Newbies: Please don't even think about shorting as a strategy. Not until you become a well-heeled expert with timed calls, puts, and limits in place to protect your speculations.

With shorts, you can not only lose all of your investment, you can lose 1,000x or even 10,000x if you make a spectacularly bad call. Enough to bury you permanently.

Also: Everyone looks like a genius in a bull market. Be skeptical. Tread carefully and don't play with your retirement nest egg. Leave it in the boring indexes and only use your "extra money" to speculate with... because no one can see the future. No one.

OK, now please resume with the moneytalks.

Single-family homes are in my VGSLX portfolio, but I worry what gobs of incoming private equity could do to the affordability of American family households. It could destabilize our republic altogether if it turns us into a nation of renters with no stake in the dirt we walk and live upon. Or introduce unwelcome levels of volatility into the lives of existing homeowners hoping to retire.

https://www.mymoneyblog.com/single-family-rental-homes-asset-class.html

Global warming psychosis is a thing.

No, not "global warming is a hoax and those who believe otherwise are mentally ill". But rather, an actual real form of anxiety stemming from the constant realization of how tenuous our existence is tied to the climate. Like feeling anxiety when viewing the steadily-increasing level of global CO2 PPM, record-setting temps, rain, bizarre storms, etc.

BTW have y'all called your power company to switch to green power? Every time I suggest this even to my closest pals on FB, all I get are excuses, crickets, or explanations why doing nothing is better or other people/governments/etc. should do something instead.

100% green since 2004 here... kinda sick of hearing it. We have to start somewhere, right?

Pardon. A bit off-topic. Was calculating potential investments in oil ETF's as well as GRN and other sustainability-focused funds and developed spontaneous typing tourette's.

Anyway, please call your power company and switch to a green plan if you could/would. At least a nice green sheen on the capitalistic thrust of this thread whether you make money or not. :p

Any company currently working on large-scale carbon dioxide scrubbing?

Have been pleased with GRN’s resilience so far. Only a niche play but one which may grow in importance over time.

No kidding. The winners always pull the rest of the pack forward. Identifying them early? Well... that's the tricky part ain't it?

Amazon crashed from nearly $100 in 1999 to about $7 in 2001. Got sliced in half again from 2007-2009... all while other stocks had been rocketing ahead. Who would have stuck it out and kept buying through those drawdowns? Not many. But the long-term diversified buyers always kept some in the basket and are reaping the rewards today.

Right now the new S&P highs are floating upon a narrowing field of relative winners (only 30%). Not necessarily doom and gloom, but it might explain the prevalence of so many sideways trades/movements lately... and perhaps to come for a while.

sideways (resized).png

UPST up nicely today
GRN still steadily gaining in the face of many tanking
MAC the unloved holdings company just hanging in there paying 3.5%
LVS waiting for a rebound at the trough

I don't day trade. Generally passive buy and hold here only in companies I can wrap my head around.

Added a position in ZVIA. Went IPO about a month ago. I think they're on-trend and I like the product. They also recently added an ex-Red Bull exec to the team. I also sell many flavors in the museum.

Drink stocks tend to go ballistic once they develop traction. HANS (Hansen's Soda) was explosively profitable even before they changed their name and product line in 2012. Pretty sure you can guess who they are today. A real "monster" of a company...
zevia (resized).jpg

YW, but this is a years-long game with much higher potential upside. Stay the course.

I admire the testicular fortitude of day traders, but I wouldn't be able to sleep at night doing it. I only buy stuff which I personally understand (or just like) and only niche positions at that.

Very difficult to beat the quants over time. Even fleets of experienced traders at Goldman Sachs with rooms of HDTV's flashing stock information can rarely beat them consistently. That's why prices are generally what they are... the research, speculation, hunches, earnings, estimated growth potential, competitive risks, etc. are all factored in. Thus everyone looks like a genius in a bull market and you *almost* can't lose buying into the momentum. Of course the opposite in a bear market.

Meme stocks are really only the latest version of squeezing the rumor mill, pump & dump, etc. Has been a thing for many decades. Good if you're clever and understand the game you're playing... but even then greed has a tendency to blindside the best speculators over time. Always looking for one more high.

Question for y'all... what percentage of your total investable assets (not car, home equity, etc.) do you usually play around with? I feel like I'm pretty conservative with only 3% of my total holdings in non-diversified speculative buys. I don't do options.

It's gratifying to see a 30% gain in ZVIA (Zevia) and 20% in GRN (offset carbon) so soon, but these are long-term plays. As in years. Just happy to sit, sip, and breathe a little easier for now.

Eventually the big guys could get into the stevia-soda game, but right now the Z is best-positioned for growth. Time to pop a ginger ale... *barp*

EDIT 9/10/2021: Haha -ouch- already back to the baseline again. Not worried about it. This is a long game for a unique and good product. Let's see what 2022 looks like.

Ever notice when the market slows, so do the “hot pick” forums spanning the internet.

It’s easy to be a genius in a bull market. You can pick almost anything. Market efficiency makes pricing a breeze… almost no need to do any homework. After all, will you do better than rooms full of supercomputers and analysts making forecasts as their full-time jobs? Not likely.

UPST has done well, regardless. The rest are still puttering along through the September slog.

My personal “soda disruptor” pick ZVIA is down again. Might add a bit more.

This happened at your party?

Zevia is being consumed here and several guests have been delighted that we offer them alongside the other usual choices.

I don’t find Zevia to be any sweeter than typical soda. Many flavors less so, like Mountain Zevia which some prefer over the original (less syrupy, more sparkly).

