Not an active market trader but I am in the market. I'm old school buy and hold solid companies...and I like stocks that pay dividends as well.

Recently I got involved with the online loan companies like Prosper and Lending Club. I'm in Prosper. It has not been long enough for me to really sing it praises but so far I like what I'm seeing. Very customizable (if you want) as far as what types of loans you get involved in (I prefer debt consolidation) and also the level of risk you want to take on. Loans are rated from AA-HR. My highest percentage is in B & C rated loans. I'm currently averaging 10.7% annualized which beats the market....but, that is not a final number and will likely dip a little as more defaults show up. Should still beat the market average though.

Right now I'm showing 21 defaulted loans.....which sounds a little scary until you realise I'm spread out over 264 loans total.

My proudest Stock Moment......buying Disney after the 2008 crash for $17.66 a share (Still have them and have bought more since then).

So I google IUL and this was my first hit:

http://www.hcplive.com/physicians-money-digest/personal-finance/dahle-5-reasons-not-to-buy-iul-insurance

The bottom line from that article: "You simply don’t get anywhere near the market returns due to the costs of the insurance, the additional fees, the loss of the dividends, the cap rates, and the participation rates. These products don’t pass the common sense test."

yes

Just for the sake of comparison, if I had put your 2.2 million into my Disney stock back in 2009 I would have over 11 million today.

Cashed out the rest of my Roth and I'm transferring it to Prosper (which is also set up as a Roth account). So it's really just a rollover.

I manage most of my money on E*Trade with most of it being stuck in index funds.

You have to go through "Millennium Trust" to set it up as a Roth account (or other retirement vehicle).

https://www.mtrustcompany.com/

Yes... I checked it all out before preceding. I had to set up the Roth with Mellinium Trust prior to rolling funds from the existing Roth.

So for those who plan to retire early how do you plan your future income? Are you planning on living of just the interest earned from your investments?

I could potentially go 30+ years in retirement and that's if I retire at 65. Sure I could die anytime but my family history is fairly good on the longevity end. Had a great uncle die this year at 110. Cancer took my Grandpa but he was still 84 and my great grandfather lived to 96 sucking on pipe every waking moment and eating eggs and bacon every morning.

So I might (maybe, if I'm lucky) have an extended retirement. My goal was to save enough to live of the interest but probably not going to get there unless I work a little longer than 65. I estimated 2 million in order to be able to live off just the interest.....and still be able to travel and have some fun.

Retirement.

I'm roughly 15 years away from retirement. Trying to "hit a number" and appear to be on track....with some luck.

Anywho....what it the best way to maximize the "payout" with an uncertain life expectancy? I just looked into "immediate annuities" and the results looked pretty decent considering it's "guaranteed" income (for life if you choose).

Anyone? Beuller?

ferris_bueller_quotes_teacher1 (resized).jpg

You can "annuitize" (for a smaller payout) that will pay out the remainder of your funds to your heirs.

I think I have a better than average chance of exceeding 85. Holding off on SS until 70 shouldn't be an issue.

Well I'm not really comfortable getting into extreme financial detail on a website....call me crazy.

You have a pot of money set aside for retirement.....on average, what is the best way to maximize your payouts from that pot for the longest period of time? Let's say 30 years if we have to pick a number. You mentioned getting approximately 4% from your investments....which you could theoretically do and not even touch the principle. But I've seen immediate annuities that pay out 5.4% for life.....of course you are chewing into the principle here but the payout is guaranteed for life regardless of what happens in the market. Just wondering if there are better/smarter alternatives?

That would be nice becasue then you never have to touch the principle. Gives you unlimited time in retirement and you get to pass the principle to your children (or loved ones).

Unfortunately I got a VERY late start on retirement savings.....like many. Fortunately I have a good business that I also get to sell in retirement, plus I'm trying to make up for lost time. Hurts a little now but will be worth the piece of mind.

Everyone talks about factoring in an average 3% cost of living increase......but it that really needed? I mean will I really spend in my late eighties early nineties what I'll spend in my late 60's and in my 70's? Somehow I really doubt it. I might still be alive and well but I don't see traveling as much or buying pinball machines in my 90's.

Good point!

Just a little update on my Prosper account. Nearly a year in now and I'm averaging 11.7% return which is beating my expectations by a large margin. This is still WAY too short of a time frame to properly judge but I'm impressed with what I'm seeing. I did "customize" my account with certain restrictions on how my money is loaned out and I also customized the percentages assigned to the loan ratings (AA through E). I'm weighted mostly in the B & C class loans (55%) with A & D classes representing 35% and E at 10% (I have 0% in AA).

