Anyone here trade the market? We are currently nearing Dow 20K and thought this would be a good time to make a thread and see what other pinheads trade or invest in the market.

I am a short term trader, with about 90% of my trades lasting less then a week. I have been doing this for almost 15 years now.

As of today, I have decided to short the stock market here using the DXD ETF (long a large position at $14.00 even) and also using TVIX (ETF that tracks VIX futures, not the VIX itself - highly risky and not an investment ETF by a longshot) avg of $10.17. I will sell on a big spike / market decline and lock in profit, or cut losses quickly if I am wrong (stop loss at $13.00 on DXD and $9.00 on TVIX)

Currently the Dow is at its most overbought levels I have seen in many years, and DXD is the most oversold I have seen it.

The Fed meeting going on between today and tomorrow should result in a rate hike, which is supposedly priced in. I am expecting a 'sell the news' scenario and a large pullback.

Good luck to anyone long in the market right now.. in my opinion, today would be a great day to sell and buy back on a bigger pullback. It should be getting turbulent out there very soon.

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
-Warren Buffet

Smart man ! I guess it depends on which mutual funds you are in as well, as some funds are hedged with short positions- but I can see why this strategy would work, although gains are much lower. I average about 15-20% per year, and some even higher - but a lot of work goes into swing trading.

I'll show you what happened from a technical standpoint today, and why I feel the market is in a 'Blow Off Top' stage of the rally. This is where everyone crams into the trade because of euphoria.. people who feel they may have missed a lot of the run, but are still overly confident there is more gains to be made, and their greed takes over vs logic.

This demand at the tail end of a big rally is called an 'exhaustion gap'. This is where smart money sells into this big demand, gapping the market up via stock futures- and also people go short. The reason for this is the risk vs reward now favors the downside vs upside.

Also, one of my favorite indicators of overbought/oversold conditions is the RSI (14) indicator on a daily chart. Here you can see the RSI approaching the 90 area. Anything over 85 is extremely rare.

You will also notice a significant deviation from where the current market is at versus the 50d MA (the blue moving average line in the chart) - the largest deviation I can find on the Dow chart since 2010.. almost 7 years ago. This is very dangerous to go long here.. even if there are some more small gains to be had.

Here is the current chart:

DIA (resized).png

A graphic I found via Google images showing an exhaustion gap (in the actual market indexes huge gaps shown like this are rare, but a gap is a gap):

exhaustiongap (resized).png

Scottrade was recently acquired by TD Ameritrade, so in the next 6-8 months you will likely see their IT teams transition and integrate their website and trading platform into TDA. I would suggest opening an account with TDA and avoid the transition.

Also, if you dont already have a Roth IRA account- that is a good place to start trading, as your capital gains are not taxed and it simplifies your profit/loss paperwork when filing taxes. It also reduces the amount you will trade with, keeping you more disciplined and taking on less risk at first. It also forces you to trade with cash only, and no margin- and you must wait until trades settle before you trade with the funds you just received from sold stock. That might not make sense now, but its an excellent safe guard for new traders and investors..

Excellent advise !!! You are very right. That's why when I trade I only go off extreme technical indicators, and not averages or middle-of-the-road indicators as I call them. Much too hard to predict.

In fact risk management is the utmost importance when I trade.

My winning ratio is only around 65-70% at best... I take loses 30%+ of all trades I open. It's simple - set stop losses and know your max loss in a trade that has a lot of upside potential (or vice versa if in a short)

Example, I'll risk losing $.75/share in order to gain a potential $1.75-2.50 or more per share. You can be wrong 50% of the time and still be profitable that year, but you must always abide by your risk/reward strategy, period. Much more riskier then the some of the more conservative investment stategies mentioned here.

I'm very impressed so far with many responses in this thread- I felt it was a good subject to discuss and many people in this hobby seem very intelligent and financially savvy, seeing that we are all here discussing high priced toys that not many people would spend this kind of money on

Exactly - that's why my wife and I have 30yr term policies.. mine will terminate at age 65, hers at age 60. They are in place in the event something happens to us while raising kids and we still owe money on our mortgage. This way they would have everything needed for college and to support them until their early 20's. Once they grow up and are at the age to support themselves, those life insurance policies won't matter too much..

Short trade is working here.. but I wont count my chickens before they hatch. Waiting to see if we can get some selling pressure into the close to confirm a reversal into tomorrow.

Hoping people are "buying the dip" today, so they can panic sell on another dip tomorrow.. we'll see .. tomorrow is key to confirm a reversal and give back some of the 2100+ pts on the Dow gained in only a month on pure speculation.

Good for you man. You sound like a great dude.

Trust me. Do not EVER mess with penny stocks. You are better off going to Vegas and tossing your money in a slot machine, playing blackjack, betting on roulette, etc then messing with those scams.

I was a former penny stock promoter... long story.. but trust me on this.. every one of those companies are a scam and have nothing but a great story behind them so people will buy shares as they are dumping.

Negative.. I never did the dumping... its the people behind the shell companies who have BS shares. They trick and lie to investment marketing people to get them on board with their scam. We got screwed too. Long story, you would have to know all the moving parts on how that works. If I was part of that shady business the last thing I would do is admit it here. I simply ran an investment marketing firm and companies approached us to help build awareness campaigns for their companies newly added to the OTC markets.

