(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

3 years ago

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    #39 3 years ago

    Invested in mutual funds via 401K years ago, and have built a nice portfolio. Currently with Fidelity, and while my choices are somewhat limited, I watch them.

    My trigger right now is the AMT.What a crock of shit. I remember learning about during tax classes, but to actually see it in action is real bitch. The max of $18K a year is also a scam. I can't believe this is how our tax laws are structured.

    Anyone else know anything on how to lessen it besides quitting my job? I pay a shitload in property taxes in WI and it gets me nothing.

    #45 3 years ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    Set an equity to bond ratio based upon your age and comfort level, invest in mutual funds that meet that ratio, and then set it and forget it.
    Investing is only complicated if you make it so.
    Never triy to time the markets, just leave your investments the way they are based upon the ratio that you set.

    An old trader once told me, "When the market dips, that means things are on sale".

    He used to time the market and then realized his gains after tax and short term capital gains, wasn't very good. However, like Whysnow, everything I have is in Fidelity as well and there isn't too much that we can do. When you say set a equity to bond ration, I assume you mean stocks to cash or equivalent cash securities without any risk correct?

    1 month later
    #338 3 years ago

    I have some money that has to sit for 2-3 months. Hate to not have it grow at all. What would be the best option at this point? Would like to make a little....

    4 weeks later
    #377 3 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    That's why Led Zep and the Stones became tax exiles.
    It does discourage *me* from working extra hard or overtime because my later dollars are not worth as much.

    At least they were not hypocrites like U2 is.

    #378 3 years ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    Yet, people on welfare don't need to work for their benefits. I say that in order to collect benefits, one must be neutered or spayed.
    Then when you're off welfare and you want kids, you can pay to get it reversed.

    Too bad the constitution gets in the way.

    1 week later
    #400 3 years ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    My retirement:
    Whole life policy
    Profit sharing plan
    House paid off
    Rental condo paid off
    Proceeds from sale of my business
    That's my current situation. Real estate isn't paid off yet, but will be before I retire.
    What I would like to add:
    2 more rental condos
    Start 2 more businesses
    As I near retirement, my portfolio will shift to produce more income
    I'm single now, but if I ever get married, I'm marrying someone with a good career. I saw first hand what marrying a leech does...that will never happen to me.

    You'll be dead before you spend all of that equity.

    11 months later
    #760 2 years ago

    I am so tempted to move some of my money in index funds to a safe harbor until the bleeding ends. Is anybody else doing this or just holding on to the wheel tight?

    #765 2 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Hold tight or buy more is the correct answer.
    Did you not see the article I posted a few days ago said the average investor only makes around half of what the market actually returns? It’s because they try to time the market and wind up selling low and buying high.

    I did read it and the other articles. However, it's a thinking/feeling disconnect that I have. I don't like to fly even though I realize it's far safer as a mode of transportation than driving. It's difficult when you lose the equivalent of your salary within a few days.

    2 years later
    #1523 4 months ago

    I held off buying...damn.

    #1551 4 months ago
    Quoted from DBLM:

    This is a trading market. You need to be very nimble on what is going on. Apple at 260 was a gift. If you are buying now, trailing stops are your friend.

    Picked up some at 289. Wish I had picked up some more.

    #1552 4 months ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    I am a bit resistant to throw everything in near the top. Maybe not the best idea, but I'm risk adverse.

    Then just stay in low risk securities. Why keep yourself up at night?

    #1582 4 months ago
    Quoted from Xenon75:

    Time in the market is key. I bought a public utility stock in 1979, set the dividends to reinvest and basically forgot about it. It has gone from $5.00 in 1979 to 68.98 as of 5 mins ago... the power of time and compounding as each quarter the dividends buy new shares.

    Curious, what is your annual rate of return after 40+ years?

    #1716 4 months ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    That is my complaint...news isn't being reported. Conjecture is being reported.
    I wish the news media would stick with the facts. Stick with ways to protect yourself. The chances of anyone getting the coronavirus are extremely low, but listening to the news media, one would never know that.

