(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

2 years ago



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    #11 2 years ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Anyone here trade the market? We are currently nearing Dow 20K and thought this would be a good time to make a thread and see what other pinheads trade or invest in the market.
    I am a short term trader, with about 90% of my trades lasting less then a week. I have been doing this for almost 15 years now.
    As of today, I have decided to short the stock market here using the DXD ETF (long a large position at $14.00 even) and also using TVIX (ETF that tracks VIX futures, not the VIX itself - highly risky and not an investment ETF by a longshot) avg of $10.17. I will sell on a big spike / market decline and lock in profit, or cut losses quickly if I am wrong (stop loss at $13.00 on DXD and $9.00 on TVIX)
    Currently the Dow is at its most overbought levels I have seen in many years, and DXD is the most oversold I have seen it.
    The Fed meeting going on between today and tomorrow should result in a rate hike, which is supposedly priced in. I am expecting a 'sell the news' scenario and a large pullback.
    Good luck to anyone long in the market right now.. in my opinion, today would be a great day to sell and buy back on a bigger pullback. It should be getting turbulent out there very soon.
    “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
    -Warren Buffet

    Problem with short ETFs and x2 x3 ETFs is they rebalance every day good for day trades only then you pay heavy tax with short cap gain

    #75 2 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    In the spirit of this thread however I don't recommend this to newcomers or novice. I still recommend low cost index fund balanced asset allocation including bonds that's my advice.
    But if you want to know what I do with my fun money or what I'd describe as picking up $100 bills I see on the street. This is my dirty little secret (warning don't try this unless you have brass balls), this is only for mid-high net worth individuals although you could easily try it for a small gain, small downside play. But in order to make serious money you need to have some good money behind you.
    This is what's called option trading specifically selling low out of the money puts.
    Selling low out of the money puts.
    This works best after a sell off like we had at the beginning of the year and it revolves in the belief that stocks typically go up (see my chart in page one).
    Options are sold for a specific stock, a specific price, and expire at a specific time. It's very structured to the minute and to the decimal point.
    You would need a margin account (or a cash reserve) and set up an option trading platform with your brokerage account.
    Let me give an example (made up example).
    Options are sold or bought as block of 100 shares. So one option contract = 100 shares of a stock. So if you were to sell an option for Google $800/share you'd need to be able to buy 100 X $800 = $80K
    Typically you'd only need 10% of that as margin requirement
    Let's not worry about Google because that's a big number, but often I'll sell a small price stock buy sell multiple options such as 5 contracts of Apple which would be 500 shares.
    Also let's say this money is in a taxable account, the gain is taxed at short term gain. The tax is owed in the year the option expires or is closed (bought back) not in the year you sell it.
    They say 95% of option contracts expire worthless (don't execute) which is what you want.
    But if they do execute you are forced (compelled) to buy the stocks at the given price.
    Here's an example.
    Let's say (made up numbers) MO is trading at $52/share and its January 20 2016
    I can sell a put for 5 contracts (500 shares) of MO low out of the money (that means less than the current price) let's just say that MO $50 for March 20 2016 is priced at $1.05
    That would pay me $525 (less $12 commission) so it's $513 paid directly to me.
    That's a fixed 90 days that I need to wait. If MO stays above $50 the contract expires and I just keep the $513 (less taxes when tax time comes).
    If MO drops any below $50 I will be assigned 500 shares at a price of $50/share or $25K outlay. But I made $500 so it's really $24,500 outlay. Or in effect I'd pay $49/share net. That's 2% gain for 90 days.
    This is a play on MO which I figure I'd like to have anyway but this way I get paid to have the option that I only need to buy it if it goes on sale.
    I only sell puts on stocks that I'd like to buy and I sell low out of the money puts so if they do execute I'd get them on sale.
    The problem is if the stock crashes let's say MO drops to $40 I'm still on the hook buying at $50 but it's no worse than if I had bought the stock long and had it decrease in value.
    Often if a stock goes up I can safely sell more puts on the same stock but at a higher price or a longer duration safe I the notion that my original option contract is not going to execute.
    It may sound complex and it's not a miracle get rich quick scheme but it's quite easy for me to pick up several hundred dollar per trade.