I am still in the Dow short trade here- lots of selling pressure came in yesterday, but there is some consolidation and a bounce today which means people are still not scared yet. The DIA chart here (Dow) must stay under the former high or else I will close this position to avoid risking another market breakout. I am currently down $650 or so on my trade so far. If I am wrong I will simply take the loss and wait for another setup. Always always take your loss quickly if you are wrong and your trade setup works against you.

What are your favorite REITS to own?

The ones I have typically bought and held were AGNC, ARR, and NLY. They used to pay a much higher dividend, especially AGNC... but they still pay out very nicely and with rising rates, I expect them to rebalance their portfolios and increase the dividend slowly but surely- we'll see.

Thanks man. I could never trust the advice of someone who claims to be right all the time and never take losses. It's part of the game.. the only way to win is to know how to manage losing when it happens. Cut the loss and be patient for another setup.. there's no perfect/fail proof way to do it!

Closed out my TVIX position as the market isnt doing much here - still holding DXD and seeing how the market shakes out

Dow finally hit 20K ! Nice. Took a long time to finally do it..

Anyone like XOM here? With Trump trying to roll us back in time and get the oil industry up and running vs renewable energy, oil companies could see a big rebound soon. Maybe even SLB would be another good play..

Wow I can't believe this thread is still going.

I'm not kidding. I haven't even checked it in almost the 3 years since I started it. Crazy. Obviously a lot has happened since then and I've been short and long many times. As I mentioned in my OP, TVIX and VXX ETFs have been a favorite of mine.

Last couple months have been all about trading highly volatile VXX calls, and even TVIX but I'll admit I missed a good chunk of the $13 to $1,000/share rip it had during all this volatility.

When this COVID crisis starts to flatten we'll see the market recover a ton.

Dow 17K is major support at the moment so we might see some movement there before a short term rally, but overall this is a bear market and the long term outlook from here is obviously foggy.

I am looking into highly risky long term plays this week.

Restaurant / Hospitality stocks that were previously uptrending and took a massive dump during all this.

Anyone else looking in that sector, or even others? I'm looking at the following for long term bets on a recovery:

DENN
RRGB
DRI
BLMN
RCL
CNK
TACO (although was downtrending before CV)
TXRH
RUTH
EAT
YUM
JACK
MAR
MGM
PENN
PFGC
STKS
SPCE (long term speculative)

Also some other large caps which I have already nibbled on Friday and will buy a little more here and there this week and next:

AXP
BA
CTL
WFC
XOM
AAPL
ULTA
AGNC
ARR
NRZ
APTS
CZR

Any you guys are looking at ? Some amazing opportunities there.. cheap...but as we all know... Cheap can become even cheaper with all this uncertainty...

If anyone is looking for a potential lotto play betting on a full recovery after this mess, a stock that can rip 300-500% in the next year, look at STKS (One Group Hospitality) they own the high end STK steakhouse chains and Kona Grills. Their revenues have been rising year over year, and were $4.50+ before this mess, and currently sitting around ~$0.90/share.

Totally speculative but when this recovers this stock will blast off IMO.

Back in early 2009, before the massive bull market rally start in March '09, people thought the entire banking system was going to fail and we were going to buy things with silver and gold coins. Everyone was the most scared they have ever been.

Then hope sets in.. hope and faith the world will move along and things will recover. Once the fear has settled in, hope can begin to rise.

I truly believe this week is when that will occur, but ultimately, it may only be short lived until the next reason to knock this market down to new lows.

AAPL $220 technical support looks very solid right now.

I'm in at $218.20 avg price right now after todays drop below that.. tons of buying (and possible short covering) volume under that level. Plus, it lost its "Trillion Dollar Company" status which some consider a good area to buy shares as well, as we all know AAPL will be in that category eventually again anyway.

In order to make the biggest reward, you must take the biggest risk. If you think years and not months, we will all wish we put as much money as possible into these depressed equities today.

Their cash holdings is what keeps them where they are, and also the fact they have no debt.

When the market corrects and de-leverages equities, stocks with debt (regardless of future earnings) are then factored into the share price which accelerates their correction.

Since AAPL has zero debt and a ton of cash, it's a no-brainer to accumulate at these levels IMO. Apple makes so much off their services including apps, and people will always buy AAPL products.. want a new iPhone and Coronavirus is still around? Have them ship it to you. The demand for Apple products because of a virus is not affected IMO.. if anything, more will want to buy more devices if working from home, video conferencing, classroom streaming, etc.

I loaded up on BA under $100

This thing was $350+ only a couple months ago.

The 737MAX issues were priced in long ago, then this virus issue hit. Trump just pumped the company up during his presser too.

Boeing will survive. It has to survive. And anyone investing in this company long term right here at these levels will be so glad they did one day.

Bought those yesterday on open after I mentioned them here, up 50%+ on both Cbarrel and Red Robin and 30%+ on RUTH Today

Look into STKS as well, market hasn't noticed this undervalued hospitality play yet. Hit 76 cents yesterday which is ridiculous.

Yes,

But on the flip side the inverse happens after fear and panic selling.

