[SPG 58.86 -6.93 (-10.53%)] - Simon Property Group, Inc. is an American commercial real estate company, the largest retail real estate investment trust (REIT), and the largest shopping mall operator in the US. It owns or has an interest in more than 325 properties comprising approximately 241,000,000 square feet of gross leasable area in North America and Asia.

down 58% in less than a month, from 142.77 on feb 21 2020. also down 50% from 119 in the last 7 trading days. shuttered customers and closeed stores means no retail business, leads to vacancies, meaning no rent. likely results, declining property values.

as for residential, 2008 can happen again. even the most creditworthy might not be able to pay the mortgage if they lose their job/business. foreclosures add to supply, and with fewer qualified buyers to maintain demand, prices should go down. in addition, people may have to tap their 401K at market lows to make ends meet, hurting their retirement prospects.

SPG 44.92 -13.94 (-23.68%) on wednesday march 18.

while the seriousness of the coronavirus outbreak served as a diversion, wall street derived a lot of benefits this past month from government policy decisions. the actions taken appeared to address certain aspects of the financial system that may have been in disarray. the result: with 0 interest rates, unlimited liquidity, virus stimulus, and stocks on sale, wall street appears positioned for a possible run courtesy of uncle sam. despite the bleak global/national economic outlook, watch wall street discount it.

anyone subscribe to this theory:
thursday will be a manipulated up day so that americans can better enjoy their holiday weekend. any carnage will be postponed into next week.

Gilead Pours Cold Water On Report That Sent Market Soaring: "Anecdotal Reports With No Statistical Power"

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/gilead-pours-cold-water-report-sent-market-soaring-anecdotal-reports-no-statistical-power

here is an oil ETF that had a good day on tuesday.

ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil
[SCO] 54.03 +18.54 (+52.24%)

intraday SCO traded north of $65, up 80%.

guess they didnt give any consideration to getting paid $1 billion dollars to take possession of 25 million barrels of oil and store it on americas fruitless plains where they park their fruitless planes.

fruitlessplanes (resized).jpg

cemeteries might present an investment opportunity. they could be repurposed as parks and advertised as a place where you can rest assured that every body is maintaining social distancing of 6 feet.

sixfeet (resized).jpg

another Green Day on the boulevard of broken dreams.

why get excited about dividends when the stock price is reduced by the amount of the dividend when they are paid [a net gain of 0], and generate taxable income at the same time.

good thing for the global financial system that this essential business remained open during the lockdown.

federated (resized).jpg

with all of their bailouts/stimulus/printing, the fed is causing firms/businesses/individuals who actually earn their money to become extinct.

"are you better off than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? We talk about the unemployment lines... If all of the unemployed today were in a single line allowing two feet for each of them, that line would reach from New York City to Los Angeles, California."

how long is todays line given current numbers, knowing that each of them has to maintain six feet of social distancing instead of a mere two feet.

12 deleted posts out of the first 40 on this page.
pretty good ROI.

if he were still around, i believe that 'irrational exuberance' fellow would have some advice for todays 'investors'.

wow.
$70 to below $7,
back above $84,
then as low as 28c
in a four year span.

AMC

the total open interest in call contracts expiring this friday appears to be around 320,000. all potentially in the money as the maximum strike price offered was $9. these options alone control 32M shares of the 56M float.

4000 new reactions in matter of minutes on the AMC yahoo board:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/community?p=AMC

NOK volume last 5 days

Jan 27 659,151,148 [3 hrs remaining]
Jan 26 377,091,300
Jan 25 296,379,300
Jan 22 29,080,400
Jan 21 22,054,900

in an attempt to mitigate damage, robinhood releases promo spot featuring a montage of regular traders entitled ...

All My Children

looks like 'retail' poked the bear this past week and the big boys didnt like it one bit. starting yesterday afternoon they decided to show america who's boss. might not see those levels for a while.

they would tell you, "i was just playing by the book".
holdembook (resized).jpg

turnaround tuesday: markets on fire !

turnaround tuesday.gif

interest rates continue to rise.
10yr up another 14 basis points today to 1.53%.

the bond market is just another crack in the dike.
the call is going out for more 'hans' on deck.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
hans brinker (resized).jpg

...

this isnt your daddys stock market anymore. much faster. so, be nimble. sometimes it is better to "own for 10 minutes what you want to own for 10 minutes". dont always bet on black. there will be times to bet on red.

wesley is the last guy to be taking financial advice from.

today something more appropriate for a casino makes sense.

