The Big Lebowski Preorder Club (Members Only)


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2 years ago


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#4801 38 days ago

Dutch:

image (resized).jpeg

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#4802 38 days ago

My email to Dutch:

Pros: Games go out, games get made, Dutch Pinball continues. Gary Stern & Jack are now minority holders in their companies and they've all been better for it.

Cons: None. In my opinion, not doing this deal results in 0% for you, your buyers and the future of DP. At the end of the day - Stern and JJP had their own factories and still needed help. Without a factory - being partners with ARA is without a doubt the best and only course. Maybe this wasn't the ideal from the start - bit this is where we are now. It's the only solution. I don't see another investor swooping in to save this thing. It's a blessing that ARA wants to continue!

Please go for it!

#4803 38 days ago
Quoted from Skins:

F'n Amateurs

Yeah, they definitely could have used that business consultant from the start...

Their amateur business acumen have them in deep water...

#4804 38 days ago

Stupid question, but if it all falls through and as a last resort, is there any chance that Stern or JJP could take over the TBL from DP?

#4805 38 days ago
Quoted from Bearcat:

Stupid question, but if it all falls through and as a last resort, is there any chance that Stern or JJP could take over the TBL from DP?

Why would they want to? Stern is rolling out SW and JJP is getting some good press with DI. Neither need the headaches that would come with trying to save it.

Early in my career, the company I worked with saved a competitor from bankruptcy because it would be bad for the industry.....Today, that company is larger than the one I worked with.
Looking back on it now I am sure they wished they had made a different decision.

#4806 38 days ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

My email to Dutch:
Pros: Games go out, games get made, Dutch Pinball continues. Gary Stern & Jack are now minority holders in their companies and they've all been better for it.
Cons: None. In my opinion, not doing this deal results in 0% for you, your buyers and the future of DP. At the end of the day - Stern and JJP had their own factories and still needed help. Without a factory - being partners with ARA is without a doubt the best and only course. Maybe this wasn't the ideal from the start - bit this is where we are now. It's the only solution. I don't see another investor swooping in to save this thing. It's a blessing that ARA wants to continue!
Please go for it!

So the big question is, how big of a hit would an investor have to take in order to supply the pre-paid games. ARA might be the only possible solution, assuming that the initial investment would be less for ARA than an outside investor.

#4807 38 days ago

Con: DP is no longer DP

Think about it... the reason you all bought into these games is the direction and 'difference' these guys picked for their games and themes. When they are no longer in control, who is to say the new boss aligns with their risk tolerance or creative choices??

This is a sad turning point if true

This is why people start up sub companies to run projects... so if things go south, they contain the damage.

#4808 38 days ago

I see no other good option for DP. If this falls apart or they get diff investors and thus need a new manufacturer...thus more delays...goodbye customer confidence, where does that lead the future of all this, who will buy anything? DP should keep in mind all of the investors right here, that put their money down 3 years ago, and make it right. Hope so, so much time has gone by...

#4809 38 days ago

...and why not just get this thing effing done...you can always leave and start a new pinball company after this, but to not get what's promised delivered seems like the worst possible situation for their reputation and future. Get it done. If they can't come to agreement on future projects, walk away, start again in control.

#4810 38 days ago

If you assume 51% interest in a company that is way deep in debt then don't you have less than nothing to show for it? Don't you just assume someone elses debt then? I would say do it get the games made and lesson learned take your ball and go home... oh but we're gonna need that ball before you go...

13
#4811 38 days ago
Quoted from flynnibus:

Con: DP is no longer DP
Think about it... the reason you all bought into these games is the direction and 'difference' these guys picked for their games and themes. When they are no longer in control, who is to say the new boss aligns with their risk tolerance or creative choices??

If they can't manufacture or ship games, none is that matters. What they started and who they were in 2013 is irrelevant. It's 2017, the train is off the tracks. Egos and pride have to be cast aside here. Stern did it, they live. JJP did it, they live. You know who stuck to their pride and ego? John Popadiuk. Kevin Kulek.

The historical lesson is there. DP has been offered with a choice to save them, their games, their customers, their reputation, their future. If they think they can do it better without ARA, that's pride, arrogance and greed winning over sound logic. Without ARA, they will fail, and we're all fucked.

