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Quoted from o-din:No, I can't because many may have survived anyway.
How do we know when a ventilator is the difference between life and death?
Are they all put on it when they have actually stopped breathing on their own?
Because I’ve treated ARDS patients myself and I can tell you it’s hard as hell to save them WITH maximum vent support. Without it their oxygen levels are not compatible with life.
Quoted from PantherCityPins:Because I’ve treated ARDS patients myself and I can tell you it’s hard as hell to save them WITH maximum vent support. Without it their oxygen levels are not compatible with life.
That makes sense. I was just wondering if people not that far gone are being put on them.
Quoted from PinJim:But distancing won’t go on forever. We will go back to work and it will spread.
Not neccesarily. People will put on their N-95 mask and gloves like they put on their hat every morning.
Workplace guidelines specific to the job (Safe Operating Procedures) will be trained and practiced.
Safe distancing practices will continue. Deep cleaning will become prevalent. Many Businesses based on crowds
will go the way of the Dodo.
PPE is like a suit of armor going in to battle, it won't save everyone but it will save many, those who are diligent
in using it.
I noticed the first creaks from Titanic beginning to see the advantages of gloves and masks, I expect supplies to be available
to the Public in a couple of weeks.
I'm going to add I was put in an oxygen tent for a week for pneumonia when I was young child, so I do know what it's like to wake up and not be able to breathe.
I can thank my parents for waking up and acting swiftly as I stood in their doorway gasping for air which I could not get.
My dad stuck my head in a steaming shower while mom got the car out. I don't remember anything after that until we were in the hospital.
Quoted from PinJim:You do realize this is contagious? The current infection rate is 570 per million. I wholly understand that distancing is slowing it down. But distancing won’t go on forever. We will go back to work and it will spread.
Misinformation? I don’t think so. Numbers don’t lie. And my 2% is an estimated kill rate. Maybe it’s half that, maybe it’s twice that. The jury is out on the kill rate.
I love math, and I’m failing to see their 100k number, short of a vaccine.
Not here to Argue your estimations but they are just that.
Quoted from phil-lee:Not neccesarily. People will put on their N-95 mask and gloves like they put on their hat every morning.
Workplace guidelines specific to the job (Safe Operating Procedures) will be trained and practiced.
Safe distancing practices will continue. Deep cleaning will become prevalent. Many Businesses based on crowds
will go the way of the Dodo.
PPE is like a suit of armor going in to battle, it won't save everyone but it will save many, those who are diligent
in using it.
I noticed the first creaks from Titanic beginning to see the advantages of gloves and masks, I expect supplies to be available
to the Public in a couple of weeks.
No offense, but I don’t buy it.
First, what PPE? It’ll be months before it’s available to the general public, at best. And even when it is, I don’t see people wearing it to work, the store, etc.
Second, it’s not who we are. Humans are social animals. We will eventually accept that people will get sick so we can go to the mall, have parties, head to the amusement park, etc. I’m not very social, in fact, I’m an introvert. But even I want to get out. And it’s been a few weeks.
A lot of people will die. That’s my prediction. And eventually it’ll work it’s way through society, and we’ll gain resistance. Sucks being an animal. But we are, and it’s not a perfect world.
Anyone who says 100,000 dead is not being truthful. Sorry, not buying it. Million, millions. I’m sorry for those older people in our communities. I’ll do my part to distance and hope a solution comes forth....
Quoted from PinJim:No offense, but I don’t buy it.
First, what PPE? It’ll be months before it’s available to the general public, at best. And even when it is, I don’t see people wearing it to work, the store, etc.
Second, it’s not who we are. Humans are social animals. We will eventually accept that people will get sick so we can go to the mall, have parties, head to the amusement park, etc. I’m not very social, in fact, I’m an introvert. But even I want to get out. And it’s been a few weeks.
