(Topic ID: 232808)

Ten 2019 PINBALL PREDICTIONS.......

By iceman44

5 years ago


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    #1 5 years ago

    1) . A whole lot is riding on whether or not DR pinball can deliver on its goal of making great pinball machines for less than the cost of a Stern pro. I think Stern is concerned about it, however, despite all the $$$ and talent DR has I don't believe they are going to be able to actually efficiently manufacture the game they are spending all that $$$ on creating. It's one thing to Noodle and Doodle, its a whole different thing to actually produce 12,000 pinball machines per year.

    Stern has 300+ employees, not "temp workers". Look at the problems JJP has pumping out consistent quality in quantity. There seem to be a slew of minor JJP issues with POTC production. I would assume most of the "line workers" are not permanent JJP employees and thus quality suffers.

    2). I think JJP is about to hit a couple of grand slams with Willy Wonka and Toy Story, especially Wonka. They need it badly to get over the hump. Gotta sell more pins to spread that fixed overhead out over much higher volume. And to NOT keep raising prices that are already too high.

    Jack used to say, "WOZ will be our weakest effort, we look forward to getting better and better each game". Thus far, that hasn't happened.

    2019 is the year that JJP finally puts it all together.

    JJP will ditch the absolutely F ing ridiculous current SE, LE, CE makeup. Take a cue from what works elsewhere. Differentiate and get real with actual LE numbers. There is no desire or hype associated with any of these "models" other than a CE that has been fumbled and bumbled thus far.

    3). Stern is going to keep crushing it 2019 despite the same old complaints, high prices and low quality. Yet they will still sell the shit out of games because they make GREAT THEMES, WITH GREAT ARTWORK and mostly KICKASS CODE. Simple as that.

    Munsters and Jaws will be HUGE and Steve Ritchie will be looking to redeem himself as the "King" with his original theme.

    4). Spooky Pinball will announce their next game at TPF again because they need the lead time on the $1k deposits to get the ball rolling on the next title.

    I don't think it's going to work quite as well this time regardless of the title. We already know that Spooky is fully committed for 2019 to building ALL of the ACNC games. And then there is Scott Danesi's game to mix in there.

    How is Spooky going to actually make a new game along with Danesi's? 2020 is a long ways away.

    5). The Secondary market is going to continue to get better and better for Buyers with all the new titles coming out in 2019. The "Supply" of $8k plus pins is growing faster and faster. That will lead to bigger drops on the secondary market. Thus, CHOOSE WISELY on your Nib purchases, plan on holding and playing them for a long time. You should anyhow.

    6). AP pinball. I'm impressed thus far with the first couple of efforts. Despite its faults, Houdini is a good theme and excellent first go. Despite the theme, I'm a fan of Oktoberfest. I will own one down the road once they get all the kinks worked out. I'm looking forward to #3

    7). CGC. Man they keep getting better and better with production, quality, etc. and the pricing is right. How many more remakes can and will they do that people will want to buy? They have done the top 3 now and it goes downhill BIG time from there from a mass appeal standpoint. There are a ton of other games that can be remade that I'd like and so would others, but i don't think they can get close to the same number of sales as the Big 3.

    CGC announces an original title at this years Expo.

    8). 2019 is the time to "plant your flag firmly" and solidify your foundation if you are anybody other than Stern. When will the recession hit? 2020? Europe is already in a big economic slowdown.

    9). Elwin is going to find it harder to capture the magic on Game #2, pretty tough to top IMDN. Whatever game Stern makes that Lyman is coding I will buy, regardless of theme.

    10). Top 3 games of 2019

    -Wonka
    -Danesi #2
    -Ritchie's Original theme

    #2 5 years ago

    Ice, you are a damn smart guy.

    I don't even have anything to add. You really captured it all pretty well.

    #3 5 years ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    Ice, you are a damn smart guy.
    I don't even have anything to add. You really captured it all pretty well.

