Honestly I think they're both going to end up great games. I just can't justify either's price tag unfortunately, but I look forward to playing both.
I wonder how much longer it's going to be before Stern's Premiums rise to the point where they're off my list too. My Star Trek Premium, with shipping and CA sales tax was around $7200 iirc, but I can't remember if that included the shaker I bought too, or if that was on top of it.
That's pushing it for me. New game prices seem to just keep rising and rising. At least I feel like with The Hobbit and The Big Lebowski that you're getting the quality for the money. I'd like to see what TBL's "dots" really look like in the end. They're not really optimizing for the low rez, lots of blurry images and movie clips. Hobbit's screen is beautiful, Jean Paul did a really nice job with it, very impressed by his work.
I think Hobbit's playfield itself is great. JP really took it to a great place, and I know it was a lot of work to redo so much, but it seriously paid off into a superior product. But there's just no beating The Big Lebowski's hand drawn art; the line work, the colors and patterns, it's just an instant classic to me. Modern and oldschool at the same time.
Sucks they had to ditch the cannabis leaf, but we'll get something sparking ...
They just each have their strengths.
I think the question is going to be down to playfield design and rules. Keith is easily the favorite in the rules department, but he does write much "longer" games, so it's just a matter of if you like those super deep, long playing games or not. With 30+ modes (I think) it could pass LOTR and TSPP and WOZ in gameplay time. But if you like that style my guess is that it's brilliant.
My impression from the beta of TBL is that it's a little more like a 90s game in style, not in a bad way, but just a little more straight forward. Hard to say without final rules, but my guess is that it will be a little more accessible, and not quite so long-playing.
I need to put more time into Hobbit, away from a show where I can hear it and get used to the geometry. I generally need a few games to get my bearings on a new pin, and Expo didn't really allow for that. (I hear people in line were rude if you didn't suck and drain fast enough.) What I've heard is that it's fun, from people who's opinions I respect. NimblePin told me he got to play with Keith giving him tips, and really got a taste for the rules, and said it was great. As I recall even Rarehero thought it was interesting at least.
TBL I've played, and it's cool, but it was just too early to really do more than try out some shots. I think it will satisfy people who like a less open and sparse feeling layout. Hobbit has the 4 popups, and they use them a lot, but the playfield has a sense of everything being pushed to the edges.
To me that's a toss up. Obviously we'll judge after they come out. But my guess is each will shine in a different style, and you should pick the one you're more likely to enjoy.