Dead milkman classic skate board days. I also heard they have 0.00% on the vaccine. No vaccine makes sense.

Your info is good, however I wouldn't discount the Stanford study. The NY study seems to confirm.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-york-may-have-been-infected-study-finds-nj-poised-to-top-100k-cases/2388182/

Also even measles with an R0 as high as 18 doesnt infect an entire population...once herd immunity is established the R0 drops below 1...so any mortality rate won't be times the entire population.

I’m not discounting the study, I’m saying it has significant issues with the way they conducted it. I’m also saying that more contagious with a lower death rate is just as bad as less contagious with a proportionally higher death rate. In the end the same number of people die. That’s the problem. We have always known that there was a decent number of people out there who would test positive by antibody and not have shown symptoms to be tested by PCR nasal swab. This isn’t new, the only thing new is we are starting to see numbers.

I also understand that 100% of the population won’t get infected, it was an illustration to show that a highly contagious virus with a “fairly low” 0.03% mortality rate will still kill a lot of people in a short time frame.

Here’s a little more napkin math for illustration. The New York study said 40% of those tested in New York City were positive for the antibody. Their mortality rate for NYC was then estimated at about 0.5%. Still 5 times more deadly than the flu but a whole lot better than 5% mortality. Ok, let’s assume that if 40% of people in New York get exposed with mitigation measures that maybe 60% of the US population would be exposed without mitigation measures. That’s pretty conservative I think. That’s 197 million people exposed, multiplied by the 0.5% mortality rate is 984,000 people dead in about 3-6 months just from coronavirus. That doesn’t take into account the people that die due to no access to hospital care. If we assume only 5% of patients exposed require hospital care that is 9.8 million people who need to be hospitalized over a 3-6 month period which would destroy our hospital system.

But hey, what the hell. Open it up.

I’m other news, I’m gonna brag on my kid. My oldest son is a junior in high school and got his ACT scores back yesterday. Kid got a freaking 36. Show me the scholarship money!

As an Australian I appreciate your work during these times . But we have had 80 deaths so far from the virus in the whole country . If I was in a city where almost 1000 people a day are dying I'm sure I would be a bit nervous about going to work . People in that situation are the real Heroes .

Tonight's movie . The good run still continues .

IMG20200425211738 (resized).jpg

How many people do you personally know of that have died from this Doc?

Damn! Congratulations! That’s amazing.

Is my post approved?

Currently only one. I’d like to keep it that way.

My niece is a nurse in the ER in Springfield Massachusetts. She’s witnessing many a day. They go quick.

I’m really concerned about the long term food supply chain issues over the next couple years. I believe that almost every processed food will have time periods of scarcity. Hopefully it doesn’t all happen at once. I think there will be waves that roll through the industry for a while and hopefully they won’t combine at once.

The first wave I noticed was large items like TP, bags of flour, bags of rice, frozen foods, ect. Most of these are warehoused to a degree and can be replenished fairly quickly. I don’t think products like yeast will restock quickly, it takes time to grow and has a short shelf life.

The next wave will be from manufacturing plants closing down to sanitize after employees inevitably get infected. Regional items like fresh meats that only travel a couple hundred miles will become sporadic to find. Other national items might just disappear for a while. Here in Canada there only 1 plant making Kraft Mac & Cheese. If they stop for a while, it will be noticed coast to coast. https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/a-single-factory-is-now-working-24-7-to-keep-kraft-dinner-on-grocery-shelves-1.4862199

Farming will take a massive hit this year. A lot of harvesting requires foreign workers. We’re seeing stories of milk being dumped, pigs being culled, because of lack of processing availability. What happens in the fall when all the crops need to come off and no one is there to pick them? Or no factory is there to process them?

The further out waves will be when frozen vegetable stockpiles run out, and the farm can’t get workers to harvest. Also a lot of produce is transported thousands of miles. Your now not just relying on your own countries ability to keep thing going, you’re also going to have to worry about their ability to produce the products and ship them timely. I think a lot of products will eventually be affected.

It must be a regional thing, I just got back from the grocery store and they had every cut of pork imaginable, cheap too.

Update from a state that's battling for fewest cases with Montana. We're planning on opening back up in a week or two - beauty salons, restaurants, stores. I can tell you that the feeling here is very different from what people are experiencing on the coasts and in the cities. We've had a dozen known cases in the county, all recovered. There's a sense that there is no danger, that maybe there never was any danger, that it's just a cold, that it's a leftist conspiracy, etc. School was cancelled for the remainder of the year, however. Kids are depressed. The only concern is that the travel season will bring more virus. People start looking for license plates from the coasts and swearing under their breaths (this is kind of always true, though).