A lot of people will die. That’s my prediction. And eventually it’ll work it’s way through society, and we’ll gain resistance. Sucks being an animal. But we are, and it’s not a perfect world.
Anyone who says 100,000 dead is not being truthful. Sorry, not buying it. Million, millions. I’m sorry for those older people in our communities. I’ll do my part to distance and hope a solution comes forth....
I’m going to go out on a limb here, and guess the total will be closer to 100,000 than 1,000,000.
Quoted from Jaybird815:I’m going to go out on a limb here, and guess the total will be closer to 100,000 than 1,000,000.
Well I guessing gambling isn’t approved here. If it was, I’d put $50 on > 1 million dead from coronavirus in the US before the end of 2021.
The math for less doesn’t make sense to me, short of a vaccine.
Quoted from PinJim:Well I guessing gambling isn’t approved here. If it was, I’d put $50 on > 1 million dead from coronavirus in the US before the end of 2021.
The math for less doesn’t make sense to me, short of a vaccine.
how will you collect if your one of the dead ones?..think this thing out..
Quoted from belairjoe:how will you collect if your one of the dead ones?..think this thing out..
Good point. Make it $1k. If I’m dead, call the debt collectors. If I live, I, coming for my money.
One of my team members told me his wife (a nurse) was offered $100/hr to head to NYC to help. Nothing to see here folks, it’s all under control. Only 100,000 will die, nothing to worry about. Right.
Quoted from belairjoe:how will you collect if your one of the dead ones?..think this thing out..
Pin Jim is now in my will for $50
Question for anybody.
I just filled out my census. Nosy mofos.
What should I do with mom's that came to her empty house? Throw it in the trash?
I tried to start it online, but they weren't happy with just nobody living there.
Look, my math may not be popular. I’m just saying this: I’m not buying the advertised numbers. It’s to control the masses. Do the math. It doesn’t add up. Gonna be a lot of dead people, mostly our older population. It sucks, my parents are old. My wife’s parents are old.
We aren’t shutting down past June 1st, and even that is a pipe dream. The lower class will riot and loot - they’ll be out of work and their kids need to eat. What would you do in their positions? Anyone want civil unrest? Keep the economy shut down.
People I’ll die. We’ll survive as a race. My kids I’ll make it. My parents will not. It may repeat and I’ll die. Better than the Spanish flu which killed young adults....
Quoted from PinJim:Good point. Make it $1k. If I’m dead, call the debt collectors. If I live, I, coming for my money.
One of my team members told me his wife (a nurse) was offered $100/hr to head to NYC to help. Nothing to see here folks, it’s all under control. Only 100,000 will die, nothing to worry about. Right.
sounds good!..lets hope we can both get moderated on a thread about this say by thanksgiving?
Quoted from Jaybird815:If anybody is in or knows someone laid off in the restaurant business, Fieri’s relief fund is giving $500 grants
The man, the myth, the legend.
All hail the king of Flavor Town.
PinJim I’m also pessimistic but there are a few things that could still turn this around. The malaria drug is a big one, and we should know in 2-4 weeks how it works on a study of several thousand people. There’s also a strong incentive to protect those who are most vulnerable, like my elderly mom who lives with us. We just have to be careful not to let our guard down for a few years, which is difficult but not impossible. I hope by now most elderly folks are taking this seriously, and will stay in self-preservation mode.
Quoted from PinJim:You do realize this is contagious? The current infection rate is 570 per million. I wholly understand that distancing is slowing it down. But distancing won’t go on forever. We will go back to work and it will spread.
Misinformation? I don’t think so. Numbers don’t lie. And my 2% is an estimated kill rate. Maybe it’s half that, maybe it’s twice that. The jury is out on the kill rate.
I love math, and I’m failing to see their 100k number, short of a vaccine.
A few incorrect assumptions.
The most recent studies put the fatality rate at .66%, but it is likely going to end up less than that. It is not the 2% that was once believed.
