(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

4 years ago



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#1309 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

Ok, I was just checking because some people might have all assets in one stock. There was a famous internet thread I’ll try to post it. But some guys were in on an Apple supplier and they got fabulously rich quickly and lost it all in a matter of days. Some of the posts are heartbreaking to read.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/investing/general/2014/11/02/heartbreaking-lessons-from-regular-joes-who-lost-i.aspx
I love Apple stock but I’m almost too into them but almost can’t sell right now because I don’t want to pay massive tax on gains. ( my holding in Apple are not in a tax shelter account).

Good old GTAT. I bought $10k worth of that for a swing when I saw it had gone from $20ish down to $10ish. I don't remember the details, but I sold out either the same day or a day or two later for essentially no gain or loss. It was less than a week later that it dropped 90% overnight. I was stupid to buy it and lucky I didn't still own it.

3 weeks later
#1343 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

I have no idea if we’ll get a correction soon but wouldn’t hate it because I like to buy stuff when it’s on sale.

If you're into dividend payers, Exxon is at a 52 week low, Chevron is close. Walgreens is near a 2 year low, with 44 years of dividend increases and buys back shares each quarter. Plus they have the potential go-private buyout hanging over them.

They aren't the elegant high flyers, but a portfolio needs a few quality dividend payers to keep it grounded.

#1347 1 year ago
Quoted from Kkuoppamaki:

Exxon and Chevron certainly has nice dividend returns, but I'm not sure I'm that hot on energy/oil right now. With that, any suggestions on solid dividend payers with potential for growth in share price?

Look up the holdings in Vanguard's Dividend Growth fund (VDIGX)

2 weeks later
#1367 1 year ago

Guy at work said his buddy just made $50k in a week on TSLA, so he's going to give it a try. Never traded a share in his life. Bought one out of the money call.

Also seeing videos popping up claiming how you can pay for your student loans day trading from your phone during class. History repeats.

#1372 1 year ago
Quoted from Chitownpinball:

Ya, buy high....lol what a dumb ass. I really hope he doesnt do this.

Buy high and sell higher

#1374 1 year ago
Quoted from Chitownpinball:

Do you really see tesla going up to 1k already? I expect another hard drop before were in permanent smiles times...
First time I bought TSLA: $240
Sold at $380 before Elons twitter melt down
Second buy at $280
Not selling again. Wont buy more unless under $500.

I wouldn't touch TSLA short or long. I was short a few shares the day Musk made his illegal tweet about going private. Cost me about a grand in minutes. Haven't traded it since.

#1383 1 year ago
Quoted from Baiter:

It's good lesson to not try to time the market. While the initial drop you refer to was 15%, TSLA has gone up 250% since then... so you would have made back that loss many times over if you left it alone. Options are just that... trying to time the market.

You misread that. I was short TSLA at around $350. Musk lied and said the company was going private at $420 a share. The shares skyrocketed and were halted for a time. They reopened at something like $380-390. When the truth came out, the shares went back down and I would have ended up with a hefty profit, but taking his tweet at value I covered my short at a loss rather than waiting to see it jump to $420. How he didn't get punished by the SEC for that is beyond me.

#1386 1 year ago

Technically yes, but it was a slap on the wrist. He had to give up a symbolic title. He was told he had to have future tweets pre-approved (which he never has and continues to violate), and he got a token fine. He's made billions in paper gains from his tweets. It's the equivalent of insider trading in my book and should be treated the same.

#1390 1 year ago
Quoted from WonderMellon:

@trekkie1978 would you mind explaining for the uninitiated? Calls mean you are shorting right? So you shorted 1k shares at $3.20 on Jan 2 and then sold the options on Friday? $0.27 indicated you made $0.27 per share? That would mean 3k @ $0.27 = $810 profit.
Do I have that right?

That sounds right except 300 shares, not 3k. Kind of a small trade compared to most of Trekkie's posts. That's more in my range

(3.20 - 0.27) * 300 = $879 profit.

#1392 1 year ago
Quoted from Trekkie1978:

I only own 300 shares of Disney. When I sold the calls, I felt the stock wasn't going to go any higher. Trying to maximize my return on the stock.

Makes sense. I'm doing the same to help with the bleeding in my MO, XOM, WBA, and KHC. Hoping the dividends plus option premiums counter the loss in share price.

1 week later
#1408 1 year ago
Quoted from Happy81724:

I don’t know a ton on the stock market but starting to learn from my brother. Early Last week he had me buy sqqq with the virus and it appears to be going up. I guess it goes up when the market is down. I’ll just have to see when to sell

Those leveraged ETFs are dangerous if you get them wrong. I played around with them 6-8 years ago and lost my shirt. Multiple times I lost $25k overnight. Still have a capital loss carryover of about $100k on my yearly taxes from them. On a positive note, I can make gains for several years to come without paying taxes on them because they'll just lower that loss carryover.

#1411 1 year ago
Quoted from Happy81724:

Gotcha, I only did 2k on it and bought at around 16 but it’s up to 17.39. He did tell me they are a gamble but I am ok with the little amount I did. He has much more into it. I’m sure I’ll sell soon.

They're short term trading vehicles. Over the long term all of them will go to 0. Go back to 2012 and SQQQ was over 6000. A lot of them are based on the options market and they lose money each month when they roll the options from one month to another. That and something that goes up 10% in a day, then down 10% in a day will end up lower in the long run. (100 + 10% = 110 - 10% = 99)

#1413 1 year ago
Quoted from Happy81724:

Ok, thanks. He did say not to keep it long. We really only had a limited amount of time with the virus impact. He thought sell around 19 or 20.

Yah they're great for fast moving markets when you're on the right side of the trade. Like today.

#1442 1 year ago
Quoted from ovfdfireman:

Within the Dow, six stocks hit new lows Tuesday and no stocks hit new highs. The new lows were shares of Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), 3M Co. (MMM), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) and Chevron Corp. (CVX). All worth at least taking a look at, why and when it is best to buy an oversold company. None of these companies are going out of business anytime soon. I am guessing this might be part of the reasoning, but curious as well trekkie1978

Unfortunately WBA and XOM are my two largest positions. I'm way overweight on WBA (1500 shares and short another 15 $50 Jan 21 puts) at around 15% of my portfolio. At least it pays a good dividend, does a buyback, is an aristocrat, and has buyout chatter from last year. I've missed most of the run-up in stocks for the last decade, but I'm about 75% cash and bonds that I can use to go shopping. Also selling puts on things I'd like to own a bit cheaper like AVGO and DIS.

#1462 1 year ago

Other than swing trades and a few dividend payers I've been mostly cash and bond funds for years. Bond funds have done quite well, but nothing compared to stocks. I've been wanting to start building up some index fund exposure, so I sold 4 SPY puts, a couple expiring tomorrow and a couple in two weeks. At the current price of 307, looks like I'll get assigned all 4 at around 314 cost basis. I'm fine with that as an initial purchase. If/when the market drops 10-15% more, I'll pick up 4 more. I'd like to end up around 1200-1500 shares of SPY and 30-40% cash/bonds for a balanced portfolio.

#1475 1 year ago
Quoted from Trekkie1978:

15-20% drops are not something that normally happens.
Was market overbought? Yep...it’s why I sold calls.
Was market overpriced? Not really. That’s why I went for Exxon and more First Solar.

That Exxon drop is painful. I have 600 averaged somewhere in the upper 50s. I don't like that they seem to be paying the dividend by increasing debt. That's a poor long-term strategy. If oil doesn't go up significantly, they'll have to cut the dividend or sell assets.

#1508 1 year ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

US Stock futures down around 1% right now (Sunday 8 PM):
https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

They're up now, and about 3-4% higher than Friday's low. They can move fast. We'll see where they are at the open tomorrow.

#1537 1 year ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

There story sounds like it is from the TV show Silicon Valley.

They should have used a middle-out algorithm.

#1577 1 year ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

I wonder how the rental car industry is doing. Flights are down so rentals through that source are down, but could people be renting cars more for long distance travel as an alternative to flying and other public transportation?

Hertz stock is down over 50% in two weeks, so I'm going to say business is not well.

#1643 12 months ago
Quoted from Trekkie1978:

Thanks. Beat me to it.
Imagine if the news covered the flu, the way they cover the coronavirus...

Italy just quarantined the entire country. They don't do that for the flu.

