(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

4 years ago

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#596 3 years ago
Quoted from Pintucky:

I just hope the market starts out tomorrow the way it ended Thursday and Friday last week. I've been doing quite well on money I invested between 2000 and 2010. I just need 6 months or maybe 1 year in order to have enough to cash out, pay off all debts and have enough left over to have a decent rest of life. I'm 70, and to me, this is the critical stage of my entire life of trying to make and save money. If the market will just stay steady for awhile, modest increases and no major 'downs', that's all I'm hoping for. I'm just afraid of tomorrow, for some reason. It could be a big sell-off day. It was tempting for ME to take it while I can and seriously thought of cashing in at least half tomorrow, but decided tonight not to. If there are many others who actually do that, well . . . you know the rest of the story!

Is there something historically significant about tomorrow’s date and the stock market?

#601 3 years ago
Quoted from jayhawkai:

The day after MLK day is Black Tuesday, replete with massive losses.

If they were down days they could not have been too disastrous.
The worst days for the stock market mostly have been in the fall and late summer:



1 week later
#642 3 years ago
Quoted from jayhawkai:

Sounds like you've been taken in by the biggest scam in the world, the stock market!

Poor poor wealthy guy.

2 weeks later
#726 3 years ago
Quoted from PW79:

You can access 401K funds early without penalty.
You can also access them at a lower tax rate.
It's called a "Roth conversion ladder"
Just convert a year of expenses plus 5 years of inflation from your 401K into a Roth IRA. You will pay tax on the conversion. Wait 5 years for the conversion to be qualified as a contribution & boom. No 10% penalty plus you deferred the income to a point when you're at a lower bracket since you're retired.
You need 5 years of cash for this. Or maybe a HELOC and some cash. Whatev, it can be done if your house is paid off & you're debt free.
This makes maxing out your 401K less scary IMO. also depending on AGI that $18.5K contribution could make or break your Roth eligibility. A married couple can drop their MAGI by $37K via 401K plus the new standard deduction is $24K isn't it? Shit I dunno yet. Anyway that is a $61K AGI/MAGI reduction that might let folks have Roth access. You can always grab your Roth contributions (not growth) at any time with no tax/penalty. Shit, you can "borrow" contributions from your roth for a very short term too IIRC.
If your taxable account is large enough a married couple can grab apx $80K yr in long term cap gains & pay $0 to the fed too.
I can't wait to retire. I'm gonna wake n bake errday & eat pancakes like a fucking boss.

Don't forget about the $6000 catch-up contributions if you are 50 or older to further lower your MAGI.

So $24000 standard deduction (married filing jointly) plus $18500 for your 401k contribution maxed plus $18500 if a spouse maxes out plus $6000 x 2 for both catch-up if age is high enough. Total = $73000

#733 3 years ago
Quoted from PW79:

Unless I'm mistaken one cannot write off traditional IRA contributions if they have access to an employer sponsored account (401K)
That's double dipping & not allowed
Or did something change?
Or am I mistaken?

I meant when the catch-up contribution is directly put from pay to the employer plan. I am not sure how many people have access to that but I do. I think it depends on the employer plan.

older article but explains the issue:


#738 3 years ago
Quoted from Brad76:

Google tells me 20% is a crash, think we are at around 15-16%...

The DOW is down just over 10% from its high.

(26616-23860)/26616= 10.35%

I also think it would be reasonable to make the argument that about 26000 should be the basis for calculating the % drop since the peak was for a very short period of time but the market did stay above 26000 for about 16 days.

4 months later
#837 2 years ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

You better hope guys like us make money in the market to pay huge taxes to pay your fat govt pensions.

The pensions are not very large for government employees in the modern retirement system. The majority of retirement is in a 401k like system with the same individual contribution caps as everyone.

#842 2 years ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

Thougt it was 3 top years avg. salary X number of years X 1 or 1.1% = annual benefit?
So $100,000 a year top earning years X 30 years X 1.1% = $2750 a month for life after age 62. Is that it? That is pretty good. Private companies don’t offer that anymore.
Is the federal employee pension fund invested in stocks? Seems like it could be a major conflict of interest in who decides which company’s stock gets purchased.

I don't think that funding is in stocks but instead a trust fund.
Federal employees take the jobs knowing their pay will be a lot less than what they could be making in other jobs in their area, but they understand that they get a few benefits that make up for the lack of the immediate rewards of a much better salary that the private sector would offer.

2 weeks later
#886 2 years ago
Quoted from phil-lee:

Did anyone else see the report that sales of Facebook stock by Zuckerberg accounted for 80% of the recent huge downturn?


3 weeks later
#891 2 years ago

The S&P is back up to an all-time high. Is it time to put 401K money in a safe investment (bond fund)???

#896 2 years ago
Quoted from smailskid:

Really you shouldn't try and time the market like that. You should set your asset allocation and leave it alone if the market is up or down.
Assest allocation is one of the most important decisions you can make in investing. It helps to stay the course in good times and bad rather than make moves (aka guesses) that get you whipsawed.
Assest allocation is a very individual thing based on your specific situation but you do not have to be an expert to do it right. Plenty of resources out there to help you along. Boglehead forums is a good place to start.

I agree to some extent. However, I feel pretty confident in saying that the market will dip significantly below where it is today within the next 10 years (likely much sooner). Buying back in at a lower price would be money saved and increase the amount of profits on the way back up. Buying back in does not have to be at the lowest price. It just has to be lower than where you sold.

#897 2 years ago

I am close enough to retirement that I could stay out from today if I sold and earn around 2% per year in the bond fund to be ok even if I never bought back in, but my wife is in for a more immediate retirement so her's is more risky.

#901 2 years ago
Quoted from smailskid:

I agree with you that the market will likely dip significantly in the next ten years or sooner.....but..... when? and by how much? How much could it rise between now and when this significant correction hits? After you have sold, when will you know it is the right time to buy back in? To make money you have to make 2 correct decisions...when to get out and when to get back in.
So I agree....if you sell it right and buy it right you can save/make money and yes you don't have to be perfect.
I could go on but in general, while you could be right this time, it is not best the way to invest long term for the average investor.
However its your money..... If you have a well thought out thesis and great confidence that you are right..... then there is only one thing to do and that is back up your conviction with $$$$.
Personally I think it is a game that most will lose over time.

I agree about doing it as a philosophy throughout a career will likely not work out. I have personally done it twice. Once I lost a small amount of gain (maybe 5%) because I did not think it through well before acting and I ended up sweating for many months hoping to get a decent price to buy back in while fearing the market was going to go up big, and the second I saved a small amount of losses (maybe 8%). I feel this time is different because we are in a time of unprecedented upturn and I also have age in my favor unlike when I was 38 or 43. If I did it this time I would go in with conviction that I would not buy back ever unless the price is below where I sold while also gaining about 2% on very safe bonds. Sitting out would also provide the benefit of protecting my retirement savings and I am looking at 8.5 years to be eligible for full retirement. I don't really want to go through another 30 to 40% drop again like we did in the 2006-2008 era.

#902 2 years ago
Quoted from smailskid:

Ideally these would be treated as two accounts in one portfolio with the same objective. You seem to be looking at them as separate entities.

They are separate entities. We have separate financial resources and divide the expenses fairly equally for personal reasons.

#904 2 years ago
Quoted from rai:

What if the market continues to rise for the next year? You’d need to wait for it to just come back below today’s price.
It doesn’t work. You are not smarter than everyone else in the world, we don’t know what the market will do tomorrow let alone next week or next year.

It does work if I don't need to get back in but was keeping that as an option. The market could go up 20% in the next 12 months (unlikely but possible) and I would be fine missing out on that rise. If it did go back at least 5% below where I sold after the 20% rise sometime years from now then I would have done better than if I stayed in throughout. I also have the option to work longer than my full retirement date if I need to make more money later.