    No right or wrongs here Hilton. Just some thoughts on hopefully an awesome 2019 pinball scene.

    #4 5 years ago

    Found myself nodding all the way through - well said.
    I’d add Brian Eddy’s game somewhere in that top 3

    PS: Imagine the next Eddy & Sheats, Jr. creation - the mind boggles!

    #5 5 years ago

    I'm in for Haunted House Party if I do better and get
    To be on Jeopardy next time around

    #6 5 years ago

    I agree except I don't see the appeal in Wonka or Toy Story. Excited for Steve's next title. Always excited for new Spooky titles but the wait to get ACNC #33 while others are already being put up for sale will probably mean I won't be calling at 8am, day 1 for the next title.

    #7 5 years ago

    I certainly hope your right about JJP. I love their games, but these manufacturing problems are a real concern...my concern is if they don't figure their shit out they won't be around for games 5 or 6.....certainly hope I'm wrong as I've owned all their games.

    #8 5 years ago

    Nicely stated. Pinball has been in an amazing state of excitement since TBL expo reveal. A lot of unknowns for 2019 still but if the rumors are true, it should be another incredible year for those in the market for new games!

    Happy New Year pinsiders!

    #9 5 years ago

    A prediction of my own: the price of pinball parts may start to come down and in turn could help lower the BoM costs of boutique projects. With WMS spares getting harder to find, Stern appears to have a monopoly on new mechs like drop targets. There could well be a gap in the market for a supplier to reverse-engineer patent-expired parts and undercut the frankly ludicrous asking price of $200 for a standard Stern 3-bank. I believe this was another reason Beatles was able to get away with the 8k base asking price.

    #10 5 years ago

    I'll play.

    1) 2019 will see more spectacular pinball company failures. The rubber is meeting the road, and companies have to be profitable and those that aren't will shutter.

    2) Stern will have a record year, between one high profile release after another, manufacturing efficiency, world wide distribution networks, and the ability to weather a dud release and move on to the next one.

    3) Deeproot will debut their much delayed first game at Expo 2019, with much fanfare (bought and paid for by their aggressive marketing dollars) but then find the sales numbers are not anywhere near what they expected, and no clear path to the sales numbers they need, they will pivot to something less than "real pinball" (app, VR, something else)

    4) Economic slowdown will put downward pressure on pinball sales overall, as pinheads tighten their spending.

    5) Location play still grows, a lot easier to convince someone to drop a dollar than $8 grand. Overall interest in pinball is strong, just not the same money being thrown around at the high end.

    6) JJP will release 2 games this year, needing to throw some gas on the fire, in a last ditch attempt at proving the company can become profitable.

    7) Pinball Brothers come out of the woodwork suddenly with their Queen pinball. However it is DOA because of all the people burnt on their handling of Alien.

    8 ) Steve Ritchie's next game is a massive hit with the pinball show crowd, leaving less dollars on the table for all the other manufacturers competing for the same buyer.

    9) Out of the blue a new company announces going into pinball.

    10) Iceman goes on an epic drunken pinside rant about deeproot.

    #11 5 years ago

    Hoping that something new by me can be ready and come out before the end of 2019. Will probably make it as a small studio / homebrew project first to see if people like it and the game idea catches on.

    #12 5 years ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    4). Spooky Pinball will announce their next game at TPF again because they need the lead time on the $1k deposits to get the ball rolling on the next title.

    Ya' missed on this one sir... we will be at TPF having fun and that's all. Promise!

    HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!!

    #13 5 years ago

    I agree with everything except the code for Stern. A lot of us are still waiting for code for GB, granted they have done the code for various games, but boy that takes a long time.

    #14 5 years ago

    Im sorry that my Predictions are about market saturation and overload, and are more Pessimistic.
    Good for customers, tough on Companies.

    #15 5 years ago

    I'll piggyback as the newb.