#4812 38 days ago

No good solutions here if you are DP--only cutting your losses choices. This just turned into one colossal bummer...

#4813 38 days ago

".. oh but we're gonna need that ball before you go..." LOL!!!

#4814 38 days ago

Will ARA care about code updates and make the game good? They have no programmer right now. What if they just produce as is and ship an incomplete game that will not get the needed code updates to make it a great game? That is what scares me.

#4815 38 days ago

Though it should not be for the 10K or so we've paid....maybe the pinball community will take it the rest of the way if that's the case. Step 1 - let's get these machines delivered...

-1
#4816 38 days ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

If they can't manufacture or ship games, none is that matters. What they started and who they were in 2013 is irrelevant. It's 2017, the train is off the tracks. Egos and pride have to be cast aside here. Stern did it, they live. JJP did it, they live. You know who stuck to their pride and ego? John Popadiuk. Kevin Kulek.

It does matter - to think it doesn't would mean saying "any business leader is the same as any other" which is clearly false.

You are only looking at those 40 games or these existing orders... that's just cleaning up the past. What good is a company that has no future? What good is a DP whose leadership doesn't understand the business or customers and decides the next project on their ideas and it's garbage. That's a ruined DP - maybe they shipped TBL and some or all of them.. but DP would still be done. So yes... there is a Con to the path... the Con being you have new leadership that is not the same as the old... if you valued the old.

The 'there is no con' argument is one that is only concerned with breaking up the TBL log-jam.. and it's a overly optimistic conclusion that assumes the new-DP would stick to their original deals. There is no guarantee of that. Let's not forget the new DP could just go through some legal hoops and shutdown the old company and reform in another shape (people seem to forget the Australian WOZ disaster it seems)

If people think it's just money holding up the deal... which people keep postulating it is... Money can come from other places besides ARA.

The idea ARA wants to own a pinball company partnership doesn't make sense to me. Want a bigger piece of the pie? Sure... own and direct? Doesn't add up...

#4817 38 days ago
Quoted from foxtj24:

get the needed code updates to make it a great game

I will keep repeating myself: the game is already complete by the standard of: every insert does something , all mode trees work. I personally will never get to the wizard mode.

Sure, you can do more but it's not some shell of game like people seem to want to think.

#4818 38 days ago
Quoted from cooked71:

How much did Jack have to "sell" to his investor stay afloat. Sounds like a similar path.
I'd speculate it's a Debt for equity swap. Dutch can't pay. All they've got to sell is goodwill.
Unless there is another angel investor floating around, sounds like the only way Dutch can possibly survive.

I don't think it's really comparable.

Given the situation, this would be a hostile takeover by a contractor / creditor with huge leverage over DP.

The investors in JJP, and Stern, had no leverage over them besides the opportunity cost of refusing capital when in a situation of total insolvency in Stern's case and a poor, unsustainable one in JJP's.

12
#4819 38 days ago
Quoted from flynnibus:

It does matter - to think it doesn't would mean saying "any business leader is the same as any other" which is clearly false.

DP aren't business leaders. They're guys who made a cool game, had someone else build it...and now are at the mercy of those building it.

Quoted from flynnibus:

You are only looking at those 40 games or these existing orders... that's just cleaning up the past. What good is a company that has no future?

Wrong. In this theoretical deal, ARA is going to build the rest of the Lebowski orders ...and if they can right this ship and make all pre-orderers whole, that gives new buyers confidence - they can sell MORE Lebowskis after that (given they want to renew the license) - also, BOP 3.0...they have the Proto, if this deal goes through, they'll be building those. And again, once this ship gets righted and DP/ARA have customer confidence - there CAN be a future. The entire future of DP hangs on this deal.

Quoted from flynnibus:

That's a ruined DP - maybe they shipped TBL and some or all of them.. but DP would still be done.

DP is done NOW. They can't ship shit, they can't sell future shit. No factory. No customer confidence. This deal gets them back on track. It's the only way.

Quoted from flynnibus:

So yes... there is a Con to the path... the Con being you have new leadership that is not the same as the old... if you valued the old.

