This topic is closed.
Quoted from rwmech5:Are there any forecasts as to how any small-medium businesses will close permanently?
I know there are some larger ones suffering. JC Penney, Nordstrom, and the Gap to name a few. The Gap is no longer paying rent
Got the call today!
I have to get the shop back up and running at a limited production. For next week, l have to work with 2 employees and not the usual 7. Hopefully by May 15th we will be fully staffed. Cross my fingers. Social distancing will have to met, so some growing pains will happen. We have a large backlog of units to complete.
Been off since March 15th. Being a workaholic, I could not be more happy. Will have to take plenty of care with this.
Too much mask you crash.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/24/driver-crashes-car-after-passing-out-from-wearing-n95-mask/
Quoted from Murphdom:I know there are some larger ones suffering. JC Penney, Nordstrom, and the Gap to name a few. The Gap is no longer paying rent
No shite?
I don't understand the numbers (I think this was mentioned earlier as well). The expectation is that the number of deaths in USA is 66,000 by August (just modified up by 10% from 60,000). We just passed 50,000 deaths. Aren't we going to hit 60k in a couple of weeks? The model is wrong that is being used, right? Or what am I not understanding?
Yes I would say it is looking like we will be north of 60k deaths for sure by August. The deaths will taper off but still I’d be surprised if we are under 70k in August.
Quoted from cottonm4:I visited Universal Studios in Orlando 20 years ago. The main phrase that could be used is: Pack them in those rides like sardines
There is no f'n way those places are going to reopen safely and profitably without a vaccine.
Quoted from PantherCityPins:Yes I would say it is looking like we will be north of 60k deaths for sure by August. The deaths will taper off but still I’d be surprised if we are under 70k in August.
With many states the models suggest are opening things up prematurely, my guess is we’ll be passing 90k-100k + by August. Hope I’m wrong.
So back to pinball for a bit. How does everyone think this will affect the pinball market if this continues on for many more months? Do prices hold or if more lose their jobs, is it inevitable prices on some games will drop?
Also wondering about NIB. Is Stern making any games at all right now or is the line still shut down? What are the chances they role out any new games before fall and is demand for NIB purchases going to soften significantly given how many many are unemployed or worried about their jobs?
Quoted from PantherCityPins:Yes I would say it is looking like we will be north of 60k deaths for sure by August. The deaths will taper off but still I’d be surprised if we are under 70k in August.
With averaging over 2000 deaths a day over the last week, the death count will most likely be over 60000 on May 1. The death taper does not appear to be happening yet. 70000 deaths by May 15 is a possibility if the taper does not happen quickly.
Quoted from Utesichiban:So back to pinball for a bit. How does everyone think this will affect the pinball market if this continues on for many more months? Do prices hold or if more lose their jobs, is it inevitable prices on some games will drop?
Also wondering about NIB. Is Stern making any games at all right now or is the line still shut down? What are the chances they role out any new games before fall and is demand for NIB purchases going to soften significantly given how many many are unemployed or worried about their jobs?
Line is shut down indefinitely. Remember this is just the beginning. Major recession starts soon.
Due to my nerves over my wife working in the ICU, Massachusetts being 4th on the list of most cases and this never ending cycle of cabin fever...I’ve basically been rehabbing every damn room in the house. I just reused 50 year old stock (that I put in storage when we demo’d the house) finally back up, and now it’s being appreciated again.
Take that Corona! You son of a bitch.
And how ‘bout that original avocado color?
10EFA401-AE36-4481-8B7D-6FC7A115A1D5 (resized).jpegQuoted from Utesichiban:So back to pinball for a bit. How does everyone think this will affect the pinball market if this continues on for many more months? Do prices hold or if more lose their jobs, is it inevitable prices on some games will drop?
Also wondering about NIB. Is Stern making any games at all right now or is the line still shut down? What are the chances they role out any new games before fall and is demand for NIB purchases going to soften significantly given how many many are unemployed or worried about their jobs?
I think demand will remain "fairly strong" and the "stay at home orders" might actually help prices if Stern & Jersey Jack can't open for a while. Yes some people are out of work but there are also a good many people who will be looking to add to their collections (or who will start a collection) if arcades & bars are close for a while longer.
Also I assume there will be a good many people thinking like my family and not really wanting to travel or go anywhere that is not necessary until there is a vaccine and that will likely have people spending a lot of time at home for the next two years (give or take a few months).
So I doubt we will see any major changes downward because of this mess.
I feel very sorry for the people living paycheck to paycheck that are currently out of work. But between new jobs this will create - money the government will be tossing at us - and people not hanging out in bars, going out for dinner, or taking vacations I think a good many people will likely have extra money to spent also.
Is there much push back in the USA about supporting large corporates overs smaller businesses? We are opening up a bit more in New Zealand in a few days and the 1/3 fee that Ubereats charges restaurants has resulted in a lot of interest in ways to keep the money with the business instead. There are a couple other things like this brewing too. Just curious.
Quoted from DCFAN:With averaging over 2000 deaths a day over the last week, the death count will most likely be over 60000 on May 1. The death taper does not appear to be happening yet. 70000 deaths by May 15 is a possibility if the taper does not happen quickly.
