(Topic ID: 115360)

The Big Lebowski Preorder Club (Members Only)


By Nilroc

4 years ago



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-9
#3451 2 years ago
Quoted from dmbjunky:

Not every new pin company is gonna be like Spooky. It's common sense.

Everyone is using Spooky as this model of perfection but after the reviews of Rob Zombie and the number of people who backed out with a refundable deposit, I'm sure put Spooky in a tough financial situation. Fortunately, they are lean and live in a relatively inexpensive part of the country. At the end of the day though, I think Spooky is the modern day Game Plan if they don't start stepping it up on their games.

#3452 2 years ago

I'm not attacking DP but if you went into TBL thinking parts would be readily available at while they were still trying to build machines you weren't thinking straight.

#3453 2 years ago
Quoted from eggbert52:

Everyone is using Spooky as this model of perfection but after the reviews of Rob Zombie and the number of people who backed out with a refundable deposit, I'm sure put Spooky in a tough financial situation. Fortunately, they are lean and live in a relatively inexpensive part of the country. At the end of the day though, I think Spooky is the modern day Game Plan if they don't start stepping it up on their games.

From what I understand they had a waiting list large enough to handle anyone backing out. You may have heard something different than me though.

Spooky has shipped one game, are finishing up game two, starting game three and have announced game four. Code is publicly discussed on the forum, any physical parts issues seems to be dealt with quickly. I don't think Game Plan had that well of a reputation but I wasn't around pinball then.

#3454 2 years ago

In my pinball fantasy league I have DP and spooky paired up. DP as design house and spooky doing business side.

#3455 2 years ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

We all know that if Stern were to go out of business, it would mean there's not a single manufacturer of pinball machines left. They are as close to a blue chip as we have.

If Stern were to suddenly go titsup, sales and talent would quickly migrate to JJP, Heighway, Spooky, etc. Stern is not the only manufacturer we have now.

#3456 2 years ago
Quoted from metallik:

If Stern were to suddenly go titsup

Please don't make me visualize Gary Stern's tits.

#3457 2 years ago
Quoted from eggbert52:

Everyone is using Spooky as this model of perfection but after the reviews of Rob Zombie and the number of people who backed out with a refundable deposit, I'm sure put Spooky in a tough financial situation.

You're sure, eh? Do you know exactly how many unsold RZSIs there are in inventory? Do you know if that number is even greater than zero? I see no evidence whatsoever of financial issues at Spooky.

Don't equate people having second thoughts on the game (it is NOT a family machine in any sense) with failure to sell through. Just took a little longer for some games to find homes

-13
#3458 2 years ago
Quoted from metallik:

You're sure, eh? Do you know exactly how many unsold RZSIs there are in inventory? Do you know if that number is even greater than zero? I see no evidence whatsoever of financial issues at Spooky.
Don't equate people having second thoughts on the game (it is NOT a family machine in any sense) with failure to sell through. Just took a little longer for some games to find homes

I know that you own a total of one game and that I bought both of Spooky's games. That alone says I probably know more about the company than you do.

#3459 2 years ago

Here we go... let him have it

#3460 2 years ago
Quoted from eggbert52:

I know that you own a total of one game and that I bought both of Spooky's games. That alone says I probably know more about the company than you do.

Apparently it doesn't because you think Spooky lost money or was put into a "tough financial situation" due to RZ cancellations when they are still sold out with a waiting list.

#3461 2 years ago
Quoted from snakesnsparklers:

Apparently it doesn't because you think Spooky lost money due to RZ cancellations when they are still sold out with a waiting list.

Point to where I said they "lost money."

#3462 2 years ago
Quoted from eggbert52:

I know that you own a total of one game

You know that I've listed a total of one game on Pinside. You don't know squat about what I actually own. Thank you for proving my point regarding ASSumptions.

#3463 2 years ago
Quoted from eggbert52:

Point to where I said they "lost money."

Back on topic, even if Spooky is as you say doesn't that just confirm what I was saying? Anybody putting money in a new start up pin company shouldn't be surprised at precarious financial delays or unavailable parts. That should be an inherent and understood risk.

