@oldpinguy, there were no mandatory quarantines today, per your postings yesterday. Any updates?
(Topic ID: 264520)
This topic is closed.
Quoted from loneacer:Axe throwing has gotten popular here in the midwest in the last couple years. I don't really get it, but I hear a lot of people talking about it.
There were a dozen booths at IAPPA last year, and none the year before....from live axes, to velcro inflatable for kids.....Surprisingly, all the booths were busy!
Quoted from CrazyLevi:Perhaps they should wait till we get our shit together to come back.
It'll give them more time to take in all the sights in Rome.
Pleasant Hill, MO
Quoted from Jaybird815:Red Neck darts
I guess it's the new bowling. They even call them axe throwing lanes. They serve you greasy food and alcohol and then you go throw axes. What could go wrong?
In the second appeal in a week, the American Medical Association called on the Trump administration on Friday to address a “critical shortage” of coronavirus testing kits and personal protective gear for health care professionals that “remains unmet.”
“For days, physicians and frontline healthcare workers have been sounding the alarm that there is nowhere near enough PPE [personal protective equipment] ... a shortage that endangers patients and jeopardizes the entire response to this virus,” Dr. Patrice Harris, president of the AMA, said in a statement.
Quoted from BobSacamano:pinball_gizzard
1) Do you have enough masks, gloves and hand sanitizer? Are
home-made masksbetter than nothing? Here's an interesting article on
various types of materialsand how well they block virus/bacteria particles.
2) How does a BiPAP machine differ from a the "ventilator" that we're hearing about shortages of in the news? My father had ALS and used a
Trilogy BiPapwith a face mask (non-invasive), so I have some experience with that device (and 1 other brand I can't remember the name of). My understanding is that if he would have chosen invasive ventilation with a tracheostomy, he would have been kept on the same Trilogy ventilator. We returned his device to the VA Hospital because it was loaned to us, but I know that at the time you could purchase them online (I looked into buying a backup). Obviously they're not going to take them away from ALS patients, but I know some sleep apnea patients get prescribed BiPAPs (in addition to CPAPs). Could a CPAP machine be converted to a BiPAP machine? Or is the solution to just have the manufacturers ramp up production? On another note, I saw an article that showed where someone turned an
Ambu Bag into a mechanized ventilator.
Thanks for taking your time to answer questions, and thank you and all your support staff for saving lives! My sister is a nurse in Minneapolis and while I wish she could stay quarantined and safe at home, she recognizes that she's got a job to do.
1). Short answer is no. Gloves are ok and most hospitals had a pretty decent supply of sanitizer on hand so I don't see those in short supply as yet around here but my area is still in the early stages vs California or New York. N-95 masks are the big issue right now.
2). BiPAP uses a face fitting mask to add extra air pressure during inspiration and exhalation vs a ventilator that uses a tube that is inserted into the trachea and secured there with an inflatable balloon. It is used as a kind of bridge between breathing on your own and being on a ventilator. The problem is the BiPAP may end up aerosolizing the virus in the room and cause more risk for the healthcare workers so some ICU docs are recommending against using it in these patients. Ventilators have hepa filters to filter out the virus and keep it from entering the air from the machine. Again, this is all very early and people are doing the best they can with the information they have.
Quoted from cottonm4:Thanks. I did not know you could stratify this table by clicking the arrows up top. In each column, too. And even alphabetically as shown here.
[quoted image]
Yeah, it’s a pretty sweet site. The only thing I wish they had was “deaths per Million”, so that we could see where we are relative to other countries. The best way to fact-check our infection count is to compare the US to another country that’s reached the same death rate (per Million). Everything should be normalized by population IMO.
Leduc, AB
The American Company that my employer contracts to, today shut down all its North American sites. We get at least 2 weeks off. That's fine but with everything closed, and travel restrictions, there is only a few things to do. Fixing pins will be high on the list. 
I'd love to take off for a few weeks and fly fish as I highly doubt you'll get the virus from trout problem is its too friggin cold
Quoted from PantherCityPins:Short answer is no.
Read we need 3.5 billion masks and feds have “plans” to buy 500 million...soon?
Quoted from Wickerman2:Read we need 3.5 billion masks and feds have “plans” to buy 500 million...soon?
why so many?
Quoted from Jaybird815:Red Neck darts
Out here when we play horseshoes we refer to it as red neck golf.
Quoted from PtownPin:why so many?
Single use. For proper (safe) usage every worker involved will need several a day.