    You have to be careful with options as a large spread with bid and ask that being said %90 expire worthless so selling options is better then buying in most cases

    #77 2 years ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    If I'm ever down in Maryland, we're going for a beer and talking options.
    Do you ever buy options? I'm always selling calls and puts.

    I buy but well out there a yr or two less premium decay I bought BAC calls strike $13 jan 2019 for $4.35 sold $13 puts $1.35 same date final call cost $3.00 the stock was at $16 at the time

    #78 2 years ago

    looks like fed was baked into price of market

    #84 2 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    I'm dealing with household names. CAT, AAPL, XOM, MO, PG, INTC, IBM etc...
    These guys trade tightly and I'll sell at limit price start higher than bid ask and work down a penny or so until it executes.

    Selling puts on stock you would be happy to own is always a safe way to trade but if you want to buy to close a low volatility stock like PG can have little volume and a wide bid ask spread

    #141 2 years ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    During the course of my MBA work I concluded that options are not suited for individual investors. Rather, they serve as insurance policies for institutional investors.
    Naturally, folks are free to do as they wish.
    On insurance, we have term policies that expire when the kids are eighteen or so.
    The most important insurance policy we carry is an umbrella policy. Several millions in coverage can be had for a few hundred dollars, an important investment.

    I find they are a good tool any time you want to buy or sell a stock options get you a little extra. Buying insurance is a suckers game. The put options percentage expiring worthless came in above the average of the entire study cited earlier (of all the CME futures options, 76.5% expired worthless) because the stock index options on futures (Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500) had very large numbers of put options expiring worthless, 95.2 % and 93.9% respectively.

    #145 2 years ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Trust me. Do not EVER mess with penny stocks. You are better off going to Vegas and tossing your money in a slot machine, playing blackjack, betting on roulette, etc then messing with those scams.
    I was a former penny stock promoter... long story.. but trust me on this.. every one of those companies are a scam and have nothing but a great story behind them so people will buy shares as they are dumping.

    So you are a former pump and dump conman and you admit it

    #180 2 years ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    What are your favorite REITS to own?
    The ones I have typically bought and held were AGNC, ARR, and NLY. They used to pay a much higher dividend, especially AGNC... but they still pay out very nicely and with rising rates, I expect them to rebalance their portfolios and increase the dividend slowly but surely- we'll see.

    Pay attention to the yield to the price you payed as when a etf/stock go's up the yield drops even if the div stays the same

    #209 2 years ago
    Quoted from Chicoman:

    Question for KPG and some other talking heads in this thread? How do you feel about the Quantative Easing that was done for 6 years that ended in August 2015? The Feds printed $6.1 Trillion bucks....in essence kicking the can down the road so to speak so things didn't crash on their watch. Now it's all coming to a head and IMO ready to pop at anytime. Where should an average investor have their retirement savings? Will the bond market crash first? Causing a stock market collapse later? Just curious to hear what everyone thinks.

    The fed printed money to buy their own bonds and drive yields down kept borrowing cheap. This also drove the value of the dollar down commodities up now with the fed raising rates the dollar is rising and commodities are going down no pop. As for a crash in the bond market that would mean a spike in yields and a good place to invest

    #224 2 years ago
    Quoted from TimeBandit:

    For every short there is a long

    Shot and long is like comparing apples and oranges short sellers do not own stock long investors do. Compare a sale of a stock there is a seller and a buyer yes they can both win as the seller may want the money for a better investment

    1 week later
    #265 2 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    High net worth = $1M+++++
    Not counting your primary residence
    That's what I'd say.
    Your primary residence is an asset but not in the same way as other assets are.