It's not a stock I own ....they take your money and loan it out to people. It's referred to as "peer to peer" lending. I have mine set up as a Roth account but you can also just do straight lending.

Lame. Same with Lending Club? I couldn't do Lending Club but could do Prosper.

I just checked and you are open to Lending Club.....which is essentially the same thing.

So my great uncle that lived to 110 was way out there.

Yeah I'm generally not a fan of LTC insurance.

I love the "out of favor" stocks. If the market loves them I generally avoid. A little beat down but still solid fundamentally is what I tend to look for.

Anyone playing around with the crypto currencies? I put a little into the Bitcoin stock and it has shot up 31% in about 1 week. Of course it could crash just as hard.

My biggest concern with them is the looming emergence of quantum computing which could blow the security of these out of the water.

Still, they may be worth a gamble in the short term.

Really? I don't think it's that far off. I could see 10-20. 50 is WAY too long to project technological advancement (IMHO).

So I've been doing a lot more research. I still don't think quantum computing is 50 years away...and I still think 10-20 seems more likely.

However; the cryptocurrencies are more secure than I realized and even the advent of quantum computing will not signify their doom. The big question though is whether or not there will be a consensus to upgrade bitcoin's security (currently SHA-256) to something even more "quantum safe" like SHA-3? Without consensus the code can't be changed and that could be a big problem down the road. Other cryptocurrencies are already "quantum safe"...at least for the foreseeable.

I honestly can't tell if you're being fesecious or not?

Well you're "in blockchain tech" but not invested in any of it? You can PM me if you want. I guess it really boils down to whether or not you think cryptocurrencies are here for the long haul or not. I think they will be for obvious reasons (financial transaction speed, security and cost). It will be an extremely volatile ride but I think they are here to stay. Will they replace fiat currency? Hard to say...maybe, someday. More likely they will simply be an alternative form of currency...at least in my lifetime.

BTW...I'm only throwing "speculation money" at this...not my life savings.

Yeah...I think shorting Bitcoin or Ether would be a hell of a huge mistake. I'm betting long on them.

Right now CD's are returning around 2.4% on the high end. So you would be locking your money up for 5 years at 2.4%. Sure it's safe. If you think the market will have a big correction in the timeframe I guess it's not a bad play...but if you guess wrong that's a lot of coin left on the table.

Proven fact that no one can "time the market"...no one.

That being said in hindsight it will "appear" that many people timed the market perfectly...law of averages.

It seems like the market has gotten more volatile over time. That's not necessarily a bad thing (I think the overall avg returns have remained fairly stable)...but we seem to have quicker recoveries to market crashes with higher upswings and then sharper downturns. I don't know if AI trading taking over is having this effect or it's just a natural progression. But retiring at the wrong time (at the top) could really suck. Of course retiring at the bottom would be a major plus. Unfortunately you don't know where you landed hit until after the fact.

I wish you the best of luck but it seems to me you're a pretty savvy guy and will do alright either way.

What I meant by that is if you retire when the market happens to be at it's peak your portfolio is going to way underperform in the following years. You could be hurt even following the old 4% rule.

On the flip side of you happen to retire at the bottom of the market your portfolio is going to overperform historical averages and you could potentially draw 8% annually and still have it last.

Good luck/Bad luck scenarios.

Can you point me to some statistics corroborating that? My understanding is that "most" day traders fail to beat the market. In fact many just outright fail. Some of course will be huge successes...but not from any masterful insights, just the law of averages.

Okay? But I believe most "true day traders" still perform worse on average then just sticking their money in an S&P 500 index fund.

A large block of my 401's are now being AI managed. I can set the "risk tolerance" parameters but then it takes over from there. Part of the risk parameters also ask about the time period you are looking at before retiring and it adjust the risks accordingly. So far so good.

I also have retirement funds in traditional "index funds" and also some being used for personal loans (Prosper) and a small amount in the crypto market....oh, and a little bit of physical gold.

Can I do it with your money?

I'm a holder not a trader...so easy come easy go. It will bounce back eventually.

Exactly...there aren't a lot good reasons not to be invested in the market unless you simply cannot afford to be.

Even if you're a real estate wiz and making bank...some of that cash should be getting plowed into the market long term.

And probably close to 2x what they would have been today in another 10 years or so.

I'm not an expert but I believe you have to wait until 59 1/2 to start drawing on your 401k without fees or penalties.