Went to Walmart yesterday, wore a mask and felt awkward. Mask wearers maybe at 40%, which seems pretty good, but the population that needs to be wearing them - the old, tough-guy ranchers - are never going to do it. They just won't. It's not macho. It's not a problem. Won't happen here.

No pork, not much meat, but no one is worried as we're surrounded by livestock. Beans, rice, milk, pasta, toilet paper all available again.

Just a question Doc, when did the side effects of Plaquenil become markedly more dangerous? The CDC website says it's once a week dose and is safe for adults,children and pregnant and nursing mothers. Seems to be 2 different opinions on this drug now where there wasn't before. Thanks

This is a screen shot I took on 3-20-2020. 5 weeks ago. Both of these tables are stratified by Total Cases.

A couple of new columns have been added in the new table.

52,193 - 207 = 51,986 deaths in the US in 5 weeks/ 36 days ago. That equals an average of 1444 people dying every day.

Screen Shot 2020-03-20 at 9.15.35 AM (resized).png

And this one from about 5 minutes ago.

Screen Shot 2020-04-25 at 8.20.47 AM (resized).png

Here is a post from 63 days ago. This was the attitude of quite a few people way back when. What was not going to happen happened.

Screen Shot 2020-04-25 at 8.39.08 AM (resized).png

It’s a combination of things. First the dose of Hydroxychloroquine that is used in treating COVID-19 is a higher dose than is usually used for autoimmune diseases. Second when paired with azithromycin it looks like the heart rhythm problems become more frequent.

I got over that awkward feeling after a sicky moseyed up right next to me at a gas station while coughing his ass off. If I go in anywhere, I wear a mask.

I've eaten there before. Right across the street from the Children's Museum if I remember correctly.

Best Article I have seen on the the virus : https://www.zerohedge.com/health/facts-prove-almost-everyone-wrong-about-pandemic

A buddy has a friend that works USDA food inspection. He mentioned there is going to be a meat shortage.

Another buddy has daughter that is nurse and she said they are seeing some unusual symptoms. Seizures, major freaking out, people not tracking at all. Could just be extreme fear but doesn't sound to me like the flu.

We live in exciting times !

Sort of like the Indians when the white man was coming through in the wagon trains

Compared to other countries we are doing very well .
The million dollar question is when and how fast we reopen everything . If we do it too soon , all this hardship will be for nothing . But People need to get back to work . Talk about a rock and a hard place .

Read all of the user comments. Every single person is saying that article is total BS.

Few pages back someone asked me for a Disney update. Watching a little news last night the press is catching wind of what Ive known for a month.
Open by next spring at best. One local station thru out Jan 1, just dumb, Christmas week is a huge money maker at the parks with Big New Years Celebrations.
We have talked behind scenes of how long to decorate for xmas. Would take the crews about 2 weeks, normally 3. But working days with closed parks would speed that up. Not working long nights in the cold will be better but no overtime.
Both parks in Ca and Florida have massive stopped projects right now. Unfinished Avengers land at Disneyland. And Disneyworld has so many unfinshed projects its to many to list.
There is not one person working on these projects as we speak. No construction happening. Some concrete poor in Florida is all out side of parks.
I see sports starting before Disney opens.
Dont buy DIS stock this week.

Kerry, thanks for your weldments and all that you do for the hobby.

I agree with most of what this article’s author says, but he’s missing a couple of key points. First, if we wait until the hospitals are overwhelmed, it’s too late. Flattening the curve means getting out ahead of such a crisis. Second, we aren’t just “delaying the inevitable” with lockdowns. Let’s say that the number of deaths with no measures is 1 million, and by delaying the peak(s) we get that down to 750,000 - through better understanding of treatment options, and better access to treatment. That’s still 250,000 lives saved.

I’m also still hopeful that a treatment or vaccine is around the corner, even if it’s a year or more out. Without hope, what do we have?

Over here construction and building still continues , I would have thought this was the perfeczt time for theme parks to update and to attend to any maintenance they need to do while crowds aren't there .

I think Disney will do just that when given the OK to have limited employees working. They will certainly have to adhere to new safety and sanitation protocols then get approval by the Unions.
I think they will be able to get work done so as to keep their stock from tanking completely. Construction work is a huge economic indicator. It has to restart nationally as well as in the theme parks.

I am still optimistic for a Fall Disneyland re open. I think they are giving their investors "worst case scenarios"

In Finland, the government is now facing possibility that flattening the curve has worked here a bit too well, and with the current restrictions we will have more long time impact from restrictions, than from the pandemic. Surely not an easy situation for those in charge

Schools and restaurants are still closed, people over 70 are instructed to stay at home, and borders are closed, except Finnish citizens living abroad are allowed to return home, but instructed to self-quarantine for 14 days.