#905 2 years ago
Quoted from rai:

Stock dividend are also 2% fwiw
bonds aren’t giving anything except they are less likely to lose money (safety) but you pay for that safety with lower returns.
If you had stocks and bonds say 70:30 you’d never have to worry because you’d have best if both which is what most people do especially as they get older.
If stocks drop you’ll have greater percentage in bonds which you can trade out for stocks (rebalance).
There is a lot more proven benefits to asset allocation with rebalancing than there is for timing the market.

I am referring to a limited fund choice 401k type situation so individual stocks are not in this equation as an option. Individual stocks are for personal savings in this case which is a different issue for me. I also have limitations because of my job as to how much I can put in investment sectors. Believe me, I wish I could buy about triple the Apple stock I presently own.

#910 2 years ago
Quoted from smailskid:

Impossible to actually give specific advice without knowing the specifics of your situation. But in general sounds like you could be unnecessarily taking on to much risk in going to 100% bonds in your 401k account ....unless the majority of your savings is held in your unqualified accounts. It also sounds like you feel you are to heavy in stocks. Again I would develop an asset allocation and stick with it.

In my case, if and when I put the 401k type money in the bond fund, it is a government backed bond that cannot lose money. The only way it would lose is in the case of a collapse of the government. In that case everybody would lose anyway.

#912 2 years ago
Quoted from jcoble:

Government bonds can and do lose value. If you buy a bond yielding 2% and rates rise to 3%, you will have to sell your bond at a discount in order to induce a buyer to purchase yours over the new one at 3%. The only way you are guaranteed to not lose money is purchasing a bond at or below par and holding to maturity, which is rare.
A LOT of bond funds have lost money over the last year as interest rates have gone up.

It is kind of like a savings bond which also cannot lose value:

"G Fund
The G Fund is by far the safest fund offered by the Thrift Savings Plan, hands down, it is truly a remarkable security. It’s one of the very few instances in the investment world where you literally cannot go wrong. This fund allows investors to earn interest rates similar to those of long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds, but without any risk or loss of their capital. The TSP G Fund is managed by the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board. The G Fund buys non marketable U.S. Treasury securities that are guaranteed by the U.S. Government. If you don’t remember anything else about the G Fund please remember that you cannot lose the money you invest with this fund and the interest is guaranteed by the U.S. Government."

#915 2 years ago
Quoted from jcoble:

That is a very specific investment, not available to the general public. While technically it cannot lose value through credit or market risk because of its special governmental status, it is still subject to inflation risk, and its long term performance relative to the stock market (or to even a moderate risk asset allocated portfolio) is abysmal. You are in effect losing money by owning it, but doing so safely in the process.

Yes. The only loss would be the interest value of the bond fund as compared to the inflation. An example, if I had $100,000 in and it got 2% interest I would end up with 102,000 after one year, but the inflation would devalue the buying power. That is also happening with middle class salaries over the last 15 years. Salaries have not been rising nearly as much as the inflation and cost of living.

#919 2 years ago
Quoted from smailskid:

That is not the only loss. There is the opportunity cost of not owning a moderate risk asset allocated portfolio as mentioned in Jcoble's post.

I don't count that because of other investments that are not in a 401k and are diversified. The only other safe option I have for this 401k type money is a market risk bond fund that usually does about 1.5 % better than the G fund. I would probably do about half G and half the market risk bond fund if I did it.
The problem with the market risk bond fund is that when the interest rates rise the fund goes down and we are headed toward and are due for higher interest rates for years it seems.

2 weeks later
#932 2 years ago

I bought some Cronos, a marijuana company, as a gamble about two weeks ago. It has been interesting watching it yo-yo.

cronos (resized).JPG
#933 2 years ago
Quoted from Trekkie1978:

Just bought 3,850 shares of JC Penny (JCP) @ $1.73
This brings my position up to 5,000 shares.

Catching a falling knife? Why JCP?

1 week later
#949 2 years ago
Quoted from jwilson:

I bought some weed stocks (Canopy Growth) myself on a lark back in April at $24, figuring the legalization was probably going to skyrocket it come July. My friends laughed and others thought the run up from $10 was all it had to give.
[quoted image]

I sincerely hope this ridiculousness does not not end up affecting our friends north of the US:


3 weeks later
#1010 2 years ago
Quoted from Trekkie1978:

I’m buying tomorrow. Not sure which stocks yet, but great companies got unfairly smacked today.

Have you been buying?

Amazon will be one to own once the market bottoms.

3 weeks later
#1062 2 years ago

You all sure seem optimistic on the market. I could see Amazon going to close to 1000/share in 2019 just as easy as 2000/share. A recession will eventually drag amazon down just like everything else. Then it will be time to buy.

#1064 2 years ago
Quoted from topkat:

I am optimistic on amzn. They did 56. billion last quarter, which was more than before. They also crushed their earnings..
Yes there could be a recession, but amzn makes so much of its money from storage by large companies, I cant see that changing regardless.
but sure its gamble

I am optimistic for both amazon and apple, but the recession would drag them down heavily short term. Long term, plus five years, I believe they both are winners. I will be buying a lot of both after the market tanks about 35%.

1 month later
#1105 2 years ago
Quoted from badbilly27:

Alright, give me your top 10 stock investments, you're making right now with your own money. Market is tanking, probably gonna be a good time to buy if you have a little put away to invest for the eventual ride back up. Apple is still getting some of my investment dollars. Sitting on too much cash not to be a solid buy.
Others? Interested in thinking.

Waiting to buy until the market is closer to 17000.

#1107 2 years ago
Quoted from badbilly27:

Not trying to be political at all. After you posted I started searching the web for 17,000. Came across this article. I don't agree with much but a nice prediction...

That article is from two years ago and he was predicting the market would go to around DOW 5000 from around 22000 for a 17000 point collapse. I am predicting the market will likely go to around 17000-15000 (a loss of about 9000 to 11000 points), not to lose 17000. A 40 to 50 percent correction is not that hard to see when we are already down close to 20 percent.

#1109 2 years ago

I also would expect the market to bounce back to 20000 within a few years of such a correction.

1 week later
#1116 2 years ago
Quoted from PanzerFreak:

Anyone else surprised that news such as Apple reporting lower sales in China impacts the entire market? Apple seems surprised that their sales could even slow...well Apple a lot of people don't have $800-$1k to drop on a new phone every year. Technology is lasting longer today, and phones can now be used for years versus having to buy a new model every year or two. Pretty ridiculous.

The phones have not been exciting since the IPhone 6 and 6 Plus release 4 years ago. The next big release should revitalize Apple and will likely be the flip smartphone which will probably be 2020 but should be 2019 if they want to be first of the major manufacturers.

#1122 2 years ago
Quoted from Chitownpinball:

LOL, i still use the code. F that, no one is getting my finger print or my face....

Have you never been to a casino? They are one of many databases that would have your face.

#1124 2 years ago
Quoted from sataneatscheese:

Not paranoid... but legally, you don't have to tell a law enforcement officer you phone password. However, refusing to provide biometric data like a thumb print or face scan is obstruction of justice... so passwords are the way to go.
With that said... my phone stays unlocked
DOW 28,000 by December.

DOD employee by chance?

1 month later
#1129 2 years ago

Yeah, it has been killing it the last 10 days. I bought 800 shares at $10/share. I looked at it as a pure gamble at the time, and have decided to let it ride to see if it does something like $50 or $100 a share.

5 months later
#1198 1 year ago

I really don’t give a rip about inheritance in relation to 401k and IRA. I am not earning and saving to make an aristocracy, build an empire, or other family members wealthy. I am earning and saving to protect my way of life through to the day I die including elderly care. If there is anything left then lucky whoever or whatever entity gets it.