It’s a disruptor play. They’re branching into teas, mixers, and energy drinks too. People still adore their liquid birthday cake… but healthier options across the spectrum are gaining ground as traditional sodas lose market share. So they’re on trend… just have to ride it out.

Personally, I like and understand the product, so I hope they continue to gain traction.

Zevia is still an emerging growth company. Fundamentals are not the story right now. 32% annualized growth, retail sales, online sales through Amazon, same store sales, and retail carriers all up over the past 14 years consecutively.

This jibes with the overall trend of Gen Z wanting healthier options, as well as a bit of fun & increasing share of stevia products in general.

On trend and growing. Still way early… this ain’t no day trade for me.

Yep. The drink market is extremely competitive and a real slog for newcomers. The big guys have tight locks on shelf space, distribution, advertising, retail placement, etc. But the profit margins are absolutely enormous once market penetration crosses the mark... hence why so many people want to launch their own energy drink, brand, etc. but can't get going out of the gate.

Thus far, no one else has an answer for what Zevia offers, nor more experience developing a competitive stevia product. In 2020 they took over the #1 carbonated soda brand sold on Amazon... this is not insignificant.

I'm not worried about profits right now. It's not a revenue game at this stage, it's all about growth. Zevia is still emerging and the trends are looking quite sunny compared to the overall beverage market:

zeev (resized).jpg

Another wrinkle: Coke & Pepsi have decades-long agreements with corn syrup producers. They're locked in and can't pivot so easily toward a product which would undercut their baseline and possibly endanger existing production agreements.

Of course, Coke could launch a fleet of stevia products if they wanted to. Same for Pepsi. Maybe Zevia's 32% year-on-year growth will stall out before the curve goes vertical? Well, that's investing for ya. *shrug* no risk, no reward.

All I know is that Zevia is a good product with a competitive and steadily growing position with a wide array of new products... and hey... I happen to really like it. It's like having your cake and eating it too. Haven't touched soda for a decade until now, and I missed it.

As always, invest, don't gamble, and try to stick with things you understand and buy companies which make "real understandable things" as Berkshire tends to do. I've had family members lose their retirement savings in 2008 due to a number of expensive "hot stock tips" which of course couldn't lose in a bull market. Remember, market efficiency works to your advantage. Unless you fundamentally understand a product and/or have some kind of inside information which makes a substantial impact, thousands of brilliant analysts and equity funds are already many miles ahead of you. I've also known more than a few day traders who are now driving for Uber Eats. Tread carefully, y'all.

OK, but flavored carbonated water and soda pop are two different products. And what's wrong with stevia? The sugar industry has done all it can to convince us how much healthier corn syrup is... geez. Meanwhile, diabetes is still a monster problem.

I hope so. Really tired of Delta and the economic price we've paid by lagging other nations in vaccine adoption.

OIH and PINS had some extreme June-July exuberance here and are now 20% and 30% down to date. But probably wouldn't buy anyway... just not what I like. *shrug*

Truth... and after factoring in fees over time, the margin slims even further. Meanwhile, the laggards usually do FAR worse. Is it worth chasing a few % points for the certain downside risk of losing years of compounding interest if they lag the quants? Do the laggards ever outperform enough to make up the difference going forward? Almost never happens. Who do you think pays for those gigantic Goldman Sachs salaries and offices anyway?

Market efficiency works in your favor. By the time a stock has a price slapped upon it, the work is already baked in. Why pay fees to let someone else roll the dice for you? Berkshire = buy things which make sense and don't bet against America. Bogle = don't pay unnecessary fees on compounding assets. Meme stocks = old fashioned pump-n-dump for the 21st century. Greed = everywhere.

As for those "hot tip newsletters", that's an old scam. Launch 100 newsletters (or 100 imaginary profiles, etc.) each one choosing stocks randomly. Cancel the ones which lag the market and upsell the remaining "winners". Throw in a bunch of technical charts, historical projections, unbridled exuberance, etc. By the time you've narrowed the field down to three newsletters/expert profiles which never tanked, it'll look like some kind of financial genius is behind them. Then charge $$$$$ for each upcoming issue and when they finally make a bad turn, disappear from sight with the profits. Example: Brinker's newsletter in May 2008 made the worst call of all... "Our cyclical health-correcting graphs show recovering strength in the economy"... oops. Cyclical what?

For a bit of fun, compare the sum total of all the buy & market timing recommendations in this thread with same-day purchases of, say, an ordinary diversified fund like SPXL (triple-weighted S&P index). Did the "Pinside Fund" outperform it? Was "optimal timing" required to capture those gains?

The very first post in this thread was December 13, 2016: "Good luck to anyone long in the market right now.. in my opinion, today would be a great day to sell and buy back on a bigger pullback. It should be getting turbulent out there very soon. Currently the Dow is at its most overbought levels I have seen in many years."

Following that advice would have been an absolute catastrophe. Not only did the DIJA pullback not happen, but doing nothing at all would have almost doubled your money in five years!

Not saying "I told you so"... legit curious! You can beat the market once in a while, but consistently? Almost never.

Iceman tip from 2016: "Tesla should be trading at $50 bucks a share right now. One stock I would short with conviction. The Musk con is on its last legs and they won't have the govt giveaways under Trump. The cult nature of Tesla has it hanging in there for now. I'm all for green energy but this company is never gonna make $$$. Who will buy the company when the debt finally swamps them? Nobody at this price."

