(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

3 years ago



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    #1 3 years ago

    Anyone here trade the market? We are currently nearing Dow 20K and thought this would be a good time to make a thread and see what other pinheads trade or invest in the market.

    I am a short term trader, with about 90% of my trades lasting less then a week. I have been doing this for almost 15 years now.

    As of today, I have decided to short the stock market here using the DXD ETF (long a large position at $14.00 even) and also using TVIX (ETF that tracks VIX futures, not the VIX itself - highly risky and not an investment ETF by a longshot) avg of $10.17. I will sell on a big spike / market decline and lock in profit, or cut losses quickly if I am wrong (stop loss at $13.00 on DXD and $9.00 on TVIX)

    Currently the Dow is at its most overbought levels I have seen in many years, and DXD is the most oversold I have seen it.

    The Fed meeting going on between today and tomorrow should result in a rate hike, which is supposedly priced in. I am expecting a 'sell the news' scenario and a large pullback.

    Good luck to anyone long in the market right now.. in my opinion, today would be a great day to sell and buy back on a bigger pullback. It should be getting turbulent out there very soon.

    “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
    -Warren Buffet

    #5 3 years ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    I began investing in mutual funds when I was 23 and set aside 15% of my salary to do this. My wife, though we hadn't met yet, was doing the same as me.
    Other than rebalancing, we've never sold. Not in 2000, 2001, 2008, or any other time. We are now early 40s and contemplating an early retirement by early 50s. We save about 23% of our gross these days.
    Simple, cheap, boring, stress free...and highly successful.

    Smart man ! I guess it depends on which mutual funds you are in as well, as some funds are hedged with short positions- but I can see why this strategy would work, although gains are much lower. I average about 15-20% per year, and some even higher - but a lot of work goes into swing trading.

    #29 3 years ago

    I'll show you what happened from a technical standpoint today, and why I feel the market is in a 'Blow Off Top' stage of the rally. This is where everyone crams into the trade because of euphoria.. people who feel they may have missed a lot of the run, but are still overly confident there is more gains to be made, and their greed takes over vs logic.

    This demand at the tail end of a big rally is called an 'exhaustion gap'. This is where smart money sells into this big demand, gapping the market up via stock futures- and also people go short. The reason for this is the risk vs reward now favors the downside vs upside.

    Also, one of my favorite indicators of overbought/oversold conditions is the RSI (14) indicator on a daily chart. Here you can see the RSI approaching the 90 area. Anything over 85 is extremely rare.

    You will also notice a significant deviation from where the current market is at versus the 50d MA (the blue moving average line in the chart) - the largest deviation I can find on the Dow chart since 2010.. almost 7 years ago. This is very dangerous to go long here.. even if there are some more small gains to be had.

    Here is the current chart:

    DIA (resized).png

    A graphic I found via Google images showing an exhaustion gap (in the actual market indexes huge gaps shown like this are rare, but a gap is a gap):

    exhaustiongap (resized).png

    #36 3 years ago
    Quoted from seshpilot:

    Subscribed. Haven't done any stock investing (solely mutual funds) but getting started soon. Any company you guys recommend to open an account with (Scotttrade, TD Ameritrade) and/or apps to download to watch my stocks closely?

    Scottrade was recently acquired by TD Ameritrade, so in the next 6-8 months you will likely see their IT teams transition and integrate their website and trading platform into TDA. I would suggest opening an account with TDA and avoid the transition.

    Also, if you dont already have a Roth IRA account- that is a good place to start trading, as your capital gains are not taxed and it simplifies your profit/loss paperwork when filing taxes. It also reduces the amount you will trade with, keeping you more disciplined and taking on less risk at first. It also forces you to trade with cash only, and no margin- and you must wait until trades settle before you trade with the funds you just received from sold stock. That might not make sense now, but its an excellent safe guard for new traders and investors..

    #60 3 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    As others have said there is no substitute for saving, living below your means, start early save as much as you can don't stop, don't react to short term or headline news.
    Also believe me, the talking heads are wrong half of the time, everyone said Brexit was killing the stock market, they said a Trump win was killing the stock market.
    Wtf they are no different than weathermen, nowhere else can a person be wrong all the time yet still keep their jobs.

    Excellent advise !!! You are very right. That's why when I trade I only go off extreme technical indicators, and not averages or middle-of-the-road indicators as I call them. Much too hard to predict.

    In fact risk management is the utmost importance when I trade.

    My winning ratio is only around 65-70% at best... I take loses 30%+ of all trades I open. It's simple - set stop losses and know your max loss in a trade that has a lot of upside potential (or vice versa if in a short)

    Example, I'll risk losing $.75/share in order to gain a potential $1.75-2.50 or more per share. You can be wrong 50% of the time and still be profitable that year, but you must always abide by your risk/reward strategy, period. Much more riskier then the some of the more conservative investment stategies mentioned here.

    I'm very impressed so far with many responses in this thread- I felt it was a good subject to discuss and many people in this hobby seem very intelligent and financially savvy, seeing that we are all here discussing high priced toys that not many people would spend this kind of money on

    #68 3 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Term life does *not* stop around 55
    Plus you don't need insurance for your whole life, if you have enough assets for your survivors to live off of, why would you buy insurance?
    Life insurance IMO is useful when your survivors would need to replace your income, once retired it's practically useless IMO
    Once retired, my expenses are paid from my savings nest egg + SS

    Exactly - that's why my wife and I have 30yr term policies.. mine will terminate at age 65, hers at age 60. They are in place in the event something happens to us while raising kids and we still owe money on our mortgage. This way they would have everything needed for college and to support them until their early 20's. Once they grow up and are at the age to support themselves, those life insurance policies won't matter too much..

    #96 3 years ago

    Short trade is working here.. but I wont count my chickens before they hatch. Waiting to see if we can get some selling pressure into the close to confirm a reversal into tomorrow.

    #102 3 years ago
    Quoted from kvan99:

    It's a trap Luke!!

    Hoping people are "buying the dip" today, so they can panic sell on another dip tomorrow.. we'll see .. tomorrow is key to confirm a reversal and give back some of the 2100+ pts on the Dow gained in only a month on pure speculation.

    #139 3 years ago
    Quoted from indybru:

    I'm not a trader don't own any stocks just no load mutual funds. I'm so diversified I could care less what the market does. I've been saving and investing for decades.
    One thing I know I'm considered retirement age but have no plans to retire. Just keep working and keep on going. Using retirement funds to enjoy things like pins, travel, winter sports, helping the kids buy homes and a daughter with disabilities have a decent life, and hope to help with Grandkids college expenses.

    Good for you man. You sound like a great dude.

    #142 3 years ago
    Quoted from TK2012:

    If you want a real challenge and have extra money laying around try playing with the penny stocks. Study alot on what you want before buying your 100,000 shares at .001 and watch it ride or fall to a write off. Trades are cheap on a ton of shares with Scottrade.

    Trust me. Do not EVER mess with penny stocks. You are better off going to Vegas and tossing your money in a slot machine, playing blackjack, betting on roulette, etc then messing with those scams.

    I was a former penny stock promoter... long story.. but trust me on this.. every one of those companies are a scam and have nothing but a great story behind them so people will buy shares as they are dumping.

    #149 3 years ago
    Quoted from JY64:

    So you are a former pump and dump conman and you admit it

    Negative.. I never did the dumping... its the people behind the shell companies who have BS shares. They trick and lie to investment marketing people to get them on board with their scam. We got screwed too. Long story, you would have to know all the moving parts on how that works. If I was part of that shady business the last thing I would do is admit it here. I simply ran an investment marketing firm and companies approached us to help build awareness campaigns for their companies newly added to the OTC markets.

    #150 3 years ago

    I am still in the Dow short trade here- lots of selling pressure came in yesterday, but there is some consolidation and a bounce today which means people are still not scared yet. The DIA chart here (Dow) must stay under the former high or else I will close this position to avoid risking another market breakout. I am currently down $650 or so on my trade so far. If I am wrong I will simply take the loss and wait for another setup. Always always take your loss quickly if you are wrong and your trade setup works against you.

    #178 3 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    I own my one home and a second vacation home (no rental) and the rest is Stocks and Bonds. No annuities, no whole life, no rental property.
    However I do own a separate class of stocks REITS which are pseudo real estate, they are required to return most of their income every year. It's like being a real estate owner but not having to get calls at night because the toilet doesn't flush.
    Note you don't need REITS because they are included in total stock market funds, but if you want a bit extra you can buy a percentage (tilt) but please keep it in a tax shelter because it gives a lot more dividends than typical stocks.

    What are your favorite REITS to own?

    The ones I have typically bought and held were AGNC, ARR, and NLY. They used to pay a much higher dividend, especially AGNC... but they still pay out very nicely and with rising rates, I expect them to rebalance their portfolios and increase the dividend slowly but surely- we'll see.

    #186 3 years ago
    Quoted from rotordave:

    KPG is the Wolf of Wall Street!

    I applaud you for saying that.
    Often share traders are similar to gamblers, in the way they only ever tell you about the wins and NEVER mention the losses.
    rd

    Thanks man. I could never trust the advice of someone who claims to be right all the time and never take losses. It's part of the game.. the only way to win is to know how to manage losing when it happens. Cut the loss and be patient for another setup.. there's no perfect/fail proof way to do it!

    #190 3 years ago

    Closed out my TVIX position as the market isnt doing much here - still holding DXD and seeing how the market shakes out

    1 month later
    #323 3 years ago

    Dow finally hit 20K ! Nice. Took a long time to finally do it..

    Anyone like XOM here? With Trump trying to roll us back in time and get the oil industry up and running vs renewable energy, oil companies could see a big rebound soon. Maybe even SLB would be another good play..

    3 years later
    #2501 3 months ago

    Wow I can't believe this thread is still going.

    I'm not kidding. I haven't even checked it in almost the 3 years since I started it. Crazy. Obviously a lot has happened since then and I've been short and long many times. As I mentioned in my OP, TVIX and VXX ETFs have been a favorite of mine.

    Last couple months have been all about trading highly volatile VXX calls, and even TVIX but I'll admit I missed a good chunk of the $13 to $1,000/share rip it had during all this volatility.

    When this COVID crisis starts to flatten we'll see the market recover a ton.

    Dow 17K is major support at the moment so we might see some movement there before a short term rally, but overall this is a bear market and the long term outlook from here is obviously foggy.

    I am looking into highly risky long term plays this week.

    Restaurant / Hospitality stocks that were previously uptrending and took a massive dump during all this.

    Anyone else looking in that sector, or even others? I'm looking at the following for long term bets on a recovery:

    DENN
    RRGB
    DRI
    BLMN
    RCL
    CNK
    TACO (although was downtrending before CV)
    TXRH
    RUTH
    EAT
    YUM
    JACK
    MAR
    MGM
    PENN
    PFGC
    STKS
    SPCE (long term speculative)

    Also some other large caps which I have already nibbled on Friday and will buy a little more here and there this week and next:

    AXP
    BA
    CTL
    WFC
    XOM
    AAPL
    ULTA
    AGNC
    ARR
    NRZ
    APTS
    CZR

    Any you guys are looking at ? Some amazing opportunities there.. cheap...but as we all know... Cheap can become even cheaper with all this uncertainty...

    #2527 3 months ago

    If anyone is looking for a potential lotto play betting on a full recovery after this mess, a stock that can rip 300-500% in the next year, look at STKS (One Group Hospitality) they own the high end STK steakhouse chains and Kona Grills. Their revenues have been rising year over year, and were $4.50+ before this mess, and currently sitting around ~$0.90/share.

    Totally speculative but when this recovers this stock will blast off IMO.

    #2531 3 months ago
    Quoted from cait001:

    anyone else kind of creeped out by the "let the virus do it's thing and keep the economy strong" rhetoric coming out of parts of the financial sector?

    Back in early 2009, before the massive bull market rally start in March '09, people thought the entire banking system was going to fail and we were going to buy things with silver and gold coins. Everyone was the most scared they have ever been.

    Then hope sets in.. hope and faith the world will move along and things will recover. Once the fear has settled in, hope can begin to rise.

    I truly believe this week is when that will occur, but ultimately, it may only be short lived until the next reason to knock this market down to new lows.

    #2536 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    The $260.00 gift that keeps on giving.
    AAPL needs to hold at this price of $220.00. It's down too far to short. And going long looks dicey.
    I just can't see people lining up to buy $1000.00 iPhones. The monthly services plan can dry up if people get tight for money. Anybody looking for a $6,000.00 Mac Pro?
    [quoted image]

    AAPL $220 technical support looks very solid right now.

    I'm in at $218.20 avg price right now after todays drop below that.. tons of buying (and possible short covering) volume under that level. Plus, it lost its "Trillion Dollar Company" status which some consider a good area to buy shares as well, as we all know AAPL will be in that category eventually again anyway.

    In order to make the biggest reward, you must take the biggest risk. If you think years and not months, we will all wish we put as much money as possible into these depressed equities today.

    #2538 3 months ago
    Quoted from cait001:

    I'm not a finance guru, but Apple has had massive cash-in-hand for a long time, so I wouldn't expect them to sink too far this year, or at least will be one to bounce back early. (perhaps this effect is minimized by record low interest rates, however)

    Their cash holdings is what keeps them where they are, and also the fact they have no debt.

    When the market corrects and de-leverages equities, stocks with debt (regardless of future earnings) are then factored into the share price which accelerates their correction.