#3464 2 years ago
Quoted from eggbert52:

Point to where I said they "lost money."

Your words were that Spooky was put into a "tough financial situation" which is just as wrong. The fact that you are trying to justify your misinformation by stating that you bought both Spooky games is just silly. Sorry that you personally didn't like RZ, but get over it man.

#3465 2 years ago

As someone who has started and operated a bunch of companies, I see this model as having a couple inherent challenges up front. (This isn't in any way to disparage DP, I'm a huge fan and remain a preorder for as long as it takes.)

First, the market size is never high enough (even Stern) to attract investors who normally are interested in a future exit (such as venture capital). The total revenue/addressable market is not high enough to model out the multiples needed from this group. (It's not that there isn't huge profits to be made, just VC types want businesses that show a path to $100M's in revenue.)

Second, it doesn't attract lenders/banking because, as is the case with many manufacturing business plans, the asset to liability ratio isn't good enough for this banking climate. This wasn't true 30 years ago, but unfortunately has been since the 90's.

Therefore, there are only two ways to build a sustainable, medium-sized pinball business organically:

1) Have a benefactor who is willing to wait years to take a percentage of profits. This would come from someone with strategic interest or hobby interest with a large pocketbook. I know people who fit this concept but it's exceedingly rare. This can include a large media company or corporate interest who is willing to lose money for some intangible benefit (i.e. a movie studio).

2) Pre-orders, which in theory funds the build. This business model is fairly recent in history, so there isn't a lot of data about how to de-risk it. Kickstarter popularized it but there are only a few real scaled up success stories (possibly Tesla).

I think option 1) is ideal because you can build product you product in stealth and ship immediately upon release, which for this community, is less engaging but probably best. Option 2) is fine but the capital required to build the business is far too high for what we've seen these pinball companies charging. I've modeled it, and from what I can see, the price point would need to go up by 50-100% to build a boutique business, or the volume would need to be at Stern level to get to scale. Crossing the chasm is super difficult.

I can't blame companies for choosing option 2 because it's super hard to raise capital. My best guess is that if chose either 1) or 2), you still need about 3-4 years to get to breakeven.

#3466 2 years ago
Quoted from jsa:

Therefore, there are only two ways to build a sustainable, medium-sized pinball business organically:

What about a third option... growing the business slowly from a small business, as Spooky appears to be doing?

Maybe there's a way to simply start the manufacturing business first... I've thought a little about that option. The biggest bottleneck for the boutiques is obviously manufacture. Seems like a business opportunity for someone.

#3467 2 years ago
Quoted from chadderack:

What about a third option... growing the business slowly from a small business, as Spooky appears to be doing?
Maybe there's a way to simply start the manufacturing business first... I've thought a little about that option. The biggest bottleneck for the boutiques is obviously manufacture. Seems like a business opportunity for someone.

Growing a business slowly, or organically (the terminology I hear the most often), implies growing your business from the margins, or profits, of your existing sales. It requires that you sell a product first. Spooky has done that, and while it's tough and razor thin at the margin level, they can choose to only build product with the cash flow they already have. It's actually the way most longer-term successful business grow. However, it requires a FIRST product. Getting your first product manufactured an out the door is the challenge which those two options demonstrate.

People use the term "bootstrapping" as an example of how to build a business like this. Bootstrapping is another word for self-funding. It implies that you, personally, absorb the cost of the initial product development, manufacture and distribution. You can do this if you have the cash in the bank. This really fits into option 1), as it requires that you are willing to float the company until you hit breakeven.

All of these are viable options! My only point here is to illustrate that we need (as a community) to do two things: 1) Have the patience to expect very long manufacture cycles and breakeven models. 2) Be willing to pay more for a machine to fund that gap for the pre-order businesses.