"betting with both hands"

speaking of index funds:

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

SPY HAS RECOVERED +164.9 [+74%]
FROM THE MARCH 2020 LOWS.

MAR 05, 2021 [383.6]
MAR 23, 2020 [223.0]
ADD DIVDNDS PD 4.3
==============
+164.9

care to venture a guess as to how much of that 165 point gain was attributable to the ~250 cash trading sessions [9:30-4:00ET] during those 50 weeks [1600 trading hours]?

.




.

***** ZERO *****

in fact, SPY ** LOST ** nearly 40 points during those cash sessions. if you bought the open and sold the close each day, you would be down 18%.

SPYs entire gain occurred overnight in the futures market, after first making up for 40 pts lost during the cash sessions, a combined total of 200+ points.

check out AAPL. all gains overnight.

snp 500 (resized).PNG

AAPL

+65.00 overall from MARCH 23, 2020 to MARCH 5, 2021
+80.00 overnight / -15.00 during the day.

an even better strategy is making use of 'covert' calls.

didnt MGM already pop 300% in 3 months on zero news?
going from $6 to $24 [mar 18 2020 thru jun 8 2020].

im not down on the sportsbetting ap angle either. i would think the barriers to entry in that market would be pretty low and foresee ample competition. the fallout should be reduced vigorish and generous promotions in order to retain/attract customers at the expense of margins.

also, CZR [caesars] from $6 to a recent high of $105, up 1600%.
pre-covid high was $69.

i wish ice had told me vegas wasnt going to stay closed sooner.

and how about PENN?
up $10 off fridays close [to over $140], in the first 6 min of trading monday mar 15. that gain alone was 200% of its share price approx a year ago when it was sub $5 - a 25x bagger since that time. pre-covid high was only $38.

many stocks have a lot of hopium already priced in at current/recent valuations. im not sharing the optimism that 'reopening' is necessarily going to lead them higher.

decent sell offs
last FOMC jan 27 at 2ET
and powells 12ET speech on mar 4.
markets showed interday strength heading into each event.

public service reminder.. steps up and the elevator down.

so, 'be aware' of the HUGE returns options traders are going to reap tomorrow.

touting a sports recommendation whose line has moved 4+ points over the course of the week, leaving those who might have followed your gameday post with a loser, while you still won...

its almost like telling people, "i loaded up on PINS in the teens, im in the catbird seat, but you johnny-come-latelies can still buy it while its on sale in the $70s".

DRAKE -2 ... 53
WICHITA ST 52

hemphills line
10 minutes, 1-3 FG, 1-2 FT, 3 points, 4 rebounds.
looks like his 3 points were the difference.

NFT : non-fungible tokens

sounds like more 'blue sky' created out of induced scarcity. things are getting pretty ridiculous out there. someone is going to have to start another thread to discuss this since pinside loves its art, collectibles, music, and video games.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token

The American digital artist Beeple's work Everydays: The First 5000 Days was the first NFT of an artwork to be listed at prominent auction house Christie's and sold for 69.3 million USD on 11 March 2021. The day before the auction, Beeple said, "I actually do think there will be a bubble, to be quite honest. And I think we could be in that bubble right now."

powell and yellen to give congressional testimony today and tommorow related to pandemic reponse and economic security act. first in about 30 mins, 12PMET tuesday. also 10AMET wednesday.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2021-march.htm

https://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=407279

any time these clowns open their mouths
is a potential waterfall moment.

ill never forget this advice, courtesy of art cashin.

"the market is like boiling an egg, timing is everything."

artcashin01 (resized).jpg

and dont forget his last name, either.
its cash-in for good reason.

jerome powell going retro with the feds new
'here i come to save the day' media campaign.

mister trouble never hangs around because
theyve got the situation well in hand.

rockets blasting off at the end... classic stuff.

ever try the "whee" options strategy ?
its ride can be a lot more fun.

with 70 minutes remaining in the trading day this past friday [mar.26] you could have bought 1000 contracts of SPY 393.0 same day calls for $7K plus commissions and netted over $300,000 by the close.

a couple hundred dollars a month for the next 125 years in the time it takes mom to watch jeopardy and wheel of fortune on a given night.

in this real life example, a 1.45% move in SPY returned 4300% on the option position, 3000x the return of holding the etf.

$7,000 invested in SPY etf during those 70 minutes returned $100. $7,000 invested in the 393 calls for the same 70 minutes returned $300,000. $7K buys only 18 actual shares of SPY, while 1000 option contracts control 100,000 shares.

dont count on a comeback.
this time, its for real.

"turn those machines back on"