    This is what the media has done for decades. If not to sell papers, it's to wield their political sword, whichever way they choose. Somewhere along the line someone suggested that journalist strives to report facts without bias for judgement. That's a myth - always has been, always will be. They're f$%^n parasites.

    #1766 4 months ago
    Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

    Boeing is probably overpriced at $200 at this point in time

    It's going to take Boeing a long time to rebound.

    #1783 4 months ago
    Quoted from Wickerman2:

    Because when you are out on unpaid sick leave with the virus, you don't want too many taxes on your payroll that you aren't earning. Should provide a Yuuuuuge boost to the economy.

    Payroll taxes are only calculated on earnings, not unearned income due to non paid leave.

    #1787 4 months ago
    Quoted from Wickerman2:

    It was sarcasm. Sorry forgot the:

    Ah, got it.

    #1807 4 months ago
    Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

    If fracking stops maybe there’s a silver lining after all.

    I'm sure the 1.7 million people who are employed due to fracking don't share your opinion.

    #1820 4 months ago
    Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

    The other 300M in the country seeing the destruction of natural resources and the environment don’t agree. I don’t think short term jobs outweigh the future of the land and people that want to live on it. There’s a lot of options in this world to make money. Figure it out.

    It's obvious from your posts you can't take it when someone has a different opinion than your own. "Figure it out", "start paying attention", "Deal with It!", and that's just on this page.

    Relax dude. It's obvious this whole thing is bothering you, I get it. Hope you get it all under control.

    #1827 3 months ago
    Quoted from Jimmyhonda:

    I feel for the folks that were looking to retire right now and their 401k’s have been hammered. Hopefully they can hang in there until this market bounces back. We all know it will. The question is when.

    If they were close to retirement, hopefully their portfolio was balanced correctly.

    #1906 3 months ago
    Quoted from cait001:

    Saw this comparison[quoted image]

    What do you think that means?

    #1916 3 months ago

    A recession is going to come. Too much value has been lost around the world, and now panic is escalating. Rates have nowhere to going, there is political turmoil everywhere... well, now all the hipsters can see what a real recession is like.

    #1919 3 months ago
    Quoted from Richthofen:

    The recession was going to happen anyways. You can't shut down major industries and put millions of people out of work, even temporarily, and not see a recession. Regardless of the value of equities, real economic activity (the thing equities used to be a proxy for, before the central banks decided to inflate everything forever) is going to crater. Most of us here on pinside are probably working professionals. Imagine all the people juggling part time jobs while their childcare and kids food mostly comes from public schools. Now the schools are closed and people have to choose between caring for their kids or going to work, if they're lucky enough to even still have a job. And then probably 10% of people are going to have medical bills.

    Very true. It's only a matter of time until cash flows run out and bankruptcies will skyrocket as companies won't be able to cover their debt obligations. Then, it will only get worse.

    #1952 3 months ago
    Quoted from jackd104:

    Worry not. It will come back. In 2-3 years.

    I hope it's sooner than that.

    #1963 3 months ago
    Quoted from rai:

    In all fairness to you, but does it matter? Because if it takes a long-ish time then you get the benefit of being able to buy more shares at a discount. Say you were investing $4K a month, I'd rather get to invest at cheaper prices than if it jumped right back and then all the stocks have a high PE you can buy more shares over this time that stocks will be recovering.
    my 2c.
    My point unless you are retired they you are likely adding to your holdings over time and it's better to have be buying at lower PEs than higher PEs as shove be evident that you will make more on shares you bought when they are cheaper.

    Well, not if you factor in the time value of $. Yes, I'll reap the gains of new cash inflows, but it won't be enough to make up for the loss in % I could have earned had it been in stable slow growing appreciable.