#3468 2 years ago
Quoted from jsa:

Growing a business slowly, or organically (the terminology I hear the most often), implies growing your business from the margins, or profits, of your existing sales. It requires that you sell a product first. Spooky has done that, and while it's tough and razor thin at the margin level, they can choose to only build product with the cash flow they already have. It's actually the way most longer-term successful business grow. However, it requires a FIRST product. Getting your first product manufactured an out the door is the challenge which those two options demonstrate.
People use the term "bootstrapping" as an example of how to build a business like this. Bootstrapping is another word for self-funding. It implies that you, personally, absorb the cost of the initial product development, manufacture and distribution. You can do this if you have the cash in the bank. This really fits into option 1), as it requires that you are willing to float the company until you hit breakeven.
All of these are viable options!

This is the point I was going for; it appears Charlie built a lot of his business from his own funds. There are dozens of people on Pinside alone who could do the same, I'm assuming... e.g. the wealthy benefactor being the business entrepreneur himself (herself).

Still wondering about the American Pinball model... start a manufacturing business first and forget about a first product. There are more ideas than manufacturing options is my guess. You can either contract with boutiques or bring a creative person with an in-hand concept in (like Scott G. with WOOLY) and produce a game that's ready to be produced.

#3469 2 years ago
Quoted from chadderack:

This is the point I was going for; it appears Charlie built a lot of his business from his own funds. There are dozens of people on Pinside alone who could do the same, I'm assuming... e.g. the wealthy benefactor being the business entrepreneur himself (herself).
Still wondering about the American Pinball model... start a manufacturing business first and forget about a first product. There are more ideas than manufacturing options is my guess. You can either contract with boutiques or bring a creative person with an in-hand concept in (like Scott G. with WOOLY) and produce a game that's ready to be produced.

I can't really comment on American Pinball, but I do think it's possible to start a manufacturing business first. However, generally, you should have someone in your company that has done this precise type of manufacturing, at scale, before. Product development is an entirely different beast; Optimizing a manufacturing business is a specialty, and you can't read about it in books and expect to succeed. I would hope that anyone who wants to try this in pinball hires people either who have done it at scale (at Williams or Stern) or from a similar business.

#3470 2 years ago
Quoted from jsa:

I can't really comment on American Pinball, but I do think it's possible to start a manufacturing business first. However, generally, you should have someone in your company that has done this precise type of manufacturing, at scale, before. Product development is an entirely different beast; Optimizing a manufacturing business is a specialty, and you can't read about it in books and expect to succeed. I would hope that anyone who wants to try this in pinball hires people either who have done it at scale (at Williams or Stern) or from a similar business.

Agreed.

#3471 2 years ago

Homepin is building their pin and game manufacturing business first; pinballs later.

#3472 2 years ago

I believe a while back there was some discussion, or maybe is was speculation, that DP has at least one "angel" as a major backer. A lot of stuff that cost money happen before any preorders were taken.

#3473 2 years ago

Wow what a lot of great information. I don't know what model Spooky is using but I love what and how they do it. I'm staying in on my order and hoping DP gets this worked out and succeeds.

#3474 2 years ago
Quoted from BrewinBombers:

Homepin is building their pin and game manufacturing business first; pinballs later.

Speaking of Homepin, any speculation when they'll build a machine? I live in Hong Kong, not too far from Homepin (Shenzhen, China, right?)

#3475 2 years ago
Quoted from Toucanf16:

Speaking of Homepin, any speculation when they'll build a machine? I live in Hong Kong, not too far from Homepin (Shenzhen, China, right?)

Go visit them and tell us what you see.

#3476 2 years ago
Quoted from dmbjunky:

Didn't you expect this? It's a new private company making it's first pin. There was always a high chance this was the only pin they would ever make IF they were able to make it.
You're not buying a Stern which has a strong past and future.

I appreciate your wisdom and insight, but there's risk in everything no matter whether you're established or not. And yes, I expected them to have parts readily available, even during production. How is that wrong?

I bought this machine because it WASN'T a Stern and still stand behind my decision.

#3477 2 years ago

Here's the way I see this whole fiasco to date.

