(Topic ID: 264520)
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Melbourne
Cave Creek, AZ
I think I might be done drinking draft beer for a while and only drinking bottles and cans for the foreseeable future.
I can’t tell you how many times in my life I’ve gotten a dirty glass or a glass with lipstick on it where the glass wasn’t fully cleaned.
Today’s current update:
covid-19 is deadly, except when it’s not. If you get it once, you can get it again. There might be a vaccine some day, but it also may never happen. It will be deadlier in the fall. Stay at home, except when you need to get food. Good luck!
Quoted from PantherCityPins:I’m not discounting the study, I’m saying it has significant issues with the way they conducted it. I’m also saying that more contagious with a lower death rate is just as bad as less contagious with a proportionally higher death rate. In the end the same number of people die. That’s the problem. We have always known that there was a decent number of people out there who would test positive by antibody and not have shown symptoms to be tested by PCR nasal swab. This isn’t new, the only thing new is we are starting to see numbers.
I also understand that 100% of the population won’t get infected, it was an illustration to show that a highly contagious virus with a “fairly low” 0.03% mortality rate will still kill a lot of people in a short time frame.
Here’s a little more napkin math for illustration. The New York study said 40% of those tested in New York City were positive for the antibody. Their mortality rate for NYC was then estimated at about 0.05%. Still 5 times more deadly than the flu but a whole lot better than 5% mortality. Ok, let’s assume that if 40% of people in New York get exposed with mitigation measures that maybe 60% of the US population would be exposed without mitigation measures. That’s pretty conservative I think. That’s 197 million people exposed, multiplied by the 0.05% mortality rate is 984,000 people dead in about 3-6 months just from coronavirus. That doesn’t take into account the people that die due to no access to hospital care. If we assume only 5% of patients exposed require hospital care that is 9.8 million people who need to be hospitalized over a 3-6 month period which would destroy our hospital system.
But hey, what the hell. Open it up.
I’m other news, I’m gonna brag on my kid. My oldest son is a junior in high school and got his ACT scores back yesterday. Kid got a freaking 36. Show me the scholarship money!
Perhaps you meant .5%? Because .05% of 197 million is 98k not 984k.
Quoted from Mizzou0103:Here’s a good summary of the four plans that are being considered.
“The plans are grim. They do suggest there’s a way back to normal life, but they make clear that it will likely take a long, uncomfortable, even painful time to get there. The CAP and AEI plans in particular suggest the US won’t be able to fully end social distancing until 12 to 18 months from now — with a true end requiring a vaccine or some other therapeutic to prevent or treat Covid-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.”
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/14/21218074/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-end-reopen-economy
I predict they will have a vaccine available by early next winter for those willing to get it but may require signing a waiver or something.
Normally that would be too soon for safety follow up but 12-18 months from now could be disasterous for the global economy. It is bad enough right now after two months.
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:Im not getting this NFL draft the past few days
Some serious coin for empty stadium starts.
I don't think there will be an NFL season, empty stadiums or not...unless accurate rapid testing technology can be utilized and all players, coaches etc. can be tested almost daily.
One guy gets infected and it would likely infect a number of teammates quickly and shut down the season for weeks or indefinitely.
Glad to see the wave cresting but 2000 deaths a day still isn't where we want to be.
36,400 new cases yesterday. Our highest yet.
Not quite time to release the emergency brakes, IMHO...
Quoted from robertmee:Perhaps you meant .5%? Because .05% of 197 million is 98k not 984k.
Oh, yeah sorry. Typo there. I'll fix it in the original post.
Quoted from Coindork:I think I might be done drinking draft beer for a while and only drinking bottles and cans for the foreseeable future.
I can’t tell you how many times in my life I’ve gotten a dirty glass or a glass with lipstick on it where the glass wasn’t fully cleaned.
I think that single use cups will be a thing for quite some time once bars and restaurants open back up. I work for a brewery and we placed an order for 100,000 eco friendly plastic cups this week. I still doubt we will be using them any time soon.