With TSLA, that was greed and panic buying - either buyers rushing to buy so then don't "miss out" and shorts panic buying because they are losing their asses getting squeezed.

The market just suffered it's most violent panic selling sessions in history

Absolutely.

Just read about the beginning of the biggest bull market rally that began in March 2009, because the Obama Admin began a $1T stimulus. Sound familiar to what's happening today?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bear_market_of_2007%E2%80%932009

The catalyst was Model Y deliveries were upcoming, and the China factory opening and surging with business, along with better than their normal (garbage) earnings lol

Tough to tell now, that 18K area could have likely been capitalization and an exhaustion gap down, so it would be very tough to see that area hit again in the short term unless some major unexpected news hits.

Also, we are now seeing analysts come out and upgrade certain stocks from Sell to Neutral (and quite a few move to Buy recs) and move price targets which indicates to me institutions and funds have bought in the last few sessions and betting on a recovery from here.

As we saw 11 years ago, quantitive easing and federal injection of liquidity, bond purchasing, and mortgage backed security investing helped propel the market from it's lows and we're seeing that same thing happen (but even bigger numbers)

So let's say betting against the market right now would be a bad bet, in my opinion.

The markets are always forward looking

Last month they were pricing in bankruptcies and a total disaster of epic proportions, and forward thinking was the worst case scenario which scared people.

Today, they are pricing in hope for a potential recovery based on what the Fed is doing. Traders trying to get ahead of the curve and not wait for it. So now traders are betting that the worst may be priced in.

That's not to say we don't see a pullback after today's big rally, but big dips will likely be bought up now, providing support and a floor which seems is Dow 18K and possibly now 20K.

Absolutely.

By playing the market now it's high risk but high reward potential. Need to stomach the wild swings we will get.

Hope sentiment can change on a dime at any moment and you need to be prepared for that.

Any worse virus news that hits can change that hope sentiment quickly.

So I say for now, buy on big pullbacks and sell on big rips around your core long term holdings.

Example I sold 50% of all the stocks I mentioned the other day that I am up 30-60% on. Keeping 50% in case it runs more but if it pulls back I'll buy back the 50% again. Preserving gains and capital during the wild times we're in is key.

Especially with this chart making exponential / parabolic gains to the upside. With the virus, oil crashing, unemployment numbers spiking (I believe jobless numbers on Thurs can be a catalyst for a pullback), and being an election year - buckle up for some volatile moves.

3d40db145cbd3eacd93d3983d84c961df330da19.jpg

Here's the technical reason I bet on this week being a bit of a relief rally (note, still in bear market as of now)

1) Dow Weekly chart (4 year chart shown here) was significantly oversold - more than I have seen in over 10+ years, as far as a weekly time frame goes. The RSI is circled at the top of the chart

2) Technical support around Dow 17/18K as indicated by the red line, and where buyers stepped up and we saw a reversal in yesterday's session.

3) Looking for a volatile move FIRST to Dow 22K and testing the resistance shown initially, then a test of the 200d SMA which is around 23-24K (where it will likely fail initially)

4) If there is a retest of Dow 18K you buy up again because its a great risk/reward entry level there, tons of support.

Some background, I have been day trading the markets since 1998 and I base all my calls off short term moves as no one can predict the future long term as we all saw. Good luck out there.
tempsnip.png

Absolutely. Leveraged ETFs are typically day trading vehicles or used as hedges. They decay over time due to re-balancing and other factors. They trick people as well, as their charts are completely inaccurate long term because they drop to almost nothing again, then they split into big numbers and decay to almost nothing.. rinse/repeat. Likely OILU will split here soon because of how low it has gone.

Example, TVIXs split history:

TVIX Split History Table
Date Ratio
12/21/2012 1 for 10
08/30/2013 1 for 10
06/23/2015 1 for 10
08/09/2016 1 for 25
03/16/2017 1 for 10
06/08/2018 1 for 10
12/02/2019 1 for 10

2X and 3X ETFs are NEVER a good idea to invest in long term. Get in, get out win or lose.

Dow is close to my first resistance level at Dow 22K, I just sold every stock I bought this week for 40-75% profits. Sold half my BA @ $173 today, half my AAPL @ $254 and holding only those for now.

Expecting a big pullback once ugly unemployment numbers hit tomorrow.

It's not totally out of the cards to see Dow 18K again by next week.

Now, if we rally on jobs numbers and close over 22K, a move to 23-23.5Kish could happen but unlikely.

I bought VXX Calls right now betting on more volatility to come.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some move to try and conceal those numbers tomorrow.. which wouldn't be good either.. we'll see. I don't see any of this ending up putting us on a long term bear market like 2008, but as a trader (and not necessarily an investor) my views can change rapidly. Right now that's how I feel.

Going to throw this out there for you guys with a long term vision.. and if willing to play on the higher risk side for a potential higher reward.

I nibbled on some of this at $3.45 today, do your own due diligence and see if this is something you guys see value in long-term. I just stored it in my Roth IRA for the future myself.

