Stock Market Traders?

Is there something historically significant about tomorrow’s date and the stock market?

If they were down days they could not have been too disastrous.
The worst days for the stock market mostly have been in the fall and late summer:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/08/04/top-20-largest-dow-jones-average-losses.html

http://fortune.com/2015/08/24/stock-market-august-decline/

Poor poor wealthy guy.

Don't forget about the $6000 catch-up contributions if you are 50 or older to further lower your MAGI.

So $24000 standard deduction (married filing jointly) plus $18500 for your 401k contribution maxed plus $18500 if a spouse maxes out plus $6000 x 2 for both catch-up if age is high enough. Total = $73000

I meant when the catch-up contribution is directly put from pay to the employer plan. I am not sure how many people have access to that but I do. I think it depends on the employer plan.

older article but explains the issue:

https://finance.zacks.com/catch-up-401k-contributions-pretaxed-over-50-1815.html

The DOW is down just over 10% from its high.

(26616-23860)/26616= 10.35%

I also think it would be reasonable to make the argument that about 26000 should be the basis for calculating the % drop since the peak was for a very short period of time but the market did stay above 26000 for about 16 days.

For the last three months or so it seems every time the market gets ready to blow through 25000, Trump announces some more tariffs and the market goes back down. hmmmm Russia must be enjoying this along with the artificially high gas prices.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/03/01/investing/dow-jones-trump-tariffs/index.html

https://money.cnn.com/2018/03/22/investing/dow-jones-trade-war-china/index.html

https://globalnews.ca/news/4245599/trump-tariffs-steel-aluminium-stock-market/

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/10/white-house-releases-list-of-goods-hit-by-200-billion-in-tariffs.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cstory%7C&par=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-futures-drop-u-threatens-115320551.html

The pensions are not very large for government employees in the modern retirement system. The majority of retirement is in a 401k like system with the same individual contribution caps as everyone.

I don't think that funding is in stocks but instead a trust fund.
Federal employees take the jobs knowing their pay will be a lot less than what they could be making in other jobs in their area, but they understand that they get a few benefits that make up for the lack of the immediate rewards of a much better salary that the private sector would offer.

http://www.neonnettle.com/features/1469-mark-zuckerberg-caught-dumping-billions-in-facebook-stock-ahead-of-crash

The S&P is back up to an all-time high. Is it time to put 401K money in a safe investment (bond fund)???

I agree to some extent. However, I feel pretty confident in saying that the market will dip significantly below where it is today within the next 10 years (likely much sooner). Buying back in at a lower price would be money saved and increase the amount of profits on the way back up. Buying back in does not have to be at the lowest price. It just has to be lower than where you sold.

I am close enough to retirement that I could stay out from today if I sold and earn around 2% per year in the bond fund to be ok even if I never bought back in, but my wife is in for a more immediate retirement so her's is more risky.

I agree about doing it as a philosophy throughout a career will likely not work out. I have personally done it twice. Once I lost a small amount of gain (maybe 5%) because I did not think it through well before acting and I ended up sweating for many months hoping to get a decent price to buy back in while fearing the market was going to go up big, and the second I saved a small amount of losses (maybe 8%). I feel this time is different because we are in a time of unprecedented upturn and I also have age in my favor unlike when I was 38 or 43. If I did it this time I would go in with conviction that I would not buy back ever unless the price is below where I sold while also gaining about 2% on very safe bonds. Sitting out would also provide the benefit of protecting my retirement savings and I am looking at 8.5 years to be eligible for full retirement. I don't really want to go through another 30 to 40% drop again like we did in the 2006-2008 era.

They are separate entities. We have separate financial resources and divide the expenses fairly equally for personal reasons.

It does work if I don't need to get back in but was keeping that as an option. The market could go up 20% in the next 12 months (unlikely but possible) and I would be fine missing out on that rise. If it did go back at least 5% below where I sold after the 20% rise sometime years from now then I would have done better than if I stayed in throughout. I also have the option to work longer than my full retirement date if I need to make more money later.

I am referring to a limited fund choice 401k type situation so individual stocks are not in this equation as an option. Individual stocks are for personal savings in this case which is a different issue for me. I also have limitations because of my job as to how much I can put in investment sectors. Believe me, I wish I could buy about triple the Apple stock I presently own.

