This is probably the second-leg-down phase of the W-shaped recovery I've been expecting. Shouldn't be as deep as the first leg - lessons learned - but I never felt the recovery was "for good" without having the virus under control. With cases ramping up again and winter coming on, I'm watching for another batch of clamp-downs and more small business failures. We need a reliable treatment, another stimulus bill (but without bailing out state pension funds, or we're toast long term), and the return of warmer weather to further reduce indoor spread. The obvious market question is when will the market realize it and how far in advance of the second recovery phase will it start back up? Of course politics is complicating everyone's predictions, too. My truck is still in the driveway, waiting for the blizzard to pass.

Nobody seems to be factoring in just how bad the next round of covid shutdowns (or failures to shut down) will be. New case count spiked to 128K yesterday, and that's with all the restrictions already in place. Virtual / remote biz will continue to do fine, but all else is a crapshoot right now. As for Tesla, Toyota's CEO cautioned on them today; FYI, if you look at reliability data, Tesla sucks. They're winning on popularity rather than substance; it remains to be seen if Tesla will be the auto industry's iPhone or its Blackberry. SpaceX has better long-term odds than Tesla.