Can the doc or someone explain how a vaccine would work if people don't get immunity after recovering? I always thought that vaccines work by giving you a mild or inactive form of the disease.
Quoted from PantherCityPins:Oh good, there are two ER doctors who think we should just open the gates. Luckily there are thousands of doctors out there who disagree with them.
There were also two doctors who went on the news and said that Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin was a 100% cure. Where are they now? #crickets
Dr. Drew and Dr. Oz went on TV and told everyone this was all overblown and mocked people who were wearing masks in the early stages of the pandemic. #Oops
Yeah, go with the data, not with anecdotes from two ER guys.
This seems to be the new talking points for the conspiracy theorists. I've seen many people touting the study from Stanford saying the infection rate may be higher than thought and thus the mortality rate lower. This was always considered to be probably the case but it really doesn't matter in the end. The study also has issues with the test they chose to use (unapproved test with higher false positive rate) and with sampling error (they used Facebook to recruit patients and their recruitment letter was written in a way to encourage those who had had symptoms or thought they already had coronavirus to be tested).
What matters in the end is how many people flood the hospitals and end up dying as a result of this pandemic. If coronavirus only infects 20% of the population and kills 5% of them, it's the same as if it infects 50% of the population and kills 2% of them. You still have a hell of a lot of people dead. What happened to the people saying this wouldn't kill more than the flu? Seasonal flu kills somewhere between 20000-60000 people in the US every year with business as usual. Coronavirus has already killed 52000 people in A MONTH with mitigation measures in place. Even if the true mortality rate is as low as 0.3%, 0.3% of 328.3 million people is 984,600.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but your mortality number of 984,600 assumes the entire population of the US is going to get infected with COVID, is that what you intended to show here?
Quoted from beergut666:I think that single use cups will be a thing for quite some time once bars and restaurants open back up
I can get on board with this. Generally I don't mind drinking out of glasses for tap beer. But if you've ever watched them clean glasses at the bar outside of the dish washing system it appears to go like this:
Soak glass for a few seconds in soapy water with an agitator. Soak glass a few more seconds in questionable water for a few seconds. Soak glass in hopefully clean water as a rise. Let dry and serve. Doesn't seem to get much cleaning time.
Once reopened with this method hopefully we won't get too much "muh environment" about the single use disposables.
Quoted from Utesichiban:I predict they will have a vaccine available by early next winter for those willing to get it but may require signing a waiver or something.
Normally that would be too soon for safety follow up but 12-18 months from now could be disasterous for the global economy. It is bad enough right now after two months.
The earliest looks to be JNJ’s candidate. They’re producing it at risk and hope to have data by April and if it’s positive they’ll have large quantities available by April 2021.
Quoted from Dono:I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but your mortality number of 984,600 assumes the entire population of the US is going to get infected with COVID, is that what you intended to show here?
Again this was just an example to throw a number out there without getting too complicated with the math. If you want a lower infection rate, feel free to check my later post.
INFECTED CHINESE ATTENDING VEGAS CES SPREAD CV19 WORLDWIDE
http://360newslasvegas.com/infected-chinese-attending-vegas-ces-spread-cv19-worldwide/?fbclid
Quoted from Atari_Daze:https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/the-official-coronavirus-containment-thread/page/244#post-5615488
Howdy ya'll
Salty Melons here reporting for duty
Oh lord.
By that chart my corona cocktail name is Bald Balls and my wife is Steamy Mellons.
Quoted from EJS:Once reopened with this method hopefully we won't get too much "muh environment" about the single use disposables.
In NY, there was a big push to get plastic grocery bags out of stores, and instead have customers use reusable bags or sell paper bags for a nickel. The cutoff date for that was March 1st.
After the shut down, stores started refusing to pack reusable bags that customers brought in (for sanitary reasons), and some stores started offering plastic bags again. I'm assuming they were just offering what they had leftover, so I'm not sure how long that will last. I've been wondering if the plastic bag law will be reversed at some point.
Quoted from beergut666:I think that single use cups will be a thing for quite some time once bars and restaurants open back up. I work for a brewery and we placed an order for 100,000 eco friendly plastic cups this week. I still doubt we will be using them any time soon.