We like DP's designs. We like their creative ideas. Do we like their leadership? F*CK NO! They NEEEED leadership. Then Barry & Jaap can do what they do best - design games.

Quoted from flynnibus:

If people think it's just money holding up the deal... which people keep postulating it is... Money can come from other places besides ARA.

Where? There are no pinball angel investors willing to dip into this muck. Made sense with Stern - they had a factory, employees and a history. Made sense with JJP, they had a factory, employees and a history...just needed some oversight and a new gameplan (and money). DP is 2 dudes. That's it. At this point, partnering with ARA is the only option that gives them a shot at being a legit pinball company and not a massive failure.

Quoted from flynnibus:

The idea ARA wants to own a pinball company partnership doesn't make sense to me. Want a bigger piece of the pie? Sure... own and direct? Doesn't add up...

They're looking at Stern - making millions, doing it right. They see the situation they're in, and they see the possibility of where it can go if done right. Barry & Jaap have the creative talent. ARA has the manufacturing infrastructure. Clearly shit didn't work when they were each in their own bubbles. They need to join forces to function!

#4820 38 days ago

BOOM. Eat it.

#4821 38 days ago
Quoted from SadSack:

What would DJT do?

I don't know if blaming the NYT would work, but I guess it's worth a try.

#4822 38 days ago

1. While I applaud DP for sending out more NSLs I really wish they would put more thought into what they communicate. The most recent NSL reveals one condition they have to take into consideration, but none of on this forum (including me) know the other conditions. So there no way of judging whether giving ARA a 51% share in the company is a good thing or not for DP. What DP's intention with this NSL was, was to inform us buyers that ARA is playing hard ball and difficult decisions have to be made, which takes time.

2. Forget the assumption that DP is broke. I have no reason to even assume that and nobody who suggested they are have any form of proof even remotely indicating that. The only reason they refused to pay ARA in the first place was because ARA raised the prices of the games due to poor project management and overpaying for parts on their end. In the decision not to pay ARA were principles involved, which is completely unrelated to whether DP could pay them.

3. Let's take a look at this from a different perspective: Why would ARA be interested in 51% of a broke company? Because DP isn't broke. ARA did the math and they like what's in it for them. Either they raise the price per game DP has to pay them (which ARA can decide on once they own 51% of the company), or they take a cut of DP's profit (which is what they will do if they own 51% of the company), or maybe even both. In case of the latter the profit will be less, but the money still comes in via what DP pays ARA extra per game. If ARA gets 51% of DP the question then is: will Jaap and Barry be comfortable working for ARA? Will there be enough in it for them? That's a question only they can answer. One can also wonder what Barry and Jaap will be doing once ARA owns 51% of DP. Keep in mind that ARA doesn't have any experience in selling pinball games. The collectors market they may be able to sell some games to, but the operators market requires a different approach. Being able to make games doesn't mean you're able to sell them in the qualtities you want them to sell.

So is there any good news? Actually yes. The fact that ARA is playing hard ball to take control of DP indicates the company could do very well once they start making games again. The other reason they may be playing hard ball is that ARA may think they have leverage over DP because they think they are the only ones who can build these games. So that's what Barry and Jaap are dealing with and that's why these negotiations take time. You don't want them to make a wrong decision by rushing things, so I suggest to let them take their time to give every option plenty of thought. It would also be incredibly short-sighted to just think about getting your game. It's about more than that. DP have shown they can design a kick ass game and it would improve the pinball landscape a lot if they would keep on doing so. That may only happen if there's enough in it for them. If there is, teaming with ARA may be a brilliant move, so I can only hope ARA will offer DP some very good prospects for the future – which should go a lot further than TBL.

#4823 38 days ago

Gettin' ready for more news...
09dcc515b636684e673609b91b9be237 (resized).jpg

#4824 38 days ago

Didn't they say at Texas they had a strong legal position? Now after meeting with the manufacturer their leverage is gone and their only option is to give up control of the company to continue. They've lied previously and yet we're all still willing to say the new 'news' is the truth. Sounds fishy, once again.

Please don't think these guys really care about you, I'd say they care about the $$$ (if there is any) and keeping themselves on the right side of the law when all is said and done.