#1666 12 months ago
Quoted from Friengineer:

Back to STOCKS please. Is big oil really dead? Is XOM toast because of their debt load?

XOM will be fine. They're trading at half what they were trading at in 2016 when oil went to like $26/barrel. They have 32 billion in cap-ex they could cut if needed. If anything, having a bunch of their competitors go out of business and reducing world output will be a huge positive. It may take a few years to play out, but with a 7-8% dividend you're getting paid to wait for it.

#1732 12 months ago
Quoted from pinballjah:

Any recommended dividend stocks right now? Ford at 10%, crazy. Thanks.

Broadcom pays 5% and is something like 30% off its high
3M pays 4% and is 40% off its high
UPS pays 4.5% and is 40% off its high
XOM pays 8% and is 50% off its high
MO pays 8%
LEG pays 4.7% and is 40% off its high

All are dividend aristocrats except maybe UPS.

#1802 12 months ago
Quoted from rai:

I can’t see XOM cutting dividends after 37 years of raising dividends. XOM also is involved with downstream refining and gas stations as well as chemicals which aren’t that effected by low oil prices. Likely XOM will pick up on cheap small oil companies that are struggling.

They won't be cutting. Judging by their history they'll raise next quarter. Just keep collecting those 7-8% yearly checks, reinvest them if that's your thing, and you'll be happy years from now. As always, know your risk. They're about 1% of my portfolio and currently my only energy play. I do think Chevron has the better balance sheet though.

#1805 12 months ago
Quoted from JY64:

Be careful following advice on the page as this same poster recommended Exxon again today with a %35 drop since his pryer recommendation

FYI I don't recommended anything, I comment on stocks I think are potentially undervalued. I'm an income investor. I mostly buy dividend aristocrats trading at discounts to their historical yield. If those purchases get to be too much of a premium to their historical yield I'll sell and purchase something that's undervalued. Sometimes I sell puts on things I wouldn't mind owning cheaper (ie I sold XOM puts at $57 and got assigned, today I sold more XOM puts at $41). I'll also sell covered calls to generate income on positions I wouldn't mind getting out of at slightly higher levels. I have zero interest in the flavor of the week stock (such as SPCE that you mentioned a couple weeks back).

#1915 12 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

Agreed. The blood in the streets moment has not yet arrived, IMO.

How much was it down so far this week before today? 14% or so? Multiple 2000 point down days in a week. That sure feels bloody. VIX almost hit 80. It's pretty rare to hit 40.

#1922 12 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

Right now, everybody has just been giving back their gains.

Not everybody. I'm 6 figures into the red. I was in cash and bonds, so missed all the gains.

#1926 12 months ago
Quoted from sataneatscheese:

Presidential press conference announced for 3 EST on the Corona Virus. Will the market spike or crater afterwards?

Probably announcing he's infected. Or stock markets will close for a couple weeks.

#1928 12 months ago

The fed is doing several rounds of QE buying treasuries all day long today. In the good old days those would lead to gains.

#1930 12 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

You were in cash and bonds and are down 6 figures? Cash is cash. Bond prices have been going up. How does that cost you 6 figures? I don't understand.

I *was* in cash and bonds waiting for a pullback. I started buying in at S&P 3200, then more at 3000, then more at 2800, then more at 2600. The losses are adding up.

#1934 12 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

I see. Trying to pick the bottom and then started the averaging down play. Sounds like it was supposed to be a short term trade that turned into a long term investment

No, I don't do short term plays. it was a "If I'm ever going to retire on what I've accumulated, I'm going to have to get in stocks since bond funds are going to be paying 1% play". I'm trying to put together a portfolio that pays $50k in dividends a year plus hopefully also grows in principal over time. It's about half S&P index and half dividend aristocrats. I'm not done average down yet. Hopefully it stays down for a while. I can put $1-2k a week into it.

#1956 12 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

It's a loss. Massage it anyway you want. It is a loss. Especially if you are trading on margin. The margin clerk does not care. Trading on Margin means your equity is the first to go. Because you have an unrealized loss, the margin clerk wants some cash. Yeah, you can hold and pray the market comes back before your life is over. But if your statement is showing red ink you have a loss.

If the housing market drops and your house goes down in value 20% do you sell it because it's a loss? You still own your house the same way you own x% of a company you have shares in.

#1989 11 months ago
Quoted from pinballjah:

Any sign on direction yet?

Weekend wall street is pretty much useless, but they went from -1000 Dow to about flat. Futures open in 40 minutes, that's when you'll know more.

#1996 11 months ago
Quoted from DBLM:

Market is going to open up big tomorrow. Who knows what it will do later in the day. I will probably sell into the news tomorrow based upon the things that I bought last week. The infection curve is going to go up by nature and we will see an uptake in methodologies to try to curb the infection. As I have said a bunch of times, this is a trading market right now, so being nimble is the best way. Good luck to all.

Futures are limit down. Most they can drop in one session.

#2030 11 months ago

When they took these measures in 2008 it didn't magically make the market return to previous highs overnight. It took like 9 months to bottom and it was still fragile for a couple years after that. The flash crash was over a year after the market bottomed. If you're a trader, maybe you can get out and try to time the market. If you're investing for retirement, do your weekly/monthly cost averaging that you would do any other time.

#2035 11 months ago
Quoted from cait001:

yikes, is that really their lust hurrah?
Sub 22k DJI on the futures market.

Not at all. They'll be doing QE every day or so. They buy billions of dollars in treasuries, and that money they spend has a way of finding itself into the stock market. They did it for years after the financial crisis.

#2036 11 months ago

This is what they announced last week. I think what they said today is on top of this.

coupon schedule (resized).jpg
#2037 11 months ago

Their final bullet will be outright stock purchases. I don’t think they have the authority to do that yet, but they’d get it as a last resort. Some countries like Japan already do it.

#2108 11 months ago

Doesn't the government end up making huge profits from the bailouts? It's not like it's free money they never get back. They made billions in the long run after the financial crisis.

#2110 11 months ago
Quoted from thedarkknight77:

Yikes, DOW 10,000???? Don’t you think that is a little pessimistic???

Why not go all-in on panic and say 5000? The experts expect a couple soft quarters, then the return to earnings growth and an estimate of $175 in earnings for the S&P in 2021. Then the question is what multiple to apply to that? They said if there's a panic premium like in 2009 that makes the multiple 12, that gives you 2100 S&P. Return to 18.5 multiple that we were at a month ago and that gets you back to 3200+.

#2136 11 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

Boeing is down another $18.00 to $110.00.

They got down to 101 earlier. I kind of wanted to buy BA 3 months ago, before the virus. Not interested now.

#2153 11 months ago

I sold a SPY $220 put expiring Friday. If the market drops another 12 percent this week, you can blame me.

#2169 11 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

I won't blame you. But I might pray for you

I'd be ok if it executed. It would get me another 100 shares at $216 basis. I mentioned a few weeks ago I'm trying to accumulate about 1000-1500 SPY shares. I've bought 600 so far, so the more I can average in lower the better. Once I'm done accumulating, I'm going to sell calls against them above my average price. Keep collecting premiums until the market recovers.

#2187 11 months ago
Quoted from hank35:

Question. Using Microsoft as an example. It appears shares are currently at $139.00. If I order now, before the market opens, will I get $139.00 price or the next price when market opens?
Thanks

Any decent platform will let you trade in the pre and post market as well. So you could get it at the current price ($138.xx) if you use one of those brokers.

#2253 11 months ago
Quoted from mcluvin:

Industrial demand has fallen off a cliff? Margin calls in other investments?

Both of these. When everything is dropping and you’re over leveraged, you sell what you can, not what you want to.

I checked all the silver sites earlier thinking of buying some. All are sold out with months of delays. Silver rounds and bars are selling on eBay with huge premiums. Demand is off the charts from the physical stackers.

#2257 11 months ago
Quoted from noob-a-tron:

So if i buy on backorder will it be the price i buy it at when it comes into stock?

All the sites I checked won't even let you order now.

#2258 11 months ago
Quoted from Rondogg:

I read this and thought, "can't be right, silver is $12.13 an ounce which is down 30% from not too long ago".
Then I checked Gainesville Coins. All products sold out. Holy shit!