Had you "shorted with conviction" on this "cult company", you'd now be -$1,500% in the hole, and most certainly very, very deep into financial insolvency.

Again, not picking on anybody nor playing sanctimonious advice wizard. Only pointing out the fallacy of easy money and the simplicity of beating an efficient market with hot tips and obscure charts and market timing.

What businesses/stocks do you personally have faith in and are investing for the long term?

I didn't "ignore them"... I haven't read that far yet. But what if an investor had taken that advice to heart and wasn't committed to following Pinside from that day forward? Everyone is right if given enough time and if the market takes a turn for the better.

Sing what? This was a copy and paste of an earlier post, extrapolated to today. As you said, might be fun to see percentage wins and losses to date.

LOL no kidding. I heard one financial analyst who was an impatient investor make this quip around 2010, "The best advice I could give to my friends is to look at what I do, and do the exact opposite."

Morons lose money by following unsolicited internet advice? Good to know. I think that's kind of the gist here.

Anyway, let's see more comparisons with SPXL. That's a decent benchmark for indexed aggressive growth. Could also use Nasdaq or another basket of mutuals. Again, just curious... this should be fun, aye?

Picks are taken from page 4 of this thread, indexed (approximately) to today:

Baseline = SPXL (triple-weighted S&P growth fund) up 400% (negligible dividend) since Dec 16, 2016

GREAT pick - AMD up 1000% since Dec 16, 2016 (Kneissl)

MO (Altria) down 30% (pays 7% dividends) (rai)

AGNC (REIT play) down 12% (pays 9% dividends) (kpg)

XLE (energy play) down 36% (pays 3.9% dividend) (Iceman)

Good pick, beat baseline - AAPL up 500% (small dividend) (Iceman)

HD (Home Depot) up 250% (2% dividend) (Iceman)

V (VISA) up 285% (small dividend) (Iceman)

COST (Costco) up 285% (small dividend) (Iceman)

STZ (Constellation Brands) up 42% (1.4% dividend) (Iceman)

ORLY (O'Reilly) up 210% (Iceman)

SWKS (semiconductors) up 225% (Iceman)

LMT (Lockheed Martin) up 36% (3% dividend) (Iceman)

As you can see, even though there are some good picks here, only two beat the SPXL baseline and the rest lagged by almost half or did far worse.

It's really, really hard to beat the market. By and large, a small number of big winners carry the majority of market gains. Which is super awesome if you happen to pick one outright. But if you miss it, you miss the boat entirely.

Chart (minus AMD):

chart (resized).png

True, this is only up to page four. Have to start somewhere... it's just a casual glance back after five years.

Apple, V, and AMD are in the list (not the chart... AMD did so well it blows everything else out of proportion).

I'm not here to throw shade your way whatsoever, and I don't know you either. This is only a thread on a pinball forum with little icon-people making stock picks. As you know, a world of difference from actual estate planning, private equity management, etc, with loads of different requirements for different people.

You've made a lot of recommendations here and some have made money, so that's a good thing. Not sure what you mean about my attitude, however... I've had nothing negative to say.

At the moment I'm only curious about anecdotal stock comparisons and what motivates people to buy what they do. Investing vs. gambling. I'm also fundamentally skeptical of stock tips and newsletters because aside from being a boring buy-and-hold investor I worked at Citi and a privately-held financial firm for 16 years watching the market boil over in 2000 and 2008. As well as watch a number of friends and family go over the falls due to following unsolicited tips. I'm just curious if I'm missing out or doing better sticking to the quants. I do wish you well.

Back atcha, man. And hey… when not poring over spreadsheets be thankful for all of that Texas BBQ and Tex-Mex in abundance down there. What’s the stock price on enjoying the little things? I’m still hoping a Texas expat moves to little Roanoke to bring some magical fajitas…

Thanks y’all. It is hard to think out loud nowadays without stepping on someone’s toes inadvertently. Pardon if I did… probably shouldn’t be posting conjectures about financial scenarios while kids are yelling about a ball being stuck and popcorn is scattering across the floor on a busy Saturday.

So, eh, anyone buying stuff they understand and like for the long term? I bought some GRN carbon offset because I like the idea… green things, sugar-free things, etc. Perhaps the opposite of the ol’ VICE fund. :p

If the thread has gone to shit, don't shit on the thread. Why not share what you're investing in and why?

Whoo… blood on the street today but BROS is defying the tide. Looks like a good pick.

Agree. Not worried. The September slump will work its way through. My portfolio horizon is measured in years anyway, so fall another 10-20% for all I care.

It’s all paper gains until you cash out. Enjoy your life in the meantime, aye?

MrBally’s BROS pick is strongly resisting the tide today. He mentioned seeing “Chick-Fil-A” crowds at their walkup and drive-through locations… and that’s the kind of investment choices I like to hear about. Basically things an ordinary person can see, understand, buy, and get behind.

I don’t have any Dutch Bros. in my area so I have no idea how popular or tasty their product is. But sometimes seeing is believing!

(cuts both ways of course… we saw Krispy Kreme make an observable meteoric rise in the early 2000’s but eventually boiled over unlike Starbucks which has done extremely well over the years)

Dang. BROS up over 18% while everything else tanks. Pick of the day for sure.

Dang... the BROS won't quit! Roared up to nearly 62 before settling back to around 55 by end of trading... yet still added another 6.5% to yesterday's haul. Really on a tear after that IPO and hasn't quit. Earnings per share is in the crapper, but no matter. It's all about emerging growth for the BROS. Let's see where they are in 2022 or 2025.

