Stock Market Traders?

Yep,

Dollar cost averaging works wonders over time. I won't be touching my Roths or 401k for atleast 35 years, so up, down, sideways... it's all gravy at this point in time. I'm pretty sure my growth stock mutual funds will be worth more than I paid for them when it's time to sell. Pretty darn sure the stock market will be up over where it is now in 2050 when I need it.

The kids' 529s won't be touched for another 10 years, and I'm pretty sure the market will be back up by then too... I'd bet my children's future on it.

And... the Stock Market has its biggest 1 day point rise ever.

Not paranoid... but legally, you don't have to tell a law enforcement officer you phone password. However, refusing to provide biometric data like a thumb print or face scan is obstruction of justice... so passwords are the way to go.

With that said... my phone stays unlocked

DOW 28,000 by December.

So I'm a buy and hold kind of guy with 30+ years until I retire with all my holdings outside my residence in mutual funds. I am curious how the active traders are playing on the 850+ point drop in the market today (8/5/2019).

I'm 50% VIGAX and 50% VIGRX. Slow and steady wins the race. I'll spread that out a little more as I get more to invest.

I plan on raiding my 401k for funds... in 34 years. If the market goes down this decade... more stock money for me in the future! If the market goes up this decade... more stock money for me in the future. Long story short, I'm good.

Start paying for oldests' college in 10 years though.

Dow 60,000 by 2030!

I like mutual funds for easy management and instant diversification.

Here is my 2019 performance:
Retirement and Kids College is all invested in Vanguard Growth Index Fund Investor Shares (VIGRX) and Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Investor Shares (VSGAX) returning 32.96% and 30.81% year over year each. Can't win every year, but very happy. S&P500 was up 29.6% in 2019. Both had expense ratios less than .17% so outperformed the S&P500 even with expenses.

100% agreed. My point is that both funds beat the S&P 500 even with expense ratios included.

I know just enough about the stock market to know that I don't know what I'm doing, and mutual funds are a better option for me. Can you let me know where my logic is wrong above?

This makes perfect sense. Thank you.

I'm dollar cost averaging 20% of my income every other week into mutual funds. Once I have another 100k in my accounts I'll re-balance and repeat the process. This bad news, is good for my investments before I retire in 32 years... good news helps too. I figure about a 0% chance the market will be lower in 2051 when I retire.

As someone with three asthmatic kids, and a solid history of being completely healthy except for having a strong susceptibility to pneumonia (caught it again in December)… please don't make the pneumonic plague analogy.

I'm totally cool with it. I just wish my Father in Law wasn't literally retiring tomorrow (2/27) and living off of his savings. For me this is just a buying opportunity.

Well, normally I max out the IRA contributions for the year in December. However, after last week's wild ride I've decided to go ahead and max out the Roth this morning. I just threw it into another USAA mutual fund.

I can't buy/sell socks without treating it like gambling, so this mild effort to time the market is about as far as I can go. Time to root for stocks to go back up again!

Go Bull go!

And, the Dow Jones has the biggest 1 day gain ever.

market (resized).png

So... 3/12 will be worst dow day of year...

-2352... Sometimes I hate being right. Worst Dow day ever by points. 4th worst by percentage loss (-9.99%)

Presidential press conference announced for 3 EST on the Corona Virus. Will the market spike or crater afterwards?

Well… DOW has spiked 1,000 points since the press conference started. Up 7% overall for the day. Still doesn't make up for yesterday but the needle is moving in the right direction.

And the DOW closes almost 2,000 points up. US markets up almost 10% today. Doesn't make up for yesterday, but comes close.

That quote didn't age well...

Whelp,

I just bailed on the market. Switched the kids 529's to "preservation of capital". Switched my 401k to "preservation of capital/short term bonds". Put in sell orders on all my IRA mutual funds. I will jump back in when the market hits 24,000 and I've missed the first part of the run or when I think it's bottomed. I think things are going to get worse before they get better. They say we are 8-10 days behind Italy on this. When Italy's market shoots up for a solid week, I'll jump back in, but it has been dropping even faster than the DOW. I don't know where we are going to bottom out, but if my theory on Italy is correct the DOW will close below 17,000 by next Friday. I'm guessing we won't see the lows until... sigh... July.

