Maybe the ARA paperwork shows inventory of 250 bowling alleys. It only when those boxes are opened and inspected that it is learned they actually contains 250 rugs, marinating in urine. TBL is irrelevant without the bowling alley. It is the unique toy and a strong reason for buying the game. Functionality is limited and it seems a little corny, but who doesn't want to bowl? Without Walter saying ... F it Dude, let’s go bowling - what do you have?

That said, I could see a pro version selling. With a smaller boardset and without the bowling alley mech, if it was priced at least $2k less. A more reliable game that retains most of the charm (but lacks the one toy, central to the movie plot you really want). More options are good because everybody can find something tailored for them. Also make more TBL with the smaller boards and with the bowling alley called TBL LE. As long as we are fantasizing, hit this home run out of the park.

There might be a way to design a cheaper mech, from a far distance it looks like an STTNG cannon with a low power coil

Good luck with that. a 10k pro model? Won't sell. If this were in regular production for 10k today it would probably be received rather cooly. Some would buy it for the theme, but many would probably look at it and pass as there are other games for less that offer too many features. It pulls 12.5k right now because it is rare, that is it. Same with Alien.

Does anyone actually see a mathematical way forward to fulfill the EA buyers who have been screwed? What is the ACTUAL cost to produce a game now and who is going to produce them? Even if the parts are "paid for", the labor to build, the tools to build, the space to build, palettes and boxes, none of that exists or is accounted for! And what about the shipping costs? just a direct pass-through to the buyers I suppose?

Surely they do not have all parts on hand. And what about the cut that CT or nitro take? So lets play the game - if it costs $5000 to build one of these new machines with parts on hand for all the extra costs, they sell for $12,500, CT takes what, $2000? So they need to sell how many to start to build a war chest to actually pay out of pocket to build the EA games and send them out for free? Is that realistic at all???

No, without a serious cash infusion, this game is dead.

A new Stern LE is 9k and JJP CE is 12.5K.. I would take TBL over either (even if it wasn't rare) and I have owned many Stern LE & JJP games, I also owned a TBL so I have a lot of time on the game. TBL is stunning to look at, fun to play (even with the old code), sound package is awesome & the theme integration is probably the best of all time IMHO.

Disclaimer: I am a big TBL movie fan!

I am thinking TBL pro's (w/o bowling alley) might sell 100 at $10k. More TBL LE's (with bowling alley) might sell 100 at $12.5k. Total demand equals 200 if they split the options. The pro removes the bowling mech and disables the feature in software menu. Otherwise the game, parts, wiring harness and software would be the same across models. You might be thinking great, Ill buy pro TBL and a bowling alley to create a LE. Correct, it could work that way, only the cost to buy a lower pf will be $2k and supplies are limited, so after buying one to install in your pro, you'd come out even with those buying LE.

My recommendation in the early days when the bowling mech was in the design phase was to do away with it and have the bowling feature in the display using software that undoubtedly already exists, allowing the player to choose angle, speed and spin with the flipper buttons by means of moving pointers on scales requiring well timed flipper presses to get the desired ball motion. It would have been quite easy and in my opinion been more realistic than the tiny 'alley' the mech allows for... and things like getting a spare from a split would have been actually possible...

If it was done well enough you could even select to just use the game as a bowling simulator and play just in bowling mode!

Hard to see $1000 wholesale price in that unit without serious markup. But then again... The replacement pins are $190 so... yeah? https://themodcouplepinball.com/collections/the-big-lebowski-custom-mod-collection/products/the-big-lebowski-replacement-redesigned-bowling-pins-individual

Personally, its a huge thing for me. Pinball machines need toys. This is one of the coolest. I'd hold out for a TBL with the mech if there was a version without it.

I respectfully have to disagree. The music, the call outs, the play, the integration. The game is why I would pay 12,500 today with all else out there including jp2 or willy Wonka. This, as much as I cant stand the DP guys and what they have done, is one of the all time best examples of pinball I have played in a very long time and maybe even ever.

I have tried to do and guess the math and the answer that keeps coming up is NO

The solution is very easy. He finds an investor or two that provide the money. It is really that simple. To say no one would ever work with him is silly. No one on pinside probably would, but there is a great big world out there and lots of people with more money than you could imagine. A 1-2 million dollar start up is relatively cheap.