Right now I don't know whom to blame... Clearly the machine took WAY LONGER to begin manufacturing than the original contract had put in place. What I don't know is which "business" is at fault or who specifically screwed the proverbial pooch. My gut says it was probably both. On one hand; I can easily see ARA refusing to commit resources to get the design done in time. I can also easily see ARA wasting time designing every damn board from scratch for the machine instead of using "off the shelf" components.

I can also see DP pushing "new things" and biting off more than they can chew.

That said; I really think what we are seeing is a perfect storm.
1) The machine took too long and is now "outside of the original contract"
2) The Euro has fallen w/ respect to the USD due to Brexit. This has put materials purchased from the non-Euro market at a much worse situation. Instead of the Euro being 1.5x a USD... its more like 1.05 now... so they aren't getting "Free money" to purchase things using the power of the Euro.

Because of this - and the fact they are no longer under contract (which expired); ARA is demanding that DP cover the Brexit exchange rate deficit. I *may* be wrong... but I see why DP is in a "nope - don't care" mode... ARA is really bending them over the exam table... and we all know it. ARA may have the right to do what they are doing... but it sure does seem like legal extortion to me.

I hope for the sake of our community that ARA and DP can work together to resolve the matter - but it doesn't sound like it. Sadly; it seems that DP will have to cancel these orders and either end their vision to be a pinball manufacturer or start over. I just can't see them willing to re-start the machine design again with a new contract manufacturer... but it really depends on who REALLY owns what parts of the machine. If DP owns the art, mechanicals, and software... then maybe just maybe another contract manufacturer can step in and bail them out.

As to Cointaker's assertion that another existing manufacturer can and will step up... I just don't see it. Doubt Spooky wants to re-design the software stack to work with Ben Heck's control system. Stern has enough to do. JJP is stupid enough to try and save the project at the expense of way inflated prices to the existing customers. CGC... maybe... but right now they are a one-and-done company IMHO.

Regardless; I'm glad I didn't like the movie enough to consider this a theme I'd want. I have a friend in DFW who did pre-order... but sadly; I think he is SOL and should get a refund.

That's my more than two cents on the subject.

#3478 2 years ago
Quoted from Zitt:

2) The Euro has fallen w/ respect to the USD due to Brexit. This has put materials purchased from the non-Euro market at a much worse situation. Instead of the Euro being 1.5x a USD... its more like 1.05 now... so they aren't getting "Free money" to purchase things using the power of the Euro.

The change in exchange rate affects DP in two opposite ways:
- it does increase the BOM as most of the parts are probably billed in $
- it also increases the revenue from US customers as you pay in $

The net result depends if most US pre-buyers have already paid in full, or if there is still a fair fraction to collect.
$8,500 meant 6,115 euros in 2014 (highest was € = 1.39$; see graph below)
$8,500 means 8,018 euros now (€ = 1.06$)
So... 1900 euros (close to $2k) extra revenue for DP, assuming paiement is made in full now.

Exchange (resized).png

#3479 2 years ago
Quoted from Toucanf16:

Speaking of Homepin, any speculation when they'll build a machine? I live in Hong Kong, not too far from Homepin (Shenzhen, China, right?)

Mike said that his first machine Thunderbirds will be released this year. He has given no date yet, but I'm really looking forward to the reveal.

Quoted from jsa:

I can't really comment on American Pinball, but I do think it's possible to start a manufacturing business first. However, generally, you should have someone in your company that has done this precise type of manufacturing, at scale, before. Product development is an entirely different beast; Optimizing a manufacturing business is a specialty, and you can't read about it in books and expect to succeed. I would hope that anyone who wants to try this in pinball hires people either who have done it at scale (at Williams or Stern) or from a similar business.

Homepin is a really good example of starting a manufacturing business first then building up to pinball manuafacture. He started out manufacturing cocktail arcade cabs and building boards and such. He has been building the infrastructure required in order to build up the pinball machine manufacturing arm of his business. It has been a long road. Unlike Stern, JJP et. al. Mike has had to manufacture almost every part that will go into a Homepin machine. It has been a huge challenge for him, but I get the impression that he is on the verge, and things are coming together nicely. You should check out the Homepin thread, it is a great read.

