball so that they can’t hear the choice words my wife is probably going to let loose any second now.
Quoted from Who-Dey:Cotton you always post your news from the same news source and it's a really horrible place to get your news. The economy is very strong right now and its coming back with a vengeance.
Wall Street certainly came back with a vengeance. Iceman44 was 100% right on that one. Don’t fight the fed.
Main Street is still on life support (stimulus) however.
Technically we are in a recession right now. 
https://www.nber.org/cycles/june2020.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-economy-february-coronavirus-nber-official-data-2020-6
A handful of states are now at or above their previous shutdown peaks in new cases:
Texas
California
Florida (almost at peak. Approx double the new cases as May 4th when they reopened)
These just happen to be the three most populous states.
A few more smaller states are also ramping up at an alarming rate:
AZ
SC
NC
UT
Since I have been obsessing over AZ For awhile let’s use them as an example below:
6B7F0C71-1FE9-4908-B4D0-8E5449AC61E5.pngConversation we had at home this morning.
Me: ok, time for a short lesson
Kids: but it's summer
Me: When you stayed home from school, I stayed home to be your teacher. You're still home, I'm still home. Time for school.
Kids: ....Pinball?
Me: ok, but just for a bit then time for reading comprehension.
I think I am nailing this homeschooling.
Quoted from chad:Or send in the big ship. When in NYC the 1000 bed boat only took in 182 patients.
70% of them had covid
https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2020/04/30/hospital-ship-comfort-departs-nyc-having-treated-fewer-than-200-patients/
Well to be fair, at first they banned all covid cases and refused to let ambulances drop people off until after they first had gone to a brick and mortar hospital and been tested/cleared.
Then they really screwed with all the logistics of getting people to the ship.
By the time they had it all sorted out, the ship wasn’t needed as badly anymore.
Quoted from Utesichiban:It won't take years. Worst case, one year given how many vaccine and treatment candidates there are in clinical trials.
Some of these will surely emerge and be effective. Hopefully it will be a few of the early candidates so we can move the timeframe up to end of this year.
It is my understanding that even if we had the best most beautiful vaccine the likes of which you have never seen and we had it Today, we still wouldn’t be able to manufacture and distribute a significant amount by the end of the year.
That’s the other half of the problem that concerns me.
Public health department workers/leaders are struggling with the dangers of the pandemic...not the virus, the armed protesters.
Remember that Florida official that was in charge of the official Covid data tracking website who got fired for not massaging the data as requested? Well, she has set up her own website now to track the data and directly compete with the official website she originally designed.
Surprise surprise, her data diverges from the official data. Her picture is not nearly as rosy. A link to a story about it.
Quoted from o-din:Seems like the perfect place to hold a convention.
Now with cruise ship hotels!
First states to reopen are hitting record new cases numbers. As much as they may wish it to be so, increased testing does not explain away the spike.
Quote of the day:
“We really never quite finished the first wave,” Dr. Ashish Jha, a professor of global health at Harvard University, told NPR. “And it doesn’t look like we are going to anytime soon.”
Quoted from Daditude:I believe that the 20s, 50s, and 80s we're the best decades in the last 100+ years of our country.
A statement like that deserves it’s own thread with a lengthy explanation. 
A few months ago I saw a similar visualization of cause of death over time in USA. Below is a global one from January thru May. As horrible as the events behind the data are, I find these little presentations visually pleasing.
Said this before but I don’t think we can realistically expect all the susceptible population and their families/caretakers to shelter in place while everyone else carries on. It’s just too many people.
“In North America, 28% of the population, or 104 million people, had at least one underlying condition that put them at increased risk of developing severe Covid-19 if they caught the virus, according to the study.”
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30264-3/fulltext
Looks like there may be a treatment for severe cases that works, is cheap, and is plentiful! Holding back the high fives until the study is replicated a few times, but this is potentially very good news.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/steroid-dexamethasone-reduces-deaths-from-severe-covid-19-trial.html
Started the day on a positive note, and I never can leave well enough alone, so here is some bad news:
Quoted from EternitytoM83:Would there happen to be any glasses wearers in here who can recommend a face mask that doesn't completely suck? All I'm looking for is a mask that 1. is black (or at least isn't white), 2. doesn't constantly fog up my glasses, and 3. doesn't yank my ears off (since I sort of need them to hold my glasses on). Apparently that's akin to finding the Holy Grail.
There have been a few tips and tricks shared in this thread. For example:
1) make sure the metal bendy part is tight on the bridge of your nose
2) place your glasses a little farther down on your nose over the mask
3) try wiping your glasses down with an anti fogger. For instance, shaving cream
4) try swimmer nose pincher thingies over mask
Quoted from Atrain:The cases are rising, but to me it doesn't seem like the deaths are rising, which is great news. Am I looking at the data correctly? Have we gained some immunity to the virus and because more people have caught it they can't catch it again and things are "better" now than in March? I would have thought the death rate would have been spiking as well but that doesn't seem to be happening. I am a little confused, but liking that the deaths are not rising.
Give it 3-5 weeks.
Also deaths does not equal death rate (case fatality rate). CFR should hold steady at around 4-6% while total deaths keep climbing
A few days old but just came across this study that suggests they even asymptomatic people have detectable abnormalities in their lungs.
“When they look at these CT scans, it’s hazy — looks like you’re looking through a dirty piece of glass. What that means is there’s something abnormal about the lungs.”
That...doesn’t sound good.
Also there is this:
“ Researchers analyzing public datasets found that as many as 45 percent of people infected with COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, never have traditional signs such as coughing, fever or shortness of breath.
What's more, in one of the datasets, more than half of asymptomatic patients had CT scans with signs of serious lung damage.”
Quoted from cdnpinbacon:We can start with origin: unknown
Also interesting that there is now evidence that it was in Europe earlier than initially thought. They found traces of it in sewage samples back in December.
Quoted from CrazyLevi:My girlfriend tested + for antibody. She’s
Visiting her mom so wanted both tests. - for big rona.
I guess that means me too but don’t think I’m gonna bother getting tested because it’s not gonna change my behavior any. Nobody seems to know what antibody means.
Meanwhile, I guess we don’t have to worry about any super spreading in Tulsa. Tiny “crowds.”
Which test (brand) did she take?
Quoted from Who-Dey:The Coronavirus is weakening says an Italian Doctor. This is great news that I'm sure that we can all be happy about right?
https://www.foxnews.com/world/italian-doctor-says-coronavirus-weakening-may-disappear-on-its-own-report
If it turns out to be true, I will be the first doing a Jack style cartwheel in the streets.
Sadly, I am highly pessimistic.
Well here now is some interesting and maybe, just maybe, good news.
A way to potentially disable the virus so that it cannot readily infect others.
Now if only they can quickly make it in mask form, in quantity, and provide more than proof of concept that it works.
Quoted from Who-Dey:You have a handful of people in this thread that are nothing but doom and gloom. I'm suspect that they will still be here fear mongering long after the coronavirus is a thing of the past.
That’s like my best case scenario... to still be here doom and glooming it up when this is all over.
Heads up. A questionable hand sanitizer manufacturer, Eskbiochem, has been using methanol in its products. 
Toss em if you got em:
All-Clean Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-002-01)
Esk Biochem Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-007-01)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 75% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-008-04)
Lavar 70 Gel Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-006-01)
The Good Gel Antibacterial Gel Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-010-10)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 80% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-005-03)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 75% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-009-01)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 80% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-003-01)
Saniderm Advanced Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-001-01)
Serious accusation from the former head of the Florida data website: Florida is falsifying hospital data so that they can fully open by July 4th.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GeoRebekah/status/1275539491034402821
These new projections for Harris county TX are...
https://policylab.chop.edu/covid-lab-mapping-covid-19-your-community
017241D9-BA9F-4257-B8E7-D9F98804E8A3.jpegQuoted from hailrazer:Do we have any stats on how many who get Covid19 and don't die have serious complications afterwards. Interested to see what percent recover 100% and what percent have serious complications that will last their lifetime.
Still way too early to determine the long term effects of having Covid19. The evidence that does exist is concerning though.
There is some evidence that a good portion of asymptomatic folks have detectable changes in lung scans several weeks out. We simply don't know if these changes will resolve themselves or if they are permanent.
There are also plenty of stories of people that weren't even hospitalized, (but were sick enough to go get tested and know they had it), that struggle to walk up flights of stairs or around the block even weeks after "recovery". Still too early to tell how long until these effects resolve themselves.
Unfortunately, you will need to check back in a couple of years.
Quoted from chad:Hopefully no one is having major exertion while wearing mask.
If this is truly a problem then ask yourself:
How have medical professionals (surgeons, nurses, infectious disease researchers, etc...) been able to survive all these years with no deleterious effects?
Also cases are trending younger (for now). I suspect that eventually the young will expose the elderly and average infected age will normalize (increase).
Right now those newly diagnosed are generally not in the hospital system.
Give it a few more weeks until the hospitals are fully in surge mode. If past is prologue, that will cause CFR to tick up.
I keep having to remind my inlaws that it’s kinda like rain storms and flooding. The cresting doesn’t happen until later.
Quoted from hailrazer:Do we have any stats on how many who get Covid19 and don't die have serious complications afterwards. Interested to see what percent recover 100% and what percent have serious complications that will last their lifetime.
Quoted from Oaken:Still way too early to determine the long term effects of having Covid19. The evidence that does exist is concerning though.
There is some evidence that a good portion of asymptomatic folks have detectable changes in lung scans several weeks out. We simply don't know if these changes will resolve themselves or if they are permanent.
There are also plenty of stories of people that weren't even hospitalized, (but were sick enough to go get tested and know they had it), that struggle to walk up flights of stairs or around the block even weeks after "recovery". Still too early to tell how long until these effects resolve themselves.
Unfortunately, you will need to check back in a couple of years.
Just came across a related article on this topic:
Quoted from Who-Dey:You cant be afraid to leave your house, that's dumb. You should be more worried about cancer, heart disease, diabetes, dying in a car wreck and things like that.
The first thing that popped in my head when I read this was “Great. Now I need to be afraid of car wrecks in my house”. I think I have been playing cars with my son too much.
Also, statistically many of those things are now less likely to kill you than covid. And you usually get to have family at your side as you pass. And they are not contagious. Just saying.
Quoted from Oaken:Just came across a related article on this topic:
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN23X1BZ
And another handful:
Hey it can potentially affect the testes and they have had to remove a handful of guts hurray:
Brains:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-infection
General article:
Quoted from Who-Dey:Oaken that's just not true buddy. There are way more people dying of Cancer and Heart disease and Diabetes etc than Covid-19
Ok I’ll bite:
2019 full year fatality totals usa
Categories you cited that I was referring to when I said “some” of the causes of death you were referring to
Car crashes 39,000
Diabetes 83,000
Murder 20,000
Etc...
Categories covid hasn’t caught up to yet
Heart disease 647,000
Cancer 607,000
Also I seem to recall the old argument was it doesn’t kill more than flu. Now we are arguing it isn’t that scary because it doesn’t kill more than all cancers combined?