I do agree with you whole heartedly, and deep down I really hope you are right however how many millionaires out there want to get into bed with liars and do no due diligence at all? This is why I keep coming up with NO, the liar quotient

Look a jpop- still has a job, still people that want to work with him despite the whole fiasco and peeing money/games all over town. Crazy but true.

With the EA games though — they’d be making them for free if it happened — cause they are all paid for right? So you start out way way in the hole.. I guess you could get back to break even if you were able to renew the license and sell enough games after getting EAs taken care of. If a company like deeproot comes along and wants to take up that kind of liability from the get go.. it could happen.

Just spit balling here. but like I said, this really wouldnt be that hard, or that costly to someone with money. 40 games at 8500 is 340k. Dear investor, I will need the 1 mill to get going with all these parts to set up factory and restart. The game is already complete, just need to start making them again so the timeline will be fairly short. Also I will need 340k to produce the games purchased previously. Once back in production, you will take 75% of the margin from all future sales after normal operation costs until paid off for the original 340k, afterwords it will return to the normal split of 60/40 or w.e. as well as 49% control of the company. Cost of the games will be 12500, BOM is 6000k after costs of factory etc 8k per game. 4.5k remaining per unit sold.

done and done.

Sounds like a plan. When are you writing the check?

--- Oh and maybe check on the 40 games part... I think its more like 140 EA that are owed.

Unfortunately, I’m not one of the many multimillion+Aires in the world, so I’m out.

FYI - millionaires are millionaires for a reason - not making investments like this!

$1.2M just to pay back EAs - if they can make at $8500!

There are DEFINATELY folks on this forum with all of the factors to be the "angel investor"

Cash on hand
love of pinball
love of the big Lebowski theme
understanding of business metrics and business viability

Why is no one jumping in?? Because there is no financial model that suggests its viable. It needs to be like the DeepRoot Jpop thing....the EA's are an anchor now to this project ever getting back off the ground. I mean that with no disrespect and I fully sympathize with the loss of $8500 to crooks who have now sold the same game twice...HOWEVER, its true, the EA's are a liability to any investor that wants to get in on this. Unless someone is willing to literally give away money to the EA's to get them to commit to not suing like Deep Root did, this is stuck in neutral...

Missing from your math is how many games you need to sell to break even... plus the initial seed money. And they need more than 40 games built to make the EAs whole... 40 is just the next batch of games that didn't leave ARA initially.

In your numbers (to keep it simple).. 4.5k gross per game. They need to give away roughly 100 games to make the EAs whole right? (I forget how many prepaid EAs there are.. so use a round number)

100 games x 8k cost per game = 800k needed to make the EA games.
When selling and making 4.5k gross per title.. at 75% split... 3375 investor cut per game... leaving DP only 1125 per game sold to fund operations and the games to be built.

Or put another way... DP needs to sell 7 games to pay off ONE EA owed game.. and still is just net zero for DP. At 7: 1, they have to sell over 700 games to fund the EA builds... if you are even at spooky speed.. 10 games a week, that is a year and a half of building... plus the extra 10 weeks to build EA games.

Even after your initial seed money is paid off, you still only clear 2700 a game in your model.. meaning it still takes 3.5 games sold to pay off a EA game.

Now consider... how much capital you really need to build that many games. DP can't self fund the builds when it has to pay off the investor AND build EA games and doesn't have their own capital. So something has to give... They can't source parts in small batches.. they need big batches of like 100 or more.. That means capital investments of 850k or more are needed up front to build the next batch of 100 games. Someone has to front 850k, for upwards of several months.. and keep doing that. Because there is no money left to fund the next batch of games if you are paying off the investor and setting profits aside for EA games owed.

With your 75% split of 4500.. they need to sell 296 games for the investor to just break even on the initial 1 million seed money. But it will take nearly 2.55 million in capital to actually build that many games. And DP can't self fund the missing 1.5M dollars needed with just the 25% they are getting per game.

So you can see... 1 million may get them making some games.. but its not enough to actually pay off the investor, nor the EAs (or any other debts still owed to ARA and others). So you have to find the number of games that need to be sold, how quickly you can build them (to control your costs) and then... figure out if selling that many games at that price point is even market viable...