ARCO

Arcos Dorados Holdings
4.06% annual dividend (although current market conditions may change this)

Here's from their Wikipedia:

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is McDonald’s largest franchisee in the world in terms of systemwide sales and number of restaurants.[3] As of December 31, 2010, it represented 6.7% of McDonald's franchised restaurants globally.[4] As the largest operator of McDonald's restaurants in Latin America and the Caribbean, it has more than 94,000 employees, being one of the region's leading employers of young, first-time job holders. It serves more than 4.3 million customers daily and is the largest quick service restaurant (QSR) chain in Latin America and the Caribbean.[3]

The company operates its McDonald’s-branded restaurants as company-operated restaurants and franchised restaurants.[4] Company revenues depend on sales made by company-operated restaurants and rental income from franchised restaurants. The rental income depends on the greater of a flat fee or a percentage of sales.[4]

Capture.JPG

Dow hit that 22K yesterday and tanked 1K points in 15mins so had to lock up those VXX calls for a little profit, today, I decided to buy them again about an hour ago at 22K and buyers came in and it wouldn't break down so I took a loss there so I'm even. I always cut my losses quick when the trade goes against me.

It seems that since 22K seems to have been broken my next target close to 23K-ish may be the next resistance level. That is major resistance - 22K was a curb, and 23-23.5K is a brick wall. I'll be buying DIA puts and VXX calls there again and selling on any big pullback.

Once we get a full reset I'm going in big again and buying everything long term. But we need a big move down to fill the gap below, so anyone buying here is risking it big time.

You can't predict how the market will move off news (like today's atrocious job claim numbers) so I stick to the technicals for direction to determine if I'm right or wrong.

Screenshot_20200326-084658_thinkorswim (resized).jpg

I think it's funny the GOP fought the Obama admin back in 2009 regarding the Auto industry bailouts, and Fox News and the GOP trashed Obama's method of using Quantitive Easing stimulus purchasing to stabilize and recover the markets.

He got tons of flack for adding to the budget deficit by doing so... And here we are today, the exact same strategy being employed by the current admin and supported by the GOP and are patting each other on the back today.

I'm more independent than anything and just trade based on what's happening today, but I have a great memory and it's interesting to see the 180° flip from the GOP on this. Farmers got a $28B bailout because of the tariff debacle, Boeing gets $17B, etc.

Not complaining as I agreed with that strategy in 2009 and I know it should work out again. It's just humorous to have witnessed such bashing of Obama doing the same thing, and today they sing praise and congratulate each other for the same thing they opposed.

Absolutely.

The fed has indicated they are willing to have "Unlimited" stimulus to do what they can.

Something stinks about all of this right now. Then they want to rush the opening up of everything in a couple of weeks? Risk making matters worse rather than let the storm pass?

If this backfires, and chances are it will, then things can get uglier.. even faster than we saw a couple weeks ago. People have such short memories. They see green days in the stock market and all is well again... When it goes down they see blood. Amazing how the stock market can change a persons sentiment almost immediately. People seeing this rally over the last few days may even think the virus is going away now..

Agreed !!!

ARCO beginning a nice move today

Funny, I was just looking into BA options.

Problem is they (and many other stocks) have their IV (Implied Volatility) so pumped up if there is any sideways/slow directional movement that IV collapses and you lose anyway. Market makers love stealing money from pumped up IV in options. IV is such a huge component of options trading.

With that said, the same is happening with VXX and I went long with a VXX Call Spread. Sold the $57 Calls and bought the $50 calls. I take the premium from the $57 calls and then apply that to the purchase of the $50 calls. Goal is to take advantage of the pumped IV of the $57s and see a slower rise over $50.

Its tough to explain typing here but if anyone is interested, Google "Vertical Bull Call Spread" - options are tricky and I tell many people to avoid them entirely especially during volatile times.

In regards to your BA puts, if BA tanks big time, then those options will rip. Let's face it... it's flying pretty high after my $96 entry only last week.

I think we are heading for that real brick wall for sure, I mentioned first target was Dow 22K which was a small curb to get over, but the 200d moving average on the Dow Weekly Chart is major resistance. I will be betting it will reverse course around that area for sure. No doubt, that's the real test if this is a bear market- if it closes above that, then this would be a straight up monstrous rally and I just don't see that.

I'll be honest if we can fill in that gap down to Dow 18K again, it should massively reverse and thats where i'll be going all in the long side.

Here's the current chart in blue of where I think it *can* go before hitting the brick wall. It's getting close.

tempsnip.png

Damn so Dow 22K *IS* acting like bigger resistance than I thought ! Total short fakeout .. but still, glad I sold all my longs. That's why I set up multiple resistance targets on my chart. Only thing here is since it didn't touch that 200d MA first at 23.5Kish, it makes things a bit unpredictable here. For now, I'm using that 22/22.5K area for direction.. stay under, we head lower.. another close over it, bullish. It's a key area of resistance now.

My VXX call spread worked out so awesome today. Closed it for nice profits. Selling a ton of AAPL weekly put spreads for a net credit as they will expire worthless today

Good luck out there guys !

I had bought the April 50/57 call spread yesterday to sell today on a bigger move

I don't have a play on VXX right now set up, but the IV is so pumped on them selling spreads and having time decay on your side would be the better play, especially with the weekend coming you can take advantage of that extra Theta. But I'm out of VXX for now.

Wow.

That Dow ~22K area is no joke.

Lots of selling anytime the Dow gets over it.