    #2060 3 months ago
    Quoted from Deaconblooze:

    Alright, so we're contributing to our kid's tax exempt college accounts. I think that's still a reasonable place to put our money, we're 34 with kids at 6 and 3(2). The plan is to put 6k total towards all 3 kids over the next 3 weeks (has to be in by tax time). I figure as much of an averaging as possible over that time would be of benefit, so we're going to put money in 2x per week. The options are limited, but currently I'm planning to put the money into a "aggressive index" plan, hoping to catch the bulk of the growth on rebound.
    Anything glaringly bad about that plan?

    With how young your kids are, I think it makes sense. Plus you can deduct the contribution on your state tax liability.

    #2061 3 months ago

    I wouldn't buy into Boeing. They have problems aside from Corona 19.

    #2065 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Taxes were cut. All kinds of regulations were reversed. It did not take a genius to make those things happen. Everything for the last three years has been measured on how well the market was moving and always going up. It was jobs and the markets. It was all easy answers. Everything was great.
    And now, in one fell swoop, the markets are not doing so hot. Jobs are going to disappear. And now, there are no easy answers. And the market participants don't trust any of easy answers that have been getting floated around.
    At first, the virus did not exist. And then when it existed it was not going to be bad. And now that it is bad, it is too late for any chance at controlling it.

    That isn't how I first interpreted his comments, but honestly, not interested in a debate. Stay safe everyone.

    #2135 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Boeing is down another $18.00 to $110.00.

    Can Boeing survive the Max and COVID 19?

    #2140 3 months ago
    Quoted from JodyG:

    The government won't let Boeing fail. They are too engrained in our military and they have too many secrets at the end of the day.

    That is probably true, but Airbus seems to be picking up a lot of contracts lately. Boeing's culture is it's problem, and that takes years to change.

    #2146 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    I worked for Boeing back in the 80s. In '86 I was promoted to shop supervisor ( team lead was not around then). Airbus was just getting started and its first customer was Pan Am (later went bankrupt) that bought 3 Airbus airliners. Just 3. But it was a toe hold for Airbus to supply a slowly going broke company. The other airline companies now had a chance to see Airbus in action. By now, everybody knows the history. Airbus is serious completion. But at the point in time is was no so readily apparent; To some.
    I had to go to a "new supervisor" training meeting. There was some upper mid-level manager running the meeting. Someone asked him about Airbus and Pan Am. etc. This mid-level idiot proceeded to laugh at the questioner and say that Airbus was no threat to the mighty Boeing; Something to that effect. The point is that Airbus sneaked in and Boeing management was asleep at the switch. Boeing is used to pushing its weight around in the aircraft market place for parts and everything else. The hubris of management finally caught up with it.
    And while Boeing goes to the government with hat in hand, the ousted CEO walked away with a 40 million dollar pay package. And the taxpayers are going to be called on. Stinks.

    The WSJ has had a few articles on the issues with Boeing lately. Who knows what is true and what isn't, but it's almarming even if a portion of it is.

    I listened to the President's press conference today. Delayed tax payments, money to every American, big stimulus bill coming, this county is going to go bankrupt if some common sense doesn't kick in.

    #2148 3 months ago
    Quoted from boscokid:

    There is no limit to the number of IOUs they will write with our kids names on them

    It's sad. Trump is just pushing this mass spending to prop up his polls and increase his chance of re-election. And you're right, we'll be long gone but our kids and their kids will suffer because of these short sighted decisions. I guess if you don't have kids, you might not care as much, but for those of us that do, it's depressing.

    #2156 3 months ago
    Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

    Politics aside - and not stating an opinion on what he is doing .....
    He is in a no-win situation with people that do not like him. There is nothing he can do to make his haters happy.
    If he was not pushing the spending, they would be saying "people and businesses are hurting and he is not doing enough"

    They will say it anyway.

    #2198 3 months ago

    Well, I finally bit the bullet and cashed out a third of my portfolio. There is nothing that shows that this is going to slow. Sucks - but I least i'm diversified in my loss.

    #2230 3 months ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    Under 19k now

    Down to 10k by end of the week?