I think it was Monday morning when it crashed like $3. I went to maybe buy some and started shopping around. There was plenty still in stock then, but while I was shopping the price went back up $1/ounce. Now it's back down where it was, but sold out everywhere. On Monday the sites were saying 2-4 weeks delay in delivery. Now some are saying 16-18 weeks delivery and all the products say "notify me" when back in stock instead of letting you order.

#2260 11 months ago

Silvertowne has a few rounds in stock, but they are about $3/ounce over spot in bulk:

https://www.silvertowne.com/c-601-buffalo-replica-1-ounce-silver-rounds.aspx

I researched this a bit a couple years ago, but I can't remember who is the cheapest seller. SD Bullion is selling one ounce bars for less than $1 over spot if you buy 1500 of them, but they are sold out.

#2262 11 months ago
Quoted from noob-a-tron:

I found somewhere its $17.33 an ounce should i pull the trigger?

The problem I have with buying any, the reason I never have bought any in bulk, is usually these places charge you $2-3 dollars over spot price to buy, then if you go to sell back to them they buy them under spot. So you're already in the hole a few dollars an ounce from the second you buy them. Right now it looks like you could sell them on Ebay for about $8 or so over spot, but you have to pay selling fees and ship them to your buyer and that eats up a lot of the profit. Your best bet is probably just to buy SLV and avoid all the slippage and hassle of messing with the physical product. But owning real silver is cool to me.

#2263 11 months ago

I dodged a bullet with Vanguard's High Yield Corp Fund. I've been buying it since 2010 in my and my wife's Roth IRA, buying a little each year and always reinvesting the monthly dividends. It had crept up to about 20% of our IRAs from all that. It was a pretty consistent 5.75-6.00 a share paying around 4.5%-5.0% dividend the whole decade. Figuring the energy market was going to crash high yield bonds, I sold out both accounts two weeks ago at 5.93-5.95. Today it's 5.05.

#2265 11 months ago
Quoted from Deaconblooze:

I feel like we need a similar "blunt the curve" message for the bottom of the market.
You guys are making me nervous, but at least for now I'm sticking with my plan of upping my contributions for the next several months and maintaining current holdings. I was on a path to retire at 55 (if I want). That's still 20 years out, so I'm trying to maintain some positivity about that prospect right now.

Likewise. I've been telling co-workers I wanted to retire at the end of this year (at 43). I still have a couple side jobs I'd keep doing. Told them last week to forget I mentioned it.

#2281 11 months ago
Quoted from Methos:

My situation is very similar to yours, even with the larger house that was under-valued. I think back a few years to a co-worker who just could not wait to retire. He was really skilled with picking investments and monitored them daily. He finally retired.
3 months after he left, he was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and was dead within 6 months. Made me reprioritize my life a bit. I really wanted to get out in my mid 50's, but with this now, who knows what will happen. I'm thankful for being alive and semi enjoying my job, we'll see where things go from here. But as soon as I can comfortable leave the workforce, I'm going to do it.

I’m losing track of the number of coworkers I’ve had that have died in their 40s-60s. Literally worked until they died. About a month ago our CEO had a headache and went to the doctor. He was told he has aggressive brain cancer and won’t live a year. I don’t want that to be me.

#2283 11 months ago
Quoted from Deaconblooze:

That's awful, I'm sorry. Having had some stuff like that relatively close to me, I can only give advice along the lines of something like "it probably wont be, but act like it might be".

Thanks. A few weeks before that, the office manager of my old job (that most of us at the current job used to work at) dropped dead of a heart attack. Super active healthy guy. Ran marathons regularly. He looked 50, but I think he was about 66.

#2293 11 months ago
Quoted from Methos:

Here is the thing. That could be you and I, and chances are it will be at least one of us. My son's company's CEO also just died, a very young and well respected man. Same thing, aggressive cancer.

It could be. We all have an expiration date. My point was that if my expiration date is at 60, I'd rather live a frugal lifestyle and retire at 45 than spend a lot and work until I die.

Speaking of houses and land, my first house was a disaster I bought right out of college and lost a fortune on. My second I bought at 25 and paid off by 30. Moved shortly after, bought another house that was $150k more than the last and paid that one off in 5 years. Now I'm looking to downsize next time I move. My current house is only about 3000 sqft, but there's two rooms I've never used and it's too much trouble keeping it clean and too expensive paying to heat and cool rooms I don't even use (not to mention the extra in insurance and taxes). I do want land though. I'm looking at a 4.5 acre lot in a gated community about 1/4 mile from the golf course clubhouse back in my old neighborhood. It's under $30k. 7 acre lot on the same street is $35k.

#2297 11 months ago
Quoted from sataneatscheese:

"Quinine". This stuff is used in the saltwater aquarium hobby to get rid of flatworms. It used to go for 20$ a bottle. A few weeks ago they were going for $500 a bottle on Ebay. Now you can't find it.
We used to have day laborers come in and buy fish anti-biotics when I worked at an aquarium store. People treat the pet store like an emergency pharmacy.

Iranians are using Ethanol. It's not going well.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/alcohol-poisoning-kills-100-iranians-seeking-virus-protection

#2300 11 months ago

Fed is doing 75 Billion in QE today and 75 Billion tomorrow. 75 Billion in one day is more than they did in one month at the height of QE. Here is today's schedule:

9:40 – 10:00 am: Treasury Coupons 7 to 20 year sector, for around $6 billion

10:30 – 10:50 am: Treasury Coupons 4.5 to 7 year sector, for around $11 billion

11:20 – 11:40 am: Treasury Coupons 2.25 to 4.5 year sector, for around $17 billion

12:10 – 12:30 pm: Treasury Coupons 0 to 2.25 year sector, for around $25 billion

1:00 – 1:20 pm: Treasury Coupons 20 to 30 year sector, for around $9 billion

1:50 – 2:10 pm: TIPS 1 to 7.5 year sector (Thursday)/TIPS 7.5 to 30 year sector (Friday), for around $7 billion

#2305 11 months ago
Quoted from DBLM:

I think you are going to see a bunch of companies in the same boat. Will impact dividend investing.

I'm moving away from individual stocks and going more ETFs, but the stocks I still have are mostly aristocrats. They've increased their dividend 25+ (some 50+) years in a row. Some of them are now yielding 7-10%. They'll do anything to keep their aristocrat status, so if you want to gamble you could be setting yourself up for life buying those now.

I worked at Leggett & Platt for 10 years. They are one of those 7% yielding aristocrats. That is their single most important metric. They led every internal quarterly earnings release mentioning it. During the financial crisis, they made corporate departments fire around 10% of employees to keep the earnings going. I'll never forget when our bosses came around to everybody's office and went through their office supplies taking any excess to ration to other employees. If we had more than a couple of pens, they took the rest. Same with paperclips, post-its, etc.

#2324 11 months ago
Quoted from Pinballmike217:

Feels like the market settled down today. Hoping the worst is over.

It's a weird world where the Dow fluctuating in a 1200 point range in a day is settling down.

#2357 11 months ago

It's quad witching day. Hold on to your hats. These are typically the days each year with the most trading volume.

"Quadruple witching refers to a date on which stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. While stock options contracts and index options expire on the third Friday of every month, all four asset classes expire simultaneously on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December."

With this out of the way, markets should be much less volatile starting Monday. The outstanding options are playing a big part in the huge swings up and down each day.

#2390 11 months ago
Quoted from PunkPin:

Which would you guys recommend for an individual brokerage account fidelity or vanguard? Or is there a better option out there?
Looking to buy some on my own outside of my account with my broker. Mostly single stocks and maybe some indexes and mutual funds.. dont know enough about puts or any of that yet.

Depends what you're buying. Vanguard is great for low cost ETFs, mutual funds, free stock trades, etc. If you plan to trade in the premarket or aftermarket, or want to daytrade, you'll want something built for that.

#2503 11 months ago

FED just threw unlimited money at everything.

#2504 11 months ago

And premarket just went green....at least temporarily.

#2505 11 months ago

Once the bailout package is passed, on top of these Fed moves, I think it's safe to put your retirement money back to work. You can't predict these things, which is why investing a consistent amount of money at consistent intervals is best for long term investments.

#2568 11 months ago
Quoted from phil-lee:

A phantom bull market will begin Months before the virus has abated, I'm beginning to think bottom. When 10 year displays over 1% for 2 days I'm putting cash back to work.

Yep. The market always turns before the economy.