Screenshot_20200327-135251_thinkorswim (resized).jpg

Here's a peak at what I did today to profit nicely, selling Put and Call spreads.

I sell them at X amount, expecting the stock to never rise or fall to the Strike price amount.

I get a ton of DMs and I appreciate them, but tough to get to all of them, so I just respectfully ask to not ask how to learn this strategy. It's very complex obviously. I've been doing it reliably for over a decade and for 90% profitable trades. The other 10% is typically breakeven or small losses as I always cut losing trades very quickly if they go red.

You'll notice where I sold them at a certain price, say 50 contracts @ $.28 each. That's a credit to me for +$1400. That's because each contact is 100 options. So, 50 = 5,000 x $.28 - there's another leg to that spread but to avoid confusion, my total credit paid to me is $0.28 per contract.

My expectation is that the strike price, say $235 a share, is not hit and they expire worthless.

You will see the current price is on the right, $0.00 as they expired worthless by close today

Easy money. I do this almost weekly if the IV - implied volatility is just right.
Screenshot_20200327-135632_thinkorswim (resized).jpgScreenshot_20200327-135644_thinkorswim (resized).jpg

This site is a great start, i'd also recommend YouTube videos for even better explanations of Short / Selling Call or Put spreads for a Credit

https://www.optionsplaybook.com/option-strategies/short-call-spread/

Funny you say that, many years ago I used to run a stock trading service and hosted a live chat room, put out daily training videos, and real time trading alerts.

My site/service was actually rated #1 and #2 for a couple of years on Investimonials. Hell, maybe even some people here were my clients hahah! Now that would be funny.

This was my newsletter:

https://investimonials.com/newsletters/reviews-prophet-alerts.aspx

Ultimately even though I had several hundred active users at any given time, it became way too stressful to make it worth my time.

I'd get a ton of emails, many people who didn't follow directions even though you gave them clear and cut instructions and they'd somehow still screw up the trade.

Id send an alert like "Buy AAPL at $135.25" then the next day, "Sell AAPL $143.73" (yep back then that was AAPLs price at the time, PRE SPLIT lol

So many people would lock in the profit and move along...

Then I'd get that one person... "Hey Kris, I decided to hold on and let it ride thinking it would go up more and didn't sell. Now they released their earnings and are down to $119/share. What should I do? I think I need to cancel because I lost a lot of money"

Things like that made me just keep all my stuff to myself and just trade on my own.. and I guess post here on this forum about stocks lol.

I'm also on Instagram if anyone wants to follow me, but it's mostly my car hobby page so you may not care haha

@xkpgx

STKS was such a win... Got in average around $.80 or so, sold half @ $1.49, and the rest at $1.99 yesterday!!! Glad you followed.

ARCO I should have sold some on that big pop the other day, but really, it's an amazing long term hold.

They are the largest McDonalds franchisee in the world... And their McDonalds are in Latin America and the Caribbean. Really, the only places the Coronavirus hasn't shut anything down yet their stock took a beating. $750m or so marketcap now... But $4B+ in revenue a year. When all this passes, this thing should rip.

At some point I may start a new service, but it would have to be a completely different format because it was so stressful to run it on a daily basis and it affected my own personal trading to be honest, so it's unlikely.

This is a bummer. I'm glad they are extending our annual passes, really cool of them. I take the kids to Disney sometimes on Fri or Sat nights to grab dinner and ride a couple rides, and I am starting to miss doing those things. Cabin fever is setting in... Can't wait until this is all over already.

100 represents how many options come in each contract, so 10 contracts = 1000 options, so if the contract is $.20, then each one costs $200 (or a credit to you for $200 if sold)

The W indicates it's a Weekly option, and it expired March 27th

Best time to sell hospitality stocks was when they spiked up 40-70% in 3 sessions last week, now I'm out and letting them come back down and settle. Really I'd love to see Dow 19K again or even 18K before going big on the long side again.

I'll be back in STKS if it can come down a bit ! It went up so much last week so dumped it. Great long term so I hope it can tank again haha

Like I said in my initial post there's so many variables it's crazy. So much.

But I did mention I'm selling Vertical Call spreads, as well as selling Vertical Put spreads

So by default, there's two legs executed at the same time, example, with AAPL last week:

When it tanked on the open I sold:

Vertical Put Spread on Weekly March 27 expiration
Sold the $235 Out of the money Puts for $0.37
Bought the $225 Out of the money Puts for $0.09
Net credit back to my account of $0.28

I sold 100 contracts of that spread and others that day. That means I risked $100,000 to make $2,800.

Now that's where people say holy hell! That's crazy! So dumb. And they are right . Why? Because they don't know how it works and it would be dumb if you don't know what your doing.

But my risk to lose that trade was for AAPL to collapse under $235/share by end of the trading day. If anyone knows AAPL, that would be a huge fall from it's low of the day which was around $248 or so when I sold those puts.

It was worth me putting up the capital to bet against AAPL closing over $235, which it did.

So then it went from $248 where I sold the vertical put spread and collected a nice premium due to a spike in Implied Volatility, then when it ripped back to $252 and $254 I did the opposite and sold 50 contracts of Weekly March 27 $270/275 strikes but CALLS instead of Puts. Sold the $270s and bought the $275s... Credit of $0.22 to me. If anyone has heard of an Iron Condor spread strategy I guess it's somewhat similar, but normal Iron Condors suck.. this is just a more optimized way of doing one.