When I go back in I'll go back in with aggressive mutual funds, but will put my ROTH IRA in stocks. We'll see what looks cheap in 2 weeks time. I can only adjust funds in the kids 529s 2x per year, and I just did it, so I have to be extra careful on that one.

Down to 17k by the end of next week.

So where and when do you think the bottom will hit... Dow 7K in July?

"Quinine". This stuff is used in the saltwater aquarium hobby to get rid of flatworms. It used to go for 20$ a bottle. A few weeks ago they were going for $500 a bottle on Ebay. Now you can't find it.

We used to have day laborers come in and buy fish anti-biotics when I worked at an aquarium store. People treat the pet store like an emergency pharmacy.

So much has changed in 9 days. Boeing is under $100 a share now. I'd probably buy a 1,000 shares if it hits $20 this month.

Boeing: $20 per share.

I'm not touching anything until sometime after the Dow is under 16,999 or above 24,000 and I've missed the rally.

No, she went to prison for lying to the FBI about doing the same stuff.

Will the dow be up or down atbthe end of the week? I am predicting sub 17k.

Looking into Cracker Barrel, Ruths Chris, and Red Robbin.

Bougt Cracker Barrel and Six Flags yesterday morning in the IRA. Threw the kids college fund bank in mutual funds. Cant move it again until 2021. Will look at throwing 401k back in April 1st when I can move again.

Sold my six Flags after 24 hours for a 20% gain. Bailed to buy red robbin. My cracker barrel is down 10%. All else in sensible mutual funds. Fun 24 hours!

Look for something labled preservation of cash or short term bond.

I like cracker barrel and.red robbin more but am currently losing my butt on them.

If Im not mistakren Amazon makes more off of cloud computing than web sales. It should be under a huge demand right now and its competitors cant expand right now

If it makes you feel any better my Red Robbin stocks are down another 12% today.

Well... STKS is down 40% today... Down under $1 a share again. Didn't bite last time. Don't think I'm touching it this time.

And if you sell it now you can make 20% as it's back up to 1.20 in the past... hour.

I can't move my 401k money back into the market until April (tomorrow), and would okay with a "temporary" dip in the market.

With that said, Go RRGB, Go CBRL!

I just don't know what the market overall is going to do. If there was no government intervention on it I'm guessing it would be under 15k by now, but I just don't know what those fed dollars will do.

Just put in an order for 1,000 shares of BURG... the parent company of Hooters at $.31 a share (a whoping $300). It is currently at .38$. I am still of the opinion that restaurant stocks are beyond bargain basement prices right now and will rebound in the coming year. If what they say is true and 1/3 of Restaurants go out of business, where are their customers going to go? Yes there may be less customers, but I have a feeling there will be an even smaller supply of restaurants to serve that need.

100% agreed. My main Restaurant plays are in Cracker Barrel and Red Robin. Cracker Barrel in particular is not going anywhere anytime soon and the same is true to a lesser extent for Red Robin.

Hooters stock is a purely speculative play, and at worse I will be out the price of a new Color DMD on that one. Hooters stock price has been undergoing some pretty wild price swings in the past 2 weeks, more so than most other stocks. If I can get in at $.31 and get out at $.42, I will be happy and well entertained.

I fall solidly in this corner.

Jumped out on the way down at 22k. Jumped back in at 20k on the way up in the kids college fund and IRAs, jumped in Monday morning with the 401k. I have been burned 1 time in the stock market, and that was back in 2011-2012 betting against the market right before they unleashed "Quantitative easing". When the government starts throwing money around, in general, the market goes up. I think the bottom of the market will be in before the worst of the virus hits... which is coming in the next 30 days here in the USA (me thinks). I'm losing my butt on my speculative single stock plays, but am holding on to them for now. I bought Cracker Barrel at 99, it's at 84.88 after market (it briefly dipped down below 70). I bought Red Robin at 12, it's at 10.60 after hours. It was down below 7 last week but has surged 40% in the past 24 hours. I may keep Cracker Barrel long term, but with stocks fluctuating so much I think the restaraunt stocks are oversold. I will probably dump Red Robin in the next month. I am looking at cruise stocks right now, and think Carnival will not be hit as hard as the other cruise lines. It has been my experience that Carnival Cruisers are generally younger than those of the other lines (they are essentially party boats filled with younger people) and will not be hit as hard. There is a fire sale on them right now. Once I can pull a profit of RRGB (somewhere between 15 and 20 a share) I will probably bail on them and go long on Carnival. With the exception of Red Robin and Six Flags (which I pulled a 30% profit on in 24 hours) I am only buying stocks that I think will recover strongly over the next few years if they don't do well short term.