Meanwhile, in other emerging company news, poor battered Zeev added 3 1/4% today but still a 34% haircut since the early September high. Meh. Let's also compare in 2022 and beyond.

I think this Christmas might be more disappointing than the last due to the container ship cost increases and supply shortages. A lot of people might not be getting their gifts this year.

LOL days like today are why I'm not a day trader. Now BROS is down 7%, Zeev up 3%. Who can anticipate the wild swings being made by millions of investors, fund managers, governments, etc, on a daily basis?

BROS is probably a good play. People love coffee, it is addictive, Dutch Brothers seems to offer a unique spin, they're expanding, etc. As long as they aren't mismanaged somewhere along the way, could be pretty rosy long term. I'll probably add a position tomorrow.

Today BROS gained back 2.2% and ol’ Zeev roared up 10%. Who can make sense of these wild swings on a day to day basis? It’s a stomach-churning thought for people who bet their life savings on these things… yeesh.

As for that 10% surge, *ahem*, I might be responsible for some of that today...

A8DDE05C-E5A8-4888-8E9B-A8F87E65D7CA (resized).jpeg

Our local Whole Foods-wannabe put sodas on their monthly special, plus my 15% special order discount, well… can’t resist stacking that deal, literally. *barp*

Seems almost tantalizingly within reach, doesn’t it? Trouble is, that is ten *consecutive* doublings… a feat even Warren Buffett would be envious of today.

Microsoft, Nike, and Starbucks are three big winners for sure. But how many losers among them? A whole, whole lot. That’s why passive investing is so useful, if boring. By buying the basket, you’re guaranteed to capture the winners… and it is the winners who move the entire market. Miss one, and you’ll miss a big chunk of the momentum.

It’s like taking a cruise ship vs. riding on a wooden plank attached to an outboard motor. Sure, you’ll win the race if you’re crafty and lucky and no another boat capsizes you with their wake… but ten races in a row? Dang. Better have a bucket of Pepto-Bismol on the ready.

Still, it is a good idea to play with a smaller chunk of savings so one doesn’t get bored and feel like they’re missing out on all the fun.

Certainly better odds than playing the lottery, that’s for sure.

It's the annual "government shutdown holiday". Doesn't need to happen, shouldn't happen, but some will make it happen because it's their only card to play... nevermind what it will do to the economy, etc.

Aerospace and electronics are the primary practical drivers of gold consumption. But yes, people love their shiny things... that is... if they aren't starving or fighting off The Humongous like Road Warrior style trying to steal your chickens and fuel and people.

Fact is, we are all highly interdependent upon one another for millions of things and reasons. If all of the economic links connecting us somehow miraculously shatter all at the same time, we're pretty much screwed no matter how much of whatever miracle hedge product we've socked away.

True. Referencing "primary practical drivers" factors that out, as practicality would likely take precedence during a mass upheaval.

An old friend of mine was a big Zero Hedge follower. Constantly talked about "reversion to the mean" and "fiat currency is a lie" and didn't pay his taxes for years because "stating a social security number is matter of freedom of speech".

He bought gold ounces and kept it in his house. Did not buy any stocks. Felt good during the 2000-2010 gold boom. Watched "Gold Rush" on TV. Etc...

Eventually, the IRS came knocking for back payment with penalties. Had to sell his gold and work lots of overtime and eat bologna sandwiches to avoid going to jail.

Needless to say, he learned an important lesson, but still listens to the quacks. Haven't talked to him in a while. I wonder if he's all in on cryptocurrency now. Certainly could have been a lot worse if his house was burglarized or burned down/tornado/etc. during the gold hoarding days.

Fear and loathing is expensive to maintain, but awfully profitable to sell.

LOL am literally finishing off a cherry cola Zeev right now. :p

Stock is bouncing off the doldrums and up 6.44% as of this millisecond, but I don't care. I'll wait until 2023 and beyond. Only have a tiny position and unlike PINS I actually understand how the money is made: I buy it, I drink it, I buy more. The end.

The Zeev Expanse

Ooooo don't forget Zevia tea! Quality is really good. I hope they can keep the quality high as they scale. It's nice to be from the south and enjoy a brewed tea which is not in a plastic bottle, not nuclear-syrup sweet, not sweetened with artificial crap, and actually tastes like TEA instead of a vaguely amber-tinted water solution, yanno?

(skip the lemon and passionfruit hibiscus... they're kinda bleh... we liked the raspberry, peach, green, and blood orange earl grey... and the plain black tea is fine, if basic)

Nah, people love liquid birthday cake. I certainly drank my share over the years. But maybe hedge that bet with some Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi too.

BROS getting the bump today! Glad I grabbed a little caffeine with that soda.

Inflation can work in your favor if you buy I-bonds from the US Treasury (treasurydirect.gov).

Max $10,000 purchase per person per calendar year.

Exempt from state income taxes.

Must hold for one year (or 11 months technically as below):

The fine print: “If you theoretically buy on October 31st, 2021 and sell on October 1st, 2022, you’ll earn a guaranteed ~3.87% annualized return for an 11-month holding period, for which the interest is also exempt from state income taxes.”

That’s a pretty good rate if you have some cash lying around for a year.

Very, very likely will be zero due to how high the following six-month inflation rate is. Still, nearly 4% guaranteed free of state tax isn’t too shabby for an 11-month piggy bank.

Have tax cuts ever paid for themselves as intended? Serious question… I haven’t done extensive research but the economists I follow do not think so.