All expired worthless so I keep the credit.

Yes you need a relatively large account to make decent money

Yes I could have lost in order to make $5875 on those trades Friday:

$136,000

BUT

Keep in mind. AAPL would have either had to close under $235 or over $270

Also, had I seen something to see id be wrong I'd close them out quickly to minimize my loss, usually when it's 50% of what I'm expecting to make. If I'm in the red $2500 already, I'm out. Period.

Both of which seemed impossible to me given the market resistance levels I've shown here on the charts I've posted.

A lot goes into it. It's not for the faint of heart and I don't recommend anyone doing this style of trading unless you know what you're doing. It's a style large hedge funds and firms use, but just at a smaller level.

Also,

I was doing some more research on ARCO and I'll be selling all of it on Monday no matter the price.

The company is strong fundamentally, the long term chart isn't as solid as I'd like and the more I think about it, the more I think if there's any rise in Coronavirus cases in Latin America or the Caribbean it could be significantly impacted. So I'd suggest if you're in it, sell it if you can get a little pop hopefully. Not to mention the market could get uglier next week as well.. I'll look to re-enter it when this is all over with.

You're welcome !! There's so many strategies and ways to invest/trade, and I have a few tools in my belt I've collected over the years of doing this so glad to share. Can't always promise I'll be right but I can always promise win or lose there's something to learn from me lol. Trust me, I've learned from so many mistakes I've made over the years. If someone claims they haven't lost or made mistakes they are lying

What I posted was just one of my strategies I do with weekly options, only if the setup is perfect. Lately it's been once a week at minimum for that particular trade thanks to the exaggerated premiums on options due to volatility.

I think like a Market Maker and try to ride on their coattails during this, and they want as many options to expire worthless as possible because that's how they make their money. So many variables.

Also a factor, AAPL is not able to execute their stock buyback until next month, so they weren't able to buy tons of shares at the end of the day like they sometimes do. Also, I look at the Open Interest at certain strikes vs the volume that day. If there's not much Open Interest on certain strikes until that Friday, now there's a ton of volume at those strikes- tells me some big fish out there is selling them and the Market Makers are going to want and 'pin' the stock between a certain area to have those options expire worthless.

This is just today, next couple of months will be different and I adjust my strategy again based on other market conditions I've traded. This is the way I trade during volatile markets. In less volatile markets, I go 1-2 months out and hold them longer and will close out at 50% profit or better or wait until they expire worthless but it might take longer.

Also, if the trade goes against me and I don't close them (which would be very undisciplined and dumb) then what can happen is someone can exercise the option I've sold and I'd be on the hook to buy those shares at X price from them. Well, seeing I had 100 contracts sold @ the $235 strike price, let's say I didn't close them and the stock collapsed to $230/share.

I'd have to buy 10,000 shares of AAPL at $235/share ($2.35M) from someone at a loss of $5/share which would be a $50,000 loss.

Obviously if it gets too close for my comfort I'll close before that ever happens, which has happened, and I've lost money of course in the past. Luckily very little compared to my overall gains.

Also, I'd never do this if earnings releases are close by or other news related factors could sway the stock.

Most brokers like mine also will force close your options if it hits their thresholds as well, I've had them close out trades without letting them expire worthless because they had a +/- $7 threshold on AAPL that if it moves X amount in a certain time period, they see it as risky, and will close you out win or lose. So there's that too.

Like I said, not for the faint of heart ! LOL

Why I trade

Because no one can predict where the overall market will be in the future

We can all say "the market will always go up"

But it can always go down much further. Then you buy at the wrong time and your cash it wrapped up for months or years for it to breakeven. If that ever happens.

Problem is you can have years of gains and lose them in an instant like we saw. Tough game. I found the way to make the most money is to put in some work (it's technically a second job) to get reliably paid.

Parking money forever and expecting to get rich is a tough gig in the stock market. Has to be a horrible feeling watching your profits rise slowly over the years and see them vanish in one month.

3X ETFs are an easy way to lose. They are the closest thing to gambling in the stock market, and they are designed as if Vegas casinos created them.. the house always wins.

Futures open in an hour. Tough to guess where as they are easily manipulated by relatively low volume, a large hedge fund can move them easily themselves it's pretty crazy.

But if they are showing a large gap down, look for initial panic selling and a bounce, or a huge gap up will likely fade.

Uncertain times we are in here guys.

Volatility is here to stay, with more pressure to the downside but likely very choppy swings. A traders dream. An investors nightmare.

Anyone think AAPL can close over $280 by Friday?

I don't.

Sold a ton of AAPL Weekly (April 3) Calls
Sold the $280s
Bought the $285's

Net Credit to me: $0.23
Goal is to expire worthless by Friday, or i'll close them them early if I can get 75% profit before.

Oh yeah,

Forgot to mention, bought 10000 BA @ $97 the other day
Sold at $180 the other day for $830,000 profit

J/K

This will cripple the already beaten down retail industry even further.