I thought the Georgia choir incident (among other church related clusters) had taught us that indoor group singing is a bad idea at this time. Apparently we needed another lesson:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/politics/mike-pence-dallas-choir-no-masks-church-event/index.html
Herd immunity the brutal old fashioned way means you surrender between 0.5-5.0% of the population to death directly to covid, an untold number to preventable death because covid got in the way, and who the hell knows how many with permanent disability.
One would hope we could do better than the Middle Ages.
Quoted from henrydwh:Well... Kansas has gone from phase 3 of reopening to mandatory masks state wide! But the bars are still open, not sure how that works with mandatory masks!
Quoted from Oaken:Oh and we are undercounting deaths too:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html
New study in JAMA about recent death undercount.
“Findings In this cohort study, the number of deaths due to any cause increased by approximately 122 000 from March 1 to May 30, 2020, which is 28% higher than the reported number of COVID-19 deaths.”
Heat map from folks at Harvard.
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
FFB11494-71A5-41B7-9796-B6C72F59E4E3 (resized).jpegQuoted from Who-Dey:The truth is they just dont know Daditude. One thing we do know though is infection rates are climbing and Covidndeaths are declining so thats a positive thing and not gloom and doom like some people are acting like.
Give it 4 more weeks.
Longer read (as most Pro Publica tends to be) but I found it engaging. Houston (and Texas writ large) hospitals are in for a world of hurt.
I hope that the Cuomo “pay it forward/pay it back” pleas earlier in this crisis are activated to help the Southwest. Reposition those hospital ships as well (and make better use of them this time). I don’t see California bailing anyone out this time, they have their own fires now to contend with.
Quoted from JohnnyPinball007:This morning at the tag office while I was trying to fill out a form, my damn reading glasses kept fogging up so I had to pull my mask below my nose. I was 12 feet away anyway from anyone.
How does anyone that wear glasses work all day with a mask on? Do you treat the glasses with something to stop the fogging or what?
Quoted from Oaken:There have been a few tips and tricks shared in this thread. For example:
1) make sure the metal bendy part is tight on the bridge of your nose
2) place your glasses a little farther down on your nose over the mask
3) try wiping your glasses down with an anti fogger. For instance, shaving cream
4) try swimmer nose pincher thingies over mask
Quoted from Who-Dey:We are testing more than any other country, thats why cases keep going up. Deaths on the other hand are on the decline........thats a good thing for all you gloomer doomers.
Be patient with me. What do you mean by deaths?
Do you mean:
Case fatality rate?
deaths per day?
Deaths per 100,000 people?
As far as testing... here is a good article rebutting your argument:
For the charts that cotton posted, be careful how you line them up. You can’t just take April 15 deaths and place it against April 15 cases. There is a lag of around 4 weeks. The case jump you see today will pop up in the death charts next month. If the charts don’t pop, then that is very good news. However you are playing with fire if you look at today’s infections and compare it to today’s deaths.
That’s where using CFR as opposed to total or daily deaths can be more helpful. To be fair, CFR does have a bit of the opposite problem, since there is a lag in recovery time too.
Personally I prefer to err on the more conservative worse case and be pleasantly surprised vs erring on the positive case and getting my knees cut off.
This is what I have been driving at in several of my responses.
Now all that being said, the CFR rate IS dropping, (albeit slowly) and that is good news. Our CFR is still way to high for celebration though and we did previously have one of the highest CFRs amongst our peers.
To put it another way, my concern is that many folks are lumping all the data together and drawing false conclusions.
Keep in mind we don’t just have one big national outbreak. We have dozens and dozens of localized outbreaks with swaths of no outbreak regions.
Basically Simpson’s Paradox.
Yep. Similar boat here. School district plan is to be open for fall, but to prepare to close individual schools “when the inevitable outbreak occurs”. (Their words in the PTA newsletter).
We are planning for my full time job this fall to continue as the principal and head taskmaster of Daddy School.
I think I have math, reading comprehension and gym class down, but man is art class and social studies gonna suffer.
That is pretty darn cool and does get me pretty excited.
but,
90% success rate isn’t all that fantastic from a clinical standpoint.
From screener standpoint I see some great applications. If they can get the speed up even at the cost of some more accuracy, it would still be far superior to other screening techniques (like temp checks). 1 minute is tough though for venues.
It is so close to being awesome.
Some more hand sanitizers have been found to be contaminated with methanol:
Hand sanitizer Gel Unscented 70% Alcohol, made by Grupo Insoma, S.A.P.I de CV (Mexico)
Mystic Shield Protection hand sanitizer, made by Transliquid Technologies (Mexico)
Bersih Hand Sanitizer Gel Fragrance Free, made by Soluciones Cosmeticas SA de CV (Mexico)
Antiseptic Alcohol 70% Topical Solution hand sanitizer, made by Soluciones Cosmeticas SA de CV (Mexico)
Britz Hand Sanitizer Ethyl Alcohol 70%, made by Tropicosmeticos SA de CV (Mexico)
Full list of bad products (so far):
https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-updates-hand-sanitizers-methanol
Quoted from Who-Dey:I guess any of that stuff is possible but I think there is something to the benefits of hydroxychloroquine also.
Definitely...for lupus.
Quoted from Who-Dey:Why do you guys get so much joy out of a person who gets sick with Corona just because maybe they didnt think it was all that serious? It's almost like you are joyful that this guy is sick. I would be careful about gloating over something like this because karma can be a MF.
No joy in this “I told you so”.
A way to think of it. There is a person who keeps setting bonfires inside their house. I keep telling them dude, you are gonna set your house on fire, stop it. They call me a whiny baby and tell me to screw off.
Well sure enough a few days later their house catches on fire. Did I want their house to burn down? Hell no. That’s why I tried to get them to knock it off. Their house being on fire also needlessly endangers their neighbors, first responders, and community writ large.
Now I may act sarcastic and use a “you dipshit” tone, but I don’t actually wish them harm. It’s me coping with frustration because the outcome was entirely predictable if only they would listen.
Quoted from PantherCityPins:Interesting chart. Two observations:
First, I wonder if the rate of decline would be a more telling piece of information. If you look at that chart the percent positive has clearly leveled off in the last week to two weeks after being in decline before. With increased number of tests done, that means increased cases as well. In other words the decline we saw before has now disappeared which is a relative increase vs the trend. I’m not a statistician so not sure if I’m saying that in the best way or not.
Second, I think regional data is probably better to look at vs national data. Right now you have states like Texas, Florida and Arizona spiking while there are other states who have things more under control. Obviously national data is going to average out between the hot and cold states.
+1 to looking at regional data. Last I saw Arizona was at something like 20 plus percent testing positive. This is a tell tale sign of testing shortages / only testing people already exhibiting symptoms.
Also regionally there are massive testing lines and severe test shortages. Looking at you Phoenix.
Here in my corner of MN, tests are plentiful and percent positive is low but starting to rise again.
Quoted from cottonm4:I'm trying to figure out how South Dakota and Nebraska are remaining relatively unscathed. Both of these states have a lot of meat packers.
Will do some digging tonight. At first blush I would guess the counties surrounding the plants (including Iowa counties) would be disproportionately bad and the rest of the state would be disproportionately good, resulting in an overall not so bad number.
in Nebraska overall they are at 10% positivity...which is not bad for USA, but shit compared to places that have this thing under control.
Quoted from DakotaMike:Well, we all ready had our major meatpacking plant outbreak a couple months back. Supposedly the Smithfield plant (where the main outbreak in the state was) is now open again with enhanced safety and lots of testing. If it wasn't for that outbreak, our numbers would be a lot better, even though they're still pretty good compared to most places.
I think our complete lack of any major cities is probably a big help. Also related to that, our pop density is very low which also helps too I imagine. We closed a lot things pretty early on, but most places are now open with limited to no restrictions. Costco still makes you wear a mask of course, but most places don't, and most people aren't anymore when I go out. Still, all the major crowded-events have been cancelled, churches still aren't having in-person services, and people are being more cautious in general with keeping distance and not shaking hands and stuff. But plenty of people are still going to bars and stuff. My big concern is the rally that Pres. Trump held out west. I'm worried our numbers will spike from that, but I'm hoping not. Anyone heard about spikes from Tulsa or other rallys? It's been a couple weeks.
So IDK. I'm just glad we are doing okay for now. I see the orange and red closing in around us, it's starting to feel like we're an island!
Thank you for the local perspective. I have been having a heck of a time finding more recent info on you guys other than the typical data update.
As far as Tulsa, their numbers were climbing before the event, and they are still climbing. With the explosive nature this virus can have, certainly seems likely to have worsened the situation.
The local health department isn’t allowed to point fingers or name specific names, but boy do they ever strongly hint that the rally caused problems.
“In the past few days, we’ve seen almost 500 new cases, and we had several large events just over two weeks ago, so I guess we just connect the dots,” Dart said.
In regards to the schools here in the USA....it doesn’t inspire confidence when the argument from the powers that be is that “there is no evidence the kids are transmission vectors” and then under questioning they admit they haven’t really been testing the kids or pursuing that hypothesis.
Basically there is no evidence either way because they aren’t looking for any.
See no evil, hear no evil is not a sound pandemic response.
Speaking of testing, came across this article that does a good job of explaining why no, we are not doing remotely enough testing.
The TL:DR version is that as infections rise, you need to do more and more testing in order to get a handle on the size of your epidemic. So while it may be true that we have done more total tests than our peers, we also have a far larger epidemic, one that far exceeds our current testing regime at a national level. Your mileage may vary locally.
Quoted from herg:Let's say schools don't open. Dipshit's little problems now need to go to daycare so that dipshit can go to work and get the economy rolling again, or maybe just buy some groceries. All the daycare was already full pre-virus, cost $1000 a month, and now they have to deal with the virus as well. I don't think that will make availability better or less expensive.
I'm grateful that my wife is able to care for my son while I'm working. Many of my neighbors are scrambling to find "tutors" or at least sitters to supervise their children during "distance" learning this fall. It's certainly a seller's market.
In our county, we have until July 15 to decide between two school options. Once we decide, we're locked in for the first semester.
1. Two days of in-person learning with like 11 spread out students per classroom. Two days of unsupervised distance learning. One day of what I think amounts to the schools scrambling to figure out what they need to change on the fly.
2. Four days of distance learning, with about 70% of it "supervised". Of course, that just means a teacher is on the other end of the internet link. You still have to have an adult in the house. Oh, and that one day of scrambling as well.
The county is providing a Chromebook for every student. My wife is buying a desk and likely resigning from her part-time job. I'm blessed to be in a position to do this. The majority of people won't be, I venture.
For our family, we are lucky in a sense that my wife has a good job, because mine has gone poof. Less lucky in that she has to deal with covid patients. Our governor decides at the end of the month what school looks like in the fall. Given what we know now, and unless new information is discovered, I am not putting my kids in a classroom. So yeah, now we are a single income household.