Please note that I am no stock sage, and the vast majority of my retirement/kids college funds are in mutual funds run by professionals. I am throwing around some of my IRA in individual stocks that I can afford to lose, and believe the slow and steady is the way to win in the long run.

Sold my RRGB stake for a 1% loss and bought oxy at the close. Still holding on to CBRL. At a 10% loss there but Its something I think Id like to keep.

What do you guys think. Does oil finish higher or lower on Monday?

Oil futures crashed a third overnight... A barrel of oil is now... about $11. I am 33 years old. In my entire life oil has only been cheaper than that about 6 months. Going to be an interesting day on the market. What happens when the demand for oil is so low there is no place to store it?

Good thing I bought OXY week before last at $15 a share. Going to be holding onto that one for a little while I expect.

market (resized).png

Maybe.

Right now the headline is "Oil on track for worst day ever".

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-us-oil-prices-collapse-as-storage-runs-out.html

Holy Crap. Oil futures for May delivery now down under $9 per barrel. That's a 50% day over day drop.

oil (resized).png

Oil now $2 a barrel.

$1.15 a barrel... could it go negative?

Dang it. I bet on Cracker Barrel and Red Robbin. Ruths is up 125% since I made that post. O well.

I know it's a cartoon but this short clip has really helped me understand how to play the stock market now that the fed takes a more active role in economics.

I've sold my CBRL and RRGB today and bought a 1000 shares each of STKS, BNED, BORR, VAL, PRTY, LUB, RUTH, CNTY, OXY earlier today. Almost all of these are highly distressed and selling at a deep discount right now and were down 5-15% in early trading today. Yes I know these are risky, but I have the main retirement fund in sensible mutual funds.

Fauci

Woot! Down 16% this week in my day trading account!

Prediction: Dow up 800+ points today (5/18).

They were only up 300 at the time...

Well, CBRL and RRGB are both up over 25% since I sold them last month. My other stocks are up, but only by 12%. I sold half my Luby's and Party City after they doubled in price. I bought shares of MITT (REIT) and WMC (REIT) IMCI (Foolish gamble) with those funds and money I got from selling BNED (campus bookstores will take time to recover) BORR (still have), VAL (Still have) are both down about 15%. I am holding on to STKS (up 35%), Ruth (up 1%), CNTY (up 45%) and OXY (up 3%). I am buying distressed stocks while the market is down(ish) and will switch over to sensible stocks once I feel like things are back to normal (looking at MSFT long term).

Still have kids 529s and my 401k in sensible mutual funds (which are nearing full recovery).

Best market day ever in my portfolio. Up 15% today. I think these riots are showing that the COVID stuff is winding down in weeks to months, not months to years. I'd say Dow 30 000 by the end of the summer. Now is the time to dump tech(which has been strong) and invest in the market sectors that are still down. Once the market fully recovers it will be the reverse.

As of today I am officially making money off of the Pandemic and am back to pre March levels everywhere except my 529s, which are still down but recovering. Will go back into ETFs once things settle down.

It's really hard to keep track of exactly how much up and down you are at any given time. However, since I moved to Schwab on 22 May, my portfolio is up 45.5%. I shifted things around again today and have the following breakdown in my IRA.

OXY-43.20%
CNTY-13.77%
IVR-9.31%
MITT-7.76%
AI-7.06%
NYMT-6.4%
WMC-6.38%
BORR-2.32%
PRTY-1.88%
VAL-1.53%

My focus has been on buying stocks that are at 50% or less of the pre-COVID price that seem likely to bounce back. If you look these up, I am heavy in oil, casinos, and REITs. In the past week I have bailed on RUTH, STKS, LUB, BNED and IMCI. BNED and IMCI were the only real losers there. I have officially recovered from COVID... in my IRAs at least. 529s are still down around 15% and 401k is down about 5%. However, when the markets settle tonight it should be pretty close.