#1199 1 year ago

Also, 401k taxes are a middle class tax. Rich people don’t need to rely on a retirement savings account and poor people don’t often have one at all or don’t have enough to matter.

2 months later
#1271 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

I remember when stock trading cost $19.99 then $14.99 now E-Trade is joining the free trade club. I’ve often thought of moving to a cheaper platform but I put my new money is in Vanguard where I get free ETFs and my options are at E-Trade and never got around to switching to a lower cost broker.

I read yesterday that TDAmeritrade is also doing free trades now.


3 months later
#1341 1 year ago

It seems like the right time for a 15-20 percent correction at a minimum.

If DOW 29300 from around Thursday of last week is considered the starting point of a correction, the -20% would be approximately DOW 23440.

#1349 1 year ago
Quoted from Kkuoppamaki:

Exxon and Chevron certainly has nice dividend returns, but I'm not sure I'm that hot on energy/oil right now. With that, any suggestions on solid dividend payers with potential for growth in share price?


4 weeks later
#1426 1 year ago

Buckle up. The virus is starting to spread in Iran and Italy. If it gets to overpopulated India and Pakistan there may be no more hope of controlling the spread. The markets can't help but to react in the short term. A 30 to 40% correction would not be surprising.

#1446 1 year ago

Give it time, this virus is just starting and the deficit has been growing for years.

To put it in perspective, the DOW was down 8.3% at the closing bell yesterday from the high on 2/12/20. It does not take much to get to 30% which would be DOW 20686.

The Olympic committee announced yesterday they have a 3 month window to decide if they are going to cancel the Olympics, and flatly stated it will be canceled if a pandemic is happening. Brazil just announced their first case of the virus. Iran which has porous borders has lost control of the virus already.

#1461 1 year ago

11:30 PM pre-market data is showing DOW down about 1.3% which is close to 400 points.

#1467 1 year ago

The DOW is down 12.8% from around the high on Feb. 12.

Dow 25766 from 29551

#1470 1 year ago
Quoted from Beechwood:

We had a family gathering on Feb. 8 and I told everyone to transfer their portfolio into safe havens because the market was overpriced and about to go much lower. They scoffed at me and just bragged how their retirement funds were up 30% from a year earlier.
Oh well, I tried.

My post from Jan. 27:

Quoted from DCFAN:

It seems like the right time for a 15-20 percent correction at a minimum.
If DOW 29300 from around Thursday of last week is considered the starting point of a correction, the -20% would be approximately DOW 23440.

#1477 1 year ago
Quoted from mbwalker:

The thing I don't understand is what if consumer goods are disrupted for a short time? So what...things like Apple phones, etc. will just rebounce and catch back up. Does the anxiety the past few days justify the devaluation in stock? In other words, why does maybe a 5% dip in short term sales seem worse than driving the market down 12%? If I can't buy a table because of a shortage...I'm still going to buy later.
Seems like 'Shoot yourself in the foot to spite your face.' mentality. I know the markets don't like uncertainty, but it sure seems to like 'stupid' some days.
Somehow I need to turn this into a 'cargument'. LOL

If people shut in more, there is a lot of spending that just never happens or is never made up such as holiday goods, restaurants, movies, sports attendance, less gas sales, airlines, trains, buses, etc.

#1492 1 year ago
Quoted from Trekkie1978:

Me too.
I’m sitting in doctors office, don’t have actual numbers for what I did. I will update tonight.
Covered my Apple calls. I think I covered my first solar calls too, not 100% sure.
Sold all the Exxon, rolled it into Chevron. Reason for this was to take a loss against my gains for 2020. Stayed with a similar company.
Bought 1,000 shares of American Express.

Did you ever sell off that JCP stock?

#1495 1 year ago
Quoted from topkat:

Super Tuesday next week. Bernie from California won’t be liked by market I suspect.

NY/Vermont you mean.
Say no to any politics

#1498 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

All you stock traders what do you make of this AAPL day low $256 Current $275
I mean that’s a $20 swing, is that just a matter of one share trading that low not to be mistaken for the majority of sales or was there a turning of the tide? Did it hit some support level?
Basically I’m long stocks and have lost money on paper but never considered to sell at these blood bath prices although I’m sure some have got out and back in lower. But to me I’m just looking at holding for years or decades so not concerned overly about paper losses.

AAPL should beat the market because they always seem flush with a huge cash stockpile.

#1504 12 months ago

US Stock futures down around 1% right now (Sunday 8 PM):


#1506 12 months ago

I wish I understood it better as well.

I do kind of have a small gut feeling the US markets will be up in the morning trading hours tomorrow, but that same gut tells me nothing about what could come tomorrow afternoon.

#1536 12 months ago
Quoted from okayestpinballer:

Wondering if RobinHood will survive the Coronavirus? 2nd straight day of outages. So much for that $8 billion dollar valuation?!

Their story sounds like it is from the TV show Silicon Valley.

#1574 12 months ago

I just sold off my Apple stock because I feel it will go down like it did last week and I can scoop it back up at a lower price again. It was in a Roth IRA so the profits which are well over 100% of the investment cost are not taxable.

The airlines are not looking healthy right now with the start of canceling domestic flights on top of the already canceled international flights.

#1576 12 months ago

I wonder how the rental car industry is doing. Flights are down so rentals through that source are down, but could people be renting cars more for long distance travel as an alternative to flying and other public transportation?

#1587 11 months ago


Interesting perspective in that if the market drops to about 50% it would only take the market back to where it was not too many years ago.
For example, in 2013 the DOW hit the record high around 14800 which is about 50% below the high of approximately 29551 on Feb 12, 2020.

#1590 11 months ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

Best stocks i ever bought were purchased at the end of 2008 - beginning of 2009 when the market was in complete panic
I ought quality companies with 4-6% dividend payments
Collected the dividends while i waited for the market to work out
Most of those stocks ended up being 300% gains
this week feels very similar to 08/09

You thumb me down for posting facts? All I did was put some perspective into what a huge drop would mean in relation to the last ten years.
Are you scared or being defensive?

#1591 11 months ago

It was a good comeback in the last hour before the markets closed for the weekend.

#1603 11 months ago
Quoted from sir_tankalot:

Hey guys,
How do you think Monday's open is going to look?
I don't know...
- Lyman

mini 1987

#1610 11 months ago
Quoted from cait001:

32.09, baby! (-22.26%)
looks like Saudia Arabia and Russia are having an oil slapfight while the rest of the world is still shaky from Coronovirus. Not the best news for stronks!

The US, the #1 oil producer, can't afford to produce at these levels. A large percentage of US rigs will be shutting down similar to 2014-16.

#1611 11 months ago

down 7% circuit breaker just went off.

#1658 11 months ago
Quoted from Trekkie1978:

Last week, I was in Universal Studios Orlando for 3 days and Epcot for 1 day.
I actually saw people wearing masks in the parks (plane too). My feeling, is if you're that afraid, why even bother going into the park.
To show you how much I'm not afraid of the coronavirus, I was away last week, I'm running a half marathon April 4, going to NY Auto Show the following weekend, then Disney to run all 3 Star Wars races (5k, 10k, & half marathon) April 16-20, then another half marathon the last weekend of April.
Again, if it was as contagious as the media makes it out to be, why wasn't the LA Marathon canceled?

It sounds like you are in great shape. No wonder you are not concerned about a virus that strikes older people 50+ viciously and people with health issues including obesity. Duh

#1686 11 months ago

7:49PM the DOW premarket trading is up 1.94 %

#1717 11 months ago
Quoted from Trekkie1978:

First, I typed this off the top of my head. I just looked up the actual numbers. Here they are:
Jan 6, 2009 - 9,016 (closed)
Jan 20, 2009 - 8,276 (open)
March 9, 2009 - 6,547 (close)
If you ask me, I think that’s pretty darn accurate.