Most folks aren’t so lucky to be able to cope with having a large portion of their income evaporate overnight for a 12+ month extended period.
My wife’s nurse practitioner has a wife who is also a nurse. Three kids. Their kids are in school or daycare. Daycare has closed. School is who knows. Net net, that means one has to quit their job. Pretty big hit for them.
The whole argument of “well they shouldn’t have had the kids then” or “take some responsibility and plan for being kicked in the teeth you whiny dipshits” is a bit callous to say the least.
Quoted from phil-lee:There is no cure for this. Why lose your wealth for the luxury of dying in a Hospital? I can take the 3000 dollar drug at home. I can use a sleep apnea mask to get a little more oxygen.
The death rate is dropping. That is all anyone cares about is the death rate which is minuscule compared to past Pandemics.
The rest is hype pushed by the media. Cases? Means nothing. More testing? Why, so they can enter you in a file and invade your privacy? I can pass a test this morning and be exposed leaving the test Facility. Testing is worthless. There are obviously millions walking around positive, so what? They are asymptomatic. Testing is merely revealing more asymptomatic people and feeding frenzied headlines.
People cheer when a former denier tests positive, Media breathlessly reveals these "Cases" to point an accusing finger and humiliate. What about the thousands who don't have it, were exposed and suffered no ill effects, or those who compared it to a bad cold? You rarely hear about them.
Fauci is back doomsdaying, didn't he admit lying to us about masks a few weeks back? Why should he be relevant or believed now.
I will make a bold prediction. All of this will end in December. Miraculously go away. A lot of people are saying the same thing.
Until then tell me what good testing is? You and I will get it sooner or later. We are past hiding from it. They love to criticize Sweden because they didn't follow the scam narrative. What difference did it make? People needlessly died? Horse hockey.
Keep from overloading Hospitals? That crap flew out the window a Month ago with accurate, certified reports of empty Hospitals waiting for patients that never showed. Canceling surgeries that were necessary for what?
Over..
That is some gish gallop you got going on there. Safe to say you and I have little agreement on this pandemic and low probability of convincing each other otherwise.
Quoted from Who-Dey:Sounds like you got it somewhat figured out to me. People will do whatever they have to do to survive. This isnt a forever situation so I'm sure that you will figure it out.
Situations like this though which I will admit I never thought that I would see happen is the reason that I live a debt free life. I realize that's not possible for everyone to do but if you arent debt free then live a simple life. 90% of the people that I know live way above their means and many of them would lose it all if they had to be out of work for a month......heck a lot of them couldn't last a damn week.
I'm also not meaning you personally when I say you, I'm just talking about people in general. I think one of the good things that will come out of this is a lot more people will start living as debt free as possible and they will actually have a savings account for the first time in their life.
In summary, people were not taking appropriate steps to protect their financials in the face of economic calamity. Maskless even. And so it’s no surprise that their lifestyle caught a debilitating infection and while unfortunate is kind of deserved.
I’m teasing who-Dey a bit here, but my finer point is that it is easy for any of us to come off as heartless when we really are not. This whole thing is a very frustrating and disturbing situation.
A lot of folks in dire straits aren’t there because they were going to Cabo twice a year instead of paying down student loans. A lot of young families simply haven’t had the ability to live debt free whether they wanted to or not. The financial crisis a few years back coupled with the pandemic crisis has really put a crimp in savings and earnings power for millennials and younger. Eating ramen and dry beans can shave a few years off the mortgage, but won’t erase it. Sure, there are plenty of folks out there that live and spend beyond their means, but what good does it do anyone to scold them as they stand in the breadline?
Good article on the likely reasons death curve has been falling while cases rise. Pretty much summarizes the points we have been debating in this forum. Helpful for those not constantly keeping up with the every post.
Something there for pretty much everyone.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/why-covid-death-rate-down/613945/
Quoted from OLDPINGUY:A question for all.....How many here are High Risk?
I find that a huge part of my personal and family discussions come back to this.
It seems to me those with high risk, have a level of fear and action, that is not empathized with.
This is somewhat related.
Quoted from Oaken:Said this before but I don’t think we can realistically expect all the susceptible population and their families/caretakers to shelter in place while everyone else carries on. It’s just too many people.
“In North America, 28% of the population, or 104 million people, had at least one underlying condition that put them at increased risk of developing severe Covid-19 if they caught the virus, according to the study.”
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30264-3/fulltext
Testing update: as of Friday, turns out I was only partially right. There ARE plenty of test kits and plenty of lab capacity. BUT, there is a shortage of reagents again. My understanding is that the shortage is or will be becoming widespread nationally. This is leading to delays in processing samples. As of Monday they are thinking it will be a delay of 10 days give or take. Delays expected to get worse too in the short term.
So...the MN Covid numbers will be a little misleading going forward due to the throttling of results.
Haven’t talked about this yet, but the Mississippi legislature outbreak is exactly the frustratingly predictable sort of thing us science based folks have been screaming from the hilltops.
Don’t mistake my “I told you so” for joy. It’s not. MS is hurting in no small part due to these Covidiots.
Good news is that since it is themselves, their friends, and their family at risk, it does appear that they are now taking the threat seriously and starting to take measures to protect their citizens.
This is in contrast to Bolsonaro who keeps taking his mask off and shaking hands even though he knows he is infected. And has not moderated his stance on the virus at all.
And a quote that stuck out to me:
“If you have been in contact with anyone in the Legislature, or if you have been in contact with any staff person that works at the Legislature, you need to get tested,” warned Republican Gov. Tate Reeves, who has tested negative.
A preview of what will happen if we open schools this fall in regions experiencing outbreaks:
3 summer school teachers shared a classroom. They wore gloves, sanitized, etc... all 3 caught covid. 1 died.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/12/us/arizona-teachers-coronavirus/index.html
Quoted from PantherCityPins:He probably knows he just has to endure for 6 more months.
As Michael Scott once said “I don’t have to outlast Dunder-Mifflin, I just have to outlast you.”
Agreed, but I am slowly coming around to the idea that we would all be better served if he just let loose and let us know what he truly thinks. Like, let it all hang out. Not like the boss is listening to him anymore anyway, and the next boss can always reinstate him.
Now here’s some news that sends my conspiracy heart a flutter: send in the National Guard to help...control the covid data:
Oh good. Hospitals are now being instructed to submit all covid related data to a political appointee of the Health and Human Services (HHS) Department rather than directly to the CDC. HHS will then (after reviewing the data) share relevant info with the CDC.
43 yr old Dude stabbed a 77yr old because the geriatric yelled at him for disobeying state mask law.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/us/michigan-mask-dispute-death-trnd/index.html
Covid skeptical Oklahoma governor tests positive:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/oklahoma-gov-kevin-stitt-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html
Quoted from Craigmack:I'm sure this was just an honest mistake right? RIGHT? My parents have been home bound since this started as they are at risk. We have been going to extremes to keep them stocked with food, medicine and essentials so they don't have to leave their home.
"Orlando Health has just confirmed that some of the data it shared over the weekend were wrong, after journalists reported more than 50 labs showing 100% positivity rate, or roughly around there.
Journalists looked into the numbers and contacted a few of the labs to confirm that their internal data matched the public data released by the state.
As it turned out, some of these discrepancies were pretty extreme: Orlando Health, confirmed that it's positivity rate was actually 9.8%, not the 98% that had been reported to the state."
9.8% is still a disaster. 98% obviously a reporting mistake.
Quoted from jlm33:Some good news on the vaccine front:
A Covid-19 vaccine developed by the biotechnology company Moderna looks promising.
The vaccine has triggered immune responses in all of the 45 volunteers who received it in a Phase 1 trial, according to early results published yesterday. The study also revealed some mild side effects -- fatigue, chills, headache, muscle pain and pain at the injection site.
While the immune responses are encouraging, the scientists behind the trial cautioned it was not clear whether the levels they were seeing would actually protect against infection. A Phase 3 trial involving 30,000 volunteers is scheduled to start in less than two weeks. Moderna said if all goes well, it would be "on track to be able to deliver approximately 500 million doses per year, and possibly up to 1 billion doses per year, beginning in 2021."
Note: remember that, even if successful, a vaccine is a preventive measure, not a cure! It won't save you if you are contaminated in the meantime.
Until then, be paranoid if you are in a high-risk group, and be careful otherwise.
Washing hands won't hurt...
Temper expectations with Moderna. Many times with normal drugs, those that pass Phase 1 do not pass Phase 3.
Also, Moderna is using a never before used approach (several other companies are trying the same new approach). We don’t know if this method will have adverse effects in the larger population
The higher dosage did hospitalize one of the volunteers. As they expand to Phase 3, it will be interesting to see how the broader swath of 30,000 volunteers do.
Quoted from Oaken:Oh good. Hospitals are now being instructed to submit all covid related data to a political appointee of the Health and Human Services (HHS) Department rather than directly to the CDC. HHS will then (after reviewing the data) share relevant info with the CDC.
Looking like so far it’s as bad as I feared. Data transition has happened, but the administration isn’t sharing data yet. What this means is that states no longer have access to their own data.
https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/local/investigations/watchdog/article244260242.html
Quoted from cottonm4:Looks like we can relax. HHS just blinked.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-07-16-20-intl/h_be4c6fadbe85b175f2edb1fcecc838e3
" HHS is committed to being transparent with the American public about the information it is collecting on the coronavirus. Therefore, HHS has directed CDC to re-establish the coronavirus dashboards it withdrew from the public on Wednesday. Going forward, HHS and CDC will deliver more powerful insights on the coronavirus, powered by HHS Protect," said Assistant Secretary of Public Affairs Michael Caputo. "
But the following statement is confusing regarding this July 14 statement.
" As of now, the previously removed dashboard modules were back online. The CDC has also added language to their page announcing that they will not be updating this data past July 14. "
I don’t think it’s a blink quite yet. Sure CDC web modules go back up, but the data is still being fed first to HHS and then HHS will feed it to CDC. As of today, no publicly facing data has been fed to CDC since the changeover.
So all we have as of now is historical CDC data.
As a fun convenient aside, HHS Protect is the data management aggregator now in charge. Conveniently designed by Palantir for HHS. If that name doesn’t raise alarm bells for you...it should.
Everything is fine:
“ Florida Emergency Operations Center closes after 12 employees test positive for COVID-19”
This model has consistently been optimistic. At the time of this posting it is predicting 200,000 deaths for 2020:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
This model has been roughly as pessimistic as the other has been optimistic. It is predicting 800,000 deaths:
Likely outcome somewhere in between.
We are boned.
Certain folks are talking up hydroxy again.
Sorry folks, it still is ineffective as a preventative or as a treatment.
https://www.wired.com/story/hydroxychloroquine-still-doesnt-do-anything-new-data-shows/amp
And thanks to the beetles we won’t even have that anymore.
What a world.
Quoted from cdnpinbacon:The only wall that should exist between Canada and the US are pine trees.
Quoted from Lame33:https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/utah-meeting-masks-cancelled-when-residents-without-masks-pack-room-n1234017
Some of the choice views from the public that filled the meeting about schools and masks by not wearing masks or social distancing.