    Since AAPL has zero debt and a ton of cash, it's a no-brainer to accumulate at these levels IMO. Apple makes so much off their services including apps, and people will always buy AAPL products.. want a new iPhone and Coronavirus is still around? Have them ship it to you. The demand for Apple products because of a virus is not affected IMO.. if anything, more will want to buy more devices if working from home, video conferencing, classroom streaming, etc.

    #2546 3 months ago

    I loaded up on BA under $100

    This thing was $350+ only a couple months ago.

    The 737MAX issues were priced in long ago, then this virus issue hit. Trump just pumped the company up during his presser too.

    Boeing will survive. It has to survive. And anyone investing in this company long term right here at these levels will be so glad they did one day.

    #2563 3 months ago
    Quoted from sataneatscheese:

    Looking into Cracker Barrel, Ruths Chris, and Red Robbin.

    Bought those yesterday on open after I mentioned them here, up 50%+ on both Cbarrel and Red Robin and 30%+ on RUTH Today

    Look into STKS as well, market hasn't noticed this undervalued hospitality play yet. Hit 76 cents yesterday which is ridiculous.

    #2565 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Bear marker rallies.
    They come from almost nowhere.
    Those who made new short trades get caught and have to scramble to cover.
    They can be swift. And steep.
    They can be violent.
    About the the time you get scared out of your wits and cover, they turn down and drop like rocks.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    This is Tesla. It is not a Bear market rally. This is, to me, a short covering rally that took place over 2 months time. Followed by the subsequent drop. I don't follow TSLA so I don't know the reason for the up move other than I am aware that TSLA has always had a lot of shorts with its stock. But the downside is a lot of this virus action.
    Bear markets can bring this kind of heart stopping action. And make fools of you. Yesterday some of us thought we might see sub-18K. I got fooled, for sure.
    Any of your have never been in a bear market, expect to see more of this kind of two way action.
    [quoted image]
    If you can find a silver chart from the early 80s, you will see this kind chart action and silver went from $4-$5 per ounce all the way up to $55.00 per ounce. It was a fast move up. At about $45.00 per ounce, Average Joe started buying and trading silver, silver was making the front pages, scads of little start up companies were placing ads and buying silver (at wholesale prices ), people started liquidating their silver coins and grandma's silver table service. Many old time collectable headed for the smelters. Silver topped at around $55.00 per ounce and started it slide back to earth. A lot of retail silver "investors" got their heads cut off. And sliver pulled back to around $12.00 per ounce and for the next several years slowly slid back to around $$-$5 per ounce.
    Squeeze the data on the chart and you get something like this 5 year TSLA chart.
    [quoted image]

    Yes,

    But on the flip side the inverse happens after fear and panic selling.

    With TSLA, that was greed and panic buying - either buyers rushing to buy so then don't "miss out" and shorts panic buying because they are losing their asses getting squeezed.

    The market just suffered it's most violent panic selling sessions in history

    #2570 3 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    Yep. The market always turns before the economy.

    Absolutely.

    Just read about the beginning of the biggest bull market rally that began in March 2009, because the Obama Admin began a $1T stimulus. Sound familiar to what's happening today?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bear_market_of_2007%E2%80%932009

    #2571 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Agreed. But why? What was the catalyst for the greed and panic buying?
    I would need to go research it, but I think TSLA announced some good earnings and many were expecting crap earnings and loaded up on the short positions. Earnings turned out good on a heavily shorted stock and the cover was on. The last shorts to cover were probably getting phone calls from the margin clerk.

    The catalyst was Model Y deliveries were upcoming, and the China factory opening and surging with business, along with better than their normal (garbage) earnings lol

    #2575 3 months ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    Whatever is causing it, that is a heck of an open...wrong of me to hope it drops back down to 18000?

    Tough to tell now, that 18K area could have likely been capitalization and an exhaustion gap down, so it would be very tough to see that area hit again in the short term unless some major unexpected news hits.

    Also, we are now seeing analysts come out and upgrade certain stocks from Sell to Neutral (and quite a few move to Buy recs) and move price targets which indicates to me institutions and funds have bought in the last few sessions and betting on a recovery from here.

    As we saw 11 years ago, quantitive easing and federal injection of liquidity, bond purchasing, and mortgage backed security investing helped propel the market from it's lows and we're seeing that same thing happen (but even bigger numbers)

    So let's say betting against the market right now would be a bad bet, in my opinion.

    #2580 3 months ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    It's not about betting against, or timing, it's about nothing has changed from yesterday. There's NO 'positive' reason for the market to be up that much other than false emotions. This is why I suck at the market though, I don't agree with what drives it.

    The markets are always forward looking

    Last month they were pricing in bankruptcies and a total disaster of epic proportions, and forward thinking was the worst case scenario which scared people.

    Today, they are pricing in hope for a potential recovery based on what the Fed is doing. Traders trying to get ahead of the curve and not wait for it. So now traders are betting that the worst may be priced in.

    That's not to say we don't see a pullback after today's big rally, but big dips will likely be bought up now, providing support and a floor which seems is Dow 18K and possibly now 20K.

    #2582 3 months ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    Zero good news for two weeks. Even a little bit of hope is going to make for big swings in a desperate market.

    Absolutely.

    By playing the market now it's high risk but high reward potential. Need to stomach the wild swings we will get.

    Hope sentiment can change on a dime at any moment and you need to be prepared for that.

    Any worse virus news that hits can change that hope sentiment quickly.

    So I say for now, buy on big pullbacks and sell on big rips around your core long term holdings.

    Example I sold 50% of all the stocks I mentioned the other day that I am up 30-60% on. Keeping 50% in case it runs more but if it pulls back I'll buy back the 50% again. Preserving gains and capital during the wild times we're in is key.

    #2587 3 months ago
    Quoted from TigerLaw:

    At this juncture, I don't think we are going to see a true "bottom" until there is medical news that shows things are under control or will be under control soon(ish): vaccine or treatment, either would be a stabilizing event. Till then everything is just a band-aid, and not a stitch, and there will keep being up and down volatility.

    Especially with this chart making exponential / parabolic gains to the upside. With the virus, oil crashing, unemployment numbers spiking (I believe jobless numbers on Thurs can be a catalyst for a pullback), and being an election year - buckle up for some volatile moves.

    3d40db145cbd3eacd93d3983d84c961df330da19.jpg
    #2588 3 months ago

    Here's the technical reason I bet on this week being a bit of a relief rally (note, still in bear market as of now)

    1) Dow Weekly chart (4 year chart shown here) was significantly oversold - more than I have seen in over 10+ years, as far as a weekly time frame goes. The RSI is circled at the top of the chart

    2) Technical support around Dow 17/18K as indicated by the red line, and where buyers stepped up and we saw a reversal in yesterday's session.

    3) Looking for a volatile move FIRST to Dow 22K and testing the resistance shown initially, then a test of the 200d SMA which is around 23-24K (where it will likely fail initially)

    4) If there is a retest of Dow 18K you buy up again because its a great risk/reward entry level there, tons of support.

    Some background, I have been day trading the markets since 1998 and I base all my calls off short term moves as no one can predict the future long term as we all saw. Good luck out there.
    tempsnip.png

    #2610 3 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    That's playing with fire. Those 3x leveraged ETFs are all guaranteed to go to 0 on a long enough timeline.

    Absolutely. Leveraged ETFs are typically day trading vehicles or used as hedges. They decay over time due to re-balancing and other factors. They trick people as well, as their charts are completely inaccurate long term because they drop to almost nothing again, then they split into big numbers and decay to almost nothing.. rinse/repeat. Likely OILU will split here soon because of how low it has gone.

    Example, TVIXs split history:

    TVIX Split History Table
    Date Ratio
    12/21/2012 1 for 10
    08/30/2013 1 for 10
    06/23/2015 1 for 10
    08/09/2016 1 for 25
    03/16/2017 1 for 10
    06/08/2018 1 for 10
    12/02/2019 1 for 10

    2X and 3X ETFs are NEVER a good idea to invest in long term. Get in, get out win or lose.

    #2636 3 months ago

    Dow is close to my first resistance level at Dow 22K, I just sold every stock I bought this week for 40-75% profits. Sold half my BA @ $173 today, half my AAPL @ $254 and holding only those for now.

    Expecting a big pullback once ugly unemployment numbers hit tomorrow.

    It's not totally out of the cards to see Dow 18K again by next week.

    Now, if we rally on jobs numbers and close over 22K, a move to 23-23.5Kish could happen but unlikely.

    I bought VXX Calls right now betting on more volatility to come.

    #2638 3 months ago
    Quoted from desertT1:

    I was just about to come in and ask what people think will happen with the jobless numbers tomorrow.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see some move to try and conceal those numbers tomorrow.. which wouldn't be good either.. we'll see. I don't see any of this ending up putting us on a long term bear market like 2008, but as a trader (and not necessarily an investor) my views can change rapidly. Right now that's how I feel.

    #2645 3 months ago

    Going to throw this out there for you guys with a long term vision.. and if willing to play on the higher risk side for a potential higher reward.

    I nibbled on some of this at $3.45 today, do your own due diligence and see if this is something you guys see value in long-term. I just stored it in my Roth IRA for the future myself.

    ARCO

    Arcos Dorados Holdings
    4.06% annual dividend (although current market conditions may change this)

    Here's from their Wikipedia:

    Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is McDonald’s largest franchisee in the world in terms of systemwide sales and number of restaurants.[3] As of December 31, 2010, it represented 6.7% of McDonald's franchised restaurants globally.[4] As the largest operator of McDonald's restaurants in Latin America and the Caribbean, it has more than 94,000 employees, being one of the region's leading employers of young, first-time job holders. It serves more than 4.3 million customers daily and is the largest quick service restaurant (QSR) chain in Latin America and the Caribbean.[3]

    The company operates its McDonald’s-branded restaurants as company-operated restaurants and franchised restaurants.[4] Company revenues depend on sales made by company-operated restaurants and rental income from franchised restaurants. The rental income depends on the greater of a flat fee or a percentage of sales.[4]

    Capture.JPG
    #2694 3 months ago

    Dow hit that 22K yesterday and tanked 1K points in 15mins so had to lock up those VXX calls for a little profit, today, I decided to buy them again about an hour ago at 22K and buyers came in and it wouldn't break down so I took a loss there so I'm even. I always cut my losses quick when the trade goes against me.

    It seems that since 22K seems to have been broken my next target close to 23K-ish may be the next resistance level. That is major resistance - 22K was a curb, and 23-23.5K is a brick wall. I'll be buying DIA puts and VXX calls there again and selling on any big pullback.

    Once we get a full reset I'm going in big again and buying everything long term. But we need a big move down to fill the gap below, so anyone buying here is risking it big time.

    You can't predict how the market will move off news (like today's atrocious job claim numbers) so I stick to the technicals for direction to determine if I'm right or wrong.

    Screenshot_20200326-084658_thinkorswim (resized).jpg
    #2699 3 months ago

    I think it's funny the GOP fought the Obama admin back in 2009 regarding the Auto industry bailouts, and Fox News and the GOP trashed Obama's method of using Quantitive Easing stimulus purchasing to stabilize and recover the markets.

    He got tons of flack for adding to the budget deficit by doing so... And here we are today, the exact same strategy being employed by the current admin and supported by the GOP and are patting each other on the back today.

    I'm more independent than anything and just trade based on what's happening today, but I have a great memory and it's interesting to see the 180° flip from the GOP on this. Farmers got a $28B bailout because of the tariff debacle, Boeing gets $17B, etc.

    Not complaining as I agreed with that strategy in 2009 and I know it should work out again. It's just humorous to have witnessed such bashing of Obama doing the same thing, and today they sing praise and congratulate each other for the same thing they opposed.

    #2700 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Bull Trap sounds reasonable. I know that at this point in Boeing's chart, and Boeing's size, it sounds crazy, but could there be some short squeeze going on, as well?

    Absolutely.

    #2702 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Then you have to ask yourself this: If the market continues to slide, what is the The Fed's and others next last act? How do they top $2 Trillion? As Methos mentions, our great grandchildren (something like that). will be paying for what we have just seen.

    The fed has indicated they are willing to have "Unlimited" stimulus to do what they can.

    Something stinks about all of this right now. Then they want to rush the opening up of everything in a couple of weeks? Risk making matters worse rather than let the storm pass?

    If this backfires, and chances are it will, then things can get uglier.. even faster than we saw a couple weeks ago. People have such short memories. They see green days in the stock market and all is well again... When it goes down they see blood. Amazing how the stock market can change a persons sentiment almost immediately. People seeing this rally over the last few days may even think the virus is going away now..

    #2706 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    The real scary part (well, at least before this massive $2 trillion move ) is that with classic Keynesian Economic theory, that the govt. is the buyer of last resort and needs to pile on the debt and then as the situation starts to normalize, the govt. starts cleaning house and buys back the debt and moves to build a surplus for the next rainy day.
    Our problem is the leaders just keep stepping on the gas and we keep getting buried deeper.
    While we have never been lily white, it really started with 9-11. That administration opened up the money pipe to pay for Iraq, and all sorts of other stuff so we could keep shopping and feel no pain. When the next admin. took over, it was more and more of cranking out the money to get us out of the hole that Wall Street dug for us with CDOs and CMOs. Sure, the govt. loaned a lot of bailout money and actually made money on that, but we just keep digging deeper fiscal hole.
    And the current admin. kicked into overdrive and put the hammer down almost on Day 1. We are so far in hock and I struggle with the fear it could collapse to the point it would not matter if you sold everything you owned or not.