#2574 11 months ago
Quoted from Zablon:

Whatever is causing it, that is a heck of an open...wrong of me to hope it drops back down to 18000?

You really can't time it. I have 4 IRAs that were around 50% cash/bonds until a couple weeks ago. I've been limping in a bit at a time with bigger buys each time we have a Dow down 1000+ day. Yesterday was my biggest buy yet.

Unfortunately I also have a brokerage account and I went all-in on that one a couple weeks back. That's the one that's hurting, but I only need about half the drop to come back to get back in the black. Much better than going all-in at all time highs I guess.

I'm more cautious with the IRAs because there are such small limits on yearly contributions to them.

#2578 11 months ago
Quoted from Zablon:

It's not about betting against, or timing, it's about nothing has changed from yesterday. There's NO 'positive' reason for the market to be up that much other than false emotions. This is why I suck at the market though, I don't agree with what drives it.

Maybe not since yesterday, but I think it changed yesterday. The Fed came out and said they would buy everything, including things they didn't buy in the financial crisis, in unlimited amounts.

#2609 11 months ago
Quoted from pinballjah:

Good story. Sounds like my OILU purchase. Bought the security for $11.67 and wrote the $10 January 2021 calls for $4.50. Net cost of $7.17. OILU can't trade below $10 and oil can only go up. Guaranteed to make a cool 39% for less than a year. Less than a month later, OILU is currently trading at 30 cents.

That's playing with fire. Those 3x leveraged ETFs are all guaranteed to go to 0 on a long enough timeline.

#2655 11 months ago

I used Scottrade about 20 years ago. Then used E-trade. Then used Ameritrade (they have Think or Swim included). I don't daytrade anymore, so I just use Vanguard so I can consolidate all my accounts in one place.

I think everywhere has free stock trades now. Pretty sure options still cost a little. Vanguard options are $1 per contract.

#2739 11 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

No worries. The Bear market is over.
https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-news-today-032620/index.html
"Stocks log third day of gains, Dow emerges from bear market"
From CNN Business' Anneken Tappe
=================================
Gasoline demand is falling off a cliff

That's one definition of a bull market. I've also heard some commentators on CNBC say you don't get out of a bear market until you go above the old highs.

#2744 11 months ago
Quoted from sataneatscheese:

Will the dow be up or down atbthe end of the week? I am predicting sub 17k.

Are you still predicting this for tomorrow?

#2752 11 months ago
Quoted from Rondogg:

Which do you think we will see first, 29k or 17k?

My guess is 29k, but it won't be this year.

#2755 11 months ago

I think investingdad has the best approach in this thread. Go read some of his posts. Sounds like a boglehead. I wish I'd followed that strategy.

#2757 11 months ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

During this financial whirlwind I have continued to max out my biweekly retirement contributions into the S&P based fund my 401k/tsp offers. Today I re-started putting in optional catch-up contributions (for age 50+) at a rate that will max out ($6500/yr) after 11 bi-weeks (to dollar cost average that sort of).
The money I had been putting in the 401k/tsp over the last 23 years was pulled out back in August and remains in a low percentage accrual safety (G Fund). I plan to consider getting some of that money back into the market between DOW 17000 and 11000 (if it gets back in that range) in chunks around 10% at a time.

What if it doesn't? What if Monday was the low? Will you get back in at some point? Typically there would be a retest of Monday's low in a few months, but you never know.

#2786 11 months ago
Quoted from Whysnow:

thanks
I am talking about a full rebalance where I move all my current stuff around (dump the index, small, mid, etc... and put it 100% in the bond)
I would leave my purchase for all future stuff the same to they catch some of the upswing.
My thought is I would be doing 2 rebalances. First is now, to decrease losses (the bond option is like -3% on the year compared to -25% for most other things). Second would be after I feel market has fully bottomed, to rebalance to a nice mix again and try to maximize the climb back.
I am very much a set it and forget it. I did the research and basically do a slight rebalance each year or 6 months to move more conservative with funds (as I get closer to predicted retirement).
Thinking that a rebalance today could easily save me from another 30+% losses (what I expect the overall market to do in the next 6 months), but pretty nervous about that since it is not my area of knowledge.
My primary investments are reall rental property, which is more scary in the short term (tenants paying???) but my bread and butter in the longer term.

Go do some reading on the boglehead forums. These guys will keep you on your long term strategy and talk you out of making mistakes you'll regret.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=1&sid=5af8a85261a4634f406add48667b2161

#2804 11 months ago
Quoted from Methos:

I haven't been over there in years, but just did a quick walk though.
Wow.
Their C19 thread makes ours look like a playground.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=305217&start=3850

I skimmed a couple pages of it and they seem a bit more civil

I don't go there often, don't even have an account there, but they're a calming influence during market turmoils. Lots of folks with multi-million dollar retirement accounts post there.

#2806 11 months ago
Quoted from Methos:

You can tell the level of sophistication is a bit..."different". I almost want to take advantage of a "portfolio review request", but I'm a bit apprehensive on the feedback.

I think their standard answer is your entire portfolio should be in some combination of total stock market, total bond market, and total international market. For most people (myself included), that's probably the best bet, but it sure is boring.

#2812 11 months ago
Quoted from Whysnow:

not much funds here...
How do I turn a 401k into cash?
I would be happy to just park it on the sidelines and wait.

When I had a 401k, there were a couple funds that were essentially money market funds. Close to the same as cash. Check Fidelity for one of those.

#2852 11 months ago
Quoted from pinballjah:

Would someone be able to explain this option transaction. What does the '100' represent and the 'W27'? AAPL traded between $247 and $255 on Friday. Thanks for the help.[quoted image]

I'm guessing these are weekly options (the "W") expiring 3/27/20. The 100 is one contract (100 shares). I don't do spreads and other more complex strategies, just buying and selling puts and calls.

#2869 11 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

It means the futures market has already gone down as far as it is allowed to go down. Once limit up or limit down has been reached, to more trading is allowed until some time passes. If you had bet on the market to go up you are now crying the blues and if you had bet for the market to go down you are dancing in the streets.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-index-futures-trigger-limit-down-rule-heres-how-limit-rules-and-stock-market-circuit-breakers-work-2020-03-16

That's not quite right. Limit up or limit down is the max they can trade in that direction, but they don't pause (the futures market. The cash market pauses during normal trading hours), they can reverse at any time. One night last week, I think Sunday night (and Monday morning) they hit limit down within minutes of opening. Then they spent several hours recovering 1-3% of their losses, then going back down to limit down over and over.

#2891 11 months ago
Quoted from sd_tom:

what's the catch / fine print im missing?

They're a day trading vehicle meant to never be held overnight. Most of them rebalance daily, many are based on stock futures so they have time decay as well.

Imagine you start at 100 and the index goes down 5%, at 3x leverage now you're down to 85. The next day it goes up 5%. Now that just gets you back to 97.75. Repeat that enough times and you always end at zero.

#2896 11 months ago
Quoted from cait001:

DOW futures right now... -27.00 / -0.13%
probably the calmest I've seen it in a long time!

Futures don't open for another 4.5 hours. Weekend Wall Street is the closest you can get to an idea of what's going on when the futures are closed, but they're not a good barometer (they have the DOW down about 200 points at the moment)

#2902 11 months ago

Futures are barely down, just over a percent. They opened down almost 3% and have slowly climbed since.

#2919 11 months ago

Looks like it's opening up about 1% today. Maybe all the doomsayers predicting limit down and 50% more losses are wrong.

#2922 11 months ago
Quoted from Rondogg:

You seem to be always ready to second guess people's opinions. What do you think is going to happen?

I'm not foolish enough to predict the market on a day to day basis. That's just flipping a coin. It will likely be higher in a year than it is today. It will definitely be higher in 5 years than it is today, and higher still again in 10 years, etc. It has to be. 401Ks depend on it. IRAs depend on it. Pensions depend on it. Entire states and countries budgets depend on it. To prevent anarchy and societal breakdown, the market must rise over time, and governments will print unlimited money to make that happen.

#2924 11 months ago
Quoted from Zablon:

I think 'has to be' because of 401k's isn't the proper way to look at it...if they print unlimited money, it makes the whole point of saving any money or even using money pointless.