I am a follower of Nick Hanauer's Pitchfork Economics. Self-made billionaire (early Amazon investor) and builder of other tech businesses. He routinely pours salt on the failed notion of trickle down economics, tax cuts which pay for themselves (argues they never do), popular financial myths, and among other things the importance of flushing the bottom of the income pyramid with cash to build up the entire economy vs. siphoning it off at the top only for those who are smart enough and well-connected to cover their tracks & hide income.

nick (resized).png

https://pitchforkeconomics.com/episodes/

Economics is very, very complicated. I do not claim to be an expert, nor maintain a one size fits all attitude when it comes to economic philosophy. Only an enthusiast. Carry on...

The "head for the hills" mentality certainly sells an awful lot of nutritional supplements, religious books, magic trinkets, dried beef, pails of protein powder, boomsticks, etc... and hey... where there's a market, there's an opportunity! Alas. Dumb dollars (and votes) spend the same as smart ones.

Today we are all so interconnected with one another there is no going back. Not without massive amounts of misery, sharp reductions in life expectancy, etc. Basically a harrowing, brutal, unpredictable, nightmarish existence.

"We're all in this together" ~Harry Tuttle

Oculus Quest 2 is an AMAZING piece of kit. I've shown it to numerous friends. Nearly everyone bought one afterward.

I now play Walkabout Mini Golf with friends in VR. We chat, we play golf, we marvel at the sights and sounds of the imminent future.

Fact: The real and virtual worlds are merging. The process has been underway for a long time, largely in parallel. But soon, fusion.

You used to go to your PC and use dialup modems. Then broadband. Then smartphones. Next, the glasses and AR navigation. Everyone will have a heads-up display.

No telling if FB or some other entity will rule this space... but it is most definitely coming in a most impressive way. I just hope all of this will be for the better.

Indeed. If Meta can retain its dominance of social media and engagement (other superficial ADHD-based platforms notwithstanding), it will be a simple matter of folding one's existing social network into "the next paradigm".

I am already playing games in VR space with real people I know, and the experience is miles ahead of anything else I've ever seen. Joining a "chat party" links your real voice to other players regardless of where they are... making it a seamless social experience. It keeps the connection active even while booting up a game, negotiating menus, browsing, updating software, etc. Very cool and convenient.

Metaverse communication is the difference between sitting at a typewriter vs. commanding the bridge of your own personal starship... going wherever you want, with whomever you want, holodecks and communications screens at the ready.

This is absolutely the future. Our phones are becoming glasses, and the metaverse is where it all plugs in. Ready Player One for real. Believe it.

If you think it can't/won't happen, it already is. The smartphone changed the landscape so profoundly we can hardly remember what life was like before it. The same will apply to this. A VAST paradigm shift awaits.

It may even have its own currency, culture, etc. We make our tools, and then our tools make us.

It is difficult to beat indexes because the pricing and selection analysis is already baked in, with little to no ongoing fees.

For every Amazon there are thousands of underperformers. It is easy to forget this when chasing momentary winners scattered across the landscape.

Regardless, it’s fun to speculate with spare cash and hey, you might nail a few! Or at least feel good about investing in things you believe in.

I gave a friend 1/6 Bitcoin several years ago as a birthday present. He still has it. Turned out to be the best birthday gift of all time… ha!

It’s always fun to talk about the big wins, but after the last couple of days…

FAD9FD05-E64B-43D4-BC07-4217265A5BF6 (resized).jpeg

Haha… don’t care. I wanna see this in 2023.

Thought we were on an upward trend after the IPO, but it’ll take time. Still see upward momentum, more sales per store, stores carrying, etc… so hmmm. I guess someone at Wells Fargo doesn’t like stevia? *shrug*

*pop*

Best way to deal with impatience is to buy more individual stocks rather than repeatedly betting the house chasing (losing) gains on a few big bets.

Every month I buy a few hundred of something new. Keeps me entertained and not feeling like I’m missing out.

Today is a great example of “flight to safety”. The big guys are rallying and carrying the indexes with them.

The rest? *boom*… ugly. Well, at least MAC and GRN are still pushing forward.

The big winners lift the whole ocean. Miss them, and you might drown. Yeesh.

Investing in metaverse-things today is a bit like picking "who will be the internet" in 1996. Wasn't possible then.

It wasn't Netscape or Lycos or Altavista or TheGlobe or Webvan or Pets or Give or many other ambitious startups. Meanwhile, many existing titans were correspondingly taken down in the process of failing to adapt (ToysRUs, Circuit City, etc). Yet somehow all of those existing concepts and sales channels never went away once Google, Facebook, and Amazon comprised 95% of the momentum.

Today it seems like we have little choice but to take a shotgun approach and seed multiple upstarts in the hope that one of them will hit it big.

I would expect Microsoft, Google, Facebook, or some other existing enterprise might have a better than average shot of capturing the metaverse momentum since they depend upon making nimble technological pivots. Like when Microsoft pirouetted perfectly in time with IE 3.0 and leapt into a world which, had they stuck to enterprise and desktops alone, might be only a niche enterprise player today.

Also keep in mind the interface of the internet was PROFOUNDLY altered with the advent of the smartphone and particularly the iPhone. Seriously, keep that in mind. Before the smartphone we were still Internet v1.0 until the interface was upgraded. Businesses like Uber, DoorDash, etc. wouldn't even have been possible nor would Facebook, Snap, TikTok had an opportunity to gain the explosive growth they did. Not to mention our society becoming so highly image focused with a camera now in every pocket.