    1. A major manufacturer releases the same pinball machine with 2 or more different themes. By that I mean that a manufacturer releases a new flagship machine with alternate re-theme skins. Example would be Stern releasing "The Munsters" with a Munsters Skin, sound effects, and programming as well as an alternate Shaft skin and programming using the exact same layout, equipment, and price points.

    2. Chicago Gaming Company hires on game developers to release "Special Edition" remakes. Example would be CGC selling a Cactus Canyon remake with an option at the beginning to play "classic" mode or "Super Duper New Mode", much like the 2 in one games available on the Judge Dredd. Bonus: CGC releases this feature in an upgrade chip (for a fee) with existing remakes starting with MMr.

    3. One of the major manufacturers releases a "redemption" pin specifically aimed at young (under 10) players. This pin has an Angry Birds, Mario, Fortnight, or other childish theme, and is a huge success.

    4. A major existing manufacturer that does not currently do pinball releases something innovative that impacts the industry (like the 1 on 1 space invaders pin we've seen floating around Japan).

    5. The price of "entry level" DMD machines continues to rise as more people get into the market. B and C pins from 1990+ continue to rise in price until they get close to the price of a used Stern Pro.

    6. The price of used high end pins falls as more and more 8k+ machines are released and the market becomes over saturated.

    7. More NIB pins are sold in 2019 than any year since Bally/Williams closed down.

    8. Despite more pins being sold than any other year this millennium being sold, one or more of the boutique manufacturers goes under as there are only so many slices of pie to go around.

    9. One of the major streamers is blacklisted by the entire pinball community for saying or doing something wildly inappropriate.

    10. A for sale thread on pinside will be even longer than the "Thunderbirds" thread.

    Final Bonus: I'll play pinball every day

    #16 5 years ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    1) . A whole lot is riding on whether or not DR pinball can deliver on its goal of making great pinball machines for less than the cost of a Stern pro.....

    Annnnnd you lost me

    #17 5 years ago
    Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

    3. One of the major manufacturers releases a "redemption" pin specifically aimed at young (under 10) players. This pin has an Angry Birds, Mario, Fortnight, or other childish theme, and is a huge success.

    This is the only kind of game Rovio would allow, they refuse to have their brand associated with or placed anywhere that isn't exclusively family-friendly.

    #18 5 years ago

    noobies will continue to buy and sell 3k games for 5k!

    #19 5 years ago
    Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

    9. One of the major streamers is blacklisted by the entire pinball community for saying or doing something wildly inappropriate.

    This should have happened in 2018. Very surprised it didn't.

    #20 5 years ago

    7). CGC. Man they keep getting better and better with production, quality, etc. and the pricing is right. How many more remakes can and will they do that people will want to buy? They have done the top 3 now and it goes downhill BIG time from there from a mass appeal standpoint. There are a ton of other games that can be remade that I'd like and so would others, but i don't think they can get close to the same number of sales as the Big 3.

    Anyone predicting that they ever would/ could remake TZ?
    Id be all over that.

    #21 5 years ago
    Quoted from Sinistarrett:

    7). CGC. Man they keep getting better and better with production, quality, etc. and the pricing is right. How many more remakes can and will they do that people will want to buy? They have done the top 3 now and it goes downhill BIG time from there from a mass appeal standpoint. There are a ton of other games that can be remade that I'd like and so would others, but i don't think they can get close to the same number of sales as the Big 3.
    Anyone predicting that they ever would/ could remake TZ?
    Id be all over that.

    TZ is the next obvious one from a mass appeal/game rating stand point. That being said I think the number of games out in the wild along with the BOM may prevent this from happening?

    #22 5 years ago
    Quoted from TheLaw:

    Annnnnd you lost me

    I’m always lost! Like the blind leading the blind

    Well it’s game over for DR if they can’t deliver “the greatest pinball ever” for less than a Stern pro?