    #2272 3 months ago
    Quoted from DBLM:

    It’s funny, I’m 42 and have a lucrative career. It used to be my ambition to retire in my mid fifty’s with a sum that would allow me to never work again. As I get older, I don’t think that is my plan anymore. 2 years ago I bought my dream house, which was incredibly expensive but a tremendous investment opportunity as it was significantly under valued. I have to pay this off, but I think I should be able to in the next 15 years or so while maintaining my current lifestyle. This is a long way around the horn to say that not only do I need to work for a while, but that I want to work longer. I enjoy what I do and take great pride in my work. My technical counterpart that I worked with for the past 4 years just retired at the age of 76. He has several millions of assets so has not needed to work for a while. However, he loved meeting with clients with me and said that work kept him young. I am meeting more and more people that are telling me similar things. I guess I will see how things play out as I get older but my thoughts on this have really started evolving over the last 6 months or so. Is anybody else having similar thoughts about wanting to work longer?

    My situation is very similar to yours, even with the larger house that was under-valued. I think back a few years to a co-worker who just could not wait to retire. He was really skilled with picking investments and monitored them daily. He finally retired.

    3 months after he left, he was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and was dead within 6 months. Made me reprioritize my life a bit. I really wanted to get out in my mid 50's, but with this now, who knows what will happen. I'm thankful for being alive and semi enjoying my job, we'll see where things go from here. But as soon as I can comfortable leave the workforce, I'm going to do it.

    #2291 3 months ago
    Quoted from usandthem:

    As a gen x’er, this is the third big market disaster to take place during my working career (dot com bust, Great Recession, and whatever we end up calling this). I’ve made plenty of mistakes along the way. I just thought about the fact that this is the first meltdown to impact the Millennials. They must’ve thought that the market was easy money looking at their 401Ks over the last 10 years. I wonder if they’ll stick it out or panic like many of us have done in the past.

    I'm also a gen x'er. I can remember the recession of 83 a little bit as my parents were in it, so take the other three and that's 4 we've have experience on. Some co-workers and I were discussing how the younger Millennials and the Zoomers, this is going to be eye opening. It's been 10 years since the employment is going to go where it is. Will be a shock for some for sure.

    #2292 3 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    I’m losing track of the number of coworkers I’ve had that have died in their 40s-60s. Literally worked until they died. About a month ago our CEO had a headache and went to the doctor. He was told he has aggressive brain cancer and won’t live a year. I don’t want that to be me.

    Here is the thing. That could be you and I, and chances are it will be at least one of us. My son's company's CEO also just died, a very young and well respected man. Same thing, aggressive cancer.

    Quoted from DBLM:

    This is why you have to live now because we have no idea what the future holds. I hear a lot about the FIRE movement but frankly, it does not provide for the lifestyle that I want for myself and my family. My wife and I bought this house and a boat several years beforehand because we decided we wanted to enjoy some of the fruits of our labors while we are young. Does this mean we have to keep working? Sure. But we both like what we are doing and get to live our life now as opposed to waiting for retirement. And if I was to stroke out tomorrow, at least I got to enjoy it while I could and my wife and daughter would be taken care of.

    That is our line of thinking as well. We upgraded our house a few years ago with some land. Sure, if we stayed were we where, we wouldn't have a mortgage right now, but we wanted to enjoy life a bit and always wanted some land to stretch our legs on. Plus the serenity of a very rural area is priceless.

    Come to think of it, we've lost more $ in the last 2 weeks than our first two homes cost combined. LOL!

    #2379 3 months ago
    Quoted from DBLM:

    Technically not illegal but it is bullshit. All of the senators involved from both sides should go!

    If it was illegal, they should be prosecuted.

    #2431 3 months ago

    Is it possible for the entire World Economy as we know it to fall apart?

    It's possible. Then all that matters is gold and raw materials.

    #2516 3 months ago

    It's still sinking....761 down.