In my case, if and when I put the 401k type money in the bond fund, it is a government backed bond that cannot lose money. The only way it would lose is in the case of a collapse of the government. In that case everybody would lose anyway.

It is kind of like a savings bond which also cannot lose value:

https://www.tspinvesting.com/g-fund/
"G Fund
The G Fund is by far the safest fund offered by the Thrift Savings Plan, hands down, it is truly a remarkable security. It’s one of the very few instances in the investment world where you literally cannot go wrong. This fund allows investors to earn interest rates similar to those of long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds, but without any risk or loss of their capital. The TSP G Fund is managed by the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board. The G Fund buys non marketable U.S. Treasury securities that are guaranteed by the U.S. Government. If you don’t remember anything else about the G Fund please remember that you cannot lose the money you invest with this fund and the interest is guaranteed by the U.S. Government."

Yes. The only loss would be the interest value of the bond fund as compared to the inflation. An example, if I had $100,000 in and it got 2% interest I would end up with 102,000 after one year, but the inflation would devalue the buying power. That is also happening with middle class salaries over the last 15 years. Salaries have not been rising nearly as much as the inflation and cost of living.

I don't count that because of other investments that are not in a 401k and are diversified. The only other safe option I have for this 401k type money is a market risk bond fund that usually does about 1.5 % better than the G fund. I would probably do about half G and half the market risk bond fund if I did it.
The problem with the market risk bond fund is that when the interest rates rise the fund goes down and we are headed toward and are due for higher interest rates for years it seems.

I bought some Cronos, a marijuana company, as a gamble about two weeks ago. It has been interesting watching it yo-yo.

cronos (resized).JPG

Catching a falling knife? Why JCP?

Along with JCP and Sears:

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/GE--Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

I sincerely hope this ridiculousness does not not end up affecting our friends north of the US:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/canadian-marijuana-investors-could-face-lifetime-bans-from-entering-us-2018-09-13

Have you been buying?

Amazon will be one to own once the market bottoms.

You all sure seem optimistic on the market. I could see Amazon going to close to 1000/share in 2019 just as easy as 2000/share. A recession will eventually drag amazon down just like everything else. Then it will be time to buy.

I am optimistic for both amazon and apple, but the recession would drag them down heavily short term. Long term, plus five years, I believe they both are winners. I will be buying a lot of both after the market tanks about 35%.

Waiting to buy until the market is closer to 17000.

That article is from two years ago and he was predicting the market would go to around DOW 5000 from around 22000 for a 17000 point collapse. I am predicting the market will likely go to around 17000-15000 (a loss of about 9000 to 11000 points), not to lose 17000. A 40 to 50 percent correction is not that hard to see when we are already down close to 20 percent.

I also would expect the market to bounce back to 20000 within a few years of such a correction.

The phones have not been exciting since the IPhone 6 and 6 Plus release 4 years ago. The next big release should revitalize Apple and will likely be the flip smartphone which will probably be 2020 but should be 2019 if they want to be first of the major manufacturers.

A foldable one piece screen will be a game changer.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.inverse.com/amp/article/48633-apple-foldable-phone-future-of-flexible-screens

Have you never been to a casino? They are one of many databases that would have your face.

DOD employee by chance?

Yeah, it has been killing it the last 10 days. I bought 800 shares at $10/share. I looked at it as a pure gamble at the time, and have decided to let it ride to see if it does something like $50 or $100 a share.

I really don’t give a rip about inheritance in relation to 401k and IRA. I am not earning and saving to make an aristocracy, build an empire, or other family members wealthy. I am earning and saving to protect my way of life through to the day I die including elderly care. If there is anything left then lucky whoever or whatever entity gets it.

Also, 401k taxes are a middle class tax. Rich people don’t need to rely on a retirement savings account and poor people don’t often have one at all or don’t have enough to matter.

I read yesterday that TDAmeritrade is also doing free trades now.

https://www.tdameritrade.com/pricing.page

It seems like the right time for a 15-20 percent correction at a minimum.

If DOW 29300 from around Thursday of last week is considered the starting point of a correction, the -20% would be approximately DOW 23440.

