So let's just review our chances for an Easter recovery.

We just exceeded China on the number of infected people. But we haven't come anywhere near close to China's (or Singapore's, or Germany's, or Italy's) response to the pandemic. We have consistently failed to act, taken half measures, and not done what needed to be done, even though the writing has been on the wall since January.

I mean look at the pathetic lack of response. People can still fly in and out of NYC, the most infected zone in the USA. Many officials continue to do nothing or worse. NYC's infections are doubling every 4 days.

It's not "if" the death rate increases dramatically. It /will/ increase dramatically. Simple math.

The problem with dear leader saying a hopeful date like "Easter" is that you get a nice little bounce now, but when Easter rolls around, and all the dead people are piled up, that's not going to spark enthusiasm to invest.

I don't know when the next drop will be, but I strongly believe there will be another drop. Q1 earnings are going to be devastating. The next unemployment figures are going to be devastating.

This is a dead cat bounce. It's FOMO + day trading.

I went all cash a while ago, and I'm staying all cash for the foreseeable future.

There’s absolutely no good news this weekend. Some stocks will continue to rise, but I don’t see how we’ll see an overall rally on Monday.

18% up in Q3, yeah right. These are the same clowns who were touting the stock market in 2000/2001 just after the crash. Of course they’re not going to say what they actually think. THEY NEVER DO.

Futures of any kind, in particular oil futures seem an extraordinarily risky bet right now.

I wouldn’t expect Russia or the Saudis to let up until they have broken the backs of US shale oil.

And how many people do you think are going to be willing to jump on a plane or take a cruise once we’re on the other side of this? Once corporate America realizes most of its business can be done virtually, you really think they’re going back to flying people all over the place? Just like all those corporate middle management jobs came back after 2008?

Oil, travel, airlines, cruise lines, those aren’t coming back fast.

Still holding cash. I don’t think we’re near the bottom yet.

That’s just a smart business move that capitalizes on human psychology. I suspect that like gift certificates, a lot of these credits will expire unused.

We haven’t yet seen the flood of “cruise ship of death” docudramas that are surely being written and pitched in Hollywood. Look for them in 2021, once filming resumes. These are going to murder the cruise industry.

And here’s some purely anecdotal support: my in-laws are life-long cruisers. They have maximum status with Holland America Line. They’ll never take a cruise again. A lot of the cruise line’s customers are people in the highly lethal demographic. I myself have taken several cruises including two month-long voyages. Since Covid? Never again.