I am fortunate to be able to work remotely, and have done that since Mar 13. Belonging to risk group because of type 2 diabetes and high blood pressure (even though they are in control with medication) worries me though.

Everyone take care!

Agreed. Anything we can do to reduce deaths and strain on our hospital system. Personally I often wonder aloud if a vaccine is even possible. But I sure hope it is!!
Based on how contagious this little beastie is, I'm not real hopeful that much can stop it. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
I'm really kinda passed the Covid-19 problem. I'm starting to look at the effects of the secondary problems this thing is causing. Unfortunately our society is not setup to withstand many shocks. With a 3 day supply of food in major cities and a general lack of preparedness, both mentally and physically, we don't have a big margin for shocks.

I'm speaking in general...obviously pinballers are a special breed.

The problem solving engineer in me trys to figure all the angles. A lot of what is occurring is causing me slight anxiety as I don't see obvious or even "outside the box" solutions. However I will keep working the problem.

In regards to an earlier Post I submitted concerning use of UV light to treat Coronavirus internally, which was soundly derided as a "Non Starter" This Technology is now being introduced by Cedars-Sinai for Coronavirus specific treatment and goes by the name Healight. "The Healight technology employs proprietary methods of administering intermittent ultraviolet (UV) A light via a novel endotracheal medical device. Pre-clinical findings indicate the technology’s significant impact on eradicating a wide range of viruses and bacteria, inclusive of coronavirus"

https://aytubio.com/healight/

You can get in on this by buying AYTU (NASDAQ), but it looks like a lot of that was baked in on March 9 when the stock quadrupled.

UV radiation causes tissue damage. There are no legitimate scientific outlets that I can see that are investigating UV radiation as a potential legitimate treatment.

Youtube even deleted the promotional videos about it.

Found this after following a few links from the article kstairmantis posted. It throws some cold water on my hope for a vaccine.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616

Yes and I stand by the statement that using UV light in a trachea to treat an alveolar infection is a non-starter.

Something isn't right here. If you go onto the Cedars-Sinai website for the research team listed in this press release there is not a single mention of this project. If you look at the Cedars-Sinai website for the lead physician mentioned there is nothing about this project. Also, the links to the news and publications on the site are currently broken.

In addition, the "study" linked at the website found by swampfire is a poster that was presented at a gastroenterology conference (which appears to be the main focus of research for the main physician as cited in the press release). There's a big difference between applying a treatment via an endoscope in a tubular organ like the intestines and applying it in a complicated branching organ like the lungs where the light won't even get into the area where the infection is. In addition, a poster is the first step in publishing research. It's often used to throw out new ideas and talk about what your lab might be doing in the future. That poster was in 2016. If their results were positive I would think they would have pursued the idea further.

My guess is this is an attempt to pump a stock price by a biotech company using a technology that won't work for the infection cited.

Look I get it, Phil-Lee is coming from a place of wanting this all to get better. We all do. I just think efforts at this time should be focused on areas that are likely to work and help people in the coming months.

Any healthy people thinking about contracting Covid-19 on purpose to get a Pandemic Hall Pass needs to read this story and a couple others first. We are still in a low information environment - beating this is not the same risk as beating the flu.

Been debating with friends about what's happening, what should happen and what will happen with regard to covid. Here's a summary:

1. What's happening -Many smaller cities and areas are flattening the curve very well, maybe too well. Numbers are down, and society is at a stand-still, for the most part. Things are happening possibly too slow. Major centres have far higher numbers, and will get through the horror much quicker, likely too quick.

2. What should happen -This is a tough one. The concensus that I'm hearing is that there is no way society will last like this for a year. There is no guarantee that there will be a vaccine. Two possibilies that might work: (1) Enforce strict adherence to masks, sanitizer etc. everywhere and impose steep fines for those who do not follow. Open up half (less crowded, interactive parts) of society and work diligently to protect the elderly. (2) Enforce all of the first solution except for age groups. Let out those under 25, no restrictions. Then move up to 35 and so on, all the time protecting the elderly. These ideas will only work in smaller communities, but shouldn't we have our hospitals at around 50% with covid if we plan to get through this without a vaccine? We simply cannot bank on a vaccine, unfortunately, and the economy, not just money, but our entire system that pays for our social programs, must start its recover soon.

3. What will happen -The governments don't seem to have a part B figured out for this pandemic, so the lockdown will remain. More people will join the protests and refuse to self-isolate in less than three months. They will stop following the lockdown and the virus will overload the health system everywhere and we get all the bad results that we've been trying to avoid.

I'm not sure if any of this is correct, just what I'm hearing and thinking. What do you guys think?