Any stock or company in a "pre-existing downtrend" prior to the Coronavirus is in big trouble. Creditors will be unwilling to extend credit lines and provide loans to keep them liquid. Macys, JC Penny, etc. may be headed down the Sears route sooner than expected after this- just a guess, but the risk is there.

Expected, range bound. Today up, tomorrow down? It will be in a range for a bit, less volatile up and down movements within a tight range is expected for now, Dow 23-23.5K target resistance still not off the table. Then.. more downside.

Because man, I don't want to make THAT much money

BBBY is such a bummer. Great niche retail business, destroyed by Amazon.com and other larger retail e-commerce like Walmart.com

Unfortunately, BBBY is a bankruptcy story unfolding before us. Before COVID they were hurting. After COVID, they are likely done.

I like it. Good luck!

Play on USO 15 mins I just got into

Sell July $5 Calls (200)
Buy Oct $5 Calls (200)

Net Debit: $0.26 ($5200)

Maximum profit on Call spread will be achieved by July if USO is near $5
Maximum loss would be if USO is under $3.00 thanks to the Puts as a small hedge

Not huge risky positions, but i'll add more in the next week. Just showing the initial setup.

EDIT: Removed the puts hedge I originally posted and closed puts out @ $0.83 for break even as I think oil prices will appreciate before July.

STKS down to $1

Nibbled on some at a buck for long term Will add on any more drops. Glad I sold when I did... traders game!

Ran a risk analysis on this

EXCELLENT play... 74% win rate... assuming AMZN is at $1900 by expiration, it has a 100% profit potential. I like it esp since I believe the market will be range bound.

But how did you get a fill on this without buying anything with the credit from selling the put spread? Did you buy the Call spread, or sell it?

Nah - I am not in enough to sell for that small amount. I'll hold as long as it takes for $2 again.

Ahh ok! I got it. Nice man, good luck, excellent probability of this winning.

Ask yourself this.. if you have a long term strategy, do you think the restaurant sector will recover? Namely, the ones that were strong financially and fundamentally pre-virus?

If so, and you think restaurants will survive, take that money out of those index options and find your favorite restaurant industry stocks and buy on large pullbacks. IMO, they will outperform any index fund by 300-400% in the next 12-24 months.

RRGB
DRI
BLMN
CBRL
STKS
DENN
PFGC
PLAY
RUTH
DNKN
JACK
EAT

Honorable mentions, for long term value investors as they are still in the Hospitality industry and affected:

CNK
CCL
RCL
VAC
HGV
MAR
WYNN
LVS
MGM

Note I am not saying start buying everything and get all in tomorrow, do your own due diligence, consult a financial advisor, etc. and determine how you should allocate your funds and to each one.

But IMO these will all bounce back when this shit is over... maybe not instantly... but over time they should.

Earlier today I mentioned a USO call spread I did which is essentially a long/bullish play using options. Or you could just go long the shares too. There are 2X and 3X leveraged ETFs you can do too...

or you can look into companies like XOM, CVX, OXY, COP, BP, etc. Those will all bounce back with oil.. OXY being the more risky one but having more upside potential (its also a good position size in Buffet's portfolio)

I think over 10 years you are fine with DIS and DAL.

My main concerns with DIS later this year, even after some upside recovering:

1) Igor is gone. Left right before COVID too. Bad timing really.. new CEO comes in during a massive fundamental change with this company

2) Movie production shut down... movies to be released, delayed and will have poor box offices. This definitely weighs on the stock, and will for the foreseeable future

3) DIS parks are all shut down.. for how long? When they reopen, will headcounts be the same right away? I dont think so. How long will "normal" attendance take?

4) DIS Dividend may be suspended because of this. Not sure how that could affect the shares (some say it could help.. some not)

DAL, same concerns above... but with air travel...

When the virus stuff is over.. then the market will turn to earnings reports again... and I think we can all guess how those earnings reports will look with companies like DIS and DAL.

I think we see a decent recovery then boom...

The real market correction when all of the economical data starts coming into focus post-virus fears.

Tough one here as I haven't been able to come up with a good risk/reward setup for VXX in the past week other than the one I did last week. VXX right now is very unpredictable, and when we get range bound like this I do not really touch VXX too much unless it's selling way out of the money Put spreads when it has accelerated selling, then selling way out of the money calls when it has accelerated buying. The problem is the Implied Volatility premiums have been bleeding from them so I don't have advice either way on this one right now.

If I was to help you with direction though, VXX and TVIX appear to been basing out for a move higher over the next session or two...

Let's not forget jobs numbers come out Thursday. Market went up last time and some gamblers might think that will happen again. My (total and absolute guess at this point) is the market does *not* react well this time and if the numbers come in worse, we have now established the beginning of an unfavorable trend.

Murky waters out there

I am busy selling out of the money weekly Put and Call spreads on AAPL any pop or drop I get here, with only a few days left for them to expire. Also, trading in and out of restaurant and hospitality stocks - as well as stuff like TSLA and BA - because they are nice and volatile. But those are so rapid fire no sense of making buy/sell calls in here lol

I'll say I did notice today... market sold off end of day.. and TMUS went up at the end... perhaps buying calls or selling puts (or going long the stock) may be something to look into...