I think that’s a good idea.
Especially being bio degradable.
Quoted from Coindork:Oh lord.
By that chart my corona cocktail name is Bald Balls and my wife is Steamy Mellons.
Well, hello to you and your wife. My new name is Floppy Bum Squeezer. I'm waiting for Slimey Pornstar to show up 
Walmart Store Forced to Close After Multiple Employees Died From Coronavirus
https://popculture.com/trending/news/walmart-colorado-store-forced-close-multiple-employees-died-coronavirus/
2-3 weeks ago I mentioned that I made a sourdough starter. Today I made my first loaves. They were good but I would like more sourdough tang. Here are my pics of the first loaf.
58D1F685-307D-462F-91DF-9CE7FEAD090E (resized).jpeg9F665113-DC7B-4BD4-B7D8-750996C66B10 (resized).jpeg9FE20AD3-0AC1-44C9-9C1E-BE15CC7AEDF4 (resized).jpegI found a hospital status page for Virginia: https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/ - lists counts for hospitalizations, ICU use, and ventilator use.
It was linked somewhere deep in the Virginia Dept of Health site - I think on the page with our hard-to-read tableau views of the state's case data. Anyone seen something similar for their state/country?
Screen Shot 2020-04-25 at 11.21.25 PM (resized).png
-Rob
-visit http://www.kahr.us to get my daughterboard that helps fix WPC pinball resets or my Pinball 2000 H+V Video Sync Combiner kit
Separate from the actual serious and life altering side effects of the economy and social distancing and everything else.
I’m just gonna miss Allentown Pinfest. A lot. One of toddtuckey ‘s walkthroughs of the show came on the TV on auto play. Tears in my eyes.
I want to bring home some system 80 I’ve never heard of. Amish food. Standing in line. A normal line. Waiting for a game queue or a rare title sounds amazing right about now.
That’s all.
Lethbridge, AB
Quoted from hAbO:[quoted image]
Slimey pool cleaner married to Prickly pornstar
Quoted from ForceFlow:I've been wondering if the plastic bag law will be reversed at some point.
This reminds me of the paper straw invention to "help the environment". Wasn't NY one of the first states to adapt them? Middle of last year they concluded the process to harvest the paper caused more damage. Additionally and more importantly the paper was coated with a chemical which leached off toxins and prevented the paper from decomposing. (As anyone knows, bare paper and a liquid don't exactly play well together) So actually plastic straws are more environmentally sound. Plus I think some college kid found a worm that eats plastic. I think they gave up on the reusable metal straws as soon as a death was caused by it :/
Quoted from ForceFlow:I've been wondering if the plastic bag law will be reversed at some point.
It was reversed here.
Quoted from CrazyLevi:It’s not all doom and gloom here in nyc these days! Enjoy:
Featuring the awesome power of Ronnie James Dio’s couch!
Good work, Levi!
rd
Quoted from rwmech5:Slimey pool cleaner married to Prickly pornstar
I'm slimey pool cleaner and the wife is screaming melons , amazing how accurate they get it
i was planning for a business trip to Milan and its nearby area, there was a customer in the mountain area of Bergamo included. We have to give it up due to the virus. I wish i can go there in the next year. i can understand ur feelings. And hope all of ur family will eventually go throught it. Keep safe and make good protections. u are a brave man to protect the family!
Quoted from Pedretti_Gaming:Hi guys
I live in Bergamo, a city in the north of Italy with a 120.000 citizens.
This is a "rich" city and we are near Milan, we have a new hospital and the health care in Italy is free.
These 2 infos are for let you better understand the situation, every day we have more or less 500 new infected of corona virus and every day we have more or less 50\60 deads
I work from home, we have a strong quarantine for all the citizens here, you can go out only for go to the supermarket or pharmacy.
I'm home with family (2 child) I live near the city center, a well place to live, but now we live with all the windows closed and a high volume tv or music... why?