I wish it was that way and that savers could win. With inflation, they force you to participate in the markets or get left behind watching your buying power evaporate. I guess you can buy hard goods like pinball machines that will appreciate, but keeping your money in cash just won't work.

#2926 11 months ago
Quoted from Rondogg:

This thread has always been a safe place for people to be able to predict short term action in the market without being called out. In fact, most people who call out bad predictions have a prediction that was proved correct. With the current pandemic, the need for fast information about what is going to happen is more important than ever.
A long term view of this is safe and probably correct. There are also people in this thread who are making a lot of money by predicting correctly the market shifts and the companies/investments who can prosper during these dark days. In my estimation there is room for everybody provided we all respect and allow for an open discussion.

I agree with you. I think short term predictions on individual stocks, or even sectors is fine. I'm just seeing too many people on various sites rooting for the whole market to go to zero or for capitalism itself to be replaced. For myself, I welcome the chance to buy more at lower levels, but I'm compassionate and I'm thinking about the folks nearing retirement or recently retired who are watching their dreams be shattered.

#2936 11 months ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

Are you saying that pessimism is the same thing as "rooting for"? I would call it being realistic and pragmatic.
If I say I am planning on buying at some lower market level then that is not "rooting for" it to go down, but instead is merely putting a value on when it is worth buying in to me.

When I see people above saying 9-11k on the DOW, I see trolling. I don't want to see the pain that would cause millions of people. That's beyond stock market losses. That's real world poverty and job losses.

#2938 11 months ago
Quoted from thedarkknight77:

If the market was the decline that drastically, it would mean we are headed for a depression.

Exactly. None of us want that.

#2946 11 months ago
Quoted from pinlink:

I suck at this. How is EVERYTHING up right now? Thought we would see another plunge today.

Don't fight the Fed? Who knows, the day is young, it might end down.

There's massive fund rebalancing going on until the end of the month. Funds are selling bonds and buying stocks to keep their allocation where they want it.

#2966 11 months ago

I'm a small fish compared to some of you guys, but I sold 6 SPY $300 covered calls expiring in a month. I'm betting the S&P doesn't rally 400 points in a month from here. If it does, my shares get called away, otherwise I get a bit over $1k in premiums.

#2967 11 months ago
Quoted from ReplayRyan:

Bought 5,000 of BA this morning at $154. Will sell at $120 later this week.

I've been that guy....

#2976 11 months ago

Apparently it's 99 cents already at a few stations around the country. I filled up Saturday for 1.69 here.

#2979 11 months ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

I believe the last time I paid less than a dollar was 1998.

That sounds right. I was in college then and remember it getting to about 80 cents here. It was really close to $1 in 2002, but I don't remember if it went below.

#2999 11 months ago
Quoted from swampfire:

What worries me is the possibility that Delta goes bankrupt - but at least Warren Buffet and I will be in the same boat.

Me and Uncle Warren are riding together with some Kraft Heinz. It's been a bumpy ride.

#3023 11 months ago
Quoted from loneacer:

I'm a small fish compared to some of you guys, but I sold 6 SPY $300 covered calls expiring in a month. I'm betting the S&P doesn't rally 400 points in a month from here. If it does, my shares get called away, otherwise I get a bit over $1k in premiums.

Bought these back today. Wasn't planning to, but had a 70% gain in one day (and the S&P only declined 42 points). That VIX drop must be bleeding out the premiums fast. I'll sell some more on the next bounce.

Also sold a 4/17 280 AVGO Covered Call and a 4/24 280 AVGO Covered Call this morning and then bought them back about an hour later for over 50% profit. I'm not big on daytrading or playing with options, but I can see the lure of big gains with them.

#3083 11 months ago
Quoted from taylor34:

That’s kind of the point I’m making...with Walmart I just save my shopping list, stop by the store on my way home, they put the groceries in my trunk and I leave without ever setting foot in the store. Way cheaper than other grocery stores and way easier. You never have to set foot in a Walmart again.

I've never been in a Costco. As far as I know, no member of my extended family has ever been in a Costco. Looking at their store locator, it looks like the closest one to SW Missouri is over 2 hours away. However I've gone to Walmart once a week almost every week for the last 25 years. I grew up within an hour of Walmart's corporate office. Walmart is just part of the culture of my generation in this part of the country.

#3147 11 months ago
Quoted from DBLM:

Let's have a little fun today. It is 9 AM and the DOW is projected to open down. We know that there tends to be a selloff due to people not wanting to hold over the weekend. What are your predictions for the Dow closing today? I predict the DOW will close down 425. What are your predictions?

Hard to say. Oils surge is helping sentiment quite a bit, but yesterday was an up day and consecutive up days have been hard to come by. The market is barely negative on the week. I don't see it down much, but not up much either. I think the week ends fairly flat, so possibly up slightly today? Oil is up like 40% in two days. Without that I'd vote down for sure.

#3159 11 months ago
Quoted from DBLM:

Let's have a little fun today. It is 9 AM and the DOW is projected to open down. We know that there tends to be a selloff due to people not wanting to hold over the weekend. What are your predictions for the Dow closing today? I predict the DOW will close down 425. What are your predictions?

Well played Thing, you're really on the ball.

#3166 11 months ago

DOW futures are up about 450 so far, at levels higher than anything they reached on Friday. It'd be nice to see another run over 22k this week.

#3167 11 months ago
Quoted from loneacer:

DOW futures are up about 450 so far, at levels higher than anything they reached on Friday. It'd be nice to see another run over 22k this week.

15 minutes later and they're up 700 points now. Market is liking lower COVID new cases in many countries today.

#3169 11 months ago
Quoted from Happy81724:

They also think NYC has peaked so cases will start going down.

One day of data is a bit soon to party, but yes it seems new cases are lower almost everywhere. Deaths won't peak for another 1-2 weeks though.

#3202 11 months ago

I'm curious if the people that liquidated their portfolios have started getting back in yet. Today was the bounce I was hoping for. It gave me a chance to reestablish covered calls for a good chunk of my positions. Now I have a little protection against another drop.

#3249 11 months ago
Quoted from kpg:

Do you buy every dip? During the crash did you buy each day that dipped?

Can't speak for iceman, but I've been underinvested in stocks for the whole bull market waiting for a chance to get in. I've been buying in larger and larger chunks on each big down day. Here's an example of VTI purchases in one of my IRAs. It's a small account I opened two years ago, so I'm going 100% total stock ETF in it. Other accounts are more balanced. They were nearly 100% cash and bonds for a long time, but I'm migrating them to more of a 75/25 stocks/bonds.

vti (resized).JPG
#3252 11 months ago
Quoted from kpg:

If wanting to do incremental buys, you really need to see when its best to start those buys though that's the point. Knowing when the indicators say its an oversold condition. On VTI, it entered my technical area I consider oversold on March 23rd right at $114-116/share. I believe that was right around the day I posted I was buying tons of stocks for a huge bounce.
I feel the opposite today lol
As for your incremental buys you started at the top and caught a knife and weathered a ton of pain and money to get your average to what appears may be breakeven right now.
If the market turns against you, all of those buys above $135 will now be underwater, which it looks like the majority of your holdings are above $135.
The March 23rd buy was great, as most people felt so much pain that day and panic sold everything.. so good job on that one for sure. I'd probably be selling half if it was me, and buying the other half back when the market gets kicked in the nuts again, but thats me
All I know is when we get some great selling pressure to the downside again and retests the Dow 19Ks, thats where I begin my incremental buys for long holds. Because theres a great chance thats where the bottom gets formed.

Thanks. Yes I had more firepower to buy more if it kept going under 110. That's exactly my plan on selling half at break even and buying down if it drops again. I had a few smaller buys not pictured in the 160-170 range from a couple months before that, so the average was around $140.

But again, this is a small SEP IRA and I haven't contributed anything for this year yet. If it turns down again, I'll have enough cash to essentially double down if it goes under $110, bringing the average under $125. I'm not good enough, or patient enough, to time the market, but being in an IRA it's money I can't touch for another 20+ years. In 20 years I'm sure even $170 will look like a good buy.

My brokerage account is where my individual stocks are at. That's where I've been selling puts and covered calls. I sold a bunch of puts out 1-2 weeks during the last week of March that all expired worthless. Now I'm selling calls against most of my longs, most dated May-July to make the premiums big enough.

