(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

7 years ago


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Post #5101 Roth conversion advice. Posted by iceman44 (3 years ago)

Post #19981 How To Read US Debt Clock Posted by pinnyheadhead (5 months ago)


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#99 7 years ago

Interesting thread.

I sell deep out of the money short premium on both sides of the major indexes all the time. Primarily the S&P and Russell 2000 cash settled indexes, but if there's good risk/reward, any underlying is fair game. I start closing out contracts at 50-60% of my max profit and rarely if ever hold to expiration. Contracts that move against me and wind up in the money get rolled out to the next expiration cycle.

I also have a buy and hold strategy for what I refer to as "change the world" stocks. I'm in for the long haul with a select few companies that are doing things that change the way a significant portion of the world does something significant in their lives. I only sell out of these positions when either a) the company seems to be changing course in some manner that looks like a long term negative OR b) the stock has become so overvalued that it's unlikely it's numbers will EVER justify it's current price. It's all a crapshoot of course, I bought Google shortly after it's IPO and sold at $285 thinking that was all the money there was to take off the table.... Shoulda held that one a little longer.

#182 7 years ago
Quoted from Whysnow:

curious, how many of you are strictly in stock/bonds?
Obviously RD has done well in real estate. Anyone else have rentals?
I have a few single family homes and have done well thus far. I am trying to figure out a longer term plan that is less hassle and more money for my time.
Basically I started with the plan of building to 6-10 single family homes and then think about a like kind exchange to something bigger/consolidated. Thus far I have found that single families are pretty solid for the increase in value and rent over time, ease to find good tenants, and ability to keep tenants for more than just 1 year at a time.
Down sides to single families are that they always do a crappier job on required outdoor maintainence then you would like, plus you have the multiple roofs/yards/etc... compared to a consolidated property.
Thinking of 4/8/16 units in the future but the calibur of renter obviously goes down and brings in new headaches.
Also thinking of some mixed commercial/residentail but that is a whole new world to enter in to.
I am struggling with finding real world tips and research short of quiting my current real job to go work for a few different management companies in town and that is not desirable as I liek my regular gig.
I have the advantage of knowing my side of the city VERY well and have mapped out planned redistricting/redevelopment. I know in particular of a few places that are slated for large scale changes in 2022-2024 due to some major artery changes for roads, but dont have the funds/ability to get on these properties just yet. They are going to double in value in 5-8 years and would be an easy resell (purchase at 600k now and will be worth 1.2 at minimum after redistricting.) They are less desirable currently due to location but that is turning quick in the next few years as plans become more public/solidified. I have thought alot about making the jump into commerical but honestly dont know where to get started and am risk adverse on this (things are good and relatively stress free with current properties).
Advice from those with experience/knowledge is appreciated as I continue to think things over.

As a young carpenter starting out many moons ago, I quickly realized there was no pension plan in my line of work and most of the guys over 40 were working in pain every day because they couldn't afford not to. Bad backs, blown out knees, etc were all too common for my liking. So I started buying up land when and where I could find it in my spare time and building rental properties on it during the slow season. Taking that path has been good to me, so I try to pass on anything that I think might be helpful.

I would say that "typically", you're going to cashflow more on a per unit basis with multi-unit properties as compared to single families. That, however is a very broad statement that has a lot of factors that can change things, such as the purchase price, financing rate, state of repair, local tax rate, occupancy rate, etc. But a dozen units under one roof has always provided me with much more free cash flow than a dozen single families, for less work on my end to boot.

What jumped out at me in your post was the assumption that moving up in size of property means accepting a drop in resident quality. There are good, hard working, decent people in every area and at all income levels. A good resident screening process makes all the difference. That and being willing and able to keep a unit vacant for a month or two if necessary to find the right new resident. A bad tenant is MUCH more expensive than a vacancy.

Our screening process begins with our ads, progresses through the phone interview, viewing and application process and is designed specifically to have the deadbeats self select themselves out of our process so we don't have to.