    #2518 3 months ago

    This has no signs of slowing down, the world is shutting down, and depending on how the election goes, we could see a major depression for years to come with slow growth polices The Fed is powerless at this point, inflation is staring us in the face with all this $ being pumped in, and the national debt is going up faster than a test missile fired from NK. Any signs of hope are far and few between.

    #2617 3 months ago
    Quoted from cait001:

    While not as outrageous as Bezos begging for humanitarian donations for his poverty-wage employees, my favourite brazen request for government money has to be from Hobby Lobby. (The company that was bizarrely found trafficking in ancient Iraq artifacts)

    Where is your source?

    #2660 3 months ago
    Quoted from swampfire:

    Nope. The feds are helping people and companies. And it’s not a “bailout” if it’s something that these companies are (a) doing because it’s necessary to prevent disaster and (b) not their fault. 2009, now THAT was a bailout.

    Agreed. The collapse of 2009 was mainly due to bad loans, shaky securities, and just ill conceived borrowing and the like. 2020 is a bit different in that things were mostly strong.

    My concern is still the size of the debt and what will happen to future generations, but nobody seems to give a shit about it.

    #2667 3 months ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    This is what bugs me, corps get tons of money, poor get a little money, in the middle? Well you are out of luck so sorry so sad, you should have saved some money because you make more than minimum wage. How about we reverse this line of thinking everyone gets $1200 including executives, and then we see who the real geniuses are.

    And what would happen if nothing was given to the businesses? Debt obligations come calling, the banks and notes are foreclosed on, bankruptcies are next, those who have their retirements invested lose it all, and the workers are out of a job.

    Not saying all the pork grab is warranted or legit of course, but it's important to view the whole thing holistically.

    #2680 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    It is chicken and egg. People need money to live. If this govt. thing works. you get the money, and mortgage relief in that you cannot be kicked to the curb, etc. But I don't know how far $1200.00 will last for a single person living in New York or L.A.
    But you also need the business to stay alive any way possible so you can get back to work. If does not one no good to get gift. help if their job/company go tits up.
    Bottom line. A lot of people/ companies are going to get some money they don't need. But trying to be fair will be difficult. But the big Corporations will have to jump thru some accountability hoops so the money does not just fly away.

    With one week to create a 2 trillion dollar package? None of us can fully realize, despite our experience or education or confidence levels, how much 2 trillion dollars is. Future generations will be paying for this for decades. The standard of living will be reduced as time goes on because of this.

    It's a high price.

    #2724 3 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    The fed has indicated they are willing to have "Unlimited" stimulus to do what they can.
    Something stinks about all of this right now. Then they want to rush the opening up of everything in a couple of weeks? Risk making matters worse rather than let the storm pass?
    If this backfires, and chances are it will, then things can get uglier.. even faster than we saw a couple weeks ago. People have such short memories. They see green days in the stock market and all is well again... When it goes down they see blood. Amazing how the stock market can change a persons sentiment almost immediately. People seeing this rally over the last few days may even think the virus is going away now..

    What is happening is emotions and hysteria are leading to knee jerk reactions in both parties. This stimulus is a train wreck and will hurt our country for decades to come. And the "unlimited" stimulus is easy to throw around when it isn't your money. Both parties want votes and power, and will spend our children's children's children (Moody Blues reference) for the votes.

    #2766 3 months ago
    Quoted from Happy81724:

    That probably is true especially when they say 80% has mild or no symptoms. If the death rate increases drastically then folks will pay attention.
    I still cant believe how many people are out and about here in Michigan. I thought it would be a ghost town when I went to get milk.
    I do think the stock market will drop tomorrow for various reasons including the increased cases

    It's starting to become more accepted that the number of "infected" is much larger than previously thought (i.e. NBA testing as a statical example), but that the vast majority never even know. Where are the infected children?

    If it is a mortality rate of .05%, things will pick up very quick.