[quoted image]
[quoted image]
I’m trying to be optimistic here!!!
Quoted from Atrain:I don't understand the numbers (I think this was mentioned earlier as well). The expectation is that the number of deaths in USA is 66,000 by August (just modified up by 10% from 60,000). We just passed 50,000 deaths. Aren't we going to hit 60k in a couple of weeks? The model is wrong that is being used, right? Or what am I not understanding?
The chat itself is crazy.
I’m not a statistician but we should be past 60,000 dead by Thursday based on what We’ve been seeing.
Quoted from embryonjohn:Due to my nerves over my wife working in the ICU, Massachusetts being 4th on the list of most cases and this never ending cycle of cabin fever...I’ve basically been rehabbing every damn room in the house. I just reused 50 year old stock (that I put in storage when we demo’d the house) finally back up, and now it’s being appreciated again.
Take that Corona! You son of a bitch.
And how ‘bout that original avocado color?[quoted image]
If you’re real bored I can drop by a game or two to work on. 
Nice work by the way and we really appreciate what your wife is doing. I have the same sinking feeling every day when I go to work.
Quoted from too-many-pins:I think demand will remain "fairly strong" and the "stay at home orders" might actually help prices if Stern & Jersey Jack can't open for a while. Yes some people are out of work but there are also a good many people who will be looking to add to their collections (or who will start a collection) if arcades & bars are close for a while longer.
Also I assume there will be a good many people thinking like my family and not really wanting to travel or go anywhere that is not necessary until there is a vaccine and that will likely have people spending a lot of time at home for the next two years (give or take a few months).
So I doubt we will see any major changes downward because of this mess.
I feel very sorry for the people living paycheck to paycheck that are currently out of work. But between new jobs this will create - money the government will be tossing at us - and people not hanging out in bars, going out for dinner, or taking vacations I think a good many people will likely have extra money to spent also.
Good points. It will be interesting. I'm wondering, though, if many of the barcades or location areas will have to start selling off some of their pinscand games if this continues on for months.
I’ve been eating out a lot less, and tipping a lot more. Obviously it’s still takeout-only here (for now). I went to my favorite Cuban place today at noon, and got $50 of food and tipped $20. It breaks my heart to see how slow things are for them. Usually on a Friday there’s a line to get in. Today it seemed like I was their only lunch customer. The family enjoyed the break from our own cooking.
Some of you were asking about the IHME projections and why we weren't going down like they projected. I did some research into this, and basically the overall gist of it is, those models are basically useless. Perhaps somewhat useful for peaks and going up, but pretty much worthless for the going down part.
Somebody on reddit looked into their formula, and basically they make the assumption that nobody gets infected after the peak...the R value goes to 0. Which we all know is not going to happen. So that's why the initial New York graph said that it would end May 1st, 3 weeks after the peak, and why the graph keeps sliding to the right on their site now.
Basically, it is about the most optimistic scenario you could ever come up with after the peak. It's not realistic at all. And now people are starting to realize that it's junk because the 88k number went to 60k, and then back up 66k, and now it's going to keep on going higher and higher.
All the countries with the most infections and limited testing (US, Italy, France, Spain) have a 10% mortality rate (on paper, just because of not enough testing) except the US because we're behind them in the timeline. We have 915k positives right now, you can extrapolate it and kind of see where we'll be. It's sad and I don't want to think about it.
I don't know why anyone would be using those projections on the downward side.
Just FYI for everyone.
They are offering antibody testing in my area next week. I'm going to try to take my family to have it done. I'm pretty certain my daughter had it and I think there is a good chance I had it as well.
Just be aware, the antibody tests are not perfect. It takes about 6-10 days to form IgG antibodies from the time of infection and the presence of antibodies does not necessarily confer immunity. We are already seeing some significant differences patient to patient with how good the antibodies are at neutralizing the actual virus.
In short, even if you have antibodies it doesn’t mean you are for sure protected. Just FYI.
Quoted from frisbez:Can anybody in Georgia or Tennessee comment on why in the ever living fuck their states feel things are good enough to re-open?
Major Lance's daughter (the current Mayor of Atlanta) is urging citizens to stay home and ignore the governor's order reopening businesses.
Out here in OZ, our curve is so flat, it is flatter than our roads 
... most states haven't recorded a new case in days ... and yet there is very little indication that restrictions are lifting anytime soon.... no state wants to be the first....
Quoted from Daditude:[quoted image]
We had a diner here that had to install locks on their doors for the first time. They had been open 24/7, 365 days a year since 1939.
Quoted from frisbez:Can anybody in Georgia or Tennessee comment on why in the ever living fuck their states feel things are good enough to re-open?
I haven’t seen an explanation of why some businesses are okay and others are not. I don’t understand how it’s possible to make restaurants safe when you have to take off your mask to eat. I guess we’ll see what happens. My baseline behavior won’t change. I’ll wear a mask when I go out (for other people, not me), and I’ll avoid places with more than 6 people.