    1Mill will give you between $20,000 and $30,000 a yr in income will not feel like much come retirement

    #268 2 years ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    I like the 2.5% to 3% estimate for a safe withdrawal rate as far as planning goes, so I will echo what you said above.
    Whether you include social security in the model or not is up for debate. I've generally assumed it to be zero for my planning.
    Including primary residence is fine for net worth calculations. But home equity is too illiquid to mean much which is why I prefer to exclude it and only look at portfolio value.

    No withdrawal %2/%3 from div income only

    #285 2 years ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    Not reinvesting dividends (i.e. dividend income) is the same as withdrawing them.

    Getting div income is not at all the same as taking out principal

    #286 2 years ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    When I saw high net worth, I'm talking about individuals who face estate taxes. If Joe Robbie had proper life insurance in place, his family would probably still own the team today. They had to pay the estate taxes. In order to do it, the family sold the team.
    When the IRS taxes estates, it looks at everything.

    My advisor is a close friend of mine. So the fees I pay are extremely reasonably. Even normal fees are not enough to not purchase muni-bonds.
    Muni-bonds make sense depending on the income bracket. Less interest is paid, but it's 100% tax free (unless it's out of state bonds...I only purchase NJ bonds).

    To clarify "out of st bonds" you must buy st city or town bonds in the state you live in for them to be tax free fed and state

    #287 2 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    people spend less as they get older. They don't need to pay as much to commute to work, work clothes, etc. People will have likely paid for their house by they time they are 60-70 and all the furniture big ticket items. My parents are 78-84 and they don't spend much at all. I am not saying you or I will live like my parents but we likely won't be spending as much when we are 75 as we do now.

    What no NIB

    #291 2 years ago

    Go to your local library check out monthly Morningstar weekly Value Line and Barron's

    #294 2 years ago

    I just picked up FDC as a somewhat speculative investment with high risk possible high return

    2 weeks later
    #295 2 years ago

    The next 30 days should tell us a lot

    #297 2 years ago

    Selling options is the way to go as most options expire worthless when I buy it is always well out I have many right now that I bought that expire jan 2019

    #300 2 years ago

    When bonds go up rests will take a hit.If you like yield check out CIM a ETF that uses leverage and loans for high yield a good but a higher risk then average

    #304 2 years ago

    VZ mar 50 strike puts selling near $1

    #307 2 years ago
    Quoted from captainadam_21:

    How to puts like this work?

    When you sell a put you are saying if the stock is below the strike price on expiration you will buy it at the strike price.

    a Mar 17 50 strike price if the stock is at 46 on mar 17 you still pay 50 but it the stock is at $50.01 you keep the dollar

    A option contract is 100 shares so a $1 contract =$100 only sell puts on stocks you would be happy to own

    Be capful buying options. The put options percentage expiring worthless came in above the average of the entire study cited earlier (of all the CME futures options, 76.5% expired worthless) because the stock index options on futures (Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500) had very large numbers of put options expiring worthless, 95.2 % and 93.9% respectively.

    #317 2 years ago
    Quoted from WaddleJrJr:

    Slightly off the topic of stocks, however I know bonds were brought up earlier and I'm kind of looking for more on that.
    Is anyone able to give a good explanation of what to look for in individual corporate bonds, where to be looking, and how to make transactions? I've heard and read a decent amount about them recently, however I've really been struggling to find a place where the hard numbers are available, or a way to do transactions without going through a commercial brokerage firm that takes a significant percentage.
    Thanks

    If you are looking for income a muni bond or a bond that is a town ,city, or state bond from the state you live in no fed or st tax

    #318 2 years ago

    For those of you interested in trading options be careful you need to look at the bid ask spread and the liquidity. When a strike has a .70 bid a $1 ask and trades under 100 contracts a day selling at a profit can get tricky.Options are a good tool to get a little extra when ever you want to buy os sell a stock many times I have sold put 3 or 4 times before buying the stock. In the end I find a extra %1 performance at the end of each year

    #321 2 years ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    "This time is different"...those words are the kiss of death in the investment world.