And... after 2 months of little to no movement in my account, I am was up 15% on Friday and am up 20% so far today. I have one stock in the red today (CNTY), down under 1% and everything else is in the green... with the second worst stock... up 10%. I'll forgive CNTY as I'm up 60% on it. My biggest winner is VAL... I bought in at .32 the end of April and it's at 1.83 today (doubled again over the weekend). Only bought 1,000 shares but dang. MITT is running away on me. Bought in Wednesday and doubled down on REITS Thrusday. Long story short, for every dollar I had invested 22 May (my bottom) I have 1.73 today. I am going to be looking into offloading some of this and putting it in something more stable and long-term soon. To make sure everything can't go belly up at once. I'm thinking a mix of MSFT, NOW, CBRL, or a decent mutual fund. I may unload CNTY for some more speculative stock soon.

Today was my best market day ever... up 31% today. I don't know how much longer this will last but I'm not complaining. I ended up bailing on CNTY and PRTY today to trade for AHOTF and MFA. Excluding the stuff I jumped on after opening, every stock I own was up 12%+ today, with VAL, BORR, and MITT all being up over 120% each. I will probably bail on the REITs sometime in the next few weeks as this cannot last. For every $1 I had in my IRAs on 22 May, I now have $1.91.

The portfolio spread as of today is:

OXY:39.45%
MITT:12.24%
IVR: 11.24%
AI: 5.87%
WMC: 5.84%
MFA: 5.50%
NYMT: 5.48%
AHOTF: 4.36%
BORR: 4.25%
VAL: 3.54%
Cash: 2.25%
Total: 100%

And... the best 2 days ever is followed by the worst day ever. 12% in the red. Still way up. Let's go green tomorrow!

* Worst day ever for my personal day trading fund.

Bought NOW and MAC after selling my oil stocks. I deal with NOW IN the government sector and they look like a good long term stable play. Sold OXY BORR and VAL. Oil is going to stall for a while again me thinks. Up 40+% to 200% on the OIL stuff so today's downturn is no biggie. In at 10.67 on MAC.

* Worst day ever so far. Down 15% today but still Covid up. In non speculative stock I like NOW and TEAM.

Corona special. Buy one week get 2 free!

Up 7.75% today.

Just went out today in Maryland. Home Depot was as busy as I have ever seen it. I couldn't get in the Amish Market as the line to get in was over an hour long. 5 below was mobbed. I passed 2 garage sales and an Estate Sale in my neighborhood this morning on my walk. I had to wait 5 minutes to check out at Petco. 100% were wearing masks. Maryland just opened retaraunts and non essential businesses to 50% yesterday. The only sign business was bad was the closed health club and theater I passed which should open next week. Government workers and contractors here almost all working and working remote. I live in the most liberal part of the country just outside the state and national capital. I am 100% behind the nation is opening back up and opening up soon. I'm keeping my play money in REITs and other it is opening up soon bets. The local arcade is even opening next week. I am seeing the pent up demand. Economy is absolutely exploding between now and July 4th. No brakes on this train.

Hertz trading halted by judge. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/hertz-stock-amid-controversy-around-stock-sale.html

Yeppers,

Just wish I bought my MAC at 8 something instead of 10.67. It just needs a little time.

Refinance today. If you are at 3.875 you could drop a point to 2.75 on a 30 or 2.5 to drop it to a 15.

Guys, go to bankrate.com and check mortgage rates at 0800, 1000, and 1200 EST tomorrow. Go with the lowest lender. I checked today when we were talking at work. It was 2.125 for a 10, 2.25 for a 15, and 2.625 for a 30. You don't have to put in any private info and just call whoever the lowest rate is. Today it was sebonic. This is how I got my 2.625 15 year... back in 2016.

Here is what I'm getting this morning.