At first people were stockpiling wipes,cleaning supplies, and toilet paper. Apparently French fries are starting to go in short supply as well. As the meat plants shut down pork will likely follow. Any guesses what the next thing will be?
Quoted from beergut666:We had a diner here that had to install locks on their doors for the first time. They had been open 24/7, 365 days a year since 1939.
What's the diner? I'd be really interested to hear about a diner that's been operating for that long 
Quoted from ForceFlow:What's the diner? I'd be really interested to hear about a diner that's been operating for that long
I think it’s Mickey’s Diner
5FADA311-A168-47B7-9DAD-25D4649F3BB6 (resized).jpegQuoted from Murphdom:At first people were stockpiling wipes,cleaning supplies, and toilet paper. Apparently French fries are starting to go in short supply as well. As the meat plants shut down pork will likely follow. Any guesses what the next thing will be?
Pork and chicken hoarding.
Quoted from ForceFlow:What's the diner? I'd be really interested to hear about a diner that's been operating for that long
Quoted from Murphdom:Apparently French fries are starting to go in short supply as well. As the meat plants shut down pork will likely follow. Any guesses what the next thing will be?
We have had no issue getting potatoes.
It’s pretty easy to cut your own French fries.
Quoted from Murphdom:At first people were stockpiling wipes,cleaning supplies, and toilet paper. Apparently French fries are starting to go in short supply as well. As the meat plants shut down pork will likely follow. Any guesses what the next thing will be?
We had flour shortages in NZ. Turned out it wasn't the lack of flour but not enough packaging since demand shot up. They started putting it in basic plastic bags and problem solved!
not good.. 
Though the virus was first detected in China, where the authoritarian government locked down entire cities in January, the United States is now home to the largest number of known cases in the world. The number of cases on American soil is nearly four times as high as the second-worst hit country, Spain, and higher than the total case counts in Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom combined, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
Link for Cottonm4
"Ultraviolet blood irradiation (UBI) was extensively used in the 1940s and 1950s to treat many diseases including septicemia, pneumonia, tuberculosis, arthritis, asthma and even poliomyelitis. The early studies were carried out by several physicians in USA and published in the American Journal of Surgery. However with the development of antibiotics, the use of UBI declined and it has now been called “the cure that time forgot”
Quoted from Murphdom:At first people were stockpiling wipes,cleaning supplies, and toilet paper. Apparently French fries are starting to go in short supply as well. As the meat plants shut down pork will likely follow. Any guesses what the next thing will be?
My concern is that things are going to get so severe that people are going to be forced to resume their daily lives while taking precautions, and we are going to have to suffer through the fatalities. Pretty grim unless a treatment is discovered.
Quoted from Mr68:The break in this thread was great for me to clear my head, consider things, and research Covid-19.
I'm done with the extreme isolation I've been in and I find myself wanting to become infected. This is not an impulsive idea or a deathwish. I'm in excellent health and from what I've read, the great majority of infected people survive it and many with a range of tolerable symptoms.
With a vaccine a year or more away I'm not willing to live my life in guarded worry for that long. Allowing myself to become infected would give me the immunity I seek and I could then help people by donating blood, my energy, whatever.
So I began brainstorming on how to accomplish my goal of infection while keeping others safe. I don't mind experimenting on myself but how do I do it without harming others and this is what I've come up with.
I email my doctor and told him that I wish to voluntarily become infected via any clinical studies. I'm waiting to hear back from him. I also called my local hospital but they didn't have anything. Lastly, I Googled and found this: "Human challenge trials, where healthy volunteers would be exposed to Covid-19"
Link: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/9/21209593/coronavirus-vaccine-human-trials-explained
It's an interesting read and has a link to submit your email for consideration in the study, IF a study like this happens. I submitted my email but have taken no further actions to verify the websites legitimacy or anything else about it. I just found it this morning and I want to continue to searching the internet. Please do your homework if interested and let me know.
I will continue to wear a face mask and practice safety protocols but something's gotta give. Any feedback or ideas welcomed.
Hey 68
IMHO I think that this is an extremely bad decision. My expertise, however, is not in medicine but in building pins from scratch. Wear that face mask.
Wally
Quoted from ForceFlow:What's the diner? I'd be really interested to hear about a diner that's been operating for that long
Yes. I'd like to order half their menu as well.
You know...
For science
Quoted from frisbez:Can anybody in Georgia or Tennessee comment on why in the ever living fuck their states feel things are good enough to re-open?
Georgia and Florida will almost certainly see a spike in new infections over the next several weeks if they actually go forward with their plans.
I'm hoping they will reconsider. The curve may be flattening, but we're still seeing 30,000 new confirmed cases a day. Which is still a lot.
New England? Whoo... real disaster up yonder. RI, MA, CT, PA, NJ... new cases up up up.
We gotta see these trends nosediving before we think about loosening restrictions... I mean, right?
Quoted from cdnpinbacon:I picture Phil Lee in a smoking jacket re-lighting his pipe
Thanks for the gesture. It would be difficult to re-enter this Thread, so much has changed.
I'm not certain I could add anything of value.
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Leduc, AB
Marblehead, MA