    Sounds like what people are saying about pin prices

    #325 2 years ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Dow finally hit 20K ! Nice. Took a long time to finally do it..
    Anyone like XOM here? With Trump trying to roll us back in time and get the oil industry up and running vs renewable energy, oil companies could see a big rebound soon. Maybe even SLB would be another good play..

    looked at energy last month did not like much picked TRP

    2 weeks later
    #361 2 years ago

    Now that we are well into earnings what have people bought or sold on pops or drops I bought MET sold half of my CSX

    1 month later
    #407 2 years ago

    Going into second quarter with high valuation anyone buying, selling, buying puts or staying put

    #409 2 years ago
    Quoted from Astropin:

    Just a little update on my Prosper account. Nearly a year in now and I'm averaging 11.7% return which is beating my expectations by a large margin. This is still WAY too short of a time frame to properly judge but I'm impressed with what I'm seeing. I did "customize" my account with certain restrictions on how my money is loaned out and I also customized the percentages assigned to the loan ratings (AA through E). I'm weighted mostly in the B & C class loans (55%) with A & D classes representing 35% and E at 10% (I have 0% in AA).

    Ticker pb ? high beta reasonable pe

    3 months later
    #461 2 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Anyone exposed to Tobacco stocks?
    What the hell?

    bought jan 19 70 strike price calls

    2 months later
    #494 2 years ago

    It has been quiet on this thread thought I would add something. I have been using deep ing the money long calls little premium . Visa dec 2019 has a $3 premium the catch is the call cost $3947 at a $70 strike price the up side this is a option that will not expire worthless as many do

    #496 2 years ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    I forgot to update my last trade.
    Sold 3 Amazon 960 November Puts a couple weeks ago at $33. The stock was $965 at the time.

    Buy a NIB with that money

    #498 2 years ago
    Quoted from mtp78:

    Been holding visa since it went public. Sold half and still have 2k shares....i am 49 and feel like this is a keeper for the long haul.
    When do you guys sell, is it wrong to believe in a company to hold it long term till retirement?

    I have had MasterCard from IPO Visa from 2007 the options are a trade as the two have grown into a high % of portfolio

    #502 2 years ago
    Quoted from Rdoyle1978:

    Read "The Intelligent Investor" ... that should be part of your strategy. Big companies like VISA (used to be Coca-Cola, McDonalds, etc) should be part of your foundation. IMO recently that has shifted to those low cost index funds making WAY more sense, but you shoudl still believe in and hold big companies like VISA. they're not going away any time soon

    With online retail being one of the few areas of retail growth V MA PayPal all will see growth for yr to come

    #506 2 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    everything you know (online retail are going to grow in the years to come) is already be priced into the stock price.
    It's not like Apple year 2000 when they had just computes and software and that was all that was known, then Apple came out with new products like iPod, iPad, iPhone and their stock has gone up from $1.6/share to $156/share since 2001.
    This is accounting for stock splits, but does not include ~$12 in dividends.
    So what I'm saying is yes online sales is going up but that does not mean Amazon, PayPal etc stock will go crazy up because all this is already known and priced into the stock price.
    Everything that is known now is priced into the stock price (future earnings). If a stock is in a stagnate or shrinking market (say cigarettes the is already know too and priced into the stock price). It's not like it will be a surprise if cigarette sales decline they have been for years/decades. It's not a surprise that Amazon sales is doing better than Sears for example, this is already know and priced into the stock.
    Cigarette is not a growing industry used to be 43% of Americans smoked in the 1960s it's down to less than 20%. But that does not mean the cigarette stocks have been poor performers, they have been able to raise prices and buy back stocks EPS is steady as well as pay high dividends (almost 80% of profits) so they are important as income producers while Amazon or some growth stocks (Tesla etc,,) have to pay tons for R&D, expansion, infrastructure to keep growing and pay no dividends. But they are not just growing and not spending money.
    I am not trying to argue that you should buy cigarette companies but just to point out that it is not only important to buy into a growing area. Any stock can be profitable and even a stock in a growing area such as cell phone or internet can lose money. Look at Yahoo was once 100x greater than Google and Blackberry or Nokia were once growing businesses.