Secondly, the entire population doesnt get infected. The current infection rate is around 10%.
Thirdly, once herd immunity is established, around 60% of the population, the virus R0 or rate of infection quickly drops below 1 and the virus dies as it's no longer spread.
There's a lot of confusion between case fatality rate, confirmed fatality rate and mortality rate and unfortunately media uses them interchangeably and they aren't the same.
This link towards the bottom does a good job of explaining it:
Quoted from cait001:Today's death totals are staggering:
Italy +837
Spain +748
USA +742
France +499
Oh my.... 
Quoted from OLDPINGUY:[quoted image]
Missing one type of person. Engineer. I say that glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
Quoted from robertmee:A few incorrect assumptions.
The most recent studies put the fatality rate at .66%, but it is likely going to end up less than that. It is not the 2% that was once believed.
Secondly, the entire population doesnt get infected. The current infection rate is around 10%.
Thirdly, once herd immunity is established, around 60% of the population, the virus R0 or rate of infection quickly drops below 1 and the virus dies as it's no longer spread.
There's a lot of confusion between case fatality rate, confirmed fatality rate and mortality rate and unfortunately media uses them interchangeably and they aren't the same.
This link towards the bottom does a good job of explaining it:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Infection rate is guessed. Only certain people are getting tested.
Quoted from robertmee:Secondly, the entire population doesnt get infected. The current infection rate is around 10%.
Thirdly, once herd immunity is established, around 60% of the population, the virus R0 or rate of infection quickly drops below 1 and the virus dies as it's no longer spread.
How do you get to 60% “herd immunity” with a 10% infection rate?
Quoted from swampfire:How do you get to 60% “herd immunity” with a 10% infection rate?
Stupid math.
Quoted from robertmee:A few incorrect assumptions.
The most recent studies put the fatality rate at .66%, but it is likely going to end up less than that. It is not the 2% that was once believed.
Secondly, the entire population doesnt get infected. The current infection rate is around 10%.
Thirdly, once herd immunity is established, around 60% of the population, the virus R0 or rate of infection quickly drops below 1 and the virus dies as it's no longer spread.
There's a lot of confusion between case fatality rate, confirmed fatality rate and mortality rate and unfortunately media uses them interchangeably and they aren't the same.
This link towards the bottom does a good job of explaining it:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Data source for .66% kill rate? I haven’t seen anything with a kill rate that low.
You are saying 90% of the population won’t get it? Why? Immune? Distancing?
Quoted from swampfire:How do you get to 60% “herd immunity” with a 10% infection rate?
Infection rate is probability...its not a pure multiplier of a set population.
Quoted from PinJim:Data source for .66% kill rate? I haven’t seen anything with a kill rate that low.
You are saying 90% of the population won’t get it? Why? Immune? Distancing?
No, infection rate is not a set multiplier of a population set....its a probability. With enough time, the number infected increases.
Quoted from PinJim:Data source for .66% kill rate? I haven’t seen anything with a kill rate that low.
You are saying 90% of the population won’t get it? Why? Immune? Distancing?
Quoted from robertmee:Infection rate is probability...its not a pure multiplier of a set population.
Sorry, what kind of answer is that?
If we need 60% infection rate to achieve herd immunity, how do you achieve that with a 10% infection rate?
Are you saying 90% of people are immune?
Quoted from robertmee:The most recent studies put the fatality rate at .66%, but it is likely going to end up less than that. It is not the 2% that was once believed.
Secondly, the entire population doesnt get infected. The current infection rate is around 10%.
Thirdly, once herd immunity is established, around 60% of the population, the virus R0 or rate of infection quickly drops below 1 and the virus dies as it's no longer spread.
population of USA: 327.2 million
fatality rate: .66 %
estimated population spread: 60%
Estimated fatalities: 1,295,712
Hopefully .66% is indeed the high-end.....
Quoted from Jaybird815:Stupid math.
That was unnecessary....