I have been trying to figure out an exit plan for myself. I thought about just getting the virus - for about thirty seconds. It's not a good solution and here is why:

There is evidence that it can lead to lung damage in some patients, even in the young. Temporary or permanent - doctors don't know.

And it is not just the lungs that are affected:

'“[The disease] can attack almost anything in the body with devastating consequences,” says cardiologist Harlan Krumholz of Yale University and Yale-New Haven Hospital, who is leading multiple efforts to gather clinical data on COVID-19. “Its ferocity is breathtaking and humbling.”'

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

From the same article:

"In serious cases, SARS-CoV-2 lands in the lungs and can do deep damage there. But the virus, or the body’s response to it, can injure many other organs. Scientists are just beginning to probe the scope and nature of that harm."

The organs affected include, the brain, eyes nose, lungs, liver, heart, kidneys and intestines. Blood clotting is a problem in some patients.

From one of my previous posts:

The Life Cycle of CoVid-19

• After contracting the disease, the patient can remain in an 'incubation' period where the person can have and spread the disease. The unfortunate person is asymptomatic, meaning there are no symptoms to indicate that they are sick. The incubation period can last from 2 to 14 days.
• Then the 'symptomatic' phase starts. Symptoms include fever, dry cough, fatigue, shortness of breath and others. The full list can be found at https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus - search for 'The symptoms of COVID-19.' The symptomatic phase typically lasts two weeks, but can be as long as three to six weeks for severe cases.
• Some patients in the 'post-symtomatic' phase have tested positive for the virus. It is unknown whether CoVid-19 can be spread in this phase.

The short of it is that if you expose yourself to CoVid-19, you will need to be in quarantine for 14 days and then risk another possible two or more weeks with the symptoms.

This is the killer; there is no guarantee that once you have had CoVid-19 that you will have immunity. There is some evidence that antibody levels are high in some people and very low in others. Reports from South Korea state that some of their patients that have already had CoVid-19 are getting it again.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-immunity-to-covid-19-really-means/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-reports-more-recovered-coronavirus-patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21V0JQ

I wish I had better news for you. I have four high risk factors and need to get back to running Pecos Pinball. Honestly, I don't know what I am going to do in the future. For now I am just hunkering down waiting for a solution to this nasty bug.

The decision is yours. If you want to risk getting CoVid-19, there are plenty of opportunities to do so and help your fellow citizens in the process.

My guess is the way forward will be a staged re-opening with strict mask and distancing rules in place. I'm not sure how you operationally would allow the younger age groups out while protecting the at risk since many of the at risk live with the younger age groups. Also I think lifting restrictions completely for the younger age groups would probably hit the lower income people hardest as they are more likely to have multiple generations under one roof. I don't know, that's really a question for a social engineer.

Obviously you can't keep everything locked down until there is a vaccine. I think once we see the infection rates start to decrease then you can start a slow opening of an area. Also this will need to be localized to states and even counties. Obviously lower density population areas should be able to open before big cities. I guess the good and bad news is that states like Georgia will be the guinea pigs for the rest of the country.

There are some big unknowns at this point that make it very difficult to work out part B. The first is what is the real infection rate in outbreak areas like Italy and NYC and we need reliable antibody testing to get that. The second is can you become immune to it. Once we get a handle on those it should make decisions easier, but not easy. The best case is that it has been fairly common and you can develop immunity.

If we can't become immune to it then we are just going to have be as careful as we can and hope we get better treating it but we will have to accept its going to kill a bunch of people anytime it gets out of hand as unpleasant as that is. I don't see a way around it. We can't go into lockdown forever.

Well...there has yet to be a cure for the "common" cold....this is also a corona virus..but not "common" is a cure possible? prob not not soon if at all....it will just get less damaging to people who have already had it and have developed some anti-bodies....

We are in a real jam here...we have to open up again....and if there is no cure short of "herd" immunity...well....sort of a recursive problem

Here’s a good summary of the four plans that are being considered.

“The plans are grim. They do suggest there’s a way back to normal life, but they make clear that it will likely take a long, uncomfortable, even painful time to get there. The CAP and AEI plans in particular suggest the US won’t be able to fully end social distancing until 12 to 18 months from now — with a true end requiring a vaccine or some other therapeutic to prevent or treat Covid-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.”

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/14/21218074/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-end-reopen-economy

I’m in the Atlanta suburbs. I wore my one N95 mask to Home Depot today. Mask usage was around 50% for both employees and customers. We might have a spike. Meanwhile check out this new crisis:

02D8337E-340A-4FBC-94DF-F9C0CDC8BF05 (resized).jpeg

The beer is going stake AND they're running out of co2 and new beer production could be in jeopardy! Shit just got real.