I am not sure what your point is but here is the DOW for the year 2009:
2009 stocks (resized).JPG

#1720 11 months ago

I think the question is not whether to stay in the market or to get in, the real question right now is when to get in with any cash you have.
I personally feel it is too early beyond buying and selling short term. The other option if you have cash right now that has been proven to be tried and true is dollar cost averaging, buy in lots as it moves. Dollar cost averaging is much easier now that so many brokers offer free trades. It just takes discipline to stick with that method.

#1757 11 months ago

They can always and usually do yank or lower the dividends if their profits are down and the company is struggling.

#1768 11 months ago

Strange day in the market. It was up big and now down a little.

#1838 11 months ago
Quoted from sataneatscheese:

So... 3/12 will be worst dow day of year...

Premarket is down about 2.15% already.

#1843 11 months ago

The premarket circuit breaker of 5% may be going off tonight in the US.

#1848 11 months ago
Quoted from DBLM:

In the morning for sure. NBA just suspended the season after a Utah player tested positive. This and other cancellations is going to cause a panic.
Keep your powder dry, boys and girls. There are going to be opportunities to nibble coming up soon.

Now down 3.27%, 5% in premarket is the stopper if it gets there.

#1854 11 months ago
Quoted from phil-lee:

Cash is not King, but close. Not Fixed, not Guaranteed, I am speaking of cash in hand, or close. Money Market cash, circumspect.
Get cash, that is what the Big Guys are doing when they aren't buying debt.

What about an FDIC insured money market?

#1859 11 months ago
Quoted from oPinsesame:

I’ll be a buyer when Dow hits 18,000. I’m calling the bottom.

I have been waiting for something like that since late 2018:

Quoted from DCFAN:

Waiting to buy until the market is closer to 17000.

#1862 11 months ago

Down 9%

This thing may trip the second circuit breaker level.

It got to down 9.25% and then went back to down 8.3% and seems to be resisting getting worse.

#1864 11 months ago
Quoted from MotorCityMatt:

Going to be shut down by noon. 20% is the go home circuit breaker.

I think there are enough people that look at individual stocks and jump in when they see low prices that it will not get that down today.
Dollar cost averaging when buying on the downfall is another factor to keep the downside from happening as fast.

#1902 11 months ago

In the DOW premarket it is at 20627.

The high on Feb 12 was 29551. (29551-20627)/29551 = 30.2% drop

From 15 days ago in this thread:

dow30% (resized).JPG
#1947 11 months ago

We really needed this day to not be a huge drop in the market. Thank goodness people can have a little more peaceful weekend.

#2093 11 months ago
Quoted from Pinballer67:

I'm 53 and I've never seen anything remotely like this.
Who knows where the bottom is? The Fed slashes rates to near zero and the DOW has its worst day EVER as a response?
I guess there's no value to be found, anywhere.
Welcome to Bizarro Land.

These seem pretty similar to me:
2003-2010 (resized).JPG
2010 to 2020:
2010-2020 (resized).JPG

#2096 11 months ago
Quoted from DBLM:

I agree with your charts and the comparison. This has been a factor that shapes my thinking. The question that everybody has to ask themselves is where on the chart you think you are right now. My bet and the actions I took today translates into that I think that we still have a long ways to go.

I believe it will be somewhere around/between DOW 17000 to 11000. Buying anywhere in that range for the long term (2 to 5 years minimum) should be fine if you put the money in stocks that are not going to have the potential for bankruptcy. Companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google are not going away any time soon. Fully diversified blue-chip or S&P based funds should be ok in that range as well.

#2102 11 months ago
Quoted from Davidus56:

I’ve done very well in the market over the years. I’m 70% cash, long gold, Gilead. I sold out of the money Puts on Google, Amazon and Apple today. I believe the DOW could drop to 10,000-15,000. I’m short Tesla, Carvana and Carnival. Frankly I see no scenario where Tesla or Carnival survive.

Wouldn't some other cash rich company such as Apple buy Tesla if it becomes very cheap? I feel Tesla has a large enough fan base and infrastructure that the name/brand still would have a future even if they can't stay afloat on their own finances. In that scenario the stock could still lose most of its value but I think the brand can survive.

#2103 11 months ago

Carnival might get a bailout, but I personally would prefer of the major companies, only essential companies get bailouts such as the major airlines.
Carnival is a luxury product. The Government can't give money to everything/everyone. The things that affect our daily lives are most important.

#2106 11 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

There are actually 3 major cruise lines. They provide a lot of jobs. Not just for jobs on the ships, but every port of call employs people in the tourist trade. Choosing who gets a bailout and who does not will be tough. I seriously doubt that Florida will let Carnival go without a big fight. And Florida has 27 electoral votes. That's is political clout.

What I was trying to imply was that in the cruise industry there would be new companies popping up to replace the bankrupt ones. There certainly will be less demand for cruises for a long time now that people see the bad side of it.

#2120 11 months ago
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

How can I invest in food delivery services?

Dominoes, Papa Johns are two

#2162 11 months ago
Quoted from cait001:

I can't remember who said they were looking at an 18k DJI but I apologize if I ever doubted you.

Me a couple times. I protected my retirement account in late August 2019. I plan to put it back into the S&P fund somewhere between DOW 11000 and 17000.

#2178 11 months ago
Quoted from noob-a-tron:

I thought our immune system was the vaccine. Once we get it second time around it wont do much am i missing something?

They don’t know yet whether having had the virus gives immunity.
There have been reports of people that had the virus several weeks after being deemed over it. Hopefully those were just cases where the person did not fully get over it.

#2242 11 months ago
Quoted from DBLM:

We are in an unprecedented situation. dcfan has been saying for a while now levels that he thinks we will reach. I kind of think we will be somewhere in the 16000-18000 range when we settle out. I look at it this way: we are just about a week into this becoming real for the US. How long do you think it will be a major factor. Picking a number at random, lets say 10 weeks. We are 1/10th of the way through it. Cases and deaths are a lagging indicator of where the spread really is. When those numbers catch up, it is going to have a psychological impact on people and markets. We are going to have periods of what passes for normal or stable punctuated by gut punches (death milestones, quarantines and measures, celebrity deaths, companies closing, when it personally impacts you, etc) that are going to take the market down. Psychologically, try to prepare yourselves that these things are going to happen, that they are natural in the sense that this is normal course of action for an event like this, and that every milestone represents one more point on the path of getting through this. Try to stay normal and in my case, I have seen that most of the COVID threads on here are actually not beneficial to me and have drained them. Just a lot of random stuff punctuated with politics and the like that are counterproductive to me. I am in a mindset that this is going to suck, it is going to get worse, but it is only for an amount of time. I realize that I am in a much better position than most, and that I should practice being more grateful and appreciative to others. I am trying to help out others in my community, and ask that others that can do likewise.

Little gestures by those that are in good position to do so certainly can make a difference in people’s lives that may end up having a much harder time getting through these trying economic times. Yesterday I read that Replay Museum had a big business night a few nights ago but decided to shut down afterwards because they felt it was the right thing to do to keep people safe. I will make sure next time I visit Replay to buy a few extra passes to help them with their losses. For the person who does house cleaning a couple times a month for us, who is the nicest person I know, I just threw in an extra 60% for no reason other than because I am worried she and her husband may lose a lot of work. Even if what I give is not a huge amount I hope it helps people realize someone cares and are/is thinking of them.

#2463 11 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

With all of the money the govt. is going have to print, it seems that inflation has to be an issue somewhere in all of this. Or if the economy is in the the dumper will inflation even be a consideration? Or is deflation the one one that will hammer us?
I have heard it said this if you think inflation is bad, wait until deflation comes on.
If inflation is the next thing then interest rates will have to go up, a la Paul Volker?
Thoughts on economic direction? Especially interest rates?