Rates (resized).png

Of note, rates change multiple times throughout the day. If you are looking, check several times during banking hours. A 15 year fixed jumped up 1/2 a point as far as what was available for me in the past 5 hours.

rates2 (resized).png

Whelp... my dumbass just jumped in on Teslas at 342.66. Don't think I'll stay in long but this looks like an opportunity to me. With all that said this is the guy who bought MAC at 10.50 and sold at 7.50 so take it for what it's worth. Bailed on most of my other REITs too.

I am preaching to the choir here but...

Rule of 72 states that your money will double in value in roughly 72 divided by the interest rate years. At a 7% return, this would imply money doubling every 10 years and at 10% this would imply money doubling every 7 years.

Past performance is no guarantee of future success but you can look at the historical performance of any mutual fund out there over a 1,5,10 year period... whatever.

In theory, all you would have to do is selevt mutual funds that hit 10% average interest over the past 10 years and you would double your money every 7 years in accordance with Buffets ideals. Easy right?

The problem is, the higher the return (on average) the higher the risk and the bigger the swings.

I personally believe index funds and mutual funds are a safer play that individual stocks as there is instant diversification (of a sort) in every fund.

I believe that a mix of mutual funds/index funds and individual stocks is the way to go. I love picking stocks (it's fun) and have had much bigger swings in my stock market account than in my mutual funds. Looking back, my mutual funds have doubled in value at between 5 and 7 years (markets been nuts) in my adult lifetime. I am doing much better in my mutual funds than in my individual stocks over time. As such, I personally keep my 401k money in mutual funds, while keeping my IRA money in stocks. This forces about an 80% mutual fund 20% stock fund split at any given time. If I lose my butt on stocks it sucks, but it's not going to keep me working forever.

However, I think we can all agree that 1 investment appreciates more than any other in this day and age, and that is a solid portfolio of 5+ year old pinball machines that we can play and then sell at cost at worst. I recommend diversification between as many manufacturers as possible (not you Hopepin).

Pinball... that's why we're here... pinball.

ETFs > Mutual funds, can be traded faster than mutual funds, and are all around better investments. However, many of us working schmucks are forced into mutual funds through employer sponsored 401ks that don't offer other investment options.

Looks like I actually called one right for once! Closed at 419.62 today! I figure the stock is going to rise this week in anticipation of battery day next Tuesday. I am in for the short term and am going to sell this week no matter what. I will sell at $514 (a 50% gain), or whenever it feels right on Friday... whichever comes first.

Also bailed on NAK (small holdings). Looking hard at OXY. Might jump in if it drops below $10.

It depends on what kind of account you have it in. This particular set of money is in a tax advantaged account called an IRA. The idea is that this is special money I have set aside for retirement. I can put pre tax money into my IRA, and any stock there grows without paying taxes until it is time for me to withdraw it. I could buy and sell 50 times per day, it makes no issue. However, when it is time for me to sell I pay taxes on the gains my stocks have made and I can't withdraw it until 59.5 without paying an extra heavy penalty. There is a similar IRA that works in a similar fashion called a ROTH IRA where I put in after tax dollars and the funds grow tax free until time to withdraw and I pay no tax at that time. I am limited to $5500 in contributions per anum to a ROTH IRA without fancy accounting tricks.

If I don't have it in a retirement account I would pay capital gains tax on the profits when selling, but could also write off the losses. Most people do not do this.

As it is, I am investing retirement dollars and will not be paying any taxes on any of the gains for 30+ years.

Just bought into Oxy at $10.83 I was hoping to grab it under $10 but missed it. Don't see much downside at this price but won't keep it forever. Still going to sell TSLA this week.

Congrats! Loaded up (relatively) at $342 a week ago.

What's your "I'm bailing" price on TSLA right now. I'm planning on dumping at $514 or on Friday, whichever comes first. I think there will be a run up to battery day next week, and then a sharp sell off. Thoughts?

Bailing on TESLA today. In at 342 last week so winning no matter what... Trying to guess what the high for the day will be. Figure it will likely go up Monday and part of the day Tuesday, then crash again.

Screw it... just bailed on Tesla at 443. I'll take a $100 a share profit in two weeks anytime!