Thought i'd mention regarding STKS and some research I did:

Last earnings call, they outlined the following:

1) Cash on hand $9.3M

2) $10M credit facility they can tap if their cash gets down to $4M

3) Cut staff payroll from 4,000 employees to 100 core employees (bummer, I know) minimizing payroll costs

4) Worked out many rent payment deferments with landlords of most STK locations, and working on others.

5) Have worked out net terms and deferred payments for food suppliers

6) Generate $300K-400K *per week* of takeout and delivery currently, utilizing only a couple of cooks and a general manager at those locations that offer it

7) Said for the "foreseeable future" the takeout and delivery services are providing enough cash flow to cover their payroll and do not anticipate a high cash burn rate, let alone need to even think of touching the $10m credit line.

In my opinion, the company management is awesome and when things return to normal STKS will bounce back massively and the current price is a huge discount for fundamentally strong and well managed business in the restaurant industry. Obvious a short term risk, but a long term investment opportunity as of today.

Disclosure: Long STKS

Simple answer: Kick these puppies in overdrive

639_hmim_intaglio_lg.jpg

Buying oil, incrementally, little by little at these levels is a great risk/reward. That's what I am doing.

(Long USO via Call spreads)

Definitely agree here, if wanting to get in for the long haul and hold forever, the sale isn't over and cheap stocks can get cheaper. Lots of people waiting to jump in at those low prices again, setting up for a nice double bottom and reversal. Dow 18/19K gap fill will happen quickly and bounce hard in my opinion.

The pandemic has forced many companies to implement remote access and virtual meeting / remote workplace solutions without much decision making or planning. In my opinion, it sped up the adoption of these technologies by several years. Crazy how this all works.

MSFT and Zoom technology are the best long term picks to take advantage of this.

Got into COST today as well, in my long term retirement account. They've held strong during all of this, and proven in a down economy they will continue to grow and prosper and investors aren't nervous to own them and institutions are only buying more shares.

Safe fundamentally strong companies are the best bet for you long term guys. Lower reward, less risk.

When NVDA can retest the $210 and $220s again I love that one for a play off VR and AI.

My neighbor is a big exec at Nvidia, head of their AI initiatives and I'll tell you this, they are working on game changing technology currently.

Agreed 1000%

COST over WMT all day any day - why?

I can't stand stepping foot into Wal Mart
Love shopping at Costco

For me I can't invest in a business I won't even shop in

USO wow !! Massive rip!

Halted with circuit breaker for moving so high so quick...

Oil huge rally

OXY, XOM, etc all energy companies and USO up massive today

Always bet on Black... oil

Been busy busy... closed out my USO trade for huge profits last week, unbelievable move there.. nice gains on AAPL and MSFT shorting call spreads

But I gave back half my profits on Friday shorting some NVDA put spreads and it kept falling.. pissed about that, but I have had a ton of winning plays so its part of the game I guess.

So past couple of weeks my charts I have showed that Dow 22K was major resistance, as you can see, that's exactly what played out. That is still a key area to watch. Multiple failures to hold over that area *should*.. well, I hope, that it can allow for a re-test of 19K support. That is where i'd love to get in big for some buys and hold on for another test of 22K. If we can get over that 22K, there isn't much room to go.. only 23.7 maybe 24K where theres a ton of resistance.

Those are just key areas to watch. Bullish over 22K and continuing my bear outlook if staying under 22K this week.
tempsnip.png

This market is too scary to hold a short position over the weekend - futures are so manipulated.

Likely the common theme will play out, gap up and rally a bit and fade as selling into strength is the key in a bear market. A legit close over 22K can change that though.

Finally looking like OXY has put in a nice base, in for the long haul today.. bought it for a swing trade

STKS low volume but when that thing gets some interest, it has a low float.. it will explode

Well here we are, super bullish close over that 22K resistance, next stop.. rally to 200d moving average around that 23.5k up to even 24K before I expect this bear market rally to lose steam and have a nice pullback. Long until then, good luck

This shit is rigged man.

That's why I try to filter out the noise/current events/news most of the time, and just focus on the technical indicators on the charts. Charts are just a map of human psychology and how they react at different levels of price & market movements... and as they say, history repeats itself. Its the best market compass you can have IMO. Everything else is just a guess.

It's all simple really, the market needs to have a bounce and create a lower high before it tanks again.

For now it will glide higher squeezing shorts and tricking moron retail investors that "long term I'm going to be rich"

And when they find out their favorite stock will lose 50% again in the next couple of months before it goes up 50%, they'll sell in a panic on the next big drop to the smart money who saw that as a buying opportunity.

Dow seems to be gravitating to that test of the 200d moving average where it may very well fail.. and fail violently.

Markets don't move straight down then straight back up.

Think of it like a rubber ball.

What happened is someone dropped it from a 10 story high building, it hit the ground @ Dow 18,000 - bounced, and while it may appear to have the momentum of getting back to it's highs, the momentum is lost and it will make a lower high, rinse and repeat. That is how bear markets work. There's just some great trading opportunities if you can get close to timing trades. As you saw with oil prices the other day.

Timing is key to everything in life.

There you are Iceman!

Hey, my advice, go all in today if you think that - right here at Dow major resistance that I've been waiting it to hit for weeks now, Dow 23.7K

Let's see how those trades you buy today look in a month since you have it all figured out