In the long run, this will give Homepin an advantage over the likes of DP. He will not need to outsource the manufacture of individual components or be at the whim of multiple parts suppliers. Mostly everything will be in house. He has direct oversight for quality control, and the factory is in China, which means he can keep his costs down. The machines will therefore be affordable and of a high quality. Something that he just couldn't do in Australia or the US.

#3480 2 years ago
Quoted from jlm33:

The change in exchange rate affects DP in two opposite ways:
- it does increase the BOM as most of the parts are probably billed in $
- it also increases the revenue from US customers as you pay in $
The net result depends if most US pre-buyers have already paid in full, or if there is still a fair fraction to collect.
$8,500 meant 6,115 euros in 2014 (highest was € = 1.39$; see graph below)
$8,500 means 8,018 euros now (€ = 1.06$)
So... 1900 euros (close to $2k) extra revenue for DP, assuming paiement is made in full now.

They can hedge currency just like Mr Knowitall (Phil) said they will do. Throw another penthouse party or two
Maybe one at TPF....

#3481 2 years ago
Quoted from BrewinBombers:

Homepin is building their pin and game manufacturing business first; pinballs later.

Multimorphic is working on that too. Lexy Lightspeed - Escape From Earth is a lot of fun and the modular design has huge potential.

#3482 2 years ago

Perhaps Homepin will get the Chinese interested in pinball. There are a few ex-pat spots in Shenzhen so hopefully there's opportunity to attract new pinheads in that region. More accessibility, variety, and competition is better for all of us in the long run.

18
#3483 2 years ago

I got this email from Jaap this morning:

---------------------
ARA is not telling the truth. They don’t charge us the agreed price.
In May 2015 we agreed price A. In June 2016 ARA wanted much more money per TBL: A plus €1.000+. DP agreed with this price but only under the condition that ARA would deliver 300 TBLs plus 50 units of our 2nd title before the 31st of December 2016. A few months later (October 2016) we found out that ARA didn’t order parts for the production of the 50 units of our 2nd title. We confronted ARA with this and told them the deal of June is of because they don’t deliver in accordance with the clear condition (the delivery of 300 TBLs plus 50 units of our 2nd title before the 31st of December 2016).
ARA insists on charging us A plus €1.000+. They didn’t produce a single unit of our 2nd title.
For us this is unacceptable as you probably will understand. The agreed price is price A and not A plus €1.000+.
Please feel free to share this with the pinball community.
---------------------

So, they're sticking to their "ARA blew it" story. I just hope they had this conditional contract in writing.If we are to believe this...I think an interesting tidbit is the mention of the 2nd title. If they indeed finished designing a 2nd title and wanted it built by Dec. 2016, that means DP wasn't planning on being one-and-done, and that maybe gives me a bit more confidence that they'll work this all out...as they've got another game in the can that should have been ready to go.

#3484 2 years ago

Well let's just hope DP can work it out.
I'm staying in for the long haul.
Wonder if Jaap will announce the second pin at TPF?

#3485 2 years ago
Quoted from metallik:

If Stern were to suddenly go titsup, sales and talent would quickly migrate to JJP, Heighway, Spooky, etc. Stern is not the only manufacturer we have now.

What I mean is that they are last buffer. Stern wouldn't go out of business until everybody else had. I really believe they are the only manufacturer who could withstand another recession (of the economy and the industry).

#3486 2 years ago

If what Jaap tells is true, I wondern if ARA is really solely resposible for the delays or the inability to build the 300 Lebowski's till the end of 2016.
As if not (like delays due to design errors and re-engineering parts), that deal might be hard to hold on for 100%, despite ARA beeing the one missing the deadline.

#3487 2 years ago

"If what Jaap tells is true"

HAHAHAHAHA.

DP is now telling the truth about things?

#3488 2 years ago

The real question is, how many TBL's are boxed up and ready.

#3489 2 years ago
Quoted from titanpenguin:

The real question is, how many TBL's are boxed up and ready.

According to ARA, 40.

#3490 2 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

According to ARA, 40.

So ARA missed the mark by 200 games and change, plus the 50 of title 2?