For example, you take a meal break, you should use a new mask when returning to work.
Thanks for the reply.
Another question I had was how many people does it take to care for an average COVID-19 patient or is there no such thing as an "average" COVID-19 patient (because of all the other issues: diabetes, heart conditions, etc)? The pictures I've seen from Italy just show room upon room of patients lying in beds, hooked up to ventilators and other medical equipment. Early on, I heard about it taking multiple respiratory technicians (3 was the number I heard) to "run/manage a patient on a ventilator". Are medical professionals (nurses, doctors, technicians) the choke point or ventilators? If we come up with enough ventilators, will we be able to re-assign other medical professionals to the job or maybe use trained/trainable personnel from the armed forces?
Without sounding too morbid, what's killing those who are admitted to the hospital with COVID-19? Is it pneumonia, ARDS, or some other pre-existing condition (diabetes, heart disease, etc)?
Sydney
Quoted from loneacer:So you object to all the leaders telling their citizens that?
"German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that up to 70% of the country's population - some 58 million people - could contract the coronavirus."
"As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalization,” states the Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials"
"California governor projects "56% of state's population will be infected" in the next 8 weeks"
I get it... The shock method of communicating does have its benefits - helps pound the point home for folks thinking they don't have to worry about it, and pushing individuals and companies to become part of the solution - whether that's increasing the numbers of test kits, producing more ventilators, reducing vaccine testing/time to market, self-quarantining, etc. etc.
That being said, those numbers aren't supported by extrapolating the current numbers and historical data, not even close. It's just adding to the hysteria, hoarding, over-reactive binge shopping, etc. etc. I'm being personally responsible, as well as my family, but to me the sky is not falling, and the world is NOT coming to an end!
Quoted from Dono:I get it... The shock method of communicating does have its benefits - helps pound the point home for folks thinking they don't have to worry about it, and pushing individuals and companies to become part of the solution - whether that's increasing the numbers of test kits, producing more ventilators, reducing vaccine testing/time to market, self-quarantining, etc. etc.
That being said, those numbers aren't supported by extrapolating the current numbers and historical data, not even close. It's just adding to the hysteria, hoarding, over-reactive binge shopping, etc. etc. I'm being personally responsible, as well as my family, but to me the sky is not falling, and the world is NOT coming to an end!
What is your basis for saying the numbers don't add up?
Quoted from BobSacamano:Pinball_Gizzard
Thanks for the reply.
Another question I had was how many people does it take to care for an average COVID-19 patient or is there no such thing as an "average" COVID-19 patient (because of all the other issues: diabetes, heart conditions, etc)? The pictures I've seen from Italy just show room upon room of patients lying in beds, hooked up to ventilators and other medical equipment. Early on, I heard about it taking multiple respiratory technicians (3 was the number I heard) to "run/manage a patient on a ventilator". Are medical professionals (nurses, doctors, technicians) the choke point or ventilators? If we come up with enough ventilators, will we be able to re-assign other medical professionals to the job or maybe use trained/trainable personnel from the armed forces?
Without sounding too morbid, what's killing those who are admitted to the hospital with COVID-19? Is it pneumonia, ARDS, or some other pre-existing condition (diabetes, heart disease, etc)?
There’s really no average patient. Based on Chinese data, 80% of patients will have mild to moderate symptoms and can recover at home. 15% will have more severe symptoms and will require hospital care but not ICU care. 5% require ICU care. A typical ICU patient has one nurse assigned to them, several doctors, a respiratory therapist, phlebotomist to draw labs, radiology tech for X-rays, etc.
Both physical ventilators and people to care for the patients can be a limiting factor. If an ICU doc gets COVID-19 and has to be home quarantined that really hurts as they are hard to replace. That’s why docs like myself who don’t normally manage vents may have to in a surge situation. Tough to say right now but that’s why there is such a focus on flattening the curve so we don’t get there.
COVID-19 patients die from viral pneumonia and ARDS which makes it impossible to get enough oxygen into their blood despite full ventilator support. Older patients, those with lung disease and other conditions that suppress their immune system (like diabetes) are more likely to get severe disease and may have less lung reserve to be able to survive the pneumonia phase.