We very easily could be headed to a few years of deflation and higher interest rates.
Here is an article about how things went in the early 1930’s.

#2727 11 months ago
Quoted from Shapeshifter:

Dead cat bounce?

Click Click Click Click....that is the sound of the roller coaster getting near the point of another drop again

#2754 11 months ago
Quoted from Rondogg:

Which do you think we will see first, 29k or 17k?

Definitely 17k.

150+ Boston hospital workers now have the virus.

#2756 11 months ago

During this financial whirlwind I have continued to max out my biweekly retirement contributions into the S&P based fund my 401k/tsp offers. Today I re-started putting in optional catch-up contributions (for age 50+) at a rate that will max out ($6500/yr) after 11 bi-weeks (to dollar cost average that sort of).

The money I had been putting in the 401k/tsp over the last 23 years was pulled out back in August and remains in a low percentage accrual safety (G Fund). I plan to consider getting some of that money back into the market between DOW 17000 and 11000 (if it gets back in that range) in chunks around 10% at a time.

#2759 11 months ago
Quoted from loneacer:

What if it doesn't? What if Monday was the low? Will you get back in at some point? Typically there would be a retest of Monday's low in a few months, but you never know.

I am ok with not getting back in, but will at least partially at some point even if it is in the 20 to 30 thousand range.

#2815 11 months ago
Quoted from Whysnow:

not much funds here...
How do I turn a 401k into cash?
I would be happy to just park it on the sidelines and wait.

Does your 401k have a money market option?

Edit: loneacer beat me to it

#2824 11 months ago

Things are dropping fast over the last minutes of trading. I guess people are profit taking and don't want to get stuck holding over any bad weekend news.

#2893 11 months ago

Here is the S&P chart for 2006 to March 2014:

s&p2006-2014 (resized).JPG
#2910 11 months ago
Quoted from taylor34:

I'm not sure what good the April 30th date does when everyone already knows it's going to drag into June at a minimum (barring some sort of treatment or cure miracle). I feel like they're delaying the complete shutdown hoping for a treatment option.

Extending it to the end of April is a lot easier for people psychologically than saying the end of June. This way they can keep on extending it a little when each date nears and it helps subdue some of the panic and stark reality of what we have in store for our year. This is shaping up to be an iron man triathlon rather than a 5k or even a marathon.

#2912 11 months ago

I guess it depends on where you live but food items at the grocery store have been reasonably plentiful in my area this week. Still no tp at the stores though.

#2927 11 months ago
Quoted from loneacer:

I agree with you. I think short term predictions on individual stocks, or even sectors is fine. I'm just seeing too many people on various sites rooting for the whole market to go to zero or for capitalism itself to be replaced. For myself, I welcome the chance to buy more at lower levels, but I'm compassionate and I'm thinking about the folks nearing retirement or recently retired who are watching their dreams be shattered.

Are you saying that pessimism is the same thing as "rooting for"? I would call it being realistic and pragmatic.
If I say I am planning on buying at some lower market level then that is not "rooting for" it to go down, but instead is merely putting a value on when it is worth buying in to me.

#2940 11 months ago
Quoted from loneacer:

When I see people above saying 9-11k on the DOW, I see trolling. I don't want to see the pain that would cause millions of people. That's beyond stock market losses. That's real world poverty and job losses.

I am sorry, but honest predictions/feelings are not trolling. I have predicted a bottom between 17k and 11k in this thread and I think that is very realistic. I do not believe in sugarcoating and leaving people in shock because they did not see it coming. It is important to hear everyone's real views on where we are heading. If we only say positive things then there will be a lot of shock down the road.

#2963 11 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

I'm thinking this info belongs here on this thread.
Macy's will furlough the majority of its 125,000 employees
Judging from the stock's action it looks like this news is already baked in.
Surely, Macy's will not be the last.

Two retail companies I'd be sad to see go, that I occasionally shop at because they have decent selection of merchandise, are Macy's and Bed Bath and Beyond. They both have been struggling since well before the virus. I hope they will find a way to survive this calamity.

#2973 11 months ago
Quoted from cait001:

oil has dipped under $20 a barrel!

At this rate we might see gas at around $1.25/gallon soon.


#2978 11 months ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Apparently it's 99 cents already at a few stations around the country. I filled up Saturday for 1.69 here.

I believe the last time I paid less than a dollar was 1998.

#3155 11 months ago

Are Russia and the Saudis really close to an oil production reduction agreement or is that just something that was said yesterday to boost the markets?

#3179 10 months ago
Quoted from Richthofen:

So, I’m not a doctor, but the more we know about it the more we can make educated decisions. If we devise an antibody test, and people can prove they’ve recovered or had it but never showed; we can allow some opening up. Peak infection stays peak for a while if we maintain distancing... which means our hospitals are running at full tilt for a long time, which ain’t great.
Best case scenario: we develop an antibody test and rules around it and slowly open back up in 3-6 months. Worst case scenario: vaccine candidates reveal flaws and get pushed back another 12 months, head of state of a g-7 nation dies of Covid; oil tensions or trade tensions lead to an embargo on selling medical equipment to the USA ... plenty of unknowns

It sounds as though Boris Johnson is not doing well with his battle with the virus.

#3189 10 months ago
Quoted from thedarkknight77:

Agreed!! Zero interest rates and the Fed pumping trillions into the market is what is keeping this market up. Sadly, investing has never been more pathetic. Valuations are way too high vs. historical norms........but where else are you going to put your money? We are forever #$@& because the federal govt. thinks it’s their job to keep the market propped up........This is no free market. Zero interest rates create the worst economic behaviors. The cost of borrowing Money should never be free!

You nailed it.

It was expected to some degree, but everything is being devalued: cash, real estate, salaries, mortgages, debt, stocks, 401ks, personal possessions, etc.

#3191 10 months ago

Anybody want some federal coronavirus bonds? What percent return would they provide? 1%?
The interest rates make it more attractive to just hold cash than to tie up money for a nothing return. This has been a problem since about 20 years ago.


#3196 10 months ago
Quoted from Atari_Daze:

Any nationwide salon chain public? They might have a short lived spike once the country comes off lockdown?

Ulta is one of the bigger ones:


#3302 10 months ago

What will happen to the markets once all of the unemployment claims actually can be processed? A lot of people have had a hard time getting their unemployment applications to go through the online systems from what I have read.

Just an example:


#3345 10 months ago
Quoted from Shapeshifter:

Where is this money coming from??

In the end it will come from Generations Y, Z, and beyond.

#3351 10 months ago

This is starting to remind me more and more of the late 80's.
Higher taxes will almost certainly have to come within 5 years to offset the debt that is building.

#3362 10 months ago
Quoted from iceman44:

This debt is borrowed at such low rates the runway will be much longer than 5 years. A few trillion here or there is nothing these days. LOL
And btw, that's the actual COST of saving 60,000 people. Not to be crass or insensitive.
But undoubtedly, if you aren't taking advantage of doing Roth Conversions while taxes are on sale, up to the 24% marginal bracket, then you can't see the higher taxes on future RMD train coming down the track!
Plan accordingly, we have done a ton of Roth conversions for clients that are eligible, not beyond the 24% income bracket, pay taxes while equities are down AND get the tax free ride back up.

My understanding is that I cannot convert to a Roth in the TSP. I also am not sure how that would help when I am making a lot of income now as compared to when I would be retired and only getting a small pension and social security and a very low tax bracket in comparison.

#3418 10 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

Because even with the new production cutbacks, the news quotas are still pumping more than current demand. So we will still run out of storage, just the same.