Because we only heard ambulance siren or helicopters sounds from the streets, Childs are scared (me and my wife too)
Yesterday, a good friend of my family aged 49y died for coronavirus (7days) he had a 10y child, the worst thing is not that you die, the worst thing is that you die alone, in hospital without the possibility to talk with your family and you are going to be flamed without a funeral, without the possibility for your family to see you for the last time.
In the photo you can see a military trunk line full of coffins, our graveyard is full
Our office, pubs, restaurants and all the shops not food related are closed.
What I suggest is not to blame the shops who asked a help, the best is to offer help or a sort of economical support. (I had bought 20 breakfast card from a bakery near me for example) and 10 dinner from a restaurant.
I'm not here for teach nothing to no one, I'm writing this post only for let you know.
Ps: sorry for my English, I need to study more and now I have time[quoted image]
Quoted from Pedretti_Gaming:Hi guys
I live in Bergamo, a city in the north of Italy with a 120.000 citizens.
This is a "rich" city and we are near Milan, we have a new hospital and the health care in Italy is free.
These 2 infos are for let you better understand the situation, every day we have more or less 500 new infected of corona virus and every day we have more or less 50\60 deads
I work from home, we have a strong quarantine for all the citizens here, you can go out only for go to the supermarket or pharmacy.
I'm home with family (2 child) I live near the city center, a well place to live, but now we live with all the windows closed and a high volume tv or music... why?
Because we only heard ambulance siren or helicopters sounds from the streets, Childs are scared (me and my wife too)
Yesterday, a good friend of my family aged 49y died for coronavirus (7days) he had a 10y child, the worst thing is not that you die, the worst thing is that you die alone, in hospital without the possibility to talk with your family and you are going to be flamed without a funeral, without the possibility for your family to see you for the last time.
In the photo you can see a military trunk line full of coffins, our graveyard is full
Our office, pubs, restaurants and all the shops not food related are closed.
What I suggest is not to blame the shops who asked a help, the best is to offer help or a sort of economical support. (I had bought 20 breakfast card from a bakery near me for example) and 10 dinner from a restaurant.
I'm not here for teach nothing to no one, I'm writing this post only for let you know.
Ps: sorry for my English, I need to study more and now I have time[quoted image]
Quoted from Pedretti_Gaming:Hi guys
I live in Bergamo, a city in the north of Italy with a 120.000 citizens.
This is a "rich" city and we are near Milan, we have a new hospital and the health care in Italy is free.
These 2 infos are for let you better understand the situation, every day we have more or less 500 new infected of corona virus and every day we have more or less 50\60 deads
I work from home, we have a strong quarantine for all the citizens here, you can go out only for go to the supermarket or pharmacy.
I'm home with family (2 child) I live near the city center, a well place to live, but now we live with all the windows closed and a high volume tv or music... why?
Because we only heard ambulance siren or helicopters sounds from the streets, Childs are scared (me and my wife too)
Yesterday, a good friend of my family aged 49y died for coronavirus (7days) he had a 10y child, the worst thing is not that you die, the worst thing is that you die alone, in hospital without the possibility to talk with your family and you are going to be flamed without a funeral, without the possibility for your family to see you for the last time.
In the photo you can see a military trunk line full of coffins, our graveyard is full
Our office, pubs, restaurants and all the shops not food related are closed.
What I suggest is not to blame the shops who asked a help, the best is to offer help or a sort of economical support. (I had bought 20 breakfast card from a bakery near me for example) and 10 dinner from a restaurant.
I'm not here for teach nothing to no one, I'm writing this post only for let you know.
Ps: sorry for my English, I need to study more and now I have time[quoted image]
Quoted from solarvalue:We just got a contact tracing app over here in Australia. I just downloaded and installed it.
I think I will do the same . You will have people say that the government is going to spy on you and get all your details but companies are doing that anyway . If it helps get us out of this crisis quicker , so be it .
Quoted from Luckydogg420:I’m really concerned about the long term food supply chain issues over the next couple years. I believe that almost every processed food will have time periods of scarcity. Hopefully it doesn’t all happen at once. I think there will be waves that roll through the industry for a while and hopefully they won’t combine at once.