Quoted from wolfemaaan:That’s a little better chart. But it doesn’t account for age, health, previous conditions, etc. Face it here. The first chart on this thread says it all. Most people will live, and like the “experts” say old or vulnerable people will not. I’m curious how many Twenty year olds on this thread think this is overrated vs 50+ that are screaming chicken little
Sounds like the facts are in, don’t get this if your old and grumpy. I’d like to see the stats on young healthy people that already got the virus. I bet that number is next to zero
You are the minority here. Anyone can carry the virus to anyone else, regardless of age. It can kill a bunch of old people and some young people. I choose to do what I can to help this to not happen. If my actions do nothing, I’m ok with that as well.
You can choose to do whatever you want but please don’t expect others to follow this minority view. Just remember, you only have control over your own actions. I honestly hope no one I or you know closely is directly affected. Friends of relatives of mine in Florida and Seattle have lost loved ones that are not elderly and did not have health issues.
I hope you are right and that everyone is just overreacting, shutting things down.
Not certain what you have against old people. Your stance seems to suggest if the younger spreads the disease to the older, oh fucking well. Don’t be THAT guy.
Just got off the phone with my dad. His friends are down in Yuma. He's late 70s, has serious medical issues, no insurance and was like, yeah maybe we'll come back in a few weeks. Just clueless
Quoted from dirkdiggler:Just got off the phone with my dad. His friends are down in Yuma. He's late 70s, has serious medical issues, no insurance and was like, yeah maybe we'll come back in a few weeks. Just clueless
I hope he is able to stay inside and be safe. He is the exact demograph that I worry for the most.
This is a very good article to explain the strategies that could be employed and why it’s so important. This is the stuff that all news outlets should be reporting on, not pointing fingers everywhere.
Quoted from PantherCityPins:There’s really no average patient. Based on Chinese data, 80% of patients will have mild to moderate symptoms and can recover at home. 15% will have more severe symptoms and will require hospital care but not ICU care. 5% require ICU care. A typical ICU patient has one nurse assigned to them, several doctors, a respiratory therapist, phlebotomist to draw labs, radiology tech for X-rays, etc.
Both physical ventilators and people to care for the patients can be a limiting factor. If an ICU doc gets COVID-19 and has to be home quarantined that really hurts as they are hard to replace. That’s why docs like myself who don’t normally manage vents may have to in a surge situation. Tough to say right now but that’s why there is such a focus on flattening the curve so we don’t get there.
COVID-19 patients die from viral pneumonia and ARDS which makes it impossible to get enough oxygen into their blood despite full ventilator support. Older patients, those with lung disease and other conditions that suppress their immune system (like diabetes) are more likely to get severe disease and may have less lung reserve to be able to survive the pneumonia phase.
Thank you for what you’re doing and thank you for sharing with the group.
I find your posts extremely informative and really appreciate it.
Quoted from Edster:Having people say you are over reacting is way better that under reacting.
What I have been doing when I have to go out, I wear vinyl gloves. I stay away from folks. Once I finish shopping or gassing up, the gloves get thrown away. New ones on if I go to another place. When I come home, hands are washed, phone is wiped with alcohol, hands are washed again. Items are put away, hands are washed and then I have a shower. If this doesn't help keep me safe, I don't know what will???
I see very few people wearing gloves.
Good ideas all, but disposable gloves are just about as hard to come by as TP, face masks and hand sanitizer. Hoarders are a serious problem.
Quoted from dirkdiggler:Just got off the phone with my dad. His friends are down in Yuma. He's late 70s, has serious medical issues, no insurance and was like, yeah maybe we'll come back in a few weeks. Just clueless
My parents are both in their 70s with multiple health issues. I.E. they both check multiple boxes in the high risk category.
Neither of them are taking this seriously.
They live in California so there is not a lot I can do.
Just got off the phone with my sister (who is taking this serious) and she stocked them up on food and what not.
It’s crazy because I’m pissed off at them, but at the same time it scares the hell out of me.
Quoted from RTR:What is your basis for saying the numbers don't add up?
If you look at mainland China's population - latest census... that would be ~1,400,000,000, with infection numbers flatlining (actually slightly decreasing) around 80K. For argument sake let's assume China's reporting sucks, and they're not truthful/or accurate with their testing... so let's increase that 80K number by 5X (putting total cases at 400K), and do the math... unless I'm missing something it's a mere .028% of the population CONSERVATIVELY at this point.
Sure you could argue China was quicker to the punch, so potentially far less cases per capita than the US; I get that; however you could also argue that China has huge areas of intense population density + a much higher percentage of smokers, so their death rate should be HIGHER than the US... a lot of other factors, sure but still...