Also, the US oil companies need oil to be around $50 a barrel to make money on their rigs because the processes to get/produce the oil are much more costly than the middle east. I am sure that many of the US rigs will be or already have been shutting down.

#3424 10 months ago
Quoted from sataneatscheese:

What do you guys think. Does oil finish higher or lower on Monday?

Guessing oil prices just seems to be a crapshoot that depends on the actions of the Russian, Saudi, and US governments along with a few other bit players. My percentages guess would be up just based on the low price right now which can only go but so much lower.

#3432 10 months ago
Quoted from sataneatscheese:

What do you guys think. Does oil finish higher or lower on Monday?

Was this already posted? It seems a cut in production has been agreed on. One would think the price per barrel should trend up some.


#3491 10 months ago

We can’t even get lysol and hand sanitizers, how are we going to reopen the economy?

As long as the virus is lingering the only thing I will do outside my neighborhood is buy groceries.

#3500 10 months ago
Quoted from kpg:

Alcoa Corp (AA) reports earnings on April 22nd.
Being very familiar with trading in volatile markets, especially during questionable market and economic conditions, allows me to base certain patterns around earnings of market moving companies.
One of those companies that has always been looked at as an overall economic health indicator is Alcoa. I suggest looking them up if you are not familiar with the company, but I will say this.. if the market doesn't start retreating by then.. Alcoa's earnings report on 4/22 can be a market mover for sure. Just thought i'd mention.

I hear there have been very few car sales happening over the last month. Aluminum and steel are likely not in high demand.

Some of the big business that is floundering:

Hotels, airlines, buses, trains, taxis, government transportation services, new and used cars, rental cars, gas/fuel, restaurants and bars, movie theaters, bowling alleys and other entertainment activity based business, construction, hospitals (profits are from elective surgeries), dentists, veterinarians, physical therapists, professional sports, college sports, large and small retail businesses that do not have a big online presence, home appliance sales, large home improvement such as windows/doors, museums, concerts including music, stand-up comedy and shows, nightclubs, cruise lines, casinos

I am sure I missed quite a few big ones.

#3584 10 months ago
Quoted from Concretehardt:

Wow if this happened people need to go to jail!!
“ it felt like one or more hedge funds would seek to manipulate public sentiment - and the market - and get out of an underwater position.
They did just that at 430pm today when the low profile Statnews published a report by Adam Feuerstein, best known for doing the bidding of one or more hedge fund clients”

Sleazy, pump and dump, but this time even worse because the rumor caused a lot of possibly false hope.
Hopefully the report/rumor that the drug is working is true. The premarket trading sure seems to still be reacting positively.

#3652 10 months ago
Quoted from kidchrisso:

Does anybody like UCO here as a spec?

UCO and SCO just seem so rigged. I used to buy and sell them for small gains. I was looking back at what I paid a few years ago for both and they both are negative from the same points in time.

#3763 10 months ago
Quoted from Concretehardt:

Looks like the market is about to roll over and go red.

It just seems like the sh** is really hitting the fan right now. So much happening throughout each day and a lot of bad financial indicators popping up. The markets can't discount them forever and the feds can't fix them all.

#3790 10 months ago
Quoted from Rondogg:

This market. I could see a 15% drop due to the oil wars. That I could see. Add in the Global Pandemic, the entire world economy stopped virtually overnight with no real solution in sight? Massive layoffs, deaths, businesses destroyed...yeah, a 15% drop overall is ludicrous.

It sometimes almost seems like logic design is how the markets work. 1 and 1 is 1

1 week later
#3969 9 months ago
Quoted from noob-a-tron:

I do not like my dollar being skimmed more on every transaction so i use cash.

How does your dollar personally get skimmed on a credit card transaction? Does Australia have user fees on credit card use?
In the US if we use a credit card we pay the same as cash and the retailer pays a fee. The user does not pay anything extra (interest) unless they carry a credit balance over from a billing cycle.
Some of the advantages to the retailer are that the customer is more likely to spend more, the retailer does not have to have the cash on hand that could get stolen or be counterfeit, and they also do not have to worry about a bad check.

#3982 9 months ago
Quoted from barakandl:

try paying cash (write a check entire balance) at a car dealership. they will hate your guts and give you the run-a-round. "What kind of monthly payment do you want to make" ugh.... none. "WHAT! f- you, list price is best we can do".

We just bought a car with a check last week. They were begging us to ask for whatever price well below invoice we wanted to pay.

The finance guy did ask why I wanted to pay cash for the car after I had mentioned time-value-of-money in regards to the value/price of the extended warranty. I simply said that I don't believe in paying more for something than the agreed price and that interest paid is lost money and he shut up about it.

#3984 9 months ago
Quoted from merccat:

There’s also an advantage to the customer. Providing that you pay off your balances each month (so you do not pay any interest), many cards will give you a credit back of some percentage. It basically makes everything you buy 2-5% cheaper.
The exception is gasoline. Here about half of the gas stations will charge an extra 10-20 cents per gallon for credit vs cash, I don’t buy gas from those places.
Oh, business also like cards over cash because cash is a lot easier for an employee with sticky fingers to walk out with as well as presents a higher risk of armed robbery.

Fortunately the gas stations charge the same for cash or credit here. Though, I can remember it being different when I was growing up in the 1970's.

#4046 9 months ago

It is going to be interesting to watch retail prices for the next 12 months. Deflation is becoming a real concern for economists.
Right now food prices, where most people are spending, appear to be somewhat inflated likely because of supply chain issues and higher grocery store demand. Most other retail goods have much less demand presently and prices are starting to trend down. Deflated prices sound good because you could possibly get more for your money, but when a company's profits drop they likely do layoffs or less hiring causing more job losses which causes even less retail demand. Deflation can also cause companies to make less variety of products (less choice for the consumer) to slow losses or maximize smaller profits.

#4051 9 months ago
Quoted from swampfire:

dcfan you’re basically describing 70’s stagflation.

Or a much lesser version (hopefully, if it unfortunately comes to that) of the depression.

#4058 9 months ago

Another 2.98 million filed for unemployment. The market is starting down about 1.2% today. Is it time to retest the lows or will the feds prop it back up again?

#4085 9 months ago

The feds are just holding the needle on the gauge to be steady state. How long can they do that without either some big increase or a bit of a collapse.
The DOW has been held in check pretty much between 23000 and 24000 for 5-1/2 weeks (April 8).

#4094 9 months ago
Quoted from sataneatscheese:

Prediction: Dow up 800+ points today (5/18).

With the Moderna vaccine trial news it is not a very bold prediction.

#4097 9 months ago
Quoted from loneacer:

It'll probably sell on the news and end red. It's been stuck in this range for weeks and it's right at the top of the range now. Hopefully not.

Moderna is in such an early stage of trials. It would probably be well over 6 months before they could start giving the vaccine to anyone in the public even if the government rushed the process and compromised on the trial rules.

#4119 9 months ago
Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

Doesn’t seem sustainable. How many of you all are planning on taking vacations this summer? Getting on planes, renting cars and staying in hotels? Answer the question this way: you have to book and pay now, and refund potential is unclear.



#4127 9 months ago
Quoted from cottonm4:

As the stock market barrels on, people's rents are coming due.
"The couple have about 30 tenants, and "half of them are either laid off or furloughed or in some state of employment limbo," he said. "How long can it last? I have no idea what to expect."
"If rental income isn't coming in for landlords, Schuetz explained, they can't pay their mortgages. But it's not just that. They also won't be able to afford the property taxes that fund local governments, including things like public health programs."

Sounds like the mortgage companies will be taking a lot of homes and rental properties from the owners eventually. We all know the government taxation departments are not going to miss out on their shares. HOAs, when applicable, will also get their shares.