#4825 38 days ago
Quoted from rosh:

Giving up 51% is giving up control, Jaap and Barry would not longer be calling the shots, and be basically employees. They would only accept this as a last resort. But at least they have that as an option vs just folding.
The plus side is that ARA appeared to be making design and engineering decisions that would make manufacturing easier, but potentially service/support harder and more expensive, they would now be more likely to balance the two. That would ultimately be a good thing for owners.
On the negative side, they may find this is not a business they want to be in, since they would be approaching it as a risk/reward/return on investment vs a passion/lifestyle business, which could lead to them folding the business, at which point Barry and Jaap are left with 49% of nothing.
I've been with start-up companies from the start, and once the original team loses controlling interest, things started to change in ways that is often contrary to the desires and vision of those who started it. Typically many of those folks, despite still having an ownership stake (although significantly diluted), leave the business, either by choice or are forced out. The last start-up I was with, after the third funding round, the VC's had controlling interest, and all of the senior leadership, except the CEO were gone within in a year or so. In many ways he was the face of the company, like Jack and Gary are, so there was a greater desire, on both sides, to have him stick around, but despite the title his control/direction of the company is certainly not the same.
Would love to see them get funding elsewhere, but at least this gives some sense of hope they can survive.

My experience is different. I've started venture backed companies, I've also taken them over, for most of my career. I've also seen board dysfunction and what that can lead to. The bottom line is that for most company structures, who owns the majority of shares is irrelevant to operations of the company except in "downside scenarios." By that I mean, unless the company is going through a massive takeover or coud d'etat where the board is being forced to change over to enable a deal of some kind, that ownership doesn't buy you much.

Instead, board composition and voting rights is relevant because they can hire or fire the CEO. In the strictest sense, yes, you work for the board as the CEO, but to be successful every board knows they have to let the CEO operate. If the CEO executes against expectations (even in small companies), the board almost always empowers them.

Most successful startups have sold more that 50% of their company by the time they exit or go public. It's the nature of the beast. When your company does not have the revenue or cash reserves to succeed, your one asset you have is your equity, so it's a rational deal to sell it to achieve the goals you want.

The key is to make sure that the governance of the board is set up in a way that encourages alignment of goals. If ARAs goals and DPs goals are not aligned (which, it seems, they should be, since both make money if machines are created and sold), then sure, it may not make sense to sell part of your company to them.

My opinion here is that they should do this deal, but they should ensure there is some sane way the company is structured so it's not arbitrary on how a management team would be replaced, if it is even possible.

24
#4826 38 days ago
Quoted from unigroove:

2. Forget the assumption that DP is broke. I have no reason to even assume that and nobody who suggested they are have any form of proof even remotely indicating that.

Charging $12.5K for BoP3.0 without a working prototype to show is a strong indication of cash shortage.

26
#4827 38 days ago
Quoted from unigroove:

Forget the assumption that DP is broke. I have no reason to even assume that and nobody who suggested they are have any form of proof even remotely indicating that.

Begins and ends with lack of refunds for anyone who wants out.

12
#4828 38 days ago
Quoted from unigroove:

3. Let's take a look at this from a different perspective: Why would ARA be interested in 51% of a broke company? Because DP isn't broke. ARA did the math and they like what's in it for them.

The simpler math is that DP is currently broke, but its value is in the right to produce 200 more TBLs, and that's why ARA wants equity.

#4829 38 days ago
Quoted from unigroove:

1. While I applaud DP for sending out more NSLs I really wish they would put more thought into what they communicate. The most recent NSL reveals one condition they have to take into consideration, but none of on this forum (including me) know the other conditions. So there no way of judging whether giving ARA a 51% share in the company is a good thing or not for DP. What DP's intention with this NSL was, was to inform us buyers that ARA is playing hard ball and difficult decisions have to be made, which takes time.
2. Forget the assumption that DP is broke. I have no reason to even assume that and nobody who suggested they are have any form of proof even remotely indicating that. The only reason they refused to pay ARA in the first place was because ARA raised the prices of the games due to poor project management and overpaying for parts on their end. In the decision not to pay ARA were principles involved, which is completely unrelated to whether DP could pay them.
3. Let's take a look at this from a different perspective: Why would ARA be interested in 51% of a broke company? Because DP isn't broke. ARA did the math and they like what's in it for them. Either they raise the price per game DP has to pay them (which ARA can decide on once they own 51% of the company), or they take a cut of DP's profit (which is what they will do if they own 51% of the company), or maybe even both. In case of the latter the profit will be less, but the money still comes in via what DP pays ARA extra per game. If ARA gets 51% of DP the question then is: will Jaap and Barry be comfortable working for ARA? Will there be enough in it for them? That's a question only they can answer. One can also wonder what Barry and Jaap will be doing once ARA owns 51% of DP. Keep in mind that ARA doesn't have any experience in selling pinball games. The collectors market they may be able to sell some games to, but the operators market requires a different approach. Being able to make games doesn't mean you're able to sell them in the qualtities you want them to sell.
So is there any good news? Actually yes. The fact that ARA is playing hard ball to take control of DP indicates the company could do very well once they start making games again. The other reason they may be playing hard ball is that ARA may think they have leverage over DP because they think they are the only ones who can build these games. So that's what Barry and Jaap are dealing with and that's why these negotiations take time. You don't want them to make a wrong decision by rushing things, so I suggest to let them take their time to give every option plenty of thought. It would also be incredibly short-sighted to just think about getting your game. It's about more than that. DP have shown they can design a kick ass game and it would improve the pinball landscape a lot if they would keep on doing so. That may only happen if there's enough in it for them. If there is, teaming with ARA may be a brilliant move, so I can only hope ARA will offer DP some very good prospects for the future – which should go a lot further than TBL.

Not sure I'd paint quite such an optimistic picture for DP or a potential partnership between them and ARA working in future, but generally I agree.

Particularly agree on your first point.

People, as per usual, are drastically oversimplifying this - and Dutch aren't helping. There will be a multitude of conditions that both parties will have and which will likely require lengthy negotiation to come to mutually agreeable terms, if they are to proceed with this option, or one similar to it. It can't possibly just be a transfer of ownership.

There would need to be numerous guarantees and provisos for both parties ... chief among them that Barry & Jaap will have considerable say over the machines, direction of the company, and guarantees of future investment by ARA ... and for ARA that Barry & Jaap would stay on and act in good faith - otherwise who's going to do the pinball bit?

Also, if as you think DP are a potentially valuable asset, without onerous liabilities, then supposedly being in advanced negotiations with VDL will likely complicate matters further.

#4830 38 days ago
Quoted from frolic:

Begins and ends with lack of refunds for anyone who wants out.

Boom.

...and also, should we define "broke" in this situation? When people say "DP is broke", sure, none of us know what's in their bank accounts...but do they have the financial ability to make games themselves? No. Do they have the financial ability to take TBL away and make it elsewhere? No. So.......yeah.

#4831 38 days ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

It's 2017, the train is off the tracks.

Agree with everything else you're saying, but your train derailment metaphor in a Big Lebowski thread will not stand. Goddamn planes and mountains, on the other hand ...

#4832 38 days ago
Quoted from fosaisu:

Agree with everything else you're saying, but your train derailment metaphor in a Big Lebowski thread will not stand. Goddamn planes and mountains, on the other hand ...

I love you.

#4833 38 days ago
Quoted from highdef:

Charging $12.5K for BoP3.0 without a working prototype to show is a strong indication of cash shortage.

I'd also say linking the agreement to complete TBL run to also making BoP3.0 looks very suspicious as though they need another income stream to pay for TBL.

#4834 38 days ago

I really want to see the machines come out, so I hope Dutch and ARA can agree on something. There are plenty of options to make more machines. The market is certainly larger than 300 machines, and any marketing material limiting to 300 games leaves a lotta ins lotta outs and what have yous. We don't see their licensing agreements, but the Dutch to Customer agreement is fairly vague.

For example, 300 games could be 300 as described, so they could make a few hundred "pro" version without the bowling lane at a sub $8,500 price and still honor the marketing claims. I bet a lot of people would jump in for that. There are way more than 300 people gawking at this thread.