#3254 11 months ago
Quoted from kpg:

Excellent idea, that is exactly what I was going to suggest - selling covered calls against the longs.
When I go in heavy on the long side again for the long term, my strategy will go back to selling tons of covered calls when we get the boring market movements.
Today, in my opinion, is an amazing opportunity to write covered calls

Is there much option action in VTI? I didn't consider selling calls on that. I just requested to have options added to that account.

#3281 11 months ago

People have been screaming the market should be lower for 5500 DOW points so far. The market does what it wants to do, not what we think it should do.

#3337 11 months ago

Fed announced a new 2.3 Trillion lending program.

#3347 11 months ago

The money is in loans, it's not free money. Assuming it gets paid back, the Fed / government / banks will make money in the long run off this.

#3352 11 months ago
Quoted from Rondogg:

I remember a couple of weeks ago the President said the government "made a lot of money" off the 07/08 stimulus packages.

Correct. TARP made the government around 15 billion in profits.

Looks like all their bailouts combined back then made a profit of 121 billion:

https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/

#3370 11 months ago
Quoted from kpg:

All of this talk is such a contrarian indicator to me. Everyone here is thinking its going to keep going up forever. Its crazy how multiple green days can make people so bullish.
I dont have a position in play off this though. Who knows. I could be wrong. But I dont feel right enough to place big bets on the downside either lol
And to that point, people who think you cant fight the Fed and it will keep going up wont buy big today either. Iceman, you a buyer here? The Fed has got this right..

Everybody posting but Ice is on the sidelines waiting for it to go down. That doesn't sound contrarian to me. That money on the sidelines should act as support on declines.

#3378 11 months ago
Quoted from Zablon:

Oil...So uh..hooray for price fixing? smh... I know there's lots of oil lovers out there, but this is bull.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/opec-agrees-deep-oil-output-151440841.html

OPEC has always manipulated oil prices. We're only a few weeks away from running out of storage worldwide for the oil being pumped.

#3381 11 months ago

Best week for the DOW in 82 years (and it was only a 4 day week).

#3382 11 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

I said somewhere the other day that, after 40 years of the U.S. driving at OPEC to keep the prices down, that we are now partners with OPEC and Russia to get the prices up. It is jobs, of course, but more importantly, it is the 38 electoral votes that the state of Texas holds.
The whole thing started when Russia would not cut back because Putin wants the US to cut back, as well. Can't say I blame Putin. Why should he cut back just so the U.S. can keep pumping?
So, now that the U.S. is exporting oil we will be the new partner with OPEC.
[quoted image]

US needs to cut back too, but I don't think the individual companies can legally agree to as that's price fixing. Maybe they will do it with a wink and a nod.

#3385 11 months ago
Quoted from Zablon:

That's what I was just looking at, the movement this week (and even last) is massive....

I went to 100% cash in my and my wife's Roths at the close. They were pretty conservative and they were back to flat on the year with this weeks move. Planning to switch those from mutual funds to ETFs in the coming weeks for more flexibility.

Other accounts are still pretty close to fully invested. They've recovered about 75% of their losses now. I used this week to raise a little cash and sell a ton of calls against most of the holdings in those accounts. I feel better than I have since February now. At the lows on that Monday two weeks ago I was down about $175k.

#3393 11 months ago
Quoted from PanzerFreak:

Hope no one really did cash out their 401k (or even switch to safer investments with 5+ years to work) when the DOW was around 18,000 as these past two weeks prove why such an action is not advisable.

I think a couple people posted that they did. Go read through the thread 20-25 days ago. Hopefully they got back in.

#3395 11 months ago
Quoted from usandthem:

Does anyone think that the S&P at 2790 right now is priced even more richly than it was at 3390 a month and a half ago?

Priced for second quarter 2020 earnings? Absolutely. It's probably like a 40 PE. Priced for fourth quarter 2021 earnings? It's probably quite a bit cheaper.

#3429 11 months ago
Quoted from WaddleJrJr:

Planning on buying oil but have never bought before, anyone able to give me some quick tips on what/where to buy? I have a TD Ameritrade account set up that I use for stocks.

USO if you're just making a straight bet on oil.

#3467 10 months ago

Their corporate office is one street over from where I work. One of my former coworkers works there. They were hurting long before the pandemic.

#3479 10 months ago
Quoted from pinballjah:

These are not really covered puts if you only own 600 shares and are writing 12 contracts, agreed?

Looks like he sold 6 calls against 600 shares so those are the covered calls.

He also sold 6 puts, meaning he'd buy 600 more shares at 17 if he was forced to.

#3570 10 months ago

After hours is pretty happy with some drug trials right now

#3576 10 months ago
Quoted from kpg:

Looking at AH futures now (which I normally don't trust the PM futures as they can change often) it seems here we are with another attempt to gap over the 23,700 amount and cause another short squeeze.

Looks like it would gap to about 24,300 if it opened now, but it's a long way until morning.

#3594 10 months ago
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

Yes, does not affect 2020 taxes as income, no 1099 coming. Spend away!
I threw another 2k into my e-trade account with the stimulus. So yes, its to pump up the economy.

I read it's actually based on your 2020 tax return. So say you don't get the full amount now, and you make less in 2020 than you did in 2019, you'll get more back when you file your taxes. I have a side business where the income can vary quite a bit year to year, so this will apply to me.

#3597 10 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/will-you-have-to-pay-back-the-coronavirus-stimulus-check.html
The stimulus checks are not taxable income. If you are single and make less than $75K you are going to get $1200.00. Yours to keep and spend as you see fit.
" The checks — which are worth $1,200 for individuals earning up to $75,000 and $2,400 for couples earning up to $150,000, plus $500 for dependents under 17 — are structured as refundable tax credits. That is why even people who do not typically file tax returns qualify for these payments, according to the Tax Foundation, an independent think tank.

For 2019, I fall in that 150-200k married range where I will get about half of what other people get. If my 2020 income falls, I'll get the other half back on my return.

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/taxes/coronavirus-stimulus-bill-payments/

If you “made too much” in 2019, you may not get a check now even if you lose your job in 2020. But you might be made whole later (and don’t forget about filing for unemployment in the meantime). That’s because these stimulus checks are technically an advance on a 2020 tax credit that’s available all year. So if your 2020 adjusted gross income ends up being under the limit or you have a baby, you might be able to claim the tax credit (or more of the tax credit) when you file next year’s tax return.

#3607 10 months ago
Quoted from Concretehardt:

OT: do they go off your 2018 or 2019 earnings?

They go off your 2019 if you've filed them, 2018 if you haven't. Ultimately it's based on your 2020 return, so if you didn't get the full amount based on your 2018/2019 return, and you would get more based on your 2020 (you made less in 2020), you'll get more as a credit when you file next year.

#3620 10 months ago
Quoted from sataneatscheese:

Oil futures crashed a third overnight... A barrel of oil is now... about $11. I am 33 years old. In my entire life oil has only been cheaper than that about 6 months. Going to be an interesting day on the market. What happens when the demand for oil is so low there is no place to store it?
Good thing I bought OXY week before last at $15 a share. Going to be holding onto that one for a little while I expect.

Technically $11 is true, but it's a little misleading as that's the May contract that's about to expire. The June contract is still around $23. So in a couple days will the headline be that oil is up over 100% from $11 to $23?

#3622 10 months ago
Quoted from taz:

I wonder which oil stocks might be worth a good buy today? OXY, CVX, HAL, XOM? Do any of you plan to tip your toes into these waters today?

XOM got down to $30 a month ago. Now it's up $10 from there while oil is much lower. Still paying a 8% dividend for now. I own it in the mid 50s. Not planning to add any more, but not selling either.

#3623 10 months ago

Probably worth a gamble that the June contract could drop 50% in a month if the storage problem doesn't get better.

#3625 10 months ago
Quoted from Spyderturbo007:

I’ve seen USO thrown around in this thread. It looks like a fund as opposed to a stock. Does that just mean it invests in oil futures and I buy it like a stock? Similar to how my 401k funds work?
I was thinking of buying some USO but don’t want it to expire or something weird to happen that I don’t know about.