    MA with %19 eps growth %36.5 pe is all good

    AMZN with a PE over 250 is a very different beast

    As for you apple at $1.6 a share my MA cost is under $5 a share

    saying that cell phones are a growth sector is funny

    #507 2 years ago
    Quoted from Pintucky:

    I'm hoping YOU "rai" can answer this.
    I have a 29 year old son who has borrowed money from me over the years and I've finally determined I will never get it back! I have it documented in my computer, the date, the amount, and what he borrowed it for. Do you think I could knock off $14,000 for the next few tax years as 'gifts'? In essence, I'm GIVING it to him! What mechanism do you use to verify you gave the gift? Is it just one of the tax forms from the IRS?
    Thanks,
    Mike in Kentucky

    I would not try and take a deduction you do not deserve . If you get audited and there is no cancelled check to your son it will draw attention . Remember with the IRS you are guilty until proven innocent

    #514 2 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    (Apple does 1.6% div but they could give more).

    I never look at div yield as a stock that preforms well pushes yield down. Also many high yield stocks like T grow only %2 yr average yield stock ITW grow %15 yr

    Quoted from rai:

    to a new investor I'd say buy low cost ETFs that are broadly diversified US and international and just keep buying more as time goes.

    3 weeks later
    #525 1 year ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Amazon is worth 1/50 of the whole US market.
    Amazon is not a bad company, Apple (market cap $800B) is not a bad company.
    But they just don't have that much head room.

    With stock buy backs and stock splits there is much room to run

    #547 1 year ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Stock splits have nothing to do with the market cap. It’s funny some people still think that the cost of one share has anything to do with the value of the company. Like to say Google after a 2 split now at $900/share is any different than if no split and it was $1800/share.
    Buy backs are just spending cash or borrowing money to lower the number of shares, still same overall value before or after split or buyback.

    No stock buybacks and splits do not raise the market cap first splits are purely psychological many want to but 100 shares not 10 that is why MA and AAPl split 7 to 1 second with no buybacks your eps contracts as the share count grows with officers options growing share count

    1 month later
    #573 1 year ago

    predictions for 2018

    FB & AMZN will both beat the S&P but there returns will be half of 2017 return

    Pullback of %5 or more between Mar 31 and May 15

    10 yr will break through 3% but end the yr under %2.85

    The xle will again underperform the S&P

    Lets hear your predictions for 2018 no bitcoin

    #581 1 year ago

    Remember bonds when held to maturity are a safe option bond funds are not

    -1
    #583 1 year ago

    Bonds value go's down as rates go up this is meaningless if held to maturity. This does effect the price of bond funds it has just that is has been so long sense rates have gone up they feel safe. NMT a muni bond fund 5/30/08 close $13.61 12/31/08 $9.70 funds do not guarantee return on investment

    #587 1 year ago
    Quoted from rai:

    They’re two different funds you can’t compare the return like that. Vanguard total bond fund has an intermediate term like 7-8 years while the other fund is like 20 years (long term) you should compare long term fund to long term not short term or intermediate fund.
    People shorten up the funds to flatten out or lessen the loss, that means lower return. Think of cash as no maturity time you get no gain but no return. Take a long term bond get more upside but also a lot more downside that’s part of why your fund did better overall but the graph is not steady during the recession it lost money almost like it was a stock and had two years when it’s return was -19% and -14% but also years when it was +30-40% this may be great for returns but it’s not what I buy bunds for which is steady slow growth without a lot of huge gains and losses. There’s a saying take your risks on the stock side bonds should be for safety.
    If you know anything about investing it’s that gains are correlated with risk. IOW big gains you need to take the risk of big losses, I’m saying people usually buy bonds for safety, as seen in my graph above bond fund is a straight gradual up slope the bond fund you list has a graph almost more the stock fund meaning big dip (not as big) and big rebound (not as big). That is not what I look for in bonds, bonds should be the thing that lets you sleep well at night when you see 50% loss on a few months on stocks you don’t want to see 20% loss on bonds at the same time.