“We are perpetuating a lie,” one woman who said she has five grandchildren said. “COVID is a hoax. It’s a lie. It’s a political stunt," The Salt Lake Tribune reported.
A mother suggested that masks cut down on a person’s oxygen, and a father said COVID-19 is no different than the flu, according to the Tribune.
Another parent of two children, ages 10 and 3, said she is concerned that wearing a mask would teach her older child to fear the world and that both of her kids would not learn proper socialization if their faces were covered, the Tribune reported.
“It’s going to rewire their brains,” the mother said. “I’m especially not going to send my son back to have his mind broken.”
Are we giving more crazy people access to the global megaphone or have they just always been here?
Pretty much all those conspiracies have been spouted in this thread. Some extensively.
I see your 1 interesting and raise you 3300 interestings (extra pneumonia deaths over average April-May)
Quoted from cottonm4:Sometimes I can be a little slow on the uptake.
I looked up Palantir:
"What does Palantir do?
Palantir is in the national security business. ... That's what Palantir software is designed to do. It collects and synthesizes the data, helping government employees stop plots before they're carried through to execution.
I think I have got it now. HHS gets all of the new data, massages and manages it before we get the reconstituted mash that will show very little.
Isn't that sort of like what China did a few weeks ago? if you don't like the data then you hide it?
Like OLDPINGUY says, we have an election coming up.
Now you’re smelling what the Rock is cooking.
But putting aside that concern, I also have a real issue with messing with data collection processes of any sort in the middle of a crisis. You don’t like the current process and want to improve it, have at it. Just don’t do it now.
I am training my kids that Daddy school is never on holiday but also not very long per day.
Will see how far ahead or behind we are by December. Right now I am running up the score while I can.
So for all the doubters, how far over the actual numbers do you think the reported numbers are? 5%? 20%?
How much does it matter to you? Does it make the hospitals less crowded? The extra body bags superfluous?
As I have mentioned before, the most accurate analyses will come after this is all said and done and will compare the baseline expected number of death range to the actual number of deaths to produce a range of covid related deaths.
There have been a couple attempts at this to date and so far they are finding on the order of tens of thousands more deaths than anticipated based on historical averages + recorded covid deaths.
There have been coding errors. There will be more. However on the whole 10 years from now, what you will likely find is that the current official numbers are a conservative undercount.
Yep. Keeping kids home from school. If not for their health, then for their infant sibling and my own.
Large South Korea study shows that kids do indeed spread the virus. Under 10 yrs old do it less. 10-18 yr olds basically on par with adults.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-children-schools.html
Quoted from phil-lee:Remember too many uncomfortable Studies done not too long ago, remember the one that a majority of cases were transmitted by those/to those who stayed at home?
1. Results not borne out upon further study. Majority? Please.
Quoted from phil-lee:Forced isolation has minimal effect.
2. Social distancing has huge impact
Quoted from phil-lee:The Downvote Brigade can have all the fun they obviously love, Super Karens in action.
3. You are using it wrong.
. “Don’t bother with masks we are all going to catch it anyway”
Aka
“Don’t bother with the tourniquet, the bleeding will stop eventually”
Paraphrasing:
“Eh sure the kids will get it and transmit it to surrounding adults. What’s the problem?”
Hand Sanitizers:
FDA has expanded the list to 59 products containing methanol Seems like the danger list is growing by the day.
https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-updates-hand-sanitizers-methanol
Quoted from skink91:Dead / #Cases * 100 = fatality %
(143,792 / 3,960,583) x 100 = 3.63%
These are only USA figures, which are actually lower/better than the global death percentage.
Maybe he is talking about the IFR (infection fatality rate) which in the case of covid the conventional wisdom is to divide the above by 10.
Also, with case loads exploding and deaths a lagging indicator, it isn’t very accurate to compare today’s total death to today’s total infection.
Expected Deaths
USA Infected Population vs. CFR
____ 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0%
10% 163,000 327,000 654,000 1,308,000
25% 408,000 817,000 1,635,000 3,270,000
50% 817,000 1,635,000 3,270,000 6,540,000
75% 1,226,000 2,453,000 4,905,000 9,810,000
Quoted from phil-lee:A condom with a 30-70% effective rate is rejected as defective. The comfort from seeing one put on is illusory.
And if you can get on base 30-70% of the time you are a hall of famer.
My point is it’s Apples and oranges comparing sperm vs viruses.
Viral load is a factor.
Washing your hands doesn’t eliminate 100% of all germs and viruses on your hands, so I guess we shouldn’t bother with that either?
Deaths continue to rise. Over 1000 a day now.
Quoted from Oaken:Give it 4 more weeks.
Or 3 weeks as it were.
Quoted from CrazyLevi:That’s an even more
Awesome part. Building is 100 year old tenement just like my current one (120 years old).
But it’s second floor so only
One flight of stairs. AND my downstairs neighbor is a frame shop so for once in my life I can plop my sweet vintage advents speaker on the floor without bothering anybody. Everything about this place is awesome
I’m so fucking psyched.
View is nice too more old buildings across the street and windows in front and back do plenty of daylight and nice view of 9th Avenue and the sky.
They gave us the keys early.
[quoted image]
There is so much about city folk I will never understand, but if you’re happy, I’m happy.
Hello suburbia my old friend.
Even before covid I had trouble knowing what day it was. Now? Forget it.
I question where am I daily as well.
Quoted from mcluvin:I was going to suggest asking him to count down from 100 by 7 just to be sure.
A Yale professor put together a quickie Immunology 101 Tutorial in case people are curious.
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1285944893085491204?s=20
Quoted from Who-Dey:Line up boys and get injected with something that you have no idea what it is! Don't worry about what may happen to you down the road, it’ll be just fine! We’re the gubberment, you can trust us!
Don’t get me wrong, I am very pro vaccine in general but I am very concerned about mass use of inadequately tested vaccines.
And with the vaccines...you have traditional approaches and you have novel approaches. I am far more concerned about fast tracking the modified RNA Moderna approaches that have zero safety/efficacy track records.
All the big boys are taking a parallel approach of testing and manufacturing as opposed to a serial approach. This is risky from a business standpoint, but that’s why governments are saying they will foot the bill if it doesn’t pan out. That’s one part of getting a 2 yr vaccine in 6 months. Not too concerned about that from safety standpoint. My primary concern from this approach is you can only do so many things in parallel before you become less efficient from a time perspective (too many cooks in the kitchen).
So let’s say they pick the Top 5 and it’s actually the 6th that turns out to be the winner. All that manufactured product doesn’t work for 6th so it gets scratched. Did putting it on the back burner slow it down more than doing things the normal way? 
Quoted from solarvalue:Let's not forget that, although these vaccines are being fast-tracked, they are still undergoing extensive human trials. So, unless you are participating in a trial, you're not going to be among the first to get a vaccine.
Yes, but:
It’s going to take a lot more than 30,000 volunteers in order to have an acceptable confidence interval on adverse reactions in a group of 1,000,000. Traditional vaccine development methods can use a “similar to” argument to previous medicines to help produce this confidence interval without additional testing.
For the new medicine approaches, they cannot use a similar to argument (since it is an entirely new approach). It will be interesting to see how they calculate/justify their margin of safety.
It’s kinda like building airplanes. As long as the new model is similar to a previous model, you can either skip entirely or do a limited testing protocol. Works very well nearly all the time. Big problems crop up if you apply the approach incorrectly. Just ask Boeing.
Must run segment for a slew of local tv stations. Gives a platform to the plandemic conspiracy theorist to smear Fauci.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/24/media/sinclair-fauci-conspiracy-bolling/index.html
How many children need to die or have serious side effects before the schools are shutdown.
I would argue 1 is 1 too many.
Quoted from Who-Dey:Just shop online and your problem is solved. The only negative thing about shopping online is it makes you lazy but I can deal with that.
That and having the stores pick the fruit and meats means you get the bruised and expiring in a day stuff.
Also, their substitutions can be...interesting.
(Full disclosure, I haven’t stepped foot in a store since April)
Quoted from sven:Though 1 may be always 1 too many, it's not as simple as that. How do you measure the damage that is done by all children not going to school (lack of education, social isolation) and measure the damage that is done by a death of a child and compare those? It's not that easy to draw conclusions. I'm not saying schools should open, but I do think it's too 'easy' to say one is always to many.
('Easy' is not the right word, but English not being my native language, I can't think how to put it better in other words right now).
Ps: I'm a teacher and I haven't decided yet if I think the reopening of schools in the Netherlands is a good thing, but I do think closing them did do damage to some children. I'm glad we don't have that many infected in the Netherlands, though that might easily go up again (infectionrate is rising a bit lately).
A good and necessary debate to be had for sure. 10,000 foot view is to determine which way does the least amount of harm. (Sneak peak of my top argument: Death is the ultimate harm).
Schools need to be safe spaces for both students and staff. As societies, we should do what is necessary to first make them safe before we open them up. Raging pandemic = not safe.
Quoted from RonSS:Wow. Did that take you all night?
Look up Project Mockingbird someday. Or perhaps Project MKUltra.
As I stated, not everything is a conspiracy, but there certainly have been "conspiracy theories" that have been dead on correct.
In terms of Covid, I honestly don't "know". But here is a question.if masks are going to save us, why haven't we been using them for influenza? I realize this Covid is a Corona - SARS snake rat concoction, but seriously, why hasn't our US government at least hyped up wearing masks during flu season? Plenty of elderly die from it, no?
Sorry if I'm becoming the 4th person here to disrupt the thread. I just have questions. I'm not necessarily defending anyone, as was previously stated, just asking people to think a little. I've been wrong plenty of times in my life, but every once in a while a question pays off. Can't we have a civil discussion without mockery?
So again, why haven't we been mandated, or at least strongly urged, to wear masks during the flu season?
Re: flu
We have relatively good medicine.
We have relatively effective yearly vaccines.
We have residual immunity both at individual and herd levels.
Our hospital systems are sufficient for normal year sickness levels and can generally squeeze through a bad year.
Timing of when you are a spreader is drastically different.
Asymptomatic spread is low.
Even bad flu years do not remotely approach the damage covid does. Both in terms of needing to rent refrigerated morgue trucks and in potentially permanent disability.
That being said, you best believe my wife warns her susceptible patients and caregivers during flu season.
Quoted from RonSS:I agree on all of that, however, wouldn't a mask and never getting the flu be better than medicine, etc? Again, assuming it would cut the number of cases substantially - which I have no idea if it would.
It is recommended but often ignored.
Because freedom.
Congressman Louie Gohmert, a Texas Republican who has refused to wear a mask, has tested positive for the coronavirus
Quoted from Atari_Daze:Any interviews with people like this AFTER the fact, if they survive? That would be interesting.
They run the gambit. Two examples:
Boris Johnson moderated his tone and became a lot more humble after his stint in the hospital with covid.
Bolsonaro is completely unapologetic. Lost cause.