So... we are still awaiting our i-Vision glasses to give the metaverse the heads-up display it needs to truly explode. Google Glasses and the Snapchat Spectacles have thus far come the closest to a wearable everyday interface vs. "portable worlds" like the Oculus Quest 2. Surely, we are headed toward a fusion somewhere between the two... something light, wearable, and blends into our everyday life which can be commanded with hand gestures and voice.

Right now I play Walkabout Mini Golf with friends at least twice a week via my Oculus Quest 2. Every time I play it, I am still awed by its "simple yet extraordinary" next-level experience which feels exactly like the exciting early stages of other paradigm shifts (Commodore 64, desktop PC, smartphone, etc).

It'll be big. Real big. But the interface will be the rocket fuel... and we don't have it yet. Whatever it is, it will largely replace our phones. That will be the tipping point. Watch for the players who might nudge us there. As well as new businesses which could leverage the format in a way phones cannot.

Regarding crypto... I have zero interest in it until I can buy a loaf of bread from the grocery store. We have to remember the metaverse is still the provenance of the privileged driven by billions in R&D. Kind of like owning a briefcase cell phone in 1987.

I know crypto can be converted into credit, but credit is still the currency (USD). What I mean is paying with crypto directly.

Kinda energy related: GRN (carbon ETN) has been steadily gaining for a while. Low trading volume but what the heck bought some earlier in the year. Has been gaining rather steadily... banking upon future carbon offsets being worth more, maybe?

https://www.ipathetn.com/US/16/en/details.app?instrumentId=369782

Sad that our economy can so easily make profits while cutting out our workforce. Not a recipe for long-term stability.

Employers have steadily decoupled themselves from pensions and unions and healthcare as much as possible over the past several decades… which is exactly what they want. Yet we still have voters who vote against funding a sufficient tax base to replace what was lost, but still want the magical benefits.

Either business or government has to take up the slack. Period.

If business won’t do it, tax them. If business will do it, cut taxes. But it seems we’ve done both… cut taxes for companies while letting them push the burden onto government, then their lobbyists and politicians blame the government.

Everyone needs healthcare, not just those sitting upon a favorable life raft.

Geez… already doubled my money on GRN and still on a tear. Where is it all headed?

Of course it could all evaporate in a milllisecond if emissions policies change course or some legal loophole-thing arises. Who knows. But can’t deny the general rebound today. Even poor old Zevia has been bouncing back… their PBC director just doubled their personal stake. Guess that is a decent vote of confidence.

Today = blech

Happy 2022 y'all! You know... since the Millennial generation is so much larger than Gen X, it could bring a rising tide of investment inflows which lifts all of our boats...

...as long as we haven't melted the atmosphere by then. :/

Negating carbon is now an extremely critical priority. Natural gas isn't an ideal solution toward that end, but at least it will provide a bridge to sustainable fuel in the future and is far less damaging than coal or oil by every measure.

To that end I am adding dividend-producing companies which transfer, compress, trade, and store natural gas. Other countries will be importing increasing quantities of liquid compressed natural gas from us. Market will grow in the short and mid-term.

Added Kinder Morgan (KMI - 6.81% yield) and DCP Midstream (DCP - 5.53% yield)

As consumers we can buy electric cars, call our power companies to switch to a 100% green plan (have you done this yet?), convert to LED lights & efficient appliances, and opt for electric vs. gas/oil heating if there is a choice.

The recent PIMA podcast with none other than "the" John Doerr was intensely sobering, but also interesting from an investment standpoint... https://freakonomics.com/podcast/what-is-john-doerrs-plan-to-save-the-planet/

Thanks mon... will add some after the next batch of funds roll in.

LOL poor ol' Zeev. Great product and growth potential, but yeesh... maybe 2022 will be nicer to the stock price. Oh well. So it goes with speculative buys.

I feel bad for the newbies who rushed in to buy Gamestop at 300+ and AMC at near 60. Will they ever recoup it?

True. Command of shelf space, logistical advantages, economy of scale, powerful marketing... drinks are *extremely* profitable and the big boys want to keep it that way for themselves.

Coke is to soda what Facebook is to companies like Snapchat. If they can't buy them out, they'll try to copy and bury them.

Thing is, primary growth in the carbonated beverage market is trending healthier and more sustainable. The millennial factor maybe? Growing awareness of blood glucose and overall health?

I stopped drinking traditional sodas a long time ago because they are basically liquid birthday cake. Traditional soda has been the main contributor to diabetes and obesity for decades. I don't like artificial sweeteners either, so Zevia it is. No plastic, no artificial stuff, fun to drink, isn't sticky and won't stain when spilled, doesn't spike blood sugar or insulin... all pretty darn awesome but is 2x-3x the cost of a mass-market can of corn sugar. At least for now.

If Coke ever releases a 100% stevia product that tastes awesome and is super affordable, Zevia is doomed. But why would they bother? Trying to squash a smaller rival at the expense of diluting the brand with a pricier product and losing ground to the other big boys? Nah. Too much money in the mainstream at stake. They're permanently locked in to the McSoda business model.

However, the mainstream is changing. Not quickly, but it is happening. So who knows? Amazon took a 90% haircut in the early days, and Netflix was never expected to threaten let alone overtake Blockbuster.

I'm just glad to own a tiny piece of a company I like. But yeah, from a purely financial standpoint, these first few months after the IPO have been rather disappointing. Initially up over 30%, now down 43%. Meh... whatever. Zevia is carving out a nice niche with a decent growth curve and no significant rivals as of yet. So, I guess I'll go have one now. *barp*

It *was* in test markets, but that article is 3 1/2 years old. What happened? Coca-Cola 100% stevia wasn't selling.