    First let me say saying joke was uncalled for went to delete but you had answered . I look at fix income as just that income and rates have never been lower so although higher risk I prefer stocks with high div growth not high yield . I bought BLK in 2010 when div was $1.00 now div $2.50 yield on original investment over %6.I also picked up AMGN this yr %29.67 annualized growth over 5 yr . Picked up ITW this spring %15.47 annualized growth over 5 yr higher risk but when held long term will get high yield on original investment

    6 months later
    #818 1 year ago
    Quoted from JY64:

    predictions for 2018
    FB & AMZN will both beat the S&P but there returns will be half of 2017 return
    Pullback of %5 or more between Mar 31 and May 15
    10 yr will break through 3% but end the yr under %2.85
    The xle will again underperform the S&P
    Lets hear your predictions for 2018 no bitcoin

    After 6 months AMZN still flying high 10 yr bond %2.82 it did break %3 XLE out preforming s@p by a small amount pullback came a little early

    #820 1 year ago
    Quoted from pinballplusMN:

    Not sure how people feel about oil stocks but nog (northern oil and gas) has done well for me as of late. Currently at 330 a share.

    Small cap with less than %5 institutional money a trade but not an investment

    #850 1 year ago
    Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

    Long post alert.
    My wife was going through a tough time after some of her family members passed away and got sick the last couple of years. She got worried about money because of her loss of loved ones even though we are doing well with our saving and investing.
    Because of her new worries she wanted to use an “advisor” since we have a good amount put away. They can get better returns than us being experts. Right? The charge was a 1% fee charged annually or .25% a quarter. Due to her situation and not wanting to argue. I reluctantly said let’s put your IRA and rollovers with him and see how it goes. I will keep managing my IRA’s. That was last year and after I saw a trade confirmation from him of a Mutual fund I already picked and owned I followed his picks and returns very closely. I went back and noticed I beat him pretty good last year on returns and am up 6.9% compared to his 1.6% return so far through June 30 for 2018. I really love running numbers and returns because they tell the truth. I mean if someone says I am a great attorney who knows how good they will do for your case? If someone says they are a great investor, and a lot of folks say that, return numbers can be run to see just how good they are. I think that is so cool and yes I get nervous when I run numbers for myself - like “oh crap am I a genius or a underperforming fool?!” Well anyway, I am doing well enough and we are going to bring her money back over for us to manage.
    My point is not that you should never use an advisor. Some folks just don’t understand how to save, where to put money or how much they need for their short and long term goals. Some just don’t want to learn it, have no interest or are afraid of the results they may find when they run the numbers. These folks should find help ASAP.
    I just think with a little bit of watching your money and always learning you can do a lot on your own and get the satisfaction of making your money grow and achieving your goals due to your decisions.
    If you make a mistake that is ok and you learn from it and get back in the market with what you learned more prepared from your past experience. And yes everyone should use an advisor, attorney, Estate planner, CPA, insurance person etc to help along the way as needed.
    Just speaking from my own experience. Watching you guys do trades here is amazing.

    It sounds like your wife was worried is it set up like a balanced fund with some fixed income

    2 weeks later
    #887 1 year ago

    Same reason Bill Gates sells 10s of millions every yr Gates and Zuckerburg both have charitable foundations they fund with shares

    #888 1 year ago
    Quoted from phil-lee:

    Did anyone else see the report that sales of Facebook stock by Zuckerberg accounted for 80% of the recent huge downturn?

    It was 80% of insider sales

    1 month later
    #922 1 year ago

    200 bil of China tariffs could hit this week not good

    #925 1 year ago
    Quoted from desertT1:

    That link took me to a Fidelity article titled "JD.com CEO was arrested on allegation of rape -police report", but I didn't see much about tariffs.

    Two separate post two separate issues

    #938 1 year ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    4 - JC Penny represents less than 1% of my trading account.