    #2768 3 months ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    You know, I've heard a couple other people throw out stuff like that. It's horse****. While the number of infected is clearly significantly higher than the number tested positive in the US, there's almost no possible way it's anywhere close to .05%. The cruise ship had 8 people die on it out of 700...everyone was tested on that ship. If it was .05%, not even 1 person should have died. And then you have that retirement home in Washington where a ton of residents passed away and I think there was only 80 of them.
    Two clear examples where everyone was tested and the mortality rate was above 1%.
    If the mortality rate was really that low, why would it be flooding the New York hospitals now?
    South Korea tested the crap out of everyone. They're around .6% mortality rate. I think that is probably about where it's at on a normal population, the cruise ship was older but not nearly as old as you might think. BUT....that's only if the hospitals don't get overran.

    The Senior Center in WA only substantiates the lower mortality rate, they were dying already and just happened to have C19. You're right on the Cruise Ship, that is a little more suspect because of the lower sample size. For NY, it must mean that a majority of the City is infected already. We won't know for a bit, but it could be that the mortality rate is much lower, and that is due to the large number of people who are infected, but hasn't been recorded yet because the lack or targeting of testing. We just don't know yet.

    #2800 3 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    Go do some reading on the boglehead forums. These guys will keep you on your long term strategy and talk you out of making mistakes you'll regret.

    I haven't been over there in years, but just did a quick walk though.


    Their C19 thread makes ours look like a playground.


    #2805 3 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    I skimmed a couple pages of it and they seem a bit more civil
    I don't go there often, don't even have an account there, but they're a calming influence during market turmoils. Lots of folks with multi-million dollar retirement accounts post there.

    You can tell the level of sophistication is a bit..."different". I almost want to take advantage of a "portfolio review request", but I'm a bit apprehensive on the feedback.

    #2807 3 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    I think their standard answer is your entire portfolio should be in some combination of total stock market, total bond market, and total international market. For most people (myself included), that's probably the best bet, but it sure is boring.

    Agreed. I have a rough understanding of Boglehead philosophy, and it's probably the most logical way but you're right, it isn't much fun.

    #2918 3 months ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    ...not sure why this was moderated. He's talking about 2 very accepted terms for the growth spurts and not blaming anyone.

    He probably mentioned an unmentionable word.

    #2953 3 months ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    If the loser liberals don't harass me, I'll post.
    They harass, I'm out of here.

    All the noise should be in the other thread. Hope you stick around.

    #3070 3 months ago

    It depends on what type of an employee/job description with regards to working at home. Personally, I hate it and would never do it, nor do I like employees to do it. If I had a sales team, that might be different and probably would want them to work from home, but their results can be measured easily.

    If it was a service type industry or project management, for all I know they could just be on Pinside all day.

    #3073 3 months ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    It definitely isn't for everyone. Some people need the socialization. Some people have too many distractions, etc. For some, work at home means no daycare, so they are dealing with their kids all day. Took awhile to train my wife that I was not her errand boy during the day.

    If they are dealing with their kids all day, how can they be productive?

    I could never do it personally for various reasons. However, I have found the productivity for the general employee decreases exponentially when they work from home. Again - these are not sales or project manager positions. Plus it seems that the level of education also is an indicator for success.

    #3219 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    I'm thinking some sideways action for a little while. It will be interesting to see if Prez pushes the April 30 date farther out.

    That is still three weeks away, and the dailies coming out of Europe are encouraging, although if the world acts like China has, the 2nd wave will hit hard. But by then, the pressure on the hospitals should lessen.

    #3274 3 months ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    Alcohol induced vitriol. He's like a chocoholic, but with alcohol. Nothing to see here...

    I disagree. Just because he doesn't have a snowflake mentality doesn't make it cruel in nature. He's just a bit more positive and it's always fun to read.

    #3279 3 months ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    Sure if needlessly insulting those you disagree with every other post is 'positive and fun to read' for you...

    If you're too sensitive, just put him on ignore.