Well this is true ONLY if you retire in the same year that you turn 55. If you retire at say 54 and then try to draw at 55 you will get hit with penalties.

Which is what I'm looking into right now since I can no longer contribute to a Roth. Just need to weigh the tax implications but since I don't plan to retire for another decade or so this looks like the smartest option.

Historically? No. Over that last 30 years they've averaged about 4%. The projection over the next 10 is 6%.

Original post in this thread mentioning Bitcoin at a price of approximately $1000 (7 years ago). I started buying later that year, and never stopped.
Anyone who thinks the current price might be the peak this cycle...lol.

Nice, I also picked up some MSTR.

Great question. Make of this what you will. I posted this in the "crypto / Bitcoin" thread:

I'm generally not a "chart" guy and definitely not a "TA" guy as it applies to Bitcoin. However, having a science background I do find this one fascinating. Please...if you're unfamiliar with "power laws" refrain from commenting...until you are.

https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/#:~:text=Bitcoin%20Long%20Term%20Power%20Law%20Explained&text=These%20resistance%20and%20support%20bands,between%20bitcoin's%20price%20and%20time.

Giovanni Santostassi, an Italian Astrophysicist has discovered that Bitcoin is (so far) following a time-based power law. He first proposed this in 2014 but even he admitted there were not near enough data points to make a conclusion. But now, 15 years in, he's convinced there is enough data to take this seriously.

Personally I think if it does break it will break to the upside. But, I am now using this as my base (worst case scenario) the bottom "support line" of the chart.

Breifly what does this chart indicate? That BTC should crack $1M by 2028...however, it will not sustain above $1M until 2037 (bottom section). You can use the first link to move around the chart and see possible highs and lows at different dates.

Also, the price has often broken above it's predicted range after halvings occur, but the price has never broken below the support line...in 15 years.

All of the ETF'S store their Bitcoin on one exchange... Coinbase. Except for Fidelity. For that reason alone I would buy Fidelity's ETF over the others. Fidelity self custodies...and they have shown over the years that they understand Bitcoin.

It also creates a huge single point of failure.

15 years of data and not a single break below the support line. I'll take it.

The vast majority is actual Bitcoin. I hold a smaller amount of Fidelity's ETF (FBTC) in a pension rollover.

My Roth was rolled into a Roth that holds actual Bitcoin and I hold the keys. It's a two of three multisig account with Unchained Capital. They hold one set of keys and I hold two. Two are needed to move the Bitcoin.

I also hold some additional Bitcoin in a traditional IRA with Unchained Capital....same set up.

If Unchained Capital goes bankrupt I've lost nothing. If I move the Bitcoin early, then I would incure the same penalties as removing funds from a traditional IRA early.

I also have some in cold storage wallets.

Shorting Bitcoin has proven to be (over the years) the fastest way to lose money known to man. I wish you luck. I have added Bitcoin to my portfolio for nearly 7 years now. I have never traded it. Accumulated only. It's worth more than my traditional investments and retirement funds combined (including my wifes 401k). There are good reasons for that. But hey, if you think you know more than BlackRock and Fidelity...go for it.

There are ways to short it...but not how you describe. I think everyone would do that.

Probably true at this stage. There is also a mountain of difference between Bitcoin and "crypto" to me. "Crypto" is basically all scams and pump and dumps. Someting like Bitcoin could only happen once. Again, just my opinion. Yes the $$ value of my BTC is quite high and this point...but my "cost basis" isn't anything that would totally wreck me if I lost it...and that is how I look at it...what I've pumped into it. Well that and the possible "opportunity costs" associated with that. I'm comfortable with it because I understand it. That in itself took a long time. I first looked at it in 2014 at $400....didn't buy because I thought it looked "scammy"....whoops.

Not "infinitely" divisable...but each Bitcoin is divisible by 100,000,000 Satoshi's.

Why does it have value? Because it has utility and all of the properties of hard money. It solved digital scarcity....1st time in human history.

It allows anyone to transfer value to anyone else on the planet, quickly, and without needing a trusted 3rd party. Also a 1st. And no one can prevent that transaction from taking place ...and everyone can verity that it did indeed take place.

It's an immutable ledger. It's "the" protocol of money/value, much like TCP/IP is the protocol of the Internet.

TCP/IP was invented in the 70's and it's still the base layer of the Internet...we have simply built on top of that protocol over the years to add features.

Same way people will/are building secondary layers on top of the Bitcoin protocol to add features.