    Agreed !!!

    #2707 3 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Going to throw this out there for you guys with a long term vision.. and if willing to play on the higher risk side for a potential higher reward.
    I nibbled on some of this at $3.45 today, do your own due diligence and see if this is something you guys see value in long-term. I just stored it in my Roth IRA for the future myself.
    ARCO
    Arcos Dorados Holdings
    4.06% annual dividend (although current market conditions may change this)
    Here's from their Wikipedia:
    Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is McDonald’s largest franchisee in the world in terms of systemwide sales and number of restaurants.[3] As of December 31, 2010, it represented 6.7% of McDonald's franchised restaurants globally.[4] As the largest operator of McDonald's restaurants in Latin America and the Caribbean, it has more than 94,000 employees, being one of the region's leading employers of young, first-time job holders. It serves more than 4.3 million customers daily and is the largest quick service restaurant (QSR) chain in Latin America and the Caribbean.[3]
    The company operates its McDonald’s-branded restaurants as company-operated restaurants and franchised restaurants.[4] Company revenues depend on sales made by company-operated restaurants and rental income from franchised restaurants. The rental income depends on the greater of a flat fee or a percentage of sales.[4][quoted image]

    ARCO beginning a nice move today

    #2730 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    I thought perhaps looking at some Boeing puts might offer a limited risk way to play.
    An April 3 180 put strike price, 8 days to expiration. Bid is : 17.00 . no intrinsic value.
    An April 17 180 put strike., 22 days to expire Ask is : $24.60
    $7.00 debit to set up a calendar spread.
    April 9 180 put strike, 14 days to expire, bid is $20.65
    So, set up a calendar spread for next week, long APR 17, short APR 9, Hope BA stays above $180. Collect the $17.00 premium. Then sell the April 9 180 strike. for perhaps $15.00 and hope BA holds 180 until expiration. Collect 15.00?? premium. Now you are long puts for free. and hope that BA craters.
    So, what could go wrong? I got to study this for a little while,.

    Funny, I was just looking into BA options.

    Problem is they (and many other stocks) have their IV (Implied Volatility) so pumped up if there is any sideways/slow directional movement that IV collapses and you lose anyway. Market makers love stealing money from pumped up IV in options. IV is such a huge component of options trading.

    With that said, the same is happening with VXX and I went long with a VXX Call Spread. Sold the $57 Calls and bought the $50 calls. I take the premium from the $57 calls and then apply that to the purchase of the $50 calls. Goal is to take advantage of the pumped IV of the $57s and see a slower rise over $50.

    Its tough to explain typing here but if anyone is interested, Google "Vertical Bull Call Spread" - options are tricky and I tell many people to avoid them entirely especially during volatile times.

    In regards to your BA puts, if BA tanks big time, then those options will rip. Let's face it... it's flying pretty high after my $96 entry only last week.

    #2738 3 months ago
    Quoted from usandthem:

    I agree with an earlier poster that about the civility on this thread. I think it's awesome. I'm very curious as to what people think the market is going to do over the next week? Will the S&P hit 2800 (or better), go back down to 2400 (or worse). I feel like the OP's message is that he thinks it's about to hit a brick wall. Wondering if that feeling has changed. Will the volatility slow down and do more drifting up or down? Is anyone who didn't dive back in head first 3 days ago a fool? Will the stimulus package make it so that the market only goes up from here? Thanks a lot for offering your take.
    On a side note, I will always remember that the government pulled 2 trillion dollars out of its ass in the course of a week next time it says that we can't afford such "generous" entitlements like social security and medicare.

    I think we are heading for that real brick wall for sure, I mentioned first target was Dow 22K which was a small curb to get over, but the 200d moving average on the Dow Weekly Chart is major resistance. I will be betting it will reverse course around that area for sure. No doubt, that's the real test if this is a bear market- if it closes above that, then this would be a straight up monstrous rally and I just don't see that.

    I'll be honest if we can fill in that gap down to Dow 18K again, it should massively reverse and thats where i'll be going all in the long side.

    Here's the current chart in blue of where I think it *can* go before hitting the brick wall. It's getting close.

    tempsnip.png
    #2797 3 months ago

    Damn so Dow 22K *IS* acting like bigger resistance than I thought ! Total short fakeout .. but still, glad I sold all my longs. That's why I set up multiple resistance targets on my chart. Only thing here is since it didn't touch that 200d MA first at 23.5Kish, it makes things a bit unpredictable here. For now, I'm using that 22/22.5K area for direction.. stay under, we head lower.. another close over it, bullish. It's a key area of resistance now.

    My VXX call spread worked out so awesome today. Closed it for nice profits. Selling a ton of AAPL weekly put spreads for a net credit as they will expire worthless today

    Good luck out there guys !

    #2802 3 months ago
    Quoted from pinballjah:

    Anyone like a VXX $50/$60 call spread? What time frame would you prefer? Personally I think the market will continue down until the US cases start to improve. We have family in Iowa and it is business as usual there. Everyone is still going to work at their offices and you wouldn't know there was a pandemic going on. I think the other States will be harder hit in the next couple months.

    I had bought the April 50/57 call spread yesterday to sell today on a bigger move

    I don't have a play on VXX right now set up, but the IV is so pumped on them selling spreads and having time decay on your side would be the better play, especially with the weekend coming you can take advantage of that extra Theta. But I'm out of VXX for now.

    #2826 3 months ago

    Wow.

    That Dow ~22K area is no joke.

    Lots of selling anytime the Dow gets over it.

    Screenshot_20200327-135251_thinkorswim (resized).jpg
    #2828 3 months ago

    Here's a peak at what I did today to profit nicely, selling Put and Call spreads.

    I sell them at X amount, expecting the stock to never rise or fall to the Strike price amount.

    I get a ton of DMs and I appreciate them, but tough to get to all of them, so I just respectfully ask to not ask how to learn this strategy. It's very complex obviously. I've been doing it reliably for over a decade and for 90% profitable trades. The other 10% is typically breakeven or small losses as I always cut losing trades very quickly if they go red.

    You'll notice where I sold them at a certain price, say 50 contracts @ $.28 each. That's a credit to me for +$1400. That's because each contact is 100 options. So, 50 = 5,000 x $.28 - there's another leg to that spread but to avoid confusion, my total credit paid to me is $0.28 per contract.

    My expectation is that the strike price, say $235 a share, is not hit and they expire worthless.

    You will see the current price is on the right, $0.00 as they expired worthless by close today

    Easy money. I do this almost weekly if the IV - implied volatility is just right.
    Screenshot_20200327-135632_thinkorswim (resized).jpgScreenshot_20200327-135644_thinkorswim (resized).jpg

    #2831 3 months ago
    Quoted from Deaconblooze:

    Do you have any resources you'd suggest? I don't expect to employ any strategies of that type during the covid market, but it has given me motivation to learn a cohesive strategy during volatile markets to supplement my normal "stay the course" portfolio.

    This site is a great start, i'd also recommend YouTube videos for even better explanations of Short / Selling Call or Put spreads for a Credit

    https://www.optionsplaybook.com/option-strategies/short-call-spread/

    #2842 3 months ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    Wow! I wish you had a live webcam and could explain your trades as you make them

    Funny you say that, many years ago I used to run a stock trading service and hosted a live chat room, put out daily training videos, and real time trading alerts.

    My site/service was actually rated #1 and #2 for a couple of years on Investimonials. Hell, maybe even some people here were my clients hahah! Now that would be funny.

    This was my newsletter:

    https://investimonials.com/newsletters/reviews-prophet-alerts.aspx

    Ultimately even though I had several hundred active users at any given time, it became way too stressful to make it worth my time.

    I'd get a ton of emails, many people who didn't follow directions even though you gave them clear and cut instructions and they'd somehow still screw up the trade.

    Id send an alert like "Buy AAPL at $135.25" then the next day, "Sell AAPL $143.73" (yep back then that was AAPLs price at the time, PRE SPLIT lol

    So many people would lock in the profit and move along...

    Then I'd get that one person... "Hey Kris, I decided to hold on and let it ride thinking it would go up more and didn't sell. Now they released their earnings and are down to $119/share. What should I do? I think I need to cancel because I lost a lot of money"

    Things like that made me just keep all my stuff to myself and just trade on my own.. and I guess post here on this forum about stocks lol.

    I'm also on Instagram if anyone wants to follow me, but it's mostly my car hobby page so you may not care haha

    @xkpgx

    #2845 3 months ago
    Quoted from mtdouble:

    Very impressive. I have tried a couple of your suggestions above such as STKS and ARCO, win win! If you consider restarting this service again I would be very interested.

    STKS was such a win... Got in average around $.80 or so, sold half @ $1.49, and the rest at $1.99 yesterday!!! Glad you followed.

    ARCO I should have sold some on that big pop the other day, but really, it's an amazing long term hold.

    They are the largest McDonalds franchisee in the world... And their McDonalds are in Latin America and the Caribbean. Really, the only places the Coronavirus hasn't shut anything down yet their stock took a beating. $750m or so marketcap now... But $4B+ in revenue a year. When all this passes, this thing should rip.

    At some point I may start a new service, but it would have to be a completely different format because it was so stressful to run it on a daily basis and it affected my own personal trading to be honest, so it's unlikely.

    #2847 3 months ago
    Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

    Got this from Disney yesterday.
    The new opening date has been set to...
    "Until Further Notice"[quoted image]

    This is a bummer. I'm glad they are extending our annual passes, really cool of them. I take the kids to Disney sometimes on Fri or Sat nights to grab dinner and ride a couple rides, and I am starting to miss doing those things. Cabin fever is setting in... Can't wait until this is all over already.

    #2854 3 months ago
    Quoted from pinballjah:

    Would someone be able to explain this option transaction. What does the '100' represent and the 'W27'? AAPL traded between $247 and $255 on Friday. Thanks for the help.[quoted image]

    100 represents how many options come in each contract, so 10 contracts = 1000 options, so if the contract is $.20, then each one costs $200 (or a credit to you for $200 if sold)

    The W indicates it's a Weekly option, and it expired March 27th

    #2872 3 months ago
    Quoted from AliciaC:

    Took advantage of KPG's reference to STKS - thanks for the tip!
    Thoughts on Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)? Fell from $51 to almost a 52 week low of $16. Can't make their April rent, but the odds of failure long term seems low.

    Best time to sell hospitality stocks was when they spiked up 40-70% in 3 sessions last week, now I'm out and letting them come back down and settle. Really I'd love to see Dow 19K again or even 18K before going big on the long side again.

    I'll be back in STKS if it can come down a bit ! It went up so much last week so dumped it. Great long term so I hope it can tank again haha

    #2874 3 months ago
    Quoted from pinballjah:

    Ok, so you really haven’t provided any real details on the spreads you are doing. Call you are buying, call you are selling. Are these trades just OUTM calls expiring on the same day? You are just selling the calls and hoping they expire the same day worthless? Strategy would work great until one of them blows up. Thanks.

    Like I said in my initial post there's so many variables it's crazy. So much.

    But I did mention I'm selling Vertical Call spreads, as well as selling Vertical Put spreads

    So by default, there's two legs executed at the same time, example, with AAPL last week:

    When it tanked on the open I sold:

    Vertical Put Spread on Weekly March 27 expiration
    Sold the $235 Out of the money Puts for $0.37
    Bought the $225 Out of the money Puts for $0.09
    Net credit back to my account of $0.28

    I sold 100 contracts of that spread and others that day. That means I risked $100,000 to make $2,800.

    Now that's where people say holy hell! That's crazy! So dumb. And they are right . Why? Because they don't know how it works and it would be dumb if you don't know what your doing.

    But my risk to lose that trade was for AAPL to collapse under $235/share by end of the trading day. If anyone knows AAPL, that would be a huge fall from it's low of the day which was around $248 or so when I sold those puts.

    It was worth me putting up the capital to bet against AAPL closing over $235, which it did.

    So then it went from $248 where I sold the vertical put spread and collected a nice premium due to a spike in Implied Volatility, then when it ripped back to $252 and $254 I did the opposite and sold 50 contracts of Weekly March 27 $270/275 strikes but CALLS instead of Puts. Sold the $270s and bought the $275s... Credit of $0.22 to me. If anyone has heard of an Iron Condor spread strategy I guess it's somewhat similar, but normal Iron Condors suck.. this is just a more optimized way of doing one.

    All expired worthless so I keep the credit.

    Yes you need a relatively large account to make decent money

    Yes I could have lost in order to make $5875 on those trades Friday:

    $136,000

    BUT

    Keep in mind. AAPL would have either had to close under $235 or over $270

    Also, had I seen something to see id be wrong I'd close them out quickly to minimize my loss, usually when it's 50% of what I'm expecting to make. If I'm in the red $2500 already, I'm out. Period.

    Both of which seemed impossible to me given the market resistance levels I've shown here on the charts I've posted.

    A lot goes into it. It's not for the faint of heart and I don't recommend anyone doing this style of trading unless you know what you're doing. It's a style large hedge funds and firms use, but just at a smaller level.

    #2876 3 months ago

    Also,

    I was doing some more research on ARCO and I'll be selling all of it on Monday no matter the price.

    The company is strong fundamentally, the long term chart isn't as solid as I'd like and the more I think about it, the more I think if there's any rise in Coronavirus cases in Latin America or the Caribbean it could be significantly impacted. So I'd suggest if you're in it, sell it if you can get a little pop hopefully. Not to mention the market could get uglier next week as well.. I'll look to re-enter it when this is all over with.