    #3294 3 months ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    Nope, I'll just continue to call him on his bs. Oh that's right, he put me on ignore. Can't handle truth. Or maybe he's just too sensitive.
    On topic, I believe this tweet that went out today is the reason for the push over 23k a few hours ago. Strange. Feels like manipulation more than positivity.
    "Once we OPEN UP OUR GREAT COUNTRY, and it will be sooner rather than later, the horror of the Invisible Enemy, except for those that sadly lost a family member or friend, must be quickly forgotten. Our Economy will BOOM, perhaps like never before!!!"
    Posted in #twitter-stream | Today at 10:02 AM
    And I'm simply pointing out a possible reason for the uptick. Something I'm always trying to follow and understand the reasons for the movements of the market.

    Maybe because Sanders ceased his campaign?

    #3295 3 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Thank you Methos, POSITIVITY is a great thing brother!!
    No vitriol intended, just poking a little a fun at KPG and he can take it like he dishes it out. People need to lighten it up man! There is enough doom and gloom out there.

    It is interesting how character traits manifests when a crisis hits. Some will remain positive and "carry on", others will coward and recluse, and others will get angry and defensive. Sometimes we ourselves don't know how we're going to act...

    I enjoy KPG's posts (very informative) and your own. Debate and discussion is good and healthy. If others can't handle it, put em' on ignore or move to a "safe zone" thread.

    #3300 3 months ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    I was trying to be open minded as I don't truly know, but yes, I agree, I didn't think he was still relevant in the race.

    True, but probably ends an chance (or reduced it) of a hostile nomination/convention.

    #3308 3 months ago

    It's all about the access to capital when things reopen. That is what will indicate the speed of the recovery. Not access to labor or markets or industrcture etc, ....but capital.

    #3348 3 months ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    In the end it will come from Generations Y, Z, and beyond.

    And their kids. No one cares any more. Keep those pressers running.

    #3399 89 days ago
    Quoted from Richthofen:

    It’s still so early in the ballgame. But even so, 10,000 dead Americans and 16 million having filed for unemployment over the last four weeks is BAD.

    Many people were saying it was going to be 1.3-2 million Americans. Even the Feds said 230,000 dead in months.

    #3449 86 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:Roku up big after hours on prelim numbers
    TTD following
    20 day and 50 day moving averages all that is relevant Right now
    Market held support at 2730 closing at 2735, on the way to 2650 if that level doesn’t hold and then a possibility to fill the gap down to 2450
    Great businesses with excellent balance sheets and little to no net debt win
    Liquidity is awash all over the marketplace
    If current levels hold shorts are gonna experience another round of short term pain!

    Lots of talk about lifting the stay at home bans. If that gets some lift, we could see an uptick.

    #3454 85 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Scaled into some airliner stocks today. Seems they are the laggards over this rally to be honest, and haven't realized their bounce like the rest of the other beaten down sectors.
    Of course, for justifiable reasons. Airline business has been significantly impacted so people are fearful to invest in them, and rightfully so.
    Warren Buffet even sold most of his Airliners... In fact, it may be an example of him selling on fear vs his trademark "buy when fearful, sell when greedy" standpoint.

    Apparently United has sent a few hundred plans to the desert to die with no plans to bring them back. This could be an early retirement or just offloading assets no longer needed to save on M&U. My guess is that the airlines don't expect to get back to "normal" for a year or two.

    #3464 85 days ago
    Quoted from Atari_Daze:

    Maybe take the write down now while the government is "promising" some AMAZING and BEAUTIFUL help, they say show hey look, we had to mothball all these aircraft DURING the crisis...?

    It was to alleviate a softer demand for the long term.

    #3468 85 days ago

    Movie theaters are going the way of the horse and carriage.

    #3480 85 days ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    One of the nice things about where I live, none of those things is usually an issue. There's something about going to the theater that is still better than watching it at home - even on large tv's - but I'm picky about what I'll go drop that kind of money on, and most just aren't worth it.

    I just went to see the TCM King Kong movie in theaters. It was a different experience, especially seeing a very small format (4x3?) projected on a large screen.