#4835 38 days ago
Quoted from highdef:

Charging $12.5K for BoP3.0 without a working prototype to show is a strong indication of cash shortage.

also known as pyramid scheme!

-2
#4836 38 days ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

DP aren't business leaders. They're guys who made a cool game, had someone else build it...and now are at the mercy of those building it.

And what makes ARA any better of a leader of a pinball design company? That's my point... there are negatives to letting just anyone become your new majority owner.

Quoted from Rarehero:

Wrong. In this theoretical deal, ARA is going to build the rest of the Lebowski orders ...and if they can right this ship and make all pre-orderers whole, that gives new buyers confidence - they can sell MORE Lebowskis after that (given they want to renew the license) - also, BOP 3.0...they have the Proto, if this deal goes through, they'll be building those. And again, once this ship gets righted and DP/ARA have customer confidence - there CAN be a future. The entire future of DP hangs on this deal. ,

One pinball title does not make a pinball company with a future. ARA can build TBLs.. and then what? You still need the rest of the company to be a success... and leadership to get SUCCESSFUL designs to market. That is not a given. While DP have not proven themselves business managers - they have proven themselves good game designers/directors. Bad management can ruin that.

Quoted from Rarehero:

DP is done NOW. They can't ship shit, they can't sell future shit. No factory. No customer confidence. This deal gets them back on track. It's the only way.

This is yet another leap based on little. DP needs ARA because of how far in they are with them on this project... not because ARA is the only possible way to have a business.

Quoted from Rarehero:

We like DP's designs. We like their creative ideas. Do we like their leadership? F*CK NO! They NEEEED leadership. Then Barry & Jaap can do what they do best - design games.

Remember why Jack and other split from Stern?? Because they didn't like what management was forcing the games to be. There is no automatic save that says ARA equals DP building their dreams.

Quoted from Rarehero:

Where? There are no pinball angel investors willing to dip into this muck. Made sense with Stern - they had a factory, employees and a history. Made sense with JJP, they had a factory, employees and a history...just needed some oversight and a new gameplan (and money). DP is 2 dudes. That's it. At this point, partnering with ARA is the only option that gives them a shot at being a legit pinball company and not a massive failure.

Your logic fails in that it doesn't even explain how ARA would get involved with DP to start with... or any other backer in a business. Factories in startups are generally liabilities... not much in the terms of assets because they are usually built on borrowed money. The idea of contract manufacturing is not a 'bad word' - and lacking a factory is not a problem when it's something you can hire on the open market.

Quoted from Rarehero:

They're looking at Stern - making millions, doing it right. They see the situation they're in, and they see the possibility of where it can go if done right. Barry & Jaap have the creative talent. ARA has the manufacturing infrastructure. Clearly shit didn't work when they were each in their own bubbles. They need to join forces to function!

I think you have some seriously tinted glasses. The Stern making millions gave me a good chuckle.

#4837 38 days ago
Quoted from jayhawkai:

The simpler math is that DP is currently broke, but its value is in the right to produce 200 more TBLs, and that's why ARA wants equity.

Except why would they want to assume that liabiilty, for such little return? The margin on pins is small... it's better to be the contractor who demands payment up front, and has the assets as collateral... than the guy trying to front the money and sell the goods to make it up.

It only makes sense if ARA is trying to do an equity swap in exchange for monies owed and they see a future in pinball production. But that alone doesn't add up for me... There is far better business for ARA to chase without leaving their core competency.

#4838 38 days ago
Quoted from flynnibus:

I think you have some seriously tinted glasses. The Stern making millions gave me a good chuckle.

I think you have some seriously math adverse glasses. Let's do a little conservative math. I'm even gonna round down the numbers to take into account distrib margins, and I'm prob rounding down too much...but, just to prove a point:

One game, lets say Ghostbusters.
500 LE x $7000 = $3,500,000
1000 Prem x $6000 = $6,000,000
1000 Pro x $4500 = $4,500,000
Total $14,000,000

OK, lets assume they mark up the games 50%...that's $7,000,000 in the door

Stern says it costs $1,000,000 to develop a game...$6,000,000

...and I'm sure they've sold more Ghostbusters than in my example. PLUS, all the other titles they sell. Take out money for salaries.....Stern's still making millions.