    That's how to do trades not investments yet keep things interesting

    1 month later
    #1011 1 year ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    I’m buying tomorrow. Not sure which stocks yet, but great companies got unfairly smacked today.

    Being that you like to sell puts buy stock selling out of the money puts now that the vix has poped u will get better premium

    #1028 1 year ago
    Quoted from vex:

    Comparing pot stocks to tobacco or beans and rice is why i am so bullish in this sector! The game is in the bottom of the first inning and some are leaving the game because its over
    Time will tell and these stocks are not for the faint of heart.

    lets not forget AOL was top dog back in the days of dial-up lol wait till the 5th inning before placing a bet and dont count your chips while sitting at the table

    2 months later
    #1079 10 months ago

    Funny to see how quiet this thread has gotten now that the market has tanked my best investments last few months selling pets at 36 selling sq 86 selling netflix 342

    #1090 10 months ago
    Quoted from TZBen:

    Fed started tough talk on october 2nd. market has tanked since.

    The Fed has been rasing rates for two yr now they stoped qe three yr back now trying to unwind qe

    #1099 10 months ago
    Quoted from jackd104:

    I’ve got a 13% return on the market over the past few years even with current down turn. So what evs

    what the hell is evs?

    1 month later
    #1131 8 months ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Here’s a calculator I found to shows stock performance over the past decade.
    Goes back 10 years.
    But for example $10k of Amazon if bought in 2009 would be worth $273K today (39% annual gain).
    Heck even GE which is a total bust wouldn’t have lost money if you bought it 10 years ago. (This calculated dividends).
    https://www.historicalstockprice.com/?symbol=Amzn
    https://www.historicalstockprice.com/?symbol=Ge
    Here’s one I did was MO $16/share and I’ve collected $19 in dividends over that time.
    https://www.historicalstockprice.com/?symbol=Mo

    looking at a 10 yr chart at this time you are looking at the low spring 2009 to now not a chart to look at if you want a good representation of how the next ten yr will go

    2 months later
    #1147 5 months ago

    I picked up a little MKC yesterday has anyone else bought anything in the last 10 days

    1 month later
    #1165 3 months ago
    Quoted from BenetBoy78:

    Any thoughts on best for 5-10 years investment?
    1. No meat stocks. Meatless food stocks
    2. Stocks that pay dividends
    3. Marijuana stocks
    4. Ups. FedEx type stocks
    5. McDonalds fast food type stocks.
    Thanks Mike V

    Mike if you want to cover transportation stay away from ups and fedex buy railroad stocks they have a large moat. for high dividend speculative stocks cim and amlp are high payers for long term growth ma and v are best stay away from pot and no meat stocks

    1 month later
    #1231 50 days ago
    Quoted from jayhawkai:

    Very happy for you. If I knew what I was doing I'd join you in options trading, but it's a very apples to oranges comparison of risk between your trades and the buy-and-hold blue chip investors earning 7%.

    Options are very high risk but lucrative. A Oct 18 spy 300 strike price gives you the option to buy the spy at $300 the call cost $2.60 so the spy must be over $302.60 before making money. At the same time a Dec 17 2021 $200 strike call gives you the right to buy the spy at $200 27 months from now the call cost is $96 a $3.50 premium. A 839 day option had a $3.50 preium and a 48 day option had a $2.60 premium. The cost of one is $260 the cost of the other is $9600. invest deep in the money you can hold the option for a yr with no premium deterioration

    #1233 50 days ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    I spent a fair bit of time studying options as part of my MBA. My conclusion is that they're a fine insurance policy for institutions, high risk for the individual trader. I avoid them.

    Being that people have been talking recession since 2013 when the fed stopped QE I find insurance costly. The reson I buy deep in the money is the lack of premium The Dec 2021 $200 strike call is $96 break even $296 the Dec 2021 $300 strike call $25.50 break even $325.50 same strike date break even $296 and $325.50 deep in the money does not end worthless as most options do

    #1237 50 days ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    My basic dislike of options lies in the fact that they're zero sum and have no "real" value. That's just my view of them. I won't dispute that the leveraged nature of them creates a lot of potential gains, but I suspect a lot of people that play with them are setting themselves up for a fall.
    They do have a place and use, though. No question about that.