So IMHO, for the "leadership" of California coming out with a statement touting a 70% infection rate potential, well, IMO that's just silly.
Quoted from Dono:So IMHO, for the "leadership" of California coming out with a statement touting a 70% infection rate potential, well, IMO that's just silly.
I suspect they pulled the numbers from the British (or similar) report I linked to on the first page of this thread. And I quote:
In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic.
Folks with far more expertise in epidemiological modeling than you or I compiled that report. Crib notes is if you do nothing deaths in millions for USA and Britain and high infection rate.
If you do everything and supply your heath care system, deaths in thousands.
And everywhere in between depending on what you do as a society.
They didn’t look at antivirals. They didn’t look at economic calamity. The thrust of the argument is if you want to prevent deaths, shut it all down.
Now there is a fair point to be made about the absolute shit show you produce if you shut it all down for 18 months. So governments at local, state, and national equivalents around the globe will need to figure out how to navigate all that.
Quoted from Dono:If you look at mainland China's population - latest census... that would be ~1,400,000,000, with infection numbers flatlining (actually slightly decreasing) around 80K. For argument sake let's assume China's reporting sucks, and they're not truthful/or accurate with their testing... so let's increase that 80K number by 5X (putting total cases at 400K), and do the math... unless I'm missing something it's a mere .028% of the population CONSERVATIVELY at this point.
Sure you could argue China was quicker to the punch, so potentially far less cases per capita than the US; I get that; however you could also argue that China has huge areas of intense population density + a much higher percentage of smokers, so their death rate should be HIGHER than the US... a lot of other factors, sure but still...
So IMHO, for the "leadership" of California coming out with a statement touting a 70% infection rate potential, well, IMO that's just silly.
Over a years time H1N1 2009 was estimated to have infected 60 million people in the US alone. 1 in 5 Americans. This virus is more contagious, has a longer incubation time and can be spread by people with no symptoms. Doing some simple math you can see the potential of masssive infected numbers. Wish I was wrong.
Quoted from Dono:If you look at mainland China's population - latest census... that would be ~1,400,000,000, with infection numbers flatlining (actually slightly decreasing) around 80K. For argument sake let's assume China's reporting sucks, and they're not truthful/or accurate with their testing... so let's increase that 80K number by 5X (putting total cases at 400K), and do the math... unless I'm missing something it's a mere .028% of the population CONSERVATIVELY at this point.
Sure you could argue China was quicker to the punch, so potentially far less cases per capita than the US; I get that; however you could also argue that China has huge areas of intense population density + a much higher percentage of smokers, so their death rate should be HIGHER than the US... a lot of other factors, sure but still...
So IMHO, for the "leadership" of California coming out with a statement touting a 70% infection rate potential, well, IMO that's just silly.
You are correct on one point - you are missing something. I urge you to read this article. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 It gives real numbers based on epidemiological principles. It shows a path forward with some short term pain, but longer term results. Not a 12-18 month lockdown of the whole country.
It goes into what China and South Korea did to stop the spread. It is nothing like what we are doing here. Our efforts thus far look more like free pizza night at Chucky Cheese compared to what China did in a very short span of time. They did it like that bc they knew it would get out of control fast. Italy is a great example of a country that let it spiral out of control.
Quoted from Extraballz:Over a years time H1N1 2009 was estimated to have infected 60 million people in the US alone. 1 in 5 Americans. This virus is more contagious, has a longer incubation time and can be spread by people with no symptoms. Doing some simple math you can see the potential of masssive infected numbers. Wish I was wrong.
This all true, great point. However each pandemic must be looked at in its own light... they're totally different viruses, each with its own characteristics, so comparing H1N1/SARS/Spanish flu/polio/MERS, etc. etc. to COVID-19 may not be very fruitful in determining how this one will pan out. That's why I'm more focused at statistics for this particular virus; my view is we can gauge more accurately what to expect by reviewing what's already happened in countries where the pandemic evolved or spread to prior to making it onto our shores.
We shall see.
Quoted from RTR:You are correct on one point - you are missing something. I urge you to read this article. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 It gives real numbers based on epidemiological principles. It shows a path forward with some short term pain, but longer term results. Not a 12-18 month lockdown of the whole country.
It goes into what China and South Korea did to stop the spread. It is nothing like what we are doing here. Our efforts thus far look more like free pizza night at Chucky Cheese compared to what China did in a very short span of time. They did it like that bc they knew it would get out of control fast. Italy is a great example of a country that let it spiral out of control.