Trying to resist the urge to buy things in the interim. May sell some other stuff to. Looking hard at AAPL if it drops under $100.

RGB just died. RIP. This makes a Trump reelection more likely. Betting odds will reflect this Monday. Markets like Trump. I say a 500 point rise in the Dow Monday.

Monday market prediction has proven... fasle. I sold all my TSLA and held cash Friday. I'm going to sell everything else (in day trading fund) today at the market open. I'm up so no biggie. I am eying 2 major investment opportunities.

1. I predict TSLA will spike then crash this week. I think Tuesday by the close it may see 500, but by the end of the week it is likely to be back closer to or even under 400. If it hits 360 again I will back up the truck.

2. I may jump on the APPL train if it drops below 100.

Looking to time the market (big mistake I know) and see what is on sale.

With RGB down this week politics will be volatile. I think things will settle down a bit on Wednesday next week (the 30th) assuming the debate happens on the 29th.

See post above where I eat my words.

Don't forget about your tax advantaged accounts.

You can put $6,000 in a ROTH or traditional IRA every year. If you put your money into a ROTH account, you use "after tax dollars". From here on out that money grows tax free. So if you drop your money into a ROTH IRA, you can buy/sell/trade all you want with no tax implications so long as it stays in the account. You can start at $6,000, and make $500,000 per year in the market listening to ICEMAN. You can't withdraw the money until you reach retirement age, but when you withdraw the money you do not pay income tax and you do not pay capital gains.

Were you to have your money in a non-tax advantaged account, yes, much of what you say is true.

Yes. You can open an IRA with most banking institutions or through someplace like Schwab or Vangard. You buy individual stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and I think you can buy bonds and a few other financial instruments if that is your thing. The general recommended investment strategy is as follows:

1. Contribute to 401k options up to the match (if you have one).
2. Max out an IRA (ROTH recommended).
3. Max out remainder of 401k up to the max.
4. Consult a financial expert for other tax differed recommendations.

I am also a big fan of the following flowchart that I am sure will open a huge can of worms here.

https://i.imgur.com/lSoUQr2.png

lSoUQr2 (resized).jpg

Well, after buying Tesla 2 weeks ago at 340 and selling at 440 last week, I'm going to dip my toes back in. Here are the buys I'm scoping.

Progressively larger TSLA pickups at 400 (executed), 390 (executed) , 380 (soon!), 370, 360, 350, 340. I expect TSLA to bottom out at about 360 and turn upwards, but don't want to miss it.

OXY pickup if it drops under 10.

AAPL pickup if it drops under 100.

Purely speculative plays and for the record have the vast majority of my holdings in sensible mutual funds I don't mess with.

Bet big on MAC at $11. Sold at $7.50. You win some and you lose some. Made it back elsewhere. It does look cheap now but look back through history on this thread at how long MAC has looked like a good buy. Still may dip my toe back in.

With that said... I don't do this for a living like some others. Waiting for OXY to dip under $10.

Sigh... bought into OXY again at 10.23.

I think this is going to be a volitile week coming up. News on countries shutting back down and the debate Tuesday giving people a better idea of who will win in the U.S. election.

Yes! Bought in at 19.99 yesterday. Rates are low. I haven't refinanced but have been quoted under 2% APR elsewhere. See lots of refinancing in the next 6 months.

Non political statement. The president just tested positive for COVID-19. Me thinks stocks relying on an early reopening are going to have a bad day today. What stocks do you think will be on sale or we be on sale today. I heard that after the JFK assassination it took 2 days for the market to recover so this may be but a brief setback for the market.

Just bought AAPL and AMZN. Longer shutdown looks good for them to me.

Dumped OXY and jumped on the PINS train for a while at 45.

I jumped in for a little bit for about a 5% gain then bailed. Look at thr slope on the long term chart. If you think oil will rise soon its a good bet. If not stay away. With that said I may jump back in short term, but dont think it's a good long term buy.

Seconded. Will bail by 60. Go go go!

Awaiting pins and fsly earnings tonight. Will likely dump tomorrow and hold cash until election week. Up 10% on Pins and fastly the last few weeks(in at 45). Down on fsly at 75 entry. Fingers crossed.