Quoted from Oaken:They run the gambit. Two examples:
Boris Johnson moderated his tone and became a lot more humble after his stint in the hospital with covid.
Bolsonaro is completely unapologetic. Lost cause.
Quoted from Oaken:Congressman Louie Gohmert, a Texas Republican who has refused to wear a mask, has tested positive for the coronavirus
And gohmert insisted on telling his staff IN PERSON that he was infected. I’m gonna go with lost cause on that one.
Quoted from RonSS:Government mandate, no. I suggested public service announcements or something similar. A public urging perhaps.
Look, I don't get a flu shot, but I wash my hands quite often and rarely touch my face. Id like to be up front about this. I completely believe this is a tremendous way to avoid illness. I also self distance anyone I see with what could be symptoms, so, again, completely agree.
What I'm thick about is why we think it's ok for the numbers below if a mask could lower them substantially. Again, I'm not looking for a mandate, just a change in norms/acceptance I guess.
Ok. Thanks for the replies. I am glad I could learn a few things and hopefully we'll all be well. Hopefully Covid shall soon pass and we can all get back to losing space in our houses from more machines!
The CDC estimated that from October 2019 - April 2020 there were:
40 million - 55 million flu illnesses
410,000 - 740,000 flu hospitalizations
24,000 - 62,000 flu related deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
This is not the flu.
This is not the flu.
This is not the flu.
Secretary of Education and the VP toured a private school in NC today to promote opening schools.
The kids wore masks. The teachers wore masks. The two authority figures...Maskless. But you know they had them because they were wearing them when they exited the plane earlier.
I mean, one of their arguments for opening schools is that it can be done safely if you use proper hygiene...and then they don’t use proper hygiene.
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article244557177.html
Quoted from BadBrad97:I hate to contradict you but wearing a mask all the time will not prevent the flu or Covid. Have you seen China in the last 10 years? Everyone wears a mask all the time. You are more likely to get any disease from touching a railing or handle than from someone coughing on you.
Strictly speaking from a covid standpoint (since this is the covid thread):
No. Just No.
Quoted from BobSacamano:What's the correct order we're supposed to be taking these in?
1) Hydroxychloroquine with breakfast
2) Bleach smoothie for lunch
3) Ultraviolet suppositories after dinner
4) silver solution nightcap
Be mindful of your information sources. Many sites of a certain persuasion will recycle/launder disinformation originally coming from these three Russian troll farm websites:
InfoRos.ru
Infobrics.org
OneWorld.press
Also, I am sure the number of faux news sources will continue to grow and amplify itself.
Quoted from RTR:Herman Cain checked all the boxes for "at risk" - 74 years old, male, prior chemo and stage IV cancer treatment probably compromised his immune system. He and everyone around him should have been wearing a mask. He should not have gone to the Tulsa rally, should have been distancing. He should have believed the scientists and facts on the ground.
Instead, one of his last public quotes - 2 days after he tested positive for Covid - was this, in regards to the Goveronor of South Dakota not requiring masks for the Mount Rushmore Rally:
"Masks will not be mandatory for the event, which will be attended by President Trump. PEOPLE ARE FED UP!" https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/herman-cain-hospitalized-with-covid-19.html
Sad and preventable.
E79FD34D-0721-48B4-9375-388FF7E55B24.jpegThis is so frustrating to me. I don’t know what’s worse 1)that people didn’t see this coming or 2) they just didn’t care.
Excerpt from today’s covid briefing in MN:
“... they have discovered that a person who attended the North Star Stampede rodeo in Itasca County last weekend has tested positive for COVID-19. The rodeo drew several thousand people, according to MDH.
"The person was infectious while at the event," Malcolm said Friday. "We know that there were many, many people at this event, so there’s certainly a possibility of other exposures.”
That didn’t take long. Tests positive after half of the first day of school.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/31/us/indiana-student-covid-positive-school/index.html
My sister might have to walk away from a tenured professorship if they do not grant her an emergency furlough/sabbatical. They already refused to allow her to do online only classes.
However, my nieces and nephews either have online primary school or their daycare is Covid closed.
Real economic costs to our collective incompetence.
Oh and one more article on kids and covid. Turns out that yep they can get it and yep they can give it just like the rest of us. It may not perma harm them as much (we still don’t know how bad it will be), but as with other infectious disease, the kids are the transmission vectors and will doom us all.
Quoted from jitneystand1:Based on what I have read there seems to be evidence that young children are not infected at and do not transmit at the same (much higher) rates as adults. These particular benefits of youth don’t seem to extend to teens and to a lesser degree preteens, so I can see the logic behind daycares being safer to open than post-elementary schools.
Decisions being made seem to be based more on economics than safety though, including when it comes to daycares.
False. Two recent studies have found young (under 5) to be at least just as transmissible as adults.
Quoted from phil-lee:1.3 million people marched in Germany to be free from oppressive covid restrictions. Looks like the MSM isn't really covering this story, as expected, since it doesn't follow the approved narrative.
They all will probably be written off as neo-nazis.
It was covered.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/01/world/berlin-germany-covid-19-protest-intl/index.html
If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
Passionate Facebook post from a teacher in Iowa.
https://m.facebook.com/barbara.baudino/posts/10221732561921368
For those that don’t want to click on a Facebook link, I have copied it below.
——————————
I didn’t want to do this but some of y’all need to hear it.
Stop invalidating teachers feelings about their safety. Stop using child abuse, food insecurity, and mental health to do it. That is some serious misdirection.
I work for the largest district in Iowa. A majority-minority district. I have a degree in social work, a Masters in counseling, and work in an elementary school. Let me tell you about what I do when I’m at work:
I sit and listen to kids tell me about this abuse you’re talking about. Physical abuse. Sexual abuse. Mental abuse. I have heard it all, and way more times than you want to know. Some kids are telling me for the first time. The first time they’ve told anyone. Other times are “Mrs. Hogan it’s happening again.” I make multiple mandatory reports a month to a DHS that is underfunded and whose social workers have overwhelming caseloads. Before we left in March I was doing suicide assessments nearly weekly. I have taken food and clothes from my house to bring it to students. I have to be the one that calls a Mom to tell her that her child has slits all over her wrists.
And I still won’t let you use this as a reason to force teachers and students back when it’s unsafe. THIS IS NOT ON TEACHERS.
The same politicians (hey, Reynolds) that want to hurriedly reopen schools under dangerous conditions are the same ones who always want to cut down and mismanage social services, mental health services, and their funding. They’re the same politicians who have FAILED the kids in my office. Do you want us to be a community school? Cause we are already trying and it sure would be a lot easier if we had the funding to do it.
Where’s all this talk when it’s not a pandemic? You guys know what often happens to these kids and families then? I sit with a mom after school and call every single homeless shelter in the area to find something for her and there is nothing. I listen to a mom cry after the mental health unit tells her there’s no bed for her child in crisis. And when she asks them and me what to do now, there’s no answer for her. Iowa is one of the worst states for mental health services in the country.
Do not come at teachers and schools. Their job is to educate. Mine is to help these kids and families and I’ll do home visits if I can, I will do my best to connect them with the resources they need and I know my colleagues will too.
The real problem is there are not adequate resources, even if we are in school. Not even close. COME AT YOUR GOVERNMENT FOR THAT. And do it when the pandemic is over too.
Large school district in Georgia already has 260 staff members infected or in quarantine...before students step foot in the buildings.
My favorite part about this is I was watching this with my wife and she goes “hey! That guy was my patient! “. Was her patient until he got a restraining order against him for bringing a gun into the clinic a week or so ago.
When explaining things to my children, I keep referring to the now as “in the land of covid” and in my head I hear Conan “in the year 2000”
Iowa Governor: schools must be in person or time spent will not count for state credit.
Me: this will end well.
Quoted from CrazyLevi:Seems we have this all well in hand and it’s totally under control.
It is what it is.
Quoted from Wolfmarsh:I think you are right.
Schools are just wishful thinking at this point.
Mississippi school (Corinth). One week open. 6 new positive cases. 116+ students and staff now in quarantine.
One. Week.
Quoted from phil-lee:But are they sick? Or just tested positive?
My wife is losing friends, colleagues, and former mentors left and right, so Please Stop with the sick or just positive nonsense.
Quoted from phil-lee:So you are in a hot spot? Where are you, I am surprised anyone knows this many people who have succumbed to corona.Were they older, have underlying (comorbidity) conditions?
I am not trying to be insensitive. Nobody around here knows anyone who has passed from this.
A lot is being asked of medical professionals. Many are getting sick. Many are dying. Even factoring for age, globally and locally, those that are constantly being exposed are dying at significantly higher rates than your average joe.
We do not directly work with all our friends, mentors, etc. but that doesn’t mean we still don’t keep in contact or remember them. A couple with three kids that we are close to from med school live way down in New Orleans. He is a radiologist, she is a pulmonary specialist. She caught it and survived. Was very scary for them, their kids, and their friends. She sees what this thing does first hand on a daily basis. Was careful. Wasn’t given proper PPE. Caught it.
A comparison: Truly is fun when you are asked to go into a burning building, but your unit is out of respirators so you are gonna have to just hold your breath or figure out something on your own.
My wife still gets 1 mask a week (that is intended for single use) and is lucky to have it. She has to bring her own cleaning supplies some days to wipe down door handles and the like.
If you go back thru the quotes, I was referring to your comment on a pinsider who was referring to the high infection rate of healthcare workers. Their point was if healthcare can’t do it, how can we expect schools to.
Quoted from jellikit:They could hire Hell's Angels to keep them out!
Seriously though, not much a small town can do. Festival can just move 10 feet out of town. if only they had a state gov willing to assist
Quoted from phil-lee:The Hells Angels went into the porn industry and wear suits and ride in limos. Lot more biker gangs out there now. Think back over the last few Months, people said after the protests or after the Rally or whatever there will be a distinctive spike.
There have been spikes but I have seen no evidence of a unique spike attributed to any of these events. If Germany doesn't display one in the next few weeks no one will.
What’s another exploding tanker truck on top of a raging wildfire right?
You mean the 1.5 million plus or minus 1.48 million Germany rally?
Quoted from o-din:It's been known for some time, but not being fat is a great way to increase your chances of not getting seriously ill from this virus.
They are saying obesity is the number one cause of serious complications. Which also helps explain why the USA is and will continue to be number one by a wide margin until this is over.
Obesity certainly doesn’t help matters, but too many healthy folks are having nasty residual effects. Marathon runners that can’t go up flights of stairs without being winded, that sort of thing. Sure they didn’t die but...yikes.
Also, they are already warning that obesity may make the vaccines ineffective. So there is that too.
Quoted from cottonm4:Amazing what shining some light does to make people reconsider their decisions.
The girl who was suspended from school for posting some photos of kids in school, crowding the halls, and not wearing masks has been re-admitted t school. Her record has been expunged.
https://www.kansas.com/news/coronavirus/article244799672.html
"High school backs off suspension of Georgia teen who posted photo of packed hallway"
" A Georgia high school has reversed the suspension of the student behind a viral “back to school” photo. "
" The photo thrust the metro-Atlanta school into the national spotlight, and Watters was handed a five-day, out-of-school suspension..."