#3491 2 years ago
Quoted from titanpenguin:

So ARA missed the mark by 200 games and change, plus the 50 of title 2?

There are two sides to every story. Here's the most recent ARA letter. They claim Dutch didn't pay for the shipped containers & ~40 are ready to ship as soon as they're paid.

Who's lying? Who knows. Either they'll work it out with each other or they'll work it out in the courts.

ara.jpg

#3492 2 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

There are two sides to every story. Here's the most recent ARA letter. They claim Dutch didn't pay for the shipped containers & ~40 are ready to ship as soon as they're paid.
Who's lying? Who knows. Either they'll work it out with each other or they'll work it out in the courts.

One side is slandering the other publicly. Which one is it? At this point I am leaning to thinking Dutch is slandering ARA but would not be surprised if both are to some degree.

Money always seems to be a problem for new pinball companies. Somehow Spooky did not seem to have this amount of drama.

#3493 2 years ago

Cue another 10 pages of speculation ...and GO!

#3494 2 years ago

DP's best kept secret on Pinside: Their second title that should've had 50 units built two months ago.

That totally explains the impasse. Thank you Dutch Pinball, this makes perfect sense.

15
#3495 2 years ago

I would like to send in $8,000 to pre-order title #2.

#3496 2 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

I got this email from Jaap this morning:
---------------------
ARA is not telling the truth. They don’t charge us the agreed price.
In May 2015 we agreed price A. In June 2016 ARA wanted much more money per TBL: A plus €1.000+. DP agreed with this price but only under the condition that ARA would deliver 300 TBLs plus 50 units of our 2nd title before the 31st of December 2016. A few months later (October 2016) we found out that ARA didn’t order parts for the production of the 50 units of our 2nd title. We confronted ARA with this and told them the deal of June is of because they don’t deliver in accordance with the clear condition (the delivery of 300 TBLs plus 50 units of our 2nd title before the 31st of December 2016).
ARA insists on charging us A plus €1.000+. They didn’t produce a single unit of our 2nd title.
For us this is unacceptable as you probably will understand. The agreed price is price A and not A plus €1.000+.
Please feel free to share this with the pinball community.
---------------------
So, they're sticking to their "ARA blew it" story. I just hope they had this conditional contract in writing.If we are to believe this...I think an interesting tidbit is the mention of the 2nd title. If they indeed finished designing a 2nd title and wanted it built by Dec. 2016, that means DP wasn't planning on being one-and-done, and that maybe gives me a bit more confidence that they'll work this all out...as they've got another game in the can that should have been ready to go.

Rare, how much of that do you suspect is the truth? The 2nd title in 2016 never would have seemed realistic even if looking at it from January 2016.

#3497 2 years ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

Rare, how much of that do you suspect is the truth? The 2nd title in 2016 never would have seemed realistic even if looking at it from January 2016.

January 2016 was already 9 months late. So, I could see in June 2016 definitely having a second title ready to launch given TBL has been done as a mechanical game that we thought they were going to be early on their Q2 2015 date originally! Now, if you mean.. if ARA hadn't shipped any games in June so expecting in 6 months to make 350 games.. I can see that more but all depends on how honest ARA was being .. maybe they were promising games rolling off line at breakneck speeds and the delays all came in '2 more week' promises to DP.

I'm willing to give DP benefit of doubt here. I know they lied about board issues, but also can relate to them not wanting to be overly open on how the sausage was getting made.. however the communications breakdown between the parties has made a white lie into a PR nightmare... Coupled with the delays, the Phil meltdown, etc.. trust is low, I understand that perspective as well.

#3498 2 years ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

Rare, how much of that do you suspect is the truth? The 2nd title in 2016 never would have seemed realistic even if looking at it from January 2016.

I don't believe anyone. All I can do is look at the information I have....and I'll either get my game or I won't get my game.

17
#3499 2 years ago

DP's second title is Magic Guy.

#3500 2 years ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

I would like to send in $8,000 to pre-order title #2.

I'm hoping I can send at least 15k for a LE.

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