Here we are talking about selling over 700 games just to break even...

Even on this napkin math you can see how it's a hard sell to think it can work for the EAs as a whole.

Some rich person might just do it to screw over Kaneda and make his flip attempt backfire.

DP just paid for them to ship them out!!

I already factored in the money to make the EA games right off the start. There would be no delay, they would be the first games made. I said 1 million plus the 8500 times however many EA’s there are. Actually it would be more like 6500 since that is DP’s cost.

The investor would get 75 percent of the profit from the games after that until the initial EA payment was cleared. I also factored in building costs and factory costs. So the 1750 is what DP would put in there pocket after new parts/factory and investor was paid.

Either way I said I was spitballing. The point of my original post is there are plenty of millionaires with more money than sense and nearly 99% have never been on pinside or could give two shits about this forum. If someone wants to invest because they wanna be a part of a cool company and feel good about that or love the movie or whatever, it can absolutely happen.

It’s a long term investment. If DP was back on track, why would TBL be the only game developed. It would just be the first. Meanwhile they own 49% of the company there after.

All we have to do is look at JJP, before wonka, they have basically never been in the black. The investors just keep giving. It’s a long game. Not a quick turn around

Kinda looking like the titanic when you break down the numbers

Ever hear of the Coolest Cooler? 2nd Biggest Kickstarter ever: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ryangrepper/coolest-cooler-21st-century-cooler-thats-actually

Whoops doesn't actually cost $185 more like $400 now with same features: https://coolest.com/collections/coolest-coolers/products/coolest-cooler

Same deal "sales of new units will fulfill original backers" - five years later some people still haven't gotten it.

All signs point to TBL being catastrophically mis-budgeted to the point where the only salvation is a rich pinball sugar daddy.

This is right on. I could be the angel investor and there is no chance in hell I'd do that. My money is going to much better investments. I'll buy one guaranteed by Cointaker for $12.5k but that is as much as I believe in this venture.

Page 200 of this thread and sadly the EAs still aren't any closer to getting the games they paid for and deserve.

From the perspective of if and when we'll actually get these games it seems much further away than it was 4 years ago!

The EA machines are around here somewhere.

So when do these games make it stateside and into peoples homes?

Someone said 10 days to go (yesterday), so maybe 9 days from now? Apparently the games were picked up at ARA.

Obviously this thread doesn't have a lot of golfers

It's a bit random but don't be surprised if Customs and Border Protection cause a delay.

There would be NO reason for an angel investor/PE firm to take on the liabilities of DP - the only value of the company is the intellectual property and maybe some parts. This is a bankruptcy folks. EA's, myself included are never getting games previously paid for. There is a lot of dreaming going on around here but this is the fact of the matter.

Barry and Jaap are covering their asses without regard for their customers - one final big kick in the balls. Both of them should be ashamed of their totally unethical way of running their business. Calling them incompetent would be a complement. The thought of them resurrecting the company is a total joke.

I hope that the 40 games go to happy homes - I do feel that the distribution of these games could have been done in a more fair manner but it is what it is - bankruptcy is ugly. Cointaker had every right to purchase these games from ARA, like it or not

To the potential flippers of these 40 games - yes you are scum.

Its been a hell of a ride.......time to drain this saga (for me)!

But as I said... you left out how many games the market would actually support in your hypothetical. So again using your numbers... if the investor put out 1 mil plus the “cost” of the ea games (which really should be the cost+overhead... because games don’t just appear from a pile of parts instantly). So that’s 1.85million in your numbers.

At 75% of 4500 = 3375 per game. They’d have to SELL another 550 games to pay off the investor. But there isn’t enough money there to fund building 550 games... so you again need more money to try to get back to even. And the downward spiral continues. Then you have to ask... can we even sell that many games at those prices? And how long would it take to produce that and sell it, etc.

ROI isn’t there at these small numbers and margins. And the capital intensive up front funding needed makes it a tall barrier to entry.

This is why the math just doesn’t favor things happening as you describe.

Not sure it is even viable, but basically you need to completely screw over the EAs and right off that liability. It is ugly, but that would help. In addition, do the same for any other supplier / investor liabilities. Basically claim bankruptcy to eliminate all liability (or something like that).

Now you can start over, but who (suppliers, employees, customers, investors) are willing to take this ride again?