I just can't buy this guy's interpretation of the current situation and how it extrapolates out to 20-35 million cases, but again, to each his own; I'll continue to look at global numbers abroad and here to interpret reality on my own terms. Everyone should do their own research, and not base reality on one article, one media outlet, one pundit, one politician, etc.
Time for a cocktail. Good night and God bless!
Quoted from Dono:This all true, great point. However each pandemic must be looked at in its own light... they're totally different viruses, each with its own characteristics, so comparing H1N1/SARS/Spanish flu/polio/MERS, etc. etc. to COVID-19 may not be very fruitful in determining how this one will pan out. That's why I'm more focused at statistics for this particular virus; my view is we can gauge more accurately what to expect by reviewing what's already happened in countries where the pandemic evolved or spread to prior to making it onto our shores.
We shall see.
OK, let's expect China numbers, but with Italy's effort - giddy-up! Sounds like a plan!
Quoted from Edenecho:Ive been hearing alot that masks only really helps if those infected are wearing them, and not really making much of a difference for those not infected yet.
One of the points was also that non-infected people are more prone to touching their facial area because they are wearing masks.
if that were true no people acting as testers, doctors, nurses would wear a mask ever. Think about what you are saying. of course they protect you. Droppings are what get into your mouth, nose from people nearby. A mask stops that.
Anyone else just tired of hearing the word “unprecedented” all week long?
I look forward to more creativity next week.
Latest data compared with Italy. We should have responded much earlier and tested rigorously. We picked up 6,000 cases today. Nearly 50%.
Yes, the spike is partly due to a flood of recent tests coming back positive. But it also underscores how many we missed... and how much bigger the actual situation really is.
Stay vigilant, folks. Keep your eyes on the population centers like New York, Seattle, and LA.... and expect what is happening there will likely be happening in your town soon.
If you have business to do, you'd better damn well get it done right now.
Quoted from o-din:I think the only thing to do if you are stuck at home is to have some fun.
I heard that will make me go blind? Is that true?
Quoted from snyper2099:You are the minority here. Anyone can carry the virus to anyone else, regardless of age. It can kill a bunch of old people and some young people. I choose to do what I can to help this to not happen. If my actions do nothing, I’m ok with that as well.
You can choose to do whatever you want but please don’t expect others to follow this minority view. Just remember, you only have control over your own actions. I honestly hope no one I or you know closely is directly affected. Friends of relatives of mine in Florida and Seattle have lost loved ones that are not elderly and did not have health issues.
I hope you are right and that everyone is just overreacting, shutting things down.
Not certain what you have against old people. Your stance seems to suggest if the younger spreads the disease to the older, oh fucking well. Don’t be THAT guy.
Anybody can get it but that’s not who’s dying. Nothing against old people. Your welcome to stay home and be grumpy as everyone recommends you to do. And if you don’t like being around people having fun, then don’t be around us. If you stay indoors you won’t have to worry about that, right? Meanwhile I enjoyed another day outdoors and noticed a lot of people were doing the same. Maybe they didn’t get your permission?
Quoted from o-din:I think the best thing to do if you are stuck at home is to have some fun.
Quoted from Gunnut40:I heard that will make me go blind? Is that true?
Blind drunk, maybe.
Are you a capitalist? Or are you a socialist?
I suppose that depends if you need money or not.
Sometimes everybody can benefit from a little government help. Many of the less fortunate need more govt. help more often than others.
I am watching the airline industry turn into a den of socialists. What I don't want to be hearing about is stock buybacks and executive bonuses. It is time for many of these overpaid bastards to step up.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/business/airlines-payroll-cuts-coronavirus/index.html
Quoted from cottonm4:Are you a capitalist? Or are you a socialist?
I suppose that depends if you need money or not.
Sometimes everybody can benefit from a little government help. Many of the less fortunate need more govt. more often than others.
I am watching the airline industry turn into a den of socialists. What I don't want to be hearing about is stock buybacks and executive bonuses. It is time for many of these overpaid bastards to step up.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/business/airlines-payroll-cuts-coronavirus/index.html
Stock Thread?
Quoted from wolfemaaan:Stock Thread?
Shouldn’t you be out partying, not giving a shit about anything? Maybe howling out at the moon?! I wonder why you get so many downvotes..how about making a somewhat thoughtful comment for a change?
How many people had the disease and recovered but were never tested? I think the statistics we have up to this point are very much incomplete.
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