    #2882 3 months ago
    Quoted from Londonpinball:

    KPG I am great full for your post and impressed with your strategy.
    Your trades are wicked cool and your explanations prove you have experience teaching investors. Thank you

    You're welcome !! There's so many strategies and ways to invest/trade, and I have a few tools in my belt I've collected over the years of doing this so glad to share. Can't always promise I'll be right but I can always promise win or lose there's something to learn from me lol. Trust me, I've learned from so many mistakes I've made over the years. If someone claims they haven't lost or made mistakes they are lying

    #2884 3 months ago
    Quoted from pinballjah:

    Thanks for the detailed explanation. I guess you only do these types of trades on the weekly options expiring the same day? Have you ever had one of these trades go against you when the underlying shares increase/(decrease) in value? If that happened, would you close both contracts by the end of the day or let the trades settle? I think if it is settled, the brokerage should buy and sell the underlying shares so you are not stuck with shares at the end of the day and take on the risk over the weekend.
    I notice sometimes when the option expires on the same day and there is a lot of volatility, the options can still have time value associated with the underlying options. I have seen this on a Friday when earnings are released before the market opens. So say you do a $100/$120 call spread and the shares are trading at $150, the $100 calls may have an ask of $50 but the $120 may have an ask of $32.
    Thanks for the additional details. Couldn't get this info from the images you posted.

    What I posted was just one of my strategies I do with weekly options, only if the setup is perfect. Lately it's been once a week at minimum for that particular trade thanks to the exaggerated premiums on options due to volatility.

    I think like a Market Maker and try to ride on their coattails during this, and they want as many options to expire worthless as possible because that's how they make their money. So many variables.

    Also a factor, AAPL is not able to execute their stock buyback until next month, so they weren't able to buy tons of shares at the end of the day like they sometimes do. Also, I look at the Open Interest at certain strikes vs the volume that day. If there's not much Open Interest on certain strikes until that Friday, now there's a ton of volume at those strikes- tells me some big fish out there is selling them and the Market Makers are going to want and 'pin' the stock between a certain area to have those options expire worthless.

    This is just today, next couple of months will be different and I adjust my strategy again based on other market conditions I've traded. This is the way I trade during volatile markets. In less volatile markets, I go 1-2 months out and hold them longer and will close out at 50% profit or better or wait until they expire worthless but it might take longer.

    Also, if the trade goes against me and I don't close them (which would be very undisciplined and dumb) then what can happen is someone can exercise the option I've sold and I'd be on the hook to buy those shares at X price from them. Well, seeing I had 100 contracts sold @ the $235 strike price, let's say I didn't close them and the stock collapsed to $230/share.

    I'd have to buy 10,000 shares of AAPL at $235/share ($2.35M) from someone at a loss of $5/share which would be a $50,000 loss.

    Obviously if it gets too close for my comfort I'll close before that ever happens, which has happened, and I've lost money of course in the past. Luckily very little compared to my overall gains.

    Also, I'd never do this if earnings releases are close by or other news related factors could sway the stock.

    Most brokers like mine also will force close your options if it hits their thresholds as well, I've had them close out trades without letting them expire worthless because they had a +/- $7 threshold on AAPL that if it moves X amount in a certain time period, they see it as risky, and will close you out win or lose. So there's that too.

    Like I said, not for the faint of heart ! LOL

    #2886 3 months ago
    Quoted from D-Gottlieb:

    I have been following this thread and have no stomach for day trading individual stocks, and my question is how long will it take for the s&p to return to the level it was?

    Why I trade

    Because no one can predict where the overall market will be in the future

    We can all say "the market will always go up"

    But it can always go down much further. Then you buy at the wrong time and your cash it wrapped up for months or years for it to breakeven. If that ever happens.

    Problem is you can have years of gains and lose them in an instant like we saw. Tough game. I found the way to make the most money is to put in some work (it's technically a second job) to get reliably paid.

    Parking money forever and expecting to get rich is a tough gig in the stock market. Has to be a horrible feeling watching your profits rise slowly over the years and see them vanish in one month.

    #2887 3 months ago
    Quoted from sd_tom:

    list of inverse 3x family of ETFs
    https://etfdb.com/themes/leveraged-3x-inverse-short-etfs/
    interesting to look at the YTD values for some of these despite being an intra-day intended product
    this seems more approachable than the greek people are speaking above while doing some apocalypse gambling.. i mean, -3*gain of what it is tracking is an easy concept at least

    3X ETFs are an easy way to lose. They are the closest thing to gambling in the stock market, and they are designed as if Vegas casinos created them.. the house always wins.

    #2897 3 months ago

    Futures open in an hour. Tough to guess where as they are easily manipulated by relatively low volume, a large hedge fund can move them easily themselves it's pretty crazy.

    But if they are showing a large gap down, look for initial panic selling and a bounce, or a huge gap up will likely fade.

    #2914 3 months ago

    Uncertain times we are in here guys.

    Volatility is here to stay, with more pressure to the downside but likely very choppy swings. A traders dream. An investors nightmare.

    #2956 3 months ago

    Anyone think AAPL can close over $280 by Friday?

    I don't.

    Sold a ton of AAPL Weekly (April 3) Calls
    Sold the $280s
    Bought the $285's

    Net Credit to me: $0.23
    Goal is to expire worthless by Friday, or i'll close them them early if I can get 75% profit before.

    #2958 3 months ago

    Oh yeah,

    Forgot to mention, bought 10000 BA @ $97 the other day
    Sold at $180 the other day for $830,000 profit

    J/K

    #2960 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    I'm thinking this info belongs here on this thread.
    Macy's will furlough the majority of its 125,000 employees
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/investing/macys-employees-furlough-coronavirus/index.html
    Judging from the stock's action it looks like this news is already baked in.
    Surely, Macy's will not be the last.

    This will cripple the already beaten down retail industry even further.

    Any stock or company in a "pre-existing downtrend" prior to the Coronavirus is in big trouble. Creditors will be unwilling to extend credit lines and provide loans to keep them liquid. Macys, JC Penny, etc. may be headed down the Sears route sooner than expected after this- just a guess, but the risk is there.

    #2961 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Everybody is scratching their head. How can this market be up in this environment? It is a bear market. They bounce, too.

    Expected, range bound. Today up, tomorrow down? It will be in a range for a bit, less volatile up and down movements within a tight range is expected for now, Dow 23-23.5K target resistance still not off the table. Then.. more downside.

    #2965 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Why 10,000 shares? Why not 11,000? Or 9000?

    Because man, I don't want to make THAT much money

    #2968 3 months ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    Two retail companies I'd be sad to see go, that I occasionally shop at because they have decent selection of merchandise, are Macy's and Bed Bath and Beyond. They both have been struggling since well before the virus. I hope they will find a way to survive this calamity.

    BBBY is such a bummer. Great niche retail business, destroyed by Amazon.com and other larger retail e-commerce like Walmart.com

    Unfortunately, BBBY is a bankruptcy story unfolding before us. Before COVID they were hurting. After COVID, they are likely done.

    #2970 3 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    I'm a small fish compared to some of you guys, but I sold 6 SPY $300 covered calls expiring in a month. I'm betting the S&P doesn't rally 400 points in a month from here. If it does, my shares get called away, otherwise I get a bit over $1k in premiums.

    I like it. Good luck!

    #2971 3 months ago
    Quoted from cait001:

    oil has dipped under $20 a barrel!

    Play on USO 15 mins I just got into

    Sell July $5 Calls (200)
    Buy Oct $5 Calls (200)

    Net Debit: $0.26 ($5200)

    Maximum profit on Call spread will be achieved by July if USO is near $5
    Maximum loss would be if USO is under $3.00 thanks to the Puts as a small hedge

    Not huge risky positions, but i'll add more in the next week. Just showing the initial setup.

    EDIT: Removed the puts hedge I originally posted and closed puts out @ $0.83 for break even as I think oil prices will appreciate before July.

    #2975 3 months ago

    STKS down to $1

    Nibbled on some at a buck for long term Will add on any more drops. Glad I sold when I did... traders game!

    #2977 3 months ago
    Quoted from ptrav1:

    AMZN sold 1640/1660 put spread and 2200/2220 call spread (may 15 expiration) for 7 dollar credit.

    Ran a risk analysis on this

    EXCELLENT play... 74% win rate... assuming AMZN is at $1900 by expiration, it has a 100% profit potential. I like it esp since I believe the market will be range bound.

    But how did you get a fill on this without buying anything with the credit from selling the put spread? Did you buy the Call spread, or sell it?

    #2984 3 months ago
    Quoted from sataneatscheese:

    And if you sell it now you can make 20% as it's back up to 1.20 in the past... hour.

    Nah - I am not in enough to sell for that small amount. I'll hold as long as it takes for $2 again.

    #2987 3 months ago
    Quoted from ptrav1:

    Sorry I didn’t explain well
    Sold 1660 put
    Bought 1640 put
    Sold 2200 call
    Bought 2220 call
    Did it all as one trade through tastyworks
    So I make 7 bucks (x100) if stock stays between 1660 and 2220. I’ll probably close if i get to 50% max profit.

    Ahh ok! I got it. Nice man, good luck, excellent probability of this winning.

    #2991 3 months ago
    Quoted from swampfire:

    These short-term high-stakes trades are fun to read about, but they make me kind of sad. I need to get stay focused on my strategy of long-term index-fund investing I think. I suck so bad at picking stocks (looking at you DAL).

    Ask yourself this.. if you have a long term strategy, do you think the restaurant sector will recover? Namely, the ones that were strong financially and fundamentally pre-virus?

    If so, and you think restaurants will survive, take that money out of those index options and find your favorite restaurant industry stocks and buy on large pullbacks. IMO, they will outperform any index fund by 300-400% in the next 12-24 months.

    #2993 3 months ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    What are your favorite restaurant stocks?

    RRGB
    DRI
    BLMN
    CBRL
    STKS
    DENN
    PFGC
    PLAY
    RUTH
    DNKN
    JACK
    EAT

    Honorable mentions, for long term value investors as they are still in the Hospitality industry and affected:

    CNK
    CCL
    RCL
    VAC
    HGV
    MAR
    WYNN
    LVS
    MGM

    Note I am not saying start buying everything and get all in tomorrow, do your own due diligence, consult a financial advisor, etc. and determine how you should allocate your funds and to each one.

    But IMO these will all bounce back when this shit is over... maybe not instantly... but over time they should.

    #3002 3 months ago
    Quoted from Londonpinball:

    How can u invest in oil ? Futures ?
    Or how can you play/invest in the barrel price ?

    Earlier today I mentioned a USO call spread I did which is essentially a long/bullish play using options. Or you could just go long the shares too. There are 2X and 3X leveraged ETFs you can do too...

    or you can look into companies like XOM, CVX, OXY, COP, BP, etc. Those will all bounce back with oil.. OXY being the more risky one but having more upside potential (its also a good position size in Buffet's portfolio)

    #3003 3 months ago
    Quoted from swampfire:

    I applied that same logic, and picked up 150 DIS and 300 DAL. I was too early, but I’m not out that much. I plan to hang on to these and ride it out on a 10-year timeline. What worries me is the possibility that Delta goes bankrupt - but at least Warren Buffet and I will be in the same boat.

    I think over 10 years you are fine with DIS and DAL.

    My main concerns with DIS later this year, even after some upside recovering:

    1) Igor is gone. Left right before COVID too. Bad timing really.. new CEO comes in during a massive fundamental change with this company

    2) Movie production shut down... movies to be released, delayed and will have poor box offices. This definitely weighs on the stock, and will for the foreseeable future

    3) DIS parks are all shut down.. for how long? When they reopen, will headcounts be the same right away? I dont think so. How long will "normal" attendance take?

    4) DIS Dividend may be suspended because of this. Not sure how that could affect the shares (some say it could help.. some not)

    DAL, same concerns above... but with air travel...

    When the virus stuff is over.. then the market will turn to earnings reports again... and I think we can all guess how those earnings reports will look with companies like DIS and DAL.

    I think we see a decent recovery then boom...

    The real market correction when all of the economical data starts coming into focus post-virus fears.

    #3031 3 months ago
    Quoted from pinballjah:

    Wanted to ask your thoughts on a call spread I did on VXX last Friday. Did the $50/$60 call spread for a net cost of $3.07, expiry April 9. Is there any benefit to maybe selling some $60 or $65 April 3 calls this week to reduce my overall net cost? In case the VXX falls further. I would like to find a way to recover my net $3.07 on the trade, while maintaining the net spread out to April 9th. Any suggestions? Thanks for the help!

    Tough one here as I haven't been able to come up with a good risk/reward setup for VXX in the past week other than the one I did last week. VXX right now is very unpredictable, and when we get range bound like this I do not really touch VXX too much unless it's selling way out of the money Put spreads when it has accelerated selling, then selling way out of the money calls when it has accelerated buying. The problem is the Implied Volatility premiums have been bleeding from them so I don't have advice either way on this one right now.

    If I was to help you with direction though, VXX and TVIX appear to been basing out for a move higher over the next session or two...

    Let's not forget jobs numbers come out Thursday. Market went up last time and some gamblers might think that will happen again. My (total and absolute guess at this point) is the market does *not* react well this time and if the numbers come in worse, we have now established the beginning of an unfavorable trend.