TIME will tell us all...

You are 99% spot on! (Focus your disgust 100% at DP and no one else selling/flipping, organizing, distributing).

People that flip games; whether they were in the first 40 of this game or the second 40 make no difference to me. Get the games to North America to play - let the free market speak. At least people have a chance to see, own one.

When I got in this hobby 13 years ago I could not afford new games... I would buy old machines, fix them , play them, then flip them and try to make a small profit .... to reinvest to my next game. No one is getting rich flipping a game that I can see. (Also, never made money on every flip - lost money too).

Now I buy new games (typically LEs from Stern and lose $1000 plus when I sell them). Maybe I need to get back into flipping a few to break even!!

To be clear - I think the people buying the games with the intent to flip them SUCK.

It's their right to do it, but it sucks.

Yep, $12,500 can apparently buy you a machine, but it can't buy you class.

Did anyone see this?

ebay.com link: itm

Let me be super clear NO PINBALL GAME IS WORTH $30,000 no matter how rare! There is no way this person is selling this game for 30k no way in hell! Being an opportunist is perfectly legal in the USA, however to me anyone this is in the category of the goof asking for 50k for a back to the future. LOL

Just think for a cool $80,000 you could have a Big Lebowski and Back to the Future off of Ebay! Boy if you pulled that off you'd be the talk of pinside. LOL

I would just like to reiterate my above post "$12,500 can apparently buy you a machine, but it can't buy you class."

yep, that's special k's machine
I think that his catchphrase for 2019 is "taking being a d*ckhead to a new level"

It’s just Kaneda trolling for a reaction (and maybe an actual offer) using that ridiculous $30,000 Facebook listing as inspiration. Either way, it’s pretty crass and disrespectful to those who got burned.

Do you watch pawn stars? What do they do in every single show? They buy stuff for less than its worth to flip. What do car lots do... they offer you less for your car than its worth so they can resell it for a profit. What do banks do... they loan you money for a house and when its all said and done they get back like three times the investment. The list goes on... its a pinball game.

If you ran across a barn find classic car, wouldn't you buy it if you knew you could flip it for a ton more? If you heard thru a friend that some guy has a pinball machine in their basement they want removed... wouldn't you go take a look hoping it was some mint condition big bang bar? If the guy said yeah just want to move out this old thing, then said I'd take 1500 are you going to seriously turn around and say no let me get you 15,000.

We have to keep things in perspective here... its a pinball game. If people want to buy them, and flip them there is nothing you can do about it.

Life goes on! I will say people should buy the game because they want the game, I want the game. But people can do whatever they want its their choice.

I will say this however until I'm dead NO PINBALL is worth $30k, just like Beatles isn't worth 25k. But if some really dumb people pay it oh well... the world is full of dumb people. LOL

Just like 8500 or 9500 or whatever current NIB go for! None of them will buy you class - right?

So now that we got that settled - EAs need to band together for a class action lawsuit (if possible in Netherlands).

He may or may not have put that on ebay. I honestly don't care because I'm going to focus on what I do not what some moron puts up for sale on ebay. Just like the guy who tried to sell Back to the Future on ebay for 50k. That was a joke!

He said it was part of Hollywood history!

NO PINBALL GAME IS WORTH 30K! PERIOD!

It won't sell!

As for Kaneda, I think he likes getting a rise out of people. I've said this before he knows no more than the average person, he's doing a podcast because honestly he enjoys doing it. He's not getting rich doing it that's for sure. People have the option listen or don't listen either way it doesn't change how much money he makes from his real job. The more controversial he is the more people listen just like Fake News CNN or MSNBC the more outrageous they get with their Trump news, they hope that will turn into ratings. Do you think Rachel Maddow really believes half the stuff she puts on the air? Shock jocks like Howard Stern get ratings from being controversial ... Kaneda enjoys this. C'mon hasn't anyone figured that out yet.

I get the hurt feelings and being pissed - however the devil here is DP. Not flippers, not Cointaker, not ARA, etc.

I've been on Pawn Stars.

Special k is an evil genius

Screenshot-2019-02-24_01.30.54 (resized).png

Seriously what did you sell... do you have a clip on youtube? I want to see it!

Did you sell a pinball, I've seen pinballs on there several times.