NWL

Buckle up. The virus is starting to spread in Iran and Italy. If it gets to overpopulated India and Pakistan there may be no more hope of controlling the spread. The markets can't help but to react in the short term. A 30 to 40% correction would not be surprising.

Give it time, this virus is just starting and the deficit has been growing for years.

To put it in perspective, the DOW was down 8.3% at the closing bell yesterday from the high on 2/12/20. It does not take much to get to 30% which would be DOW 20686.

The Olympic committee announced yesterday they have a 3 month window to decide if they are going to cancel the Olympics, and flatly stated it will be canceled if a pandemic is happening. Brazil just announced their first case of the virus. Iran which has porous borders has lost control of the virus already.

11:30 PM pre-market data is showing DOW down about 1.3% which is close to 400 points.

The DOW is down 12.8% from around the high on Feb. 12.

Dow 25766 from 29551

My post from Jan. 27:

If people shut in more, there is a lot of spending that just never happens or is never made up such as holiday goods, restaurants, movies, sports attendance, less gas sales, airlines, trains, buses, etc.

Did you ever sell off that JCP stock?

NY/Vermont you mean.
Say no to any politics

AAPL should beat the market because they always seem flush with a huge cash stockpile.

US Stock futures down around 1% right now (Sunday 8 PM):

https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

I wish I understood it better as well.

I do kind of have a small gut feeling the US markets will be up in the morning trading hours tomorrow, but that same gut tells me nothing about what could come tomorrow afternoon.

Their story sounds like it is from the TV show Silicon Valley.

I just sold off my Apple stock because I feel it will go down like it did last week and I can scoop it back up at a lower price again. It was in a Roth IRA so the profits which are well over 100% of the investment cost are not taxable.

The airlines are not looking healthy right now with the start of canceling domestic flights on top of the already canceled international flights.

I wonder how the rental car industry is doing. Flights are down so rentals through that source are down, but could people be renting cars more for long distance travel as an alternative to flying and other public transportation?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-cure-for-stocks-not-yet-found-dont-rule-out-50-of-the-market-being-wiped-out-155725587.html

Interesting perspective in that if the market drops to about 50% it would only take the market back to where it was not too many years ago.
For example, in 2013 the DOW hit the record high around 14800 which is about 50% below the high of approximately 29551 on Feb 12, 2020.

You thumb me down for posting facts? All I did was put some perspective into what a huge drop would mean in relation to the last ten years.
Are you scared or being defensive?

It was a good comeback in the last hour before the markets closed for the weekend.

mini 1987

The US, the #1 oil producer, can't afford to produce at these levels. A large percentage of US rigs will be shutting down similar to 2014-16.

down 7% circuit breaker just went off.

It sounds like you are in great shape. No wonder you are not concerned about a virus that strikes older people 50+ viciously and people with health issues including obesity. Duh

7:49PM the DOW premarket trading is up 1.94 %

I am not sure what your point is but here is the DOW for the year 2009:
2009 stocks (resized).JPG

I think the question is not whether to stay in the market or to get in, the real question right now is when to get in with any cash you have.
I personally feel it is too early beyond buying and selling short term. The other option if you have cash right now that has been proven to be tried and true is dollar cost averaging, buy in lots as it moves. Dollar cost averaging is much easier now that so many brokers offer free trades. It just takes discipline to stick with that method.

https://www.investopedia.com/where-to-buy-shares-of-apple-on-weakness-4799252?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&yptr=yahoo

They can always and usually do yank or lower the dividends if their profits are down and the company is struggling.

Strange day in the market. It was up big and now down a little.

Premarket is down about 2.15% already.

The premarket circuit breaker of 5% may be going off tonight in the US.

Now down 3.27%, 5% in premarket is the stopper if it gets there.

What about an FDIC insured money market?

I have been waiting for something like that since late 2018:

Down 9%

This thing may trip the second circuit breaker level.

It got to down 9.25% and then went back to down 8.3% and seems to be resisting getting worse.

I think there are enough people that look at individual stocks and jump in when they see low prices that it will not get that down today.
Dollar cost averaging when buying on the downfall is another factor to keep the downside from happening as fast.

In the DOW premarket it is at 20627.

The high on Feb 12 was 29551. (29551-20627)/29551 = 30.2% drop

From 15 days ago in this thread:

dow30% (resized).JPG

We really needed this day to not be a huge drop in the market. Thank goodness people can have a little more peaceful weekend.