    Sadly, there were 10 people in the audience. Nobody cares anymore, it's a dying business.

    #3559 83 days ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    Is part of the 'positive' sentiment in the market because stockholders tend to like layoffs? I've always found this whole thing counterproductive because in almost all cases if you're cutting workers, you aren't doing very well, but yet stockholders love it.

    Well, the labor market was so saturated, that I wouldn't be surprised if a bit of higher unemployment wouldn't be seen as a positive move.

    #3679 79 days ago
    Quoted from RA77:

    Devastated here Looks like we may have lost one of our great air carriers = less competition = higher prices.
    Really sad because they were great to fly with.
    Appears shareholders lost everything.
    Are you guys expecting any of your air carriers to fall over ?
    [quoted image]

    I would guess the larger ones will survive, but the budgets are probably done. Frontier, Spirit, Sun Country, etc.

    #3780 76 days ago

    Bankruptcy, if it has to bail out the states.

    #3829 72 days ago
    Quoted from swampfire:

    There are rumors that they may not reopen the parks until 2021.

    This isn't true. They are already talking of plans to open. That rumor is from some analyst that popped off.

    #3855 70 days ago
    Quoted from taz:

    I know, it's crazy! As I type this Boeing is up about 6% after announcing that they'd burned through $4.3B in cash last quarter and their flawed commercial airliner recertification has been pushed back to late Summer. Airlines are cancelling orders, Boeing's cutting staff, and their primary airliner's future just slid further into regulatory purgatory, meanwhile in upside down world their stock climbs in value.
    Disney continues to climb too while most of their assets are closed down. I guess it's all in anticipation of a return to more normal conditions, but it's all too rich for my blood right now. Home sales also crashed 21% in March. I've been wrong on every instinct I've had for the past 5 weeks. Still, I sense a big correction is inevitable in the not too distant future, perhaps after next quarter losses arrive based on 3 months in this quagmire instead of only 1 month. Maybe that instinct will be wrong too, like all of my others and upside down world is the new normal.

    They all need to shed jobs and it looks like that some are doing just that. We're going to see much higher unemployment for the next few years, but that isn't such a bad thing.

    Once they lean themselves, the road to recovery will begin. Disney will be just fine although I am assuming most of their capital improvements will be delayed.

    #3930 65 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Oh, yeah. Buffett sold all of his airline stocks. He is back on train time.
    “I don’t know that three, four years from now people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year,” he said. “You’ve got too many planes.”
    ” .....

    I think he's dead on with that assessment.

    #3944 64 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    Mind boggling to think that the economy has been shut down for nearly 2 months, we have 30+ million people unemployed and the Nasdaq is only down 1% for the year.
    The Fed is in a helicopter hovering over Wall Street shoveling cash at anything and everything!

    It isn't shut down.

    #3949 63 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    Me after seeing that Disney had a huge earnings miss, cut their dividend and the stock is up today..[quoted image]

    You might want to shift your perspective to look at the bigger picture instead of short term. The economy has slowed, but it hasn't "shut down". Factories and construction and retail are still taking place, especially construction which has tamped up. Big difference between slow down and shut down.

    As far as Disney, plans are underway to reopen and furloughs have been made for now.

    2 weeks later
    #4148 48 days ago

    How many Americans are 70 or over?

    2 weeks later
    #4310 30 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    I think we will have a sell off tomorrow.

    Not happening yet.

    #4344 27 days ago
    Quoted from DBLM:

    Plus, it has come out that 70 testing sites were destroyed during the protests.
    Good luck, all.


    1 week later
    #4493 16 days ago
    Quoted from swampfire:

    Actually the bigger question/issue is, will half of the country accept the election outcome? I can see some unrest with either candidate being elected, unless it's a landslide margin.

    Half the country didn't accept the election results 3 years ago. Nothing new and the market and the economy continued.

    #4523 13 days ago
    Quoted from Richthofen:

    Don't think you're right. Presidents and markets are loosely correlated.

    Until their policies are enacted.

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