The first wave I noticed was large items like TP, bags of flour, bags of rice, frozen foods, ect. Most of these are warehoused to a degree and can be replenished fairly quickly. I don’t think products like yeast will restock quickly, it takes time to grow and has a short shelf life.
The next wave will be from manufacturing plants closing down to sanitize after employees inevitably get infected. Regional items like fresh meats that only travel a couple hundred miles will become sporadic to find. Other national items might just disappear for a while. Here in Canada there only 1 plant making Kraft Mac & Cheese. If they stop for a while, it will be noticed coast to coast. https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/a-single-factory-is-now-working-24-7-to-keep-kraft-dinner-on-grocery-shelves-1.4862199
Farming will take a massive hit this year. A lot of harvesting requires foreign workers. We’re seeing stories of milk being dumped, pigs being culled, because of lack of processing availability. What happens in the fall when all the crops need to come off and no one is there to pick them? Or no factory is there to process them?
The further out waves will be when frozen vegetable stockpiles run out, and the farm can’t get workers to harvest. Also a lot of produce is transported thousands of miles. Your now not just relying on your own countries ability to keep thing going, you’re also going to have to worry about their ability to produce the products and ship them timely. I think a lot of products will eventually be affected.
A few thoughts on your post.
The items you mention such as TP, flour, rice etc. which were replenished because they were warehoused - went out of stock in the first place precisely because they can be stored easily. They just need a dry place. Likewise frozen foods went out of stock as people filled their freezers, or even the new ones they bought. Usage has only risen to offset people not eating out anymore.
You say fresh meat only travels 100 miles or so - simply not true, or else the leg of NZ lamb I had last week was mislabelled.
The fact that Mac & Cheese could potentially not be available is hardly a major concern, rather an inconvenience. People will have to become accustomed to a lower range of products available - it is likely that there will not be the same consumer demand for 300 different varieties of breakfast cereal for example.
You say farming requires a lot of foreign workers. It only requires 'foreign workers' because people are generally too lazy to do the $h!tty jobs themselves, preferring to outsource cheap labour to those people who are willing to work at anything to earn money. The fact that there are so many people currently out of jobs, worried about their income - immediately provides a massive labour force who are able to fill these positions if they want/need to. It may not be peoples ideal job (but very few people work in their dream job - I wanted to be a chartered skipper, and still do, but you can't always get what you want) but it is still a job which is there and available.
I doubt very much that things will return to 'normal' in the near future, if at all. That may likely mean many businesses will simply cease to be viable - restaurants, bars, cinemas, are likely to be the first effected, but there will be increased demand in other areas - IT conferencing applications, online customer support, delivery drivers, etc..
How many people are working from home and actually finding it is possible to work efficiently that way, video conferences tend to be more concise and punctual and mean people from all over the world can be involved - no need to fly half way around the world if it's not needed.
Life will be different, there will be some people worse off, others better off, the main thing is that we are adaptable and will make things work.
Ok now im really confused and dont know what the hell to believe. Why do i feel like there is something fishy going on?
Quoted from ForceFlow:In NY, there was a big push to get plastic grocery bags out of stores, and instead have customers use reusable bags or sell paper bags for a nickel. The cutoff date for that was March 1st.
After the shut down, stores started refusing to pack reusable bags that customers brought in (for sanitary reasons), and some stores started offering plastic bags again. I'm assuming they were just offering what they had leftover, so I'm not sure how long that will last. I've been wondering if the plastic bag law will be reversed at some point.
Up here in Canada Walmart and Loblaws both were charging 5 cents a plastic bag and have now waved that fee. Safeway/sobeys got rid of plastic bags a couple months back and have a reusable paper bag for a quarter.
Quoted from Who-Dey:Ok now im really confused and dont know what the hell to believe. Why do i feel like there is something fishy going on?
Don't get your news from Fox News. They have LOTS of opinion, and precious little fact. There's a reason Rupert Murdoch has massively lawyered up recently. He's preparing for massive lawsuits over the half-truths, misdirections, and lies broadcast on Fox News the last couple months. You don't hire an army of lawyers if you're innocent.