USO is based on oil futures, so it's always selling the current month futures and buying the next month futures to roll them forward. With the May futures at half the price of the June futures, it's kind of like it's selling oil at $11 and buying it back at $23. I over-simplified, but you can read more about it here. It's a losing bet most of the time.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4338311-betting-on-higher-oil-prices-uso-is-not-right-vehicle

#3630 10 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

What I read a couple of weeks ago was that XOM was going to be selling some "stuff" for lack of a better word. It sounded like XOM considers its dividend sacrosanct.
But many times a stock has a high dividend for a reason. 8% sounds like a too good to be true story. I mean, why aren't the pros bidding this stock up with low yields on everything else ?

I've listened to their CEO talk about the dividend a few times. What they do is during bad times they pay the dividend with debt, then during good times they pay the debt back down. So their balance sheet is a tool to keep the dividend safe and growing. That will work until it doesn't, but they've raised their dividend for 37 consecutive years, so they've been through several downturns already.

Anybody up for a trip to Canada? Apparently they're paying people $3/barrel to take their oil right now.

#3634 10 months ago

Two hours in to the trading day and the XLE (S&P energy sector fund) is up

#3641 10 months ago
Quoted from sataneatscheese:

Oil now $2 a barrel.

If I had a swimming pool, I'd fill it with oil right now. Is that legal?

#3645 10 months ago

It got down to a penny...

And now negative 8.61 a barrel. Crazy.

#3646 10 months ago

Wouldn't FDX and UPS be great buys here? Most purchases are online with everybody stuck at home and oil is free so gas prices would give them a boost.

#3648 10 months ago

It closed at -37.63. You get paid 37630 to take 1000 barrels of oil.....

#3670 10 months ago
Quoted from kpg:

The reason oil went negative today is actually because of USO. Check out this article
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2020/04/20/the-us-oil-etf-uso-is-the-culprit-behind-oils-massive-plunge/
Notice the speculative part that says the Fed could start buying USO.. which is very possible. Don't fight the fed right?

That article is just flat wrong. He is saying the May contract went down today because of USO, but USO hasn't owned any of the May contract in over a week. It currently owns 20% July and 80% June.

USO would have been slaughtered today if they still owned May.

Here's their roll schedule. April 13th was the last day they owned any May contracts.

roll (resized).JPG
#3672 10 months ago
Quoted from kpg:

Very true but I think the point is by USO rolling those contracts over they may have triggered the domino effect for what we saw today. The problem is the June contracts which I believe they need to sell in a couple weeks, if those trade at $0 or negative then USO is technically worth $0 right now. I don't see that happening but who knows, any plays on oil right now are very high risk and speculative.
I am in USO for a bounce then I am out. If I am wrong I dont have a ton of cash invested in options (which is why I own calls vs the stock itself) so my downside risk is minimized.
I wish I understood the mechanics of USO, I just have used it as a trading vehicle over the years when oil came up on my trading radar from time to time.

Yah I read they recently had to change their structure because of huge inflows. There's some limit, either in their charter or legally, to how much of a particular contract they could own. The inflows pushed them over that limit so that's why they currently have some July in addition to the June. Historically they would have been 100% June right now.

#3715 10 months ago

Those oil ETFs like USO are pretty much a scam in this environment. If you understand how they work you'll understand why. Lets say the spot price of oil is $10. USO is based on future contracts. Now lets say the June contract is $10 and the July contract is $20. As the days go by, USO is selling at $10 and buying at $20. Every day that they roll contracts forward a month, they lose money even if spot price of oil stays the same. Move forward a month, July has finally sunk to $10 and August is $20. Now they're selling July at $10 and buying August at $20. It's like swimming upstream. Over a long enough time, they will likely go to zero.

#3716 10 months ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Those oil ETFs like USO are pretty much a scam in this environment. If you understand how they work you'll understand why. Lets say the spot price of oil is $10. USO is based on future contracts. Now lets say the June contract is $10 and the July contract is $20. As the days go by, USO is selling at $10 and buying at $20. Every day that they roll contracts forward a month, they lose money even if spot price of oil stays the same. Move forward a month, July has finally sunk to $10 and August is $20. Now they're selling July at $10 and buying August at $20. It's like swimming upstream. Over a long enough time, they will likely go to zero.

This goes for nearly all commodity ETFs. Most are based on futures contracts and future prices are almost always higher than current prices. I believe a few like SLV and GLD literally hold the commodity (silver and gold in this case), so you don't have those futures losses. There's no ETF that holds hundreds of millions of barrels of oil in storage somewhere.

#3719 10 months ago

This is from the USO prospectus

uso1 (resized).JPGuso2 (resized).JPG
#3721 10 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

You make it sound like USO was a sham that was setup just to generate trading commissions. I will not disagree.
[quoted image]

Absolutely. The little guy wanted a way to invest in oil, so they invented one. At least it's not leveraged. They're meant for a very short term directional bet, preferably intraday.

#3725 10 months ago
Quoted from Zablon:

So, basically oil prices are rigged, along with all the BS we are fed yearly about 'quantity'. The world really needs to get away from dependence on oil money. They make record profits, how is it they can't go a month or two on lower demand? They don't need to be pumping constantly, they have no problems shuttering production when it's convenient for them. Sorry, having trouble feeling any empathy with all these billionaires and how they run their companies.

My understanding is that the shale producers can't just flip a switch and stop pumping. They are literally paying people to take the oil they pump in some cases because that's cheaper than the cost to shut down a well. It's absurd and really messes up the laws of supply and demand. Those producers need to go bankrupt and not be able to continue business during bankruptcy.

#3729 10 months ago
Quoted from mcluvin:

And who gets to buy the bankrupt shale producers' assets? Saudis, Chinese, and Russians? Dont think we want that.
It certainly is a tangled web. Seems a great opportunity to beef up the strategic reserve at least.

I agree the assets have to stay in the US as it's a strategic asset and security risk, but let the major players like Exxon and Chevron buy them for pennies on the dollar. Then they can let the oil fields sit unused until demand returns.

#3788 10 months ago

I won't pretend to understand gamma completely, but it has something to do with how the big dealers are positioned via options. I see articles about it every few weeks and they're pretty spot on with predicting future market moves. S&P at 2800 is right in a neutral gamma zone and that's why it's kind of stuck there right now. If the market goes up a bit from here, it will keep going up because the dealers with be forced to keep buying. Likewise if it goes down a little from here, it will force more selling. With the Fed on the bulls side, odds are in the favor of more gains unless there's some really bad news that can overcome that upward bias.

#3816 10 months ago
Quoted from swampfire:

I sold my 150 DIS today, for a $1600 loss. Between DIS and DAL, I’m out a Stern Pro. Lesson learned: don’t get so excited about the dividend that you ignore what’s actually happening to the company.

Interesting. I don't like airlines, but I think Disney is still a steal here. Wasn't there an article a few weeks ago that said at these levels, the stock is valued at the value of Disney+ by itself, with the theme parks, cruises, etc as a free bonus? I have a couple hundred shares a little higher and no intention of selling.

#3823 10 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

All Walmart employees now have to wear a mask. Trouble is that more than half the customers in the store think it does not apply to them. It will only get worse as the heat comes on. So all you can do is hope for a summer reprieve from this virus.

I can only comment from my weekly Saturday morning Walmart run. The cashiers and greeters has masks on, but the workers in the produce section, stocking shelves, and gathering pickup orders weren't wearing masks. Customer use seemed to peak at around 50% two weeks ago. This week I'd say customer mask use was down to around 25%. I go right when they open with the old folks that should be wearing them.

#3825 10 months ago
Quoted from swampfire:

There are rumors that they may not reopen the parks until 2021.

If the parks are valued at zero towards the stock price, does it matter if they don't open until 2021? Sure it limits the upside, but shouldn't hurt the downside.

#3847 10 months ago
Quoted from swampfire:

...unless they represent an index, like VOO or VUG or VIG.

Agreed. Or sector ETFs are probably fine. It's the leveraged ETFs and commodity ETFs that are made to fleece investors.

An index ETF is the same as a mutual fund, with the added benefits of lower fees and being able to be traded any time during the day, not just at the closing price at the end of the day.

#3883 10 months ago
Quoted from Concretehardt:

Looks like AMZN shit the bed, was down $160.00 per share after hours... Let see what Apple does here in a few minutes.

That was pretty expected. They were up $800/share off the lows and their delivery times and margins have been awful the last couple months. Stuff I'm ordering that usually takes 2 days with prime is now taking 2-3 weeks.