    If I buy the right to buy an ETF selling at 292 and I can now buy for 200 how does this have no value

    #1241 50 days ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    Because the derivatives contracts are zero sum, there is no intrinsic value that increases. Your loss is exactly offset by somebody else's gain, and vice versa.
    This is not the same as a holding that is underpinned by an asset that can have an intrinsic increase in value. If I sell a stock for a gain, it's not offset by an equal loss to the buyer.

    You act as if option are bit coin I am not sure you even understand them. I bought cvs $37.50 jan 2021 for $16.83 the stock was trading around $52.50 the stock now trades at $61. That $61 gives the option a value of $23.50 that is the spread between 37.50 and $61

    #1242 50 days ago
    Quoted from wtatumjr:

    I'm sticking with 5 to 8% dividend utilities stocks for the most part. It's boring but seemed to work for my dad over all.

    you need to add some technology as well as MA plus V for the groth of online shopping

    #1248 49 days ago
    Quoted from wtatumjr:

    Oddly enough my old roommate from pharmacy school is now CEO of CVS ( they have more than one CEO).
    I do have some "mad money" I put into Barrick Gold. Is has done very well so far.

    Hold the gold till shortly after we see an official recession 2 1/4s of negative GDP gold goes up as the fed cuts rates and the dollar goes down once the fed is done cutting turn gold into cash

    #1251 46 days ago
    Quoted from LITZ:

    Just in case ppl are wondering what sector is leading the pack YTD. The top 4 are made of metal![quoted image]

    Sector my ass you have no utility no consumer staples XlU ytd %22.49 XLP ytd %21.37 not to mention industrials, financials, healthcare the S&P the DAX the dollar these are not sectors

    #1252 46 days ago
    Quoted from LITZ:

    Just in case ppl are wondering what sector is leading the pack YTD. The top 4 are made of metal![quoted image]

    If you take a look you will have done far better with an S&P etf like the SPY or a Nasdaq etf like the QQQ than you would have with a materials etf look at the bottom three all materials. The second issue is except for the GLD commodities etf use futures and rebalances every day so as the value goes up you make less on your investment never invest in leverage etf's the x2 and x3 or any etf that uses futures

    #1254 45 days ago
    Quoted from LITZ:

    Okay sorry I should have said, "Which Futures sector is leading the pack?"
    But, yeah... SPY and QQQs are fun n all. But I love Momo trading! Look at my P/L from the previous week. Now we are up over SPX 2950 and both stock mkt and metals will run higher together. Notice how $DXY was a text book pump n dump!
    I present Roku for your viewing pleasure: but first a little background. Bought SEP 144s last Thursday, then SEP 150s on Friday and finally OCT 165s on Monday. Cashed out with total profit of $4380. On these larger positions I was risking 200.00 per trade vs my normal 100.00 4380/600 =7.30x or a 730% reward : risk ratio.[quoted image][quoted image][quoted image][quoted image]

    I bought some deep in the money roku calls right after earnings it is already up %40

    #1258 39 days ago
    Quoted from JY64:

    I bought some deep in the money roku calls right after earnings it is already up %40

    Closed did not get full %40 but did get near %30 in short time

    2 weeks later
    #1265 20 days ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    Sold 5 Netflix November 290 puts @ $15.77

    ouch

    #1267 20 days ago

    2022 option are now available I bought $50 strike price call DNKN Jan 2022 for $30 with a premium of $1.60 for a call over 2 yr out

    #1269 20 days ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    What were your thoughts in doing this transaction?
    I never go that far out...just looking for your perspective. Thanks!

    By going deep in the money there is little premium by going far out I can hold for a year or more with little premium deterioration I have some SPY 2021 calls that I hope to hold till next Feb so that I pay long term cap gains to save a lot on the tax

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