Watch PBS Newshour instead. You'll be quite surprised at how much more accurate actual journalism is over time, and PBS is a great source of old-school, impartial news coverage.
Also, Birx is a shill. You can't believe 80% of what comes out of her mouth, she's owned somehow. Fauci is more honest, his ratio is the inverse of Birx - believe about 80% of what Fauci says.
Quoted from PinMonk:Don't get your news from Fox News. They have LOTS of opinion, and precious little fact. There's a reason Rupert Murdoch has massively lawyered up recently. He's preparing for massive lawsuits over the half-truths, misdirections, and lies broadcast on Fox the last couple months. You don't hire an army of lawyers if you're innocent.
Watch PBS Newshour instead. You'll be quite surprised at how much more accurate actual journalism is over time, and PBS is a great source of old-school, impartial news coverage.
Also, Birx is shill. You can't believe 80% of what comes out of her mouth, she's owned somehow. Fauci is more honest, his ratio is the inverse of Birx - believe about 80% of what Fauci says.
PBS, npr, Al Jazeera, CBC in Canada, BBC... Lots of good news sources that are far less biased.
“At Ad Fontes Media, our mission is to make news consumers smarter and news media better.
This is a tall order, because we have a big problem in our news media landscape: too much junk news. Junk news is like junk food, and just like junk food has caused massive health epidemics in our country, junk news is causing a massive polarization epidemic.
We are optimistic that together, we can rise to this challenge. It is imperative that we do.
A problem this big requires a multi-pronged solution and participation from all the stakeholders in good journalism. Our focus is on the following:
“We analyze and rank news content and display those rankings in a way that is easy for people to understand.
Quoted from Mizzou0103:“At Ad Fontes Media, our mission is to make news consumers smarter and news media better.
This is a tall order, because we have a big problem in our news media landscape: too much junk news. Junk news is like junk food, and just like junk food has caused massive health epidemics in our country, junk news is causing a massive polarization epidemic.
We are optimistic that together, we can rise to this challenge. It is imperative that we do.
A problem this big requires a multi-pronged solution and participation from all the stakeholders in good journalism. Our focus is on the following:
“We analyze and rank news content and display those rankings in a way that is easy for people to understand.
https://www.adfontesmedia.com/?v=402f03a963ba
That reminds me of the time CBC tried to add some junk to get more eyes and ears. Man, did they get an earful. Made me proud of my fellow Canucks.
Quoted from Tranquilize:PBS, npr, Al Jazeera, CBC in Canada, BBC... Lots of good news sources that are far less biased.
I'd agree with all of those except Al Jazeera, which has its own agenda. You'll never see an expose of Saudi misdeeds on AJ, they just aren't interested in factual reality there and are in some cases complicit in covering it up. Also, their western coverage (Europe/US) often has a subtle to not-so subtle agenda. Not nearly as bad as RT or Sputnik, but it's there. BBC also has started to let propaganda creep into their coverage, most recently with Huawei coverage.
But anyway, PBS, NPR, CBC for sure. I usually recommend PBS Newshour first because no one can come up with a reason why they're "libs" or "trump-lovers" - because in general, they're the switzerland of news, the way news used to be everywhere.
Quoted from PinMonk:Don't get your news from Fox News. They have LOTS of opinion, and precious little fact. There's a reason Rupert Murdoch has massively lawyered up recently. He's preparing for massive lawsuits over the half-truths, misdirections, and lies broadcast on Fox News the last couple months. You don't hire an army of lawyers if you're innocent.
Watch PBS Newshour instead. You'll be quite surprised at how much more accurate actual journalism is over time, and PBS is a great source of old-school, impartial news coverage.
Also, Birx is a shill. You can't believe 80% of what comes out of her mouth, she's owned somehow. Fauci is more honest, his ratio is the inverse of Birx - believe about 80% of what Fauci says.
I don’t trust any media anymore after I learned about operation mockingbird.
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