" the principal of NPHS notified the students today that their suspensions have been rescinded and all records of the suspensions deleted,”
" This morning my school called and they have deleted my suspension,” she wrote. “To everyone supporting me, I can’t thank you enough.”
" “The principal just said that they were very sorry for any negative attention that this has brought upon her, and that in the future they would like for her to come to the administration with any safety concerns she has,” she told the outlet.
================================================================
No. The principal is sorry that a ton of shit rained down on him. And the next time he would prefer you keep your mouth shut.
Read more here: https://www.kansas.com/news/coronavirus/article244799672.html#storylink=cpy
Update: The school we were referring to just had 9 positive cases and is shutting down for a bit for a deep cleaning.
Covid and children stat data dump. Basically 40% growth in cases towards end of July. Almost 100,000 newly positive over two weeks. Right around the time of summer camps ending and some schools starting back up.
Quoted from PantherCityPins:Here’s the first day of school photo that this group of students in Georgia decided to take.
What could go wrong???[quoted image]
Another Georgia school district, another outbreak after 1 week of school. 800+ students and staff now in quarantine. This is in the same district that PantherCityPins referenced above.
Governor says “everything is fine”
The Russian vaccine has all the hallmarks of a disaster waiting to happen.
They tested 76 people and now are going into full production. That is a crazy low number that is just asking for hidden side effects or lack of effectivity to be revealed at scale.
Full production is 1.5 million doses a year...so Russia will be vaccinated by 2080.
The technique used in producing the vaccine is same as was used for a halted HIV vaccine. That one was halted because the evidence suggested that the medicine INCREASED transmission of HIV.
And so on.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/russia-s-approval-covid-19-vaccine-less-meets-press-release
Quoted from arcademojo:The tread has become just the same group of a dozen people repeating the same things over and over and over. I still pop in every now and then when it hits 100 new posts. But can only read the same thing so many times so just skip to the end.
Well on the bright side, at least pinside has managed to keep us quarantined here and not out infecting all the other threads.
Quoted from Who-Dey:Wear your mask, stay away from people and there is a 99% chance that you will be fine. You cant believe those numbers either im telling you.
Ok, but who is telling you? 
Quoted from chad:https://www.foxnews.com/health/face-masks-coronavirus-zoom-calls
I understand wearing a mask, but home alone just for a zoom meeting, sorry thats ridiculous.
I mean, I GET what they are trying to do there but....swing and a miss.
Quoted from noob-a-tron:Okay now can someone explain this. My partner works in Aged Care and she by law has to wear a mask and Shield. The residents do not wear a mask and do not have to by law. So how come we have to wear a mask on the street?
Quoted from solarvalue:Just a guess but it's right there in your question - they are residents of the aged care centre. In other words, they are in their home. You have to wear a mask on the street because you are leaving your place of residence.
This above and maybe a significant number of them have breathing difficulties that would be adversely affected by the masks?
Also masks primarily protect other people from you, so by forcing your partner to wear one they are prioritizing protecting the elderly from your partner.
Quoted from Who-Dey:Common Sense
Hard to argue against a belief or a feeling.
Not trying to play tricks on you, seriously, but could you ball park where your common sense says we actually are? I am curious how divergent our views are.
Quoted from Oaken:Another Georgia school district, another outbreak after 1 week of school. 800+ students and staff now in quarantine. This is in the same district that pinball_gizzard referenced above.
Governor says “everything is fine”
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-cases-lead-over-800-quarantine-georgia-school-district-where-n1236364
Update:
“In Cherokee County, where students returned to school last week, there are now at least 110 confirmed coronavirus cases, resulting in over 1,600 students and staff in quarantine.”
Good news! Saliva based test. 99% accurate. Open sourced. Uses common materials. Rapid test.
Oh, and it is dirt cheap.
Quoted from Gunnut40:100%. What have here is bunch of second hand data sheet nonsense. Are you collecting the data? Nope I’m getting off it a damn website. No wait see the Timmy graph it’s gotta be true! Pfft...
Wow. Just wow.
Do you or have you ever taken any medicine for any condition? How did you know that medicine was safe or effective? Did you do the case studies yourself or did you listen to the experts?
How do you have confidence that your pinball machine won’t explode or electrocute you? Did you do the material property and electrical shielding experiments or did you trust the regulations and company best practices to not send you flying across the room?
By your logic, nothing in life is real or to be trusted unless you do it yourself.
My understanding is that the facilities are only for those returning from abroad. Where are you seeing that they are reporting people being removed from their homes?
Quoted from rwmech5:Keeping an eye on New Zealand with "Quarantine Facilities" for new cases and close family members being removed from their residences and locked up. Is this for real with 60 cases?
Quoted from clg:Yes basically. If you test positive and don't have a good setup at home (must be approved by health officials) to isolate you will need to go to a quarantine facility aka a hotel where care, meals, etc are provided. The concern is that if one person tests positive in a crowded household it will spread to others and prolong the outbreak. Originally they were going to quarantine everyone but they shifted it to only people that don't have a good setup at home. This has proven a bit controversial but I can see why they did it given the current outbreak has hit some low income/high density households.
No cost for any of this to the people involved.
Ty for clearing that up
Per FDA, nationally we are still facing shortages of basic medical supplies, (gowns, gloves, masks, etc...). Tracks well with what my wife is personally experiencing in her hospital network.
Meet the new covid cure-all.
https://www.axios.com/trump-covid-oleandrin-9896f570-6cd8-4919-af3a-65ebad113d41.html
Being hyped up by MY Pillow guy. Total coincidence, but he has a financial stake in the supplement company.
A teacher in Kansas is trying to track Covid in schools. I’m betting Texas for starters is gonna be a headache to keep track of (state has said they won’t separate keep track of school cases).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/17/coronavirus-schools-reopening-teacher-spreadsheet/
Quoted from arcademojo:BINGO!!!!!
Just found out today the kid at my work that tested positive was a kid at one of the parties.
Another article on those unfortunate to have long term effects. Fun thing is they tend to be mostly healthy, relatively young (early to mid 40s) and women.
Kind of the opposite of the death statistics of tending to be pre-existing condition, relatively old, and men.
Quoted from 7oxford:I’d say locally New Zealanders are a little bemused by the attention they are getting.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122521091/coronavirus-us-president-donald-trump-ignores-the-facts-data-around-new-zealands-covid19-response
I enjoyed that article. This chart midway through is a brutal summary.
DD7F370C-BCFF-48E1-9B99-53F6A664FF76 (resized).jpegSt. Olaf College
Benefit of being a small private college is you can test everyone and whack em with a mallet if they get out of line.
That being said, it will be interesting if they can keep a lid on things going forward. My money is on them going online only by Halloween. Compare this to Notre Dame which is a huge private university that lasted less than 2 weeks of in person learning before going online only.
Quoted from zombywoof:To be fair, these are largely meaningless comparisons. New Zealand has far fewer people than New York City alone. Plus, they are an island and easily closed travel early on. I’m not making excuses for the bozo federal response in the U.S., but come on.
The graph is normalized for population...
Yes, island state with far easier border control and unified centralized government vs USA, but I can make these charts all day with USA vs any country of your choice and by and large the USA will come out the loser.
I fondly / fuzzily remember driving over the border to get booze once a month or so because of the difference in drinking age. No hassle at Canadian border (they either just waved us through or stopped us to briefly ask how our day was going) and only had to show our MI drivers licenses on the way back into the states.
It was a simpler time.
Quoted from EJS:You forgot about those killer hornets everyone was talking about for a hot minute.
Don’t worry. We got this. Release the swarm!
Must have missed this in the noise but, KFC has changed their slogan from “it’s Finger licking good” to “it’s good” due to the pandemic.
A PSA to please wear your helmets while ATVing.
My wife’s last patient today came into the clinic instead of the hospital because he was worried about covid (and fear of hospitals in general I would guess).
His official reason for the visit was for a headache. My wife took one look and said “I see pieces of your skull sticking out and a chunk missing. that’s no headache”. Sent him for scans. The radiologist called and said he needed to be transferred to a specialist hospital. My wife said he was a walk in and refused to go to the ER and went home. Radiologist was shocked the dude was walking.
My wife has a strong stomach, but she had no appetite tonight.
There is reasonable fear of covid and hospitals....and then there is insanity.
Quoted from OLDPINGUY:Florida Department of Health claims number of COVID-19 cases in schools is confidential.
WTF!?!
https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020/08/28/florida-department-of-health-claims-number-of-covid-19-cases-in-schools-is-confidential/
Is this happening in your state?
Testing is down 8.75% Average, and up to 20% in others, in Free Testing availability.
It is my understanding that Texas is doing something similar (not breaking out school data).
Given how Iowa was with the meat packing plants, wouldn’t surprise me if they do something similar.
FDA head says he is receptive to granting emergency authorization to vaccines before trials are completed.
Lots of risk with this approach. If it works fantastic, if there are unforeseen side effects or lack of effectivity, then it is an unnecessary catastrophe.
https://www.ft.com/content/f8ecf7b5-f8d2-4726-ba3f-233b8497b91a
Quoted from Chrizg:The updated CDC data reveals that only 6% of the tiny percentage of deaths, of the tiny percentage of people actually testing positive, of the tiny percentage of people actually getting tested for COVID-19, listed COVID-19 as the sole cause of death.
Only 6%. That is 9683 deaths from only COVID.
6% is what we have shut our entire lives down for. This is direct from the CDC. Not news media or your political candidate.
This is ridiculous
Stop with the lockdowns and restrictions
“Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. For data on comorbidities,”
Again - For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3jRh-jj1JmKJdpsSaLip6pwfUPAHSr_-RlWmeC6IMJvJBehxygxq0bhvc
At best, you’re interpreting the data wrong. Very very wrong. At worst you are being deceptive or have been deceived.
But let’s pretend you did it mostly right. If covid can only kill you if you are weakened by another disease and 180,000+ and counting have died that normally wouldn’t be expected to....how the hell do you come to the conclusion of “its no big deal” instead of “wow, we are a really sick populace” ?
Quoted from Oaken:At best, you’re interpreting the data wrong. Very very wrong. At worst you are being deceptive or have been deceived.
But let’s pretend you did it mostly right. If covid can only kill you if you are weakened by another disease and 180,000+ and counting have died that normally wouldn’t be expected to....how the hell do you come to the conclusion of “its no big deal” instead of “wow, we are a really sick populace” ?
Oh hey would you look at that. Turns out is was conspiracy drivel, false information, Chrizg was spouting.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/twitter-removes-trump-tweet-false-coronavirus-statistics/
Quoted from Who-Dey:Serious question. If they came out with a vaccine today would you take it? I for one would not take this rushed vaccine.
Depends on who approved it. Our FDA? Fuck no.
Quoted from BobSacamano:Why do you need a vaccine if Hydroxychloroquine is the cure?