My home phone went bad two weeks ago and I tried to order a new one. They were in stock, but since phones aren't essential, they wouldn't ship it until May 10th, so I bought it from Best Buy instead and got it in 2 days. Ordered a new toaster 12 days ago, also in stock, and it won't ship until May 4th. I might as well cancel my prime since I'm not getting any benefit out of it.

#3909 10 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

We have a major hub here - so not sure what the problem is. Ordered some stuff April 16th and won't be here (estimate) until the 7th. Guess that would be like 3 weeks.

I said the same yesterday. I just ordered a CD and a pair of slippers. Both in stock. Both won't arrive for about 10 days even with prime. If I look at something like food, that gets here in 2 days since it's "essential".

#3910 10 months ago
Quoted from loneacer:

I said the same yesterday. I just ordered a CD and a pair of slippers. Both in stock. Both won't arrive for about 10 days even with prime. If I look at something like food, that gets here in 2 days since it's "essential".

There is a trick to it though. If you order something non-essential, then do another order for something essential, sometimes your non essential item will get shipped faster if they can ship it from the same warehouse as the essential item.

#3912 10 months ago

Did Elon finally lose his mind today?

elon (resized).JPG
#3916 10 months ago
Quoted from Concretehardt:

I wish I understood options well enough to do something like that.
Lucky for me I don’t have to worry about losing much $$.. most of you probably have more in your cars ashtray than my net worth

There's not much to it. He's saying to sell the Boeing January 2021 $130 put for $30.

What that means is if the price is below $130 in January, you are forced to buy 100 shares, but with your $30 discount, you're getting them for $100 a share. If it's above $130 in January, you keep $30 * 100 = $3000 profit for your time.

#3928 10 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

Oh, yeah. Buffett sold all of his airline stocks. He is back on train time.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-says-berkshire-sold-its-entire-position-in-airlines-because-of-the-coronavirus.html
“I don’t know that three, four years from now people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year,” he said. “You’ve got too many planes.”
"Prior to 2016, Buffett had eschewed airline investments and had been so opposed to putting money into the industry in the past that he told shareholders in a 2007 note that “if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.” .....

That was pretty sneaky what he did a few weeks back, selling just enough of his airline shares to drop under 10% ownership so he didn't have to disclose future sales. Then he sold it all.

#3948 10 months ago
Quoted from Concretehardt:

Me after seeing that Disney had a huge earnings miss, cut their dividend and the stock is up today..[quoted image]

They were already down 1/3 from their high. They are reopening one of the Chinese parks this week. They are profitable and the dividend cut is a positive for preserving cash. $100 is a fair price.

#3956 10 months ago
Quoted from Concretehardt:

Anyone have thoughts on PHYS for
a gold play?

Seems reasonable to me. I kind of like closed-end funds, especially when they trade at a discount to NAV. PHYS is backed by actual physical gold, which GLD is not. Fees are a little high. Has some positives over GLD.

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/10/10/the-best-gold-etfs-to-profit-from-a-rebound-in-gol.aspx

#3981 10 months ago
Quoted from barakandl:

I thought about trying to work the best deal on the car price by letting them think they are going to make $$$$ on financing then just paying it off completely in the first month.

I did this as well. They had an extra cash off offer, $750 more off, but only if you financed through them. I did that, then paid off the balance after a couple months.

#4040 10 months ago
Quoted from taylor34:

Is Disney even a buy here? The 5 year chart basically shows them at $120 in 2015, then going nowhere for 4 years, up last year a lot but now they're basically not any lower than they were in Jan of 2019. Is this company better off than early 2019 now? Looking past the theme park issue, they're going to have content issues going forward, and the big Marvel and Star Wars things have played out. Sports may be down for a while too.
I don't see a $107 stock here. I see a company that's going to struggle going forward for a while, and it may be 3 or 4 years before they get back to last year's heights. I guess my thought is, why take a chance on a company that's going to struggle for quite a while and isn't even really priced that cheap, when you can buy things like Apple that have craploads of cash and aren't going to suffer like Disney as much.

There was no Disney+ in Jan 2019. It launched in November 2019. With 50+ million subscribers already, I'd argue Disney is much better off now than they were in early 2019. It's turning into a Netflix competitor that also happens to have theme parks as a side business.

#4092 9 months ago
Quoted from sataneatscheese:

Prediction: Dow up 800+ points today (5/18).

That's cheating when the futures are already up 700.

#4095 9 months ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

With the Moderna vaccine trial news it is not a very bold prediction.

Yep. They spiked on that news over an hour ago.

dow (resized).PNG
#4096 9 months ago

It'll probably sell on the news and end red. It's been stuck in this range for weeks and it's right at the top of the range now. Hopefully not.

#4100 9 months ago
Quoted from loneacer:

There was no Disney+ in Jan 2019. It launched in November 2019. With 50+ million subscribers already, I'd argue Disney is much better off now than they were in early 2019. It's turning into a Netflix competitor that also happens to have theme parks as a side business.

Disney is now up 20% in under a week.

#4116 9 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

If I ever had any doubt that the market is rigged, I doubt no more.
P/E ratios don't count
None of the numbers count.
Right now the only number that counts is 2020.
Home Depot has recovered ALL of it losses and about to set a new high.
[quoted image]

Why would HD be worse off now than they were 4 or 5 months ago? People stuck at home are spending a fortune upgrading their homes and fixing up their yards and landscaping. Home Depot's costs are up quite a bit from dealing with the pandemic, but their sales have soared.

I'd maybe argue that a year from now will be worse. Once everybody has finished remodeling, they won't need to do it again anytime soon.

#4117 9 months ago
Quoted from swampfire:

Who’s brave enough to short this? I’m just going to stay short (under-invested).

I don't even know where I stand now. I have some longs. I have some shorts. I've sold both puts and calls. I think I'd do best if the market just drifted in this range or maybe 5% or so lower for a few months. My brokerage account is still overweight long. It has some positions I'd like to get out of soon that are just 5-10% below my costs. I sold out of some of my dividend payers like MMM, CVS, and KHC. Sold KHC at a small loss on Thursday after holding it for about 15 months only to watch it rise 10% in 3 days since. Lots of cash being freed up for higher quality investments.

Three of my IRAs are now up for the year and 100% cash. In all of those, I've sold puts for the next few months laddered down 5-20%. That will force me to buy back in gradually at lower levels, or collect premiums if the market doesn't drop.

1 week later
#4180 9 months ago
Quoted from investingdad:

Based on the morning futures, it's beginning to look more and more like a 3 month wealth transfer.
The unpleasant woman Suze Orman was bragging about how much cheap stock she bought while giving very different advice to her adherents during all this.
I'm happy to say that nobody profited off of me via panic selling.

Agreed, but the indexes are a bit deceiving. There's a ton of individual stocks still down 25% or more while the indexes are barely down 10%.

1 week later
#4274 9 months ago
Quoted from pinlink:

I was coming here to ask the same thing!
What is left that is still "in the ditch"?

Possibly REITs if you can stand the volatility? REITs like SPG and SKT are up 100% from their lows and still down 50% from where they were in February. They also pay 10-15% yield at the current prices (down from 20-30% at their bottoms). If you believe in the reopening story, they're a good buy. I think SKT said their mall traffic is already back to 80% of normal in some states.

#4281 9 months ago
Quoted from Oaken:

SKT has been a rollercoaster for sure. Lots of money to be made/lost in the volatility. Dividend got suspended as I recall.

Correct. It's postponed. To qualify as a REIT, they have to pay out something like 90% of their profits as dividends, so I imagine if business returns to normal faster than expected there will be a larger and/or special dividend at the end of the year to make up for the quarterly suspension.

#4350 9 months ago

The DOW is still up 7500 points and the S&P up 900 points from the March lows and people are freaking out about a couple of down days. The Fed doesn't need to step in and do anything extra right now. If it drops 50% from here, then they'll probably start buying S&P ETFs, but we're a long way from there. Keep some dry powder and buy good stocks at discounts.

#4380 8 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

That happened with Eastman Kodak. EK has been replaced by KODK and a complete new body of shareholders. One day you had ownership and the next day you had zero. All legal.
Yellow Freight, YRCW, kept its call symbol, but changed it name to YRC Worldwide and took all of the shareholders for a ride.

Hertz is in bankruptcy and it came out yesterday they want to sell up to a billion dollars in stock to clueless buyers that will soon be worth zero.