#4839 38 days ago
Quoted from flynnibus:

And what makes ARA any better of a leader of a pinball design company? That's my point... there are negatives to letting just anyone become your new majority owner.

A pinball design company is useless without a factory. Period. DP ceases to exist, and we're all fucked without ARA.

Quoted from flynnibus:

One pinball title does not make a pinball company with a future. ARA can build TBLs.. and then what? You still need the rest of the company to be a success... and leadership to get SUCCESSFUL designs to market. That is not a given. While DP have not proven themselves business managers - they have proven themselves good game designers/directors. Bad management can ruin that.

DP has already ruined themselves with bad management. ARA is the last hope. They have more leverage than DP in this situation. Period. ARA doesn't need Dutch Pinball...they have other shit going on. Dutch Pinball needs ARA.

Quoted from flynnibus:

This is yet another leap based on little. DP needs ARA because of how far in they are with them on this project... not because ARA is the only possible way to have a business.

Leap based on little!? Have you no concept of what has happened!?!?! No, ARA *is* the only possible way to have a business (for Dutch Pinball). Without Lebowski being finished, DP has nothing. Period. The games and parts will not be freed. They'll have zero customer confidence in their efforts to make a 2nd game before the first is resolved.

Quoted from flynnibus:

Remember why Jack and other split from Stern?? Because they didn't like what management was forcing the games to be. There is no automatic save that says ARA equals DP building their dreams.

The story of the market in 2010 is irrelevant to the story of DP in 2017. Who gives a fuck about DP "building their dreams"...we're no longer in dreamland, we're in realityland. Reality = 300 customers want their fucking games. Reality = DP doesn't have a factory. ARA does.

Quoted from flynnibus:

Your logic fails in that it doesn't even explain how ARA would get involved with DP to start with...

DP came to them and said "Build this for $$$". ARA said yes.

#4840 38 days ago

Have gotten my deposit back from COINTAKER. Good luck everybody!
I hope all of you are getting the game!

#4841 38 days ago
Quoted from unigroove:

.3. Let's take a look at this from a different perspective: Why would ARA be interested in 51% of a broke company?.

Maybe because they have a ton invested in parts and development, and they aren't willing to just write all of that off. 51% allows them to call the shots....what to make, how to make it, and where they get shipped. They will try to turn this around and generate as much cash as they can and use up their stock of parts. If it works, they are the savior. If it doesn't, they can liquidate the company and get 51% of any assets that might exist. This is precisely why sugar-daddy investment firms demand control.....they are not doing it because they know more about the product. They do it because they assume the risk and can determine when it is time to cut losses and dump everything to get whatever they can back.

#4842 38 days ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

I think you have some seriously math adverse glasses. Let's do a little conservative math. I'm even gonna round down the numbers to take into account distrib margins, and I'm prob rounding down too much...but, just to prove a point:
One game, lets say Ghostbusters.
500 LE x $7000 = $3,500,000
1000 Prem x $6000 = $6,000,000
1000 Pro x $4500 = $4,500,000
Total $14,000,000
OK, lets assume they mark up the games 50%...that's $7,000,000 in the door
Stern says it costs $1,000,000 to develop a game...$6,000,000
...and I'm sure they've sold more Ghostbusters than in my example. PLUS, all the other titles they sell. Take out money for salaries.....Stern's still making millions.

I'm sure every business looks like easy money to you when you
- ignore all overhead of facilities, logistics, utilities, etc
- ignore all labor costs
- ignore all inventory costs
- ignore all taxes, insurances, royalties, etc
- ignore all debts/carry-forwards

... and generally just focus on Gross Margin and think that is even comparable to actual net profit. That was pretty cute.

#4843 38 days ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

A pinball design company is useless without a factory. Period. DP ceases to exist, and we're all fucked without ARA.

Yet you all ordered TBL without DP having a factory...

Quoted from Rarehero:

DP has already ruined themselves with bad management. ARA is the last hope

You didn't even know who ARA was, or what they could do before DP introduced them... nor could you name any of their peers. So I'd caution against the 'ara is the only way this works'. ARA wants money, not games. Money can come from alot of places.