I thought the My Pillow guy had an herbal supplement cure.
Or convalescent plasma.
Or silver solution.
Or those bleach tablets.
Or herd immunity.
So many cures, so little time.
Tough choices and, while I disagree, I respect PantherCityPins decision.
Every school district and family will have its own unique situation. The problem is expecting the districts to manage the problem without additional support. Many districts will be looking at increased costs and decreased funding...when many were already hanging on by a shoe string. This has led to an inconsistent chaotic mess at the macro scale that I suspect will only get worse.
For my own unique situation my decision to keep my kiddo home was influenced by:
1) I have a toddler and a baby at home. Especially concerned about baby getting it.
2) I am high risk.
3) my wife would have to quarantine/miss work.
4) if we quarantine, there is an issue of who will take care of my elderly inlaws.
5) my oldest is 1st grade and I don’t trust the classmates to maintain safety protocols.
6) cases in the county have slowly but surely been creeping up in the county. We started the summer in the “green” zone for school reopening (no restrictions) but are now on the other edge of “yellow” (full hybrid or full stay at home, your choice).
While I greatly fear my oldest’s social skills, physical skills (swimming gym etc) will suffer long term effects, I am confident that I can teach her math, science, reading, etc...
Was an obvious choice for us to keep kids home. Doesn’t mean it was an easy choice.
Re: USA universities reopening for in person classes
TL:DR mitigation plans were insufficient / was a bad idea
On a personal note, my wife had to fire another couple patients yesterday who refused to wear masks and got abusive when told they had to per company policy.
On the upside, people with copd have a hard time maintaining an angry diatribe. Downside...lots of spittle still.
A few months back it was “doctors are our heroes”. Today it is “ screw you and your face diaper mandates”
Quoted from Who-Dey:Serious question. If they came out with a vaccine today would you take it? I for one would not take this rushed vaccine.
Quoted from Oaken:Depends on who approved it. Our FDA? Fuck no.
To further clarify, the only way to get a vaccine “today” is if manufacturers are granted emergency use and get to skip completing Phase 3 testing.
Here is a review by the fda from a few years ago as to why that is a bad idea.
IHME model projection has been updated. This is the model that in general has been overly optimistic about pretty much everything. Still though, it is a well known model that many in power have used or cited. A quote:
We expect the daily death rate in the United States, because of seasonality and declining vigilance of the public, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December. Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 410,000; this is 225,000 deaths from now until the end of the year
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/estimation-updates-united-states
Quoted from cottonm4:Well, the case rate is not going up. But it is not really going down, either. And winter is coming.
[quoted image]
Same thing. We are sort of going sideways. But we are a long way from zero. And winter is coming.
[quoted image]
# tests per day is getting a bit wonky too.
Edit: For instance, look at Alabama. They have dramatically decreased their testing whilst their cases are going up...meaning their positivity rate is 90%.
90 freakin percent. That is some powerful “if I don’t see it, it will go away” wishful thinking.
Quoted from mrm_4:The morning commute to work is going to be great in 2022.
Well look at you Mr. Positive thinking you will have a place to commute to.
Quoted from Gunnut40:Data pffft....bull butter! Let’s see I’ll look it up on google. Motorcycle wreak Covid 19 death if I ever did see one. Checked into Covid test site clearly infected! The virus is real the data is not. Wear your mask and stay safe!
Trying to read this and all I see is:
Quoted from Daditude:The 11.3% is calculated out of the total tests people are taking, if I'm reading it correctly.
So if 1000 people got tested, 113 tested as positive.
Also, a general rule of thumb: if you have a positivity rate over 8-10%, then you really don’t have a handle on the extent of infection in your community, let alone trying to control it. Under 5% means you have a chance at controlling the outbreak without severe measures.
Don’t worry, the data isn’t real or something.
At least that’s what I think was being said in that grammatical and logical horror show a few posts back.
Don’t believe the news. Don’t believe the numbers. Just go out and party right? /sarcasm
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/3-deaths-147-coronavirus-cases-now-tied-maine-wedding-n1239353
Since Sturgis is still in the news, here’s an academic study of the predicted health and economic costs.
Ball park numbers. Rally predicted to cause at least 250,000 new infections and $12 billion in economic damage.
Quoted from Trogdor:Did anybody look at the 63 pages? Their “activity” map shows only a high moderate level from southeast Wisconsin- the birthplace of Harley?! Suspect data. They also use an average case expense of $46k! It isn’t $12b in healthcare cost, they are estimating the value of functional loss from another German study using our dept. of trans. data but not respecting our conclusions. But if people aren’t working, we already LOST this money.. And how many of these people are retired anyway? How could we have even $46k in loss if 80% of cases are asymptomatic and maybe 95% return to work after 11 days? Let’s calculate economic damage from 100m people not working for 6 months..
If you look at the Safegraph sample charts on their site, there is a huge increase in foot traffic at Mexican restaurants during the same period. Hmmm Sturgis or too many people getting Margaritas and making bad Corona jokes? Actually, foot traffic at most types of restaurants, shopping, and industry- around the country!-was up during this period. Can you now attribute 20% of 1.9m cases in US- is this entire US or just cherry picked counties that they saw a rise in cases?- to Sturgis? Seems a stretch with everything in US going on at this time.
Sturgis wasn’t a great idea but it is amazing any news outlet picked up this “story”. It also noted that Sturgis did actually stress PPE and social distancing.
No, don’t own a motorcycle.
Couple of comments:
For better or worse they used sampling from cell phone data tracking and then attempted to take into account over/undersampling of regions/groups. This is how statistics is supposed to work. I am open to criticisms about how they corrected their dataset.
(Edited out this section on forward thinking. I thought the study was looking forward and predicting future cases. I was wrong.)
Per their own technique they tried to be conservative by not accounting for deaths. There are actuarial techniques to account for, on average, how much the life of a 10 yr old, 25 yr old, 50 yr old, 100 yr old are worth. They didn’t dive into that as best o can tell.
They did use the average covid hospital stay cost and the ratio of covid cases to hospitalizations in their calculations. healthcare in the states is pricey. Ventilator care is crazy expensive. Doesn’t take more than a few of those to tilt the average cost higher.
————————————————-
Don’t misunderstand me, I am not part of the study nor necessarily defending it. I am just trying to discuss it and clarify a few things.
Not to change the subject too much, but it looks like there is more bad news for the convalescent plasma treatment.
Conclusion: it didn’t help anyone in a statistically meaningful way.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.03.20187252v1.full.pdf
Quoted from RonSS:Just read this:
"The number of cases estimated in the study differs significantly from the number of cases tied to the rally reported by the South Dakota Department of Health. As of Tuesday, the state reported 124 cases among South Dakota residents who got sick after attending the rally.
The Associated Press as of last week identified 290 cases from 12 states tied to the rally."
From here:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/09/08/study-260-000-coronavirus-cases-likely-tied-sturgis-rally/5750587002/
Well yeah. Majority of people came from outside SD, so the SD health dept can’t be expected to accurately track all that. SD is seeing a spike in positivity. Again if you are where SD is at (around 20% positive tests), it means you are not managing the problem and basically have no idea how bad the spread is in the community. .
We do know from other super spreader events how this thing generally propagates.
States in general are doing a piss poor job at contact tracing even before Sturgis
An exception is Maine, which is doing a pretty good of contact tracing that wedding. Look at where they are at now something like 200 cases and counting tied back to that relatively small event.
Quoted from oldskool1969:Is this China virus really that bad as the percentage of infected that die as a DIRECT result of it seems very very low.
I understand it created complications with underlying health issues, but surely those that are compromised take extra care, yes I am one of them. The world has stopped long enough IMO.
You are using loaded words there. Racist, widely debunked, derided, Qanon conspiracy bullshit.
Assuming you did not intend this then to answer your question, yes this virus really is that bad. In the states it will be the third highest cause of death this year at a minimum. It also maims too. We still have no clue how badly or how permanently yet.
Quoted from oldskool1969:Is this China virus really that bad as the percentage of infected that die as a DIRECT result of it seems very very low.
I understand it created complications with underlying health issues, but surely those that are compromised take extra care, yes I am one of them. The world has stopped long enough IMO.
Here are a couple articles on the heart damage covid-19 can cause. As PantherCityPins has pointed out, it is not unusual for some infections to cause temporary mycarditis. The concern with covid-19 is the extent of the damage and whether it is temporary or permanent.
This one is a bit alarmist, but is recent and does have some good summary as well:
https://news.yahoo.com/post-covid-heart-damage-alarms-researchers-there-was-a-black-hole-in-infected-cells-172015067.html
Penn State doctor is seeing a good portion of athletes with evidence of damage. Still concerning, but walking back some of the alarmist rhetoric. :
https://6abc.com/coronavirus-heart-damage-athletes-penn-state-covid-19/6408854/
More in depth:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-19-can-wreck-your-heart-even-if-you-havent-had-any-symptoms/
Quoted from Trogdor:So if a banana is not a banana? Did you read the study? Again, the STUDY used the BLM protests as an example of an innocuous public meeting. Milwaukee had days of people driving around in cars for protests(nothing says outrage more then driving around, honking your horn) and we are assuming they all quarantine together, right? Didn’t Mayor DeBlasio order tracers not to ask people if they attended a protest? I wonder if they did use these crap analytics for the protests, what numbers would they get? Yes, there were way more then 400k protesters around country. Sturgis was a superb opportunity for study and these jokers botched it and it was picked up all over. Assuming it actually was 400k(SD used traffic data which doesn’t specify if novel rider) and they all behaved exactly the same, is not science. If it was not intended to be accurate, what were their intentions?
As U Madison and U of I Champagne are locking down, which made less sense? Bikers or university administrators? 1000 cases at Madtown in about two weeks. UI was on CNBC a couple weeks ago with an amazing all in-house testing protocol and all was going well until nobody enforced quarantine of positive students! And anybody arguing Sturgis was frivolous and UMadtown are people looking to improve themselves has not gone down Langdon St. I get it- college kids should be at school and this sucks.
Article Tuesday in WSJ states 0.6% death rate for those that get the virus. I wish somebody did an article on how this is computed with 80% asymptomatic.
I still think the study has value but I agree that after further inspection it warrants some criticism.
0.6% death rate would still be over a million dead for theoretical herd immunity. Here is a table I posted 3 months ago:
Quoted from Oaken:Current CFR is 3.4 FYI. Use 75% infection rate for rough Herd immunity guesstimate.
Even if CFR drops significantly...still ouch. [quoted image]
Estimate from way back in Feb timeframe was 0.5-5.0% which still contributed to the global shutdown decisions. What is truly nasty is the % hospitalized. Back in Jan we knew this can overwhelm local healthcare networks and this still is true today. If there is a large outbreak in your area, the hospitals will be overrun. This is a primary reason for the shutdowns way back when.
Quoted from Who-Dey:What do you suggest we do? All a person can do is try to protect themselves from this which in the end probably wont matter anyways because unless you live like a total hermit you will eventually most likely get this virus.