#4181 9 months ago
Quoted from edcianci:

i pretty much agree with you - commercial is going to be real bad as all the companies are now realizing people can work from home and be just as productive so they will rent less spaces. in our state (rhode island) we already have lots of empty commercial buildings - now we are going to have a lot more - the big issue is who is going to pay all the taxes that are needed for the cities and states to survive. it's going to be scary. it will take about 2 years for the next wave of foreclosures - i am hoping to be cash ready to buy. last time in 08 i bought some and rented them out before i realized i could sell them and not have to deal with rentals.
who knows what is going to actually happen - we all can just speculate based on our history and knowledge.

It is going to be interesting to see how much the newly working at home group is able to continue doing it as a normal way of life after the pandemic is over. I have been doing full time work at home for 13 years, but my job has a very clear quantifiable and verifiable work product.
My wife is an accountant and she was doing work at home about 3 days a week before the pandemic and has not missed a beat working at home full time during the pandemic. The biggest difference in her that I have noticed is that she seems less tired probably from not having to do her 20 minute commute each way.

2 weeks later
2 weeks later
#4505 8 months ago

With the new virus infections seeming to go out of control all over the country I have to believe that is the driver of a new downturn in the market until the feds pump more trillions into the markets.

#4510 8 months ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

I know that is popular for some to say, but could you share the method and the math on how the Fed’s money is being put into the stock market? Bonds and Money Market support sure and they will sell those back in a few years for a profit but I am talking stocks.


#4516 8 months ago
Quoted from investingdad:

With all due respect, I simply do not agree with this advice and believe it in error.
I've been a passive investor since I was 23 and am heading into my late 40s. I was passive in 2000, 2001, 2008, and now 2020.
My results stand on their own and my 25 year passive strategy has proven itself as valid.
At the moment, our portfolio is worth between 25 and 30 times our annual expenses.
I've never missed a run up, never caught a falling knife, never sold at a loss, never paid taxes on trading churn, and never lost sleep trying to decide if I needed to jump in or out.
Investing and wealth building are a lot easier than financial advisors and active traders would have you believe.

What you are saying works historically for a diversified portfolio. I believe what DBLM was referring to is people that are buying individual stocks (or options trading) and not paying attention to being in a diversified S&P like spread of stocks. For example if you bought several retail, airline, and tech stocks but not much of typical boring blue chips then you may get burned or miss out on the full market performance long term.

1 week later
#4545 8 months ago

I am curious to see how well Gilead does with its remdesivir sales increasing.
The year lows are not drastically lower than where it is now so I would think it makes for a reasonably low risk investment.

4 weeks later
1 week later
#4676 6 months ago
Quoted from Mad_Dog_Coin_Op:

Metals as a first investment is a bad idea (at least all in). This is what i did and it worked out pretty good. Buy a gold and platinum coin every year. I'm in the US so it's Eagles for me. Sell the Platinum coins and buy gold replacements when the prices sync up again. Keep the gold for the long term. As for the rest of it, buy mutual funds or a really diversified big company like Berkshire or Amazon. At that age you want winners. Start getting riskier after he learns the ropes.

Serious question, how do you sell coins for a fair price and securely?

2 weeks later
#4723 6 months ago

RKT is up close to 10% again today.
Where will it be right before the Sept. 2 earnings release and where will it go after? Things seem pretty rosy for it.

#4741 6 months ago
Quoted from DadofTwins:

Can you explain the following statement for people like myself who loves to invest but does not understand all the lingo 100% Thanks!
blockquote cite="#5814366">As for RKT, we opened a position for some accounts in the $20 range after it came public a few weeks ago.
As a long term investor i'll be looking for a pullback heading into the expiration of the 6 month lock up period for insiders and underwriters. Seems to happen every time! And then you load up IF the numbers are still good! Or sell if not.

Another further question, when is the 6 month lock up period ending?

1 week later
#4804 5 months ago

RKT is blasting off, up about 8 % today after being up big yesterday.

I had forgotten it is earnings report day for RKT.

#4826 5 months ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Looks like reality finally set in for the parabolic names today. Will it be a one day affair? Many of them need a 25% haircut just to get back to overvalued.

Even the talking head stock market guys are starting to sound ominous that a big correction is about to happen. It is almost as if the Tesla and Apple splits were like taking one last bite of the apple before jumping off the train.

#4865 5 months ago
Quoted from delt31:

Fact - we're not in a depression.
Simple as that.

Not a depression but a big have and have nots gap expanding.

#4883 5 months ago

Disney is doing well despite the market downturn. Streaming seems to be a big success for them.

#4960 5 months ago
Quoted from Barakawins1:

Market blows! Apple is lowest I've seen it at $110. Anyone dumping or holding?

$110 is the old $440 before the split. It still could go down a lot more.

#4983 5 months ago

I personally don't worry about taxes on stock profits. For example, if I make $10000 in profit then I pay the taxes with a portion of that profit so I am not missing any money I had before. I feel it is more important to sell at the right time than to worry about how it affects your taxes. I will occasionally sell something at a loss if I am sick of holding a dog and see that it can help offset some of the profits on another stock sale.

It is kind of like people that won't work overtime because they don't want to be in a higher tax bracket. In that case only the money that is above the next tax bracket start point is taxed at that rate, not all of your income. So if you make $10000 of overtime in a higher tax bracket you get an extra few percentage points tax on that $10000 so maybe you pay and extra $300 in taxes but get probably at least $6500 in extra income take home money after taxes.

#5029 5 months ago

I just bought a new 12.9" IPad that should arrive today, and will look to get a new phone once the 12 comes out. It has been a while since I bought the Iphone and Ipad I am presently using. Speed was becoming a problem because of the lack of RAM size.

If the IPhone12 has 5G they should sell very well.

#5032 5 months ago
Quoted from Elvishasleft:

Huh... I was thinking more like dipping under $100 to rebuy.
Appl is a tough one since every two weeks they are pimping something else.
A few months ago no one cared about the 5G cycle and that "doesnt matter anymore" it was all about services, app store... now since its the 5G cycle thats the thing again.
so it went from hardware doesnt matter to now all about the hardware. lol

I think if you buy it at $110 you need to be prepared to continue buying in increments if the price goes down further.

#5071 5 months ago
Quoted from sataneatscheese:

Monday market prediction has proven... fasle. I sold all my TSLA and held cash Friday. I'm going to sell everything else (in day trading fund) today at the market open. I'm up so no biggie. I am eying 2 major investment opportunities.
1. I predict TSLA will spike then crash this week. I think Tuesday by the close it may see 500, but by the end of the week it is likely to be back closer to or even under 400. If it hits 360 again I will back up the truck.
2. I may jump on the APPL train if it drops below 100.
Looking to time the market (big mistake I know) and see what is on sale.
With RGB down this week politics will be volatile. I think things will settle down a bit on Wednesday next week (the 30th) assuming the debate happens on the 29th.

This downturn seems more about the virus shutting down Europe again than politics.

#5140 5 months ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Here you go. . And then see below. Oh the irony of it all!!!
"Mr. Biden, Nancy Pelosi and Charles Schumer don’t agree on everything, but on this specific issue they speak with one voice: the $10,000 cap on deductions for state and local tax (better known as the SALT deduction) must go.
The House of Representatives has already passed legislation removing the cap, allowing the amount of the deduction to rise. If the Senate turns blue in November, Democrats have promised to return to the issue. “I want to tell you this,” Senator Schumer said in July, “If I become majority leader, one of the first things I will do is we will eliminate” the SALT cap “forever.” It “will be dead, gone and buried.”
"But there was one seriously progressive element, a single diamond in a lot of rough: the introduction of the SALT cap. Lifting it would therefore reverse one of the few good things about the 2017 bill. Almost 60 percent of the benefit of removal would go to the top 1 percent of households (of which 90 percent are white). For the superrich, the top 0.1 percent, repeal would make for an average tax cut of around $145,000 a year. In isolation, this change would be more skewed to the rich than the Republican tax bill as a whole."
And further..............
"By pushing for repeal of the cap, Democrats are leaving themselves wide open to criticisms of hypocrisy and opportunism. As Senator Michael Bennet, one of the few Democrats opposed to removing the SALT cap, pointed out to his Senate colleagues in October 2019: “We can say we are for a progressive tax code and for fighting inequality, or we can support the SALT deduction. But it is really hard to do both.” Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also voted against repeal."