The next step after finding the right new resident is keeping them, and we've also worked out some simple things that help on the retention side. With proper screening and retention techniques, we've been able to get our average occupancy to 7 years as of now with a goal of getting it to 10. That's in both multi unit and single family, while keeping rents at market levels, with very, very few rent collection issues.

Of course a bad tenant slips through the cracks now and then, and a good resident occasionally turns bad, but that's an occupational hazard I'll take over climbing around a frozen roof in the dead of winter every day of the week.

Since you seem to be interested in gaining information/experience on the operational side of this business, I'm happy to share our ads, phone interview questions, application, etc, as well as explain our reasons for doing things the way we do, in the order we do. But it's a lengthy conversation best taken private. PM me after the holiday's are over if you're interested.

Also, I'd recommend Jeff Taylor's stuff over at mrlandlord.com. At least on the operational/tenant management side of things. Several years back, I booked into a conference he held in Orlando that was strictly about managing property. My intention was to get the write off for a preplanned vacation. We were going to Orlando, so why not? I didn't have high expectations, but I found our management philosophies very closely aligned.

#188 7 years ago
Quoted from rotordave:

Those are exactly the deals you need to take advantage of. Inside information is GOLD and you don't want to be that guy who says "awwwww I wish I bought those places when I had the chance"

I want to echo what Dave has said here. If you know something others either don't know yet, or haven't acted on, and you REALLY know you know it, find a way to take action. One or two deals can set you up for life when timing, circumstances and knowledge come together.

As an example, I've got several apartment buildings sitting on lots that were originally zoned for single family homes. I purchased them based on their value as a house lot. What I knew, from actively buying, building and developing in that general area, was that obtaining a "development agreement" (the term used in our area for a zoning change) on those lots for multi unit construction was highly likely.

Those purchases worked out very well and confirmed forever for me that it's worth the skullsweat required to figure out how to pull a deal together.

1 week later
#213 7 years ago
Quoted from TimeBandit:

So, here's how to fake looking like a pro investor/trader. And by pro, I mean someone who has half a clue.
First, NEVER give advice and don't tell people what you think is going to happen. If you absolutely can't help yourself and have to prove your fortune telling skills, do it in a way that doesn't sound like you absolutely know what is going to happen, because you don't. All the traders I have ever known who I would give the time of day to always use language like, "I'm a bit worried about....", or, "What if the way we've been thinking about this is actually...", or, "I couldn't sleep last night as I can't work out....". All professional traders are CONTINUALLY TORMENTED BY DOUBT.
Second, If you are saying or thinking something that can be freely sourced from the internet or CNBC or Yahoo Finance or your local suburban accountant, then STOP THINKING IT and especially STOP SAYING IT. You immediately give away your amateur status, and you will likely end up damaging yourself or others. All that crap is in the market a thousand times over. You think you just stumbled across all the answers??
Recognise that you are a product of statistics. Plenty of people make money in the markets, plenty more than that lose. You are not special. You have to exist. The richest person on the planet has to be SOMEONE.
And lastly, for now, making money is not about being right. It is about being small when you are wrong and massive when you are right. The biggest mistake you can make as a trader is being right and being small. The only reason I have ever fired a trader is because they were absolutely right about something in every way, except they didn't have a position.
I have traded the equity derivative, commodity and bond markets for bulge bracket banks in the biggest dealing rooms in the world for over 25 years. I have been wrong a LOT. More than you would believe. I don't need to work any more.
I will be wrong again.
I will never tell you what I think is going to happen.
Listen, don't talk.
Good luck to you all.
Oh, and pinball is waaaaay more fun than trading.

There's some dang solid wisdom right there.

1 year later
#873 5 years ago
Quoted from Londonpinball:

Thanks for the tip,
You don’t trade ur own options? You call a broker ?
What size trade was the last one you posted ?
Do you recommend any books on option trading ?

tastytrade.com will supply you with a shitton of education on the world of options and other derivatives free of charge. But for the love of God, spend some serious time either paper trading using one of the platforms that have that built in (thinkorswim is one for example) or trading extremely small (one contract max trading size in lower value underlying securities) until you've got some real world understanding about how it all works. It's a very easy place to go belly up quick.

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