Today for whatever reason I saw more people ignoring the mask rules than I ever have. I wanted to yell at them and tell them how F'ing stupid they are but I really didnt feel like getting in a fight today. I wish the stores would enforce this but they wont.
Dude was peddling the same ole “no big deal” bullshit we have seen since January.
What do I suggest? How about we all acknowledge the severity of this thing, listen to the freaking scientists, and follow the recommendations instead of vilifying them and going around shouting “fuck China” and “‘Merica wooooo”.
That would be a fantastic start.
I wrote the above early this morning and just now saw this article in my news feed. Their words are more eloquent than mine, but same basic principle.
Quoted from Bryan_Kelly:It's just not worth commenting on mask wearing. It's just not.
My sister in law stopped at a small local restaurant to pick up her order the other night. When she walked in, none of the workers had masks, although they were all required to in MN. She made some comment about them not having masks. One worker's reply and I quote, "fuck you. Do you want your food or not?"
Her reply and I quote, "no thanks. You can shove it up your ass," and she walked out.
My wife and I have thought about trying that place. We have no desire to now.
In past 10 years practicing medicine, my wife has had to fire about a half dozen people for being abusive / making threats. 2 of them got restraining orders.
In past 6 months, it’s been around 3 dozen that I know of, with 6 restraining orders. She basically just only mentions it now when the cops are called. Nothing like having someone wave a gun in your face to try and prove that it is more dangerous than their cough.
Before it was mostly mentally ill people having a violent episode. Now it is brainwashed internet trolls wanting to martyr themselves.
Quoted from Who-Dey:I will never stop saying F China ever. I do realize the severity of this also but I also don't quite think it's as bad as some of you here Think that it is. That's just my opinion and I'm not trying to debate it. I personally know of three people who have died from it in my area. I also know several people who work in different hospitals and it's just not a huge problem in my area. I still take it very serious and do my best to protect myself and others. I personally believe that this very politically motivated though.
Are you familiar with the phrase “cognitive dissonance”?
Also, care to explain to me what exactly are Fauci’s sinister ulterior motives? Or the New England Journal of Medicine? Or the British Journal of Medicine? Or pretty much any reputable scientific society? Do you think that they are all in this giant global cabal whose sole goal is to give you and yours the sads?
Consider that maybe just maybe they are trying to yank our collective hands out of the fire.
Quoted from Who-Dey:Because of things like this.....
https://www.aier.org/article/the-sturgis-bike-rally-sensationalist-reporting-and-broken-disease-models/
So, you won’t trust health policy experts, epidemiologists, doctors, etc writ large because of a Ayn Rand economic think tank?
Talk about a biased news source there buddy.
Quoted from Gunnut40:Hey dude! Put down those beakers of koolaid down! Pour that stuff out and put some ice cold beer into it. Those fake numbers will make more sense. Just saying.
I will pose the same question to you that I did to who-dey awhile back. If the numbers are false, can you ballpark for me what you think the real numbers are? What is your source?
From who-Dey I got “a lot less” and “my gut”.
Quoted from noob-a-tron:Science goal posts shift all the time.
As they should. That’s how science works!
New information, new research, leads to new best practices.
Quoted from Gunnut40:Has nothing to do with my gut. What I want to know is how the data is being collected. What standards are used for collecting it? Do they they test a person who had a heart attack? Do they count retested people as more positives? Most data is easy to change.
Want to see the real number of deaths? If Covid is really effecting us? Take the number of normal deaths from last year. Minus from what we have this year.
I believe the quote goes “We go to war with the army we have, not the army we want.” Or something like that. So yeah the data isn’t perfect but it is what we got.
You past comments imply that you think the numbers are being inflated. What I am asking you is if the numbers are so shitty, what do you think the real numbers are, ball park. What is your source of this truer data?
As far as deaths. Agreed on the accurate count after the fact. There have been a few articles on this already as a snapshot of how we have been doing up to a given date. I have linked a few of these previously. Bottom line, we are woefully undercounting deaths. There are a significant number of deaths above the average range + reported covid deaths. I think at last count for USA it is something like 10% more deaths than average+covid.
Quoted from Gunnut40:Hmmm. Looks like we are doing the same as last year. In fact we might be doing a little bit better.
[quoted image]
Went to macro trends website. It says in big bold letters:
Note all 2020 and later data are UN projections and DO NOT include any impacts of the COVID-19 virus
Quoted from Gunnut40:Awwww that’s the best y’all can do? Bring on the heat. I’ll make some s’mores with it.
I guess you can lead a horse to water...
Quoted from chad:Of course there will be no you didn't, Yes I did finger pointing . But interesting...
https://nypost.com/2020/09/14/chinese-virologist-posts-report-claiming-covid-19-was-made-in-wuhan-lab/
That particular scientist has been making these sorts of claims from the beginning. She recently wrote a non peer reviewed research paper with her evidence. She no longer works at her former lab or has direct access to her data, so any evidence she has was at best smuggled to her.
Having recently myself jumped the gun on posting a non peer reviewed research paper, I will allow the scientific community time to respond this time.
Having said that, the body of the research to date and the scientific agreement assertively refutes her position.
Quoted from pinmeds:The thing that blows my mind is how many people would believe there was a conspiracy involving every single Health Care worker, from the nurses and orderlies, the doctors, management, etc. (the odd Demon Spermer excluded), the entire Government of every country (working together without any disagreement or variance from the master plan) on the planet from the top down, all World Health organizations, everyone in every form of Media (same Demon Spermer exclusion), and not a single one cracked, even on their deathbed, or to family members, and not one piece of evidence has slipped out. What percentage of people do you know that can keep their mouth shut for any amount of time, even for small secrets?
Read your comment and was reminded of this article and paper from a few years back about a proposed equation regarding mass conspiracies and the likelihood of them holding up over time.
Fun stuff.
https://phys.org/news/2016-01-equation-large-scale-conspiracies-quickly-reveal.html
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905
Tl:dr conspiracies rapidly fall apart and will invariably be exposed as more people are in on the conspiracy.
Quoted from Oaken:That particular scientist has been making these sorts of claims from the beginning. She recently wrote a non peer reviewed research paper with her evidence. She no longer works at her former lab or has direct access to her data, so any evidence she has was at best smuggled to her.
Having recently myself jumped the gun on posting a non peer reviewed research paper, I will allow the scientific community time to respond this time.
Having said that, the body of the research to date and the scientific agreement assertively refutes her position.
Quoted from Who-Dey:On a side note its coming out that this virus was created in a Wuhan laboratory and that it was intentionally released by the Chinese government....just as I expected the whole time.
Not looking too good for this report. It wasn’t published in a scientific journal. It was published at a think tank associated with Steve Bannon.
Quoted from Powdevil:...hmmm.. the New York Post news is considered moderately conservative. The New York Times and the New Yorker are far left wing biased. People need to focus on getting their news from unbiased sources. This goes for people leaning left as well as right.
New York Times opinion vs. news
Fox News opinion vs news
Etc...
The news sections are moderate. The opinion sections are the extremities.
At least in the Times and other print media it’s easy for the reader to distinguish the two sections.
TV, not so much.
Re: that China virologist paper. FYI twitter also took down her account, likely due to her spreading misinformation. Here is another hot take:
The claims in the paper were rejected by the wider scientific community. "[The] report cannot be given any credibility in its current form," Andrew Preston, who is an expert in microbial pathogenesis at the U.K.'s University of Bath.
Quoted from chad:Of course there will be no you didn't, Yes I did finger pointing . But interesting...
https://nypost.com/2020/09/14/chinese-virologist-posts-report-claiming-covid-19-was-made-in-wuhan-lab/
from the NY Post itself, a rebuttal article.
https://nypost.com/2020/09/16/us-virologists-dispute-chinese-whistleblowers-covid-19-claim/
As it currently stands, her claims have as much scientific validity as those that continue to tout hydroxy as a cure-all.
Quoted from Oaken:from the NY Post itself, a rebuttal article.
https://nypost.com/2020/09/16/us-virologists-dispute-chinese-whistleblowers-covid-19-claim/
As it currently stands, her claims have as much scientific validity as those that continue to tout hydroxy as a cure-all.
And one more nail in the coffin:
https://mobile.twitter.com/itsbirdemic/status/1305712026929508353
Quoted from Trogdor:Hey- did you read the rebuttal? Virologists agreed with her process, not the conclusion. They can’t disprove her either. She actually has some scientific chops. As do countless scientists that proved the use of hydroxy for many illnesses, just not SARS2. But, as she will unfortunately learn, selling or accepting money from conservative sources will get you ostracized from an ever increasing liberal scientific community. We had mass pollution when business dominated science, where will the new age take us?
How would you prove this is man-made? After first infections, many possibly man made components will be replaced by parts from the hosts cells. Translational errors and other mutations make it unbelievably difficult once several waves of infections. Unless a whistleblower escapes from these high security labs with an initial sample, seems impossible. I’m sure us pinsiders can figure it out.
Disagreeing with the conclusions is kinda the whole ball game when her conclusion is it was man made.
Also the sequencing of the virus is publicly available to all. Not her or her “teams” exclusive research. Her “proof” was reinterpretation of established, peer reviewed, repeatable, science.
So basically you argue that there is a mass conspiracy across the entire global science community, across academia, private, and government labs instead of it being a conspiracy of a handful of folks with an axe to grind?
Also it is her claim that it is man made not mine. The onus is on her to prove it not me. You say it cannot be proven. How convenient to make a claim that you state cannot be proven or disproven. In other words, that is bad science but great politics.
Edit: and finally. She didn’t work in wuhan! She worked with hamsters in Hong Kong! She didn’t “escape” a high security lab let alone “the” lab accused of being the source. These scientists aren’t prisoners being forced to do research at gunpoint. Her access to the source code is pretty much the same as every other single scientist on earth.
Quoted from Trogdor:But, as she will unfortunately learn, selling or accepting money from conservative sources will get you ostracized from an ever increasing liberal scientific community.
Was chewing on this for awhile as well. For me it isn't about "conservative" or "liberal" money, (whatever that means) it is about bias and honesty. The two people behind the group propping her up both have as a stated goal the desire for regime change in China. Not judging this goal, but from the standpoint of the accusations in the paper, this is called bias. One of them is currently awaiting trial for fraud and the other is a fugitive wanted for fraud and bribery. This is called dishonesty. So yeah, I am going to want to see external research confirming their conclusions. The consensus of the scientific community is that her conclusions are flawed and without merit as they are currently written.
Secondly, she starts the paper off with a screed about how the global scientific community is all against her and trying to silence her. This. Is. Not. Acceptable. For a scientific paper. Sure, for a political paper have at it, but it is not science.
If Gary Stern publishes an article on Sterns website about how playing Stern pinball machines, and only Stern pinball machines, has been shown to cure cancer, but the liberal ivory tower elites don't want you to know about it...would you rush out and buy buy buy, or would it raise alarm bells in your head and make you ask for outside proof of such extravagant claims?
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