Quoted from robertmee:That was unnecessary....
Quoted from cait001:population of USA: 327.2 million
fatality rate: .66 %
estimated population spread: 60%
Estimated fatalities: 1,295,712
Hopefully .66% is indeed the high-end.....
Exactly. Even an optimistic outlook is well in excess of 100k. We are being misled to control the masses.
Quoted from PinJim:Sorry, what kind of answer is that?
If we need 60% infection rate to achieve herd immunity, how do you achieve that with a 10% infection rate?
Are you saying 90% of people are immune?
No....infection rate, incidence rate, rate of attack...all synonymous...but it's the probability of infection or new cases over a given time.
https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section2.html
Quoted from cait001:population of USA: 327.2 million
fatality rate: .66 %
estimated population spread: 60%
Estimated fatalities: 1,295,712
Hopefully .66% is indeed the high-end.....
Based on the assumption that a lot of people are contracting the disease and having minor or no symptoms, it probably will be.
Quoted from Zablon:[quoted image]
Thanks Zablon
unfortunately it was too small to use. Can you fix this one.
Pretty Please!
IMG_4494 (resized).JPGQuoted from PinJim:Second, it’s not who we are. Humans are social animals. We will eventually accept that people will get sick so we can go to the mall, have parties, head to the amusement park, etc. I’m not very social, in fact, I’m an introvert. But even I want to get out. And it’s been a few weeks.
What kind of weak human being can’t sit on his couch for a couple months to help save American lives. Past generations were asked to go off to war for years at a time. What an embarrassment......
Quoted from PinJim:Exactly. Even an optimistic outlook is well in excess of 100k. We are being misled to control the .
So you're expecting 32 million deaths worldwide?
Quoted from Extraballz:What kind of weak human being can’t sit on his couch for a couple months to help save American lives. Past generations were asked to go off to war for years at a time. What an embarrassment......
Most people. Sorry, it’s the truth.
Quoted from robertmee:So you're expecting 32 million deaths worldwide?
I’ll run the math tomorrow.
Things are already getting crazy.
Shots fired at Pa. Sheetz after man coughs, doesn’t cover mouth amid coronavirus epidemic.
https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/shots-fired-at-pa-sheetz-after-man-coughs-doesnt-cover-mouth-amid-coronavirus-epidemic-report.html
Pa. woman coughed on officers, told them she had coronavirus as they arrested her.
https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/pa-woman-coughed-on-officers-told-them-she-had-coronavirus-as-they-arrested-her-police.html
Elderly woman dies after being smacked for not social distancing:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/29/elderly-woman-dies-after-being-shoved-for-not-social-distancing-sources/
Quoted from arcademojo:Things are already getting crazy.
Shots fired at Pa. Sheetz after man coughs, doesn’t cover mouth amid coronavirus epidemic.
https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/shots-fired-at-pa-sheetz-after-man-coughs-doesnt-cover-mouth-amid-coronavirus-epidemic-report.html
Pa. woman coughed on officers, told them she had coronavirus as they arrested her.
https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/pa-woman-coughed-on-officers-told-them-she-had-coronavirus-as-they-arrested-her-police.html
Elderly woman dies after being smacked for not social distancing:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/29/elderly-woman-dies-after-being-shoved-for-not-social-distancing-sources/
That's the fear.....social anarchy, depression, desperation, and crime are going to be the ugly byproducts of economic shutdown. At some point, there will be pushback against stay at home orders. I expect constitutional challenges too.
Quoted from robertmee:So you're expecting 32 million deaths worldwide?
Quoted from PinJim:I’ll run the math tomorrow.
Quick math In my head the other day I estimated 300 million. But I’d prefer someone more educated then I am to tell me a better number. Because that freaks me out.
Quoted from arcademojo:Things to do during the shut down.
1: Watch Tiger King. Completed
ok now go re-watch all of Twin Peaks including the new season
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