    Murky waters out there

    I am busy selling out of the money weekly Put and Call spreads on AAPL any pop or drop I get here, with only a few days left for them to expire. Also, trading in and out of restaurant and hospitality stocks - as well as stuff like TSLA and BA - because they are nice and volatile. But those are so rapid fire no sense of making buy/sell calls in here lol

    I'll say I did notice today... market sold off end of day.. and TMUS went up at the end... perhaps buying calls or selling puts (or going long the stock) may be something to look into...

    #3032 3 months ago

    Thought i'd mention regarding STKS and some research I did:

    Last earnings call, they outlined the following:

    1) Cash on hand $9.3M

    2) $10M credit facility they can tap if their cash gets down to $4M

    3) Cut staff payroll from 4,000 employees to 100 core employees (bummer, I know) minimizing payroll costs

    4) Worked out many rent payment deferments with landlords of most STK locations, and working on others.

    5) Have worked out net terms and deferred payments for food suppliers

    6) Generate $300K-400K *per week* of takeout and delivery currently, utilizing only a couple of cooks and a general manager at those locations that offer it

    7) Said for the "foreseeable future" the takeout and delivery services are providing enough cash flow to cover their payroll and do not anticipate a high cash burn rate, let alone need to even think of touching the $10m credit line.

    In my opinion, the company management is awesome and when things return to normal STKS will bounce back massively and the current price is a huge discount for fundamentally strong and well managed business in the restaurant industry. Obvious a short term risk, but a long term investment opportunity as of today.

    Disclosure: Long STKS

    #3034 3 months ago

    Simple answer: Kick these puppies in overdrive

    639_hmim_intaglio_lg.jpg
    #3055 3 months ago

    Buying oil, incrementally, little by little at these levels is a great risk/reward. That's what I am doing.

    (Long USO via Call spreads)

    #3058 3 months ago
    Quoted from DBLM:

    Really good article from Cramer. You can read it for yourself, but thinks that the best time to buy is when we retest our lows. Does not think that investors had factored in the potential mortality rate here in the US.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/jim-cramer-wall-street-to-retest-lows-after-rude-awakening-on-coronavirus.html

    Definitely agree here, if wanting to get in for the long haul and hold forever, the sale isn't over and cheap stocks can get cheaper. Lots of people waiting to jump in at those low prices again, setting up for a nice double bottom and reversal. Dow 18/19K gap fill will happen quickly and bounce hard in my opinion.

    #3062 3 months ago
    Quoted from TigerLaw:

    Yep, I think this is a very astute observation and totally agree. People are realizing how much money can be saved with no traveling. I think virtual really takes over moving forward. Same with business lunches and restaurant dinners, think how much money people are saving eating microwaveable lunches and home dinners...I don’t see dining recovering quickly.
    People are getting accustomed to not spending money, getting that trend changed could be problematic.

    The pandemic has forced many companies to implement remote access and virtual meeting / remote workplace solutions without much decision making or planning. In my opinion, it sped up the adoption of these technologies by several years. Crazy how this all works.

    MSFT and Zoom technology are the best long term picks to take advantage of this.

    Got into COST today as well, in my long term retirement account. They've held strong during all of this, and proven in a down economy they will continue to grow and prosper and investors aren't nervous to own them and institutions are only buying more shares.

    Safe fundamentally strong companies are the best bet for you long term guys. Lower reward, less risk.

    When NVDA can retest the $210 and $220s again I love that one for a play off VR and AI.

    My neighbor is a big exec at Nvidia, head of their AI initiatives and I'll tell you this, they are working on game changing technology currently.

    #3064 3 months ago
    Quoted from LukyDuck:

    I read an article about one of the cruise lines today. They have offered refunds to customers and something like 45% of the customers took credit instead of a refund.
    I am leaning towards a lot of humans having a short memory span. Cruise lines and airlines will have some great deals this summer and I believe a lot of people with take those deals. Those with credit with those businesses will be using that credit before it expires. And millennials will take advantage of the cheap fairs.
    Now, I am not saying everything will go back to last years levels. But I believe they will have a bunch of people take those deals. Their stocks will recover decently from where they are today.
    That’s my prediction!

    Agreed 1000%

    #3075 3 months ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    Costco has been nuts in the KC area. However, compared to other options, their pickup and delivery options are severely lacking (i.e. non existent). As a result, can't buy anything from there as I don't want to go inside the zoo. So just buying stuff from Walmart and grocers who deliver in the area. That would be my one hesitation with Costco. Great brand, ran very well, but they also have a little bit of this "my way or the highway" attitude with the way they run things and don't seem very quick to change things. Like they're really behind everyone else with pickup and delivery, and their online order system is kind of a disaster (they lost my wife's laptop ordered on Black Friday, then didn't want to give a refund right away because they couldn't find it, etc). They seem behind the other retailers in terms of technology.
    I guess my question is, why Costco over say like Walmart? Walmart has a much a lower PE and double the dividend, and frankly over the past year or two Walmart has really stepped up their game with their grocery pickup...it's all we use now. I'm not sure I see Costco changing with the times very quickly.
    Companies are weird with remote work. Even with all their employees remote, they still refuse to believe in it. I love it. I've been wanting to be remote for several years now and was denied (which is ironic because we have branch offices where we work daily with people I've never met, they could be on a beach and I'd never know). Finally getting to do it for an extended basis here and it's awesome. I'm actually getting more done than normal. Generally the problem is that it will get approved up the line in a company, but at some place in the chain someone will reject it without any basis or factual backing, generally with the reasoning "it's bad" or "that's not the way we do things here". There's a real lack of trust at some of these companies, and there's all kinds of double standards that go on. I initially thought it might get them to relax on it some, but I haven't seen any evidence yet that employers have changed. I get contacted about jobs all the time (even now) since I'm a programmer, and now they all say "temp remote", lol. Even Facebook contacted me this week, said they had positions in Seattle, San Fran, New York but no remote...if a company like Facebook is unwilling to do remote, are any others really going to do it permanently? I seriously question the financial acumen of some of these companies...I'm worth like twice as much where they want me to move. Why pay me twice as much just for me to be onsite? It doesn't make any sense.
    Also hilarious about this, a lot of these companies will outsource work to India or China to save 50%...however, they could do the same thing to the midwest, but none of these companies want to setup an office here or have you work remote, they just want you to move, lol. KC has no branches for google, apple, amazon, facebook, or nvidia...kind of ridiculous honestly. They all complain about not being able to find good talent but in my opinion they're not even trying. SpaceX just wanted me to move out there too. I honestly don't get it. I don't think companies have sat down and done calculations on how much it costs to house an employee onsite vs letting them be remote...the amount of money companies could save in some instances would be astounding.

    COST over WMT all day any day - why?

    I can't stand stepping foot into Wal Mart
    Love shopping at Costco

    For me I can't invest in a business I won't even shop in

    #3076 3 months ago

    USO wow !! Massive rip!

    Halted with circuit breaker for moving so high so quick...

    #3078 3 months ago

    Oil huge rally

    OXY, XOM, etc all energy companies and USO up massive today

    Always bet on Black... oil

    #3163 3 months ago

    Been busy busy... closed out my USO trade for huge profits last week, unbelievable move there.. nice gains on AAPL and MSFT shorting call spreads

    But I gave back half my profits on Friday shorting some NVDA put spreads and it kept falling.. pissed about that, but I have had a ton of winning plays so its part of the game I guess.

    So past couple of weeks my charts I have showed that Dow 22K was major resistance, as you can see, that's exactly what played out. That is still a key area to watch. Multiple failures to hold over that area *should*.. well, I hope, that it can allow for a re-test of 19K support. That is where i'd love to get in big for some buys and hold on for another test of 22K. If we can get over that 22K, there isn't much room to go.. only 23.7 maybe 24K where theres a ton of resistance.

    Those are just key areas to watch. Bullish over 22K and continuing my bear outlook if staying under 22K this week.
    tempsnip.png

    #3183 3 months ago
    Quoted from thedarkknight77:

    Shorts are going to roast Monday, which will propel the market up to 22,000.

    This market is too scary to hold a short position over the weekend - futures are so manipulated.

    Likely the common theme will play out, gap up and rally a bit and fade as selling into strength is the key in a bear market. A legit close over 22K can change that though.

    #3197 3 months ago

    Finally looking like OXY has put in a nice base, in for the long haul today.. bought it for a swing trade

    STKS low volume but when that thing gets some interest, it has a low float.. it will explode

    #3198 3 months ago

    Well here we are, super bullish close over that 22K resistance, next stop.. rally to 200d moving average around that 23.5k up to even 24K before I expect this bear market rally to lose steam and have a nice pullback. Long until then, good luck

    #3201 3 months ago
    Quoted from usandthem:

    Seems like the market wants to take off like a rocket ship from here on the slightest bit of good news, but needs an atomic bomb to make it fall right now. I'm just trying to figure out who's right regarding the overall economy: It ranges from "full-blown depression" to happy days are here again in 3-4 months. It's hard to know what to do when respected people are so far apart in what they believe the future holds.

    This shit is rigged man.

    That's why I try to filter out the noise/current events/news most of the time, and just focus on the technical indicators on the charts. Charts are just a map of human psychology and how they react at different levels of price & market movements... and as they say, history repeats itself. Its the best market compass you can have IMO. Everything else is just a guess.

    #3216 3 months ago

    It's all simple really, the market needs to have a bounce and create a lower high before it tanks again.

    For now it will glide higher squeezing shorts and tricking moron retail investors that "long term I'm going to be rich"

    And when they find out their favorite stock will lose 50% again in the next couple of months before it goes up 50%, they'll sell in a panic on the next big drop to the smart money who saw that as a buying opportunity.

    Dow seems to be gravitating to that test of the 200d moving average where it may very well fail.. and fail violently.

    Markets don't move straight down then straight back up.

    Think of it like a rubber ball.

    What happened is someone dropped it from a 10 story high building, it hit the ground @ Dow 18,000 - bounced, and while it may appear to have the momentum of getting back to it's highs, the momentum is lost and it will make a lower high, rinse and repeat. That is how bear markets work. There's just some great trading opportunities if you can get close to timing trades. As you saw with oil prices the other day.

    Timing is key to everything in life.

    #3227 3 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    This is why you have to tune OUT the daily negative drumbeat Taylor
    Tax policy, fed policy, fiscal policy and trade policy all positive
    “Don’t fight the Fed”
    Big picture
    But hey, another great day folks
    FYI, it’s a “new bull market”
    During the past 11 years of market gains 9 single days accounted for 80% of the total market gains
    GL timing that.
    Green chutes guys. Maybe we get a nice dip from here but it will be short lived opportunity

    There you are Iceman!

    Hey, my advice, go all in today if you think that - right here at Dow major resistance that I've been waiting it to hit for weeks now, Dow 23.7K

    Let's see how those trades you buy today look in a month since you have it all figured out

    #3232 3 months ago

    Sold all my longs from yesterday for nice gain today

    Still holding some STKS long term (sold half at $1.70 today)

    Bought VXX calls
    Sold DIA calls
    Sold AAPL calls

    Going short today, Dow major resistance target hit

    Good luck for you dip buyers... Lots of dips will be had to buy, just don't blow your load all in one dip, catching knives is dangerous

    #3235 3 months ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    The entire world is pretty much on lockdown, destroying just about any industry that requires people meeting face to face. Movie Industry, Sports, Hotels, Airlines, Restaurants...all hard stop. People unable to pay rent, mortgages, car payments for the foreseeable future. A massive departure from life as we knew it.
    And where is the market? Down just less than 20%.

    Down less than 20%

    As of today

    #3237 3 months ago

    Consumer credit numbers coming out today at 3PM ET

    Anyone think tons of people running of their credit cards, drawing from equity lines, companies drawing on credit facilities, etc?

    That should shake things up a bit considering market is sitting at stiff resistance.

    Lots of optimistic retail traders buying today while big money writes calls that will be worthless on Thursday.

    Weekly options expire Thurs because of good Friday, and it's a big money maker to pump market, sell calls to optimists, then drive it lower and those calls expire worthless on Thursday.

    #3239 3 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    What is that telling you? The market is a forward looking voting machine. Think 2021.
    You aren't seeing what others are seeing.
    But i agree with KPG, i'm not buying today, did that 2 days ago, also not shorting it either.
    But IF you believe it's gonna drop again then load up on the 3x inverse Bear ETF's.
    Technically, we have just entered a NEW BULL MARKET. LOL

    We are still in a bear market. Nothing has changed, technical wise, and especially fundamentally.

    #3241 3 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    That's wrong technically, look it up

    I did, and we're still under the 200d moving average, there's still a death cross on every index.

    It's crazy when the market goes up a couple days everyone thinks everything is fine and the world is great all of a sudden.

    It's all technically driven by greed, fear, and algos.

    Today is greed.

    Algos will kick in and help propel your fear next.

    #3242 3 months ago

    That article was written today.

    Market isn't closed yet

    #3245 3 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    See above, the technical definition. LOL
    I don't make my decisions based on fear and greed.
    I will use the next drop, when it comes to buy in again. And then count the pile happily by the 1st quarter of 2021
    That's just how i roll! And i might throw a short term Vix play or TZA leverage in and out from time to time

    Do you buy every dip? During the crash did you buy each day that dipped?

    I'd like to understand that strategy, how you allocate the appropriate funds to cost average down while not losing your balls in the process, and then when the market bounces, barely breaking even. I've just never seen or heard anyone explain mathematically how that works.

    Everyone can claim they bought on a "dip" then sold on days that were green, yet, no explanation of their incremental buys, cost averages, etc.

    If you were a dip buyer and have not sold in the last several years, then all those profits made over the last 3+ years are gone.