Quoted from Rarehero:

Without Lebowski being finished, DP has nothing. Period. The games and parts will not be freed. They'll have zero customer confidence in their efforts to make a 2nd game before the first is resolved.

If they had games ready to buy.. and people wanted them.. they'd buy them. The pinball community has no real 'black list' and no matter how hard these buyers get fisted... if the next game is ready and is what they want, they'll buy.

Quoted from Rarehero:

The story of the market in 2010 is irrelevant to the story of DP in 2017. Who gives a fuck about DP "building their dreams"...we're no longer in dreamland, we're in realityland. Reality = 300 customers want their fucking games. Reality = DP doesn't have a factory. ARA does.

DP came to them and said "Build this for $$$". ARA said yes.

Yes... which is why your theory of who will get involved or not is bunkus. ARA didn't care DP didn't have a factory, or didn't have a history.. They looked at the business, not pinside history.

You need to look more than 6" ahead. ARA has the hostages... ARA is not the only manufacturer. ARA is not the only one who has money. TBL is intrinsically tied to ARA... but that doesn't mean DP's future needs to be ARA nor that the *only* option is to give DP to ARA.

Hell you didn't even think of that option until DP shared it... now you have the insight to know that's the ONLY path available? Step back and listen to yourself.

#4844 38 days ago

Less is often more. In Pinside posts as well as in life.

Not looking to read books on this thread. Just sayin'.

#4845 38 days ago

It's simple. 100% of nothing is nothing.

And 51% with ARA is a miracle bail out.

But they won't take it and assume all the liabilities, would be stupid on their part.

#4846 38 days ago

The first rule in investing always is "let your winners run, see Apple stock, and be quick to cut your losses".

Can't see ARA gobbling up this disaster but then again its a total cluster F at this point so anything can happen.

10
#4847 38 days ago
Quoted from flynnibus:

Yet you all ordered TBL without DP having a factory...

You're the King of All Irrelevance. What we did with what we knew in 2014 vs. what's happening now is IRRELEVANT.

Quoted from flynnibus:

You didn't even know who ARA was, or what they could do before DP introduced them... nor could you name any of their peers. So I'd caution against the 'ara is the only way this works'. ARA wants money, not games. Money can come from alot of places.

Again, what we did in 2014 is irrelevant. In 2017, ARA has 40 games and 100's of games worth of parts. DP has expended their cash on these parts. Humor us. Where's the fucking money, Lebowski!?!?!?

Quoted from flynnibus:

f they had games ready to buy.. and people wanted them.. they'd buy them. The pinball community has no real 'black list' and no matter how hard these buyers get fisted... if the next game is ready and is what they want, they'll buy.

Again, this is 2017. We're post Predator, post Jpop's ponzi scheme, and in the midst of Lebowski-gate.

Quoted from flynnibus:

Yes... which is why your theory of who will get involved or not is bunkus. ARA didn't care DP didn't have a factory, or didn't have a history.. They looked at the business, not pinside history.

Then school me, FFS!!!! Where does the money come from if DP doesn't continue with ARA!?!?!?

Quoted from flynnibus:

Step back and listen to yourself.

STFU and listen to other people.

Quoted from flynnibus:

... and generally just focus on Gross Margin and think that is even comparable to actual net profit. That was pretty cute.

Oh spare me the condescension...and Holy F you are THICK. I posted ONE game's low estimates...it was in many millions...couple that with ALL THEIR TITLES, I said you could remove ALL OTHER COSTS involved in business...and they'd still be making millions.

#4848 38 days ago

The lesson learned is the only thing that matters in Rarehero's world is the last 24hrs... No wonder you flip out when a week or so goes by and not to your liking.

#4849 38 days ago

If its really true what an unbelievable lifeline for DP.

They need to take this deal before ARA changes it mind.

-1
#4850 38 days ago
Quoted from flynnibus:

The lesson learned is the only thing that matters in Rarehero's world is the last 24hrs... No wonder you flip out when a week or so goes by and not to your liking.

I'm flipping out at your inane assessment of things, not so much the situation itself. You've managed to become worse than DP in a DP thread. Congrats.

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