Why not? Maybe they couldn't get the taste right. Or maybe because sugar is addictive and stevia isn't.

https://xtalks.com/what-ever-happened-to-coke-with-stevia-2667/

I was initially excited to see that product but was very disappointed after discovering 2/3 of the total sweetener was still liquid corn syrup. Total head-fake. "It has the stevia! It's good!"

Same ploy Ocean Spray tried when everyone was going to 100% juice... they put a huge "100%" on their labels with a smaller (of daily recommended vitamin C, etc.) underneath. Effing sugar barons.

Coke Life Stevia had 24g of added sugar. That is a lot. Current recommended maximum daily intake for men is 36g.

When all else fails, add booze!

ESG (environmental, social, governance) investing strives to put the money into the good things. I've got a portion in ESG funds.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/esg

Newsletters are an easy scam. Decades old, as used in sports betting. Launch 50 newsletters with different names, each betting in a different direction, and delete the ones which fail. Sell the ongoing winners as if possessing some kind of magic predicting formula until the odds inevitably wipe them out. Repeat.

Example: Brinker's newsletter (at the time, a fairly respected one) called for a bull run May 2008. Pretty bad timing, right? Assured concerned buyers "our economic health correcting measurements" were all on target... and, surprise surprise, those nebulous "health measurements" were never explained in clear, concise detail. Which is why so much of the language used in these newsletters is always short-term perspectives mixed with optimistic emotional jargon as if broadcasting straight from a Qanon forum...

"Overseas HKTPS logistics sevenfold witching over Q3 breakpoint! Evenfold payback! FOLLOW the SAUCE! BIG EXPO for 2024 hamburger mountain doughboy landscape!!!+++"

Why follow this?

My ex-stepfather's brother, CEO of Campbell's Soup at the time, once remarked how stock picking is literally the easiest job in the world in the American economy due to the strong tailwinds: (to paraphrase) "Picking hot stocks requires no formal training whatsoever unlike that of a legal scholar, neurosurgeon, or HVAC technician. For many, it is no more than pressing a magic button or rolling the dice."

It also helps a lot when one inherits/starts with $$,$$$,$$$ to invest in the first place... obviously. Just dive in and buy whatever.

Most people can pick at least one good company they understand and believe in, but even with financial knowledge they rarely determine the absolute perfect time to buy or sell the stock. Nor transact multiples of such stocks over time, at the right times, in a consistent way which beats the indexes and financial institutions bankrolling tens of thousands of obsessive analysts.

A little gambling is fine, but seriously, if an investment can't be explained relatively quickly and easily, don't do it.

Financial management is confusing for most people. When people are confused, they turn to their peers for advice. Is talking bad?

jwilson isn't wrong for pointing out the failure of the crowd favorites here. In fact, the very first topic in this thread was about shorting "the oversold DIJA", which, as you can see today, would have been a rather disastrous strategy if followed. Similarly, Tesla was dismissed as a ponzi scheme, etc. I would think a person's track record should be a factor if their credentials are staked upon past results, no? Who is doing the research? Who is cheerleading? Who is only curious?

Sure, doing the fundamentals is important, but too much tunnel vision can also lead down a dead-end. A friend of mine bought crypto for pennies on the dollar and cashed out big. Mostly because of talking in online forums, not sticking his nose in corporate annual statements and spreadsheets. In fact, most of the time, the big new opportunities are well off the radar before they gain serious momentum.

Research is essential, but discussion is also a part of it. Yes, sometimes even in pinball forums.

Strategy for 2022 is beef, bitcoin, and energy?!? If ever there was a "let's hasten climate change ASAP" portfolio, that might be the one.

Yep pardon... missed the acronym, but cattle investing would certainly be on-trend for boosting carbon emissions with that other stuff. Crypto mining uses more power than several countries (not to mention astronomical carbon and E-waste), yet everyone is super excited about it and only wants more. Meanwhile... man, we are so screwed.

It's going to take a level of effort greater than WWII to meet the 1.5c threshold. As in World War II, the whole entire thing. We're not seeing anything close to that. Not from government, not business, not investing.

I can't even get my Facebook acquaintances to call their local power company to switch to a 100% renewable plan for a measly $1.83 per month. It is literally the easiest armchair no-effort action possible for us rich fat Americans to take. Instead, I see replies about "blah blah windmills and solar aren't perfect China landfill birds conspiracy whatever more stuff more money"

Not good. Not good at all.

My power provider is AEP. 100% wind and hydroelectric. First bill increased by $1.83. Subsequent bills have been correspondingly low.

See what is available in your area and make a difference if it is within your power to do so.

If it reduces carbon and methane emissions, is a healthier option, reduces needless animal suffering, and still tastes good… well sheeit pardner that sounds pretty darn awesome wouldn’t you say?

Brilliant article. Crypto has had a good run, but it cannot last. Not this way.

So, socialism or whatever aside, nothing that was actually written entered the thought process?

Reminds me of a friend who once said, “Yanno what they eat in Japan? Whale anus. Whale. Anus. I’m sure as hell never going there.”

Japan? Whale anus. The end.

They’ve already been doing that for a long time. “Computer based performance management” measures keystrokes, frequency, surreptitious webcam snooping, etc.

Zuckerberg has made some rather big mistakes with Facebook, but I admire his drive and commitment to visionary thinking cost-what-it-may.