These seem pretty similar to me:
2002-2009:
2003-2010 (resized).JPG
2010 to 2020:
2010-2020 (resized).JPG

I believe it will be somewhere around/between DOW 17000 to 11000. Buying anywhere in that range for the long term (2 to 5 years minimum) should be fine if you put the money in stocks that are not going to have the potential for bankruptcy. Companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google are not going away any time soon. Fully diversified blue-chip or S&P based funds should be ok in that range as well.

Wouldn't some other cash rich company such as Apple buy Tesla if it becomes very cheap? I feel Tesla has a large enough fan base and infrastructure that the name/brand still would have a future even if they can't stay afloat on their own finances. In that scenario the stock could still lose most of its value but I think the brand can survive.

Carnival might get a bailout, but I personally would prefer of the major companies, only essential companies get bailouts such as the major airlines.
Carnival is a luxury product. The Government can't give money to everything/everyone. The things that affect our daily lives are most important.

What I was trying to imply was that in the cruise industry there would be new companies popping up to replace the bankrupt ones. There certainly will be less demand for cruises for a long time now that people see the bad side of it.

Dominoes, Papa Johns are two

Me a couple times. I protected my retirement account in late August 2019. I plan to put it back into the S&P fund somewhere between DOW 11000 and 17000.

They don’t know yet whether having had the virus gives immunity.
There have been reports of people that had the virus several weeks after being deemed over it. Hopefully those were just cases where the person did not fully get over it.

Little gestures by those that are in good position to do so certainly can make a difference in people’s lives that may end up having a much harder time getting through these trying economic times. Yesterday I read that Replay Museum had a big business night a few nights ago but decided to shut down afterwards because they felt it was the right thing to do to keep people safe. I will make sure next time I visit Replay to buy a few extra passes to help them with their losses. For the person who does house cleaning a couple times a month for us, who is the nicest person I know, I just threw in an extra 60% for no reason other than because I am worried she and her husband may lose a lot of work. Even if what I give is not a huge amount I hope it helps people realize someone cares and are/is thinking of them.

We very easily could be headed to a few years of deflation and higher interest rates.
Here is an article about how things went in the early 1930’s.
https://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/dep1929.htm

Click Click Click Click....that is the sound of the roller coaster getting near the point of another drop again

Definitely 17k.

150+ Boston hospital workers now have the virus.

During this financial whirlwind I have continued to max out my biweekly retirement contributions into the S&P based fund my 401k/tsp offers. Today I re-started putting in optional catch-up contributions (for age 50+) at a rate that will max out ($6500/yr) after 11 bi-weeks (to dollar cost average that sort of).

The money I had been putting in the 401k/tsp over the last 23 years was pulled out back in August and remains in a low percentage accrual safety (G Fund). I plan to consider getting some of that money back into the market between DOW 17000 and 11000 (if it gets back in that range) in chunks around 10% at a time.

I am ok with not getting back in, but will at least partially at some point even if it is in the 20 to 30 thousand range.

Does your 401k have a money market option?

Edit: loneacer beat me to it

Things are dropping fast over the last minutes of trading. I guess people are profit taking and don't want to get stuck holding over any bad weekend news.

Here is the S&P chart for 2006 to March 2014:

s&p2006-2014 (resized).JPG

Extending it to the end of April is a lot easier for people psychologically than saying the end of June. This way they can keep on extending it a little when each date nears and it helps subdue some of the panic and stark reality of what we have in store for our year. This is shaping up to be an iron man triathlon rather than a 5k or even a marathon.

I guess it depends on where you live but food items at the grocery store have been reasonably plentiful in my area this week. Still no tp at the stores though.

Are you saying that pessimism is the same thing as "rooting for"? I would call it being realistic and pragmatic.
If I say I am planning on buying at some lower market level then that is not "rooting for" it to go down, but instead is merely putting a value on when it is worth buying in to me.

I am sorry, but honest predictions/feelings are not trolling. I have predicted a bottom between 17k and 11k in this thread and I think that is very realistic. I do not believe in sugarcoating and leaving people in shock because they did not see it coming. It is important to hear everyone's real views on where we are heading. If we only say positive things then there will be a lot of shock down the road.