    Unless, you somehow timed the bottom of the market crash with precision and doubled down there.

    Once again, anyone I've asked how that strategy works has never been able to clearly show how that works.

    Conveniently, when the market crashes, those are the same people who said they sold back at the top and are all cash too.

    One thing about the stock market I've learned.. it's most people are not transparent.

    Not calling you out Iceman, but it's just I've literally heard everything you are saying by so many people over the years.

    We all know the market will continue to go up throughout the the next decade, but timing is key...you buy at the wrong time during a crash and it could take years to make a profit if you don't know when to sell.

    #3250 3 months ago

    If wanting to do incremental buys, you really need to see when its best to start those buys though that's the point. Knowing when the indicators say its an oversold condition. On VTI, it entered my technical area I consider oversold on March 23rd right at $114-116/share. I believe that was right around the day I posted I was buying tons of stocks for a huge bounce.

    I feel the opposite today lol

    As for your incremental buys you started at the top and caught a knife and weathered a ton of pain and money to get your average to what appears may be breakeven right now.

    If the market turns against you, all of those buys above $135 will now be underwater, which it looks like the majority of your holdings are above $135.

    The March 23rd buy was great, as most people felt so much pain that day and panic sold everything.. so good job on that one for sure. I'd probably be selling half if it was me, and buying the other half back when the market gets kicked in the nuts again, but thats me

    All I know is when we get some great selling pressure to the downside again and retests the Dow 19Ks, thats where I begin my incremental buys for long holds. Because theres a great chance thats where the bottom gets formed.

    #3251 3 months ago

    Todays chart, notice that retreat off that major resistance
    Capture.JPG

    Chart I posted a couple days ago for reference
    tempsnip.png

    Risk/reward is favored to the shorts now.

    #3253 3 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    Thanks. Yes I had more firepower to buy more if it kept going under 110. That's exactly my plan on selling half at break even and buying down if it drops again. I had a few smaller buys not pictured in the 160-170 range from a couple months before that, so the average was around $140.
    But again, this is a small SEP IRA and I haven't contributed anything for this year yet. If it turns down again, I'll have enough cash to essentially double down if it goes under $110, bringing the average under $125. I'm not good enough, or patient enough, to time the market, but being in an IRA it's money I can't touch for another 20+ years. In 20 years I'm sure even $170 will look like a good buy.
    My brokerage account is where my individual stocks are at. That's where I've been selling puts and covered calls. I sold a bunch of puts out 1-2 weeks during the last week of March that all expired worthless. Now I'm selling calls against most of my longs, most dated May-July to make the premiums big enough.

    Excellent idea, that is exactly what I was going to suggest - selling covered calls against the longs.

    When I go in heavy on the long side again for the long term, my strategy will go back to selling tons of covered calls when we get the boring market movements.

    Today, in my opinion, is an amazing opportunity to write covered calls

    #3255 3 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    Is there much option action in VTI? I didn't consider selling calls on that. I just requested to have options added to that account.

    Not sure but I like stocks with liquid options, AAPL, DIA, SPY, etc

    Those are the best for writing covered calls. Market looking weak AF after that resistance test.

    #3259 3 months ago

    I noticed something highly unusual today near the close.

    A MASSIVE amount of volume came into the markets in literally a few seconds. It was weird. Almost a mini-flash crash that went undetected to most people who dont watch this closely.

    Look at the chart and notice the volume bar spike during that timeframe relative to the rest of the day.

    Could have been a massive short position, or some type of huge sell order in the overall markets.. I don't know, but if I was long I'd be nervous right now.

    tempsnip1.png
    #3263 3 months ago

    It's been fun going back and forth in here with you guys and I can't promise after the quarantine i'll have time to post in here as much, but it reminds me of the days I used to run my stock trading chatroom. I'd have 200-300 members in there and we'd just discuss the market all day and i'd be throwing out my analysis and trade ideas. Sure I got paid to do that, but it was stressful. Too many expectations to meet. Either way, I kind of miss it in a way now haha

    #3266 3 months ago
    Quoted from RA77:

    Reference ? Is this you KPG
    "We are still at the mercy of headlines"

    I agree with most of what he said. The thing I believe is the market is not factoring in just how bad the economical data is. Much of the news and reports are based from February and early march... just wait until the March numbers come out. Deaths slowing / new Coronavirus cases will be less of a market driver. I truly believe the Virus itself is the appetizer and the economical fallout is the main course. Bear market rally 100%

    #3267 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Here is a 5-day chart on the left. Opened with a big bang and fizzled. On the right is a one month chart. The opening filled the gap form 3 weeks ago and turned back.
    [quoted image]

    Tons of gaps to fill on the downside there.

    #3284 3 months ago

    Dow still under that 23.7K - still lower than where I was selling calls, although due to time decay I am underwater a small amount for now. I will be adding to my short positions if we can see another squeeze to 23,600-ish or so. That's the ceiling as of now. Obviously if we convincingly close over that i'll close my short and take the loss, but absolutely nothing to indicate I should do so at this moment.

    We are 6,000 points off the low.

    What has changed? Maybe the infections have slowed?

    Economical mayhem is still occurring while there are "hopes" COVID has slowed, one thing is for sure- PROFITS have slowed across the board and that wont change for a while.

    When the market shifts from COVID death/infection data being a driver into looking forward at earnings reports and guidance, which should be soon, then this is simply a bear market rally.. same shit we had in 2007/2008. It feels exactly the same.

    I am going to guess this is just another ploy to prop the market up like yesterday, sell Calls to dumb retail investors who think the market is going to continue to rally, only for them to expire worthless tomorrow. Today is unload-to-the-bagholder day, courtesy of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, etc etc.

    I also opened a Short Vertical Call spread on SQ today (Square Inc.)

    Sold the May 15 $50's
    Bought the May 15 $57.50's for a credit of $4.35 to me.

    Square has a large exposure to retail and restaurants vs just online. BofA has showed a huge decline anywhere from 20-65% in credit card spending in the past month for SQ merchant categories. This rally will not last for this one, in my opinion.

    #3286 3 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    It’s not about the economic data right now.
    Any dope knows it’s not gonna be good in the short run
    Live and learn. How much you get paid now for your advice KPG?
    Reading charts in this environment?
    When is the LOW gonna get retested? Not happening
    I’ve got a Starbucks gift card for you brother!
    This is your thread and crew so I’m back out. See you in 2021$$$$$$

    Ice normally people would be offended by a post like this, but I am not. I wont even downvote it like you do to my posts.

    I am just confident in my market reading, and I wont lie, you fit into a category of people I have interfaced with over the years- a lot of them.

    They pop out of the bushes when there are green bars, and they disappear when there are red bars. They always claim to make a profit, and are never in the red.

    It's all good man. Whatever it is you are doing out there I commend you for being the best there is because you have it all figured out. But please, I invite you to chime in on here and let us know when you are buying those dips and how much you are allocating to your overall portfolio during each buy.

    I assume you will not do that. That's your business of course, but if you do have the knowledge that others do not have, please share how and when you are buying. I am always open to new strategies especially if they can make me profit. Best of luck to you bro.

    #3287 3 months ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    Nope, I'll just continue to call him on his bs. Oh that's right, he put me on ignore. Can't handle truth. Or maybe he's just too sensitive.
    On topic, I believe this tweet that went out today is the reason for the push over 23k a few hours ago. Strange. Feels like manipulation more than positivity.
    "Once we OPEN UP OUR GREAT COUNTRY, and it will be sooner rather than later, the horror of the Invisible Enemy, except for those that sadly lost a family member or friend, must be quickly forgotten. Our Economy will BOOM, perhaps like never before!!!"
    Posted in #twitter-stream | Today at 10:02 AM
    And I'm simply pointing out a possible reason for the uptick. Something I'm always trying to follow and understand the reasons for the movements of the market.

    Donald is known for trying to manipulate the market. I mean, he autographed a stock chart because of an intraday spike during his press conference last month... who does that?

    Not to mention he hired Steve Mnuchin, a previous hedge fund manager and investor and worked for Goldman Sachs for almost two decades. He has a net worth of $400M+

    The guy is a market genius... if anyone knows how to prop up a stock market, it's him. You better believe he's whispering sweet nothings into Trump's ear as well. He's the reason the fed is pumping so much money into the markets and they are doing everything they can to prevent another crash. Let's see how it lasts. Feels like a dam breaking and the Fed is patching up the cracks with JB Weld. How long will that hold?

    #3289 3 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Head scratcher ain't it fellas?

    Nope - Dow is still under 23,700 resistance. Unless it closes on high volume above that, it's playing out just as I expected so far. And if I am wrong, i'll admit in and go long. If you're wrong, you just disappear lol

    #3293 3 months ago

    Closed out all my positions - took a small loss on them, but albeit very small due to my entries yesterday when Dow was at its highs but playing it safe.

    Right now all cash. Reason being is although we are at strong resistance, the volume is suspiciously extremely low. That means shorts can get caught in a squeeze and fake out above that 200d MA.

    Either way when volume dries up and we are so close to resistance it becomes shaky. I feel there is a ton of downside to be had still but its not worth the gamble to me either short or long.

    No matter what position you stand, good luck, even you Iceman

    #3304 3 months ago
    Quoted from usandthem:

    His campaign has been toast for longer than we've been on a "stay at home" order, so I find it hard to believe that Sanders dropping out was a factor.
    KPG- Has anything changed from your 23,700 resistance level? Or does that appear ready to fall? Thanks.

    Honestly nothing has really changed as far as that being a resistance level or not. It has already been tested once, and we saw a 700+ pt drop after hitting it, so its definitely a wall.

    The problem I have is after watching today's price action. As I mentioned before, my opinion can change after each trading session. Charts dont tell the entire story either. I also factor in price action and volume. Today's price action didn't give me confidence we will see a rush of volume on the downside just yet. It seemed the market was floating up on little to no volume which to me is more algorithm based action then legit buying pressure.

    When you see strong direction you usually see that with big volume. Now keep in mind most weeks that have a holiday normally has low volume and those to me are the riskiest because of how easily low volume markets can be manipulated.

    Without rambling on here, what made me close my positions even though the chart shows resistance is that volume drying up. That means if we get another gap up tomorrow, the volume can pick up from shorts forcing to buy back and squeezing the market higher as they wont want to be short over the weekend. I am going to assume many traders and even retail may have gone short today with my same thinking, and the squeeze could create the momentum to propel it over the 23,700 mark.

    So basically my gut instinct and intuition is telling me that there could be some faking out over this key area.. maybe we get a pop over it, causes a squeeze, then we see the selling volume coming in. I think its best to see how the battle at 23,700 works out before making any decisions either long or short now to me. Especially with the current negative economical news ahead of us.

    Capture.JPG
    #3329 3 months ago

    It's really tough to argue what the stock market will do based on news. I wish I knew a way to make money timing news events and how the market will react. I think it's definitely a coin flip when doing that. But, if you can time scheduled economic data news releases at key technical areas, then you can make trading/investing decisions from there.

    For me, focusing on the technical aspect of the markets first and foremost is key. Then, combine those technical levels with scheduled economic data releases.

    If you've followed my posts for the last couple of weeks, I actually precisely timed the market bounce and posted a chart about it, and actually had my first 22K target set, and if that broke, my 23.7K target. So essentially I have been buying and going long for almost the entire duration of this bounce which I felt was needed and expected, but fundamentally did now change the fact that in my opinion is a bear market.

    Now that I feel the "meat" of the rally is exhausted and we did see a 700+ point retreat literally at almost that exact 23.7K territory, I am no longer long.

    Timing is key.

    With jobless numbers coming out tomorrow, could that propel the selling at the key technical resistance area in the markets?

    Or somehow create a rally to break that resistenace and propel higher? Because a big move over 23.7K propels an extremely bullish move higher and to me THAT is when I'd consider the bear market exit. A strong high volume move over the 200d moving average.

    With that said, I'm all cash. I caught the meat of the rally as the risk/reward was the to upside. Now, risk/reward seems to favor the downside. Rather than roll the dice as to what happens here, I kick back and preserve my gains and watch for a definitive direction at this key level.

    I have no position, but I strongly feel that the job numbers this time could create a reversal from this key resistance level. To me, this bear market rally is exhausted.

    Tomorrow.. key technical resistance + job numbers = the perfect storm for a big move..

    #3330 3 months ago
    Quoted from Pecos:

    I have been lurking here for a while now. You've got a good thread here! I enjoy and appreciate all of the information posted, especially by kpg, since I'm not a technical analyst. I am a fundamental analyst and I want to share what I have learned about CoVid-19 with you:
    https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/the-official-coronavirus-containment-thread/page/37#post-5546370
    My background is in IT as a developer and an analyst. I traded the market in the late 90's and got out in 2000. I just recently got back in as my research told me that with the markets being so 'frothy', as my friend so quaintly said, this was the opportunity of a lifetime.
    If you want to have an idea what is in store for the United States, keep an eye on the Eastern Asian countries and a few European nations as they try to reopen their economies.
    If you have any questions about CoVid-19, I will be glad to try to answer them as honestly and accurately as I can. Know your enemy!

    Wow. Thanks for linking to that. Just read your post and you definitely know your stuff. A lot better stuff than my buddy has been texting me for the last couple of days speculating Bill Gates made the virus and Dr. Fauci is part of the conspiracy

    #3334 3 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    To make a wise informed investment decision you have to be educated to both sides of any argument and consider the alternatives.
    I'd agree with KPG that the rally feels stretched and further bolstered by the RSI going to from way oversold to quickly approaching 70, i think we closed at 65 or so today?
    Not to mention that the futures are drifting slightly lower.
    Patiently awaiting a pullback in this new bull market.