Oculus Quest 2 is an incredible playground which lives in my suitcase. I can open it up and go anywhere with my pals to play ping pong, mini-golf, exercise, duel with light sabers, and chat about what's happening in our worlds. Or anything else imaginable to a degree which makes console gaming by comparison feel like playing Pac-Man on your wristwatch.

OC2 is the first interactive no-fuss playground which finally feels like a true portal into a digital consciousness. It is fast becoming the world promised to me since TRON 1982. Immensely exciting!

But that's always how it is at the beginning. I've been riding the early tide of personal computers, gaming systems, BBS'es, multimedia, hypertext ("hypermedia"), VR, internet, and ecommerce all at the early-adoption phase. The beginning is always the most exciting. It's happening now.

Agree, however, that whatever "the meta" becomes may not be under the control of a single company or resemble anything like what we are doing right now. But hey, life is short, and this is cool s**t. Might as well dive in.

Nobody knows the future, so dollar cost average through the end of 2022 into your preferred risk blend of income vs. equity.

Maybe 80% ETF/mutual diversified and 20% single-stock speculative buys if you're feeling especially lucky. It's quite difficult to beat the quants over a long period of time.

Might get bumpy, but perhaps no need to run for the hills…

https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/will-a-single-rate-hike-kill-the-bull-market

Speaking of (green) energy, I'm pretty darn happy with GRN since Jan 21... now 300% of where it was. Which has even destroyed the energy sector's leading gains to my amazement. Perhaps because some governments and industries are being required to buy so many carbon offset credits.

No idea where this is heading. Changes in policy might suddenly derail it... who knows. But a fun speculative play which feels good to participate in.

grn (resized).png

Same here except for goofy ol’ Zeev which has been on a tear since Jan 1… although still below IPO price.

Seems more correlated with the VIX than not. Every down day for stocks it goes up, and many up days it is flat or falls. Bizarre.

B935254C-22A5-48F0-A450-A8B4303E4E01 (resized).jpeg

B8DACBB3-83B4-4B14-AA8F-D45FF029FD46 (resized).jpeg

Departed GRN and took profits. 58% ain't bad. Ukraine invasion seems to have spooked carbon offsets a bit...?

The safety of BRKB has weathered the choppy markets well since Thanksgiving. 12% not too shabby.

Malls and casinos MAC and LVS just noodling around as usual. Waiting for summer to see if any momentum finally breaks.

Pinside pick CRM... -30% yeesh but I like the company so just sitting on it.

As for personal pick ZVIA? Woof. -54% since purchase. Was having a nice run until 2021 Q4 results. Haha... whatever. Still don't care. I drink it, I own it.

Strangely, the cost of paper supplies and packaging at a local ice cream shop went down about 30% this month. No idea why.

Not that this is a significant leading indicator… just interesting to hear that today when everything else has gone up.

What will the bubble be this time? Tech? Real estate again? Or maybe pinball?

Fartmarket. Geez.

Ran to relative safety a few months ago with Berkshire B… now feeling pretty good about it.

Thankfully my passive investment strategy represents the vast majority of my holdings, so no worries. I’m in the big boat with the rest of y’all. Hopefully not the Titanic.

Tip: If you’d like to use inflation to your advantage and lock up a maximum $10,000 (or $20,000 for couples) for a guaranteed 6.5% APR over 11 months (sell April 1, 2023)… then visit treasurydirect.gov to load up on I-bonds before the end of April.

Another bonus: Free from state income tax.

Extra bonus: If you hold them until July 1, 2023… you’ll earn 7.2% APR for those 14 months.

(note these figures should have the 3-month interest penalty already factored in, so this is pretty much the actual amount you will earn)

Truth. Just posting worst-case scenarios for the impatient.

I was only quoting what has been published thus far. Rates are expected to go up maybe .5% or even .75%... if so it may benefit to wait until May.

If you decide to wait, you can delay until May 31 and will still get credit for "all of May" when cashing in. That's how to shave one month off the 12-month minimum term.

One more thought about buying I-Bonds from Uncle Sam before the end of April…

7.12% for 6 months + 9.62% for 6 months + ??? for 6 months

Waiting until May:

9.62% for 6 months + ??? for 6 months + ???? for 6 months

The rate is set every six months. Might be better to lock in a healthy confirmed APR now vs. hoping it will repeat or increase over the coming months.

The crap-fest continues. Prices going up, stocks going down. Pee-yew!

Oh well, I’ll just keep fixing my games and enjoying life. Market will market. *shrug* at least we are crushing it at the pinball museum.

Love Visual Capitalist... so many colorful (and damn sobering) charts!

One thing stands out: America rocks! Not perfect, but rich and free and always improving the recipe.

Bought into some SPXL today.

Perfect timing? Perfect amount? Nobody knows. America is still a good bet... so I'll buy some.

Yeesh. What a frightening concept.

The Great Recession kneecapped the middle class as I had known it, but didn’t completely break it. I don’t think the current downturn will do that either… but it may be the harbinger of what eventually will.

Housing is the true curtain call. 95% of middle class wealth is represented there. LLC’s and corporations are buying them up or outright BTR (build to rent)… effectively creating McNeighborhoods like so many Walmarts and conglomerates have transformed the retail landscape. Look out.

Eventually, the only option may be to “rent the American Dream”. Which would make capitalism a pretty hard sell if people can’t accumulate much capital, eh?

And that will really bring out the pitchforks… in which we all lose.

The health of a nation is directly measurable by the size and wealth of its middle class.

Man, I sure hope so. Staying put and waiting for the tide to roll in again.