That article is very slanted in the last two paragraphs. There are many middle class families like mine in states like NY, NJ, Connecticut, Virginia, Maryland, California, and Florida that are getting shafted by double taxes on the income they are paying for state income tax, real estate property taxes, and vehicle property taxes. As a dink, double income and no kids, I have been shafted for over twenty years with a marriage penalty and the reduction of the SALT deduction was just another form for me to get screwed additionally. I am usually not one to complain about taxes either.

#5141 5 months ago

The other thing about the $24,000 standard deduction for married couples is that it takes away some of the incentive to buy a home. A large percentage of families can no longer deduct the interest they are paying on the mortgage because they stay below the standard deduction. The main thing that is keeping houses selling and values up is the historically low interest rates. If the interest rates go up, which they eventually will have to, then home sales and prices could be volatile.

#5143 5 months ago
Quoted from DBLM:

The challenge that you and I have is that we live in a very expensive region with a high price of admission. Sadly, it is only getting worse. Between government and tech this region has a fair amount of wealth and is priced accordingly.
I don't know how it is in Chantilly but out here on the bay houses have sky rocketed. The bay market has always been strong but has gotten stronger as of late. The challenge out here is that for entry level waterfront homes, they normally are knock downs or complete gut jobs. Most of the homes are very dated and have not been kept up with, so the rehab is extensive. Throw in all the changes in zoning and building restrictions and it has become very slow and expensive to do construction out here.

There are so many new tech companies here where I am that were not here 20 years ago. A good portion of the people in my suburban neighborhood are in IT jobs and practically every new neighbor I have met in the last few years is in an IT job. I bought my house in 1997 and it is not far off from tripling in value.

#5145 5 months ago
Quoted from mattosborn:

But it's great if you've paid off your mortgage! I love not having to itemize deductions.

Not really when I have a mortgage on another similarly valued property and state real estate taxes on two properties on top of state income tax on two salaries (my wife and I). I still have to itemize but I lose probably about $15000 in deduction amount. Besides, itemizing is very easy with turbotax.

#5149 5 months ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:But look who is hitting you? State and Local governments. Are you getting really awesome value from your state and local governments for the higher taxes you pay? Folks just don’t look at where the money goes and say “it’s a write off whatever“ or “I live in a higher cost area so I should pay $12k is reasonable for property taxes” and they move on. I feel if folks can’t write off the income And property taxes It makes local governments more responsible. Also Why should the federal Govt have to subsidize higher taxes From states or mortgage payments from owners for the area you chose to live in and the mortgage payment you chose to take on? I would much rather see the lower income folks get a Tax break then six figure households not being able to write off. If you are middle class and write off over $24k a year in income, property and Mortgage interest are you may not be middle class?
Saying this in a nice non douche bag Anti Pinside way and full disclosure I was effected by the Tax change and had to pay more federal taxes because of it with capping my write offs, but I think think it’s fair.

It was the federal government that had been promoting taking on debt on homes and deducting interest and taxes. They decided to pull the rug out from under people. To me the American Dream of owning a home has been a little bit of a sham all along to keep the economy moving when most people would have more assets in the long run if they rented something modest and invested the difference for the long term.

#5150 5 months ago
Quoted from mattosborn:

Like I said, it's great if you don't have a mortgage. Paying off my house was top priority for me once I had the money to do so. Sure, I sold a lot of stock to do that, and I'm sure if I'd held that stock I'd have more money now (I don't care to do the math... what's done is done). But not having any debt for the last decade or so has been priceless. I sleep like a baby.

I was the same with paying off the house I live in. I have always been extremely conservative and that is why I was able to invest in a 2nd home after the primary home was paid off, and we even have been keeping our cars for over 15 years because we are that conservative.

#5153 5 months ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

But look who is hitting you? State and Local governments. Are you getting really awesome value from your state and local governments for the higher taxes you pay? Folks just don’t look at where the money goes and say “it’s a write off whatever“ or “I live in a higher cost area so I should pay $12k is reasonable for property taxes” and they move on. I feel if folks can’t write off the income And property taxes It makes local governments more responsible. Also Why should the federal Govt have to subsidize higher taxes From states or mortgage payments from owners for the area you chose to live in and the mortgage payment you chose to take on? I would much rather see the lower income folks get a Tax break then six figure households not being able to write off. If you are middle class and write off over $24k a year in income, property and Mortgage interest are you may not be middle class?
Saying this in a nice non douche bag Anti Pinside way and full disclosure I was effected by the Tax change and had to pay more federal taxes because of it with capping my write offs, but I think think it’s fair.

I feel that the state and local taxes I incur in Virginia are a good value considering our county has some of the best public schools in the country, parks and recreation, mass transit, and fairly good road system considering the amount of traffic and growth. It is the double taxation by the federal government on the state and local taxes that seems unfair. Also, the reason salaries and taxes are higher in more densely populated areas is because of supply and demand, not because the local government is squandering the tax revenue. Everything naturally costs more in an area when there is a high demand for the land, housing and employees (and thus higher local government employee salaries than a more rural area).

#5156 5 months ago
Quoted from mattosborn:

We sound a lot alike. I'm just too chicken to buy another home. Real Estate (and the taxes that come with it, which are a lot since we have no state income tax) scares me. Maybe once I'm officially retired I'll think about it.

Yeah, I get that. We plan on moving probably in a few years to the beach in Florida so that made the decision to buy easier. My sister-in-law checks on our Florida place when we are not there. I don't know if we would keep the Virginia house or not if we move down there.

#5157 5 months ago
Quoted from Methos:

I wouldn't agree with that....not all the time.

Agreed. I should have included the term "often" before "because of supply and demand".

#5167 5 months ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

I hear you but on the other side the federal government is getting shorted with write offs from tax payers from states, counties and towns where folks have higher demands from local and state governments. Federal to the is broke also. But maybe you think Federal govt is not giving you good vale for their services and that is why you want more money to go to local? I agree but I feel we can’t have our cake and eat it too and short the federal govt with too much Local tax write offs because we choose the area where we live, house we bought and mortgage we chose to take on and wanting more services costs more. I feel $24,000 Cap is fair. And once again I was effected by Salt and it didn’t help me. I feel it did help mid to lower income folks. Just agree to disagree and that’s totally ok.

I feel there is too much deduction for dependents. Why should we be in the business of shorting the federal government (your words) for overpopulating? These types of disagreements on fairness could go on forever. I know we pay more than if we divorced and still lived like we are married. I have run the numbers. Double income and no kids is unfair in many ways but I would be happy with just the SALT deductions.

#5170 5 months ago
Quoted from Methos:

I'm not as familar with SALT as I should be, but isn't that a deduction for middle and upper class more than anything? I thought at some point the AMT kicks it all in the ass anyway.
Regardless, we're all in for higher taxes in the next few years....and honestly, I'm ok with that.

Yes, I believe AMT would kick in for the upper class, but for the upper middle class it has mostly been eliminated in the tax code. I can’t remember the exact level that the AMT kicks in but it would be much higher than where I am in salary, taxes and interest paid.

#5246 5 months ago

I don’t see any posts by Gambit recently in this thread of major consequence???

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