    Futures are very low volume and easily manipulated - they are currently up big looking to squeeze shorts on the open as I suspected. Mnuchin knows all about this as Goldman traders have bragged for years how they could literally use enough capital to buy futures and create a gap up the next day to squeeze shorts. You better believe the Fed is working behind the scenes to do this. Futures are a total scam.

    But one thing that makes me feel pretty confident the next wave down of this bear market is coming, is because of Iceman popping into this thread.

    Now that we see an extended rally, the "super bulls" come out and think everything is fine and it's a new bull market. They have very short memories of the bloodbath that was occuring in the markets the previous month. This is all the same thing I saw during the last crash and Iceman is the perfect contrarian indicator.

    No offense of course to you Iceman. Don't take it personal. You're just one of many I see from time to time pop their heads out after the market has made a big move, and it's a bearish sign. Buy on fear, sell on greed... And a 6000+ pt move off the low and some nice gains will make people greedy for more.

    #3361 89 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    KPG is long now! Blew through 23,700 resistance. All in brother?

    Oh hell no man.

    This is what I said I thought would happen yesterday and it's playing out, gap market up huge to squeeze shorts and get the bulls to jump in - we arent closed yet, the 23,700 area is still being battled - a little spike over is not a confirmation just yet. I'll definitely tell you when I will get in long though.

    Total coin flip right here in the markets - very interesting to watch. I can't get in until there is a convincing move with high volume. Its all about how it closes today so I likely wont do anything because of the long weekend. Anything can happen at this point. Which reaffirms why I exited all short positions yesterday, money saved is money earned.

    By the way, spoke with a friend who works at Pimco yesterday and they said they are in the process of becoming more "liquid" .. as in raising cash and selling equities into this.. if that tells you anything.

    #3368 89 days ago

    All of this talk is such a contrarian indicator to me. Everyone here is thinking its going to keep going up forever. Its crazy how multiple green days can make people so bullish.

    I dont have a position in play off this though. Who knows. I could be wrong. But I dont feel right enough to place big bets on the downside either lol

    And to that point, people who think you cant fight the Fed and it will keep going up wont buy big today either. Iceman, you a buyer here? The Fed has got this right..

    #3371 89 days ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    You're referring to the 'if everyone says things are great, get out?' 'if everyone says the sky is falling, get in?'
    I'm not clear on which of these we are....seems pretty split...

    Much more than that - but that way of thinking kept me all cash during the market crash and out of trouble, rather than trying to assume things will keep going up. It's sometimes just safer to be "out" then "in" no matter what you think.

    I just dont see a reason to be either as of today, that's all I am saying. But here's why I *wouldnt* be in long:

    1) Terrible economical data. Sure, market hasnt sold on it and that's fine. But, its bad and all incoming numbers will be worse
    2) Dow has retraced 6500+ points from the lows
    3) Buying volume is literally non-existent except during the first 30mins of the day after a manipulated futures gap up
    4) Investors are starting to feel bullish and too confident the market will continue to rise
    5) Markets at key resistance levels
    6) Earnings releases start to come out next week. How are those going to look? How about future guidance? Not good i'd think..

    This is not a good thing to be long
    But a bit too early to short.

    If all you have to buy and hold here is hoping the Federal Government is here to protect you, and that's it- good luck on that.

    #3372 89 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    Everybody posting but Ice is on the sidelines waiting for it to go down. That doesn't sound contrarian to me. That money on the sidelines should act as support on declines.

    I meant by contrarian meaning the posts I am seeing are feeling confidence the markets will continue to rise - hoping they go down is one thing, many of us are - but feeling overly confident the market will continue to stay strong after a big drop/crash is what I meant.

    #3375 89 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    I bailed on OXY today, bought at $13.30 and sold at $17.91.. I will look to rebuy later.. thanks for the tip KPG

    Nice trade dude!! I got out of mine a bit too early myself in the $15.50's, excellent. Chart looked ready to rip + oil rebounding.

    #3380 89 days ago

    Wow..

    Closed right at 23,715

    Big battle at that 23,700 / 200d moving average today.. flip a coin.

    Next week will be fun. Have a nice long weekend guys and Happy Easter

    time

    10
    #3413 88 days ago

    Interesting thoughts on the current Dow daily & weekly charts.

    The Daily chart created a very perfect 'Doji' candle. This candle represents a battle of the bulls and the bears, and has a very high probability (not 100% but I'd say 75-80%) a reversal is imminent. Notice on the daily chart I circled the last times a Doji candle was formed....

    The Weekly chart is right at the 200d MA. As you see from the wick that spikes above the 200d, it did prove there is resistance there and a struggle to hold above.

    While both these indicators do show me the rally is exhausted, I just wouldn't short just yet. The futures have been manipulated to gap the market up to squeeze shorts, and I'm not the only one to notice what's happening. If I was the Fed / big money funds, I'd want to substantially gap the market up come next week to carry it over this resistance. If that happens, then 23,700 would then act as new support.

    I may be wrong and it keeps going higher but I hope it can come down and consolidate first. The higher this rally goes the more risk it has to the downside when the selling comes back.

    Even if I'm wrong that's fine. I think of the stock market like a pineapple, cut off the top and the bottom and focus on the middle. I got in when I felt the bottom had formed, and now I'm getting out near where I feel the top is. Even if I am off a bit that's fine. I feel the main "fruit" has been earned and now I just wait it out. With earnings reports
    and even worse economical numbers next week it should be interesting. I truly feel what happens next week is a make-it-or-break it scenario as far as the overall market strength goes.
    Screenshot_20200410_201644 (resized).jpgScreenshot_20200410_201716 (resized).jpg

    #3452 85 days ago

    Scaled into some airliner stocks today. Seems they are the laggards over this rally to be honest, and haven't realized their bounce like the rest of the other beaten down sectors.

    Of course, for justifiable reasons. Airline business has been significantly impacted so people are fearful to invest in them, and rightfully so.

    Warren Buffet even sold most of his Airliners... In fact, it may be an example of him selling on fear vs his trademark "buy when fearful, sell when greedy" standpoint.

    I'll argue I didn't agree when he bought XOM and other oil names like OXY at the top when in the 'greed' areas.

    I think he simply had to cut something and the airliners were the least likely to rebound in the short term.

    Airline passenger stats are showing a potential bottom of less than 100K passengers a day, and it's hovering around there. The worst is priced in.

    There's definitely a risk of more downside so understand that. Scale in, not all in.

    I'm holding very long term and with that said, I'm selling covered calls and covered puts along the way to collect premium to offset my cost basis so that factors in why I'm knife catching some Airliners.

    Bought DAL, AAL, and HA today and will be looking for some JBLU as well.

    Today's pullback wasn't on high volume and little selling conviction so I'm assuming we'll see further battles at the Dow 200 sma.. even if Airliners go down, I'm buying more at this point and will just sell more covered calls and puts.

    #3457 84 days ago
    Quoted from thedarkknight77:

    Buffet did not sell most of his airliners?? He sold a small portion.

    To clarify I didn't mean most of his shares, but most of his actually airline names - as in Delta and Southwest, the biggest positions he has. He sold close to a 1/2 Billion which is a lot to me still

    But keep in mind he is on record saying he'd "never" sell airline stock. So I was surprised to see him do that.

    #3462 84 days ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    Apparently United has sent a few hundred plans to the desert to die with no plans to bring them back. This could be an early retirement or just offloading assets no longer needed to save on M&U. My guess is that the airlines don't expect to get back to "normal" for a year or two.

    Just like it really makes no sense to see the stock market recover as rapidly as it has, the same can happen for Airliners because of optimistic hopes of a recovery, at least that's my rationale for being long Airliners.

    The good thing is that if it takes a while that's fine, because I'm selling covered calls and puts along the way.

    Example one of my positions is I bought 600 DAL yesterday @ 22.87

    I simultaneously sold (6) May 15th $17 puts and also sold (6) May 8th $30 calls

    I'm up $1150 on the shares

    Down $130 on the covered calls (that's ok, I don't see DAL closing over $30 by May 8th, which I'll collect a $516 premium if it stays under $30)

    Up $411 on the covered puts, which I closed out and took profit and will sell them again in a few days.

    #3473 84 days ago

    Now that the 23,700 / 200d MA has clearly been broken and will close above it finally, the next major resistance isn't until 24,860 which is the 50d MA on the Dow Daily chart.

    I just needed to see how that resistance worked out before going long, which I did yesterday with the airliners and a few other of my normal stocks I bought today I've traded for years.

    The battle was won by the bulls and instead of fighting this, I just go off my technical analysis rather than what I "think" the market should be doing and go from there. Sure I may have missed a little bit of the rally, but this way of trading has kept me profitable through the years and I never need to stomach the crazy swings that buy-and-holders have to go through over time. Just modest gains with a consistent uptrend in portfolio value with little dips along the way.

    Next stop 24,860 as 23,700 is now major support. If 23,700 is broken that is still a key area to watch. Not to say it can't be retested any time though, by being long up here the risk/reward isn't very great anymore but at least there's a clear risk (23,700) and reward (24,860) range currently defined.
    Capture.JPG

    I also sold a nice weekly vertical call spread on TSLA today.

    Sold the April 17 $925 calls and Bought the $935 calls

    If TSLA closes under $925 this week, they will expire worthless for a 100% profit. If it pops more tomorrow, i'll sell strikes above $950. Betting TSLA won't be able to rally higher than that by Friday.

    #3475 84 days ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    I'm going to continue to sit this out. This is what I predict is going to happen which hasn't changed from the beginning. People are tired of sitting at home, many people seeing the 'less deaths' as a 'see I told you so' instead of the real reason, and so those in power are going to open things up again. Then, new breakouts are going to occur and people will either ignore it until the numbers are big and it is too late, or panic right away. Either is bad, and the market will panic and drop like a rock with the anticipation of additional deaths and another imminent lockdown.
    The market is overpriced, propped and still fake. I can't imagine why anyone thinks the market is supposed to be at 30k.

    You will be right in the end.

    Be patient.

    This pig will come back down.

    #3481 84 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    Looks like he sold 6 calls against 600 shares so those are the covered calls.
    He also sold 6 puts, meaning he'd buy 600 more shares at 17 if he was forced to.

    Correct.

    Airline stocks ripping in after hours on some good news.

    Hope some of you guys caught this move...

    #3483 84 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    It seems that it’s all about government bailouts at this point, it really doesn’t matter what industry it is.. very sad! I guess our grandkids can figure out how to pay for all of this.

    Funny how the current guy running the country bashed the previous guy running the country for this same exact thing... and now he gets full support from the people that opposed it as well.

    I don't want to get political in here so I wont, but it's funny how it all works. Here we are, more bailouts and debt.. and taxpayer money from us, the little guys, bailing out the big corporations. Insane.

    #3486 84 days ago
    Quoted from usandthem:

    Not to mention the apparent new love of authoritarianism by the supposed freedom-loving crowd.

    Exactly.

    My buddy is a huge fan of the current President and for the past year all I have heard is his rants about socialism, hand outs, bailouts and debt from the previous Prez...

    Now he's a fan of it apparently.

    I asked him if him and his wife will be ripping up their socialism checks when they arrive lol... nope

    #3488 84 days ago
    Quoted from thedarkknight77:

    Stop this nonsense talk! Nothing matters, no charts, no logic, no earnings, no nothing! The federal government and a few key market markers are behind this inflated bubble. They are using our tax dollars to create the biggest wealth gap in history. This is all you need to know. At some point our stupid govt. started to believe it was their job to keep the market going up, no matter how over priced it is. You know why I hate Republicans and Democrats because at the end of the day they are the exact same. Obama made more billionaires with his QE run and Trump will do the same. This is our money they giving out like candy.

    I agree with you except the charts part of it. That's how I am making a ton of profit in this market. If I traded based on my current thought of how f*cked up everything is, I'd never make a dollar doing this.

    The stock market charts tell me how to make money, the news tells me what is going on in the world.

    #3497 84 days ago
    Quoted from RGman:

    Perfect timing kpg! I'm glad I followed your lead on these. Thanks for sharing and for all your input on this forum!!!

    Awesome!

    I figure rather than contributing a ton of info about my thoughts of the current economy, i'd rather bring some opportunities here to make money.. thanks to the Restaurant/Hospitality stocks, Oil stocks, and now Airliners (amongst others like the usual BA, AAPL, NVDA, etc) I have to say I feel very fortunate right now that so many opportunities presented themselves and the timing was right, so I am thankful for that.. and thankful some people made a few bucks alongside me on these trading ideas over the last month or so

    Keep in mind although things seem all good and the market is floating up, I am still not changing my thoughts that the higher we go.. the harder we will fall when reality sets in. It's running on fumes, trust me. I am just trying to capture a little more profit until that happens.. but be skeptical and cautious at all times with this market...

    Visual representation of how I picture where the market is... and only a few pieces left to take in the short term here.. before it comes down (In my opinion)

    TDJDnaag.jpg
    #3498 84 days ago

    FYI,

    Alcoa Corp (AA) reports earnings on April 22nd.

    Being very familiar with trading in volatile markets, especially during questionable market and economic conditions, allows me to base certain patterns around earnings of market moving companies.

