I figure this may cause eyerolls amongst the investment wizards, but I'm a big fan of Mr. Money Mustache. His articles are so enjoyable to read. I stay out of the forum as some of the people there are batshit crazy IMO! Unlike pinside

You should post on bogleheads. Not that there's bad advice here, just that posting this kind of recommendation based on your particulars is exactly what they do.

Some spending models take age into consideration. Bernicke's I think. You can do some projections with firecalc and cfiresim.

Personally I find it difficult to estimate healthcare costs.

There are some arguments against SWR, not the least of which is agreeing upon a safe percentage. Wade Pfau did a study showing 2-3% SWR going forward. However that was in 2010 and I believe he has revised that upward. EarlyRetirementNow recently wrote a massive series of blogs about SWR. He had some good points although he comes across as a bit of a dick!

I think of SWR as a savings target, but I don't explicitly use it for spending models as I plan to spend the principal. I intend more flexibility than a strict SWR would allow. "FWR" if you will If you have the option to ease into retirement, via part-time work, SLE Sterns, or other income streams, even better. I read a study (which of course I can't find now!) that showed the first five years of retirement pretty much determine the long-term success rate.

Also I recently found this awesome site http://www.flexibleretirementplanner.com

It uses Monte Carlo sims like most other sites, but you can run additional sensitivity analyses with all sorts of parameters to tweak. It's my favorite site of its kind.

The S&P dropped all the way down to where it was waaay back on January 11, 2018!

I read it but I didn't really get it.

"We're in a vicious cycle here. If the yields go up, you have to sell stocks. If you sell stocks, and they crash, yields come back down," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR.

Why do we have to sell stocks? What's the actionable advice?

Tbh I don't understand the big players in the bond market. Seems like a house of cards. I can't see how what they do applies the average investor. ELI5!

Looks to me like if you had listened to Mr. Hogan last week you'd have missed out on the biggest single week gain in 6 years!

Sold some tanked funds (hello international!) at thanksgiving time for tax loss harvesting and to offset a gain from earlier in the year. Probably will do the same with small cap.

I don't do the TLH partner hunt. I just leave in money mkt and repurchase after a month or so.