    Now that would go down as an EPIC pinball disaster wouldn’t it?

    On the other hand, if they somehow can make it work it’s kind of a game changer for pricing?

    I’m not holding my breath

    #23 5 years ago

    Someone needs to figure out how to pick up the pieces on

    TBL
    ALIEN
    QUEEN

    And yes sir Frolic, I predict some quality drunken rants in 2019!

    #24 5 years ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Well it’s game over for DR if they can’t deliver “the greatest pinball ever” for less than a Stern pro?
    Now that would go down as an EPIC pinball disaster wouldn’t it?

    I don't know how epic it would be...I don't know anyone looking from the outside in that thinks they can do it. I mean shit, I'm all for it believe me.

    #25 5 years ago
    Quoted from TheLaw:

    I don't know how epic it would be...I don't know anyone looking from the outside in that thinks they can do it. I mean shit, I'm all for it believe me.

    Blowing 15 million is a bit of $$$

    An epic fail imho

    Miracle if they make it

    #26 5 years ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    3). Stern is going to keep crushing it 2019 despite the same old complaints, high prices and low quality. Yet they will still sell the shit out of games because they make GREAT THEMES, WITH GREAT ARTWORK and mostly KICKASS CODE. Simple as that.

    I agree with most everything except the above declaration...………. IMHO the only thing Stern has crushed over the last ten years is the expectation they will build a QUALITY pin consistent with their pricing. Don't misunderstand me I have no animosity towards Stern, hell I appreciate all they've done to keep pinball alive for us, I just think if you're going after the home market build a product that not only looks good but last longer than a cheap coat of paint.

    11 months later
    #27 4 years ago
    Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

    I'll piggyback as the newb.
    1. A major manufacturer releases the same pinball machine with 2 or more different themes. By that I mean that a manufacturer releases a new flagship machine with alternate re-theme skins. Example would be Stern releasing "The Munsters" with a Munsters Skin, sound effects, and programming as well as an alternate Shaft skin and programming using the exact same layout, equipment, and price points.
    2. Chicago Gaming Company hires on game developers to release "Special Edition" remakes. Example would be CGC selling a Cactus Canyon remake with an option at the beginning to play "classic" mode or "Super Duper New Mode", much like the 2 in one games available on the Judge Dredd. Bonus: CGC releases this feature in an upgrade chip (for a fee) with existing remakes starting with MMr.
    3. One of the major manufacturers releases a "redemption" pin specifically aimed at young (under 10) players. This pin has an Angry Birds, Mario, Fortnight, or other childish theme, and is a huge success.
    4. A major existing manufacturer that does not currently do pinball releases something innovative that impacts the industry (like the 1 on 1 space invaders pin we've seen floating around Japan).
    5. The price of "entry level" DMD machines continues to rise as more people get into the market. B and C pins from 1990+ continue to rise in price until they get close to the price of a used Stern Pro.
    6. The price of used high end pins falls as more and more 8k+ machines are released and the market becomes over saturated.
    7. More NIB pins are sold in 2019 than any year since Bally/Williams closed down.
    8. Despite more pins being sold than any other year this millennium being sold, one or more of the boutique manufacturers goes under as there are only so many slices of pie to go around.
    9. One of the major streamers is blacklisted by the entire pinball community for saying or doing something wildly inappropriate.
    10. A for sale thread on pinside will be even longer than the "Thunderbirds" thread.
    Final Bonus: I'll play pinball every day

    Well, it's been a year... How'd we stack up on our 2019 predictions?
    1. Wrong
    2. Wrong
    3. Wrong
    4. Correct (Stern Stranger Things Projection Mapping).
    5. Correct
    6. Correct
    7. Correct (as far as I know).
    8. Correct
    9. Wrong
    10. Wrong
    Bonus: I've missed about 8 days when out of town, but have kept the streak up with B/W tables on my phone.

    How'd you guys do... iceman44 ?

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