    One of those companies that has always been looked at as an overall economic health indicator is Alcoa. I suggest looking them up if you are not familiar with the company, but I will say this.. if the market doesn't start retreating by then.. Alcoa's earnings report on 4/22 can be a market mover for sure. Just thought i'd mention.

    #3514 83 days ago
    Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

    So much for support at 23,700.

    Total fakeout/breakout above 23,700 yesterday - insane. Even got me a believer in the "cant fight the fed" bullshit after that move yesterday. I mentioned we could see a squeeze / spike past it as a fake out a few days back and here we are.

    200d MA / 23,700 huge wall. Remember what I have been saying this whole time is that 23,700 is "major resistance" and we have now seen two attempts to break over this and fail. Not a good sign so far, especially since the market just reacted off negative news (earnings) this time around.

    Can't fight the fed? LOL. False sense of security if the Dow stays under 23,700 and holds. If we close under that level this week, next week with AA earnings could be ugly.

    And no, I don't recommend buying AA or anything right now.

    BTW for transparency reasons, I am still long my airliners right now. I was up HUGE in after hours yesterday.. and today I gave them up. Still up a little on the shares because of my entries, luckily my covered calls are up nice today. Only reason I am staying long airliners is because I will continue to write calls to protect the downside and earn $$ off the shares that way.

    Capture.JPG

    #3515 83 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    KPG any thoughts on OXY here, last time I bought it around 13.00 I did well.

    Although OXY is tempting to get back into again.. i'd play it safe here and hold off. The predictable bounce/spike on oil occurred (because it was oversold) now its more of a gamble so no play for me on it again as of yet.

    #3517 83 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    I am not as fleet footed as you. My timing on my TZA buys could be improved. I am holding my TZA but not adding. Yesterday had me biting my nails.

    I believe it man. Yesterday there was high volume buying.. you can see what happened with stocks like TSLA, NVDA, and other semiconductor stocks. I believe it was mostly a short squeeze. Lots of people shorting at that 23,700 resistance betting on a breakdown, which is why I still said it wasn't wise to short there. I still don't think its wise to short yet - BUT after seeing yet another failure at 23,700 there are now more cracks on this damn and the jenga tower is just a little more wobly.

    Being short is the better risk/reward at the moment, if I was to pick a side..

    #3518 83 days ago

    Betting on more volatility. Just opened a position on VXX, don't follow unless you have a strong idea that the market will become more volatile in the upcoming weeks.

    Bought VXX June 19 $41 calls
    Sold VXX June 19 50 $50 calls

    Net debit of $2.41 (25 contracts)

    Here is my risk/analysis calculation to get an idea of where the P&L curve sits (based on where the stock is at date of options expiration) also factor in this is a hedge play for me since I am long airliners as well.

    Capture.JPG
    Capture.JPG

    #3523 83 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    That is a good risk reward ratio. Actually, quite good. And all you need this index? to do is close above $43.45.
    Is this an inverse index. Up when the market is down?

    Typically yes - it follows the VIX, so essentially when there is fear the VIX will move up. Just betting fear returns soon, since we are still seeing a battle at 23,700 it's really showing some weakness here. Any more rejections and it could start to crack pretty hard.

    Surprisingly the VIX (or event VXX) can be up when the market is up too. It's all about how volatility looks that day.

    #3524 83 days ago
    Quoted from pinballjah:

    I have a May $50/$60 spread. Not looking good. Net cost $2.45.
    Actually I sold the $50 and bought the $55 to reduce my cost to $0.95.

    Buying a call spread has more risk to it as you are now purchasing a premium because of the current implied volatility (IV) - selling for a credit would be a better play as you'd be taking advantage of the IV in your favor.

    If bullish:

    IV is currently low: Buy a call spread for a debit, assuming IV can rise if it starts to move higher so you capture IV increase as an advantage

    IV is currently high: Sell a put spread for a credit, capturing IV premium as an advantage

    If bearish you do the opposite.

    Here is my risk/analysis on the $50/60 spread you did, assuming 10 contracts for example. I know there is more to it as you added another leg or two on it, but you'll get the idea why it was not a favorable position if you were bullish on VXX

    Obviously if the market does in fact rally and move over that 23,700 wall convincingly, we both lose though lol
    Capture.JPG

    #3538 83 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Are we in the "eye of the hurricane"? The initial blast was brutal. The back end of the hurricane could deliver a longer and more sustained blow. Or, it might just peter out with clearer skies ahead?
    You are going to have an unfunded pension crisis get worse, along with local and state governments trying to figure out how they are going to make up lost revenue. Govt Pension funds are way down and $5.2 trillion of pension debt could swamp states on the heals of this shutdown. Alaska, California, Connecticut, Illinois etc. etc. etc.
    Thinking out loud here.

    Ice I like your posts, you're a smart dude and have some good info that I can agree with. From what I can tell, you are bearish on the fundamentals of the economy and where it is headed.

    What is your current reason and conviction to be so heavily invested at this moment? Is it the confidence the Fed will provide enough liquidity to keep the market grinding higher?

    Not trying to wage a battle here at all as clearly the Fed is attempting to prop this up similar to all of the Quantitive easing rounds we saw from 2009-2016 to get the market to rip higher.. but I just would like to know what exactly keeps you in, and do you hedge at all?

    If so, how do you hedge to the downside?

    The big boys stay long with huge positions and very few people know how they profit even if those stocks go down or stay sideways. In fact many of the big boys don't even make most of the profit off the shares themselves.

    Just wondering how you navigate this market and what strategies you are using to hedge your long positions and have downside protection.

    #3573 82 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Man i'm just trying to think it through like you and everyone else KPG.
    The recent Fed action along with the massive fiscal flood of $$ and the reopening chatter gives me some comfort in the short term. But like i said, i fear we might just be in the eye of the storm and i'm not sure how long that lasts. I'm trying to focus on excellent businesses with great balance sheets and little to no debt for the longer term holds.
    For me personally, I'm sitting in 50% cash right now, with big positions in TTD, SHOP, PINS and Apple and a basket of other smaller long term positions. I'm also trading SHOP and TTD, smaller float and large short interest, so the squeeze can produce some wild swings like it did the last several days, and these are stocks i want to own long term anyhow if i get stuck.
    I've used TZA at times to hedge those small caps. I closed out 75 Apple 2021 LEAP call contracts purchased last summer before i wanted to for big gains, but as a result have to pay ordinary tax rates of 37% but just had to take those chips off the table. I'll be looking do the same thing again for 2022 calls if we get close to a retest of the lows.
    The cost of hedging longer term is expensive. For example, buying S&P 500 puts to hedge requires good timing. It costs about 3% a quarter roughly to hedge against a 20% downside move and up until now that was just a drag on performance, and as you noted, especially difficult when the implied volatility is elevated like it is now. I don't find that as a good option for my clients across the board but maybe in certain cases where the need for access to the money is more short term oriented.
    I've used the VIX as a hedge for a few big accounts when it was trading in the teens. That worked out well.
    Covered calls on big positions like Apple. I haven't used much GLD at all and avoided commodities for the last 6 or 7 years thankfully.
    For about 10% of the overall Aum i use a third party unconstrained tactical manager (algorithm) to protect against bigger drawdowns, costs 25 basis points and i can raise that % up if i feel we are heading into a prolonged downturn. They just don't perform as well on the way up.
    Right now I'm around 80% equities and 20% fixed, mostly VGSH, to avoid interest rate and credit risk. High yields and preferred's were down 15-20% recently, and like Buffett i don't like bonds and people shouldn't pay anyone to manage them, especially at these yields, i'll look for alternatives or stay on the short end of the curve for dry powder.
    Currently, I'm getting prepared for move to a higher % to cash via "Irebal" if starts to look like we are just passing through the eye of the storm. TD Ameritrade is my custodian. I can move and rebalance approx. 1700 accounts over 45 different models i use, to all cash short term, add a hedged position in the models or just a higher % of cash, in about 15 minutes, and at zero cost now. There are certain positions in most accounts that are "locked" and don't get rebalanced.
    Apple represents approx. 20% of the Aum, Visa is a distant second i believe, which have given us an excellent cushion over the last few years. Just filed my 13F.
    And we still have to consider the tax consequences as well in taxable accounts but in these times you "can't let the tax tail wag the dog".
    I don't know Kpg, I'm just trying to get prepared as best as possible for whatever comes next short term, with an underpinning of a long term strategy.

    Brotha you are a wealth of knowledge!!!

    Although I still think you screwed up by not keeping IMDN LE

    #3575 82 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    OXY at $12.90 now
    Edit.. I found the reason for today’s OXY sell off, any thoughts on this KPG.. are you thinking wait for retest of lies or just avoid it?
    https://apple.news/ApR_DMiVhR5uugQ1Wf9rgaQ[quoted image]

    I wish I had the time to get in here today. My main bread and butter is running an IT consulting business and we are slammed with all of this COVID stuff, so between that, trading, and getting a little personal time to visit this board it's tough.

    So what I did today was closed my VXX call spread, since I got a nice little move I locked it in for 20% profit. Reason? The gap down and big buying volume today. I saw this dip being bought up with conviction, and it showed me the Dow will re-test that 23,700. Its a magnet right now.

    So I closed that out since it was a hedge, and bought OXY, JBLU, and added to my DAL / AAL / HA positions along with NVDA, STKS, PLAY, etc.

    My downside protection is covered calls so I didn't need the exposure with the VXX spread any longer as today looked very strong.

    Looking at AH futures now (which I normally don't trust the PM futures as they can change often) it seems here we are with another attempt to gap over the 23,700 amount and cause another short squeeze.

    Maybe this is a legit one? Maybe not. I may even re-open the VXX call spread based on the price action I see tomorrow.. but this is why I stayed long with my airliners and a couple other usual plays. I am not convinced yet but as I said before that 23,700 area to me was always the key pivotal area of the markets.

    Keep in mind those AA earnings on 4/22 as well. My mindset changes over/above 23,700 for now.. and if I am long I will hedge but I won't short anything right now.

    Oh also I am bullish on oil again, double bottom at $20/barrel and I think this is a great area to get into energy and oil plays again hence why I bought OXY and also USO Jan 22 $5 calls.. long term bet on oil price recovery.

    #3577 82 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    Looks like it would gap to about 24,300 if it opened now, but it's a long way until morning.

    If thats the case 24,660 is the next resistance level. But it's not as significant as 23,700 is/was.

    #3656 78 days ago

    Funny how options work with USO

    Oil crashes, yet my 2022 call options are up due to a predicted spiked in Implied Volatility.

    Since leap options are not sensitive to time decay like near term expiration options, they get a nice boost of IV even when the market has a volatile down move like today.

    Also, another reason I like USO is the current price is diversified with 50% May (current) contract price and 50% June (next month) contract prices

    I just have a small position on USO but here you can see how I'm in the green even with it being down today due to the IV spike.

    Screenshot_20200420-130501_thinkorswim (resized).jpg
    #3657 78 days ago

    Here's another example of a couple airliner positions I have in one of my accounts and why I use covered calls. Thanks to time decay, they will rise when the stock itself drops allowing you to benefit while being long the shares. Great downside protection.

    Screenshot_20200420-131032_thinkorswim (resized).jpg
    #3659 78 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    June contracts on WTI are still trading at $21.
    There is no place to store Oil and no demand for it.
    Is it going to get much better by June?

    That's what they said while the stock market is crashing, and yet it still massively rebounded. Oil will have some oversold bounces.

    But then again I own the 2022 Calls so I have plenty of time

    #3662 78 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-mohamed-el-erian-sees-us-economy-contracting-10percent-14percent-in-2020.html
    El Erian's viewpoint. I'm going to be on a private Q & A conference call with El Erian and Allianz CEO Walter White (not Breaking Bad lol) on thursday.
    I'll provide a little summary fwiw after the call.

    Awesome.

    Ask them what they think of this 200d MA area on the Dow (23,000) we've seen battling for the last week or so. Does it break down or break out from here? Because clearly as we've seen 23,000 is a significant area right now.

    AA earnings on Wednesday still..

    #3663 78 days ago
    Quoted from marcus0202:

    I have the same question. What exactly do I buy (USO?) and hold for a few years if I think oil will rebound to over $40/barrel?

    The reason oil went negative today is actually because of USO. Check out this article

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2020/04/20/the-us-oil-etf-uso-is-the-culprit-behind-oils-massive-plunge/

    Notice the speculative part that says the Fed could start buying USO.. which is very possible. Don't fight the fed right?

    #3667 78 days ago
    Quoted from D-Gottlieb:

    With oil being this low, why is gas in CA still so expensive?

    Likely because the oil that was used for the current gas at local stations was bought at a higher price prior to refinement. Not to mention the crazy taxes we pay as well, 2.25% sales tax + almost $.53/gallon.

    #3671 78 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    That article is just flat wrong. He is saying the May contract went down today because of USO, but USO hasn't owned any of the May contract in over a week. It currently owns 20% July and 80% June.
    USO would have been slaughtered today if they still owned May.

    Very true but I think the point is by USO rolling those contracts over they may have triggered the domino effect for what we saw today. The problem is the June contracts which I believe they need to sell in a couple weeks, if those trade at $0 or negative then USO is technically worth $0 right now. I don't see that happening but who knows, any plays on oil right now are very high risk and speculative.

    I am in USO for a bounce then I am out. If I am wrong I dont have a ton of cash invested in options (which is why I own calls vs the stock itself) so my downside risk is minimized.

    I wish I understood the mechanics of USO, I just have used it as a trading vehicle over the years when oil came up on my trading radar from time to time.

    #3686 78 days ago